Search found 551 matches

by RoganJosh
Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:35 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: How often do games draw?
Replies: 76
Views: 10081

Re: How often do games draw?

What do you mean, there was no stalemate line? You were stopped at the stalemate line in 1909.
by RoganJosh
Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:08 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: How often do games draw?
Replies: 76
Views: 10081

Re: How often do games draw?

It's interesting to compare this discussion whit what Calhamer wrote. http://www.diplomacy-archive.com/resources/calhamer/objectives.htm The assumption behind the 18 centre victory criterion is that, given 18 units to a disunited combination of only 16 units, the leader can in general eventually con...
by RoganJosh
Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:58 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: US authoritarianism
Replies: 155
Views: 13340

Re: US authoritarianism

Still, I'm glad you've finally reached the conclusion that a coup isn't going to happen. If you can eventually grasp that it was never going to happen you might actually get close enough to reality to be worth listening to. I don't think anyone ever claimed here that they thought the coup attempt w...
by RoganJosh
Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:44 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: US authoritarianism
Replies: 155
Views: 13340

Re: US authoritarianism

That something fails, doesn't mean it wasn't attempted. Besides, I don't think anyone here believes Trump will succeed in overturning the election. Honestly, if the only thing you've got is an assertion that Biden will be president on January 20th, then you never understood what the discussion was a...
by RoganJosh
Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:09 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: I'm terrible at gunboat - any mentors out there?
Replies: 11
Views: 3190

Re: I'm terrible at gunboat - any mentors out there?

If there's something that's really missing from today's online environment, then it's the post-mortem / AAR / EOG. I wonder if we could do something to bring them back.
by RoganJosh
Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:06 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: US authoritarianism
Replies: 155
Views: 13340

Re: US authoritarianism

Oct has a lot of assertions. And he's the master of bothsiderisms. But never any arguments.
by RoganJosh
Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:55 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Gunboat Stats
Replies: 21
Views: 4203

Re: Gunboat Stats

Pot size, though. DSS and 101+ pot => 66% draws.

The file is only 8MB large, I'll PM you a link.
by RoganJosh
Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:30 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Gunboat Stats
Replies: 21
Views: 4203

Re: Gunboat Stats

Well, the median pot is zero for all common openings except for a few French ones. You can see that from the pie chart on the Standard Openings tab. These distributions are not standard, so it's not obvious what statistics to show.
by RoganJosh
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:03 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Gunboat Stats
Replies: 21
Views: 4203

Re: Gunboat Stats

One thing I couldn't find is a breakdown of how often the different powers make it into draws. I think that would be interesting too. I added a 'Results by Power' tab, where you now can see such things. One more interesting thing: The decrease in number of games is almost entirely a decrease in liv...
by RoganJosh
Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:43 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Gunboat Stats
Replies: 21
Views: 4203

Re: Gunboat Stats

Is there any way to find which games had a particular opening? For instance, the highest pot opening for Germany is Ber-Sil, Mun-Ruhr, Kie-Bal. Only 5 games were played with this opening, and I'd like to see how Germany followed up on it. Yes - the tab called "Compare Openings". Maybe it need anoth...
by RoganJosh
Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:30 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Happy New Year!
Replies: 1
Views: 2515

Re: Happy New Year!

Happy new year!
by RoganJosh
Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Gunboat Stats
Replies: 21
Views: 4203

Re: Gunboat Stats

I added a panel where you consider only one opening of one power, and where you can compare how it fares against the standard openings of a second power of your choice.
by RoganJosh
Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: How often do games draw?
Replies: 76
Views: 10081

Re: How often do games draw?

Yeah, I think that whittle was 100% safe. Not sure I'd even categorize it as a whittle. Italy never backed off, and you didn't need F to complete the stalemate line.
by RoganJosh
Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Gunboat Stats
Replies: 21
Views: 4203

Re: Gunboat Stats

Perhaps the most notable are the success of Russias who move to Finland (maybe they get Sweden more?) This was surprising to me too. I always thought Fin was weak because you can't threaten BAL if G decides to bounce. For comparison, here's analysis that Tru Ninja did a while ago for full press gam...
by RoganJosh
Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Gunboat Stats
Replies: 21
Views: 4203

Re: Gunboat Stats

One highlight: If you rank powers by average share of the pot for all games, then you get: Turkey .196 France .183 Germany .153 Italy .131 England .128 Russia .108 Austria .100 And if you filter by games who's pot size was at least 701 (i.e., at least a bet of 101) and that was played during the las...
by RoganJosh
Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Gunboat Stats
Replies: 21
Views: 4203

Gunboat Stats

In case anybody is interested: https://public.tableau.com/profile/jens.forsgaard#!/vizhome/GunboatDiplomacyOpeningDatabase/Overview Based on 15k games from webDip. There's plenty to click around and explore. Let me know if something is missing, or if something isn't working. This is just a prelimina...
by RoganJosh
Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: How often do games draw?
Replies: 76
Views: 10081

Re: How often do games draw?

Can you link me to a concrete example of a specific match in which you believe a player non-rationally whittled (or attempted to whittle) the draw? "Non-rational" are your words, not mine. I'm not accusing anyone of being non-rational. Examples are always judged in hindsight. But any game where at ...
by RoganJosh
Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:39 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: How often do games draw?
Replies: 76
Views: 10081

Re: How often do games draw?

First, there may not be one clear solo contender just because the match has reached stalemate positions. There could be two, or there could be alliances that have stalemated each other. This is a completely different scenario and nothing I've said refers to this scenario. If you still have a shot a...
by RoganJosh
Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: How often do games draw?
Replies: 76
Views: 10081

Re: How often do games draw?

@jasnah We're definitely in agreement on most things. But I do think your point is somewhat strange. My guess is that you have a FTF background, and that you're conflating the FTF DSS meta with the online DSS meta. I might be completely wrong, in which case you'll have to forgive me. I’m very happy ...
by RoganJosh
Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:22 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: How often do games draw?
Replies: 76
Views: 10081

Re: How often do games draw?

Plenty of players cooperate to eliminate a rival just to continue the match and see what happens next—or even as part of a strategy to get a solo win. You're taking the viewpoint of the solo contender. And for the solo contender it's of course a "feature": they get a second shot at the solo with no...