January Ghost Ratings Published

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Expand view Topic review: January Ghost Ratings Published

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by chluke » Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:19 am

Boo!

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by ghug » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:48 am

Bets aren't in the dump sadly. I'm not sure how easy it would be to change that, and there's an issue that the rules on replacement bets changed at some point, but that could be a good band-aid solution.

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by CCR » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:29 am

It may not track replacements, but it is feasible realizing if a player was a replacement or not: just check the bets of the remaining players (?).

Thus, the simple rule "in the case of a replacement player, he would NOT lower his rating based on that game - it would remain unchanged" may be applicable - of course, a positive result for a replacer still counts; then I reiterate, this rule is especially benefic to the whole community as general stimulous for goood players replacing condemned powers!

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by Yonni » Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:23 am

Aereaux, thanks.

CCB, I believe the issue is that the code that scrapes the system for results doesn't track replacements. There's a lot of work for the few people who spend time working on this site and they haven't gotten around to changing that.

I actually way prefer the way the Judge calculates rating than what we do. I'm going to see if I can write something in shitty kiddy-script that can calculate Judge Dip ratings using our results.

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by CCR » Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:01 am

Under the current system, good players who praise the ranking do not take over "condemned" powers, even those with good sc count if that power is in a bad tactical/diplomatic position!
I found the system used for GR is equal (ok, similar) to the JDPR ratings from 20 years ago, completely explained at
http://www.diplomatic-pouch.org/Email/R ... ribe.html
But the Replacement policy in JDPR is much better developed:
http://www.diplomatic-pouch.org/Email/R ... lace.html
I believe both the GR and the vranking regarding Replacement Policy should be improved with JDPR's experience:
  • pro-rated strenghts by phases played,
  • pro-rated expected values,
  • pro-rated points won from the game,
  • and, specially benefic to the whole community as general stimulous for replacing condemned powers, the simple rule "in the case of a replacement player, he would NOT lower his rating based on that game -- it would remain unchanged.

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by Aereaux » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:42 am

Yonni wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:00 pm
Do you have a legend for the variant types?
It looks like you can find it here: https://github.com/kestasjk/webDiplomac ... r/variants

It's the id in the variant.php for each variant.

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by Yonni » Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:00 pm

Whoa, thanks. Never knew we could get our hands on the dump.

Do you have a legend for the variant types?

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by ghug » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:15 pm

The data dump doesn't currently contain bet data, since the amount of GR "bet" is derived from each player's current rating.

The dump is hosted here if you want to take a look.

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by ghug » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:09 pm

I can send it to you if you like. It's a complete clusterfuck.

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by Aereaux » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:01 am

It looks like vDip's code for calculating ratings is here: https://github.com/Sleepcap/vDiplomacy/ ... rating.php . Is the code that is used for Ghost Ratings online somewhere?

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by Aereaux » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:44 am

Does the data dump that GR uses include data on how much each player bet?

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by Mercy » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:34 am

The way to do the same in GR is by changing your expected part of the pot from (your own GR) / (Sum of the GRs of all the players) into (your own GR times your bet) / (Sum of (the GR times the bet) of all the players).

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by Mercy » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:16 am

I believe that vRanking at vDiplomacy handles it the following way:

A CD position is 'worth' a certain percentage of the pot. This is the amount of :points: someone has to pay to take over a CD position and it is equal to some number just larger than 1/2 times the percentage of the supply centers of the board the CD'd layer controls. It is equal to 0 on this site, but it has been the same as on vDiplomacy, so it is possible to change in the code.

As someone familiar with the concept of rankings knows, GR and vRanking use expected points won in their calculations. For example, if you are a good player having bet 10 :points: in a game, it may be that according to your ranking, the expected value of :points: won that game is 20. If you then end up getting more/less than 20 :points:, your ranking increases/decreases.

I have the suspicion that vRanking simply multiplies everyone's expected points with what they have bet with respect to the other players. For example, if you are the same good player from the previous example and take over a CD worth 3 :points: where the other players bet 10 :points:, then you only need to win 6 :points: for your ranking to remain unchanged.

This system is not perfect, but is better than the current one.

And yes, GR does not make much mathematical sense.

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by ghug » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:11 pm

The first step would be deciding how to handle it in the scoring. GR doesn't make a lot of mathematical sense to begin with, so that could probably be fudged a little.

Then, the site tracks CDs but not replacements. I'm not sure how exactly it does it, but there'd have to be some amount of effort put into extracting the latter from the former and then including it in the GR data dump script.

Then you'd need to actually edit GR, which is a hideous mess of poorly-documented and needlessly complex code.

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by Aereaux » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:01 pm

Ah well, that kind of sucks. I try to take over a lot of games when people CD because I hate it when it happens in my games. Do you have any idea what would need to be added to support that?

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by ghug » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:36 pm

Yes, they do.

A better solution would be nice, but would sadly require a good amount of development work on both the site and the GR scripts.

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by Aereaux » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:17 pm

Another question: do Ghost Ratings include games that I have replaced a player in (and then proceeded to lose, because the player I replaced sucked)?

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by CAPT Brad » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:30 am

Condensation you fear to play me. Brain. I am kicking your butt and you know it.

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by brainbomb » Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:45 am

We agree yer pretty bad at this game

Re: January Ghost Ratings Published

by TrPrado » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:13 pm

GR is rigged! No way I'm in the top 500 players on the site!

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