MAFIA 79: The Price is Right! [GAME THREAD]

[sweetandcool]

@ Sweetandcool I don't understand why you're so annoyed about being targeted when there's not a single vote for you

Because I'm well known for being a skilled analyst. And I've spent considerable effort on my posts. And I've at least put up real arguments, whereas a lot of other players just chime in with opinions with little to no given reason. And I totally drove the Fox wagon and it's a bit insulting to be told I was safely bandwagoning.

I just wish I had the charisma to convince you to stop wasting your time focusing on me

And I'm also sad that the players I want to trust the most are the ones that trust me the least (and I trust less too). Fox, Koala, and Dousing all write out detailed arguments. Even President Eden has charisma. And yet regrettably, Fox and Koala focussed on offense instead of defense, and Dousing is totally zeroed in on me, and I suspect President Eden even though I have little to go on.

[KoalaAttack]

Why is Damo and Jamie voting Koala again?

And why is Snowy, who said this, in red

So earlier I mentioned that I was working off a worldview where Koala and rdr and scum mainly because (a: I think Koala's kinda hard confirmed b: I'm town leaning a lot of people)

still not voting for me after all the drive-by shading?

Now that I had to explain my strategy of self-voting and taken some of the bite out of it, I am going to decide my vote using this awesome machine: https://wheelofnames.com/eb6-z46

##VOTE snowy801

[Dousing]

@ Sweetandcool I don't understand why you're so annoyed about being targeted when there's not a single vote for you

Because I'm well known for being a skilled analyst. And I've spent considerable effort on my posts. And I've at least put up real arguments, whereas a lot of other players just chime in with opinions with little to no given reason. And I totally drove the Fox wagon and it's a bit insulting to be told I was safely bandwagoning.

I just wish I had the charisma to convince you to stop wasting your time focusing on me

I've put time in writing my arguments; I don't think I've "chimed in" here

[snowy801]

@Damo:

Using base 6 or base 12 (your choice), could you calculate the percentage chance of Rdrivera, Koala, and President Edam being the scum team?

I can. Zero.

100% vanilla town TM?

I have prompters for you. Give me like half an hour ish to find time to write it out

[sweetandcool]

@ Sweetandcool I don't understand why you're so annoyed about being targeted when there's not a single vote for you

Because I'm well known for being a skilled analyst. And I've spent considerable effort on my posts. And I've at least put up real arguments, whereas a lot of other players just chime in with opinions with little to no given reason. And I totally drove the Fox wagon and it's a bit insulting to be told I was safely bandwagoning.

I just wish I had the charisma to convince you to stop wasting your time focusing on me

I've put time in writing my arguments; I don't think I've "chimed in" here

Then you'll be pleased to read what I said in my subsequent post.

[President Eden]

@Damo:

Using base 6 or base 12 (your choice), could you calculate the percentage chance of Rdrivera, Koala, and President Edam being the scum team?

I can. Zero.

[rdrivera2005]

I like Snowy's increase in participation.

I dislike Rdr's absence.

Ghug is still in the top 5 posters and he's been dead for about 22 hours.

Why people keep posting about my absence when I am not lurking? I have posted ten times today and I adressed anything I have been asked. I don't usually post more then this and if you want a 50 posts a day requirement put this on the signup and I won't sign.

I think Snowy is tryng to shade me and last time he did this he was scum.

[Dousing]

Here's my list so far (decreasing order of trust)

Townies
Me
Jamie
Bozo

Neutral
Eden
Snowy
Koala

Mafia
S&C/Bona/Chaqa


**No info**
Rdr/Damo

[Dousing]

Maybe I have more info on rdr than I said initally

[rdrivera2005]

I'm definitely having trouble connecting A to B here lol

...I'm not saying I agree with him on Koala per se - more on that in a bit - I'm saying that the motivation behind this post is vastly different than what I saw when I had a behind-the-scenes view of how he operates as mafia. So I think Bona's town.

What I mean is that I don't think there's enough evidence to townread Bona based on the fact that they're now proofreading their arguments.

I mean, imagine if Bona was mafia and they decided to word vomit all over this forum like you just described.
1. You would have IMMEDIATELY called them out and
2. Koala would have tore their argument to shreds.

Furthermore, I think others would be able to learn from that game and be on the lookout for the excessive quoting that you just described.

Truth be told, I think the strategy of using a million quotes as a smokescreen to hide a flimsy argument can only work if the accuser and the accused is on the same team. Otherwise, the accused could simply point out what the accuser is doing and accuser would be caught red handed.

Like I said before, I think you're biased and there is not enough evidence to townread Bona at this point

I really like this guy. You will break my heart if you were Mafia.

[KoalaAttack]

@ Sweetandcool I don't understand why you're so annoyed about being targeted when there's not a single vote for you

Because I'm well known for being a skilled analyst. And I've spent considerable effort on my posts. And I've at least put up real arguments, whereas a lot of other players just chime in with opinions with little to no given reason. And I totally drove the Fox wagon and it's a bit insulting to be told I was safely bandwagoning.

I just wish I had the charisma to convince you to stop wasting your time focusing on me

And I'm also sad that the players I want to trust the most are the ones that trust me the least (and I trust less too). Fox, Koala, and Dousing all write out detailed arguments. Even President Eden has charisma. And yet regrettably, Fox and Koala focussed on offense instead of defense, and Dousing is totally zeroed in on me, and I suspect President Eden even though I have little to go on.

Dear Skilled Analyst – I am very confused between the two bits of your post highlighted in red. They seem kind of saying the opposite things, no? I will give you the benefit of the doubt of this just being a confusing sentence structure though ... but what exactly are you saying about your trust in these players here?

[Dousing]

Go to the peterbot. I have literally staked the anti-Eden wagon.

Let me be so bold as to put forward a definition we can mutually agree on:

to "stake" a wagon would imply ACTIVELY pushing arguments against someone to drum up votes against them. This also implies reinserting arguments against that same person into discussions if your arguments get buried under a mountain of shitposts.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think that's a reasonable definition. So lets examine EVERY one of your contributions to the anti-Eden wagon and see if you've lived up to it.


Let's see...


...ah! Here's one instance!

This is why President Eden is actually tied with Koala as my number one suspect. When I was suspecting Fox, they swooped in and encouraged that. Then, somewhere along the line, I swear they did the same thing with damo, but I can't find it. And now they are supporting a push for Chaqa.

Kind of seems like they are happily encouraging momentum against different people without actually providing much original thought. Nobody suspects them because people feel happy to be validated by them.

##VOTE President Eden

...and that's the end of it I believe!


So you've put a small explainer text next to your vote against Eden and call that "staking" a wagon?

I'd disagree; you need to actually follow up that text if you wanna truly "stake" a wagon against someone. After all, I could argue I "staked" an anti-Jamie wagon because I voted for them earlier as a laugh.

rdr and sno may have started the anti-Fox wagon, but I was the only one who really committed to it with arguments.

This is exactly my point, thanks for the help!. Your attack on Foxcastle is the exception that actually proves the rule. It was only after you were confident you can hide in the midst of a bunch of townies that you decided to target foxcastle.

Also you only "committed" to an anti-foxcastle wagon because Fox raised (justifiable) concerns about you. Doubtless, you would've just hid behind the townies had Fox not actively perused you (like a... fox... get it?)

***also GEE, when Foxcastle had "staked" a wagon against you, they actually--you know--PERUSED a line of inquiry!*** Did they simply go "I said my part, its up to the town to pick up the discussion from here"? Didn't think so...

Looking at Foxcastle's posts, I saw a genuine interest to get to the bottom of things. Looking at yours, I see lot of probing being done to feel whether anyone else picks up your argument. Two very different styles going on

And my actions garnered several sweetandcool votes on day 1.

Okay? That's because Fox was grilling you not because you heroically stood up to "stake" a wagon as you claim. That stuff kinda happens when suspicion is levied against you

What is this nonsense about me not sticking my neck out??

It's your incessant probing and probing and TL;DR

Your theories aren't organic and are overwhelmingly ephemeral; the only time you follow through on your probing accusations are when someone else takes charge.

As annoyed as I am that you are reading me so poorly, I can't really read you either way (that is, I'm neutral to you, but annoyed).

You make a good point about staking. It's unfortunate that others voted Fox before me, because from my point of view I was the first, and I certainly was the one carrying the case. Without me, I don't think the wagon would have grown to a MK. Obviously there is no way for me to prove this, but lack of peterbot at the time definitely made me feel like the first voter.

I don't recall now, but despite what I just said it is possible I did notice the other votes. However, I also caught onto the fact that a lot of the D1 votes were just jokes and nonsense in the first half, and I'm pretty sure those other two votes fell under that umbrella at the time.

Evidence: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msg?g=7 ... 1&var=vote

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msg?g=7 ... 5&var=vote

You only placed a vote on Fox after being called out yourself. You've went on offense when Fox was questioning you, exactly what you've said was a tell for Mafia members

[sweetandcool]

I like Snowy's increase in participation.

I dislike Rdr's absence.

Ghug is still in the top 5 posters and he's been dead for about 22 hours.

Why people keep posting about my absence when I am not lurking? I have posted ten times today and I adressed anything I have been asked. I don't usually post more then this and if you want a 50 posts a day requirement put this on the signup and I won't sign.

I think Snowy is tryng to shade me and last time he did this he was scum.

To be fair, this may be the most words you ever had in a post. You also did have some small interesting things to say D1, so there is that.

[Dousing]

Because I'm well known for being a skilled analyst. And I've spent considerable effort on my posts. And I've at least put up real arguments, whereas a lot of other players just chime in with opinions with little to no given reason. And I totally drove the Fox wagon and it's a bit insulting to be told I was safely bandwagoning.

I just wish I had the charisma to convince you to stop wasting your time focusing on me

And I'm also sad that the players I want to trust the most are the ones that trust me the least (and I trust less too). Fox, Koala, and Dousing all write out detailed arguments. Even President Eden has charisma. And yet regrettably, Fox and Koala focussed on offense instead of defense, and Dousing is totally zeroed in on me, and I suspect President Eden even though I have little to go on.

Dear Skilled Analyst – I am very confused between the two bits of your post highlighted in red. They seem kind of saying the opposite things, no? I will give you the benefit of the doubt of this just being a confusing sentence structure though ... but what exactly are you saying about your trust in these players here?

They're saying their trust in their former locktowns is wavering

[Dousing]

You only placed a vote on Fox after being called out yourself. You've went on offense when Fox was questioning you, exactly what you've said was a tell for Mafia members

Here's my proof http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msg?g=7 ... &var=vote

[sweetandcool]

Let me be so bold as to put forward a definition we can mutually agree on:

to "stake" a wagon would imply ACTIVELY pushing arguments against someone to drum up votes against them. This also implies reinserting arguments against that same person into discussions if your arguments get buried under a mountain of shitposts.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think that's a reasonable definition. So lets examine EVERY one of your contributions to the anti-Eden wagon and see if you've lived up to it.


Let's see...


...ah! Here's one instance!




...and that's the end of it I believe!


So you've put a small explainer text next to your vote against Eden and call that "staking" a wagon?

I'd disagree; you need to actually follow up that text if you wanna truly "stake" a wagon against someone. After all, I could argue I "staked" an anti-Jamie wagon because I voted for them earlier as a laugh.




This is exactly my point, thanks for the help!. Your attack on Foxcastle is the exception that actually proves the rule. It was only after you were confident you can hide in the midst of a bunch of townies that you decided to target foxcastle.

Also you only "committed" to an anti-foxcastle wagon because Fox raised (justifiable) concerns about you. Doubtless, you would've just hid behind the townies had Fox not actively perused you (like a... fox... get it?)

***also GEE, when Foxcastle had "staked" a wagon against you, they actually--you know--PERUSED a line of inquiry!*** Did they simply go "I said my part, its up to the town to pick up the discussion from here"? Didn't think so...

Looking at Foxcastle's posts, I saw a genuine interest to get to the bottom of things. Looking at yours, I see lot of probing being done to feel whether anyone else picks up your argument. Two very different styles going on


Okay? That's because Fox was grilling you not because you heroically stood up to "stake" a wagon as you claim. That stuff kinda happens when suspicion is levied against you


It's your incessant probing and probing and TL;DR

Your theories aren't organic and are overwhelmingly ephemeral; the only time you follow through on your probing accusations are when someone else takes charge.

As annoyed as I am that you are reading me so poorly, I can't really read you either way (that is, I'm neutral to you, but annoyed).

You make a good point about staking. It's unfortunate that others voted Fox before me, because from my point of view I was the first, and I certainly was the one carrying the case. Without me, I don't think the wagon would have grown to a MK. Obviously there is no way for me to prove this, but lack of peterbot at the time definitely made me feel like the first voter.

I don't recall now, but despite what I just said it is possible I did notice the other votes. However, I also caught onto the fact that a lot of the D1 votes were just jokes and nonsense in the first half, and I'm pretty sure those other two votes fell under that umbrella at the time.

Evidence: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msg?g=7 ... 1&var=vote

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msg?g=7 ... 5&var=vote

You only placed a vote on Fox after being called out yourself. You've went on offense when Fox was questioning you, exactly what you've said was a tell for Mafia members

You need to look at more than just vote history. Look at Fox's threads and then look at mine. I was calling them best candidate for Mafia Traitor on page 18, they voted for me on page 21. I changed my vote because of their response to my accusations was not a defense, but rather just dismissing my argument out of hand and then going on the offense against me. So their response to my accusation convinced me I was correct. Their vote against me was not the convincing part.

[Dousing]

##VOTE sweetandcool

Unlike S&C I've actually explained my position: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... d=w:337265

[KoalaAttack]

What all have you learned from these baiting sessions?

I don't need to be the one learning. I will be dead by the time I flip Town, remember?

For example – it's pretty obvious both Damo and Jamiet are annoyed by my style of play. We know this already, no news there. But one can evaluate their reactions through the lens of "authentic / usual annoyance" vs "pretend Mafia annoyance".

I mean, I can also evaluate that, and I try – but the thing is, it's my 4th game with them around (and not always as players). How many games you or some of the others on here played with Damo or Jamiet?

I do things, things generate reactions, everyone can see reactions – I'm happy with folks who know Damo or Jamiet better than me evaluate the authenticity. Of course, 3 of you are Mafia, but statistically that still lives majority-Town to do the evaluation.

--

Having said that, to answer your question, Jamiet seems similar to last game so I don't Mafia-read him ATM. Also given our Discord argument with Jamiet past last game, Jamiet is acting more or less as I would expect a Town Jamiet to act here.

Damo I'm less clear about, the ##end vote is bad Town move given the context, and Damo seems to have less hesitation in quick-judging-my-antics-as-Mafia as compared to Jamiet, which is interesting after the last game.

My suspects are now Snowy, Bona, sweetandcool, then Damo & yourself in roughly that order of decreasing confidence.

[sweetandcool]

Because I'm well known for being a skilled analyst. And I've spent considerable effort on my posts. And I've at least put up real arguments, whereas a lot of other players just chime in with opinions with little to no given reason. And I totally drove the Fox wagon and it's a bit insulting to be told I was safely bandwagoning.

I just wish I had the charisma to convince you to stop wasting your time focusing on me

And I'm also sad that the players I want to trust the most are the ones that trust me the least (and I trust less too). Fox, Koala, and Dousing all write out detailed arguments. Even President Eden has charisma. And yet regrettably, Fox and Koala focussed on offense instead of defense, and Dousing is totally zeroed in on me, and I suspect President Eden even though I have little to go on.

Dear Skilled Analyst – I am very confused between the two bits of your post highlighted in red. They seem kind of saying the opposite things, no? I will give you the benefit of the doubt of this just being a confusing sentence structure though ... but what exactly are you saying about your trust in these players here?

Sorry, you are correct that is confusing. They fit in different categories, which I tried to clarify by the subsequent list. I want(ed) to trust Fox, Koala, and Dousing because they attempt to make helpful arguments.

I did not trust Fox because their actions read Mafia to me. I do not trust Koala (although after my next Koala post and subsequent Koala response this could change) for similar reasons. I do reasonably trust Dousing, though I think they have poor judgement. Fox did not trust me. Koala does not trust me. Dousing does not trust me. As for President Eden, I think they made a comment a bit back that indicated that they have me pegged for Town, and are sad that I (along with others) do not trust them.

[Dousing]

As annoyed as I am that you are reading me so poorly, I can't really read you either way (that is, I'm neutral to you, but annoyed).

You make a good point about staking. It's unfortunate that others voted Fox before me, because from my point of view I was the first, and I certainly was the one carrying the case. Without me, I don't think the wagon would have grown to a MK. Obviously there is no way for me to prove this, but lack of peterbot at the time definitely made me feel like the first voter.

I don't recall now, but despite what I just said it is possible I did notice the other votes. However, I also caught onto the fact that a lot of the D1 votes were just jokes and nonsense in the first half, and I'm pretty sure those other two votes fell under that umbrella at the time.

Evidence: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msg?g=7 ... 1&var=vote

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msg?g=7 ... 5&var=vote

You only placed a vote on Fox after being called out yourself. You've went on offense when Fox was questioning you, exactly what you've said was a tell for Mafia members

You need to look at more than just vote history. Look at Fox's threads and then look at mine. I was calling them best candidate for Mafia Traitor on page 18, they voted for me on page 21. I changed my vote because of their response to my accusations was not a defense, but rather just dismissing my argument out of hand and then going on the offense against me. So their response to my accusation convinced me I was correct. Their vote against me was not the convincing part.

Okay yes, I see your point but Fox's argument was that you were already steering the vote with flimsy evidence (Koala's self-vote which you've never seemed to let go of).

Truth be told, Fox was correct in their assessment and let's not forget their final words shall we?

MY final thoughts;

The first game I played, I rolled scum, and then my entire scum team was caught, one right after the other, the first four days of game. I went on to win, it was pretty glorious, but then a couple games later, there was another newbie player, and I could just tell he was scum because he was playing the same game I did when I was new. And I was right about that, and that's also what I'm seeing in Sweet. 
Rdr, I can't find it, but I know in past games we have done this exact thing before where you say you don't like my play and then I end up town. I can't find the specific post in a previous game where I told you to remember that, but if you message me your address, I will hand embroider a pillow cover that says "Note to Self: I can't read Foxcastle at all and I should stop voting him on Day 1."

Eden, Damo, and Bozo would be where I look after Sweet. 

Also: Really interesting how Eden went from being "tied with Koala as my number one suspect" to completely forgotten about as soon you realized nobody is biting