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Finished: 01 PM Sat 20 Feb 21 UTC
Private gunboat with EOG expectation 3
1 day /phase
Pot: 105 D - Spring, 1913, Finished
Classic, No messaging, Anonymous players, Draw-Size Scoring
1 excused missed turn
Game drawn
29 Jan 21 UTC Autumn, 1907: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
10 Feb 21 UTC Autumn, 1911: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
19 Feb 21 UTC Wow, I didn't expect it to end already. Good game everyone! Turkey, thank you for backing off there.

England, I was surprised you supported Germany to Belgium last turn. I am curious to know why you ordered that way.

Let me know if you guys want a play-by play of what I thinking throughout the game or how this End-Of-Game Expectation should play out.
19 Feb 21 UTC Hey, it's over! Good game. I really enjoyed this. Germany it was fun working with you for so long. Will post more soon.
19 Feb 21 UTC GG, sadly real life took over for the last two years and kinda forced my hand. Would otherwise not have played them out as I did.

Wp all
19 Feb 21 UTC I would love to see play-by-plays from you Austria, and from everybody who wants to.

I kept a journal the whole game, which is pretty lengthy. I'll probably share it on pastebin like in the other EOG games.
19 Feb 21 UTC Yeah my game journal is 15,000 words. Crikey.
19 Feb 21 UTC @Austria: so about me supporting Germany into Belgium in 1912.

If you look at the big map of spring 1912 you'll see that I ordered my fleet in English Channel to support Germany A Hol - Bel that turn. I was trying to signal Germany that he had my permission/encouragement to take Belgium to get a build that year. I thought my 10th unit didn't have much benefit at the time and a new German army build would be more useful to keep our alliance's forward momentum.

I ordered the support again in autumn 1912 just to reinforce the signal, and because my North Sea fleet didn't have anything else to do. I wasn't going to move it anywhere.

Germany's autumn 1912 moves were... not what I expected or wanted. I was caught off guard by Germany seizing as many of my centres as possible. But it sounds like Germany sort of ran out of time for the game and had to go for it then or never.
19 Feb 21 UTC Grats survivors. I've missed most of this game but kept some journal.
19 Feb 21 UTC Yea, @England you played that pretty well although you had no covering for the stab which was inevitable. When you're playing E in something like an E/G you always need to cover for a stab.

Me keeping units there should make you highly suspicious I never had any intention of continuing our alliance til the end.
19 Feb 21 UTC Thanks @Germany. I recognized the possibility of a stab but at several points during the game I decided to just accept the risk so that I could keep the momentum going. I justified the decision with two reasons.
1) I decided it would be more fun to play out this alliance further than to pull back.
2) I thought Germany did not yet have a viable path to a solo win through stabbing England.

If you read my game journal you'll see that my very last comment on the game is asking myself what Germany is aiming for now (in 1913). I was perplexed because I thought it was sufficiently clear that a stalemate line would form and prevent a German solo. I was beginning to wonder if you were aiming to eliminate me for a 4-way draw!
19 Feb 21 UTC The player who perplexed me most this game was Turkey. I thought I could make sense of most of the other players' decisions, though I did scratch my head about a few of Germany's moves.

I'm interested in everybody's EOG but Turkey in particular because there were multiple points in this game where I was totally confused by Turkey's decisions. And now I see that Turkey was played by President Eden! I read your Diplomacy Dossier on England when this game started and it helped me immensely. Though I probably made many decisions you would've advised against.
19 Feb 21 UTC Here's my play-by-play journal: https://pastebin.com/KQi7K3JH
19 Feb 21 UTC I posted my year-by-year notes in the general thread for this series.

My discussion is more cursory than it probably could be, but I find Turkey especially has very forced tactical and strategic lines of play, not just generally but in the webDip metagame particularly.

I basically felt that I wasn't getting the help I needed against Austria early, because Russia took Galicia and then sat there, so I tried to force an alliance with Austria, who understandably was disinterested. Italy was realistically never going to help me kill Austria by that point, so after trying to force action in 1908 with an extremely hamfisted and predictable attack which was well defended from Austria, I did a lot of sitting around waiting for Austria's units to be drawn north against Germany, which only happened just in time for the draw :)

I would have taken down my vote if I'd checked in on time to do it, but it's just as well that I didn't - no one likes a 4-center draw holdout.
19 Feb 21 UTC @Turkey thanks for sharing.

I don't understand your orders in Autumn, 1907. Why did you issue multiple support orders for Austrian units to invade Turkish centres? And then in Spring, 1908 flipped right back around and returned your units to position.
19 Feb 21 UTC It was really hamfisted bait. I conceded the Balkan centers because they were fundamentally indefensible at that point, but I knew it was pretty likely that Austria would just camp for the fall and not actually try to take anything else. That made the supports about the same as a hold, with an added (low) chance to tempt an inexperienced or greedy Austrian player into moving units away from the Balkans and trying to walk into Constantinople and Sevastopol.

It was very low-% to achieve anything, but even lower-% to set me back, so I figured I might as well.
19 Feb 21 UTC Interesting. I misread that totally!

In Spring, 1913 why did you back off instead of taking Moscow? My disband was meant to present you with an open invitation to occupy Moscow. I even supported Ukr - Mos.

It's clear that I'm not grasping the big-picture view of this game from Turkey's vantage point. All I was thinking of was sending a flashing neon message to Germany that a solo win would be impossible, but I gather from your POV the game wasn't over yet.
19 Feb 21 UTC So 1901 was pretty standard. I was interested in allying Russia, but wary that he took Rumania with an army, giving him a potential to attack me later, but not necessarily hostile.

1902 I blundered in that I tried for both Rumania and Bulgaria at the same time, thinking that Russia might have left his guard down and that I could dislodge the army. This mainly just ticked off the Russian who retaliated by forcing Galica and hunkering down.

in 1904, I got lucky with a push into Rumania at the same time that Turkey attacked Russia. I didn't trust the Turk, though, because he will inevitably come for me.

Honestly, I'm not sure how I got Bulgaria in 1907. I expected Turkey to defend it.

Not too much longer, Germany attacked my main man Italy. In particular, I was worried that Italy would collapse and England would make some solid gains in the Med. putting him well past the stalemate line and practically ensuring an English solo. Germany has to worry about several neighbors. England only had to worry about Italy and Germany as potential rivals. However, I had to be careful with committing to fighting Germany b/c I didn't want Turkey to gobble me up from behind.
19 Feb 21 UTC in 1907, fall, I assumed that Turkey had just given me Bulgaria and moved out of Sev to show that he recognized the solo threat. I headed west only to find Turkey returning to the my border...

I resolved to be very cautious about turning my back on Turkey again, even letting Germany take Vienna and then Trieste instead of breaking my guard against Turkey.

I think Turkey understood this message b/c he let up on my border and didn't come back so quickly this time (luckily the draw came for me).

I retook my centers from Germany and pressed against him. I was surprised to see the stab against England so early, but welcomed it b/c it relieved my fear of an English solo.
19 Feb 21 UTC In short, I think Turkey might absolutely crushed me had he waited one more turn for me to commit to my western flank with Germany before making a triple supported attack on Bulgaria in Autumn 1908. My guard was still up in 1908, but it would have lowered significantly had he not done anything that year.
20 Feb 21 UTC Interesting comments Austria!
20 Feb 21 UTC I should say Italy I really enjoyed battling you at sea. Our war of fleets was the most fun part of this game for me. Looking forward to your EOG comments.
20 Feb 21 UTC Thanks everyone for a good game. I’ll be especially interested (once I read comments and EOGs) in understanding why E/G lasted so long. Another thanks to Jasnah, who served as a sounding board and mentor, which definitely improved my play.

My strategy was based on being convinced that A/I conflict early on is fatal to both and that A would know that. I opened to Pie and Apu to demonstrate that and see what the board was looking like. I moved back to Ven in the fall to get some utility from that army and hoped A wouldn’t worry too much. I’d be interested to know A’s perspective on my moves to/from Ven and Tyr and if they ever seemed threatening. I harassed F with Pie in hopes of inducing an attack by E or G. At the end of ‘01 there hadn’t been any surprises, with R/T shaping up and E probably setting up against F. T was the big variable for my plans. I sat tight in the spring to see what others would do and based on T not sending two fleets my way and both E and G moving on F decided to go west in hopes of getting in Iberia.

With three attackers, France was doomed and I got my part of the spoils easily. A/I seemed solid enough and T wasn’t a threat, but A/T were cooperating against R. Spring ‘04 E moved north! I might have done better if I moved west a bit faster instead of making sure of Ion, but it felt critical to hold Ion, especially if A/T developed further. I also wondered about sending MAO to Iri, but didn’t want to risk F taking Spa. E, did that possibility occur to you? E’s ‘04 attempted convoy to Bel was interesting and I’d like to know what was behind it.

In ‘05 A attacked T (good) and E moved south in force. That was the start of a frustrating period with E and G tightly allied to take R out and push me back. At first I thought E would stab and then G, but no. They each left stab opportunities on the table. There was little drama in the east, with T never making a serious attempt to move west and nothing much happening between A and T. The one exception was in ‘08-’09 A appeared to allow G to cross the line and take Tri. I’m really curious about the thinking there. A turned around and pushed back successfully. T clearly realized the E/G threat early and made it clear to the board.

Germany and England, your thoughts on your alliance will be interesting. Turkey, do you feel you could have been more aggressive?

I’m sure I’m missing some important developments, but here you go. Thanks again
20 Feb 21 UTC I've posted a retrospective on the forum now.

@Italy: when did you see E having the opportunity to stab G? There was never a point in the game when I thought I had a really strong opening for a stab against G. I always thought E was much more vulnerable to G than the reverse.
20 Feb 21 UTC I've posted my journal on the forum.

@Turkey. I see now that holding in Galicia made you decide to attack me, so that backfired for me big time. I didn't know how to give you the message that I wanted to work together so I just supported Bulgaria for that.
20 Feb 21 UTC Thanks for the journal @Russia.
20 Feb 21 UTC England - first, I'm not sure I would have made any different choices than you.
Check this out: Autumn '11, build fleet Lon, take War, possibly risk Liv-Pru instead of S Mos-War, Eng-Bel, Nth-Hel/Ska, Lon-Nth, Gol-Mar. I ruled out earlier opportunities (none great, I'll admit) since the two of you were doing so well. I think we would have been looking at a smaller draw and not a solo to be sure, but if I/T/A went after each other at that point you might have had a shot. Hoping for a 17-17 draw in gunboat seems guaranteed to let the other player solo. Well played in MAO/Iberia/Med. I was struggling to slow you down even a little.
23 Feb 21 UTC Just chucking what stuff I have full notes on up here, the rest will follow when I get a chance to follow up
23 Feb 21 UTC Spring, 1901: My general thoughts on the German early game in gunboat revolves around
1. Stop an E/F
2. Don’t get 3 builds. You’re way too central to have 3 builds.
So how do I do this? I need to play England and France against each other. Belgium is the key here unless they open to the channel. I personally prefer to side with France as England is more likely to pincer you with units in France an Russia and it very much leaves your back Exposed at all times.

Other thoughts on bouncing Russia in Sweden, I don’t like it. I want war in the east not the north. I also don’t want to support him in as it will likely cause some alarm for the E/F and can even force it.

Therefore- openings.
Kiel -> Den
Ber -> Kiel
Mun SM Paris -> Bur
I’ve never run this Munich move before and am curious to see how it plays out. The risk I run is that it antagonises England too early. Hmm... some things to think about.
6 Jan 2021 Spring, 1901: Ok so here’s my thoughts. England/Germany is more likely happen than France/Germany. Therefore anti-E moves are probably not as advisable. Therefore Mun is going to hold with the intention of moving to Ruhr next turn. This is arguably anti-E however it allows me to be a touch more reactionary.
7 Jan 2021 Autumn, 1901: A01

A brief assessment indicates that France is in trouble. That being said it isn’t impossible that England goes for Belgium and Italy holds/withdraws. Therefore I don’t wanna push far into the French territory until I know that he’s actually going to have to fight two powers.

I expect F to move
Bur -> Mars
Gas -> Spain
MAO -> Portugal. This does mean he leaves breast open but E can take Belgium freely and so therefore I think this is actually a relatively safe move.

As for my moves, Kiel -> is obvious. I think Munich is safe to move to Ruhr freeing up that space and Denmark can either bounce Sweden or hold NS. I’m encouraged to hold NS as it extends the alliance offer to England means that Scandinavia gets locked down this potentially mitigating the fight for it so we can look towards France.

I think the Italians moves will be the most interesting this turn.
8 Jan 2021 Autumn, 1901: So the only surprise here is Italy (again) I guess he’s gotta commit to the west and will build F Rome. France will therefore go double fleet/A Paris. If he goes double fleet I should win against him.

England should go F London and then A somewhere. Yorkshire means they fully accept my alliance proposal.
Russia is likely to get an F in St P as there’s a juggernaut on the horizon it seems.

Overall assessment- France looks breakable. England still equivocal. Italy should be treated with caution. Biggest concern is the juggernaut.

Therefore build to crack France and delay the Russian.
F- Kiel
9 Jan 2021 Spring, 1902: Board Assessment S02

Basic alliances

Most likely to get overrun
9 Jan 2021 Spring, 1902: Basic plan, hit France, keep alliance with England although make sure he isnt pulling a fast one. Keep the Russian in check.

Moving Ruhr to Burgundy allows me to cover Silesia if required
12 Jan 2021 Spring, 1903: Two big debates here, do I support Italy into Marseilles and do I try to signal to England I want them to take St P
12 Jan 2021 Spring, 1903: General moves - get into France and hope England notices I support him towards St P
13 Jan 2021 Autumn, 1903: No real board update except what the hell is England up to, he can’t get more than Brest in France and so I assume his plan is more looking towards me, therefore I think I need to focus more on allying with the Italian. The Ionian Sea move a kinda like at face value, it shows he’s happy with his France holdings (can I eventually get mars with his blessing?) and is moving east- good for me.
13 Jan 2021 Autumn, 1903: Need to mop up France quickly and turn my focus to Russia and England.
13 Jan 2021 Autumn, 1903: Looking at the eventual England stab I love the move out of norway, both that and Belgium look easy to mop up and hopefully Brest as well.
16 Jan 2021 Spring, 1904: Do I make a move towards St P? I think so, with the south heating up its an easy center to grab.

The France advance is gonna be slow but hopefully will progress.
Curious to see what Italy does here.
21 Jan 2021 Spring, 1905: I think right now I just want to consolidate and let someone else make the first move right now.
24 Feb 21 UTC I'm enjoy reading your comments, thanks for sharing, keep it coming if you have more!

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

Nephthys (2409 D)
Drawn. Bet: 15 D, won: 21 D
12 supply-centers, 11 units
Jables (106 D)
Drawn. Bet: 15 D, won: 21 D
7 supply-centers, 7 units
Lord Farquard (186 D)
Drawn. Bet: 15 D, won: 21 D
7 supply-centers, 7 units
ColoBoy (120 D)
Drawn. Bet: 15 D, won: 21 D
4 supply-centers, 4 units
President Eden (2721 D)
Drawn. Bet: 15 D, won: 21 D
4 supply-centers, 4 units
DrugTito (1353 D)
Defeated. Bet: 15 D
Hithlum (214 D)
Defeated. Bet: 15 D
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