M81: A Night To Remember [GAME THREAD]

[ghug]

No. It makes it worse. The only info that scum doesn’t have is which town are paired up. Which is actually stupidly important. I think explaining this more is anti town though.

Maybe we should just make all the pairs with scum in them claim, then.

that's a great idea!


how do we do that?

Well, we have two claims so far, so it follows that one of me and aaro and one of Chaqa and worcej each have to be scum.

[worcej]

FWIW Aaro, I think your statistics are overly complicated for the sake of nothing.

Reality is this - there are 3 dance partners that have scum in them and 4 that don’t. If you’re town, you have better odds that your partner is town than they are scum - act accordingly or don’t.

Worcej: Thinks it's more likely a given townie is paired with scum than is actually the case.
Also worcej: Thinks the conclusion we should draw from that is that a townie should think their partner is townier.

ghug: thinks he’s smarter than everyone else.
Also ghug: focuses on mechanics too much which is not his normal behavior as town

##vote ghug

[ghug]

FWIW Aaro, I think your statistics are overly complicated for the sake of nothing.

Reality is this - there are 3 dance partners that have scum in them and 4 that don’t. If you’re town, you have better odds that your partner is town than they are scum - act accordingly or don’t.

Worcej: Thinks it's more likely a given townie is paired with scum than is actually the case.
Also worcej: Thinks the conclusion we should draw from that is that a townie should think their partner is townier.

ghug: thinks he’s smarter than everyone else.
Also ghug: focuses on mechanics too much which is not his normal behavior as town

##vote ghug

I get unreasonably frustrated when people are wrong about facts.

[Ezio]

I think claiming our partners is beneficial generally for town, but as it is an irreversible decision I'll wait for more discussion on the topic.

[worcej]

[quote=worcej post_id=351099 time=<a href="tel:1687219112">1687219112</a> user_id=857]
[quote=ghug post_id=351094 time=<a href="tel:1687218960">1687218960</a> user_id=51]
[quote=worcej post_id=351087 time=<a href="tel:1687218792">1687218792</a> user_id=857]
FWIW Aaro, I think your statistics are overly complicated for the sake of nothing.

Reality is this - there are 3 dance partners that have scum in them and 4 that don’t. If you’re town, you have better odds that your partner is town than they are scum - act accordingly or don’t.

Worcej: Thinks it's more likely a given townie is paired with scum than is actually the case.
Also worcej: Thinks the conclusion we should draw from that is that a townie should think their partner is townier.
[/quote]ghug: thinks he’s smarter than everyone else.
Also ghug: focuses on mechanics too much which is not his normal behavior as town

##vote ghug
[/quote]

I get unreasonably frustrated when people are wrong about facts.
[/quote]I just don’t really care about getting the percentage perfectly right and am not educated enough on the nuances of exactly how Eden sorted it out.

22.7% versus 42.8% is meaningless to me. The statement that odds are my partner is most likely town than scum still stands correct.

[worcej]

FFS quote breaking is disgusting lol

[President Eden]

GM NOTE:

The separated dance partners chat is not cleared from night to night, so new joiners will see the entire history when they join.

[worcej]

GM NOTE:

The separated dance partners chat is not cleared from night to night, so new joiners will see the entire history when they join.

This is a big deal and makes claiming more valuable imho

[sweetandcool]

FWIW Aaro, I think your statistics are overly complicated for the sake of nothing.

Reality is this - there are 3 dance partners that have scum in them and 4 that don’t. If you’re town, you have better odds that your partner is town than they are scum - act accordingly or don’t.

My job is literally to be good at stuff like this. It’s also basic combinatorics.

What's your job?

[brainbomb]

Town
kakarrotto
worcej

[ghug]

FFS quote breaking is disgusting lol

Gonna quote this one instead to save us all the pain.

The key point you're missing is that everyone is more likely to be scum than town, and your partner is more likely to be scum than anyone else. They're still more likely town than not, but it's a valuable piece of information worth keeping in mind.

I probably shouldn't have claimed and I apologize to everyone if I goaded you into claiming. Let's cut it off there.

[aarodactyl]

@worcej: I’m saying the following: your partner is more likely to be scum than anyone else in the game.

You are correct that 3/11 and 3/7 are both less than 50% but that’s not the case I’m making.

[sweetandcool]

Town
kakarrotto
worcej

Ah, I see what you are doing now. Sneakily promoting an anti-town play.

##VOTE brainbomb

[aarodactyl]

FFS quote breaking is disgusting lol

Gonna quote this one instead to save us all the pain.

The key point you're missing is that everyone is more likely to be town than scum, and your partner is more likely to be scum than anyone else. They're still more likely town than not, but it's a valuable piece of information worth keeping in mind.

I probably shouldn't have claimed and I apologize to everyone if I goaded you into claiming. Let's cut it off there.

Fixed that for you.

[brainbomb]

Town
kakarrotto
worcej

Ah, I see what you are doing now. Sneakily promoting an anti-town play.

##VOTE brainbomb

By establishing people who I find towny for displaying town indicative posts?

[ghug]

Town
kakarrotto
worcej

Ah, I see what you are doing now. Sneakily promoting an anti-town play.

##VOTE brainbomb

I think he's arguing that town are more likely to make the anti-town play because they haven't thought through the scum perspective unless they're me.

[ghug]

FFS quote breaking is disgusting lol

Gonna quote this one instead to save us all the pain.

The key point you're missing is that everyone is more likely to be town than scum, and your partner is more likely to be scum than anyone else. They're still more likely town than not, but it's a valuable piece of information worth keeping in mind.

I probably shouldn't have claimed and I apologize to everyone if I goaded you into claiming. Let's cut it off there.

Fixed that for you.

Thanks babe. Let's dance real close tonight.

[aarodactyl]

Town
kakarrotto
worcej

Ah, I see what you are doing now. Sneakily promoting an anti-town play.

##VOTE brainbomb

I think he's arguing that town are more likely to make the anti-town play because they haven't thought through the scum perspective unless they're me.

It’s weird to me that people don’t overthink the setup before joining. Are you just trusting Eden that it will be fun? Novice move.

[DemonRHK]

Or he's just TR anyone on board with a massclaim lol

[brainbomb]

Town
kakarrotto
worcej

Ah, I see what you are doing now. Sneakily promoting an anti-town play.

##VOTE brainbomb

I think he's arguing that town are more likely to make the anti-town play because they haven't thought through the scum perspective unless they're me.

You think wrong. I am reading what kak and worcej are posting and concluding they just appear to be town.