Finished: 05 PM Tue 09 Feb 21 UTC
Private gunboat with EOG expectation 4
1 day /phase
Pot: 105 D - Spring, 1912, Finished
Classic, No messaging, Anonymous players, Draw-Size Scoring
1 excused missed turn
Game drawn
25 Jan 21 UTC Spring, 1907: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
28 Jan 21 UTC Spring, 1908: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
08 Feb 21 UTC gg .... I couldn't decide whether this game was ready to draw but seeing as everyone else had their vote up and I think the only way was going to be down for me
08 Feb 21 UTC That sentence isn't finished but I think it still makes sense
08 Feb 21 UTC GGs!

While I'll post my actual, lengthy AAR later (probably on pastebin or something), my immediate response would be that I think it was reasonable for you to hold out on the draw, but you needed to try for the solo immediately once everyone else had their draw up. There was 2-3 turns? I think? Where Russia didn't have a draw up? I might be wrong, but during that time, you should have set up for stabbing them. Holding out on the draw when they had the ability to take 1 center off you in CON wasn't going to lead to you soloing.

And while I agree that there was more game to be played, I put my draw up because I was the most likely to get cut out of a draw, imo.
08 Feb 21 UTC Same reasoning here, France. If someone was getting whittled, it was either gonna be you or me. I just held off on draw-voting because I wanted to eliminate Germany first.
08 Feb 21 UTC GG all, by the way! I’ll begin compiling my post action report too. Boy, I thought I was toast after bungling the defense of St. Petersburg!
08 Feb 21 UTC And Austria, it was a pleasure working with you right up until the end. We accomplished a lot together
09 Feb 21 UTC Yes you both did R/A. Sorry my commitment to our alliance wasn't enough, but I understand why you did what you did. After you turned on me Italy should have allied with me (I had been sending signals for a while). Regardless, gg you 4.
09 Feb 21 UTC GG everyone!

More later, but I obviously struggled to get much traction in this one (which happens to me with Italy much more than any other power). I'm not so sure allying with Turkey would have helped much - after Autumn 1903 Turkey was in lots of trouble - but if I had concentrated West at the right moment I could probably have thrived there.
09 Feb 21 UTC Not a very interesting game for me, I’m afraid. England and France seemed intent on killing me, and Russia was cool with that.

#whateryagunnado
10 Feb 21 UTC I tried to help you, Germany; we just couldn't get our act together and properly coordinate our attacks.
10 Feb 21 UTC Good game everybody. Will we post eog’s here?

This game was all about convincing France to ally with me against Germany (sorry Germany). I decided to fully commit to a particular direction from the beginning and to hope that I could pull France along with me. It took some convincing! I’m very relieved to have survived to the draw. If I’d tried to continue it would have been to go for a solo victory and if that were even remotely possible I’m sure France would have put a stop to it. So I kept the draw flag flying and there you have it.

You guys made good use of the supports to shift the game one way or another. Very interesting.
10 Feb 21 UTC I've gone ahead and thrown my unedited notes into a Pastebin. Read at your pleasure. https://pastebin.com/P0bDP6Ca

The other things to add are
1. Germany, if England opens north, you should consider letting Russia into Sweden. You've just experienced what happens when England has no competition in Scandinavia, Russia would have been a helpful ally.

2. Every time that I'm France and Italy doesn't bounce me in Piedmont in Spring 1901, I've tried sending the army to Tyrolia. It's never worked out well in the long run. I don't think I'll ever do it again.
10 Feb 21 UTC @France, in retrospect it would have been better to let Russia in. At the time, I felt like I was going to be able to work with YOU. I was certainly trying to court your friendship. My press just didn’t entice you.

Also, the way things started in the south with Russia taking Black Sea, I was worried about Russia getting too strong. Bouncing him in Sweden was my attempt at a balancing move. If I expected an E/F ganging up on me (which was signaled immediately next with your ‘01 build) I wouldn’t have done it, but I misread the Western Triangle.
10 Feb 21 UTC Makes sense *thumbs up* I think I'm biased from the meta in the Nexus discord speedboat, where England not opening to the channel means bad times for Germany.
10 Feb 21 UTC @Germany: I see why you would be concerned about supercharging me, given that you didn't realize I was going to (initially) accept Turkey's offer of friendship. But choosing France as an ally over Russia is a very dangerous gamble, as France is by far the most powerful nation in Gunboat. Even a Russia that gets Sweden and Rumania in 1901 can still be knocked out pretty easily.

@France: yeah, I had some thoughts about that annoying army you sent into no man's land lol. I'll try to get my notes up later tonight as well
10 Feb 21 UTC @Russia, fair enough. In my defense, I did move hard on France after his build was so unfriendly. I just got completely massacred by England in the north during my attempt. Didn't really have a chance after that. A very effective strike by England.
11 Feb 21 UTC Here are my notes from the game:

https://pastebin.com/xTF5XcLH
11 Feb 21 UTC Read through your notes, France. I think it's kinda funny we were both so exasperated with each other at various points in the game. But oh well; we ultimately both survived, so no harm done.

I think one thing I learned in this game was to be much more aggressive as Russia. Let other people support you, rather than supporting them. I think I would have had a much better game had I accepted Germany's support into Sweden in 1903. Without that extra build, I was stretched incredibly thin between two fronts and just had to trust Austria not to stab me for most of the game (thank you for not doing that, Austria).

I think the A/R can definitely work in gunboat, as this game showed. But England's strength (and Italy's weakness) made it a very unstable alliance in this case. The problem was that once Italy and Turkey were gone, the only centers Austria could go for other than mine were ones over the stalemate line, which I did not want to help him get.

England: I am interested to know, had the game kept going, would you have kept attacking me, in spite of the possible Austrian solo threat?

France: I also think it was funny how we were both terrified of getting eliminated for pretty much the whole match lol. I have two questions for you. The first is: with your plan to survive in Iberia, weren't you concerned that such a plan would likely allow Austria to solo? If Austria got Tunis, and then turned on me, all he would need to win would be Munich and/or Marseilles. Maybe you thought I would be able to hold a few of my centers against him if that happened?

Also, why did you stop attacking England after Spring 1907? I guess the answer is probably "to defend against Austria," but once you stopped attacking him, it became impossible to eliminate him. I wasn't strong enough to fight him on my own. Did you already see the way things were tending by that point and figured the biggest threat was an Austrian solo?

Austria: my question for you is whether you ever contemplated stabbing me, and if so, what stayed your hand? Because boy was I worried about that for the whole game lol.
11 Feb 21 UTC Re: why give up Tunis, you've outlined part of my reasoning pretty well. If Austria get Tunis, indeed, they only need one of SPA/MAR/MUN/BER/StP to solo. Which means that England wouldn't be able to risk eliminating me in Iberia, and you would probably retreat to hold the rest of those potential 18th centers, which England would also be forced to defend you in.

That and, I never saw Austria in a good position to stab you. Or maybe the better phrase is "never in a solo-threatening position", where stabbing you would lead to a solo in 2-3 years. Imo you had too much control over former Turkey, with the gambit around CON and cutting BUL, and Austria was correctly (imo) focused on trying to push farther west, stretching out the A/R alliance until they would be able to solo with SPA/MAR.

I stopped attacking England because in S07 they tried to rotate IRI into ENG. Between this and the fact that I had setup to replace BEL with MUN, with my move to SIL, I knew I could afford to relax in the north and deal with two fleet Austria who was clearly going to come my way. You as Russia also just got the upper hand in scandi, so I knew England would have to go protect their centers up there.
11 Feb 21 UTC I suppose it's fair to say that Austria was never in a fantastic position to stab, but I WAS stretched thin for a lot of the game. And had he taken Tunis, it would only take him sending a fleet or two over to Turkey to utterly collapse my defenses. That was my great fear--I was only safe so long as Austria's navy was fighting you. But I do see your point as well.

And lol, fair, let me handle the English problem on my own. I see your rationale for doing that, though I obviously didn't like it at the time. But there was a point I was genuinely worried that BOTH of us would get eliminated and we'd be looking at an 17/17 England/Austria tie. Unlikely, of course, but I have seen that happen before.
11 Feb 21 UTC @Russia I think like France I did not see Austria as being a serious solo threat in the short run. Still, I didn’t have much appetite to try and push armies and attack Warsaw or Moscow what with such a skilled French player to my south who probably would not give me the latitude to try it. So my main goal was to neutralize st Pete’s and then pivot as many forces as I could south and attack France. First I’d have had to destroy that fleet in Bothnia. Second, France would have seen this coming a mile away. So I really was committed to the four way draw.
11 Feb 21 UTC I’m actually fairly new to gunboat and am really excited to have done as well as I did against such good players!
11 Feb 21 UTC I will write up some notes and post them, hopefully over the weekend.

In terms of stabbing Russia I did of course think about it multiple times. What ultimately stopped me was that I didn't feel like I could solo off of it like England/France said... it always felt too early. I decided that I needed to stick with the A/R at least until I made it over the stalemate line as I didn't have the power to do both at the same time.

I actually didn't really have the power just to get over the line/get the SCs I needed to then sweep up the south (well... or didn't have the skill). I tried to position myself to make it known I wanted to stick with the A/R but that also meant that I couldn't grab any SCs by surprise and any army build in Budapest would have been a clear signal of my intentions. It also meant that the minute I moved to attack I would lose Con. So I think it helped with allowing us to continue to a successful alliance for a few extra turns but also hampered my ability to ruthlessly stab

Having to slowly build the fleets and slowly filter them west was a bit of a killer though so I am not sure what the best thing to do was.

As I mentioned before I was tempted to continue to play out the game and see if I could come back. I was worried that France would push me out of Italy as I tried to counter Russia and ultimately I would end up losing out. In order to hold Italy I would probably have had to recapture an SC for every one that I lost which felt ambitious. If we had played on I was hoping England would force France to divert back north. It would have been interesting to see what happened but I must admit I thought I may end up being the one to be cut out. I think part of that was my worry I might be annoying people by dragging the game out haha


Sorry for the attack @Italy. Through 04 to 05 I very much thought I was about to feel the force of a wintergreen. Which kind of turned into a support hold wait and see what happens approach. When you moved to Eastern Med and back to Venice though I decided it was too much of an opportunity to miss

I know in your notes you said you thought I was too risk averse at this point @France. From my perspective I couldn't make an effective move on Italy as they held Tyrolia. And with Italy in Tyrolia I thought attacking Russia would have given them the perfect opportunity to move against me. Perhaps this was where I was too risk averse as all of Italy's signals were that they didn't plan to attack me. But I rationalised this by thinking that by holding Trieste I made it known that I wouldn't be giving the opportunity.
12 Feb 21 UTC Yeah, you’ve got a point, I see the Wintergreen threat more clearly now. It was Italy’s consistent poking of Munich that convinced me that they wouldn’t turn against you (Austria). It’s just a gut feeling though. It would be good to hear from Italy about the 04-05 situation.

I’m sure you’ve heard this, but never feel bad about “dragging out a game”. I had to learn not to feel bad, it’s a normal feeling. And it’s fine to feel pressured by draw votes, to be clear.
12 Feb 21 UTC For the record, had Italy attacked Austria in 1904-05, I would absolutely have jumped on board. I actually offered a support-move to Con for Italy in Autumn 1904, hoping he would get a build and then attack, but he didn't take it.
12 Feb 21 UTC @England: you definitely played well, especially for a newbie! One thing I would recommend in the future though: never leave your back open to France as England in Gunboat. It worked out for you in this game because one of France's armies was off doing nothing in no-man's land, meaning he got off to a much slower start, and because Germany didn't let me into Sweden, and because Germany's defense in Autumn 1902 failed so spectacularly. You played well, but a lot of factors contributed to your explosive success in Scandinavia; that won't happen every game. Under ordinary circumstances, committing everything to Scandinavia is and open invitation for France to invade you
12 Feb 21 UTC Hey everyone - just checking in to say you will get decent thoughts from me, tomorrow :-)
20 Feb 21 UTC Sorry for the lateness everyone. Here's my EOG (word-for-word identical to the one I just posted in the forum):

I was Italy, and overall I never made much progress, hanging around for a while but failing to expand beyond the obvious 4 centres at any point. This can happen to Italy; it has great flexibility, but the other side of that can is that if you play things wrong (and/or things don't go your way) you can end up trying multiple things and having none of them work out.

In Spring 1901, I planned to play an opening that I haven't seen written about, which in my head is called the Evil Lepanto. It was played to great effect in the final of Nexus Gunboat Season 1. The idea is that Italy plays the Lepanto, holding VEN in Spring and grabbing TRI in Autumn. Italy builds two fleets, and Austria may have little choice but to ally with them.

However, France opening to PIE made that a non-starter, because an empty VEN in Autumn 1901 and 1902 was too big a risk. Turkey bringing their fleet out also made it hard for me to attack them. Nevertheless, I decided to carry on with my Lepanto - I think it's good even if Italy doesn't want to attack Turkey, as having ION in Spring 1902 is usually good. I also wanted to be in position in case Russia attack Turkey - their fleet move to RUM was a pity.

In 1902, Turkey's fleets made an attack on them no good, and pretty much tied up both my fleets defending ION. With France in Tyrolia, my option for expansion became extremely limited. In Autumn I headed up to Tyrolia, hoping France would have an incentive to support me to MUN and get that third fleet on the board (even if I lost MUN later).

Things changed a bit in 1903, as Russia attacked Turkey. It's here that I think I had ways to force an opening, though they are more easily seen in hindsight. In Spring 1904, here were two main paths to expansion:
- Attack Turkey, aiming to get SMY and then ally with Russia against Austria.
- Attack France. I suspected (correctly) that France was looking to attack England soon, as there was a good opportunity and their expansion prospects elsewhere weren't great.

I went for the first of these. As it happens, attacking France immediately would have gone marvellously well; but I think at the time it wasn't clear. My bigger mistake - and I think my biggest of the game - came in Autumn 1904. I made an attack on SMY which was never going to work; I should have attacked CON, which would have shown Russia my hand (and indeed worked). Making a clear offer of a Wintergreen was the thing to do, and failing to do it cost me the game.

After that, there is little to say. I knew my move to EAS in Spring 1905 was a large risk; France's move was not unexpected. But I felt I had to gamble to make working with me attractive for Russia. I lost that gamble, but I think the writing was already on the wall before that.

In other EOGs, my mistake in not attacking Austria in 1904 was noted. The other suggestion was from Turkey, that I should have allied with them when Russia attacked. This I disagree with - attacking France would have worked, but actively working with Turkey against Austria had no real prospect of me making gains.

It was a well-played game overall; thanks to all my fellow players.
20 Feb 21 UTC Good breakdown, Italy! It's interesting to hear your perspective on everything.

Sorry I didn't attack Turkey earlier, lol. I thought it would look like a bit of a dick move to immediately insert the knife into the back of someone who deliberately turned their back to me on turn one. It wasn't until Austria offered me friendship that I felt comfortable going for it.

I think you can be forgiven for not going after CON in 1904; you had no way of knowing for sure that I was going to offer you a support. But as you point out the move to EAS was probably inadvisable--by that point, it was clear that I had designs on Smyrna.

It's a shame there was no way to communicate, because had you attacked Austria in 1905, rather than 1904, I would absolutely have joined the attack. But oh well; it worked out alright for me in the end :D.
20 Feb 21 UTC I'm not so sure I had great moves against Austria in 1905. You were quite far from them by then; and with France attacking me at the same time I suspect I'd have been in trouble before you could help much.

As for my mistake in 1904; I think CON is the right move even if you don't support it. It communicates with you that I want an alliance; and you might well go for that in 1905 (and perhaps build WAR not SEV). Your support fr the move just makes it all the clearer.

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

England
lpl1977 (77 D)
Drawn. Bet: 15 D, won: 26 D
11 supply-centers, 11 units
Austria
Talby2 (114 D)
Drawn. Bet: 15 D, won: 26 D
9 supply-centers, 9 units
Russia
Pinecone333 (202 D)
Drawn. Bet: 15 D, won: 26 D
8 supply-centers, 8 units
France
pyxxy (266 D)
Drawn. Bet: 15 D, won: 26 D
6 supply-centers, 6 units
Italy
teccles (1858 D)
Defeated. Bet: 15 D
Germany
Defeated. Bet: 15 D
Turkey
KalelChase (1476 D (G))
Defeated. Bet: 15 D
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