damo666 wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:04 pm

Conclusion:

The scum team is any 3 or all 4 from {darg, DL, ghug, Squigs}

A team of 4 would imply ghug and Squigs heavily bussing darg (not impossible) so let's assume a team of 3 (more likely anyway for balance purposes).

As per above let's eliminate {darg, ghug, Squigs}

So we are left with

{darg, DL, ghug} [darg and ghug mutually bussing]
{darg, DL, Squigs} [Squigs bussing]
{DL, ghug, Squigs} [No bussing]

So I guess the last of these 3 is now my best guess.

I will ##vote DeathLlama for appearing in all possible teams.

Problems with my analysis:
i) my exclusions may be incorrect implying odd bussing days 1 and/or 2
ii) My assumptions that Jamie and/or Sabi are town are off the mark.

Anyway at the end of the day it's a guessing game, I just wanted to put a bit of logic behind it.

Basically, I'm lost lol.

Durga wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:53 pm

DeathLlama8 wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:47 am

Durga wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am

I'm glad you all had fun

idt they did tbh

Yeah I'm gathering that

BesharamSabi wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:16 pm

damo666 wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:18 pm

Eden - you are being to hard on yourself.

Snowy - you are being too hard on everyone lol.

Sabi - I like eliminating scumpairs as a tool to determine an estimate of each players' likelihood of being scum. It is of course not an exact science and not everyone's cup of tea.

Could you explain how you figure out scum pairs and what causes you to figure out they are not scum pairs.

DeathLlama8 wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:47 am

Durga wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am

I'm glad you all had fun

idt they did tbh

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:34 pm

Without having read the last EoD in detail I have to offer my congrats to Ghug for avoiding death at the last and therefore locking in the victory for his team.

DeathLlama, you gave off very towny vibes. Of the three Mafia you were the only one I didn't suspect at all. A good performance.

Damo you're always hard to read, solidly played again.

For the record, because people always shit on my reads, I did explicitly scumread Ghug and Damo before I was killed - but DL had me totally fooled.

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:31 pm

Oh the game is over?

GG well done scum.

Ghug was on the block last time I checked. Why did you all jump to Darg?

Thanks for running this, PE.

Last ever game with a QuickTopic... how about that.

damo666 wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:18 pm

Eden - you are being to hard on yourself.

Snowy - you are being too hard on everyone lol.

Sabi - I like eliminating scumpairs as a tool to determine an estimate of each players' likelihood of being scum. It is of course not an exact science and not everyone's cup of tea.

DeathLlama8 wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:28 am

ghug wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:27 am

There was also an interesting discussion about cases in the God thread. I think my best skill in this game is convincing people to do things (which is why I can miskill a bunch of people even when I don't appear particularly townie). I largely agree with snowy that writing cases is a net negative even for the person making the case. They're an effective convincing tactic, but they lead to the best talkers' reads dictating the kills, which isn't good for anyone

Agreed in general, but if snowy was convinced his reads were that much better than the rest of town's then he should've just constructed something. I don't see how he expected town to follow him onto us when he didn't put much effort into explaining why he suspected us (and died thinking I was town fwiw)

ghug wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:27 am

There was also an interesting discussion about cases in the God thread. I think my best skill in this game is convincing people to do things (which is why I can miskill a bunch of people even when I don't appear particularly townie). I largely agree with snowy that writing cases is a net negative even for the person making the case. They're an effective convincing tactic, but they lead to the best talkers' reads dictating the kills, which isn't good for anyone

DeathLlama8 wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:47 am

Durga wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am

I'm glad you all had fun

idt they did tbh

Also re: snowy - I think I generally agree that meta reads are bad and that scumreading anyone who acts differently to you in the same situation is also bad, and it was probably pretty frustrating to die D2 like that for pretty weak reasoning. I don't think the game would've gone meaningfully differently if he had been free D2 (he probably obvtowns D2 and maybe get ghug killed if town follow you? and then we kill snowy/celaph instead of celaph/jamiet) though

DeathLlama8 wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:44 am

BesharamSabi wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:32 am

we basically just needed to convince sabi to follow one of us today

I hate this.

How do I fix this lol

I didn't mean to single you out in that sense, more that everyone else had voted for ghug already and I knew you trusted me. I thought you generally played much better than previous games and obvtowned almost immediately which is the best first step for new(ish) town to take. Like was said above, next it's about focusing the effort and trying to more directly look for things that are scum-indicative (which you probably would've done had this game come at a better time).

In terms of your read on me, I feel like it was based on me trying to direct your play D1 for the better which you thought I would only do as town. Mafia me is trying to seem genuine though and would do the same thing though, so it's important not to base your read off one thing like that unless it's completely ironclad

Durga wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am

I'm glad you all had fun

BesharamSabi wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:32 am

we basically just needed to convince sabi to follow one of us today

I hate this.

How do I fix this lol

DeathLlama8 wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:21 am

aight so a few end of game notes

- this is the first game I've won as scum here where I actually showed up (I won M5 by lurking for four days and then getting carried by maniac) which is nice

- admittedly I also probably could've been replaced with anyone else and scum would've won comfortably (ghug pushed a lot of important miskills and damo avoided pressure from everyone and would've won KILO easily) but I held my own at least which is nice

- I don't think town was significantly worse than e.g. M1019 town if you disregard the result, which is obviously pretty bad. I think a relatively experienced scumteam just managed to stay well-hidden for the first two days and then coasted due to everyone correctly choosing to spend the holidays with their family instead. KILO is really hard as town (we basically just needed to convince sabi to follow one of us today even if everyone else stayed on ghug), and even if they found ghug, there was no way they were getting me and damo on consecutive days. It's also just easier to play once you have connections to go off of, which is how they ended up flipping the other two scum last game

- That being said, one thing town can work on is figuring out actual scum motivations to act in certain ways. I sent this to the God QT around D3:

I think one reason town has been so off track this game (looking like TvT again today lmao) is that people tend to naturally associate people playing differently than them as scum. You end up with "this person did something weird (i.e. not something I would do as town) -> they're not acting out of a town mindset -> they're scum" a lot. I've kind of been hiding behind this a lot this game since I noticed I was doing it too often last game as town.

(the part about wanting to rethink my town game was genuine, since part of why I hid so well was because my town game is pretty bad and replicable)

- bo and snowy weren't great daykills but at least for snowy I can see why people who weren't around for M1019 might view his play as weird? Anyone who was in M1019 where he died N1 for no reason would know that it was at worst NAI (I think he plausibly could've done it if he rolled scum this game fwiw)

President Eden wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:21 am

This game kinda sucked all the way around, except for the mafia who had a solid outing. This includes me GMing.

There were a number of preventable errors on my part:
• I should have had a sub lined up in case anything happened; darg more or less got pressed into service so that I wouldn’t have to modkill on day 1 and disrupt the balance of the game too much. The game was not conducive to his holiday schedule at all and I think that contributed to the endgame malaise. But that’s not his fault—I should have had something lined up from the start.
• I needed a co-GM to handle vote counts while I was traveling. The bot made it functional, but I like to do better than leaning all the way into it like I did. snowy volunteered to handle a flip which was greatly appreciated, but it shouldn’t have gotten to that point. And wouldn’t have if…
• The game should have started earlier. We held out too long on M71. This should have wrapped up by Thanksgiving rather than running into it. That’s on me as well.

As for in-game issues:
• I have to be very careful about how hard I am on town when I start with all the answers. The fog of war leads you down some very strange paths. But I find it difficult to see the snowy miskill as anything other than a huge and entirely preventable mistake by town. He already spelled out the total lack of mafia motivation for his behavior. I think it’s very fair to say he was mostly unproductive town, and that his play didn’t help make things easier, but if that’s enough reason to kill somebody then 3/4 of this game should have been shot.
• There were a lot of bizarre “just-so” rationalizations for what ended up being incorrect votes that didn’t make a lot of sense to me. If anybody cares enough for me to go back and highlight some examples I will, but the basic takeaway here is that nothing a person says or does is intrinsically suspicious. What makes something suspicious is its misalignment from town incentives or alignment with mafia incentives. A common shortcut that came up was “X is thinking differently from me —> I am town —> X is not town,” and this simply does not follow, as if X and I are both town, we have different GM-confirmed information (our role PMs) and different mental processes (we are not the same person) which both very plausibly lead to different conclusions. Reconciling these conclusions to find the underlying truth is the name of the game; writing off the other’s takes because they aren’t in accordance with yours and suspecting them for it is the opposite of what good towns should aspire to do.
• I don’t really fault the activity dropoff, holidays are more important than mafia, the fault for that lies with the GM for scheduling when he did. I think this game is notably different if it doesn’t fall when it does on the calendar; as badly as town played, it still had a realistic shot at winning until the game actually ended.

On the bright side, mafia played well as a team. Llama did particularly well all game. damo had a bit of a cold start IMO, but town didn’t punish him for it, and he finished strong. ghug struggled some and was certainly catchable, but he still brought a lot of value to his team by misdirecting daykills and steering discussion in the right places for mafia, and ultimately being “catchable” doesn’t matter if you are not in fact “caught”—and caught he was not.

There were some solid individual town performances amidst the mess. Sabi took a big step forward and did two big things right—becoming widely townread, and pushing discussion forward. The solving will come with time but these are the building blocks to success. bozo had a great game from a solving perspective, and I’m not really sure what he could have done differently to avoid a miskill, as I don’t see what he was doing that was objectively incorrect.

Overall a game that I think most of us would prefer to move on from, but some bright spots were present that I didn’t want to get lost. Sorry for my part in the game not being great; there were preventable errors that I’ll work to correct for future games.