Mafia 88: Murder at the Meadery - GAME THREAD

[sweetandcool]

@Sweet, what do you think of my argument that Sparta’s Day 4 hypo claim (Town!Bunny/Town!Bozo) makes Bozo look pretty Town?

Yeah, I will think about it. Just brewed a batch of coffee, about to put the kids down. Then I will buckle down and assess the game.

[sweetandcool]

@Sweet, what do you think of my argument that Sparta’s Day 4 hypo claim (Town!Bunny/Town!Bozo) makes Bozo look pretty Town?

1. Reviewing Sparta yet again, I would say that Sparta's hypo scans were not implausible, but not very believable either.

I believe Mafia suspected him for his D2 performance, where he seemed to plainly crumb sweetandcool as Town. Or possibly Balki as Town or Vecna as Mafia. His hypothetical scenario he describes looks an awful lot like a beginner player trying to understand how he should use his PR role.

2. So Mafia read his Hypo scans. It's possible his scans were accurate (i.e. Bozo is Town), or it's possible Mafia decided that he was at least partially lying, but were convinced by his D2 performance that he was best candidate for Clerk (or both scenarios).

Conclusion: I do think overall this argument makes Bozo more likely Town, but on its own I am unconvinced.

Separate from this, I have been waffling bigtime this entire game on whether to Town or Scum Bozo.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One thing to keep in mind, we should pair NK and RB each night, because it means that Mafia generally intends to kill the RB the next night, which means they also think the RB could be Clerk.

[sweetandcool]

Balki what is your opinion on Dip?
Miller Dip, or Mafia Dip?

Personally I don't think Dip is Miller. I've already scumread him previously, and the Mafia datapoints I have are pretty compelling to me.

1. Balki returned Mafia after scanning Dip.

2. Dip was able to assess the situation incredibly quickly when he subbed in, and rather than at least initially assuming that voting Ham made sense (due to Ham's fake claim), Dip was able to go against "common sense" rather quickly. This makes sense if Dip was filling out a Mafia slot. It is much less plausible if Dip was filling a Town slot.

3. Dip's emotional outburst towards me felt incredibly fake (forgive me if I am wrong and you are Miller). Start reading Dip around page 132, and it just comes across as Scum putting on an act of lashing out at their detractors. And randomly trying to buddy Jamiet.

4. rdr, Dip's predecessor was oddly Buddy friendly with sweetandcool, which was unprecedented and just a bit odd.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miller Dip seems to be an impossibility. He MUST be Mafia, that's conclusive.
Balki, do you agree with my analysis?

Another datapoint I noticed is that Dip seemed to be mildly anti-Bozo. This could of course be distancing, but I'm more inclined to award some Townpoints to Bozo. So maybe you are correct about Bozo.

[Jamiet99uk]

Same question for Jamiet or anyone else.

I already replied to you on this point, Balki.

[Jamiet99uk]

Balki what is your opinion on Dip?
Miller Dip, or Mafia Dip?

Personally I don't think Dip is Miller. I've already scumread him previously, and the Mafia datapoints I have are pretty compelling to me.

1. Balki returned Mafia after scanning Dip.

2. Dip was able to assess the situation incredibly quickly when he subbed in, and rather than at least initially assuming that voting Ham made sense (due to Ham's fake claim), Dip was able to go against "common sense" rather quickly. This makes sense if Dip was filling out a Mafia slot. It is much less plausible if Dip was filling a Town slot.

3. Dip's emotional outburst towards me felt incredibly fake (forgive me if I am wrong and you are Miller). Start reading Dip around page 132, and it just comes across as Scum putting on an act of lashing out at their detractors. And randomly trying to buddy Jamiet.

4. rdr, Dip's predecessor was oddly Buddy friendly with sweetandcool, which was unprecedented and just a bit odd.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miller Dip seems to be an impossibility. He MUST be Mafia, that's conclusive.
Balki, do you agree with my analysis?

Another datapoint I noticed is that Dip seemed to be mildly anti-Bozo. This could of course be distancing, but I'm more inclined to award some Townpoints to Bozo. So maybe you are correct about Bozo.

You addressed this at Balki, but I will comment too.

This is a plausible analysis.

[sweetandcool]

Assuming Dip flips Mafia, I think the final answer is Ham.

If you take away Will's reads list D1 where he forgot to add Ham (which I never thought was compelling evidence), then I think it's more likely Ham was just panicking scum who had planted the Clerk crumbs D1 and was prepared with an excuse after a clumsy Clerk soft.

I've also been waffling on Ham, but essentially the PoE has become so restricted that I think he is most likely.

While it could be Jamiet, for a medley of reasons I think it incredibly unlikely he is Mafia.

And as I stated before, I've been waffling on Bozo the entire game. I think compared to Ham, he is more likely Town.

I am very confident that Bona is Town. Mainly because of his fight with Will and his tunnel on me is authentic.

[Jamiet99uk]

Bona has not posted in a loooong time...

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

My read on Balki is that he's cop, but is intentionally lying about his scans because he thinks I'm scum. This explains why his claim scans don't match his crumbs, which don't match his hypo-scans. As for why he's lying, he's probably very certain that I am scum, and is using the cover of him being cop (which he knows can't be cced because he is cop) to get me voted out. This is probably why he's claiming that my argument falls apart with no cc. At this point there's little to no doubt balki is cop, but if he wasn't lying about his scans, he would be able to explain the disparity between his hypo-scans, his crumbs, and the scan he's now claiming against me.

Sweet might or might not be scum. It's still very strange how he claims to have seen all three crumbs, while neither sweet nor balki can be bothered to explain where these crumbs might be.

I need answers.
##VOTE SWEET

[Jamiet99uk]

Bonatogether.

Bonatogether.

Bonatogether.

[Jamiet99uk]

Hmmm, I must have used the wrong flavour of incense.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Sweetandcool, the nice thing is that Dip&War is twice as likely to be a Goon as he is to be a Miller, which means that we basically have to flip him. As a result of that, I haven’t spent a ton of time evaluating that slot.

A few things stand out to me when I think about the slot:

(1) The timing of RDRivera’s Day 1 JustWill vote really increased the chances that JustWill would die. To me, it looked like a fairly unlikely bus position. But I think Sparta did some good analysis looking back at past games to debunk that idea in my head, and I think RDRivera is a scum player who has a bus like that in his range.

(2) I keep going back in my head to the moment after Damo released a swarm of deadly bees on our beloved beekeeper. RDRivera made a point of apologizing directly to me because I had taken a Day 1 stance that we kill Damo for being unhelpful and RDRivera had opposed that idea. He seemed to see Damo’s Day 2 mistake as some point in my favor in that argument.

In retrospect, it was kind of an odd apology, and I am thinking that it may be more likely designed to get me on his side, rather than a sincere concession that I was right to try to daykill Damo on Day 1.

(3) I find Dip&War’s reactions today to be more scum indicative. If he’s Town, he would always know there was a chance he could be Miller. He might treat the moment with some “woe is me” humor along with some acceptance that he probably needs to be daykilled just based on the numbers. He might even use this time to try to do a bit of solving and leave us with a solid guess at the final bad guys for the record books. Instead, he has been more focused on digging up crumbs and challenging me. Considering that Mafia likely spent most of last night trying to decipher crumbs in the thread and wrongly thought they pointed to Bunny, Dip&War’s reaction is more consistent with what I’d expect from scum.

(4) With my waffling opinions on Bozo, my POE for scum is just getting very small. I’d be surprised if two others are scum based on the info we know now.

On balance, my best evidence against Dip&War is certainly the scan, but I think I’d be comfortable flipping him even without it. I wouldn’t at all say that it’s impossible for him to be Miller — I’ve seen plenty of flips that have shocked me more than that would shock me — but I think he is probably scum.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Just based on thread activity and momentum, I encourage folks to vote END by the 24-hour mark.

[Balki Bartokomous]

My process of elimination after I am gone would look like this in order of first kill to third kill.

1. Hamilton
2. Bozo
3. Jamiet

[sweetandcool]

I agree. Let's keep this game moving. I will end before the long night deadline.

[sweetandcool]

Oh! I just remembered!

So like Jamiet, I was a bit surprised that I was not the RB/NK.

I thought for sure Bunny was convincing enough that Mafia would NK Bunny and RB me, possibly the other way around.

But then Mafia must have finally at least partially picked up on Balki. Enough that they weren't confident that Balki was Clerk, but enough to RB him instead of me.

Now, I posted a hypo scan list that included two correct guilty scans. Then I threw Bozo in as a guilty, just to look a bit unlikely.

Now, if my hypo scans were 100% correct, it's hard to believe I was completely ignored during the night phase.

This means my scan on Bozo was incorrect (or possibly Dip is Miller which I severely doubt), which is more Town points for Bozo.

I still hesitate to completely claim Bozo is Town, but it's certainly looking more and more like that is the case.

[sweetandcool]

Yeah, I think Ham has to be final Mafia, he fits the profile I would expect of this team, consisting of lower posting more lurky types and/or newer players.

It's fortunate that Balki scanned Pirate as Town or I would be suffering from paranoia since he is the only other player that really fits the mental profile I have of the scum team.

[sweetandcool]

Free time is over, so while I wanted to write down a case against Ham that does not rely on PoE, I ran out of time.

I will just summarize the most important point, which is that I think damo NK, Sparta RB, was a matter of convenience for Mafia.

It made it look like they were targeted due to their hard defense of Ham.

I believe that for various reasons they happened to be the top two contenders for Cop, and consequently were on the chopping block anyways.

So very convenient for Mafia since it very much looked like it was because Mafia thought they "accurately" scanned Ham as Town. When in reality Ham is Mafia.

[sweetandcool]

##END

[Balki Bartokomous]

I think we're the only ones still playing....

##end again

[sweetandcool]

I think we're the only ones still playing....

##end again

I was just thinking that XD

I would really appreciate us ending. There is a small chance I have to sub if the game doesn't finish soon.

Bona still hasn't posted, and now no one else seems to be checked into the game at all.