Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

by **Octavious** » Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:10 am

+ Assad is on the verge of achieving complete victory in Syria
This is news to me. He is winning, but complete victory seems rather distant. We have reached the stage where rebel groups are beginning to accept that they can't win, and will sue for peace. Their negotiation position will be vastly different if "no deal" means months or years of terrible door to door fighting, to what it would be if Assad could use chemical weapons to flush them out.

+ Suddenly a mysterious chemical attack happens and gets blamed on Assad
At a time when western resolve in the region appears to reach a new low Assad launches a chemical weapons strike.

+ The West launches surgical strikes on Syria which don't do anything too damaging to Syria but set them back
Yes. The degree to how much they were set back is a matter of debate.

+ The rebels who were on the verge of being crushed are given breathing room to survive and fight another day
I refer you to my first answer.

by **President Eden** » Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:35 am

Octavious wrote: ↑
Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:53 pm
Again, why do you think Assad must be stupid to use chemical weapons? The benefits are obvious. City fighting using conventional methods is notoriously difficult, slow, and costly. City fighting using chemical weapons is far swifter without the risk of demoralizing and costly heavily losses. If you don't care about the humanitarian aspect it's extremely tempting. It's also a great deterrent to future rebellions.

The only downside from Assad's point of view is Western reaction. He has Russia at his back so he's confident there will be no major attack. He will be imprisoned for life if he ever steps foot in the West already, so he doesn't give a damn about any personal sanctions. Trump was making noises about leaving Syria to its fate only days before, so he calculates there's a damned good chance he will get away with it, and if so he will be free to use the weapons for the remainder of the war.

As it turns out the West makes a token gesture. Enough to persuade Assad not to try it again, if we're lucky, but nothing to cause him any great inconvenience.

Assad to a calculated risk for a potentially significant reward. He didn't win, but he didn't lose much either. So explain to me why, assuming this is what happened, it makes him an idiot?

Both attacks have followed the same pattern:

+ Assad is on the verge of achieving complete victory in Syria
+ Suddenly a mysterious chemical attack happens and gets blamed on Assad
+ The West launches surgical strikes on Syria which don't do anything too damaging to Syria but set them back
+ The rebels who were on the verge of being crushed are given breathing room to survive and fight another day

He didn't need to use them and the Western response crippling his assets is extremely predictable. You could possibly argue that it wasn't predictable in 2017, if Assad believed Trump would fold like Obama did on the "red line," but that was clearly proven wrong. Doing it again in the same circumstances against his incentives is unbelievably suspect. I'd call it sloppy work by the perpetrators, but it's clearly working just fine, since the general public in the West is none the wiser.

by **leon1122** » Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:33 am

Exactly. Octavious says that conventional fighting is slow and costly, but this war has already dragged on for I think 7 years, so what's a few more extra months?

by **Fluminator** » Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:56 am

If he's publicly claiming he didn't do them, it kind of ruins the point of instilling fear into the rebels doesn't it?

The point that it's easier to deal with the rebels has merit, but the rebels had already lost and were retreating so again, seems a little odd he uses it at that point. I'd see a lot more motive for him if the war had no end in sight.

by **Octavious** » Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:53 pm

Again, why do you think Assad must be stupid to use chemical weapons? The benefits are obvious. City fighting using conventional methods is notoriously difficult, slow, and costly. City fighting using chemical weapons is far swifter without the risk of demoralizing and costly heavily losses. If you don't care about the humanitarian aspect it's extremely tempting. It's also a great deterrent to future rebellions.

The only downside from Assad's point of view is Western reaction. He has Russia at his back so he's confident there will be no major attack. He will be imprisoned for life if he ever steps foot in the West already, so he doesn't give a damn about any personal sanctions. Trump was making noises about leaving Syria to its fate only days before, so he calculates there's a damned good chance he will get away with it, and if so he will be free to use the weapons for the remainder of the war.

As it turns out the West makes a token gesture. Enough to persuade Assad not to try it again, if we're lucky, but nothing to cause him any great inconvenience.

Assad to a calculated risk for a potentially significant reward. He didn't win, but he didn't lose much either. So explain to me why, assuming this is what happened, it makes him an idiot?

by **alexintour** » Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:23 pm

goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:34 pm
Okay, Flum. Please present your evidence it wasn't Assad.

ehm... from what I know from some TV series, first we have to have a good accusation, and then a defense.
I mean if I say you have some cocaine in your house, that's my problem to first obtain an order from a judge based on some real evidence. And then, you can defend yourself.
Here is different, first we have someone saying there was a chemical attack, then we have the reaction with some missile and only after it we discover that someone is still trying to verify if there even was a chemical attack.

You can think everything about Assad, but he's not stupid. He is still there after many years of civil war and why on earth would he use chemical weapons in a city almost freed from terrorists? Please don't say because he wants to seem strong. He can do this later...

Fluminator wrote: ↑
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:22 pm
How many wars on false pretenses does America need to start before Americans start doubting their government's excuses to blow up the middle east?

The next one will be always the penultimate.
As Colin Powell said at the UN with a test tube full of white powder: -"Remember the Maine! To hell with Syria."

by **Sweeny** » Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:41 am

This strike was cleared with the Russians well in advance.

Nothing was really damaged. Three people are reported dead. That is barely even possible in a missile strike on a city. No mission critical Syrian assets were even scratched.

The Russian response was non existent. No antimissile elements were deployed. Everyone buttoned down nice and cozy like for a thunderstorm they saw coming the day before on radar.

The timing was perfect for distracting from Trumps mind boggling legal problems. It is obvious that Trump cleared this Potemkin charade with Putin first.

by **leon1122** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:07 pm

Holy shit! Russia predicted the false flag attack 3 weeks in advance!
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/984088307507388418

It also appears that the chemical attack from last year still has no evidence
http://www.newsweek.com/now-mattis-admi ... ple-801542

Further proof that the US is just itching for an excuse to go to war.

by **leon1122** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:58 pm

Octavious wrote: ↑
Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:47 pm

Fluminator wrote: ↑
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:28 pm
Did we learn nothing from Libya? Afghanistan? Iraq? So many others?
What do you learn, Flum?

In Iraq we went all in and shit happened
In Libya we heavily supported rebel groups and shit happened
In Syria we largely stood back and left them to it and shit happened

Aside from shit happens, what is the lesson?

In Syria, we stood back, Assad is regaining control over his country, potentially bringing stability back to the region. It don't classify that as "shit". It's the best outcome we can hope for.

by **Octavious** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:47 pm

Fluminator wrote: ↑
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:28 pm
Did we learn nothing from Libya? Afghanistan? Iraq? So many others?

What do you learn, Flum?

In Iraq we went all in and shit happened
In Libya we heavily supported rebel groups and shit happened
In Syria we largely stood back and left them to it and shit happened

Aside from shit happens, what is the lesson?

by **leon1122** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:43 pm

goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑
Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:45 am
Surely you must at least admit to that. Now, ask yourself. Are those assumptions 1) Less numerous and 2) More believable than the alternative theory that Assad did it, and then planted stockpiles of chemical weapons once they controlled the territory so they could blame it on the rebels.

They sure are, and if you can’t see that, then I can only assume, like Fluminator, that you’re blinded by blind patriotism.

by **Fluminator** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:35 pm

I just felt like ranting. I can post a more reasonable argument when I'm at a computer lol.

by **Fluminator** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:34 pm

The last year's chemical attack they blamed on Assad ironically had no evidence as well upon closer investigation. Why are they rushing in so quick this time when countries like Canada, Germany, and others were asking for more of an investigation? They were wrong last time. Maybe they're wrong this time?

by **goldfinger0303** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:34 pm

Okay, Flum. Please present your evidence it wasn't Assad.

by **Fluminator** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:28 pm

Did we learn nothing from Libya? Afghanistan? Iraq? So many others?

Next Assad will be "taking the babies from their incubators" then the war will be really justified.

by **Fluminator** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:26 pm

Not surprised to see Ogion supporting his warmongering government blindly. Typical leftist.

by **Fluminator** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:22 pm

I haven't read the thread but if anyone looks at all the evidence and motives and such, and thinks Assad was behind this are either stupid or blinded by American Patriotism in my personal opinion. How many wars on false pretenses does America need to start before Americans start doubting their government's excuses to blow up the middle east?

by **Dejan0707** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:04 am

If GB/USA/F has chosen 3-4 mid level players on the site I am sure they would stage this chemical attack in smarter way. Someone should be fired for doing very bad job.

by **goldfinger0303** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:45 am

leon1122 wrote: ↑
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:18 pm
Here’s an article detailing Russia’s allegations: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-acc ... ack-syria/

According to Russia, the White Helmets staged the attack with help from the British intelligence community, and they found stockpiles of chemical weapons in rebel territory after they evacuated.

Just a hypothetical here. But suppose you take this line of logic, and believe Russia. The attack was staged with the help of British intelligence because the West wanted a reason to make Russia look bad.

There are a number of assumptions you have to make there. Surely you must at least admit to that. Now, ask yourself. Are those assumptions 1) Less numerous and 2) More believable than the alternative theory that Assad did it, and then planted stockpiles of chemical weapons once they controlled the territory so they could blame it on the rebels.

by **CroakandDagger** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 3:11 am

The UK has been deliberately antagonistic towards Russia for a long time now, accusing them of many things that later turned out to be false.

I wonder if this will turn out to have been following that same pattern.

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