Israel murders UN humanitarian staff working at a school:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyn400rm68o

Octavious wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 17, 2024 5:39 pm

There's very little chance of them voting for Trump, but there's quite a large chance of them voting to spend the evening gaming or at the bar or whatever it is young Americans do these days. Watch some anime and eat.

No, stupid of me. They'll be playing Diplomacy. That's what all the cool kids do

Vouch on gaming. Vouch on anime. I’m not old enough to drink so I can’t vouch for bar. Vouch on diplomacy (I have finally obtained the title of ‘cool’ ahaha!)

I think it very much depends on the region what young voters do. I think many people are smart enough to realize a non-vote may be the same as a vote for trump (in highly contested areas). In uncontested areas, or if there isn’t enough voting encouragement they may unfortunately decide to stay home.

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 17, 2024 12:28 pm

Yeah the thing is "I don't like Biden's stance on Israel" does not immediately convert young Democrats into "I will vote for Trump" because Trump is so disgusting.

There's very little chance of them voting for Trump, but there's quite a large chance of them voting to spend the evening gaming or at the bar or whatever it is young Americans do these days. Watch some anime and eat.

No, stupid of me. They'll be playing Diplomacy. That's what all the cool kids do

The other risk to Harris is that those young Dems vote for a third party candidate, or simply don't vote. Her campaign will need to do enough to get them to the polls without alienating her other constituencies: suburban moms, pro-Israel donors, etc. Hence, her student loan forgiveness and "anti-price gouging" proposals.

Yeah the thing is "I don't like Biden's stance on Israel" does not immediately convert young Democrats into "I will vote for Trump" because Trump is so disgusting.

Octavious wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 15, 2024 2:21 pm

if it doesn't Biden and Kamala will lose them

This is true, but the way the right looks rn, it’s highly likely young people are going to be boxed into voting for them regardless. The whole ‘lesser evil’ thing.

Yes, I think in the US the pro-Palestian position is not as strongly held as it appears to be online and is mostly driven forward by voters who are planning to vote blue no matter what or who live in states that will go blue regardless.

There is a ton of narrative flexibility. If Hamas gave up all it's hostages the story could easily be spun about how it's a cynical ploy to buy time for more nefarious actions, or it could shift to ignoring the Gaza problem altogether and reframing military support for Israel as directly tied to it's efforts against Iran, etc. This wouldn't convince a hardcore Palestinian supporter, but it would give plausible cover to a voter for whom this issue is not a top 5 concern (i.e., nearly all of them).

If there were going to be some Dem primary where a competition within the blue tribe gave voters a serious choice about middle east policy I'd be somewhat more inclined to your view. As it stands, Israel is getting away with literal murder and is suffering only very minor consequences.

You believe Biden could continue to support Israel against Hamas even if Hamas ceased all hostilities and released all hostages? I don't know how they could sell that to their voters. The young enthusiastic Democrats who do a lot of the re-election donkey work are very pro-Palestinian as it is. If Hamas make a genuine effort to end the war they will demand something happens, and if it doesn't Biden and Kamala will lose them

Octavious wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 14, 2024 9:55 pm

If Biden demands a ceasefire with the full force of influence available to him then Israel will either fall into line or find itself in a far more difficult position than it's used to.

Israel is central to the US' strategy to contain Iran so it's no surprise that the US hasn't meaningfully cut support to Israel yet despite evidence of war crimes. I don't think they would cut support under basically any conceivable circumstance.

The US even supported the Sadam regime in Iraq for many years for this exact same reason and only begrudgingly ended this support after Iraq invaded Kuwait — Sadam continued to get US support even after gassing the Kurds, although it came with a side of finger waging.

Iran is 10x the size Iraq was when the US invaded in 2003 and the US public has absolutely zero appetite for another middle eastern war. Every Israeli that the US arms is one fewer US soldier that would need to go to the frontlines of a possible war against Iran.

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 14, 2024 1:42 pm

I thought Biden had already called for a ceasefire?

Yeah, and he's also just approved another 20 billion dollars worth of arms sales. A parent telling off a child for pinching a biscuit is a very different thing from a parent telling off a child for walking too close to the edge of a cliff, and calls for ceasefires are much the same. Biden's call for a ceasefire have thus far been very much on the biscuit side of the consequence scale. If Biden demands a ceasefire with the full force of influence available to him then Israel will either fall into line or find itself in a far more difficult position than it's used to.

Neither side wants peace as far as I can tell.

Israel's war aim isn't just to release the current hostages — it's also to make Hamas incapable of taking hostages again. And, to Jamie's point, also to devastate Gaza such that it won't pose any threat for years to come, with callous disregard for the civilian lives destroyed along the way.

If those are Israel's true goals why would they quit now? They've just recently killed important leaders of their worst enemies. They face a risk of a three front war and are probably happy to have already pulverized one of the fronts. They can rely on US basically no matter what now that Iran is threatening to become directly involved in a major way.

Why Hamas does what it does has nothing to do with the wellbeing of Palestinians. Why give up hostages when the goal is to make the Levant intolerable for Jews and/or to incite a multi front war against Israel? If Hamas were a genuine Palestinian nationalist movement I'd have a different view, but they're genocidal theocrats and Iranian proxies who celebrate the martyrdom of their citizens.

Octavious wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 14, 2024 10:45 am

They probably can't be 100% certain, but the political pressure from Israel's allies to ceasefire after a full hostage release would be massive and I can't for the life of me see how Israel would be able to resist it. If Biden and Kamala didn’t publicly demand a ceasefire after such a gesture it would be politically massively damaging to them in the middle of an election campaign, and Israel can't resist such a demand without losing US support making themselves ridiculously vulnerable.

And as keeping hold of the hostages has clearly done Hamas no good whatsoever for quite some time then the value of keeping them is essentially nil... unless, of course, they want the war to continue.

I thought Biden had already called for a ceasefire?

They probably can't be 100% certain, but the political pressure from Israel's allies to ceasefire after a full hostage release would be massive and I can't for the life of me see how Israel would be able to resist it. If Biden and Kamala didn’t publicly demand a ceasefire after such a gesture it would be politically massively damaging to them in the middle of an election campaign, and Israel can't resist such a demand without losing US support making themselves ridiculously vulnerable.

And as keeping hold of the hostages has clearly done Hamas no good whatsoever for quite some time then the value of keeping them is essentially nil... unless, of course, they want the war to continue.

How can they be sure that the release of the hostages would immediately cause Israel to cease fire?

Nethanyahu has made a range of additional demands way beyond hostage release, while he continues to order the murder of thousands of civilians.

The war continues for the sole reason that both sides want it. If Hamas wanted peace they could simply release the remaining hostages and that would be enough to force a ceasefire. But they don't. The problem we have is that both sides still think they can win. Until that changes the war goes on.

“Wake up. Stop finding excuses. Stop imagining that you can reason with the Israeli government so it stops killing civilians by the thousands, imposing famine, torturing prisoners, colonising and annexing our land, all while you appeal to them, call on them, demand them to stop.”

- Palestinian ambassador to the UN, Riyad Mansour.

The Israeli defence forces are put on high alert and the US are rushing every bit of naval firepower they can to the region. It's all getting a bit tense... It's one of those nights where you're genuinely nervous about what headlines will greet you in the morning. Hopefully nothing, but we will see

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), in a landmark ruling, has today said Israel should stop settlement activity in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem and end its "illegal" occupation of those areas and the Gaza Strip as soon as possible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjerjzxlpvdo

Naturally, fascist Israel will ignore this international condemnation and continue to commit indiscriminate murder and steal whatever land it likes. Such is the nature of genocidal fascist regimes which are given free reign to kill, oppress, and terrorize.

The Israeli army set an attack dog on a Palestinian man with Down's Syndrome. The dog mauled him and seriously injured him. The Israelis then left him to die of his injuries. His body was later found by his distraught relatives.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-gaza-war-palestinians-dog-attack-b2581144.html

Murdering disabled people. This is the behaviour of a genocidal oppressor. Shameful and disgusting.

Esquire Bertissimmo wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 13, 2024 7:54 pm

Just commenting so a different subject line shows up.

I share Jamie's outrage in this case, but "Fuck Israel" has unpleasant and probably unintended implications - Jamie no doubt would have taken issue with a "Fuck Palestine" subject line on Oct. 7th.

Fair point I guess. (Although, the politics forum is hidden from the main page of the site, so doesn't show up much).