M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

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Expand view Topic review: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by bozotheclown » Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:25 am

This is from M1020 D3, when damo voted for his teammate DeathLlama, despite DeathLlama having drawn little to no suspicion at that point:
damo666 wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:04 pm
Conclusion:

The scum team is any 3 or all 4 from {darg, DL, ghug, Squigs}

A team of 4 would imply ghug and Squigs heavily bussing darg (not impossible) so let's assume a team of 3 (more likely anyway for balance purposes).

As per above let's eliminate {darg, ghug, Squigs}

So we are left with

{darg, DL, ghug} [darg and ghug mutually bussing]
{darg, DL, Squigs} [Squigs bussing]
{DL, ghug, Squigs} [No bussing]

So I guess the last of these 3 is now my best guess.

I will ##vote DeathLlama for appearing in all possible teams.

Problems with my analysis:
i) my exclusions may be incorrect implying odd bussing days 1 and/or 2
ii) My assumptions that Jamie and/or Sabi are town are off the mark.

Anyway at the end of the day it's a guessing game, I just wanted to put a bit of logic behind it.

Basically, I'm lost lol.
At the end of D3 in that game, damo voted for ghug, his other teammate, when the DK came down to me and ghug, to tie the vote at 4 with ghug yet to move his vote to me. It was a fairly safe bus with ghug able to break the tie, but there was some risk because one vote change could have swung the vote to ghug.

In summary, damo likes to distance vote his teammates as scum, but does not like to hard bus them and get them DKed.

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by dargorygel » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:48 pm

That sounds scummy
##vote damo

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by damo666 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:08 pm

Durga wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:53 pm
DeathLlama8 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:47 am
Durga wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am
I'm glad you all had fun
idt they did tbh
Yeah I'm gathering that 😂
I did.

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by damo666 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:07 pm

BesharamSabi wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:16 pm
damo666 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:18 pm
Eden - you are being to hard on yourself.

Snowy - you are being too hard on everyone lol.

Sabi - I like eliminating scumpairs as a tool to determine an estimate of each players' likelihood of being scum. It is of course not an exact science and not everyone's cup of tea.
Could you explain how you figure out scum pairs and what causes you to figure out they are not scum pairs.
Looking at votes. I know people bus but looking at the votecount at the time people vote you can spot what looks like a very unlikely scum on scum move, also taking into account where the principal wagons are voting themselves and considering likely self save switches. Of course when one is scum oneself it is somewhat easier!

For instance consider day 2. DL votes Bozo to put him 4-3 in the lead and never moves off. To me that's then an unlikely scumpair. Similarly celaph's Bozo vote and only moving off last minute when it was all over looks an unlikely scumpair. Arguably you could same the same for Bozo and Bona (look at both their voting). So if Bozo has 3 people he unlikely to be in a scum team with it's starting to look unlikely he is scum at all.

Hope that helps.

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by Durga » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:53 pm

DeathLlama8 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:47 am
Durga wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am
I'm glad you all had fun
idt they did tbh
Yeah I'm gathering that 😂

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by damo666 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:52 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:34 pm
Without having read the last EoD in detail I have to offer my congrats to Ghug for avoiding death at the last and therefore locking in the victory for his team.

DeathLlama, you gave off very towny vibes. Of the three Mafia you were the only one I didn't suspect at all. A good performance.

Damo you're always hard to read, solidly played again.

For the record, because people always shit on my reads, I did explicitly scumread Ghug and Damo before I was killed - but DL had me totally fooled.
Thanks Jamie

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by dargorygel » Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:53 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:31 pm
Oh the game is over?

GG well done scum.

Ghug was on the block last time I checked. Why did you all jump to Darg?

Thanks for running this, PE.

Last ever game with a QuickTopic... how about that.
Dargo did an odd jump to 'end,' not recalling at the moment that it was a dangerous KILO. (Hoping that all would jump to end and finish it, making MY schedule better.) When dargo REALIZED it, he unjumped. It looked very, very, very, very, very scummy.

So all voted for darg. (other than me...)

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by Jamiet99uk » Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:34 pm

Without having read the last EoD in detail I have to offer my congrats to Ghug for avoiding death at the last and therefore locking in the victory for his team.

DeathLlama, you gave off very towny vibes. Of the three Mafia you were the only one I didn't suspect at all. A good performance.

Damo you're always hard to read, solidly played again.

For the record, because people always shit on my reads, I did explicitly scumread Ghug and Damo before I was killed - but DL had me totally fooled.

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by Jamiet99uk » Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:31 pm

Oh the game is over?

GG well done scum.

Ghug was on the block last time I checked. Why did you all jump to Darg?

Thanks for running this, PE.

Last ever game with a QuickTopic... how about that.

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by BesharamSabi » Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:16 pm

damo666 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:18 pm
Eden - you are being to hard on yourself.

Snowy - you are being too hard on everyone lol.

Sabi - I like eliminating scumpairs as a tool to determine an estimate of each players' likelihood of being scum. It is of course not an exact science and not everyone's cup of tea.
Could you explain how you figure out scum pairs and what causes you to figure out they are not scum pairs.

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by damo666 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:19 pm

@kouncil where are we with the lack of QT situation?

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by damo666 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:18 pm

Eden - you are being to hard on yourself.

Snowy - you are being too hard on everyone lol.

Sabi - I like eliminating scumpairs as a tool to determine an estimate of each players' likelihood of being scum. It is of course not an exact science and not everyone's cup of tea.

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by ghug » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:05 am

DeathLlama8 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:28 am
ghug wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:27 am
There was also an interesting discussion about cases in the God thread. I think my best skill in this game is convincing people to do things (which is why I can miskill a bunch of people even when I don't appear particularly townie). I largely agree with snowy that writing cases is a net negative even for the person making the case. They're an effective convincing tactic, but they lead to the best talkers' reads dictating the kills, which isn't good for anyone
Agreed in general, but if snowy was convinced his reads were that much better than the rest of town's then he should've just constructed something. I don't see how he expected town to follow him onto us when he didn't put much effort into explaining why he suspected us (and died thinking I was town fwiw)
Yeah, I feel like anyone preaching self-doubt should probably not be talking about how their reads were perfect when they die townreading 2/3 scum.

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by DeathLlama8 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:28 am

ghug wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:27 am
There was also an interesting discussion about cases in the God thread. I think my best skill in this game is convincing people to do things (which is why I can miskill a bunch of people even when I don't appear particularly townie). I largely agree with snowy that writing cases is a net negative even for the person making the case. They're an effective convincing tactic, but they lead to the best talkers' reads dictating the kills, which isn't good for anyone
Agreed in general, but if snowy was convinced his reads were that much better than the rest of town's then he should've just constructed something. I don't see how he expected town to follow him onto us when he didn't put much effort into explaining why he suspected us (and died thinking I was town fwiw)

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by ghug » Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:27 am

DeathLlama8 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:47 am
Durga wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am
I'm glad you all had fun
idt they did tbh

Also re: snowy - I think I generally agree that meta reads are bad and that scumreading anyone who acts differently to you in the same situation is also bad, and it was probably pretty frustrating to die D2 like that for pretty weak reasoning. I don't think the game would've gone meaningfully differently if he had been free D2 (he probably obvtowns D2 and maybe get ghug killed if town follow you? and then we kill snowy/celaph instead of celaph/jamiet) though
I don't think meta reads are bad at all. To get in somebody's head, you have to know how they operate. Operating completely without meta is as flawed as only looking at whether people disagree with your ideas

I've been in the position snowy was in before, and I do empathize with it. Making yourself a little scummier preserves you and helps you read people better. Sometimes you thread the needle wrong though, and I think Snowy's death was largely a result of his flying too close to the sun.

There was also an interesting discussion about cases in the God thread. I think my best skill in this game is convincing people to do things (which is why I can miskill a bunch of people even when I don't appear particularly townie). I largely agree with snowy that writing cases is a net negative even for the person making the case. They're an effective convincing tactic, but they lead to the best talkers' reads dictating the kills, which isn't good for anyone. The flip side is that sometimes if your convincing skill is weak, you just need to bloviate a little. I think snowy, for example, would be served by contriving some points to support his generally decent (but again not impeccable) reads.

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by ghug » Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:16 am

DeathLlama8 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:44 am
BesharamSabi wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:32 am
we basically just needed to convince sabi to follow one of us today

I hate this.

How do I fix this lol
I didn't mean to single you out in that sense, more that everyone else had voted for ghug already and I knew you trusted me. I thought you generally played much better than previous games and obvtowned almost immediately which is the best first step for new(ish) town to take. Like was said above, next it's about focusing the effort and trying to more directly look for things that are scum-indicative (which you probably would've done had this game come at a better time).

In terms of your read on me, I feel like it was based on me trying to direct your play D1 for the better which you thought I would only do as town. Mafia me is trying to seem genuine though and would do the same thing though, so it's important not to base your read off one thing like that unless it's completely ironclad
Lol I totally tried to advise Sabi D1 by being snowyly condescending because I thought that would be seen as ghuggly.

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by DeathLlama8 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:47 am

Durga wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am
I'm glad you all had fun
idt they did tbh

Also re: snowy - I think I generally agree that meta reads are bad and that scumreading anyone who acts differently to you in the same situation is also bad, and it was probably pretty frustrating to die D2 like that for pretty weak reasoning. I don't think the game would've gone meaningfully differently if he had been free D2 (he probably obvtowns D2 and maybe get ghug killed if town follow you? and then we kill snowy/celaph instead of celaph/jamiet) though

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by DeathLlama8 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:44 am

BesharamSabi wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:32 am
we basically just needed to convince sabi to follow one of us today

I hate this.

How do I fix this lol
I didn't mean to single you out in that sense, more that everyone else had voted for ghug already and I knew you trusted me. I thought you generally played much better than previous games and obvtowned almost immediately which is the best first step for new(ish) town to take. Like was said above, next it's about focusing the effort and trying to more directly look for things that are scum-indicative (which you probably would've done had this game come at a better time).

In terms of your read on me, I feel like it was based on me trying to direct your play D1 for the better which you thought I would only do as town. Mafia me is trying to seem genuine though and would do the same thing though, so it's important not to base your read off one thing like that unless it's completely ironclad

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by BesharamSabi » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:32 am

DeathLlama8 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:21 am
aight so a few end of game notes

- this is the first game I've won as scum here where I actually showed up (I won M5 by lurking for four days and then getting carried by maniac) which is nice

- admittedly I also probably could've been replaced with anyone else and scum would've won comfortably (ghug pushed a lot of important miskills and damo avoided pressure from everyone and would've won KILO easily) but I held my own at least which is nice

- I don't think town was significantly worse than e.g. M1019 town if you disregard the result, which is obviously pretty bad. I think a relatively experienced scumteam just managed to stay well-hidden for the first two days and then coasted due to everyone correctly choosing to spend the holidays with their family instead. KILO is really hard as town (we basically just needed to convince sabi to follow one of us today even if everyone else stayed on ghug), and even if they found ghug, there was no way they were getting me and damo on consecutive days. It's also just easier to play once you have connections to go off of, which is how they ended up flipping the other two scum last game

- That being said, one thing town can work on is figuring out actual scum motivations to act in certain ways. I sent this to the God QT around D3:
I think one reason town has been so off track this game (looking like TvT again today lmao) is that people tend to naturally associate people playing differently than them as scum. You end up with "this person did something weird (i.e. not something I would do as town) -> they're not acting out of a town mindset -> they're scum" a lot. I've kind of been hiding behind this a lot this game since I noticed I was doing it too often last game as town.
(the part about wanting to rethink my town game was genuine, since part of why I hid so well was because my town game is pretty bad and replicable)

- bo and snowy weren't great daykills but at least for snowy I can see why people who weren't around for M1019 might view his play as weird? Anyone who was in M1019 where he died N1 for no reason would know that it was at worst NAI (I think he plausibly could've done it if he rolled scum this game fwiw)
we basically just needed to convince sabi to follow one of us today

I hate this.

How do I fix this lol

Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

by BesharamSabi » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:29 am

President Eden wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:21 am
This game kinda sucked all the way around, except for the mafia who had a solid outing. This includes me GMing.

There were a number of preventable errors on my part:
• I should have had a sub lined up in case anything happened; darg more or less got pressed into service so that I wouldn’t have to modkill on day 1 and disrupt the balance of the game too much. The game was not conducive to his holiday schedule at all and I think that contributed to the endgame malaise. But that’s not his fault—I should have had something lined up from the start.
• I needed a co-GM to handle vote counts while I was traveling. The bot made it functional, but I like to do better than leaning all the way into it like I did. snowy volunteered to handle a flip which was greatly appreciated, but it shouldn’t have gotten to that point. And wouldn’t have if…
• The game should have started earlier. We held out too long on M71. This should have wrapped up by Thanksgiving rather than running into it. That’s on me as well.

As for in-game issues:
• I have to be very careful about how hard I am on town when I start with all the answers. The fog of war leads you down some very strange paths. But I find it difficult to see the snowy miskill as anything other than a huge and entirely preventable mistake by town. He already spelled out the total lack of mafia motivation for his behavior. I think it’s very fair to say he was mostly unproductive town, and that his play didn’t help make things easier, but if that’s enough reason to kill somebody then 3/4 of this game should have been shot.
• There were a lot of bizarre “just-so” rationalizations for what ended up being incorrect votes that didn’t make a lot of sense to me. If anybody cares enough for me to go back and highlight some examples I will, but the basic takeaway here is that nothing a person says or does is intrinsically suspicious. What makes something suspicious is its misalignment from town incentives or alignment with mafia incentives. A common shortcut that came up was “X is thinking differently from me —> I am town —> X is not town,” and this simply does not follow, as if X and I are both town, we have different GM-confirmed information (our role PMs) and different mental processes (we are not the same person) which both very plausibly lead to different conclusions. Reconciling these conclusions to find the underlying truth is the name of the game; writing off the other’s takes because they aren’t in accordance with yours and suspecting them for it is the opposite of what good towns should aspire to do.
• I don’t really fault the activity dropoff, holidays are more important than mafia, the fault for that lies with the GM for scheduling when he did. I think this game is notably different if it doesn’t fall when it does on the calendar; as badly as town played, it still had a realistic shot at winning until the game actually ended.

On the bright side, mafia played well as a team. Llama did particularly well all game. damo had a bit of a cold start IMO, but town didn’t punish him for it, and he finished strong. ghug struggled some and was certainly catchable, but he still brought a lot of value to his team by misdirecting daykills and steering discussion in the right places for mafia, and ultimately being “catchable” doesn’t matter if you are not in fact “caught”—and caught he was not.

There were some solid individual town performances amidst the mess. Sabi took a big step forward and did two big things right—becoming widely townread, and pushing discussion forward. The solving will come with time but these are the building blocks to success. bozo had a great game from a solving perspective, and I’m not really sure what he could have done differently to avoid a miskill, as I don’t see what he was doing that was objectively incorrect.

Overall a game that I think most of us would prefer to move on from, but some bright spots were present that I didn’t want to get lost. Sorry for my part in the game not being great; there were preventable errors that I’ll work to correct for future games.
Wow Eden being nice to me. This is a Hanukkah miracle.

Thanks for being the worst gm. Having the game being in the holiday sucked ass on my part.

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