Search found 2723 matches

by Octavious
Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:08 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

What words do you find unfair? I won't insult your intelligence by pretending you don't know that a defeat for Putin in this will make his position untenable and mark the end of the Putin regime. The "Western sponsored" bit seems to be exactly what you're describing, so you can't object to that. Wha...
by Octavious
Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:35 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

Funny how the world works, isn't it? Only a few months ago you were randomly accusingly me of being an imperialist, and yet now we find ourselves with you calling for a Western sponsored regime change in the Russian Federation :shock:
by Octavious
Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:43 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

In terms of Russian capability, we've seen bad Russia but not yet evil and desperate Russia. There are an impressive array of options that Russia have so far refrained from using. We know (or as close to knowing as anyone ever gets) , for example, that Russia has an extremely effective cyber warfare...
by Octavious
Thu Mar 17, 2022 4:46 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

My guess is within a couple of weeks. Hopefully well within. If it goes on much beyond that you start to leave behind the window where both sides can strike a deal that they can sell as a win, and move instead to a scenario where one side will be have to concede defeat. Which means a lot more war, a...
by Octavious
Wed Mar 16, 2022 6:43 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: End Game

There are no guarantees, but the signs are all pointing to it. The BBC's John Simpson was saying today how he reckoned that the reason behind Zelensky's constant pushing for a no fly zone was not to actually get one (as he knows full well that it's impossible), but instead so that he use the refusal...
by Octavious
Wed Mar 16, 2022 7:06 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

End Game

So, we're getting into the nitty gritty of the negotiations now, and the end of the war is hopefully not far off. Zelenskyy has conceded that Ukraine will never join NATO, so that's a key Russian demand ticked off and a step in the right direction. So what else needs doing? It's worth having a look ...
by Octavious
Tue Mar 15, 2022 9:54 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

An alternative view

Sources of news from Russia itself are hard to find these days, with the EU imposing a media blackout on the traditional Russian news channels. As much as these sources are biased, and rather more so than in Western media, they did provide an interesting insight into what the Russians actually belie...
by Octavious
Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:40 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

The problem with the "Russia's plans have failed" narrative, ora, is that it relies upon the stupidity of the enemy. And whenever you start by assuming the enemy is stupid, be it in international politics or a game of diplomacy or anywhere in between, you deserve everything you get. When you start b...
by Octavious
Sat Mar 12, 2022 9:59 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

US and Europe will not be able to stay away. Putin lacks now soldiers, so he is ready to arm ISIS, SYRIA, IRAN troops for the war in Ukraine. This means that terrorists will regain access to weapons. And in this case we are not too far from September, 11, 2001 again. If Baiden is not ready to comba...
by Octavious
Fri Mar 11, 2022 5:11 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

Pretty sure i linked several discussions above. His objective was to decapitate the Ukrainian leadership and take the capital on a 'special operation' without being bogged down for weeks in an actual war. See also his rapid victory in Georgia in 2008, or his rapid victory in Ukraine+Crimea in 2014....
by Octavious
Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:45 pm
Forum: Tournaments
Topic: For those of you who speak French
Replies: 2
Views: 465

Re: For those of you who speak French

Zut alors! Bonsoir mes amis. Liberté, égalité, fraternité, où est la gare s'il vous plaît? Frère Jacques, dormez vous? Ding ding dong merde la musique pop aller à la plage. Aside from a few hundred words dedicated to having affairs I think that's pretty much the entire French language covered. Every...
by Octavious
Tue Mar 08, 2022 10:33 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

Russia gaining legitimacy would remove the justification for sanctions Gaining legitimacy in what sense? Putin gaining a victory while giving him time to analyze why his 'blitzkreig' failed What makes you think Putin's plans failed? that would make the West appear weak in his eyes. The West is weak...
by Octavious
Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:31 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

"Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states." My guess is that Putin would be willing to sett...
by Octavious
Mon Mar 07, 2022 1:06 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

@Oct: any change in prediction for the Russian invasion? Nope. Everything thus far has been pretty much exactly as anticipated. The realisation that no decisive help is coming from NATO should be sinking in to the Ukrainian leadership by now. And the consequences of continuing to fight on continue ...
by Octavious
Mon Mar 07, 2022 6:42 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

As an aside, has it been widely reported in the US media that Ukraine have shot one their own negotiating team for treason? Not by any of the mainstream media. Seems to be conflicting reports of how and why he was killed. Indeed so, which in many respects is to be expected. What is very much not to...
by Octavious
Sun Mar 06, 2022 3:46 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

As an aside, has it been widely reported in the US media that Ukraine have shot one their own negotiating team for treason?
by Octavious
Sun Mar 06, 2022 9:09 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

Chernobyl was a long time ago. You'd imagine that knowledge of how to run plants has improved somewhat. But I wasn't thinking in terms of a risk of another Chernobyl, which I think is pretty negligible, but mostly the risk of people freezing to death etc etc because there's no one around to run the ...
by Octavious
Sat Mar 05, 2022 3:08 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Rulebook Press
Replies: 24
Views: 1375

Re: Rulebook Press

Fairness would be an unfortunate habit for a Diplomacy player to adopt ;) Live games still give you more time for actual diplomacy, truth be told. To much time in ftf is taken up by trying to find somewhere to have a conversation and in the competition to get a good look at the map without making it...
by Octavious
Fri Mar 04, 2022 4:48 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Rulebook Press
Replies: 24
Views: 1375

Re: Rulebook Press

Ftf is indeed somewhat different from online diplomacy. Due to time constraints the game is very rarely about a titanic struggle for the solo, and more a race to get as many centres as you can before someone has to go home and have dinner. Different skills are required for the game. Whereas online d...
by Octavious
Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:44 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: War, what is it good for?
Replies: 199
Views: 3807

Re: War, what is it good for?

I suspect that the nuclear plant is one of those stories that looks a lot bigger than what it is. Clearly a plant that supplies 1/4 of Ukraine's energy is a major strategic objective. Shelling it seems to me little more than Russia continuing with its strategy of whispering "nuclear" as often as pos...