M81: A Night To Remember [GAME THREAD]

[President Eden]

ghosts should not +1 posts

thanks

[President Eden]

except mine. you can +1 mine all you want

[sweetandcool]

Another thought I had during the day was: what to do if a living player has a question towards a dead person (gee, why would I think that)? Dead Players only have 100 letters so they have limited space and don't want to waste it refering to a question.

So I came up with an idea of referencing that question. I thought the shortest way is to implement these brackets [] as a start/end; then, the first part would be the player number from edens list at the start plus the first letter of someones name (for example, it would be 2K for me since I was second); then I'm a bit torn: either, the next is the number of questions asked (so starting with 1) OR the page the question was asked on (like here 73). The first one is shorter (possibly) and you can refer to more questions within a page, but it might be a hassle to search for the original question (though that might be an issue for you peterbot users). Also people might lose track of the numbers if they had asked too many questions. The other one is using more space and you can't question as many since they will have the same reference number.

Though I think the 'current number' system is better, but you might disagree. So for now lets test it by asking the dead people:

[2K1]Sissi, how could you do this to me?

Regarding the answer length, I also thought "hmm, that might eat much space of the message", so why not give some options for the answer, like

a) It's mafia-time, baby
b) Sorry I didn't want tooo
c) blame Eden, I hate it when I'm mafia
d) just dance
e) nothing of the above, explain in your own words

I don't know if there will be many questions towards the dead player chat, but IF there is, I suggest you all using this system.

Good idea to talk about this before you go. I don't see why we can't just use the player name, adding brackets could help a ghost control-f I suppose.

So if I wanted to ask ghost chat something, e.g. Kak, then couldn't I do the following:
[Kak] Who do you think killed you?

And then your would use a system to give as much information as possible with the fewest number of characters.

well if you already use the [1S1] to ask (you can just say "Kak, who do you think killed you?" to refer to me), then I can use

[1S1]HB'sghost (further info on something other)

and everyone can just go in the thread to see which question it refers to. It's no problem to have a long, winded question since we have no limits in the normal chat; but it is to correctly refer to the question in question (err, not intended) with as few characters as possible.

I see, got it.

[ghug]

scum ghug
scum worcej
and scum rivera would all kill me here for wifom

I'm such a clear hunter. Are you kidding?

[aarodactyl]

Aaro is right, let me explain

Chance of being drawn with Mafia1 = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia2 = (1-1/11)*(1/10) = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia3 = (1-2/11)*(1/9) = 1/11

So if you are town the chance your partner is mafia is 3/11.

So as a townie your partner is more likely to be scum than somebody chosen at random (3/13).
[...]

so ... why is green, blue and red the same 1/11 when they have all different values? Shouldn't the chance decrease because there aren't as many slots after the mafia before were drawn? And if you just want to say all three have equal chance to be drawn, why put that math out there?

So what are the chances then that town is your partner?

1/13 for the first? (1-1/13)*(1/12) = 1/13 (0.0769230769230769)
second (1-2/12)*(1/11) = 0.0757575757575 ~1/13
third (1-3/11)*(1/10) = 0.07272727272 ~1/14
fourth (1-4/11)*(1/9) = 0.070707070707 ~1/14
sixth (1-5/11)*(1/8) = 0.0681818181818182 ~1/15
seventh (1-6/11)*(1/7) = 0.064935064935065 ~1/15
eight (1-7/11)*(1/6) = 0.0606060606060606 ~1/16
ninth (1-8/11)*(1/5) = 0.054545454545454545 ~1/18
tenth (1-9/11)*(1/4) = 0.045454545454545455 = 1/22
eleventh (1-10/11)*(1/3) = 0.0303030303030303 = 1/33

0.0769230769230769
0.075757575757575
0.0727272727727272
0.0707070707070707
0.0681818181818182
0.064935064935065
0.0606060606060606
0.0545454545454545
0.0454545454545455
0.0303030303030303
__________________
0.6201409701409801 ~ 7/11 (0.6363636363636363)

hmm, something doesn't make sense with that ... it's close, sure, but 7/11 + 3/11 is only about 10/11 ... where is the missing 1/11?

and why does the number vary for town whereas for mafia it stays the same percentage?

why does damo and aaro come to around the same number which isn't 100% exactly correct? Did they come up with that number in the mafchat? Did I do a big oopsie somewhere at my calculations? Can the system for mafia not be made for town? Or is the whole thing just a big strange red herring and 3/7 and 4/7 are just correct?

You’re getting a bit confused because of how damo is explaining it. It’s correct but not really how I would think of it. That said, I’ll still explicitly point out your misunderstanding. Also I think you already understand parts of what I’m about to say but I’m repeating them for the sake of completeness.

The situation for assigning partners is as follows: Eden assigns a town member for each mafia member. Then he pairs up town.

To get a sense of why damo is doing what he’s doing, imagine Eden picks the partners one at a time. The three colored numbers are the probability that that mafia member is given you as their partner. Intuitively, it shouldn’t matter the order that Eden assigns the mafia partners. Using math terms, when damo is doing the calculation, the odds of being picked by each mafia member goes up but that scenario only happens if you aren’t picked by a previous mafia member and that cancels. The fancy pants math answer is that even though being picked by the various mafia members, you can just multiply the probability of being picked by one of them by something called “linearity of expectation”.

The math you’re doing doesn’t make sense and isn’t working for you because you’re modeling 11 people picking things. Considering there’s 7 things, there’s not nearly that maybe picks. I’m also not 100% how you’re trying to model it so it’s hard to explain more why it’s wrong. It’s also very hard to use that type of logic to get the chance of a town assignment directly because some of the scenarios you’re modeling would have two scum together. I only got 8/11 is the chance of town by doing 1-3/11. There’s another way to see it though.

Also, I talked with bona about the math before the game and this was his approach. So all positive and negative opinions should be mailed to him.

If you pretend we don’t have names the pairs are:
S|T
S|T
S|T
T|T
T|T
T|T
T|T

Now imagine Eden goes and randomly assigns each scum to an S and each town to a T. Imagine he assigns you first (order doesn’t matter but it makes it easier to think about to go first). What’s the chance you’re assigned to a T paired with an S? What’s the probability that you’re assigned to a T paired with a T?

Anyways. This was my best shot of typing this up. We can discuss on a vc after the game if you want more insight.

[brainbomb]

its still just ezio and rhk

just do that

[President Eden]

GM NOTE:

Without comment on any post by any player, all players are on notice that copy and pasting directly from Discord chats is not allowed. Summarizing events in your own words is permissible. I’m aware that alleged Discord chats can be faked easily, but it’s better for the game if we don’t have to go down the road of deciding whether a chat log is authentic or not. Again, summarizing discussion in the chat is acceptable, it’s only direct copy and paste which is disallowed. Thanks

##CallGM: Does this mean faked Discord chats are also disallowed?

Yes. I thought I said that in there, but on review I didn't lol.

You can summarize what's in a chat, you can lie about what's in a chat, what you cannot do is copy/paste a log or post a fake log that is designed to look copy-pasted.

[sweetandcool]

In case Kak isn't the kill tonight:

Keep in mind the kill might be someone who is on the right track.
But since that is way to obvious, it could also be someone who is on the wrong track.

[Kakarroto]

so yeah I pushed a bit the at the time read that brain was maf partly to see mafia react, partly to maybe survive, partly to see how brain reacts.

I'm not 100% convinced he is town since I respect brains ability to learn and adapt his mafia-play, but with his behaviour on D1 and also N1 it looks probable brain is town and I think his explanation makes sense. That said, I do think there is a tiny possibility he is maf, so don't tread brain as cleared. Still, I'd say he is a strong townlean.

I'm also pretty sure Jamie is town. His case on brain looked very good to me and resonated with what I saw at the time, so I'm having a good feeling here. Also, it seems jamie can only be mafia with so many people, so as I said, if you build on that, you might get jamie towncleared.

I think the math thing, where the probabilities don't match each other, is something to get behind aaro and damo. It seems aaro is 'writing something up' so lets see. With how they both behaved to that regard, my feeling says that aaro is more likely mafia than damo, if only one is. My head though recalls the game with bozo where I mafread bozo until near the end where we got damo, so big stances that results in fights and defy others was a townthing then, so maybe it's here too. So in that case, damo was quite less belliterant, so maybe damo is more likely than aaro to be mafia. Well, there is a chance, none of them is mafia. Regarding both of them being mafia ... hmm ... I mean they could've come up with the math in maf chat (haha 'math-chat' :p ) but I don't see any other connection between damo and aaro. If you find one though, that might explain it.

I haven't had any bad feelings about chaqa this game. Chances are he fools me, but so far, in games where I had these feeling, turned out Chaqa was town. So don't take it as gospel, but a little faith in it should be warranted.

I feel much better about ghug now, though I am a bit sus by how fast he bought that I'm HB's dance partner, though then again, it is the logical thing to do and ghug is smart and can combine this things fast, so maybe I'm just wrongly paranoid. I AM playing in an extremely hot flat currently so don't hold it against me if one or two thoughts are irrationally dumb. But yeah, ghug looks much better than in my first read post.

I don't get a ping from demon, and that frightens me. I'd put demon as null read, but maybe that's not fair since demon didn't do nothing. Maybe I just can't understand demon.

I also feel like aaro's behaviour was anti, thought I'm not sure if that makes him town or maf. I lean more towards maf though.

I don't have the same feeling about sweet as last game we played, it went a bit up from before though.

Ezio is looking better with his posts, but as brain said, his votes I don't like. Idk, maybe he is mafia.

I don't have much to say about damo, so maybe that says much about damo.

visually in a list, this is regarding feelings so for you who say vecna can't be mafia, maybe, but it doesn't feel that way for me, so here we are:

worcej
jamie

Chaqa
brain
ghug

RD
sweet
ezio

damo
Demon
aaro
Vecna


also, maybe take my reads with a little grain of salt, since I kinda townread HB, though I might overplayed how much I townread him, but still. But it's still my honest opinion.

[Kakarroto]

He was exhausted. The whole night everyone wanted to dance with him. Waltz and waltz and waltz. Normally he loved too, but this wasn't exactly a time to celebrate. Sure, they got a revolutionary, and that is fine, but it was his dear Sissi, so he wanted to cry the whole night where everyone celebrated.

But it is fine, he told himself. Even if Sissi isn't here with him, he was still connected. And he knew a way of talking to his partner.

Silently, he put candles onto the tea table in his Emperor suit. One after the other, he lit them up. He put a big picture of Sissi between them into the middle and sighed. Then he slowly backed away towards their package and pulled out a Wicca-board and put it in front of the candles and picture.

"Sissi, liabe Sissi" he said, sitting in front, his hands on the board, "Sissi, oh soag ma, warum hoast des dan? Warum hoast du di mit denan zusammentuan?" A cold breeze ran through the room as he focussed on the board, waiting for a sign ...

Suddenly, a knock on the door, it made him jump up. "J.. joa? Wea is doa?" he asked a bit frightend. "Room service" a voice behind said. He asked himself when he ordered it, but probably it's the breakfast his Sissi ordered coming early, since they wanted to enjoy the start of the day together.

"An moment, I kum sho" he said and went to the door, opening it ...

[President Eden]

NIGHT HAS ENDED, PLEASE HOLD!

[President Eden]

Captain's Log
2248.10.23

Disaster struck - the Fortress laid to rest atop a frail stone column. When we activated the submersible's secondary thrusters to generate enough momentum to escape the depths, the force was too great for the column to withstand, and it collapsed, sending the wreckage careening into the abyss below. It will take several more days at a minimum to complete preparations sufficient to continue examining the wreckage.

The silver lining is that the grotto that housed the first skeleton appears to be the beginning of a large cave system. And we've found a second skeleton... also male, no items of interest, but a fascinating discovery by one of the scientists: unambiguous signs of head trauma. The skeleton was also splayed about, and at these unwelcoming depths, it seems unlikely that anyone would have disturbed its rest. Was this person murdered? And by whom?

Victor Hallmann
Commanding Officer, HMS Titan



KAKARROTO has DIED. He was a ROYALIST [town].



This thread is now open! You have 48 hours to select a kill.

[sweetandcool]

He was exhausted. The whole night everyone wanted to dance with him. Waltz and waltz and waltz. Normally he loved too, but this wasn't exactly a time to celebrate. Sure, they got a revolutionary, and that is fine, but it was his dear Sissi, so he wanted to cry the whole night where everyone celebrated.

But it is fine, he told himself. Even if Sissi isn't here with him, he was still connected. And he knew a way of talking to his partner.

Silently, he put candles onto the tea table in his Emperor suit. One after the other, he lit them up. He put a big picture of Sissi between them into the middle and sighed. Then he slowly backed away towards their package and pulled out a Wicca-board and put it in front of the candles and picture.

"Sissi, liabe Sissi" he said, sitting in front, his hands on the board, "Sissi, oh soag ma, warum hoast des dan? Warum hoast du di mit denan zusammentuan?" A cold breeze ran through the room as he focussed on the board, waiting for a sign ...

Suddenly, a knock on the door, it made him jump up. "J.. joa? Wea is doa?" he asked a bit frightend. "Room service" a voice behind said. He asked himself when he ordered it, but probably it's the breakfast his Sissi ordered coming early, since they wanted to enjoy the start of the day together.

"An moment, I kum sho" he said and went to the door, opening it ...

Wonderful flavour, I thank you.

Actually, if I sound it out in my head, the accent is surmountable and I can understand it roughly. Well written Kak!

It says: Sissi, dear Sissi.......Sissi, oh tell me, why have you done this? Why have you with it (?) together? (this is a German understanding failing, I don't recall what denan is).......Yes? Who is there?.......One moment, I'm coming (sho?).

[DemonRHK]

RIP kak

##Vote No Kill

Final Fantasy XVI kicks ass.

[Vecna]

##vote damo

[sweetandcool]

##VOTE Ezio

I would consider voting ghug or Aaro.

With enough good arguments put up, townie paranoia may kick in, in which case I'll probably revert to my Ezio read or follow worcej's lead.

[ghug]

##VOTE aaro

Chaqa and Jamie will probably be my other pet wagons.

[Ezio]

##vote Damo

[ghug]

Can someone explain the argument for damo?

[aarodactyl]

I’m debugging a legacy vlookup that’s failing for no clear reason but I want to say I’m a bit sad I spent so long writing that post up, posted it like 20 minutes before eon, and kak misses it and then scum reads me in large part due to thinking I’m fudging numbers.