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Finished: 06 PM Sat 13 Feb 21 UTC
Private gunboat with EOG expectation
1 day /phase
Pot: 105 D - Autumn, 1912, Finished
Classic, No messaging, Anonymous players, Draw-Size Scoring
1 excused missed turn
Game won by AnimalsCS (181 D)
21 Jan 21 UTC Autumn, 1905: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
12 Feb 21 UTC I guess I can break my EOG into a few phases:

1901 - 1905: I was mainly concerned about preventing a Lepanto which Italy seemed to be intent on. This didn't seem to be too challenging as Austria didn't play along, but I also did not have much scope to push against Italy while Austria had Greece, even if I were willing to expose my flank a lot. So I think my stab against Austria in 1905 was inevitable.

1905-1907: The stab against Austria worked well actually (even though I was worried it would have been very predictable), but my exposed flank came back to haunt me as Russia made their move. Since we had a common enemy in Austria at this point, I wonder if Russia would have attacked if they had known I would stab Austria in the same turn. In any case, I decided to prioritize my home SCs rather than try to hold on to Balkan, while trying to make nice with Austria. What I found really strange was that Russia kept on going with the futile attack for several years, which I think spoiled both of our games. Why not use that army in Armenia to defend your home SCs?

1907-end: My fate was pretty much sealed once Italy got that army in Syria, it was only a matter of time. As above, I don't understand why Russia kept supporting Italy at this point, while letting Sev go. Later, once Italy got stabbed, we managed to form an uneasy alliance with Russia to try to hold off Austria, but with the number of units Austria brought over, it was only a matter of time. Which takes me to my next point of question - why prioritize taking those SCs instead of trying to achieve a draw? Wouldn't that fleet in Con have been more useful establishing a stalemate line?

In the end, I feel quite unfortunate that I lost the end game by one turn and got "defeated" instead of "survived" :(

Not the most detailed EOG, but I guess I spent most of the game with 1-2 units. Happy to elaborate if anyone has questions.
12 Feb 21 UTC Hey Turkey, it says your Survived with the one unit in Black Sea, if that's any consolation
12 Feb 21 UTC oh, that made my day!!! :D
12 Feb 21 UTC I have a lot of notes that I’ll post once I get off work. However I had two takeaways: 1) turkey reads bored brothers blog and 2) there was no way Austria could stab be at the end and still stop Germany from taking Tunis. The only way for them to get part of the win was to let me live. Instead they didn’t stop attacking me and instead cut my support that would have stopped Germany from winning.
12 Feb 21 UTC Oh wow. I didn’t notice until just now that Germany got Warsaw.
12 Feb 21 UTC I kept a journal which I can share with anyone interested. @Turkey, I really tried to get you as an ally and move together at Russia. Italy was all over the place and after the move against you I thought we had found a common goal so I moved units to strike at Italy together. Then your stab came. I thought maybe Russia and I could move against you, but Russia continued the futile attacks on Rumania.
12 Feb 21 UTC I can try to explain why I was all over the place but I also think that’s what a good Italy does. When I stopped attacking you to focus on making a wall against Germany, that should have been a signal to stop fighting
12 Feb 21 UTC Also gg Germany. Very nice job
12 Feb 21 UTC I am not happy about my endgame. Things happended much slower than I thought and I made some mistakes; a misorder on Naples and the loss of Warsaw among them.
12 Feb 21 UTC I also have a journal I need to tidy up before I post, probably tomorrow, but it might be Monday. Thanks for the game though, it has been a trip
12 Feb 21 UTC Here is an EOG Summary from me. I can post more detailed notes if people want. In the other game they used pastebin.com to post notes.

1901-1903: I was getting attacked from all sides, but finally Germany attacked England and built a 3rd fleet. With 1 fleet and 3 armies, I chose to try to ally England against Germany.

1904-1907 : I fought my way up to 6 centers, but Germany got an army into Britain and England was going down. There was a key move in spring 1907 where both England and I tried to support one another into North Sea. Not sure if that would have made much difference in the end.

1908-1912: I was basically just trying to survive to the end game, and be as annoying as possible for Germany. My hope was to slip into a draw. In Autumn 1911, I thought the best chance to do that was to move to North Africa and get some support into Tunis. Then after seeing Austria and Italy continuing to fight each other, I knew that wasn't going to happen and that Germany was just going to win.

Austria didn't seem to make any attempt to draw.
12 Feb 21 UTC As Austria I was desperately seeking an ally. I really like the thougths of my neighbours on the signals I tried to give.
12 Feb 21 UTC @austria: Early game, you were siding with turkey a lot. That’s not a great move for Austria since turkey will probably stab you. My move to Tyrolia was anti Germany. However I realized you thought it was attacking you so I had to follow through with attacking you.

Late game, you needed to stop attacking us and form a stalemate line against Germany. It doesn’t matter who allies with who. All that matters is board state and your only way not to lose was to work with us.

All that being said, I don’t blame you. This is a learning game so I’m pointing out what I perceive as bad plays for the sake of learning, not because I’m upset
12 Feb 21 UTC In the last few years, the most important center on the board was Tunis which is why I focused on taking it back from you. Once you let Germany take it from me, the game was over
12 Feb 21 UTC Here is my formatted AAR which was just copied-and-pasted from the Notes section for this game, which I used to type up my thoughts each turn:
12 Feb 21 UTC I must apologize both about the length (>4500 words total!) and the stream-of-consciousness format which I have no doubt is both confusing to read and ends up not covering all of my thoughts and intuitions.
12 Feb 21 UTC I think the most fun I have ever had playing gunboat was in the middle of this game when England and France were both quite powerful. That was really tricky and stressful because both of you were making good plays.
12 Feb 21 UTC https://pastebin.com/LhivX13F
12 Feb 21 UTC I got way busier so my turn my turn analysis stopped after 1903 I think. However I think the opening is the most interesting part anyways
12 Feb 21 UTC @austria: I agree with Italy's assessment. An alliance with a southbound Turkey when you hold Greece is going to lead to a stab. I also think you could have focused on stalemate more in the end game - there was really no point to trying to take SCs from me and Russia in the southeast when Germany was on their way to solo. We would have stayed in our corner.
12 Feb 21 UTC Thanks for sharing those journals, I'll post mine soon. Did a quick read on Germany and I agree that I should have changed direction in 1907. I remember being in doubt to do so. As said earlier my endgame could use much improvement and the stalemate line is mandatory study for me :)
12 Feb 21 UTC I also wanted to elaborate on why I took the roundabout way to take Greece via Apu, rather than directly - I think this was quite important in the end since the Russian stab may not have been coming earlier.

Basically, I wanted to take Gre with an army and quickly follow up to Serbia. This would have required a convoy, and two supports since Ser was support holding. I was not confident that ION's support would not be cut off, so it felt safer convoying via Apu. It also gave me the option value to move against Italy and not stab, in case the Italian armies remained far away. In the end that didn't work out -because Tyrolia was not clashed out of Ven by Tri (that was low chance anyway), and because Austria killed the Albania army and gave Italy a new build in Rom (that one I was more helpful wouldn't happen).

So I think I made the right move given what I knew at the time, but of course with hindsight it would have worked out better to take Greece in Autumn 1904 and usea new build to deter Russia.
12 Feb 21 UTC @austria: https://brotherbored.com/gunboat-diplomacy-stalemate-lines/
12 Feb 21 UTC Good win Germany. First thoughts...I'll read everything above next :-)

I decided to open against France in hopes of allying with Germany. That seemed to be off to a good start with France unable to build a fleet in ‘01 and Sweden vacant. Germany didn’t build F Kie and moved on France in ‘02, but also decided to take Sweden from me in the fall. I’d like to know the thinking about that with E/G off to a good start. I shouldn’t have continued against France at that point, but hoped to take advantage of the success against France to grab Iberia. I mistakenly thought I could hold off Germany if that turned into a full conflict. ‘03 was critical as I got a bit out of position in MAO and was fooled by Germany moving against Russia and France into thinking I wasn’t also a current target. My attack on Germany was anticipated and weak. I hoped to generate interest in others piling on against Germany, but no success.

Mid ‘04 I noted that I was probably done for without someone besides France moving on Germany. I also should have vacated Bre earlier and tried harder to ally with France immediately. Germany got far enough against me to induce France to walk in the back door. From there I was all about trying to make it hard enough for Germany that someone would attack.

Austria, I thought you had a good shot at the solo if you’d moved against Germany in ‘09. Why’d you decide to build a fleet in ‘08 and move on Italy instead of Germany? Germany was clearly taking the whole west at that point I thought.
13 Feb 21 UTC Nice journal Germany! Good advice about my predictability as well, thanks. I was surprised to get Swe, but don't see it as Germany's in an E/G at all. That's where it went wrong for us working together to be sure.
13 Feb 21 UTC As England, I think Sweden is an absolute necessary for an EG. As Germany, I think Sweden is a pretty important center that will put you in the driver's seat in the alliance. I figured here I could get away with taking it because you were likely going to make faster progress in France and this was a way to stay even. Usually, Italy moving away from France means that England gets the advantage in the EG and I wanted to avoid that.
13 Feb 21 UTC I've been reading some of your detailed notes and learned a lot, so I posted mine as well: https://pastebin.com/ESAS3juN
13 Feb 21 UTC Awesome journal France. Enjoyed reading it!
13 Feb 21 UTC @England, I thought I needed an extra fleet to secure ION.
@Italy, why did you attack my fleet and not defend Tunis against Germany S1911?
13 Feb 21 UTC I realised I didn't post my journal link here. So https://pastebin.com/EgkXnVL0
13 Feb 21 UTC Thanks for the full journals everyone. Happy to answer any questions and especially receive any more advice, observations, comments.
14 Feb 21 UTC https://pastebin.com/MU6Gb38D
This is my thoughts as I was going through the game. I'll have a proper look through what people have said soon and have a proper chat with you lovely people
14 Feb 21 UTC @austria. I did defend Tunis. You cut support.
14 Feb 21 UTC I attacked you in Ionian because I wanted to make it harder for you cut me out of the draw
14 Feb 21 UTC @Italy, You're right, not sure what I was thinking there.
14 Feb 21 UTC Nice read Russia. Especially your thoughts on my moves gave me more insight. Seems I got lucky that Turkey didn't go juggernaut with you. Your attack on Turkey was a life saver, but keep on attacking me? I would have worked with you against Turkey.
14 Feb 21 UTC It was a stupid choice, I figured Austria would be a lifelong enemy given our history to that point, and that I had a chance at two centres. I talked myself into being greedy and it backfired, massively
14 Feb 21 UTC So you kept on attacking me from Armenia to make friends with Italy, who you had no other common border with, while losing your home SCs? Does that seem wise now?

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

AnimalsCS (181 D)
Won. Bet: 15 D, won: 105 D
19 supply-centers, 15 units
Hithlum (214 D)
Survived. Bet: 15 D
14 supply-centers, 13 units
Brinbino (193 D)
Survived. Bet: 15 D
1 supply-centers, 1 units
aarodactyl (270 D)
Survived. Bet: 15 D
0 supply-centers, 1 units
anlari (8640 D)
Survived. Bet: 15 D
0 supply-centers, 1 units
ColoBoy (120 D)
Defeated. Bet: 15 D
tr1285 (183 D)
Defeated. Bet: 15 D
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