MAFIA 79: The Price is Right! [GAME THREAD]

[snowy801]

##vote Eden?

I really need to hear more from rdr

Why do you scumread John Henry Eden?

I'm working off this very arbitrary and frankly baseless assumption that koala and rdr are scum and trying to see who fits

Eden makes sense in my head hard to say more on the matter for now

[Dousing]

Is this sarcasm?

yes

Jamie you're locktown at the moment (please don't mess that up or I'll be permanently confused for the rest of the game)

[Jamiet99uk]

##vote Eden?

I really need to hear more from rdr

Why do you scumread John Henry Eden?

I'm working off this very arbitrary and frankly baseless assumption that koala and rdr are scum and trying to see who fits

Eden makes sense in my head hard to say more on the matter for now

Rdr / Koala / Eden scumteam...

Possible.

[Dousing]

Chaqa hasn't voted hmm

(if my posts seem decoupled from the conversation it's because I'm literally just on peterbot)

Peterbot users tying not to let people know they're using Peterbot (Impossible Challenge)

[Chaqa]

Chaqa hasn't voted hmm

(if my posts seem decoupled from the conversation it's because I'm literally just on peterbot)

I paid for 48 hours of day phase and I'm gonna use 48 hours of day phase.

I was contemplating on whether there might be a heuristic to identify traitor and it just caught my eye

Any particular reason or just it is what it is

I've always felt voting is pretty arbitrary outside of the last ~hour or so of the day. I'm coming around on EMC having the right idea after all.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Damo:

Using base 6 or base 12 (your choice), could you calculate the percentage chance of Rdrivera, Koala, and President Edam being the scum team?

[Jamiet99uk]

*President Eden

Autocorrect fail.

[Jamiet99uk]

I paid for 48 hours of day phase and I'm gonna use 48 hours of day phase.

I was contemplating on whether there might be a heuristic to identify traitor and it just caught my eye

Any particular reason or just it is what it is

I've always felt voting is pretty arbitrary outside of the last ~hour or so of the day. I'm coming around on EMC having the right idea after all.

Emc's big problem came when he missed EoD more than once.

[snowy801]

What are people's takes on bona?

On average a lot of people seemed to have warmed up considerably since yesterday, any notable causes?

[President Eden]

just piggybacking this because you fixed the quotes so I don’t have to

I think Bona’s walls here are a lot better from a signal-to-noise ratio. I know he and I engineered the situation in the previous game as mafia teammates, but everything I said then about writing to persuade was real. In the mafia chat he specifically said that he was going to include as many quotes as possible. That was done with the specific intent to make it tedious to read so most people would just go “tldr Bona big case on Eden, Eden flip scum, Bona town.” A lot of his writing in that wall would have an obnoxiously spaced quote and a drive-by comment of a few words.

Contrast to his post against Koala where he uses a url tag to cite to the message he’s concerned with, and then writes a paragraph analyzing what he thinks is interesting. Just from a formatting perspective it’s much more readable. That’s because (IMO) he actually cares about persuading people to vote Koala, whereas when he was bussing me he mostly cared about appearing to be an early adopter of the Eden wagon so that he wouldn’t look like he was bussing.

I refuse to townread someone just because they stopped shitposting

To be honest I think Eden's either

a) a member of mafia supporting an argument made by their fellow mafia without actually having to get involved or

b) just flattered someone is listening to them and has rose tinted goggles

I'm definitely having trouble connecting A to B here lol. I vaguely think you're missing what I mean, which is understandable because I'm referencing an earlier game you wouldn't have had any occasion to read, so some background for you (and I guess s&c as well, the rest of y'all were there)

A couple games back, Bona and I were mafia. At one point we concluded it was to our strategic benefit for Bona to hard bus me, because I didn't think I'd make it to the end and we needed the team to be well-positioned after my death. Bona wrote a massive tome of impressive yet bordering on unreadable length in which he used literally dozens of quote posts with a lot of drive-by comments to inflate the size of the message and make it very attention-grabbing. His objective wasn't actually to get me killed (though we expected it would have that effect) so much as it was to be loud in his push for me so that he would get locktown cred when I flipped.

Compare to this post against Koala which is orders of magnitude more readable and to the point. It's much clearer to me that he actually intends to persuade the audience.

I'm not saying I agree with him on Koala per se - more on that in a bit - I'm saying that the motivation behind this post is vastly different than what I saw when I had a behind-the-scenes view of how he operates as mafia. So I think Bona's town.

~~~

On that note, I also think the newbies are town. I don't really care to quote specific reasons why but if someone really cares to know I might make the effort. Bona town as mentioned before.

I don't know how to resolve Koala, and I think I didn't appreciate how difficult he is to read, as my prior experience consists of, IIRC, either GMing games he played or being his mafia teammate. I hadn't gotten to see what it's like to try to read him from a position of ignorance and I find it hard. He's quite good at being affable regardless of alignment (saw that last game I played with him) and he enjoys putting on personae that make it hard to sift through whether a given bit he does is just done for entertainment's sake or to mask an agenda. And the fact that his main suspect is his accuser, who I find fairly credible, doesn't help me much. Dousing's point that no one was stepping up to defend Koala gave me pause though. If Koala is mafia, then the mafia probably isn't driving much discussion or else is just failing to steer things toward others.

I have a nagging feeling Chaqa and damo could be partners based on EOD1, but I admittedly haven't paid enough attention to damo to be sure. Kind of feels like Chaqa threw out a teammate name for the hell of it and got caught in an awkward spot when the wagon actually took off. But bozo pointed out that it doesn't necessarily have to be the case that damo is mafia for Chaqa to have had motivation to jump last minute.

[snowy801]

Ok that's Eden's take on bona

[Jamiet99uk]

What are people's takes on bona?

On average a lot of people seemed to have warmed up considerably since yesterday, any notable causes?

I think he is town.

I don't think scum bona would fake all of that exchange with Koala. If he has done, that would be very impressive, frankly.

[snowy801]

There was a surge of bona votes peaking at 16 minutes out eod, 5 (with admittedly a self vote) with 3 2 sized counterwagons

Then bona voted outside those counters to koala and stayed there despite the fox damo debacle

What to think

[snowy801]

What are people's takes on bona?

On average a lot of people seemed to have warmed up considerably since yesterday, any notable causes?

I think he is town.

I don't think scum bona would fake all of that exchange with Koala. If he has done, that would be very impressive, frankly.

Weigh that against the possibility of a hard Koala bus

[snowy801]

I'm mostly exploring this because I told ghug I'd sheep him and now feel somewhat bad that I am not in fact sheeping him

(his last post indicated rdr bona jamiet in no particular order)

[dargorygel]

##GM NOTE
VOTE COUNT 2.02

KoalaAttack: (3) Bona, damo, Jamie
Chaqa: (3) bozo, Eden, rdr
President Eden: (2) sweet, snowy
snowy801: (1) Koala
Jamiet99uk: (1) Dousing

Damo666 is voting to end.

No one is set to die.

Chaqa has not voted

All players have met minimum posting requirements.
Around one day and 3 hours left.

[Dousing]

I'm currently voting President Eden, but nobody has really discussed yet whether my opinion has merit or not, but I definitely don't have huge evidence on them and won't pretend otherwise.

I reread your analysis of Eden and it makes a good deal of sense.
For reference:

This is why President Eden is actually tied with Koala as my number one suspect. When I was suspecting Fox, they swooped in and encouraged that. Then, somewhere along the line, I swear they did the same thing with damo, but I can't find it. And now they are supporting a push for Chaqa.

Kind of seems like they are happily encouraging momentum against different people without actually providing much original thought. Nobody suspects them because people feel happy to be validated by them.

##VOTE President Eden

The problem is you've just thrown out that accusation, but I don't see you committing to it. The reason you helped kill Foxcastle was because:

1. Foxcastle kept pressuring you and
2. The rest of the board jumped on the Foxcastle bandwagon on your behalf

If you were genuine in your analysis's I think you would be more developing evidence/a line of questioning more organically because currently you seem to be going:

Step one - find accusation/conspiracy
Step two - check to see if a townie is biting (if yes use townie as backup and go to step three if not go to step one)
Step three - sit back and watch as townies MK

I'm basing this on the fact that I haven't seen you actually evolve your theories organically and your really hesitant to actually put your name on the line when putting them forward.

Tbh, I suspect that--had I ignored your remark about Eden--you would just found some new theory to push in the hopes that a townie would eventually back you up.

[sweetandcool]

What are people's takes on bona?

On average a lot of people seemed to have warmed up considerably since yesterday, any notable causes?

I think he is town.

I don't think scum bona would fake all of that exchange with Koala. If he has done, that would be very impressive, frankly.

Bona is actually highest on my list for town, partly for that reason. Highest on my list being the only one on my list.

I don't trust easily.

[snowy801]

Why? Please explain, otherwise this is meaningless chatter.

of all the questions, "why" is a very curious choice

You're right, it should have been "who?!"

HMM

[President Eden]

There was a surge of bona votes peaking at 16 minutes out eod, 5 (with admittedly a self vote) with 3 2 sized counterwagons

Then bona voted outside those counters to koala and stayed there despite the fox damo debacle

What to think

his EOD1 looks townie on review.

he self-voted when there was a giant tie at 2 which catalyzed a bunch of votes toward him, in a way which I think was at least predictable enough to give scum pause for trying the same tactic. it's also not clear how this would benefit scum, whereas it created a clear flashpoint that forced people to commit (are we killing bona or not?).

then he's offered confirmed town Fox counterwagon and never moves to it despite it being a totally plausible self-defense play.

outside of "this would look townie so i did it to look townie" WIFOM there's no incentive for scum to do any of this. but it makes plenty of sense from town perspective