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- : Re: V Web diplomacy ego's
@Yonni: Student Teaching at a local HS. I log on and check messages and the forum.
I would like to return in here to webdip in early May - : Re: Is this the new web dip record?
I have record of a 1905 Russian solo. Dunno which game it was, but it was from years ago, and I don't have a link to it. It's in my diplomacy stats report. - : Re: V Web diplomacy ego's
One issue I think that will play into this is that the games on v-dip are not nearly as well designed as the classic version. This flaw changes things quite. After all, the classic game had many revisions, countless playtests and serious consideration before it even got finalized. the biggest issue i have with variants is that each country borders so many other countries that many of the maps are just a mosh-pit of attacks and supports. there are far fewer borders. sea zones are the same way. this changes the game dynamically.
Given this, we're really talking about two entirely different games that have some common threads. people are trying to compare apples to oranges on this.
now, if you have a large enough pool of classic games on v-dip that you can compare stats, then you might have something. - : Re: SoW Winter 2012 Game 1
Also, can I ask the professors to indicate the season that their commentary is covering? It makes it a bit difficult to tell which commentary is pertaining to which season. Labeling the commentary by season would help those of us of the community at large follow along. - : Re: SoW Winter 2012 Game 1
I gotta say, I liked goldfinger's response to #4 thoroughly and it was really concise. Thanks for the responses. - : Re: SoW Winter 2012 Game 1
I really liked slyster's response to those questions and for the most part, agree with them (with maybe a slight difference in #4). I'll wait to see how the other profs answer my questions. - : Re: On Opening Strategies
Here are my thoughts on the matter:
In the game of Diplomacy, time is not frequently an asset. Even in the tournament scene, you have to buy each year you have through hard work. Let's look at this a bit closer on another level, by example.
Let's assume you wish to see the developments of the first year before making a decision on who to work with, and you're one of the countries in the eastern sphere and the rest of the east holds that same philosophy. In the west, let's assume that the opposite is true and that sphere is working to jump a player in 1901.
What will happen is that the west will consolidate into two powers at least a full year before the east does, and the east may not have its ducks in a row, so to speak, when two western countries look to find new targets. Let's assume that it takes 4 years to finish off a western player. Starting S05 (which is really slow by most standards) Russia and Italy will begin possibly feeling pressure from the remaining two western powers who are still embroiled in a battle to consolidate down to three players, let alone two. This very well could mean that the guy on the bottom in the east will gladly work with the two significantly larger western powers to beat back the three fractured eastern ones.
Ultimately, what I'm getting at is that you have to be the first group to eliminate a player so that you have the center size necessary to take on a new foe, which could come from your sphere or even the opposite one. The last thing Italy or Russia want is to be knee-deep in a battle to eliminate Turkey when a western power attacks (or vice-versa) and they have to fight a two-front war. This makes you incredibly vulnerable.
A second reason for speed in finding a target is that you don't want to be the guy that says "let's wait and see how the first year plays out before making decisions" while the other guy says "sure, I like your plan and let's go for it" because then YOU are the one without an 01 ally.
You really want to get that jump on your enemy before someone else gets the jump on you. - : Re: Stats
I also have a large cropping of diplomacy statistics including win percentages. Lemme know if you want the stats report. You can email joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu - : Re: SoW Winter 2012 Game 1
Hi all, been a while since I've been a presence around here. My final year of school has been busy, but I thought I'd drop by and check out the forum. To make a long story short, since people (uclabb primarily) posted several wonderful questions to the last SoW I was proffing and made it really enjoyable, I'd like to do the same upon occasion. I took some time to look at the commentary and the board up to this point and want to as the professoral group the following:
1) In 1901, France bounced with Germany in Burgundy. I agree with uclabb that this was agreed upon as soon as I saw it and the fall moves, in my mind, confirmed that. Most of the professors felt that this bounce was perfectly fine and a quality defensive move. When you play Germany, is this a move you attempt to perform with France? Why? Is the same true when you play France? Also, most bounces tend to be more of a sacrifice for one player than for another. Who does this bounce hurt more, if it is an unequal trade?
2) I didn't see anyone comment on the Russian support for Turkey to the BLA. Is there a benefit for Russia in having the Turk there?
3) France build double-fleets while Germany built a fleet and an army. Since the two of them are working together, is this the best pair of builds? What would you have done differently, if anything, from the German standpoint? What are the benefits and drawbacks to a double-fleet build like France had and do the benefits outweigh the risks?
4) In S02, three players spent a good portion of their resources in large-scale bouncing. This sort of thing usually indicates some poor planning on the part of a player. Given the following bounce sets, rank these from least damaging to most damaging and indicate why: (a) England's F Lon-NTH/F NTH-SKA, (b) Germany's F Kie-Den/F Den-SKA, (c) Russia's A Rum-Bul and (d) Turkey's A Con-Bul/F BLA-Con - : Re: What a dick!
At this point, Diplomacy is really the only game there is that's worth while.
Plus, it was said best when it was said that "All's fair in love and war" - : Re: I've never had a candidate for anything personally come to my door before
I know my state senator and his family personally. He was pastor of my church, I taught his kids in a youth group and he was the guy that married my wife and I. - : Re: So I got a question, but I'm afraid it will turn into a debate.
Here's a true story about condoms:
One time I was hangin out with my buddy and he wanted to get something to eat. He said he wanted this stuff called "boil-in-a-bag rice" (never heard of it myself but he swore it was awesome rice--in the way awesome rice goes for bachelors. We went to this gas station looking for it cuz he said they might have it and we asked the attendant if they had the rice. She pointed over to a nearby wall so we went to look. We spent 5 mins looking for rice and there werent even food items on the display. The attendant must have overheard us talking about not seeing it so she comes over and is clearly irritated and says "theyre right THERE!" and points to a box of condoms.
Needless to say I have never asked for rice in a gas station since. Especially long grain. - : Re: Circles and stars
The new change I liked the most was the addition of the blue exclamation marks after people's names if they're not currently in any non-anon games. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 2.2
I'm assuming you were the one that sent it via 4 different ways? The files were empty. - : Re: Full Disclosure Final Results
After going back through game 1 heres what I thought:
Golden Blade: Turkey did have the best stab on Russia but there wasnt any real stabbing.
Cockroach goes to Italy. There were a number of times I wanted to attack him and the Triple "wasnt ready" for it and when I had a really good stab set up, he didn't take the lethal bait.
Silver Tongue for me goes to England. He seemed to have every one on his side and only at the end did Germany even really begin to worry. Looking at the press, everyone thought I was a manipulator, but England was way more and he went under the radar.
Bullet-in-the-foot definitely goes to Russia for not talking. His position could have been way stronger. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 2.2 EoG's
Sounds like a whopper. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 2.2 EoG's
Well for a small EoG, when I opened the game, I had the ability to talk to Germany for quite a while before France showed up and began talking. That put a damper on the EF from the word go. I finally got on a few minutes before the deadline, read my messages from France which detailed a plan to change my Southern Opening to a Northern Opening, but the deadline went through before my orders change did. The fall saw me leaving the Channel and France entering it which only continued to hurt any opportunity to work with France.
Throughout the fall and following spring years, I heard from several players that Germany was planning a stab and so I took the opportunity to move on Denmark which turned out to not be in my favor.
From that point, for the next several years, I didn't trust anyone and flipped back and forth between trying to defend against France and trying to defend against Russia and even gain my footing. By 1907 France was back moving my direction and I reached out to Turkey and I let him know in no uncertain terms that I would help him solo if he would move on France. At that point, goldfinger took the bait, posted a forum topic on getting others to help you solo, and moved on France. I had no real intentions of actually helping him solo because it things would have played out in one of two ways: (a) Turkey does not attack France, I get crushed and Turkey likely doesn't solo or (b) Turkey does attack France, France retreats while I gain some breathing room and I move to stop his solo, all the while not attacking France to make sure France is on my side over his. After all, I had Russia to deal with and didn't want to get bogged down fighting an unnecessary two-front war. I sent message after message to Russia with no reply, so when he moved to the MAO from the NAO without so much as a reply, it was a real shocker and at that moment, I really felt that my death had turned around and life was returning.
The game began to look like a Russian support of a Turkish solo which allowed me to talk France into turning around. I gave him London to maintain a slightly stronger fleet presence along the border, got Germany on board for a fight and things progressed for several years, although I didn't really see much in the way of center-gains.
F, G and myself coordinated fairly closely until about 1911 when I finally entertained Turkish ideas about eliminating France to reduce the draw, but it was only when the Russian stab occurred that I worked with G to keep Russia from crossing the line and forcing his current units back across the line. Once that happened, Germany and I took the opportunity to hit Turkey in his open flank to prevent him from gaining any additional ground and in 1914, I agreed that Russia could be eliminated under the assumption that Germany and I could force Turkey back into only 2 iberian centers and we would occupy Mos and War.
Then the game saw the surprise draw ending. For me, it was better than it could have been, so I'll take the 5WD. - : Re: Full Disclosure Final Results
For game 2, I also concur with the others:
Golden Blade goes to Russia for stumping the Turkish solo. It didn't net him all it could have but really chamged the dynamic of the game.
Cockroach award definitely goes to France. I had also sold you off as dead and the fact Turkey kept you around one more season while Germany and Turkey threw the surprise draw won you way more than expected.
Silver Tongue goes to Turkey because for a long time he had more than one player in his pocket.
Bullet-in-the-foot to Turkey because he had a strong solo potential and allowed both Russia and Germany into his backfield to reduce him to an 11 center draw that he couldn't come back from.
I woll post my thoughts for Game 1 soon as well as my EoG's for 2. - : Re: Full Disclosure Final Results
You should vote within your own game. Since the press isn't available for the other game, voting outside your game becomes difficult. Also, use your best judgement for best diplomat/most trusted. - : Re: Full Disclosure Final Results
Game 1: http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=89081#gamePanel
Game 2: http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=91245#gamePanel
Game 4: http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=90708#gamePanel
Best Austria: (10 centers) ghug
Best England: (8 centers) manas
Best France: (10 centers) ODaly
Best Germany: (9 centers) dipplayer 2004
Best Italy :(4 centers) Draugnar
Best Russia: (18 centers) Tru Ninja
Best Turkey: (11 centers) goldfinger0303
Also, I would like to ask for people to vote on the following awards:
Golden Blade award for the best stab
Cockroach award for survival against all odds (doesnt have to go to someone that finished the game, just to someone that survived a scenario where most would have died. They may have lost later in the game, however)
Silver Tongue award for the best diplomat/most trusted
Bullet-to-the-Foot award for the player that caused the most damage to themself (the only award where voting for yourself is permissible).
I will cast my votes after giving them some thought, especially having played in all 3 games. - : Re: I am leaving the site
It was good playing with you once again. Thanks a ton and good luck. - : Re: Associating Players with Country
I prefer France any day. - : Re: Any big time players here that I can ask a question too?
I don't really remember that song. I do remember some group singing the word 'sledge hammer' but thats it. - : Re: Associating Players with Country
No. I usually don't even pay attention to who is playing what country and most frequently refer to a person as their country while in-game and by their name in the forum. - : Re: What kind of Diplomacy player are you?
I would also take the 1 win and 6 losses. If all you manage to do is draw with everyone else on the map, what sets you apart from the rest? A win is a very difficult thing to obtain when playing against highly qualified opponents and a vast majority of games end in draws making the win even more valuable.
However, having said that, if the draws are against stiff competition and the solo is against a bunch of novices, I'd take the draws - : Re: Any big time players here that I can ask a question too?
just use google and listen to a few songs:
want you to want me (cheap trick) and
867-5390 (tommy tutone) - : Re: Giants vs. Cowboys
@therhat: I totally disagree with ejection for committing minor penalties. False starts, delay of games, etc penalties ONLY hurt the team that commits them. It put Dallas at 3rd and long instead of 3rd and short on several occasions.
The fact that NYG couldn't hold them on those 3rd downs is the reason why they lost.
Also, false starts aren't only rookie mistakes. Granted, as you play more, you're less prone to making them, but it is going to happen. The crowds get loud, you will miss a cue, or take a defensive player or two jump as an indication that the ball was snapped.
Also, on the last drive, NYG, regardless of the penalties draining the clock or not, all they had to do was simply stop them on 3rd down, which they did not do.
I do agree with goldfinger, that penalties should stop the clock. I don't care if the clock is reset or not because eventually you'll get a 3rd and 50 and then when it's 4th and 50, you're punting from 40 yards behind the original line and thus giving your opponent good field position instead of pinning them back within their own 20. - : Re: Any big time players here that I can ask a question too?
867-5309 - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1 is done.
I'm sure it will. I already have Italy's press, so thats a good sign. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1 is done.
@jmo: to be honest, I was way less manipupative than England. It may have seemed like I was more manipulative because of the poor way I handled getting you involved on a German fight, but throughout the game, England was the primary guy playimg everyone's friend and making others out to be villains.
@ Tas and Nigel: There were originally 4 games scripted to start. This was Game 1. Game 2 is still in progress, Game 3 never got started because we were missing one person and Game 4 went through to completion but never made it to press because almost no one submitted their messages and 1 player NMRd throughout the game and another went into CD. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1 is done.
@Manas: The purpose of telling Russia and getting him in on the action was to give me more leverage. Russia would naturally ally with me over you once G is reduced. That means Russia keeps you in check and gives me the power to decide who to work with, not you. It's more of a checkmate move I try to put on the board if things look worse for me than for the other guy. I have a motto about always making sure your ally has something to keep him busy, and Russia was designed to be your homework. Now, had G kept you out of Bel, like I wanted, then working with you would have been much easier and there would have no need for Russia's help. When I play Frqnce, I can almost guarantee myself a good long-term ally if England doesn't hit Bel in 01--be that ally a German player or English one, because their next build will have to come at the expense of the other guy, and with my help. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1 is done.
wow, tons of questions! I love it :) Here the answers are in order:
@Tas: I felt that England and I really nailed down a concrete plan, there was a ton of press (which could have been different had you and I really nailed down something I was comfortable with), and I really felt like it was going to work very smoothly and reduce the west quickly.
The Burgundy thing really was genuinely a mis-read on my part. Believe it or not, none of my "mistakes" were purposeful when it came to the events in the west. The fleet build in Bre should have been in Mar as well. I really believed it to be your fault until after I received your copy/paste of the press at which point I realized that we technically had agreed to DMZ it, but at that point, I felt no need to continue quibbling about it.
@Manas: there were times when Germany and I clicked really well, especially from the midgame and onward. My gut was telling me that you were really wanting to stab me but never did, so Germany was my anchor point, even more so because he shared the same fear. If I had a few more units in the midgame and Germany expressed fear of an English stab, I probably would have played on it and talked him into creating a FG v E, but for years I was stuck at 5 units with nearly all of them in the east.
@ghug: I offered for both you and Turkey to stab the other and take part in the 4-way, but he balked at it while you jumped at the opportunity. Also, I was far more pro-Turkey in the endgame but Germany and England seemed more pro-Austria, so after you accepted, I didn't push the issue.
Also, accepting the 4-way was a natural conclusion for me because I played really terribly that game and was lucky to still be a part of it, even into 1907, let alone all the way through. If everyone would have gone with eliminating you, I'd have been on board, and the same for England, but I wasn't about to attack Germany. To me, he felt like he was the only proponent of keeping me around. I used his fear of England to ensure my own survival by simply telling him that I was there for him and he and I would stick by each other.
Also, I agree with your comments to jmo and Tom. After reading the press, Russia pretty much closed up shop in talking to people as did Italy, so their demise seemed pretty natural. Tom was definitely playing into what he could to get ahead. I'm sure for the longest time he was far less fearful of the WT than anyone else. Although, I should say that from what I could tell, he was less likely to stab you and would probably have used you as a shield than you were of him. Had you not turned on Turkey, then I'm sure the natural result would have been a WT + T. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1 is done.
If I recall my press, Italy was the propogator of the Sea Lion, which never got off the ground. My press (as France) sounded anti-English, but I was pretty committed to the EF/Churchill to finish off Germany first, but when Russia tipped him off about the assault, I felt compelled to change things up and go WT. After that point, I never got into the fit of the WT, Germany and I had a rough relationship until 3/4 the way through when we had to rely on each other to ensure an English stab didn't occur.
After browsing the press of the other nations, it was pretty clear that my survival was grim at best in most parts throughout the entire game. I'm surprised no one attacked me. England was really wanting to attack me at various points and a cross between Germany not really being able to join in on the assault effectively, and me having one unit in a key location pretty much turned back the tide of my demise.
I also flip-flopped a ton in that game, really wanting to attack Italy but never really receiving the green-light from the rest of the WT. It kinda taught me that I need to go with my gut a bit more and deal with the "PR" aftermath of my decision than wait for other players to be ok with a decision I'm making.
A huge kudos to Turkey who really poured on the press throughout a big portion of the game. He should have had a better result than he was dealt.
To answer ms's question, no. The Russian move south wasn't the ticker to not go Sea Lion. I got a better feeling working with England than I did working with Germany.
FOR THOSE READING THIS PAPER: how's the format? Is it pretty easy to read and follow? Would you have done anything different putting the paper together? - : Re: Funniest reactions to stabs
My all time favorite response was "wtf is wrong with you dickface?" ...I went on to solo. - : Re: I'm back, and...
Well I need to punch the toe nail fairy in the face, then. She's prolly responsible for my wife's ingrown toe nail. I knew there was some bastard to blame. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1
Here's another update on the Full Disclosure press:
I'm nearing the finish! It has taken me quite a bit longer than I projected. I've gone through over 200 pages of press so far and I'm down to about 20 pages left to finish, which includes Italian, Russian and Turkish press from 1904-1909. I project that I'll be done within the next couple of days at which I'll proof-read everything for formatting issues, convert it to a pdf file and email it to everyone who played in this game, as well as Fortress Door who was the only player in Game 4 that sent me any press.
After a few weeks, I'll find a place to post it publicly for download so that everyone on webdip can enjoy it.
I have thought about adding the EOG's (if you can call them that) from this thread, but I'm not entirely sure if I will.
Again, a big thanks to everyone who helped me to put this together. - : Re: Apologies / explanation for my dissapearance
Wow, that's rough! Surgery and 4 CD's!
Fortunately your colon will recover, but unfortunately your games won't. Good luck to you, though! I wasn't in any of your games, but I really feel for ya. I hope you have a swift recovery and welcome back. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I will post some additional comments later on but I would like to ask the 3 remaining powers to answer this question if they would:
Each of you had a possibility of a solo at some point. If you felt that way, when was it, what do you think you did wrong that turned the game into a draw, and in this last year what was the tipping point in not continuing and trying to force something more? - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I think F Sev was a good call, Russia. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
FALL 2011
England--I'll start with the positives: I think the best thing you had working for you this season was Austria. His moves to turn and face Russia will really help you out in this game if you can take full advantage, but I get the feeling that you had less communication with him than you needed this last turn. More on that to come. I like the swap-out of the fleet for the army in StP and your fleet presence near the Iberian Peninsula. Also, your movement to the BAL was another strong move that lends to the idea that you're not giving up on a fight. In your moves, I really only have one negative and that's that you didn't try to squeeze yourself into the Med or NAf this fall. You had the opportunity but didn't take it. This is the reason I felt you didn't have the press you should have had with Austria. As soon as the Russian stab started, you should have been on the board with him getting his opinion and finding out what he would like, because my guess is that you could have at least secured the knowledge that he wasn't going to help France back into Spa which would have given you the opportunity to succeed. If the game is left as it is, you're at a disadvantage to Russia because he controls 2 centers across the line meaning he has a 1-center leeway in taking the 17 eastern ones. When I play this game and I'm nearing a solo position, I check the centers I occupy and where they're at. I've had several Russian solos and each time I controlled several northern centers which gave me the ability to not need all of the ones that I may not get. As Russia, these include Rome, Tunis, Venice and Naples because they often require additional fleets to take and any fleets built in Sev take years to get near one of these locations. That's the sort of thing you should be doing: counting the centers he needs to win, finding where he might get them from and trying to either (a) get there before he does or (b) take the centers he currently has on your side of the line thus giving you more flexibility in making errors or giving yourself the advantage in the race to the solo.
Austria: You had a pretty rough ride this last year, you're definitely not out if you know how to play the cards you currently hold and you only have to disband one unit, and in my mind it's an easy choice. Those are your very solid positives. The only bone I have to pick with you is likely a misorder and it's F GoL-Tus. I believe you probably meant for it to go to the TYN because Tus doesn't have anything for you. When I issue my orders in tense situations, I save my orders a day ahead of time and come back to them after my mind has had a time away from the game. I then reexamine the board and determine what I want my units to do and then go through my saved orders. If one of them is wrong or has changed, I have likely saved myself from making an error. If the situation isn't that tense, I often save orders pretty late in the season allowing myself to gather as much info from other players before putting something together. I'm not going to bash your play at all, and I want to see how you play things more than anyone in the year(s) to come because I see you as the pivotal player on the board.
Russia: You turned a bad situation into something much better and I have to tip my hat to you. I had several conversations with CS as of late and I wasn't much in favor of how you were doing things. A lot of that has changed. This build phase you're going to have to make them count. For that reason, I'm not predicting any builds this year to see what you decide. Two of them are obvious, but I'm looking at Sev. I also really want to see what you do this coming spring. The biggest thing you did this season was to gain Tunis and Munich. Those locations were more important than Serbia, which was really the icing on the cake, even though it came first. I'm also glad to see that you used Gal to cut support at Boh allowing you to take Mun instead of using it to take Bud. Great job this year.
France--Sorry to see you go. Things can get tense in this game and while every defeat has part to do with someplace you failed, every defeat also has some elements beyond your control. I hope your next game yields stronger results and that you learned something from your TA. Good luck. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1
Alright, I figured I'd send out an update on Game 1's press work. I have completed all of 1901 and 1902 press which is about 50% of all the press sent in the game. I'm starting 1903 today and I project being done before September. I'll send another update hopefully sometime next week. - : Re: Making map variants (mac)
Yes, there is a Game of Thrones board gamr (which I play-tested and it kinda sux) and a card game as well - : Re: wdc, bitches
I learned to play ftf first. It was amazing! After my first game, my friends set up a site where we played and someone just set up his board at home and took snapshots of the move resolutions at the end of the season, and then I came here. I will be out to some tourneys hopefully next year. We'll see. All depends on the money. - : Re: Making map variants (mac)
doh...he was banned by his own variant. - : Re: "Not right now, Lumbergh. I'm kinda busy.
What would you do if you had a million dollars?
I'll tell you what I'd do man; two chicks at the same time, man. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I looked at the past season I missed and I have a few words to say to each power:
SPRING 1911
England: I agree with uclabb. It looked as if the Austrian elimination of France would mean that France would have tried to throw the game in your favor...it didn't. Why? I'm not entirely sure. However, there's no way you can get to 18 barring someone else on the other side of the board doing something foolish, which very well could happen.
France: It really sucks that you were eliminated. If I were England, I would have simply allowed you to stay in as part of a draw once I saw that I wasn't getting past the line. I would have tried first to talk Austria into stabbing you while I held my ground to try to get you to be willing to throw the solo in my favor, and if that didn't happen, I'd call it a draw. I don't see a difference between a 3 and 4-way draw, and to cut a guy out just to whittle a draw doesn't make much sense on this site. There's not much else I can say about that.
Austria: You have a firm hold on the English position, although it looks like Russia is back at his old "crap" again with another cheap stab. I don't know if Ser was agreed upon or not, but I would doubt it. At this point, a lot of the power in stopping a solo is in your hands. I think you have a solid game, but no real opportunity to solo anywhere.
Russia: I dunno what's going on with Ser, I also think the Mos build was the worst choice you could have made because it's a full season behind any other location you could have built it at and you're locked out of StP for the rest of the game. If Ser was a stab, I think you may have well bit off more than you can chew. In an event like this, when you're not the top guy on the board, and you're as far behind the lead guy as you are, stabbing an ally is a potentially big mistake, and by big, I mean losing the game big. Several games ago, I had a solo opportunity and stabbed a guy I was working with for a long time. He turned to face me and gave another player the opportunity to catch up while I slogged through my ex-ally's territory. I made some deals with that old friend to patch things up only to stab again. I gained more ground and the other guy did as well. The situation got so bad that I lost my opportunity to solo, played on the defensive to prevent the other guy from soloing, and my partner regularly feared I would stab him again and threw the game. I lost with 16 centers. It taught me a valuable lesson that I had to learn the hard way. To me, this move was one of those lessons.
That said, if it wasn't a stab, and it was agreed upon (which I doubt), then I have nothing really to say. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I totally agree with Tom on this one. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
SPRING 1910
There has been quite a bit of flip-flopping in play as of late and just as something switches up in the prior season, it switches again, but this time to something a little more stable.
For this season, I will pretty much just post my thoughts because I believe position is irrelevant. It appears that the three nations of France, Austria and Russia have banded together to lock England out of the Mediterranean, and it is my firm belief that this sort of consolidation was the best choice they could have made. Had Austria continued to be at war with any nation, it would have spelled a possible English solo. If Austria had continued to fight with Russia, France would have been alone to take on England, and Russia would have had the upper-hand (slightly) in the RvA fight, thus fleets would have been reduced along the line where they were instead needed. Had Austria continued to fight France, it would have meant at some point Austria would have been supporting English units across the line.
Here are the reasons I see what I'm seeing: Austria has backed off of Russia which indicates that there was quite a bit of conversation going on between the two of them. In addition, Russia supported Austria back into Munich. In addition to all of this, Austrian fleets sailed with French fleets to act as supports giving them the necessary units to at least hold down the line. This means that England will be attempting to fight the impossible. From this point on, I believe England will be merely scraping together the remainder of French territory that he can, but it will only likely mean that he is the top player in a 4-way draw. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I totally agree with uclabb. I had posted much of those same thoughts throughout my SoW commentary about how England frequently gave up the possibility of a solo at various points. The first, as you said, was in Russia where he lost it since he refused to move an army over there when Germany was sealed off by Austria. He lost it a second time by not using the A vs F as a reason to side with Austria and move on France when Austria would have gladly taken the help. He has since lost it a third time because now F and A are working together and England's fleets are not in position to push him into the Med and as long as they control the fleet advantage, they can easily lock him out. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1
I have everyone's press except Italy at this point. I'm going to begin putting the press together. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
FALL & WINTER 1909
This season was a good year for one player, a less-than-stellar year for a few more and a great start/bad finish for the last. Having seen uclabb's post, I can already say that I agree with most of it already, and I'll wait to see what he posts before discussing much of my opinions.
England--This was a pretty good year for you, you netted two builds and a stronger position against France. In the years to come, I expect that you will be able to take most of the remainder of his centers, up to and including German centers. I do not, however, believe that you'll make it past Iberia. As I posted in earlier portions of the game, you barred yourself out of Russian areas by having a fleet in StP instead of an army at critical points, German passage was barred by a lack of an army presence on the mainland, and Iberia was, in my opinion, your only shot. I believe that this has now been closed to you. It can take up 3 fleets to lock it down and bar you access to the east and France has two fleets there already, and in order to force them to need more fleets, you'd need to have fleets positioned in the east already, and you simply don't have that. This means that your good year was simply that--good.
Russia--Your year started off really good and I expected that you would have a great finish, but things went sour in the fall. jmo sent me a message about not liking the build, and I agreed with that assessment. My thoughts were simply that it looked good in theory but it was missing elements to be really effective. Your fall moves played a big part in that decision. My guess is that you expected a convoy from Nwy to Germany for England and that didn't happen and the movement to Warsaw was to simply cover it from an Austrian move. However, the first issue came at the fact you gained 2 builds but can only place one on the map. Had you not moved Ukr-Mos, your army build could have been placed in Mos and would have accomplished the same thing while not abandoning your southern centers in the process. I'm not sure what the diplomacy contained this last season, but the switch to a AF was pretty much predicted and now you could be facing a 8-center Austria against your 9-unit self. The fleet build could have been a really good move to out-man the Austrian army but given that you could face some difficulty in getting it out into the open, the fleet build only really set you back in defense where another army would have been a bit more beneficial.
I will say that if you had kept more armies in the south, nabbed an army build in War or Mos, then the fleet in Sev was a good idea.
Austria--You've got a good spot in that it has the ability to really put Russia in a sour spot and it's clear France has backed off allowing you the power to use almost all of your force against him. I think out of the board, your fall moves were among the best on the map, and your position has drastically improved. I'm still not sure how things will shift in the south-east between you and Russia, but this next year will tell.
France--This was a rough year for you, but I agree with your disbands. I think it solidified an Austrian ally, and I'm glad that you chose not to try to continue to take centers from Austria in order to maintain a bit more control on your home centers. You've still got some work to do, but I think that things won't turn out to be too terrible. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Ill comment tonight. Sorry for the delay. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
SPRING 1909
Wow what a season! There's quite a bit to talk about, here. I know I say that about every season, but there are some truely meaty chunks. I hope everyone straps on their running shoes, so let's get rolling.
England--I can't possibly dispute your top-of-the-board season. You timed your stab wonderfully, and it paid off big-time! The builds were great last build phase, the lies you must have been telling France were great, your position going into this season was great, and so was your follow-through. You managed to stab France for two, which, given his position is going to be the best stab all game. As jmo said, it was a great move to convoy both armies to French territory. Most of the time, I prefer my stabs to come in the fall, but this stab was best pulled off in the Spring because your fall moves won't really contain additional growth, but rather will be used to set yourself up for the coming year.
Russia--Well, you dropped a bit but not far. I still really like your position as you've set yourself up for at least one build, possibly two, although I won't count any chickens before they hatch. I like the moves you made with your southern fleet. It should have been in the BLA this whole time with an army in Rum, but as it stands, it's back to where it should be. I will say, though, that I believe very strongly that you're neglecting some other areas that will very soon be vital to this game and you should be talking to several players at current because you have the ability to take advantage of some situations on the map and if you allow it to slip by, could mean a bigger difference than you want to see. With Austria supporting Turkey, you'll still have 10 units to square off against and I highly doubt that Austria will have to worry about France any longer, meaning that your 9 will fight a combined force of 10, but you have some measure of advantage in that your 9 are all controlled by you and I will almost always prefer to have that kind of advantage because that's a big part of how solos are made--having a fractured group of players trying to stop you. The more people you have in the mix, the less cohesive they are and there's a bigger chance for a misorder, NMR, miscommunication, or a host of problems that simply aren't there, or there to the degree that they are when one player controls all the units. Let's see what kind of advantage you're working with once the Fall season comes to a close.
Austria--This was a really great season for you! The English stab of the French means that you'll have far less to worry about. That, combined with the addition of the Turkish army will no doubt help your cause. You'll still have to put a lot of thought into this next season's moves in addition to putting in extra time at the diplomatic table to sort through the muck. I have to really applaud you for your efforts at pushing back the French. You picked a great series of moves and it will have been worth far more than just one season's protection. Your biggest fear is how to regain some of your footing. You should be spending some time to try to out-think Russia because this season will be about making sure you have some points of advantage going into next year.
France--Well, the bad disband and double-armies of England should have been screaming "stab" in your head. In the stock market, they say that you should never put everything you have into one company, and the same holds true here. Everything you had was banking on gains from Austria. So much so that you neglected your home front with an English fleet in the ENG, and two army builds you knew had to strike land someplace. Given the fact that England has a fleet stationed on StP nc and Russia supported England into Kiel, this should have given you the notion that you would be the next target. In fact, I sent a message to CS about this very thing and I will copy-paste a portion of it below:
"My guess for the SoW is that England stabs France. The fleet in StP and recall of the army (a wasted series of moves because he didn't think long-term) indicate that it won't be Russia."
These are the sort of things you should be looking for when you're playing this game. Ask yourself "what does England plan with those two armies? Where will they make landfall? Does his current position back up that claim? Do I have enough units in place in the right spots if I'm really the target?" If you ask yourself these sorts of questions, you'll be the target of fewer stabs in the future. Now, I mentioned that you had a lot of stock in taking an Austrian center. You had either Tri or Ven locked up as a guarantee, but greed set you back. Now, you stand to lose two and possibly gain nothing to counter those losses. In addition, you've got essentially no units in place to repel the English assault. My advice to you without going into great detail is to keep a level head and select the course of action that will net you the best defense.
Turkey--I'm glad to see you have an ally in this mess. I think that this next few seasons could possibly be an upswing for you. Unlike jmo, I like the move to Bul this season. It gives you a lot of capabilities that being in Con does not. You've taken Austria's offer of help, and it's going to mean that you'll have to try to deliver. I'm sure Austria performed the support in the chance that Russia tried to support himself into Rum, however, all is not lost and both of you could work well together for a while. - : Re: One liners
There's a sucker born every minute...and you were right on time. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Ill get to commentary tonight - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I really agree with CS, especially in part of the Russian stab, although witj a lacidasical Turkey, if he was nonresponsive, I say the best way to stab was to mask it under an offer to Audtria of genuine help in covering Rum. I do strongly agree that Rum should not have been under Austrian control. Sometimes you do want to surge ahead and cross the line while ignoring centers behind you, but that's so you can get across the line. Here, the last thing you want is to backtrack to pick up a center when your units should surge forward. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
FALL 1908
This spring held a number of developments, including builds from the prior season, that indicate additional change and a definite sway from what would have been a series of dull seasons. I will also say that the orders finalizing is preventing me from adequately commenting as I get the ability. It doesn't bother me that you all finalize, just know that it could mean I miss commentary for various phases.
Russia: While my view of the southern situation is different from that of CS, I will start by discussing that, and then get to the Austrian stab. I believe you have the top spot on the map because you currently have the best current unit-setup to turn something mediocre into something big. Starting with the Turkish situation, my guess is that you weren't trying to eliminate Turkey this season, but it appears that you were offering him a move to Bul, and/or expected him to bite on one. Your clear motivation was more the Austrian stab that will have changed the layout of the endgame in a pretty major way. However, I do agree with CS in that if your goal was to eliminate Turkey, there were far better ways to go about it, including keeping your fleet in Ank in the spring and supporting your army into Con in the fall, thus forcing Turkey out of the game between your three southern units, or at least into Rum. Now, there are great stabs and bad ones. Really bad stabs are those that are botched or end up with the other guy not losing anything and you not gaining anything. Great stabs are those that see you going up and your opponent going down or those that set themselves up for future stabs. This one was more in-between. I do agree with it, but there were essentially two ways I see you could have gone about it. The preferred method would have been to talk to Austria and convince him that you would cover Bul against Turkey with your fleet and Rum army, talk to Turkey about not moving there and making it worth his while, and then moving A Rum-Bul and F BLA-Ank. You could have used the excuse that you made a last-minute decision to cover Ank in case Turkey attacked there and that you were using Rum to bounce him and you took Rum by "accident" and that you'll make it up to him with a build. Going about the stab in this way nets you one center, only irritates Austria but doesn't cue him in on the stab and forces him to continue to focus on stopping France. Any time you can stab someone and lace it with a lie that allows you to setup for another stab is really, in my opinion, the best way to go about it. The other way to stab would have been for BLA to also go to Rum and simply talk Turkey into not going there. At this point, Turkey is most likely apathetic as to what's going on and he's not likely talking to anyone and only marginally interested in making short-term deals. He probably logs on, fills in an order if he has to in order to stay alive, and then goes on to another game or logs off. If you can go up while Austria goes down, that's the best benefit. At this point, there's a pretty good possibility that he will throw everything he has at you and ignore the EF which tips the scale in someone else's favor, and all you really got was one center from the deal in exchange for a new enemy. Now, I'd have still stabbed Austria myself, so I'm not going to criticize your efforts on that. I also think that your second build should have been a fleet in Sev and not another army. You'll need fleets pretty soon.
England--You're in a really strong second place. I still really disagree with the production of fleets but I think that the double army build has been your best build phase yet. It appears as if this game could come down to a race to solo. I'm surprised to see Russia support you into Kiel, but I expect to see the moves both you and Russia put on really change some things on the board and alter some alliances.
France--Excellent moves this season, although I expect the dynamic of the board to change quite a bit in the next season. Although if things play out really well, between yours and Russia's units, you both can make quick work of him. It's up to you to decide what to make of last season's moves and builds and go from there.
Austria--Well, I figured there might have been a Russian stab in the works, and that in addition to your regular failure to not secure Tyrolia, you've gone down in the rankings. There's no telling what next season may hold because there are sevearl changes that have been made that definitely indicate some things to come, but if some of those changes aren't made, you're going to be in a world of hurt. There was no reasons to support a hold on Ven and you could have at least spent some effort to support Tus to Pie. That would have locked France out instead of allowing him regular progress against you. Now just about every center you control is threatened and you've got two guys looking to take them. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
SPRING 1908
I do believe this game is back into 4-way draw mode with two countries having just a final few seasons left on the map. Support holds and support moves have generally indicated the flow of the game so I'll see what becomes of the next year.
England--Still on top and expecting another build from a German center, I still feel you're missing some play left in your game. As a general rule, once a game looks as if a 4-way or 3-way will play out, I don't believe in whittling a draw for a scant few GR points, but if I believe working on whittling a draw will allow me the opportunity to solo, then I'm all for it. The biggest and undisputed key that a player has to have in order to solo is to have an open eye for opportunity. Frequently, the window of opportunity is so subtle, it can be overlooked by those that don't know what to look for, or more importantly, how to set one up. In order to solo, a player has to play in both sides of the board and you have to prepare other players for your solo opportunity in a way that theu welcome it, but don't see it as it is. Often, this takes form in talking to those in a crippled position, or have the ability to lock you out to simply allow you into spaces critical to success because your being there serves a greater benefit to them in the present. In other words, you want to find the guy who is so selfish that all he cares about is that he gets out of whatever situation he's in and he doesn't care or see that it could mean you could win. All of us hit that selfish stage under the right conditions, and I believe that in every map, someone is always at that point. That doesn't mean that the guy in that position is in any place to "help" you solo, but someone is always at that juncture, beginning with the first attacks on the board. These are the subtle things you have to begin to key in on that I think you're missing. That, and having the right units in the right spots.
Austria--If you take a build this season, you will have solidified your spot in second and won't have to worry about moving downward, especially if France drops one as a result. I really liked the use of Apu to take Nap instead of the ION because had you used the ION, it would have bounced. It was still a good call for France to make by storming the ION, but it was even better for you to out-wit him at it. I'm kinda 50-50 about the support of Ber. On the one hand, it's the way to go if you don't have any intention of working with Germany, and I agree with the decision to not do so because he ditched a pretty vital unit for you, but I hope that this season doesn't result in you gaining Nap and losing elsewhere along the Turkish border. There are always things at stake, and sometimes a set of moves is a big gamble. I'm going to leave this alone instead of going into detail and will confer some additional thoughts with the other profs to see how much we are in agreement. On another note, it was quite a gamble to not cover Tyr, but it clearly didn't lead to anything. As I said in a prior year to Frqnce, Tyr is one of those key zones. In the mid and late game, someone is almost always in it, or trying to fight for it, and in my opinion, it's one of the non-center power zones. Just a warning to be careful.
Russia--I believe pretty strongly that you've moved up. I really like your position, and not by any small margin. You could very well be a contender for second place. First off, if you just play conservatively, you've got 2 builds coming to you, and if you play things really well, you could have 3. You also have a lot of future potential. I won't count your chickens before they hatch, so we will see how the Fall fares for you, because you could still only have one build coming to you.
France--Your slide down one spot was more due to circumstance and a well-played Austrian move more than anything, but not entirely. Part of your fall comes from the loss of Nap whereby you don't stand to gain anything to take its place. Another (hefty) part has to do with your dependent position. There are several things that could go sour for you and cripple your world. There's a time to cut your losses, and I believe that time is here. The biggest mistake was not in your ION move, because I'd have done the same thing assuminv Austria would double-support ION in, but it comes in the move A Pie--holds. You had a huge opportunity to try for Tyr and you missed it. Had you been there, Austria would have been sweatting his balls off because you can play for Mun, Vie, Tri and if coupled with Mar-Pie, you'd have the option to try for Ven, which would have been a guarantee, plus put you in control of the boot. Now, I think your best move was to pick Germany up as an ally. Hopefully things go well this fall, because there's a lot that could occur.
Germany--Well, it looks like you'll lose a couple more this year. It's good that you nabbed a French ally, but it might be too little, too late. I can see why you opted to disband the army, and if that was your one shot at survival, I say that you made the right call. I know it was a tough choice to make. I really feel for ya.Hopefully things will continue to shift around the board to keep your chances alive.
Turkey--Nice move! This means you'll still have that army around for another year. Very well played. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
If anyone who will agree to this would send their press to joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu once they are eliminated or the game is over, that would be great. - : Re: Looking for replacement
I recommend the position as well if you're willing to submit the press afterward. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1
That's funny because I didn't trust our Triple either. I can see where you didn't trust me but I didn't trust you or England either. Looks like England had a really powerful setup going on if he would have capitalized it. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1
Also, I still need Turkish press and Italian press - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1
I wasn't overreacting to the Jug insomuch as picking a new course when our attempts to attack Germany went south. England and I had a very solid anti-German plan laid out and Russia spilled the beans and out of fear he would move to defend making our fight slower. We were telling Germany about a Triple and planning a stab instead. When Russia told him about it and then sent copy-pasted messages, we switched. The Triple was created part out of the RT that did support one another in the same seasons our anti-German plans were to set themselves in motion.
Yes, though, my fleet and army on that side of the map were very crappy moves on my part. I was expecting my army to receive support into War (which it didnt) and my fleet to fight Austria but neither Turkey nor Italy was down for it, and it floated and floated and floated until it found a target.
All I needed was confirmation from some eastern power that they would move on Austria or Italy and no one was with it until I moved on Italy and promised Austria a cut in the draw. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I've noticed that English players that are fleet-happy are that way because of a short-term necessity. They frequently move to attack Russia or France and then find that all their fleets are pushed to one side leaving vacant sea zones and then build additional fleets instead of recalling them the other direction.
If an English player is careful, they will see the end of a foe in the not-too-distant future and begin to call fleets home slowly to change direction quickly, and if it's well-planned, their new target won't really notice, or if they do, they'll be in a position to be forced to trust they won't come his way while they're busy with another player. This kind of fleet movement requires a bit of extended foresight on the part of the player and can be tough to do.
I understand the need to build fleets when you've already got plenty, but it's an urge you have to consciously fight. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
WINTER 1907
England--I put in for a fleet build because I knew you'd do it, I personally think you needed the army. There's going to come a time when your fleets will simply become congested.
France--nice build. I think you'll find that fleet pretty handy.
Germany--ouch, I hope there was some diplomacy that caused the Gas disband because to me, that was your best piece. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1
I also agree with ghug on this one. I don't feel the game was "staged" or "absurd". From my point of view, playing as France, England and I initially were going to move on Germany and had it pretty well established. After things went sour with Russia, we opted for a Western Triple. I moved pretty poorly for a good portion of the game fearing a stab at regular intervals with units spread pretty much anywhere.
The WT was formed because there was a pretty clear Juggernaut on the board early on and I had already set it up to work with England for a while. I also anticipated builds from it that I never saw. Things were also screwy when I met with some difficulty attacking Italy, Austria or Turkey. I'm not the type to play for a draw, but given the circumstances, a draw was a really good outcome for me as I had no solo potential without really giving that opportunity to another player (most likely Austria). I also needed either England to be up for stabbing Germany or Germany up for stabbing England, and to try it alone would have meant pretty poor results, and getting another player to stab wasn't there.
I'm pretty shocked England and Germany didn't stab me after Russia was gone and I was still at 5 centers while their combined center count was 13 or 14, nearly triple mine, and my units were located near Russia, Turkey and the Italian peninsula. I had one unit at home and was sweatting bulltes.
Outside, that, it was a pretty normal game that ended in a draw. We could have cut out one country bringing it to a 3-way, but that's about it. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1
I think posting an EOG here woupd be fine. I thought about including them in the finished product. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1
I can empathize...on both counts. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1
Yes, its joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu.
I received your press (England), so Im waiting for 5 more. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 1
Bump...still haven't received press. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Apparently there was an editing error. My prediction was F Bre for France and should be A War for Russia. Thanks scm - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
FALL 1907
Sorry for the delay on my commentary. Several things have interruped my ability to put this together, including my neighbor's house being shot at last night. At any rate, there have been some rather noticable changes to my rankings, and for good reason. Although no one had what I'd consider a "perfect season", several players had some really break-out years that have altered their standings from the prior season.
England--You've climbed, tooth and nail, to the top of the chart this last season. Primarily due to the fact that you were one of only two countries that saw a build this last year, but also because one move in particular has lead to some additional progress possibilities while most other players on the map did not. I should briefly say that your position isn't what I would consider perfect as uclabb and I have been discussing the events of the board behind the scenes and there were some things you could have done both last season and this season that would have really cemented some really powerful things for you that you overlooked. However, your position is still a really good one, and one that is worth putting you at the top, because the window of opportunity, while shrinking, is still possibly available to you in a future season. I don't want to dwell on the negative for long, as a majority of this commentary for you should be positive because you did have the best year by a landslide. My favorite move of yours was the gutsy NTH-Den / Den-BAL because it set you up very nicely for future seasons and it also showed that you weren't going to move defensively as you have in the past, but rather take a risk based on what you assumed Germany wouldn't do--namely, move to Denmark from Kie. For a long time this game, I have seen you play a very defensive position that has kept you from getting into a really great position which included a lot of flip-flopping of fleets between Germany and France and your F StP move. However, this move was a stark contrast to that and you should be highly commended for it. I pretty much agree with CS's assessment of your possibilities, and given the choice you made, you performed it better than what was expected. For a build, my guess would be that you'll have a fleet in Edi in play. If it's different than this, I will comment after the build phase.
Austria--Your second place position is a pretty close one to third place, however there are some stark contrasts between your position and the French one. While your navy is severely lacking in order to square off against the French navy, Austria really doesn't need more than 3 fleets on the table in order to have a solo position. Another fleet would do you good, but you can still manage some pretty good things given your current setup. I'm glad you stormed the ION instead of working with Russia to squeeze Turkey out of Smy in order to nab a build, because the ION, in my opinion, is much more valuable at this point than a single build. I "like" the taking of Mun as a means of compensating yourself for the one lost to the Turk (or really the Russian). More on this in a moment. I also think that you have a heavily stacked line to prevent French advancement, but the drawback is that you won't really get anywhere against him, and your game will involve primarily holding him back until he gives up. Now, while I disagree with some of the other new profs that think taking Rumania would have been a good idea, there is some merit to it because there are quite a bit of centers between Boh and the AEG which are completely vacant and should a single unit get past your forward line, it would be hell in squeezing them back, let alone getting a unit back there to retake centers. For this reason, there should have been some movement for Gal instead of a useless support hold. If you could have talked Russia into giving you Rum in trade because he didn't really need the unit, then more power to you, but something had to be done, and this is a bit of an under-sighted problem that I suspect will cause you some issues in the years to come. Now, back to Munich. When I said I like the move, I like it that it isn't a French center anymore. What I don't like about it is that it's an Austrian center. In the spring, I mentioned some things, especially in my German commentary, about the possibility of him being a 5-center Janissary to another greater power. I was hinting heavily about you taking that role, or at least you were first in my mind. Other nations could have also benefitted in re-siding with the German as a means of strengthening their own position, but you stood to gain the most. I have a saying that I've passed out in the past and that's this: The guy with no friends is never my enemy and the guy with no enemies is never my friend. What I mean by this is that when someone does not have an enemy, and they target a player, dismantle him with the help of one or more other powers, and then turn on another player, all the while no one really targets him, this type of player stands to gain quite a bit because others aren't focusing on his growth until it's too late. Additionally, you'll be the target of this player whenever it suits him, and you can't afford to have an ally that doesn't have a project to keep him busy. Also, the guy with no friends is almost always the guy I want on my team. This underdog player, when put into a situation to where the rest of the map wants him dead (usually the brunt of a 3-on-1) will be so desperate to find an ally, that when you come along and work with him, he will side with you far longer than any other player would side you and will far more frequently offer you something ridiculous that is in no way "fair" (although fair in his eyes is simply him finding someone that will support him and give him a chance to get back into the game, often at some later date). Later in the game, these guys frequently become very useful Janissaries to the point that you can sometimes count their units among your total. For you, having a German ally and offering him Munich would have given you someone behind the French lines that would do as you asked him to, including muck around in ways that you'd find most beneficial. Not only this, but there are some other possibilities that would have opened up for you, although I won't go into those here. At any rate, I do suspect that you'll see some additional benefits coming out of the next season. Whether or not there is some measure of disaster depends on your play.
France--You've clearly dropped to third, and for several reasons. I should start with the positives, however. The best things you have going for you include the English ally, the fleet move to Tun, and above all of them, you have a build coming in that will really help you going into this next season for several reasons, the least among them being the German retreat. To the negatives, you did lose Munich, and that was a powerful blow. It was bound to happen since you had directed quite a bit of your forces south to take on Austria, which is no small undertaking, and neglected your northern ventures expecting Germany to remain on his side of the stalemate line while you did whatever you wanted. Second, I would have opted to move Pie to Tyr and support with Mun because it has a two-fold benefit. The first is that if he uses the unit to support a move to Mun from another location, you're cutting that support and forcing him to not support Russia into Berlin, or being supported there, either of which would have allowed you to maintain control of Berlin. The second is if he moved there (as he did), then you might have possibly been sitting in Tyr (as you would have been), and having an army behind his lines is a very powerful thing. After all, Tyr is one of those very powerful locations on the map that holds a lot of possibility, sometimes game-winning ones. In fact, I was soloed on somewhat recently when an enemy the board was trying to stop managed to get into Tyr. This opened a floodgate that set him up to win, without it, the game would have seen a draw. You've got to find a way to get the upper-hand on Austria if you're going to succeed. It's not impossible, but it won't be easy. Until then, you'll likely hang out in third place.
Russia--While you're in 4th, it's a not-too-distant fourth. It's great that you came away with an additional center, because this will keep you in the game, and among the 6 remaining, you're really close to the top of the ones that will most likely see it to the end game. That aside, I still have some issues with your previous play. I really wanted to see StP under your control. The fact that you're playing the north pretty neutrally says that you see this game definitely going to a draw instead of someone moving to solo, and you believe everyone else has the idea that Germany and Turkey will be wiped out and then the game will end. The reason I posted that outcome stems back to the idea that no one was really turning on anyone else and everyone was moving to simply execute Germany. After the A-F war started and the standings shifted this fall, some of that has changed. It doesn't mean there still won't be a draw, let alone a 4-way, it simply means that it won't come right after Germany is gone. Now, the reasons you're so secure right now is that you've got a pretty solid Austrian ally, and a solid hold on the stalemate line, and if anyone tries to cross through your territory, you'll have it locked down tigher than Fort Knox (and not the webdip player :), and this makes you a pretty integral key to this game. Also, I liked your fleet in Con much more than I did in Ank. In Ank, it's not going to do anything more than it was doing before Austria made a move, but in Con, it actually has potential, especially after Turkey managed to slip into Smy. As it is, this might be your last or second-to-last center. We'll see how the next few years go. For your build, I'm expecting F Bre
Germany--It sucks to go down two more units. I liked the move to Bur last season, but I really didn't like the support move into Mun with it this season. As others have said, you'd have to know that support would be cut, and if you're going to take a territory, you've always got to move one of the units that can't be used as a support. In this case, you'd have to have moved either Bur or Ruh. Now there's no way that France would have risked moving Bel to cut support in the off chance that you would dedicate two units to attacking it and this means Bur was the clear attacker with the others playing support roles. However, I still would not have done this much. I would have assumed that France would perform a self-standoff at Gas to prevent you from moving there, and I would have opted to use it to support one of the two units there leaving an open center. My second quibble is the F Kie move to Ber. I'd have had it move to BAL to put more of an ability to do things with your fleet, including convoying an army, harrass Den and Swe, and even keep the English out of there. For these reasons, going down to 3 units is a pretty natural outcome. For destructions, I anticipate Kie and Ber to hit the dust.
Turkey--Not a terrible year. You managed to hang on and will continue to do so for a while now. I still disagree with the hold this last season. I'd have ordered a move to Ank in case Russia used his fleet to return to Con and the army to backfill Ank, which would have given you two units and a real jump back into the game. Even a move to Con would have been better, especially if you knew Russia would hold in Ank because once you hit Con, it's open centers from there, and a chance to help out another country to stick it out for a whole lot longer and really wreck someone's game. Anyhow, I'm not sure how much diplomacy is going on behind the scenes, so there's possibly more to be said. - : Re: How does one provide PERFECT sea coverage in the north in 1901??
Sorta like a Field of Dreams thing...If you fill it, they will come. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I'd welcome additional commentary, especially from the likes of jmo and CS. I've also enjoyed the conversations I've had with uclabb on the side. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
SPRING 1907
With the movement of some players on the map, it does appear that there will be more years remaining in this game. I can certainly say that some players are certainly in a better position than others, and how the board reacts to the players on top will decide how the rest of this game is to play out. When I play, and I can probably speak for all veteran players, there are certain elements that I look for when deciding when and how to move forward, and several elements *have* to be in place. The key point here is what lies behind the movements themselves, namely the press that is involved between several key players. From here on out, I will deal with the map as a whole since there is no longer a clear dividing line between what is a western country and what is an eastern country as many of them have stakes in both spheres at this point.
France--I think that most can agree that you are the front-runner in this game. Although you lack a little in terms of center count, your position on the board is the most solid, and I don't mean that in terms of your defense. I like the locations of your units. Although you don't have the "solid" front line as Austria does, you stand to gain more in the long run with units in good zones. There are several zones that I love controlling in a game. The sea zones are MAO, NTH, ION and BAL. Although you really don't control any of these, one is yours by technicality even without the unit there, and someone else has to occupy it for them to stake ownership. The other three are ones of luxury because it indicates you've broken ground into some pretty powerful areas. The land zones are Tyr, Sil/Pru, Ukr, Gal and anything north of St Pete. These areas depend on where you're coming from, because once you've gotten a foothold into these areas, you're pretty much the guy controlling the flow of the map. Now, one might argue that Austria is controlling the land locations, but they're locations on the wrong side. Coming from the east, it's always imperative that a country controls key western zones and coming from the west, it's critical to control key eastern zones. Now, I intentionally left off the centers, because when you control the vital areas, the centers are much more easily occupied, and without them, a player won't make much progress, and you're closer to controlling several of these locations which is why I've placed you as my favorite country. Now, to your moves: the breach of Burgundy is going to be the most stinging. The fact that you regularly and predictably didn't support holds there for quite some time makes you predictable. When I play, I like to vary my moves so that opponents don't know what to expect. I try to attack when they assume I will defend because I spent 3 rounds defending. There are a select group of players that thrive on the predictability of their opponents and if they can predict how you will react based on how you have reacted in the past, then they will have the upper hand. Fortunately you have an English ally at this point that can lend support because without it, you will struggle a bit more. While the loss of Bur isn't a great one, it's not the end of the world because Gas and other areas are easily defended against a lone unit. Be careful of further advancement. I will wait to see how the fall plays out because at this stage, you never know if you'll hold a center or not and sometimes the late mid-game and end game are just as volatile as the early game.
Austria--The close runner up weighing in at number two. While your position is solid in terms of defensive capabilities, you really don't have as much as France in the way off a clear offense going on. The stalemate line is your biggest enemy right now. You have it heavily stacked along one front, but haven't really gotten anything through worthwhile. The biggest issue you'll face is the lack of fleets. Your armies can hold a great deal of locations, but not while they're pressed up against the line. In addition, you still have that nagging Turkish unit in the background. I'm not sure what's going on there, but it is going to continue to cause problems for you. That doesn't mean the move to the AEG was a bad one, but it was rather a good move by Turkey. The move of yours I liked the best was the one to Tyr. It gives you leverage. I wouldn't be surprised to see some diplomacy going on behind the scene that might stir up a bit of a hornet's nest. Again, this is something that will have to possibly wait until fall to determine more.
England--At third place on the map, you still have much to be desired. You're the only player on the map that has a guaranteed build coming into the fall and depending on how you view the board, it could be a really handy one at that. I'm sure the move to Cly was agreed upon, but I'd have done what I could to keep it in the NAO anyhow. Sure, France might be a bit annoyed, but there's not really much he could have done about it and it gives you a lot more power than simply docking it at home. In addition to this, there's certainly a bigger picture going on that I think you're missing. I'm interested to see developments this coming fall, so keep the press going.
Russia--Not a bad number 4. I still like your position more than Germany's, but again, there are elements in this game that I think you're not keying in on. I'm not sure if the move to Ank was talked about with Turkey, or if you simply got lucky. My guess is that there had to have been some sort of talk going on around the board, and that portion of the map has me just as interested as what's happening on the other side. I personally would have liked to have seen St Pete fall into your hands this spring season, and that didn't quite happen. I will wait to see what pans out this fall before discussing things a bit more. As it is, it seems you might be locking down a few more units instead of making some available for use.
Germany--You're almost pulling up the rear in this one. I like the move to Bur, and I hope your fall orders for that unit are a bit inventive because you have some options available for its use. I really hope you're talking to the other players because this could change things for you. There's certainly a dynamic going on and if you can really get a good discussion going, it could prove helpful to you in turning things around. A big part of it will be determining if you know where the other 4 major players on the map are really going with things. I still won't rule out a break-even season for you.
Turkey--Not bad. I like the move to Smy, although it looks like some things were discussed instead of mere luck of the draw. It's clear that you'll still occupy at least one territory, with the possibility of two... - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I see the season finished so I'll have commentary up tonight after work. - : Re: Full Disclosure IV - The Restart
If you recall our conversation in the game, I told you that I would draw if England went CD but if he returned, I would try for the solo. Your reply was "Agreed. If England returns and doesn't screw up, he can put a hurt on you with France's help". England did in fact return, and I moved for the solo. I would have drawn in the event of an English CD. I'm sorry you're angry that players in the game didn't move to respond to the Turkish CD, but I told you up front what I would do in either case, and you agreed to it.
I'm not sure why Turkey went CD, it was poor play by him, and anyone could have capitalized on it, however you and France weren't unified, England came and went and didn't talk to anyone, and I capitalized on those events which are in nearly every game of Diplomacy. The CD of Turkey was only a portion of the things that allowed me to solo. A board that wasn't cohesive was far more of the tipping point. I'm sure I still had the solo even with a live Turkey because France didn't have units anywhere around to support him and you were happy to see me stab him before he went CD. You didn't get mad at the CD until I had 15 units on the map.
If you choose not to submit press, then so be it. I'm not going to argue over it. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I will say this small tidbit about the builds: the most interesting build this season is the French one. - : Re: Full Disclosure IV - The Restart
Yes, thats it. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
FALL 1906
There was a pretty dramatic turn of events that I suspected might occur and that changed some of the outcome in the game. There were mostly good moves out of everyone and I will touch base on those below. This game has been highly unusual in that in the past, my commentary opens as it has by dividing the two spheres of influence and ranking the players in those spheres until one or two players are eliminated at which I deal with the board as a whole which typically signifies the midgame. However here, all 7 players are still on the map until after the Winter season and the game won't see its first elim until then. Normally, by 1907, there are about 5 countries left, and while with Turkey at a solid 1, you could say that there really are 5, it's never a sure thing until it happens. I will set my commentary up like KingRishards next season since the game is more "globally" based than regionally based.
The West
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France--Still on top and with a build given the botch (?) order at Rome. The English turn has also proved beneficial and it's obvious that a diplomatic agreement that started early last year has come to fruition. My guess is that this game has maybe two years left on its clock and anyone with at least 6 sc's will be in the draw with the exception of including Russia. In terms of your moves, they all made sense, but I would have forced myself into Ruh, even not knowing if I'd have had a build coming. The open gap at Bur is a minor consequence since you can protect everything with a single army but you're putting more force at the German throat and with the loss of a guaranteed center (turned out to be two) coupled with the fact that you did gain a build from Italy, you would have had a dynamite season. The "stalemate" line is no longer there and your moves have really been a bit of a waste. Oh well, there's always next year. As for builds, A Par makes the most sense to me based on what I'm seeing.
England--You had a really nice season this season. Your moves with your fleets were highly suspect and I thought there could have been an agreement reached between you and France because his moves showed more that he was backing off and you were moving defensively to test his actions. I'm a bit surprised Germany didn't pick up on that a bit, course, that's not to say that the idea didn't cross his mind, because there's no solid way to explain last season's moves except for the alliance shift. I love the move to Den because it adds another crippling blow to the near-defeated German facing 4 enemies at once. Some might have opted to move to Hel but it wouldn't have the same effect and it only allows Germany to put up more of a fight and defend Swe next year. As for your builds, I'm not entirely sure what you'll go with because I've called for an army for several years now and you've been stacking fleets on top of fleets. Ordinarily I'd call for an army, but ya never know.
Germany--I feel bad for you and your position about now. You were once the undisputed powerhouse of the game and in a few years you've fallen like a rock and now face elimination...well, really its an execution since everyone on the board at this point is moving in on you to oust you from what will be a probable 4-way draw. The difference between 4 and 5 players in the draw is pretty negligible and the points you antied in on the game aren't much of an incentive to cut a guy out, so I can understand where you might feel a bit gang-raped for little purpose. Anyhow, that's neither here nor there--to your moves. Unfortunately I have to give you two thumbs down this season. Here's why: in my spring commentary I predictef the loss of War, and rightly so since Russia had 3 units on the table and Austria had ample units to cut supports. Knowing that Russia would move on War, why try to use it to support a move to Gal from Sil? Even the best-case scenario has it that the attack on War would come from Gal and you'd lose War but sit in Gal..to do what? If Gal took War, that means Austria gets the build and R and A can keep you out of Bud and Rum until the cows come home. A better move would have been to use Sil to retake Mun with Ruh support. Next, I don't really understand the self-standoff in Ber. I'd have rather seen one of your units move there and possibly give War a spot to retreat to when it's forcibly kicked out. Finally, the holds along the French border still don't do anything to get you anywhere. If it were me, I would be trying to force a unit in there any way I can and muck around. If you got into Bur and on to Gas, you could give Austria a solo chance, and by doing that, you might have made yourself relevant to an attacker and also possibly force the west to keep you around as a stalemate piece. When I'm being eliminated, I feel the best way to go is to offer myself to each and every player. Sometimes all at once and sometimes in turn to see if anyone wants my units to give that one guy a major advantage. If you offer to help someone solo and they take you up on it, you don't have to keep your word all game long, only long enough to get the rest of the boarf to realize that you'll throw your game to help someone win and they need to offer you a slice of draw pie to turn and stop the solo. I won't criticize you for not seeing in advance the English turncoat possibility even if his moves were strange and I called a possible 4-way draw because in this game, sometimes you can have a gut feeling that someone is going to stab you in the back but you still have to expose that back to them and simply hope they dont get out their knife because it's hard enough to defend against 3 people and ya gotta just hope for that chance that there won't be a fourth.
The East
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Austria--You had yet another nice series of moves this season. It net you a stronger position against Germany and one of the two remaining Italian centers. With this game almost over, there really won't be much left to say. With A Vie coming in this Winter, you and your teammates should have the necessary force to reduce Germany to nothing in two years.
Russia--Your moves were pretty solid all around as well. I liked the move to Ank just in case Turkey moved out and I like the Lvn move to cut support instead of support a move especially here because if the move succeeded, then you would have followed Germany on to Ber, which is a plus. There are instances in this game where cut supports are superior to a support move or even a support hold and too many players simply don't recognize those opportunities. For you, I sense another army build in Sev.
Turkey--Meh, following the spring hold, this hold is all you can do. I doubt much will really change, and you'll be executed like Germany. On the flip side, if I'm going to be eliminated, I try to have the goal not to go first. It doesn't really matter since an elim is an elim, but it's a personal goal I have to not be eliminated first. Maybe you share that small victory as well.
Italy--One move was good, although belated, and the A Rom holds was silly. Dunno if it was an error or intentional, but you could have beem down to one had you moved it to Nap. Maybe to you it didn't matter and maybe you had a ln inside track on some diplomacy going on, or maybe you just have game fatigue. I can't say I balme you. Hopefully you're taking some time and developing an EoG. Good luck in future games and I hope this SoW gave you something to go off of. If you have any questions for myself or KingRishard, feel free to post them. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I will be on tonight to post commentary. - : Re: Diplomacy and Stabbing
@Bohonk and anyone that agrees with him:
The bottom line is that everyone is going to say what they can to get ahead in this game. Knowing who to trust and when to trust them is the highest element of this game--so much so that it comes as part of the game description on the game box itself. Each player has to enter the game believing that everyone else will lie to you given the right opportunity. Everyone will stab you in the back given the right opportunity. If you begin each game understanding this basic premise, then you get less angry and disappointed when it happens. If you try to play thos game playing for a draw because you don't want to lie and stab to win, then you're missing the goal of this game. I believe no honest wins exist. The only way a player can solo without lying is if several players CD around you which creates an "unfair" advantage, you only play with complete noobs, or you're playing a gunboat game. Take the stab as a learning experience about how this game is played, and move on. Some people have similar issues in other games. For example in Settlers of Catan, is it unethical to trade a player one resource for another only to play a monopoly for the resource(s) you gave away? It's not against the rules. In Monopoly, is it bad play to sit in jail intentionally to keep yourself from having to pay rent and watching the other players land on your spaces? What about not paying rent to a player who fails to notice you landed on his space? Each game has its own things which are permissible under the rules of the game and you have to expect that a player is going to take full advantage of anything available to them as long as the actions don't include any form of cheating.
In this game, lying and stabbing are sewn into its very roots. It's not only permissible, it is expected. Once you play with the understanding that the guy you're talking to might lie to you at any point, you will begin to pay closer attention to your own play and begin to safeguard yourself in case you might be lied to or set up for a stab. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
SPRING 1906
The power struggles as we draw nearer to what could be the end of the game. Normally, gakes are broken down into phases where alliances are formed that last into the start of the next phase, players are eliminated, and countries jockey for positions that will allow them to solo. Players should think one phase ahead to produce a skeleton of where they think they shouod be to produce positive results. This game is essentially entering the pate midgame with no eliminations and no one in a likely solo position. There are often a variety of warning signs that a solo might occur. Players crossing the stalemate line, players having a large gap in the number of centers they control vs the number of the closest player to them, and sometimes a position that hasn't produced anything tangible yet. This last one is often in the form of a potential lethal stab. I don't really see any of those here and the game will most probably end in a 3- or 4-way draw.
The West
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France--The top spot is a close call when based on solely center count but given position, I see France as the clear choice in the west. The spring moves produced a possible build for you and no one else in the west is really a contender for your spot. On the flip side, don't take things for granted. I myself tend to see things in this game under a slightly negative bent, which can be a big downfall, but also keeps me alert to possibilities that could occur as the game goes on. I say this because I see something that could change your game that could occur next year or after.
Germany--Unfortunately, a majority of what I have to say you probably won't like to read. In some respects, I like your position even less than I like England's which would put you last in my rankings. This is saying quite a bit because I'm almost picking a 5 center country over a 7 center one. Some might say that this is a natural thing because England's 5 are more secure than your 7, and while that's true, it's not the end of the story. I have seen you simply hold the last 3 or 4 seasons against the stalemate line while France started testing ways to get through and now he is moving his units freely without worry that you'll make any retaliatory moves, and to date, it has cost you not only Mun, but you could have been sitting in Bur this season threatening Mar, Par, or better yet--Gas--which borders 4 sc's. Now, whenever I mention things a player should have done or should be doing, it's often too late because everyone in the game has read this, and the window of opportunity has closed. Most SoW players tend to react to my press instead of think "I missed this opportunity, what can I do now that the board might not expect". This year, you're looking at the loss of another center and will likely drop you to the bottom in the west for the first time. You're great when you're on top but when you're falling, you begin to lose control. I still think you can pull things around for the better, so good luck.
England--Your moves this last season were alright but I would have liked to see an aggressive move to the ENG because the FAR is only going to ignore you for so long. While it's conceivable that the game could end in a 4-way, your needs include planning for a 3-way where your position isn't secure. A move to the ENG had one of a couple scenarios: either a bouncec from Bre or success. Had it succeeded, France would either have a fleet in MAO and Wal, which isn't terrible for you, or in MAO and Bre as he has now, which is better. This appears as France is trying to buy your neutrality by staying away, or he's moving to maintain key sea zones for himself and you're not playing aggressive. If you're going to solo in any game, one thing I've learned the hard way is that you have to play aggressively. This game doesn't wait for the passive player to solo. As I said, I don't think your moves were bad, just not aggressive in the way I feel you should have been moving all game long. After this season, I don't think we will see you in a solid bottom position, because as a careful player that you've shown yourself to be, caution does not typically lead to last-place play. However, having a slow-moving, careful nature does not lead to top positions either. I say this as a player that also gets caught playing cautiously from time to time and see myself in draws where I have 15+ centers where I should have soloed.
The East
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Austria--You appear to have spent this season setting yourself up for a possible gain. The moves were much what I expected, but I really don't see how locking down both your fleets is conducive to a solo. If anyone on the board has solo potential, it's you, but the play I see is as someone playing for the draw. You've got one fleet guarding one center far from the action and not poised to stab, and you've got another locked in Tri. If I were Italy in this one, I'd be keeping my fleet where it's at in the ADR (although the ADR was my declared disband--more on that later) and make sure you don't get anywhere or produce another one. I think you've lost eyes for the solo. I do believe this game will turn out to be a draw, so the supports you're giving to your neighbors are as good a move as any. I anticipate that the three of you will finish Germany off within 4 years unless something else shouod interrupt the progress you've been making.
Russia--I like most of what I saw this last season. My guess is that you will reclaim War this year and StP to follow. I like the move to Lvn. I believe very strongly that every player should learn to cross the 17-17 line given the opportunity because it's next to impossible to do it later. Plus, even if you're not going to solo, having breached that line will often solve a lot of headaches down the road. My beef with your moves comes in the hold of the southern fleet. I understand that yours and Austria's fleet can't do much, but that's the problem--they aren't doing anything. By now you could have sailed the fleet out into open waters, popped it for an army build or used it to give an army or another unit support into the last Turkish center. Having two units tied down to do nothing is less than worthless...it's counter-productive. Taking care of this small issue wouod have you in pristine condition.
Italy--It looks like you have about one year left. The army unit movements were alright, but the fleet I have an issue with. At this point, Austria and France can manhandle you to death and locking up your units won't produce anything. Your best bet would have been to send that fleet into open waters. If it could threaten Gre or even better, help England into the MAO, he might have been willing to support you into a center in exchange for the extra unit. You could easily defend against the lone French fleet with one of your armies. surely Germany or England would put up a price for your available unit. My suggestion for you is to try to think beyond your immediate circumstances and see where you can be best put to use. Most of the time, someone is willing to buy your unit.
Turkey--Ooh, I gotta disagree with the order this season. While on a grand scale, it probably doesn't matter, seeing the Russian army build, I would have ordered my unit to Arm to bounce him out. If the move was successful, then it probably means he vacated Sev and you now border two centers. I find that when I'm reduced to one unit, I make myself available to anyone that can use it. By moving to Arm, Russia would have to issue an order to protect Sev which means he doesn't get a German build, which means Germany keeps 7 units on the map to get himsepf into a better position. Having a unit threaten another center doesn't mean you have to move against that center, but merely make your opponent believe there's a good possibility you might. These kind of orders alter the way a player moves and reacts to situations around the board. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I will post commentary hopefully later tonight. - : Re: Dictionary for newcomers
DMZ is a DeMilitarized Zone (an agreed upon zone where one or more players agree to leave devoid of units)
D is diplomacy points (the official point ranking system of the site)
GR is Ghost Rating (the more accurate unofficial ranking system found at phpdiplomacy.tournaments.googlepages.com or sites.google.com/site/phpdiplomacy)
There are other abbreviations like abbreviating country names or player names like TN for Tru Ninja, etc. - : Re: press Rady for fuck's sake
Plus, in a live game you can count that I will never ready moves because talk time is heavily limited and I can use the time to discuss the next season. - : Re: press Rady for fuck's sake
The only time I ready is when my actions are clear and no amount of diplomacy can change it. This occurs less than once per game on average. FYI. - : Re: Diplo-Kings Macho Match-Up!
I like the way achillies put "nigee and the like 0 scs" where he called nigee out and left the others anonymous, lol. Sounds like he has something against someone :) - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I'll say that while I didn't expect to see the AF jump on Mun, I did see it as a possibility for the simple reason that the pairing of A and F seemed logical and if they were going to work together, attacking Mun seemed like a way to solidify a relationship. Austria already showed he had anti-German intentions by making moves at the line and helping Russia into Mos.
That said, I didn't expect the move because I figured Austria was going to be more selfish with the Tyr army by squeezing it into Italian territory with double support.
I also agree with KingRishard's assessment about the Russian army. - : Re: Non sequitur showdown
I'm in a better position to reach the community at large because I get on the world wide web. Most other people are just on the internet. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Bump - : Re: I'm building a website, come join it.
I couodnt open your site on my android. What kind of site is it? I thought it would be Diolomacy-related. - : Re: Hey everyone! My wife is on Webdip!!
Yeah you are... - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
As promised, here is my commentary on the east. It's a bit delayed but chock full of goodies. Also, it has been brought to my attention that there is a typo in my German commentary on the destruction prediction. This should read Fin and not Swe. Thanks to the individual who brought that to my attention.
The East
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Austria--Clearly, you're the undisputed top dog of this sphere, and topping the board, according to KingRishard, and there were several things you did really well and one predicament yoh find yourself in that I will talk at length in the commentary of another country. As I said in the French commentary above, I loved the support into Mun. I didn't expect the move but saw it as a possible action. This was a more superior move to simply forcing your way into Italy a bit more. You have bought a French ally in one move by giving him a center over his opponent instead of jockeying for a more advantageous position that wouldn't net you anything tangible. You also coupled this move with a second move on the eastern front to be the key player in a German downfall by delivering two centers to two allies. This caused Germany to finally have to face a true two-front war. If there wad a move you made that I really felt should have been different, its A Gre -> Alb because the army isn't going to do a lot there. It is better served in Bul because you have a situation with a Turkish thorn. At any rate, no builds this season, but in a stronger position nonetheless.
Russia--You're the clear number two and gaining a build will help hold the line or apply pressure to the eastern front of Germany. You didn't have a whole lot of options to decide from on your short to-do list and support holds were the obvious choice. Not a bad season overall, but don't get comfortable because there's more game to play. The build choice will be A Sev. If it's a fleet, I'll have some things to say.
Italy--Marginally higher than the last place, I still like your position over Turkey because you get to do something. Not much more, but it's something. The fleet move toward home is a bit late and it cost you a center but the game's not over. This year's destruction is a bit tricky but I'll predict F ADR will go.
Turkey--I really love your position. Why? Because it's really like watching an episode of Laurel and Hardy or Laverne and Shirley or some other comedic group that finds themselves in a hilarious situation. Not you, mind you, but your army is making an entire fool of two fleets. It did so for an entire year and could go on for another year. Let's take a closer look. The basis is that you have two fleets trying to take your last center but because of your position, either fleet is entirely incapable of supporting the other fleet into Ank to eliminate you from the game. As long as you log on and click 'Ready', for a hold or move action (you could make the result entirely random) action, one unit has successfully locked down two fleets. Now, the buck doesn't stop there. In order to oust you, a third unit has to be dispatched to your location to lend support because if one of the fleets moves, you can retreat into the vacant center. Also, the third unit dispatched is at least a year out and has to move in the opposite direction of effective combat just to eliminate one lone army, and then spend another year or longer getting back to where it was. Essentially it means that one lone obnoxious army is going to tie uo two fleets for over two years between moving into position, forcing you out, and moving away to return to the useful fight, or tie up 3 units for a slightly shorter time. I would really have to nominate you 'hemorrhoid of the game' and the next time I'm facing elimination, I want to go out like THIS. Very very nice. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
FALL 1905
Ooh hoo HOO what a season! Some very "surprise" twists this season made it my favorite scene to this point. There will be a bit to say after this one.
The West
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France--Back in the top spot among western countries, I have more to say for you than many others this season. I sort of like the move to the ENG this season. Clearly you knew England would have to cover Lvp with one fleet and try for the ENG with the other. I think you would have been a bit worse for wear had you moved instead to the NAO because the ENG is pretty critial zone. The support hold at Bel makes sense as does taking Tun, so both of those were sound choices, although one didn't pan out. The one I like the best was the cooperative move on Mun between you and Austria. I'm not sure whose idea it was, but when I said Germany probably wouldn't lose another center, this was the exception I had in mind. I didn't want to mention the possible AF move on Mun to break the line because it would have had some serious reprocussions in telling the two of you the best way to advance, but I also didn't mention it because I didn't know if the two of you would have done it. It was very nicely played and by far the best move I have seen you make in this game. This, coupled with the fact that Germany has a very sensitive destruction choice to make will really make life miserable for him, and for that, you deserve the prime position in the west. I really feel that this season has placed you in a really great spot for a number of reasons. Now, you do have your positional downsides. Your nation is currently like a bucket that has a hole in the bottom but is also sitting under a running faucet. The hole isn't a big one and so the water from the faucet is filling your bucket faster than it can drain out the bottom, but the downside is that if the faucet is shut off, you're gonna leak. What I mean by that colorful analogy is that in the north, you've got some holes that are difficult to fill. You have two too fleets manning the waters and a host of English ones where England happened to over produce that will soon pose a problem. Your moves this season made some great ground, bit it's these holes that could cause you to falter if your intake ever slows down. The south still might generate some growth, but it also might not. For your build this year, I'm predicting F Bre.
Germany--You've dropped to a tense second. Part of that is due to your loss and France's gain, but had France only taken Tun, maintained Bel and not pushed into Mun, I'd be more willing to possibly consider you in first. However, the loss of Mun is not equally mitigated by the gain of Bel because Mun is not only a home center but it's also a point in holding the line. One of the things that can make Germany a great country to play lies in its ability to defend against France, and for that reason, the two make a great pair, however, it suffers heavioy once a unit makes it into a home center, moreso than most nations (barring Austria, maybe). To illustrate, let's look at the layout: By S02, Germany typically controls Den, Hol, Mun, Ber and Kie. Later, if he is doing well, he may also control Swe. Now, let's assume an enemy breaks through your line and lands in a home center. There are 5 possible outcomes and I'll touch on these briefly: (a) a fleet hits Kie: if that occurs, you have to force it out. When it is dislodged,especially in the spring, it can retreat to Ber, Hol or Den, all of which are centers or it can retreat to HEL or BAL which each border 3 centers. This can make dislodging the fleet almost as bad as it hanging in Kie. (b) an army hits Kie: equally as devastating as a fleet, it still has a crap ton of retreat options including 4 centers, Ruh which borders 3, Sil which borders 2 and Pru which borders 1. (c) a fleet hits Ber: not as bad as Kie, Berlin allows the fewest useful retreat options for a fleet, namely BAL and Kie. (d) an army hits Ber: the army can retreat to only a few useful locations, but is better than the fleet. The army can get into Kie or Mun or retreat to Sil to border 2 centers, although one would have been occupied and only Mun needs to be considered as long as youre not moving out of Ber. (e) an army hits Mun. This is worse than Ber and in some ways worse than Kie, especially in your situation. A retreat from Mun can go to either Ber or Kie which are both home centers, and if it retreats to Kie in the spring, it other options in its retreat from there at Den, Ber or Hol, or it can retreat to Ruh if forced out in the spring and still threaten 3 more centers. Now, this is a generalization because Germany will have other units nearby that can cover some of those better retreat options, but it illustrates some of the issues Germany faces when an enemy unit lands home. Other nations simply don't have that headache to that degree because German gains are so close to one another with so few natural barriers. I believe your destruction will come from Swe.
England--Simply, I like the moves you made this season. By moving the army to StP, you can return a fleet home to fight the clearly inferior French navy without having to risk a center to an eastern power. moving in on your goods. I also like the support of Germany into Bel, although if it was you, then you'd be sitting in one delicious spot right now. I will reserve additional commentary for you in future seasons because I don't want my thoughts to give anything away, but suffice it to say, your third place spot isn't at all bad.
I apologize for cutting this short but I will get to the east early tomorrow. Its late, I'm tired and my cell battery is dying. - : Re: Hey everyone! My wife is on Webdip!!
@Manas now you got me interested in your plot as well. I'm curious which country you're playing.
My wife plays other games but this is the only game deemed a "war game" that she has tried. Never played Settlers and Zombies, she thought Carcassonne was boring. She does like Checkers, Rail Baron, Iron Dragon and most family/party games. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
SPRING 1905
There were some really great moves this season by some players and in addition to this it's pretty noteworthy that no player has been eliminated and it doesn't look like someone will be eliminated this year either.
The West
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Germany--You're still on top in the west but this might change soon. You will clearly lose one center, barring an unforseen NMR, and could potentially lose more, but it's not expected. To your moves, I don't have a huge issue with them, but you're at a point where I really don't see a place for expansion. France isn't going to lose anything this season, especially not to you, and your expanded navy isn't going to get you anywhere either. Where once you were in the driver's seat, you have since moved to the back seat. I do believe you'll eventually lose War, the number of units you have bordering the stapemate line will likely mean that your position is secure if the board dynamics continue as they are.
France--At this point, you could be in a borderline second place and might replace Germany next year. Your best move was the southern fleet since it has tangible results but your northern front looks shaky at best and you've got several empty sea zones. The biggest benefit, outside of the stalemate line, is that your IRI fleet will force England to have to cover home centers instead of marching down your spine. This next year will probably be the biggest determinant of your future success.
England--While I have you at third place in the west, your position is far from poor. In fact, some could argue that out of all three western powers, you're the only one that has a stable position. To some degree, I like the army move, although I suspect that it's both late in coming and more reactionary to the commentary instead of well-timed. The remainder of your moves seem pretty reasonable. There are other advantages of your position and the best one is flexibility. While I don't anticipate a build (but also don't rule one out), you do have a wide variety of ways you can move that allow you to make the most out of positioning on the board, both with countries in the east and west. A part of me can speculate the press that very well might be going on between you and the other powers and this could give you options. Maybe the fall will be an uplifting season, but don't rush into any decision. Careful advanced planning should be going on right now to ensure a positive future. I believe this game is closer to completion than what it appears at face value.
The East
Austria--While you won't be gaining a build this season, necessarily, you are making progress. I sense that your press boxes are more active than the other players in this game. If not, something is amiss. I like the Russian support to Mos since any alliance will want to see growth out of both players to help it maintain some degree of equilibrium. I have said before and I will say it here, one thing that is vitally importantis that your ally always has a project and sees some measure of growth to dissuade a stab. Returning Mos to Russia was that sort of play. I expect next year to be a bit more lucrative.
Russia--This seems to be panning out to be a great year for you. An opponent going down at least one and you going up at least one, and more importantly, seeing the return of a home center, is a critical point for a comeback. I don't have any real quibbles about your orders this season.
Italy--Hmm. I really disagree with the support move for the Turkish unit. It might look good on paper but it really does nothing for you except allow Austria to dismantle you bit by bit. Your fleet shouod have been in the ION helping out against the Austrian threat and attaching yourself to anyone that can do something. However, there's not much your lone fleet can accomplish that far out except tie up two units controlled by two different countries. In addition, the fact that France had a fleet in Spa sc should have alerted you to the idea he was looking for a free center, and now he has found it in Tunis meaning you will have to ditch that fleet this year. Had it protected Tun, you might have been able to persuade France to return home. As for your other moves, they seem fine.
Turkey--still hangin in there, it's nice to see you still have someone that cares to help you out. I believe that this luck will run out next year with the Italian disband. Oh well, you had a rough run and a glimmer of hope. I still wish you well and applaud you for not giving in. The fact that you've had some help up until now really speaks volumes about the fact that you chose to pursue avenues diplomatically instead of wither and die. I believe that this game might possibly have helped you more than most even though it left you in a sour spot. I wish you well next year. - : Re: Hey everyone! My wife is on Webdip!!
@Putin: surely you have to agree that when one spouse has a hobby they are dedicated to, especially hobby gaming, which has a very small following compared to other things, it's pretty significant when someone can share that joy with their spouse, especially when this type of game tends to be male-heavy.
I'm excited for everyone that can have this same joy. Maybe one day you can have a similar experience. - : Re: Hey everyone! My wife is on Webdip!!
Ah the break up...the stab of stabs. - : Re: i got attacking...
Losing the hair is a big change when its really long. I had mine cut years ago and the one thing I remembered about the event is that I remember my head being colder than normal. - : Re: Hey everyone! My wife is on Webdip!!
Lol thats funny FK. - : Re: Hey everyone! My wife is on Webdip!!
@iMurk-- lol, shes a great woman, but when it comes to games, we dont get along. We arent allowed to play Monopoly together.
@CelticFox--very true. If we got divorced, I know she would make life rough for me :)
@gopdfinger--maybe later, then. My wife hated this game, too, until she tried it. She also tells me that she will watch football with me this season as well, although she wont root for my Broncos. If shes like my wife, you can hook her on the idea that its high drama and you get to lie to people. Ive seen the press in her games, and Im helping her with it. Her first season in her second game, she sent a lie to everyone, lol. I told her "Love, ya can't do that. If you lie to everyone immediately, no one will believe you later. Let's try telling the truth first, and then lie to someone." - : Re: Hey everyone! My wife is on Webdip!!
Precisely why I wont play games with my wife. Me, my wife, Jacob and his wife used to play Settlers of Catan together all the time and my wife always played solely against me. She wouldnt trade resources, shed only rob me and convince others not to trade me. On this game, Im sure she would ally against me just for the sake of doing it. - : Re: Hey everyone! My wife is on Webdip!!
Hmm...offense taken :) jk - : Re: Hey everyone! My wife is on Webdip!!
ROFL yb. Nope. - : Re: Hey everyone! My wife is on Webdip!!
My wofe hates games in general, too, especially war games but she was thrilled with the idea that you could talk in this one and she loves drama. - : Re: Hey everyone! My wife is on Webdip!!
I feel like we're a rare breed. I hope she sticks with it enough that if I organize a FtF game that she'll play. Good to know there are others out there. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Geez. I go on break at work to look at the spring moves and think about the commentary, and there's still 45 minutes left of the season. Get with it guys :) - : Re: Full Disclosure Games Players
The purpose of asking for press to be sent upon elimination is to reduce a player not submitting. I would still appreciate the messages when a player is out and everyone has my word that I won't look at any press until either I'm eliminated or the game ends.
Now, about the CD, I really only need 6 of the 7 players to send press because I can reasonably piece the 7th players press together from the messages of the other 6 players. - : Re: Question about retreat - Mods?
Clearly a fluke. Hence the reason I don't play variants. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Winter 04 There's only one build I feel is questionable, so I'll comment on that and it's England. The presence of yet another fleet means that German gains will reach a point that will far exceed your own. You have way too many fleets that will simply spend time holding and supporting holds instead of making progress and you're generating more to replace the ones that will be busy doing absolutely nothing. The fleet, to me, shows lack of ambition in this game. Sorry if this offends you, but it does. The other builds and destructions seem fine. - : Re: What would you do?
I've been in situations in the past where players will state honestly that they won't back down, even when there's a reasonable offer. It's not the norm by far but they are out there. One scenario I had Italy, Turkey and Russia coming down on me and I heard nothing from Turkey, a statement from Italy only saying that we can't currently work things out and Russia saying basically the same thing. In these situations, where your press isn't immediately effective, you have to pick a target, work to stalemate that one guy, and hope he breaks and you have to use assumptions and common sense to predict his builds to counter and move based on where you think that one guy will go.
In the germany situation, some people might feel stalemating France is easier, others try for England. You can only use press when the other guy will be receptive. It doesn't mean you stop talking, but it does mean that you'll get nowhere for a while. Hence my theoretical question. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I'm interested to see what he has to say as well.
As a side note, I didn't list my thoughts on the Italian destruction. I believe it will be his Turkish army. - : Re: What would you do?
But in the meantime you still move your pieces and base those moves on what you see is on the board currently. The point of this "exercise" is based on the notion that different people would handle a situation differently. Bo_sox has one fleet build while goldfinger has two. This could very well be a real scenario and sometimes you don't have a lot in the way of press other than the knowledge that if you defend yourself long enough, someone will back down. I've had past successes as Russia and France, so I'm posing the question to the community.
I would build fleet Berlin and two armies in order to try to secure Sweden for myself without risking Denmark. Bel is expendable but 3 armies are needed to lock down the French border. - : Re: What would you do?
I meant the fleet moves to Por, for starters, and the conversation is about how you would move and build and whatyou assume your opponents would do. - : Re: What would you do?
Sorry, F Por, yes. Also this is a purely hypothetical question amd not tied to any game. Just trying to pose some unique thread to the forum for anyone to post to.
I have the tendency to build like SD since armies definitely blockade France but fleets don't necessarily do that. how do you all anticipate England and France would move in S02?
Also, @ Achillies-there's no rhyme or reason other than it means Germany has more of a chance with 3 builds but sets up more of a tense situation. A Bur isn't as threatening.
What builds do you expect out of E and F? What spring moves would you expect from them to make you move the way you posted? - : Re: What would you do?
Let's say you're Germany and it's Winter 01 and you've got a Russian fleet in GoB, England has F NTH, F NRG, A Nwy and a build coming, while France has A Ruh, A Spa, F MAO and two builds. You got 3 builds with F Den, and armies in Hol and Bel. You already know that all 3 are coming for you but if you can hold off for a year against Russia, he will back down from pressure in the south and after 2 years (s04) you can get either France or England to switch sides if you can keep at least 5 of your centers until then. What would you build, what do you think France and England will build (Russia will build south from the pressure there) and how would you move next year to keep the 3 of them out? - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I'll take some time to tackle uclabbs question/comment and later today come back to MajorMitchell.
I'm going to have to disagree with your assessment. The worst move this season was the French move to Spa sc from the MAO because it accomplished less than nothing. The Austrian move accomplished quite a bit more. First, it showed Italy that Austria is working with both Turkey and Russia and not against them and while that is going on, he has less to worry about in one of them switching sides and working with the Italian. Next, Italy has to disband and still recall his fleet which means he doesn't have to keep as much on his east to keep Italy from pestering him on two sides. Third, he will have a fleet coming in which gives him equal naval power and a greater army presence. He still has plenty of options available. Would it be nice to be in the ION? Sure. It's the best southern sea zone. However, forcing an Italian disband this year instead of next year isn't bad either so I ddon't disagree with the move. I would have been in the ION and given the center to Russia which accomplishes both, but it's a far cry from the single worst move of the season. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Fall 1904
I apologize for missing a season. I typed a spring message three times and lost my first message, uad my computer freeze up on the second and got interrupted on the third. I will spend a great deal of time elaborating on fall moves but will include thoughts on my original ideas from the spring. Each player should have a very sizeable piece of commentary for this season. To begin with, for the Spring, I really felt that this was the forst SoW game I have seen that really felt like 7 veteran players making moves on a map. I liked most of the things I saw from all players, even if it didn't turn out like they wanted. The fall season was the same way. Several players really performed well. Each of you should take those words as a compliment regardless of your situation.
The West
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Germany--You had a really stellar season. For the Spring, I commented that the best move you made was supporting England into StP. This helped buy you an ally, and to be honest, some of the best things in this game are intangible. Sure, a build is great, but it can be far greater to win an enemy over as an ally after years of bitter fighting, move the right way and foil a stab, prevent a player from soloing, or survive as a 1 sc country for 4 years to become a pivotal unit and end up with part of a draw. These sorts of things are far and away better than gaining one center because these things have lasting effects that can be game-changing. I also like the move to take Moscow and the build will pay out well, although what to build at this point, and what to do with it is another marltter entirely. Now, to your west, I said in the spring and it still holds true for the fall that the stalemate line is bitter-sweet. You and France have both locked down the line and can keep each other out indefinitely and both of you will require something of England to break beyond it. So far, it seems that you have the upper hand in the matter. In the mean time, you'll have to decide where to go next. I had thoughts in the spring that you might possibly stab England at StP, take the build for yourself and have a fleet and army duo coming into play to rule the west. However, while it was a possibility I had thought could happen, I didn't expect it. As it is, you will have to decide where to go in the meantime. For builds, I believe an army in Berlin will take place.
England--This season also really rocked for you. I had congratulated you on getting into StP, finding a player to work with and doing all of this in the wake of a really rough first couple of years when it looked like you would be the first guy out in the west. Unlike KingRishard, I had placed you in the second spot over France in the spring and you kept that through the fall. Your cooperative with Germany turned out positive and you still probably have the pick of who to work with in the next year. Having said that, I have to talk about the fleet move to StP instead of convoying an army over. I know an army on the Island is protective, but it's really limiting. England is one of two countries far removed from the stalemate line and this is the biggest opponent in to an English solo that turns it into a draw. One thing that any new player should learn quickly and any experienced player should already know is that if someone wants to solo, they HAVE to cross the 17-17 stalemate line, and they have to do it before players on the other side can mobilize to stop it from happening. For England, this occurs in primarily one of two spots: the Mediterranean in taking Tun, and Russia in taking War or Mos. There are other less common places such as Rome, Naples and Vienna, but as a general rule, England takes these locations with armies or with the help of armies and fleets either cannot do it or have difficulty doing it alone. At this stage in the game, your easiest crossing point was definitely at War or Mos but the fleet in StP means you have given up on this. Other locations are still a possibility but it means that you have to eliminate Germany or France entirely to do so before you have the opportunity to do so. This isn't likely to happen and you're not pumping out armies fast enough to capitalize on this. Now Tunis is a possibility and requires fleets and can be done with only fleets, but the fact that the east is going to reduce its first player pretty soon and possibly a second before the west can ice their first player means that you probably won't have that opportunity. To me, the fleet in StP was essentially you saying "I'm not interested in going for the solo". Maybe you're not and maybe a draw, given your rough first few years is a blessing and you'll take what you can get, but each player should always have solo eyes on at all times. But, this is a game where anything can happen. For builds, I see an army in Lvp.
France--Not the year you were probably expecting, which is unfortunate given the things you sacrificed in order to get where you are. I do agree with some of the moves you made as you tried to probe the stalemate line looking for weak points, I do disagree a bit with the fall move to Spa sc. This move made absolutely no sense. It gives me the impression that you're attacking Italy but could have been defensive in nature to protect Mar from an Italian retreat. If it was indeed an attack on Italy, it's the most ineffective move I have seen. It pressures nothing, can't convoy an army, and will end up being recalled to the MAO before it can be useful. If it was defensive, then moving Par to Gas does the same thing because without English help, you're not getting across that line without a German screw up. If you had spent your year convoying an army to North Africa or even using the fleet to move to WES, I'd have given you some props. However, this was a year of pretty much nothing and will cost you a bit more than you wanted, especially with England and Germany both gaining a build.
The East
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Austria--You're way out on top and in style. In the spring I anticipated gaining one build and a possible IT and a Russian build, but instead we see two Austrian builds which took some clear diplomacy and I would have you in first place for the map if I was ranking this on that level. You took advantage of the out-of-place Italian, which in my opinion was a bit of a no-brainer, but a good stab for you to make and I know that good things aren't done coming to your door. There will definitely be a fleet build in Tri and probably an army in Bud this winter.
Russia--In the spring, I really applauded your moves because you were going to have a build in the last Turkish center to offset losses this year. Instead, you give your build to Austria, flee from a center to retreat home where a German army was not predictably going to move, and essentially doom yourself pretty quickly. All game, it has been apparent that you have been on edge and I don't know if it's your personality to always assume the worst in this game, or if this is just not your best game but you have to be self-minded. By giving Austria a second center instead of you getting it, you're destroying your chances in making any future progress. I had suspected that you migh be in a position to stalemate western countries out of the east, but at this point, I suspect that you'll be a road bump. Your disband will be probably the Con fleet.
Italy--Ouch. In the spring, I anticipated a build to offset your loss and I also thought you might have been talking to Turkey to work out some sort of deal to support him into Con. However, the fall proved to be different. Now, you've got Austria in a very dominant position over you and you're powerless to stop it. In my mind, the stab was pretty clear but might not have been avoidable even if you kept one more unit closer to home. You had a really tough break this year with everyone supporting Austria and not the underdog, even if it didn't benefit them to do so. I hope this next year generates you something.
Turkey--In the spring I had written you off as DOA going into the fall. My prediction was that Italy would get a build and Russia would take the other unless you had worked out a deal with Italy so the both of you might have a chance. Instead, you displayed a shocker with support for Austria into Smy indicating that Italy wasn't up for negotiation but Austria was. It means that someone in that group is successfully reachimg out and you still may have a comeback up your sleeve. That means that I owe you a hearty congrats and hope that next year will prove just as good for you. It goes to show that when someone doesn't clamp up and continues to play their hand, the game might sometimes play in your favor. Now, you're definitely not out of the woods yet, so keep the press rolling. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Ill have my commentary up late tonight. I have it typed up on my home computer in a .txt file except for one country. Ill copy-paste it tonight when I get home. - : Re: ban away
Awww poor guy...never even had a chance. - : Re: Which subjects are sacred?
I dont mind talking politics or poking fun at it, but religion is something I don't joke about. The fact that so many americans can call themselves religious (especially Christian) and then make blasphemous jokes or watch blasphemous TV is really sad. Nothing is sacred anymore... - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I totally agree with KingRishard, the army Paris build is a botch. When I initially called for a possible build postpone it was under some pretty specific understandings. I essentially went through the following thoughts : If the French build a fleet, it could go on either coast. Bre would indicate an English attack, but given that he already made peace with E and took a German center, I don't see the point in returning to an attack on England because that would only create a EG, so F Bre is out. A Par and A Bre is also out because the army build could only be convoyed since the German retreat stalemates French advances. That means that an army in the two northern centers is useless for at least another year, probably longer. This leaves Marseilles. If a build took place, it would have to be Mar. With an army build there, he could get Italian permission to circumvent Switzerland and tap Mun to help him get through next year, which isn't a bad idea, or he could build a fleet and move on italy. Given that Italy has two units really far from home, there's a possibility that he could take Rome or use the army build in Mar to pressure either Rom or Ven, but if Italy gets a build this year then he will invite a second war, so he would have to make sure Italy gained nothing this year. That's why I called for a build postpone with the exception on something specific and I was alluding to a Mar build. I think your build, along with the moves you've been prone to making that you're having a hard time thinking beyond one season.
This isn't to say that you can't use the army somehow, I simply think that it would require English assistance to get anywhere useful with it, and I don't think that will happen because England will be looking for a build for himself. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I apologize for the misspelling. KingRishard it is. My spelling is really good but I have the habit of missing the obvious. My apologies.
Also, I'm not bashing you either. It's been really great having a second prof. I love the commentary because it's something I can look forward to.
I'd like to start by posting a general comment: I hope that the players are paying close attention to the thread, especially the areas where KingRishard and I are in agreement. The key points, to me, are that builds are among the most important focal points to a game and what the builds say about you is as important as the purpose behinfld them. I make a point to not finalize orders and I don't often submit orders within the first 24-hours of a 2-day phase game because there are a good many people that see this as having an open-mind. Early finalizing and submission of orders, while it may have a practical application, can sometimes send the wrong message, especially in 1901. The same goes for builds. Building one unit can send a different message than building another and it can send two different messages to two different people. One example is when I was playing Russia and I built in Moscow instead of StP because I wanted to send a message to the west that I was not going to be aggressive. Instead, it was received as a sign of weakness of sorts and there was an opportunity to move in on me from the north. Think about the message you're trying to send along with where you are headed with your units.
The next area we clagree on is that England has to regularly convoy armies when in attack-mode. If he's not pumping armies onto the mainland, he will find that he won't make much progress.
One final point is to have a clear goal and stick to it if at all possible. Bouncing back and forth can lead to lack of progress. I should also point out that while he and I disagree about the effectiveness of the Lepanto, we both agree that it has been rather ineffective.
Now on to Uclabb's questions:
Italy: I whole-heartedly agree with the King on this one. Italy needs the builds, and badly. To me, when the Lepanto is most effective is when Italy can talk Austria into giving up Gre. Also, in most 3-on-1 situations, Italy frequently gets the shaft in builds (only 1 instead of 2 like his allies) which is why I frequently favor Italy finding a way to slow the west and form a 2 on 2 and move quickly (start it right out of the gate and possibly forego Tun as a build in lieu of something more beneficial). Here, it's been too long and Italy hasn't had builds. While he might get one next year, I also wouldn't put money on that. His success hinges on an extended eastern war where his participation plays either an integral part or allows him to focus on other things.
Austria needs direction. In the past, his units have been in areas that were totally useless doing things that didn't need to be done, The first is having units stationed in Tri doing nothing--theres been an army stationed there doing nothing since 1901 except to prevent Italy from stabbing him for one center. If I'm Italy and in F02 he doesn't have more than a lone army in Ven and I keep seeing a build in Nap, he's not coming for me and I can put that army to use. Then there's the bounces in Gal and Rum (which I still think could have been security bounces) and last, the army in Alb. All these point to a lack of direction. Find a target, at this point it doesn't matter who because you're not beautifully set up to move on anyone, and list goals.
Russia needs to simply pick a front. I think he's focusing on maintaining StP way too much. He has several units in the north meant to keep one center--and its one that has no guarantee that he will continue to control it. Of he has control of StP two years from now, I'll be shocked. I agree that he needs War. I know where I'd love to see him and he has two possible allies to pick from--if he picks one, he needs to go one way and if he picks the otjer, he should go a different way, but there are a few people he shouldn't spend a lot of time working directly worth at this stage. I will wait until the next year is well under way amd use my commentary to fill this in more because more detail here would be too telling. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
No KingRashard again, eh? - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Back to the front - : Re: Another Diplomacy Site
The only Diplomacy, in my opinion, is the classic map with full press. Outside that, the variants dont have a good zone setup and most or all zones border like ten million other zones and dont have areas that you can really protect yourself from, it seems very little thought went into its creation, zone sizes, center locations, and the like, has a lack of adequate testing before its release and has a general "cheap" feel. Its more of a raw free-for-all. Variants suck, plain and simple. - : Re: Help - Dipn' Dots
Sure does...give it a lick. - : Re: Chatting during a pause.
I talk intermittemtly. If the pause is long enough, I'll lose momentum and forget ideas I had concerning the game. I have no problem in sending press during a pause. It doesn't change who I'm working with, but it keeps me fresh in a game. Sorta like jogging and getting to a red light. Ya gotta jog in place and camt let your body cool down. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
You're right. i was probably a little harsh. He did also support a hold on a unit not his own as well showing that he was trying to get something going. For that, I apologize. I do think the AEG move was hiz best option and it does appear Russia screwed him which shows more of the flip-flopping on his part. I think he could have back-filled Con, though, because that's a stalemate point for armies. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
FALL 1903
There wese some pretty big changes this year which alter the placing pretty significantly. Players that saw regular progress will see a decline, many who saw nothing fo a long time will finally see some gains and players that had been holding on will finally be headed out the door.
The West
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France--The biggest change was Germany dropping to second in the west with France in the driving position. I'll expound on that more in Germany's commentary. I liked the short convoy, kinda funny. It dodn't matter how you took Bel as long as you had double support. You also have the upper hand on Germany since the line requires 3 armies to hold it on either side and he simply doesn't have it. My guess is that Germany will see additional losses divided among England and France. For builds, I could honestly see a deferrment. There's only one build I could see as useful if there is one coming. If a build pops into play, I'll comment on this more.
Germany--You took a big fall to the number 2 spot. Even though you have more centers, I pick placing based on the idea that if everyone quit and 7 new players took over, first place goes to the country I would want to get. The biggest reasons for the fall were that your western front was abandoned while you strengtherend a front on a war that won't much help you. It might slow your decline but won't allow you to fight the EF. I would have preferred for two units to try to take StP, War stay put and Lvn slide back to Ber since you needed 3 units to prevent France from advancing. Now you're a year out of position and it's going to be a huge guessing game to keep France out. I expect to see more losses soon. In order to prevent the EF from forming, I would have offered to support England into StP. The build would have likely placated him and if he climbed to 5 this year and you dipped to 7 with a defensible position against France, I'm sure you could have kept England as an ally. For your destruction, I believe we'll see the GoB fleet picked off the board.
England--A much better position. From here, I expect that you should see a build next year. You've reclaimed the NTH and have a fleet in the NRG which can advance as needed. The support hold on StP is what I love the most. It prevented Germany from maintaining 8 units. The move to Wal is what I don't like. Not sure if this was a third misorder or just a bad call. The army should have been in Yor to convoy. Wal does nothing for you, I'm not sure what you were planning to do with it. You already had a French ally established. Other than that, it was a decent season for you.
The East
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Austria--Still out front, you finally broke the dead lock. I am interested in seeing where you go from here since the positioning doesn't allow for you to take more Turkish soil. I won't comment too much on my thoughts as they allude to where I think you'll go and that would step into the TA's shoes. I will say that it seems you've still got this feeling like everyone is going to attack you at every moment and you need to loosen up a bit and trust someone a bit. It's ok to give someone a little leeway to possibly stab you but so much that the stab won't gain much of anything. You've had a unit in Tri all game doing nothing and if Italy stabbed you for one center, you having units in Alb, Bud and Vie could easily force him out. If you don't trust someone, advancing will be slow at best. Talk to your TA on this more and he can help you learn to take some calculated risks. Obviously an army in Vie is going to be your build.
Russia--Back up and into the second place spot, and not only did you not lose anything, youre even gaining a build as well! The English support was great but your single greatest move was working with Austria to take a Turkish center. I don't know why it took as long as it did, but kudos for it. I believe next season will see even better things and for builds, I'm predicting an army.
Italy--Not sure why you moved the fleet on land. I don't think it will gain you much that your army couldn't already do except put all your units in Turkish soil. I think you'll see some common ground with Germany but on a smaller scale. No builds for the second straight year will cause you to be the possible second person out the door. I would be surprised if someone gave you a build, but then again, I don't know about the alliance structure going on within the press being sent. As I said earlier, a good goal for Italy to have is to double his units by 1904, 1905 if he has to. Other countries see that type of growth and you need to stay on pace.
Turkey--Really, I'm done commenting. The third straight set of all holds tells me you gave up on this game and if you don't have someone feeding you centers, then you won't try. Sure it's frustrating to be in the position you're in, but part of the challenge is getting out of your mess. If you only try when you're winning, then you won't get far in this game. You got 1 unit to destroy after retreats and I already know it will be the fleet. I will stop posting you in my commentary. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I'm not sure KingRashard is going to post. I'd welcome Uclabb to take over if he's not going to prof... - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Spring 1903
This season saw a great deal more good moves than in the years past. There were still a few blunders and poor judgements, but over all, I was pretty impressed. There will be a lot for me to say about each country. Some of you who were on my "bad commentary" list have moved off but there are others who will continue to be there.
The West
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Germany--Ah, the shifting of alliances has come. This is generally why I avoid moving on a country in the opposite sphere early on--it simply leaves unfinished business at home. I have the general feeling that the commentary had some influence on the shift, but in a veteran game, I believe you would have seen it anyhow. Part of it, I believe, was the fleet build. A bigger part of it was simply necessity. When you have a nation as large as yours go unchallenged, you can often expect a solo because the other powers are so small that alone they can't stop the beast, and because there are also often so many that they either have difficulty coordinating with one another or that there are too many possibel bridges that one of them had to have been burned. When 5 or 6 smaller nations move to stop the one large one, it's usually a mess and the best solos come about not when there are only 3 people on the board but rather 5 or 6. With England and France at war, neither could have expected to go anywhere against the other, but with the shift, someone is bound to get a build. Now, at this point, you'll be able to offset that with a Russian center, but you'll have to begin to really plan your next moves carefully because every unit on the east is one less in the west and every one in the wast is one less in the east. One positive thing you have going for you is that there is still old tension between E and F and sometimes tension can play on a mind if someone has the ability to play it correct. Very very few players can set up and play on a tense situation to their advantage because it's a subtle art--much like sculpting nearing the finish when fine blades are used to chisel out minute detail. Each subtle mark and cut, alone has little effect, but after a while, fine details give way to a true piece of art. Anyhow, I'm sure you'll have StP and lose Bel, but if you move your pieces right, fighting a two front war shouldn't be impossible.
France--I really applaud you on this spring's moves. You've turned a rocky start into something positive. I had been alluding to working with England instead of against him and wasn't sure if it could be done or not. Your efforts this season will be rewarded with a build, but after that, I'm sure you'll be locked out and it will be up to your partner to come through. The east is still a mess and usually someone is out the door or really close by now. At this point there's no real way to predict what will happen in the west but at least you've established yourself as a clear power. I like the support to Bur instead of simply a move there but with England not in the NTH, your group lost out on some ways of moving forward and so the moves this season will be rather limited. Let's see what the next few seasons yield because this shift can either be beautiful or an ugly mess.
England--Ehh, while not a terrible season, I wouldn't characterize it as a great one. You will begin to find the downfall of the fleet build as your units pile up in sea zones with no where to go for a while. As a general rule (and I can't think of an exception right off the top of my head) England's fourth unit should be an army. As England, one of the first things you should do is convoy the army. Then, you need to figure out where you want to make inland gains. Without progress being made deeper onto the mainland, you'll inevitably suffer from a reduced ability to get anywhere. I like that you and France have decided to call a peace treaty but it was slowed by your order botch. This is the second one this game and you're really going to have to spend more time going througj your orders more closely. If you have to, after putting in your orders here, put them into some adjudicator like RealPolitik. I'm certain that you originally called for Lvp to move to Wal and then, after talking with France, changed the Lvp unit to move toward the NRG (and picked the slow way to do it) but forgot to adjust your other units to allow you to get into the NTH. That's another thing going to slow you down by a season.
Now, I don't want to only focus on the negative. The pinnacle of this season for you weren't your mistakes, but rather the fact that You and France worked out your differences--no matter how temporary--and that you moved in such a way as to believe him. After all, he could have stabbed you for Lvp and it would have been brutL, so congrats on reading him correctly and not doing as some are prone to do and distrust someone and move to attack them instead. I don't forsee a build this year but it's very possible you'll see them next year.
The East
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Austria--really I have a hard time picking a first place out of this conglomeration going on in the east. What started off really well has delved into nothing more than a 2v2 slog. I have seen nastier things and President Eden has posted some of them to the forum, but not much. I don't know where the 3-on-1 broke down but it has. Now I stipl believe you have the upper hand and might get a build this season. The turn of events in the west bought you all more time but depending on how those events shape next season or two, it might burn more time than it brings. Hopefully progress will begin to start soon for someone.
Italy--While not a close second, it's not a distant one either. The alliance shifting in the east means you're not getting a build this year but you do have options outside the vanilla ones that are probably on the forefront of minds right now. I'm glad you got into Syr, although ot was by Turkish poor play. I've found that most people think very similarly and will try one avenue and if stopped at that route, they'll move to the next instead of trying the same play again and so against younger (game experience, not age) if I bounce them once, I can usually bounce them all day. Now that you have landed Syr, you should begin to see some progress and will maintain the second spot instead of losing it.
Russia--Hmm. Not sure what's going on here. Once again, you're allied with one country and unable to make progress against another. I don't know what you expect to gain by pulling the stunt with the Turkish hold, but it's likely going to be your end of the road. You had to have really distrusted Austria to move as you did. I think it wasn't your best choice. I would have rather seen a move to Arm and you supporting yourself into Ank whild Austria cuts support at Bul and Italy invades Smy. Instead you're trapped in a slow battle that can't end well for you.I will say, though, that had Austria's TA been playing this game instead, I can understand the Turkish support because I know Lando and his play style enough to be able to predict what would have liekly happened (love the play style Lando :). I should also say that you may not necessarily lose anything this year if the events of the board play out in your favor, but you could very well lose ground in preparation for a very ugly 1904. On the flip side, I do like what you did in the north. Your correct read on Germany combined with the fortuitous alliance shift in the west have given you your biggest glimmer of hope. At this stage, I would be pressing a lot of people really heavily to try and see some positive change. This could be your ticket out of the woods.
Turkey--I like what you did the least this season out of all the players this spring. The second set of all holds lends me to believe you have thrown in the towel which is not the mark of the best players on the site. Even a little hypothesizing on your part could have been done and come up with the idea to use A Ank-Smy to bounce an incoming Italian. The support holds are only going to support you to the grave. When anyone faces a guy that only holds and supports, it gives them a morale boost because they have an opponent reduced to nothing. If you're holding, then you're not doing anything and if you're not doing anything, then you're not doing anything to get yourself out of the rut you're in. I picture it like some of these guys in Kentucky that take thier trucks out into the mud to play. If a truck isn't well suited for a large enough mud puddle, the vehicle begins to spin tires and not go anywhere. The only way to get out of the mud isn't to cut off the engine and wait for the mud to dry. Ya gotta put something behind the tires to give it traction. The analogy goes back to being active in your desire to get out of your mess. You joined the SoW to learn something. This is rule #1--when you find yourself losing, don't stop talking and don't stop fighting. If you're gonna go down, do something that will hurt one of them in the long run. Hopefully next season will be a bit different. - : Re: Anyone Know?
Thats up to jmo but Ill add myself to the list to get it rolling. - : Re: Anyone Know?
Ill TA to complete it so that the students can play - : Re: Anyone Know?
Thats a shame. It looked like it had a full roster. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I think that the best way to proceed in any situation is first to find a way to get your opponent to reduce his centers by any amount. If Italy's guess was correct and Turkey goes down one and locks Italy out, that doesn't matter because he got the build. Losing a center is a very demoralizing thing and the sharks feed on blood. Now if you're not pretty sure that the center will be open, then you go where you'll be more sure--which in this case is Syr.
Now, the fact that Turkey pulled a "all -holds" season either means he guessed Italy would try for the center (which means he thought through his situation and had some idea about how his opponent moves) or it means he simply reacted to the situation and pulled all holds to simply defend, which is almost never the best option. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
WINTER ADJUSTMENTS 1902
There are only 3 powers that had any adjusting to do and I will only touch on the two that I didn't call accurately. I'll start with England since it's shorter and then touch on the German builds. I whole-heartedly agree with the Russian destruction and hope his reasoning for it is the same as mine.
England--I called an army and KingRashad called a fleet. You went with a fleet. I will take the time to highlight why I would have chosen the army. Liverpool was the correct choice for the build but let's begin with what we know (or rather what I'm deducing we know). First, you've got a French enemy that has a fleet in the ENG ad IRI. He can't convoy 2 units at the same time so his options are limited to a convoy and a support, a convoy and a move, or two moves, ultimately, for the spring. Second, we know that we have a very large German power. They might be our ally, maybe not going into this next season. Third, we have a Russian destruction in tje face of a German assault. Each of these has a bearing on what I'm going to build. The least important is the Russian. The destruction is going to be at the most useless unit (not to imply that any are useless, but given the present situation, some are more necessary than others. It's likely going to be a northern unit because he can't afford to cut losses in the south where he will expect to make the most gains. If I'm going to get a build, it's probably Swe or StP. This means that I need another unit over there to take it because it would be foolish to think I can hold 2 centers with 1 unit for long. The fleet in Lvp isn't going to do that and I need an army on the Island. This means a fleet has to take it but I need to cover Lon and F Lvp can't do that. Now it might be that I won't get a build and if not, then the Russian situation doesn't matter to me.
The large German might come my way. If he does, then I have to think about how to cover 3 centers and the NTH with 4 units. Two fleets need to be used to cover the NTH in case there is a move + support or a move and I need to either move and support or self-standoff or something else like that. Now Germany might not be my enemy, but combat with him is possibly more likely than me getting a build in 03.
The French is what I have to focus on. If France convoys and supports, then F Lvp can handle that. If F IRI moves to Cly, F Lvp can cover that. If F IRI moves NAO, F Lvp can cover that. The problem comes if I guess wrong and now have to cover Edi. A Lvp can cover that, F Lvp cannot. Now, I should also say that the fleet build isn't the straw that broke the camel's back, because it's not. It's just not as maneuverable and can't support hold places on the other side of the Island.
Germany--Ouch, F Kie...I really disagree with that. To start, builds are one of the most telling pieces of information I have about a player and I pay *very* close attention to them. Players build based on need and direction. If a player needs more defense from a certain player, a build would likely occur closer to that player. If someone is going to be a target, builds might be closer or further away, but not too far. If Turkey builds in Ank, and I'm Italy, I can be sure I'm not his target regardless of what unit it is.second, builds indicate direction. Players always build based on where they believe their next centers will come from (if they're gaining) and where they need to defend from. I called 2 armies because I want to secure my position across that stalemate line early, and in such a way that I can't lose that footing, and one center isn't enough. Sure, if I take all 17 on the west plus War, I win, but if I take War in 1904 and the game goes to 1912, my odds of keeping just War for the next 8 years while I take the rest of the wast is close to zero because the remaining eastern powers are going to form an alliance to try to stop my solo once I hit 10-12 centers, give or take, and it's much easier for them to take one center from me and stalemate me out of that solo than it is for them to take four before I can seal the west, or at least reach 18. By crossing that stalemate line earlier, nad grabbing all I can, if no one cares at the time I do it other than the guy I'm taking them from, then I'm in really great shape going into the next stage of the game. The second army could have been deployed into Russia with the blessing of Turkey, into Italy, possibly woth the blessing of Austria, or even around Switzerland to move on the empty back side of France whivh allows me to move on Italy quicker and with less advanced warning, possibly at a time when he is a threat to another country that would like my help.
While armies are a little telling as to their destination, the fleet is more so. It cannot be brought to bear on any of the previous areas I mentioned. Instead, it can go to StP, Nor or the NTH. Each of these locations are areas that England has interest, and England alone, and that's the message I'm sending to the board whether I want to or not. I might have the best intentions for England and really value his alliance, but as soon as that extra fleet hits the board, it gives English players a pause, and possibly second thoughts. After all, there's no WAY it's going to France...at least not anytime soon. If it did, it would have to move to Hol, then to Bel and then on to Pic or the ENG currently under French control, and A Mun simply does it quicker.
Now, you may be planning on attacking the English. I don't know. In that case, the fleet is obviously the better build. I wouldn't go that route because you're allying with a 5-center power over a 4-center power and generally if that gap exists, I want it to be as large as possible so that England eventually becomes my jannissary, not my enemy. A 4-center power will have less to say about my eventual solo than a 5-center power. You've already got France and England duking it out and don't care what you're doing, so why interfere? If you can spend the next 3 years getting bigger while neither of them gets anywhere, then do it, but it means more armies and less fleets. Plus, the east is a mess right now. You should have taken advantage of that--with an army. If you later come back and play mop-up with the west, then do it. If you make large gains and the game looks like it will be a draw, more armies mean that you haven't pissed off whoever wins in the E-F war. That's the long and the short of why I would have picked 2 armies--it makes the right people less-worried and gets you what you should be after. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
1) I agree that its not 50/50 since choices depend on how you typically believe a player reacts to a situation, intel you've received, or things you've set up ahead of time. If I talked to Russia and hes moving to Arm, Im moving to Syr to force one to happen. Its a 50/50 choice if you have no idea on things and you gotta go with yiur gut and nothing else.
Deuce armies was called by me because if I was in his situation I would make greatest use of my English alliance I can and I would have pressed those armies into taking Mos or pressing mysepf into sla situation for the highest chance for a solo which could also be getting armies into Bur to ensure an English ally or Tyr to swing around Switzerland. The fleet build is simply sending the wrong message. Ill get to more in my Winter Adjustments commentary that will follow shortly. - : Re: Trieste-Venice
While I don't see it as an italian attack unless Italy agreed to move out of Ven, I think its a silly opening because I want Gre and dont want Turkey to take it. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Any questions from the audience? Anyone not playing the game following the threads? - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I noticed in your rankings that you had Russia above Turkey prior to this season and it was evident that Russia would lose Warsaw. After the fall moves went through, nothing really changed that wasn't expected but Russia dropped below Turkey. Why the change?
I have Turkey below Russia because it's obvious that Italy is coming after him and to me, the Rum bounce was agreed upon and if I'm Russia, I can defend against one opponent, get a build next year (or at least a center to even out my loss) and can possibly negotiate with several individuals to help change my sotuation. If I'm Turkey, on the other hand, I have to hope that the bounce wasn't mutual, try to continue to out-guess Italy (which he didn't do this season because all he did was a series of all holds and supports), may face a continued 3-on-1, and have to try to negotiate with at least 2 people to get off my back before I can hope to get anywhere. In my mind, Turkey got lucky he didn't lose anything and no one invaded his soil. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I apologize for the lateness of this post for the players, but here is my commentary on F02:
FALL 1902
While some players came out better than when they started, this was a year of disappointments for a great number of players this season. To a large degree, I'm still a bit disappointed that some players are not seeing a bigger picture to things and looking to the future. Some players are proactive--having the ability to see events to come and make changes before disaster strikes to ensure their part in the endgame--while others are reactive, waiting until a situation occurs before taking action. If any of the players feel they need to develop this ability more, be sure to talk to your TA as they are highly skilled players that can help in these areas.
The West
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Germany--This was an excellent season! For a nation to have 8 centers by the end of 1902 going into 1903 is a rare situation that is the envy of all players, and is a testament to diplomatic skill as well as tactical skill, either by the player, the TA or both. Your position will afford you regular gains, although I don't think that next year will result in the 2 and 3 builds that you've come accustomed to of late. You're on your way to securing yourself in the endgame, but don't get too comfortable because this is a game where events can shift on a dime for the unwary. The EG is ever more apparent by the moves you played this season and it's playing well for you. For your builds, I'm predicting a pair of armies in Ber and Mun.
France--I gotta say, I don't necessarily disagree with your moves (except for the move to Bre), but instead, I disagree with the path you're on. If you look closely at your present situation, the fact that you didn't really get anywhere, but instead England gained a build this season only solidified the notion that you're probably not going to get a build for a really long time. An obvious build in Lvp will prevent you from moving there, Wal is locked down as is London and the NTH can be easily defended. In addition to this (and the reason I disagree with the Bre move) is that you already have an army in convoy position and you can't convoy two armies at once. If you had a third fleet or England had not gained a build, or even if you had made it to Wal, then you could see some progress. As it is, all of your units are crammed along the west coast as if a plague has hit Marseilles and Paris. One thing you have to keep in mind is that time is a highly prized thing in Diplomacy and every year is purchased with hard-fought Diplomacy and strategic movements of one's units on the map, and not something that is infinite. Eventually a power will move your direction, and likely one that is larger than the 4 center England that you now face, and possibly could work in conjunction with England to compound your problems further. If things do not change for you very soon, the odds that you'll participate in any sort of end game is pretty slim. I don't mean to be bitter or cynical, but I hope that you take something positive from this. France is my favorite country and has a lot going for it, and I believe that if you play things well, you can change things around.
England--The new build you're getting this season will pay dividends in keeping you around. However, I'm not entirely sure where your next build will come from. Getting to number 5 is certainly going to have to be your key and quickly. At 4 units and facing a 5-center power, you aren't going to gain a build by military might, but only in your ability to persuade someone to find a build for you and be gracious enough to see you in your cause. I like the move to Wales,as you out-guessed your opponent twice in a row, and the move to London was a bit disappointing, but ultimately it was safe. The new unit, as well as the position of your other units will make life very difficult on your adversary. I expect to see an army build in Lvp this Winter Phase.
The East
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Austria--This season was a bit of a disappointment and I fully expected to see you with a build coming out of F02. I'm not sure I'm following where you're going with things and it's a bit unclear who you're targeting. From the surface, one might believe there was a shallow attempt at a Russian stab, but there's no unit in Gal or Vie, and Russia spent his season bouncing your units there, which might lead me to believe that it was agreed upon to allow Russia to safely move to Ukr. The problem is that doesn't make sense either. If you're working with Russia, why have the pretense bounce there to begin with? Someone could have easily taken Bulgaria this season--either you or Russia--but instead Turkey remains in control of the center and slows down eastern progress another year. The fleet move to the AEG seems to indicate that you're still interested in attacking the Turk, but again, nothing was done about Bul, and if Russia is indeed your target, then the AEG fleet move makes no sense, coupled with no units in position to attack Russia. Something simply isn't adding up for me this season. If Russia and you are agreeing to bounce for safety's sake, this is becoming a crutch that neither of you can afford to hang on to. At some point, players have to simply trust that their ally will not stab them for a shallow gain. I hope to see some concrete progress this coming year, because Germany is making a lot of progress in the east due to the inability of the east to consolidate, and at some point, a western power is going to come your direction, be it Germany, France or even possibly Italy.
Italy--Tough break this season. It can sometimes come down to a gamble in trying to take a center or convoy an army, or even move from one location to another and someone is trying to stop you, and this one came down to a 50-50 chance. You had to guess which spot would have been open, either Smy or Syr. I expect that eventually you'll get what you want, but make sure that time doesn't become an issue. Italy usually suffers from lack of time to get going, but in this game, you're in the most secure spot among 6 of the 7 nations. France is in no position to move south, the west is not fighting a typical war where three countries consolidate into two and you have to worry about how quickly a country will sail across the med, and the jumble in the east is preventing Austria Russia and Turkey from really getting things going for any two of them. However, it does mean that the longer the east takes to get moving, the worse off you'll be as well. My advice for you is the same as it is for most of the map--if something isn't working, change it. I'm not necessarily advocating changing sides or tactics or anything in particular, simply be ready to switch up if you feel that the gains are no longer worth the time. Think of this as a new store owner taking out a $200k loan for a new business. They have to begin making payments on the building loan, purchase materials and equipment for the store, and begin paying employee salaries. Eventually, the owner has to begin to make a profit enough to make all of the necessary payments without having to rely on that original loan money or else he will go under. As I said, I expect that you'll do fair for a while, though, and time is more on your side than for others.
Russia--This year, although disappointing, wasn't a complete disaster, but it also wasn't quite what I was expecting to see. I'm not sure what to feel about the move to StP. If England and Germany work together, you're bound to lose it, and in some respects, it's better to cut your losses to wherever you think you can take a stand. Unfortunately for the country of Russia, when it starts to crumble, it often goes down in flames, even though it has some natural stalemates because the countries that attack do so from both sides of the line and holding itself up is really difficult. When you first get attacked, you have several smaller stalemate areas to pick from to defend yourself from a singluar attack, but having to cover two fronts is a bit more tricky, especially when half or more of your units are fleets. My recommendation is to think about where you can cut losses, ensure you have an ally somewhere and go from there. If you can do that, then I think you'll be fine. The key in any game is to make sure that your enemies are always busy with someone else. If you are their only project, then your survival is slim. Now, on to your moves in the south. I like the move to Ukr, but like Austria, I don't know what is going on with Rumania. As I stated in his commentary, if you're working with him, then don't waste time bouncing in areas that you don't need to bounce in, especially to take half of your units and dedicate them to a bounce that simply doesn't need to happen. At some point, you have to trust that an ally isn't going to stab you, or else all you will do is defend and get nowhere. If you're working with Austria, you would have been better to put a unit in Arm, get someone in Bul (I would have recommended you since you're losing War which would have kept you even) and begin making progress on Turkey to allow the east to begin to do something. If you're working with Turkey, then the move to Ukr would have been less advisable and I would have recommended getting Italy on board, moving to Gal, and begin supporting the Turk into a location, or better yet, having the Turk support your Rum army someplace. As it is, no one in the east is making any progress, and you're the one paying the price. Hopefully next year will have things a bit better for you. In terms of your destruction, I anticipate the fleet in the BAL to be ditched.
Turkey--Not an excellent season for you, but much better than what I expected to see. The fact that you opted to hold and support hold this season is something that usually doesn't pay off because one just waits around to get picked apart, but this season it paid off. I don't know whether you made agreements with any of your neighbors or if you simply got lucky, but the fact that Italy misguessed at the location of the convoy was a pretty fortunate event as was the fact that no one took Bulgaria by force or moved into Armenia. I wouldn't count on this type of luck to last long because players test boundaries, they try new things and will persist until they're either successful or they select a new target. However, a player will not select a new target until you begin to wear them down both diplomatically (by offering them a new path forward) and tactically by out-maneuvering them. Frequently, you have to select one, maybe two opponents to focus on to ensure that THAT player won't make any progress on you while the other person makes all the gains. If you do this and show someone that they will end up with nothing and someone else with everything, they will frequently cast their lot with yours, back off, and sometimes even work with you against the new, more clear threat. I don't know what's going on diplomatically, but you should definitely be talking to just about everyone. Your TA should be able to lend some advice in this matter on who to talk to and what to be talking about if you come to a dead end. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Sorry about not having my post up yet. I have tried twice already today via my phone and the second tome I got all the way to the commentary on the last player and my wife called my phone and it erased the whole thing. It usually takes me an hour to an hour and a half to look at the map, check the move orders, compare the countries and write an in-depth analysis for everyone. I'll have one up tonight. At work right now... - : Re: Big Congratulations to Draugnar
I know it makes you mad, but I'm glad to see they're back. You know I'm being genuine and not picking on you. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I have a question for ya KingRashard: you placed Russia lower than England in your rankings. If I had done thwm the way you had, I would have the same order but with Russia over England. Why, in your opinion, is England in a better position than Russia? If you were Russia in Spring of this last season, what would you have issued as orders for the S02 moves? - : Re: Ethical Question
For the record, I'd take advantage of it as well. Most of the players know about the bug (which shoul have been fixed looooong ago) and if they lose as a result, then so be it.
In FtF games, players have the option to concede to an "inevitable"win (hence Edi Birsan's belief that if you have to get to 18 centers, your diplomacy has failed), so exploit away. After all, is it unethical to take a win when someone CDs? - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
SPRING 1902
There were a lot of solid moves this season and a few that need addressing. The biggest thing coming from this season should be some self-assessing by several players and answering the question "What will I gain on the road I'm currently on and how long will it take to reach my goal? The answers, while they share some common elements, can have very different answers. Some players have a beneficial route with quick results, some have a beneficial route with slow results, others have hazardous routes with slow results and of course othersare on a bad path all round.
The West
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Usually, if I'm on a board where a country squares off against a country in the other sphere, I usually think that it's going to be a disaster because he is turning his back on the real threats he is facing. That's not the case here. In fact, I think it was the most opportunistic set of moves given the present situation. Your moves coupled with those of Russia will likely result in 2 builds this year which will put you in the front of the west with no competition. Usually, players are not as opportunistic as they should be and often miss out on a game-changing set of moves. Had France gotten back into the action and England not missed S01, then I probably would disagree with those sets of moves, but the two builds will allow you to replenish units at home. I firmly believe the single largest deterrent of the stab is a build. When a country gains a build, it secures a position of temporary defense that has to be overcome and the most brutal stabs occur when the stabbed goes down units. The new units will afford you a lot of opportunity and you'll be deciding where to go next pretty soon.
France-at a distant second, your position is suffering from regular "less-than-stellar" decisions. While they have not crippled you, they have slowed progress down to a halt. You'll clearly have no builds this year and probably won't have one next year either, barring some amazing or lucky turns for your benefit. You've got two armies still playing catch up and it will still be another season before you have the possibility of striking the home center of another player. Now, to your benefit, you don't have an Italian or German shoving units down your throat, although that can't last too much longer, and you are showinv signs of an attempt to out-think your opponent which many players cannot do and the best tacticians excel at. Last, the border between you and Germany isn't stacked with units which gives you more room to breathe. My worry is when and where your next build comes from. If it takes too long, you'll have bigger issues to deal with because as talent increases on the map, the shifting comes earlier and at the pro level, a player will take on a new opponent before the old one has been eliminated and getting the jump on a player is a very important element of the game. I think your best future will come at the diplomatic table instead of the battlefield.
England-this season really put some life into you in a very tangible way. You'll have a build coming to you and it will help you get back into this thing. The real question is where you expect to get your next build from because hanging on to 4 centers won't afford you much of anything. The big thing I liked was that you took Norway with the fleet and not the army. I also like the self-standoff at London instead of covering it with the army alone. I believe that your best future is not with the path you're on and I do believe that some things will change.
The East
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Austria-Your spot in the east is to be envied. You've got a lot of security and the potential for the most growth. Clearly you'll be negotiating Bul with the Russian and each of you has reason enough to have it. Your moves were about as useless as you could get, however. The move to Gre while your Gretican fleet was ordered to hold was clearly a misorder and my guess is the you wanted F Gre-AEG. This one mix up caused nearly all of your other units to traffic jam. I also don't really get the Albania move. You've crammed all of your units in locations that still tell me you're moving out of paranoia which is locking down too many of your units. I could be wrong and maybe Alb has a convoy in mind, but I don't see it. To change the subject, I do predict that Bul will go to you.
Italy-Your position isn't amazing, but it's steady. It will still be a year before you'll see your next build. I try to have the goal with Italy that I should have at least 6 units by 1904 which is one unit per year with a buffer year for possible lag time. Usually by 1904 (sometimes 03) things will condense and Italy will face a new target and needs to have the military might needed to face it. This map is a bit different in that you have no French worry and Germany won't be in your territory which gives you the time you need to get some traction.
Russia-Ouch. The change in German facing will mean disaster for you, especially in the middle of a campaign that might not yield anything. The worst part was the loss of Warsaw. If it had been StP, that can be sacrificed. War and Mos can be acceptable losses if they occur later in the game and you can hold a stalemate line from the other side. Not all is lost, however, and depending on your skills of negotiation and events of the board in the fall and next year, you may be in decent shape.
Turkey-Although your position is still really ugly, the German assault helped you more than anyone as it gives you a lot more to bring to the negotiating table depending on the way you play it. I like the unit shuffle amd I think it was your best option. I'm a bit surprised you didn't lose Bul this spring and there's a possibility of more behind the scenes than meets the eye. This year will call for a few good guesses, a bit of luck and gobs of press. Anytime you're in the frying pan, take Paula Dean's example and throw in a crap-ton of diplomatic butteryness and you'll be swimming in type II diabetes...er...whatever. Lost where I was going with that. Just don't give in. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I will get to commentary later today, but suffice it to say, there are a lot of things I really liked.... - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Wow, I just realized I need to proof-read my text... - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Winter Adjustments 1901
I will briefly touch on builds this year, although I like all of them except Turkey's build. I will go in alphabetic order below for those that I will comment on.
France-I'm glad you went with the standard. I think it will afford you the best mid-term benefit. Two armies would have limited space to put them.
Germany-I agree with KingRashard completely about not deferring a build and that was your best bet.
Italy-Fleet was the clear follow-through for the Lepanto opening.
Russia-I agree with the build, but it's clear you'll have to likely give up on a northern campaign for now.
Turkey-In vacuum, the fleet build is a good call. If you're going to make progress, it's gotta be a fleet. However, the Russian fleet build on Sev means that he's moving on you, the Lepanto is destined for you, and if there's I highly doubt there will be a two-on-two and that means Austria will likely come your way. That means you habe to dig in your heels and defend. The fleet will only be able to defend the BLA but you've got more going on than that. I'm sure at some point, you'll wish you could use it to defend or retreat to Smy or Syr but can't. Maybe I'm reading things wrong and you have a pocket ally or Italy is doing something different. I do have the tendency to suck at Turkey. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Sorry for the double post. Fingers clicked post reply instead of a space bar. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I wouldn't have moved it there, personally. If you move to the WES, you're telling Italy that you want a fight. So you have to commit to building F Mar, right? Couple that with A Par and you've got the makings of a war that is more favorable toward you. However, you've still got that army in Por, which means you've got 3 armies trying to squeeze through a one-army space at Pie. One you can convoy to NAf but the other two must wait for fleet assistance. Now, the move is sure to beging to possibly net you a build or so, but not immediately, and if I'm Germany and France pulls south quickly, I'm shoving armies into Pic, Bel and any other place they can go because I've got an easy target. If you've got an incapacitated player in your sphere, generally you need to quickly give him the axe and consolidate to two countries because it puts you ahead of the east. You probably shouldn't be letting a player back into the game. Here, it's a bit different because England will be back into the game thanks to the bounce at Swe. The question then becomes, how do you deal with that? This is the key piece of information I'm looking for out of the west.
The assault on Italy is fine if you have help from Austria and something at home in case of a stab, but without Austria on board, it's really difficult to out-muscle Italy in an area that he can easily slow you or stalemate you..
That said, if I picked up a game where some French player moved A Par to Gas, F Bre to MAO, and A MarSpa, I have a few choices. If Germany is gung-ho about storming England, who is easy pickings, I convince Germany to bounce England at the NTH and I move to the IRI. If I feel a soft spot for England, I take Por with the fleet and return Gas to Par because I want units stacking that line and make the move to help England into Bel (via fleet, not convoyed army).
I try not to move on Italy early on or cross into the Med because, to me, that's a huge red flag. Now, if I have Austrian assistance and German neutrality, absolutely, pitch the fleet south and cross that line early because if you're successful, then a solo is looking pretty good. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I wouldn't have moved it there, personally. If you move to the WES, you're telling Italy that you want a fight. So you have to commit to building F Mar, right? Couple that with A Par and you've got the makings of a war that is more favorable toward you. However, you've still got that army in Por, which means you've got 3 armies trying to squeeze through a one-army space at Pie. One you can convoy to NAf but the other two must wait for fleet assistance. Now, the move is sure to beging to possibly net you a build or so, but not immediately, and if I'm Germany and France pulls south quickly, I'm shoving armies into Pic, Bel and any other place they can go because I've got an easy target.
The assault on Italy is fine if you have help from Austria and something at home in case of a stab, but without Austria on board, it's really difficult to out-muscle Italy in an area that he can easily slow you or stalemate you..
That said, if I picked up a game where some French player moved A Par to Gas, F Bre to MAO, and A MarSpa, I have a few choices. If Germany is gung-ho about storming England, who is easy pickings, I convince Germany to bounce England at the NTH and I move to the IRI. If I feel a soft spot for England, I take Por with the fleet and return Gas to Par because I want units stacking that line and make the move to help England into Bel (via fleet, not convoyed army). If I really feel comfortable with Germany and he will take on England by himself and I want to storm Italy, I get Austrian assistance - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Bump - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Thanks Majormitchell and Uclabb. Ill post some thoughts on them now.
To the Major: I didnt necessarily have an issue with Russia moving or not moving to Gal, moving or not moving the fleet to Rum or the BLA or not moving the army to Rum, the issue I had was that he did all of them. As I said, Russia needs to have a clear enemy in 01 and a clear path to combating that. His military might is only good while he has at least a 1 unit advantage or more on his target. The moves, to me, say he is wanting to see how things developed with the fall moves before he picked a route, and in my experience, when I do poorly with Russia, I have moved slowly in the beginning and kept pace with those around me. If R is planning an Austrian assault, then dont be afraid to move to Gal and have an army in Rum. If its Turkey and he has agreed to DMZ the BLA, then move there yourself as well as Rum with the army. You can still build tje fleet you wanted but it puts you one season up on your foe. Russia's big advantage is that he can instill fear into anotjer smaller power if done right.
Now to Uclabb:
1) Yes-the IRI. Having a fleet in the IRI puts pressure on another center, can still support a new fleet into the ENG and can assist in supporting a convoy to Wal or even Cly. The more centers you can apply pressure to, the stronger your assault because your opponent has more "guesses" to make about where you will move and how you will do it.
2) I didnt mean to allude to an idea that the bounce was bad. Its bad if it was done without thought, or that the bounce was the default. Given the situation in the east, Germany shouldn't fear a RT if it hits the board because it's going to be very slow (not that Im saying there's a RT). Russia has a fleet in Rum, nothing in Gal, Turkey has nothing in the AEG yet, gained only one build, and that one Turkish build is facing the Russian side of things. Russia's primary focus is the south. That said, had there been no bounce, I would call A StP and F Sev for builds and little to fear by way of a German attack from Russia.
3) The Turkish moves indicate pretty clearly who he's plying for in terms of an ally. I will wait to discuss the army capabilities until after the spring because of the board make up and I dont want to spoil anything.
4) If I were Italy, I wouldnt be afraid for Venice. If Austria moves on Italy this early, he would be turning his back on both Turkey and Russia. Austria can attack Italy if (a) he knows of a fleet build and (b) he knows of a war between R and T, but I dont think that's the plan for the east. Italy needs to be thinking about build #2, not defense.
5) Concerning the units that held: War-depends on where Russia is going. If there is peace with Austria, get it into Moscow and on to Sev, if there will be war with Austria, get it into Gal. Sil and Pru aren't the best choices because with 1 build, and no clear F v G war, he can't afford to engage in another fight.
Vie-nowhere. I like Vie. If you're going to move Vie, do it in the Spring so that you can do something else in the fall. If you really wanted to do something with it, agree to a bounce with Austria in Tri and stage a false war. I think the hold was fine.
Yor-nowhere except maybe Wal. If there is going to be a war with France, you need that army at home slowing France down and Yor covers 4 of the 5 empty zones in just one move, can still support an English fleet move to Lon or a hamdful of decent things. Now, if you knew F would be in the ENG, then I would be in Wal because it stops a convoy and covers Lon in the same shot with a self-standoff using the NTH while the NRG takes Nwy, bit not knowing the French move, Yor is best. - : Re: I'm not making any comment, I'm just predicting England is SplitDiplomat
If I were a betting man, Id say hes not. But whoever it is will capitalize on a CD, much like he should. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 2.2
We would love to have you. We have a talented crew. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 2.2
We still have an open spot. If anyone would like to join, we would love to have you. Open to anyone. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
FALL 1901
The fall of 01 is really where the action begins. Alliance begin to show and take root, players see the fruits of their diplomatic labors and some feel that bit of uneasyness when promises are broken and they begin to feel like a target and not an ally. For this season I will have a lot to say for nearly all countries and I will make some predictions on builds but leave out an explanation because it's based on how I see the game shaping and not based on press that occurs among nations.
The West
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Germany
The clear choice for the top western power, the moves were pretty clear and even the most elementary student could have predicted the moves having played a few games in the past. The only reason a German would have moved otherwise would be to opt out of a build for "safety's sake" bit I see no reason that should be the case. The one curiosity is the Russian bounce at Sweden. Newer players are more prone to bouncing for bouncing's sake but as one gains more experience, they learn that a bounce should not necessarily be the norm. This leads me to believe that one of a few things have occurred: (a) Germany had some suspicious press come his way and felt the need to bounce him out, (b) the Russian asked him to do so-which happens when he feels two builds would paint him as a target (c) there's an alliance structure on the map that calls for the need of a bounce. (d) something in the thread here spooked him - which I hope isn't the case. Here, if I were Germany, and I was going to figjt in my sphere and have an English target, I would have moved to the NTH. If it was against France, I would not have necessarily bounced Russia unless I want to guarantee an English build. Other than those, there's not much reason for a bounce which will just irritate someone you aren't planning a war with early on, so I'm eager to learn the reason behind it. If it was merely a whim bounce, it's best to leave it alone. Great first year! A pace like this is the envy of every country. For builds, I'm predicting F Kie and a pair of armies, with the remote possibility of a build deferrment.
France
In the clear second spot, I'm a bit less thrilled about your moves. The move to the ENG, while it helps nab English centers, it strands your Por army for an entire year before it can even defend, let alone strike. I would have opted for the convoy option for quicker results. The ENG move is very telling and while England has an army on the island, it will be slower to take him down. plus, there's not much the ENG fleet can do without German assistance unless an army build in Bre occurs which I don't expect. Anyhow, any game where France has 2 builds in the first year and no clear enemies is a formula for success. For builds, I anticipate the standard F Bre and A Par.
England
As miserable as the spring was, you made up for it in the fall and have a clear goal. I don't know if the ENG was an agreed upon move or not, but it looks like you could have an ally somewhere in the mix and a 02 build. I had predicted a northern opening for you in the spring and things panned out for you now. What I really liked was the hold order for A Yor. Yor is the premier defensive location for an army having the ability to defend any home center as need arises. Depending on the French, next year could contain high levels of stress or a great deal of comfort. Clearly, I predict no builds. Good luck in 02.
The East
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Russia
I like Russia for the top eastern spot, although everyone has something good going for them. The Swe bounce was unfortunate but you have other things going for you instead. For one, it looks like two DMZs were agreed upon and followed through with and you've still got your choice of ally, although the F Rum is more favorable toward Austria instead of Turkey. I can understand the move, however, since it allows you to build in Sev if need be. The successful DMZ of the BLA is what I like the most. Anytime I can talk Turkey into a BLA DMZ and we follow through with it, the better because it only strengthens my position. The only real doubt I have with your position is that it's a lazy opening. Russia is not the non-committal type. One thign I have learned about playing it successfully, and I learned this the hard way, is that more than any other country, Russia has to be a beast right out of the gate. If his growth isn't keeping him one or two units up on his neghbors, then he won't be able to survive if someone attacks. Russia is not an easily defended country and it takes lots of units to secure ots territory. This is only accomplished by a quick start. By now, you should have selected an enemy and moved on him. With both A and T agreeing to a DMZ, you should have considered breaking one of those and getting a foothold into your next centers. A slow Russia is simply waiting for a western power to move in and crush him before he can produce the units necessary to fight along two or three fronts. That said, not a bad start and I expect you to get rolling next year. For the Winter adjustments, it's a tough call but I'd lean toward A StP, A War or F Sev. You've got to make a choice and that choice will likely be reflected in your build choice.
Austria
At number two, you've got a pretty good start. The Gal DMZ was better for you than for Russia and it looks like a friendly Italian to boot. I totally agree with the Balkan Gambit opening since it nets you two builds and room to be diplomatic. I won't get into alliance structures at this point but I have my suspicion I know how this will form itself. There's one thing bugging me and it's the return to Tri. The bounce in Gal and return to Tri tells me you're not feeling comfortable with the press you're getting from your neighbors. Some Italians would be a bit offended in your lack of trust but ultimately, if you're planning army deuces for builds, it doesn't really matter. I still think that you'll be one of the stronger countries in the east and the nice 01 start helps that. As for builds, I'll go out on a limb and guess at two armies.
Italy
The third and fourth spot with Turkey could go either way, but I like your positioning far more, hence the thord position going to you. As a Lepanto fan, I can empathize with the clear moves you've got. There's no pressure from France, and won't be for a long time, no Russian army in either Gal or Rum and there will be no fleet build for Turkey in Smy which all entirely play into your setup. The next step is simply to formupate a plan amd keep focused. A fleet build in Nap is my clear call this Winter.
Turkey
Pulling up the rear, you're not in a bad spot but you've got less going for you. The DMZ of the BLA helped Russoa more than you and the F Rum move by Russia helped Austria over you as well. Now, the fact that Sev is empty for a build and you've got no place other than Ank to put a unit will place a strain on your relationship with the Russian. It can cause a bit of schitzophrenia--is Russia building a fleet to storm the BLA? If so, I'd better build a fleet. Is he building an army? What about the Italian? Austria has a fleet in Gre...All of these things can cause a player to doubt press that's coming in. All of this goes back to how well you know those around you and who you're comfortable with. I suspect that this next year will be particularly difficult for you, but time will tell. I suspect that an army will hit the map. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
@MajorMitchell: Theres a couple of quibbles I have with your comments. The first is that the way youre posting can influence a game in progress. People posting to this thread need to understand that this is a game in progress and certain comments may have in-game effects that we frown on.
That said, I hardly deem Germany as a major threat. Sometimes countries have 3 builds but that doesn't mean that they should be mobbed on as a result. The fact is that Germany has 3 builds because everyone allowed it and it's a bit bad to allow someone three builds and then attack them as a result simply because of them playing to an advantage. I'd be way more fearful of a 3-build France than a 3-build German because of the defensive power of France, but it doesn't mean that having the extra build spells doom to the rest of the board. It means that someone took Belgium in 1901 instead of 02, sort of like advanced payment. It's still likely that a country like Germany will only gain 1 build or less next year. It's sort of like Russia skipping a Swe buipd build in 01 and picking it up in the following year with another center--all of a sudden, playwers get anxious about a 2-build Russian in 02.
Second, had Russia moved to Sil, he would have been automatically bounced out of Swe and, while he might take Ber, he can't hold it next year and he pisses off Germany in the first year. In order to pull off that stunt, you have to know there will be a German gang-up early on. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
@Goldfinger: Great question. However, I think the issue here, given the situation, isn' that the MAO fleet is for defense, although you are correct in that a convoy is the same as simply shuffling units, keeping the fleet in the MAO has several possible purposes:
(a) A convoy to Por in the event of Mar bouncing in Pie or Bur (not seen here)
(b) A quick move into northern waters, as you mentioned, however it does so alone and indicates an attack on England prior to builds giving England to build A Lvp instead of A Edi followed by a convoy out when the fleet shifting occurs (here it's unnecessary-although it does always signal French intentions)
(c)Allows for a faster return trip. Keep in mind that an army in Por takes an entire year to return to action by moving via land but maintaining a fleet in the MAO and suspending its full usefulness to convoy a Por army back into action at either Gas or Bre can prove invaluable.
(d) It allows the fleet to push into the Med in the spring if F Mar is built which speeds up an attack. From there, the Por army can be convoyed to NAf while French fleets are positioned in GoL and WES to commandere Tunis or convoy to Tus in a swift move.
Here, it's not going to be a defensive move because there's nothing to defend against. What the French do with it is entirely up to where he wants to go, who he works with, and what his short-term goals are (goals that take 1 to 2 years to carry out) and it's not my place to say one way or another what's best for him at this stage. However, I do have an idea of what I would like to see and I will comment on that next season. I've found that when I put too much commentary out there, players tend to follow my views and it changes the game.
Not sure if KingRashard wants to field this question as well or not but I'll leave the floor open to him as well. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I disagree about France being "wide open". Germany wont move inon Bur. It makes no sense-- you forego a third build to move into a zone that will be covered by two new French builds and you force him to build two armies instead of an army and a fleet and also force him to seek aid from an England that would be more willing to work with a 5-center France than a 6-center Germany.
France doesnt really have much to worry about unless three nations move on him in 01, and even then, the army in Gas covers a lot of ground.
For he Lepanto- I like it. Its neutral for the first year instead of moving on Austria which is a highly committal opening that you have to be sure about. If I did anything different, it would include a move to Pie instead of a hold. I've seen a growing trend in French players pushing into the Med in 02 and 03 and Italian buiods slow way down in the second year.
I do agree about Russia wishing he had two north on a phase like this spring, which goes back to the Gal bounce.. Im eager to see the fall moves and I expect to have a lot to say. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
SPRING 1901
Each season, I will have some general comments and then break the game down into the two spheres and list the countries in order from strongest position to weakest. This early, its often based on opening but does not mean one position is "stronger" than another--usually.
That said, there are certainly things that need addressing and some powers are definitely in a better spot than others.
The West
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Germany
Given the self-standoff in the NTH, you're looking beautifully. The 3 builds coming to you this year is a rarity that is always more a blessing than a curse, although some might argue otherwise and try to dissuade you from taking all 3. In terms of your opening, I prefer the Denmark Blitzkreig over the Danish variant far more because it's generally regarded as neutral even though it's less popular with Russia, while the Danish opening is more committal and reserved for special occasions. For the fall, I expect to see 3 builds. Great job, although that job was more the movements of other countries.
France
At the number two spot, it's not a bad number two. I will start by saying that I generally disagree with the opening. because the Gascony opening, in my mind, is more telling and affords less opportunities than opening one army to Pic. I know that the convoy that will follow is more convenient and defensive in case England opens to the Channel, but a Channel opening is not frequent, it gives up on Bel altogether, and if I'm playing England, I always fear French fleet sliding into the IRI or NAO in S02. Here, it has the added disadvantage of preventing a 3 build Germany from popping onto the map. A move to Pic allows you to offer Bel to either England or Germany and can buy an ally with the promise of support. Now, that said, I don't hate the move because Gas is a spot I love to park an army if I am trying to honor DMZs while wanting instant protection to any home center in just one move. This fall, I expect to see two builds.
England
Oops. By now, you have opened your game and seen the accidental self-standoff and you've got that queasy feeling in your gut, swearing and/or punching old ladies and kicking puppies. Clearly, you have more ground to make up than most players. I am obligated to start by telling you the obvious--most games where England botches something in 1901, spring or fall, and doesn't get a build, everyone views it as proverbial blood in the water and a feeding frenzy ensues. Now, having said that, you are, no doubt, sending frantic messages to your neighbors seeking some sort of sign that things will be all right. I tend to be a bit more empathetic toward English players if I'm playimg France or Germany and will sometimes try to ally with the cripple because they are frequently a sure ally that can't turn on me very easily. However, it has been my experience that English botches result in early graves because of the power imbalances that result. It tells the east that the west will consolidate into two powers far more quickly than normal and that they had better get their act together or figure something else out. While it will be difficult to bounce back, it is not impossible and with enough press, the right moves and a lot of determination, it can be done. Don't throw in the towel because there is almost always something you can do to turn things around.
The East
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There really isn't much to say here. The span of vanilla openings aren't telling. I expect to see 1 build from both Turkey and Italy and two for Russia and Austria. It's difficult to make any assumptions from things and I agree with the openings presented. No country is the stand-out leader and in the fall, there will be more to say. Usually, in openings like this, I expect to see three countries working to find the affections of Austria but who the benefactor(s) will be is entirely up to the press. Lepantos are almost always discussed and most of the east expects to see one when they occur, and when they don't occur, only Austria expects to see it :). The BLA bounce is always expected, but I usually try to avoid a Gal bounce where possible. For both Russia nad Austria, it allows me to move more freely with my units. Russia would have had the opportunity to move two north or simply hold while Austria would have had plentiful opportunities. Usually if I'm agreeing to a DMZ, I keep it because by not keeping it, I commit myself to an assault before I know what the rest of the east is doing. So, take it as me saying "try first to avoid a bounce unless your partner forces the issue". - : Re: Question for the Top 100 Players
It is a lot of work at first, but if you keep up on it, its not too bad. - : Re: Have you ever...
Ill say the link is posted in another thread, but I cant post it here. I will watch the game to see how it goes tho. - : Re: Have you ever...
Not to imply that people who get stabbed are idiots, just merely that you see a stab and think "oh man, this is gonna be messy". Ive noticed that when I play against experienced crowds, its hard to find those opportumities but when you witness one, ya gotta wonder what the press that follows is. I had a few people swear my head off and thats when I know it was a good one. My favorite was when someone said "wtf is wrong with you dick face". - : Re: Question for the Top 100 Players
@zultar: same here. Ive learned quite a bit from self-analysis. Its both fulfilling and depressing when you discover shortcomings. - : Re: Question for the Top 100 Players
Yes. Its called pride. I have those same stats and more stored on my flash drive but I dont post them publicly because they can be used against me. - : Re: New school of War
@smcbride - you should be contacted by your TA as the game warrants it. The way I view it is that the student is the driving force and the TA is the guide. Early on, the TA's should be sending messages about how to play the country in general, some nice tips, and anything pertinent that the TA deems so. As the game progresses, it's likely that the TA will have students take the reigns more and allow them to ask questions that they have.
Each season, I would ask the student "what is the board telling you", "why do you think x moved the way they did", "what are the builds telling you?" "who do you trust?", etc when I was a TA. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Absolutely. I encourage anyone following the game to ask such questions, especially the people who didn't get into the SoW games this season. - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Pre-Game:
Each phase, I will post my thoughts on each country individually starting with what I believe is the top country on the map and work my way to last place. Place is based on position, opportunity and center strength and thus the top country might not always be the guy with the most centers. I will give my "professional" opinion as a reflection on what has occurred and comment on whether the moves were good or bad and, for the most part, not comment on possible future events. During retreat phases, I may or may not comment depending on whether the situation warrants it while the Builds, or Winter Phase, I will post my predictions on builds without giving an explanation as to not give away vital details in an effort to help students learn to critically read the board by asking "why is that so?". At various points, I will try to give insights into past seasons on why I said what I did and will attempt to always provide information that might strengthen core fundamentals as I understand them.
As a general overview, keep your press in mind. If you do nothing else, always make sure to continue press where you are able. I believe that press frequency is, in many ways, more valuable than content alone. Check in often to avoid NMRs because theu destroy games--both yours and those that rely on your regular play.
Last, make sure to talk to your mentors. Great pains were made to set you all up with capable players in your area. Use them for their insights but be your own player. Try to not let my posts influence what youre doing because while I do have the skill to read a board, the diplomacy behind the situations can provide information that might cause me or someone else to misread a situation.
I wish you all good luck, and hope that this is an invaluable game for you regardless of the outcome. No one wins and draws in all games, and sometimes a loss is inevitable and no amount of press or tactical play can turn some games around. - : Re: New school of War
Lol, I was thinking the same thing. Gimme France any day. - : Re: New school of War
lol. I'm abysmal at Turkey - : Re: New school of War
Ooo, Ive gotta +1 the assignmemt. Ive played most of the group, and some of them as they were playing their assigned country. This is a strong line up. Thanks jmo...if thats your real name. - : Re: Lies and Dagger
There are a lot of people that feel that lying in this game is immoral and it goes against their personal beliefs. I don't see it in this game. Everyone has (or should have) the mind-set that nearly everyone in the game is going to try to deceive them at one point and they will stab for personal gain. To that end, I see no problem lying, because people expect that it will happen. It's sort of like playing Catan and not using the robber to steal. It's part of the game, people expect it.
How far you can go is entirely up to the make-up of the lie, the board, and how much the person being lied to buys into it. I've earned solos off of lies before. It's all in the lie and the timing.
Just remember one key thing: if you allow yourself to be lied to and stabbed, you deserved it. That's what I use to bounce back from a harsh defeat. A large part of being duped falls on your own plate. - : Re: New school of War
Which countries are the TA's designated for in Game 1? - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
Sure. Bumps and basic info are permissible :) - : Re: Official Thread for School of War Summer_12 Game 1
I'll post some opening comments once the game starts. - : Re: So, has anyone ever seena triple build 01 Italy?
I agree with MM. Sometimes as Austria, or any country, when you find yourself in a bad situation, you habe to trust someone, even when you have no one to trust, and make yourself more vulnerable in hopes someone is telling the truth. If you never trust anyone in the game, you usually cause your own downfall. - : Re: So, has anyone ever seena triple build 01 Italy?
My guess is that someone's bragging :) - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 2.0
If everyone in the game will agree to a restart, then we can restart. What I dont want is to lose anyone in the game because of restart fatigue. - : Re: New school of War
As soon as all 7 players are in, I'll create a thread for the School of War Spring 2012 and post opening comments. - : Re: New school of War
When is it scripted to start? - : Re: How old are y'all?
33 almost 34 (Aug 16) - : Re: The Great Debate: Mujus, Crazy Anglican, Nigee, semck, SC vs. My Fellow Atheists?
I might get in on this as a Christian. - : Re: You are posting too frequently please slow down......
In a democracy? Maybe not. In a free-market, capitalist society? Yes.
I'll also +1 Draug :) - : Re: Generating Noobs
Ill take first come first serve whenever I see my buddy logs in a second time. @dipplayer, Id be happy to help at that time. My son has at least 7 years. - : Re: Generating Noobs
One guy has already created his account, but the other one, his roommate, has not. I'd like to simply check to make sure they like the game and understand some of the site ethics, like not allying with friends because they're friends, not NMRing or CDing, etc. - : Re: Juggernaut Fear, Reasonable or Oversubstantiated?
I'll admit that my Juggernaut definition is a bit narrow, but there ought to be more of a clear line. After all, there are any number of alliances that are equally strong, but not too many people stress about those.
I guess, ultimately, I'm simply trying to dispel a myth. While I love the intrigue, I find that it's getting harder and harder to play Turkey and everyone begins fighting for Austrian affections. What's she got? Geez...dress a woman in red and the others go crazy. - : Re: FINISHED 50 GAMES on WEBDIP !
Wow, I've been here 3 and a half years and just hit 50. That's pretty fast. - : Re: Juggernaut Fear, Reasonable or Oversubstantiated?
I pretty much agree. Ive noticed that a lot of the board will talk to Russia and Turkey and tell them they are willing to ally so long as they arent allied with the other power. That sort of dynamic isnt found with any other country pair. After all, Russia doesnt spout to England that hes willing to work with him if he allies with France. It seems that many players--and not just noobs--will immediately gang-rape Russia or Turkey if theres even a whisper that theyre working together.
This isnt a reference to any single game but rather a trend I noticed that even I have come accustomed to supporting even when playing countries like Italy who could easily benefit with R and T joining in on an Austria gang up that turns into a IT or IR afterward, or when playing a western power that has less to fear if Russia opens 3 south or Turkey and Russia bounce in the BLA for multiple seasons.
A Juggernaut is at its most feared when R and T DMZ the BLA and immediately get rolling. If that occurs and Russia can get his flwet out into open waters and the west is complacent at that point, it can be deadly in the right hands.
Even with that said, I have yet to play a game where a RT alliance was played successfully and didnt break down in the midgame. - : Re: Juggernaut Fear, Reasonable or Oversubstantiated?
People often confuse a Juggernaut with a simple RT as well, and it has begun to bar Russia and Turkey from even working together and they must fight for Austrias allegiance. There is a difference between a Juggernaut, in which R moves Mos to StP, and a RT, where Russia keeps Mos in the south and is far less troublesome to the west. What are your thoughts on this issue? Should countries across the map work to prevent R and T from allying under any circumstance or is the RT fear adequately placed? - : Re: Full Disclosure IV - Aborted due to CD Austria.
Sounds fine. Ill be an awfully busy guy...5 games plus one on playdip and the SoW. Good thing Ill have two of them ending in a week or so. - : Re: Full Disclosure IV - Aborted due to CD Austria.
Still looking for checkins? - : Re: New school of War
I'm not really trying to start an argument, but people always have a feeling about their play style. As an in-progress teacher of mathematics, you'll hear people say they "suck at math" all the time, and while someone might not be good at it, I strongly believe that it's merely because they haven't cued in on something that helps them understand a topic. People, in general, have no problem saying that they suck at something, whether it's true or not. The issue isn't whether or not others think they suck, but how they feel about their own play. That's the ultimate criteria for being a student. If someone feels that they are really lacking in some aspect that many others seem to have gained some insight into, they may feel that they suck at the game. It's not a problem for someone to self-evaluate and that's what we need people to do. What the School of War isn't (or at least shouldn't be) designed to do is take someone that has a pretty firm grasp on the game join and pit themselves against a group of people that are certainly not on their level expecting to gain some deep insight or revelation that creates the perfect player. The SoW is all about and some tricks-of-the-trade.
After all, you may not remember, but Jacob was in one of earliest SoW games and by that point, he had already won about a dozen games and drawn in a considerable amount as well. So, I'm sorry if you felt offended by the comment, but let's not make it more of an issue than it really is. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 2.0
Needing 1 more player for game 2 and it can start. I'll check the status of it tonight and see where it is. If we're still down a player, I'll join and finish it up. - : Re: New school of War
@MM: I think you were reading too deep into it. I needed a clear definition between "someone who has more to learn" which is everyone, and the person who has played 40-50 games and still cant find that way to win and draws in only a few games and cant figure out how to find themselves in a draw situation. This os often due to a lack in some sort of fundamental whether its not having the ability to read the board, finds themselves being stabbed really frequently or often mis-time stabs.
My statement was pretty blunt, but not intentionally harmful.
Ill also say that there are some things that can be taught but other things simply cannot be.
@jmo: you can put me down as a prof. - : Re: New school of War
@Aurevir: I'm sure it's not outside the realm of possibility to get 2 games going. - : Re: New school of War
@all those that aren't sure if they'll fit into the "new" player category to fill the role of student:
"new" simply means relatively new to the game (having played some games and want to learn some great tricks but know the basics) or has played for a while and still feels they really suck. - : Re: Full Disclosure IV - Aborted due to CD Austria.
If we don't get anyone, I'll take the spot. Someone can create the game and pass out the info to the other players. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 2.0
@Bas: that's what I think. I believe dipplayer will join today. I sent him what I believe was the password and if not, he can get it from someone that's in the game, and that means Game 2 needs 1 more person.
@ODaly and brainbomb: Game 4 needs a replacement if one of you would like to send a message to Draug or post in the Game 4 thread. Austria bailed.
@CS: nope, you're just fine :) - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 2.0
I sent you the info. That gives us 6 out of 7. If the last person (CSteinhardt) doesnt log in within the next 24 hours, Ill join so it can get started. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 2.0
For the most part, that is the original players. There were 2 replacements that I know of. Im trying to make sure the game gets filled. Dipplayer, has domeone gotten the info to you? - : Re: New school of War
I'm interested. I've proffed and TA'd in the past. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game 2.0
7 of the 8 players below should be in the game. I'm not sure who is missing and who is present.
goldfinger0303
CSteinhardt
slyster
basvanophsen
dipplayer2004
JulianLo
Tru Ninja
If there are others who wish to play in the game and some people can't make it, please post interest here as well. - : Re: Why did this happen? Possible bug?
The misorder should have cost you the game.
Im not sure why Kestas hasnt fixed that bug, because its clearly a flaw and one that will cause people to leave the site if it continues to affect games... - : Re: A thread for the Gross...
I did happen to see a coroner's report for a guy that was caught in a wood chipper. Eye-witnesses said they saw the man get pulled in when his gloves got hooked on a branch. By the time his coworkers got there to try to pull him out, all that was left of him was from the knees down. The coroner's report had pics but has since been removed from the net. They found about 160 lbs worth of the 180 lb man and some parts were "identifiable" including a few fingers and "an uncircumcised penis".
Needless to say, he was pronounced dead on the scene. - : Re: Need sub for a good position Germany
So... - : Re: Need sub for a good position Germany
Im interested. Is this the only game I would need to sub for and are there special rules regarding this game? - : Re: Using WebDiplomacy as a calculator.
I use RealPolitik it takes some gettimg used to, but its good. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Ive played Draug several times and never had an issue. We get along just fine and Id play him again with no reservations. Not sure where your issue with him came about but you seem far more antagonistic. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Looks like game 3 isnt going to get off the ground. Sorry for everyone who joined waiting to start playing. If anyone wants to be used as a sub, please post here.
Game 2 will get dropped but whenever CS comes back from vacay, we will start it up. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Why not join it and ill have a mod pause it until you return? otherwise we have to recreate the game and get everyone to rejoin. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Goldfinger is the only person not yet on for Game 2. Hell be back Sunday and you should be up and ready. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Still looking for a few people for game 3. If I can find 2 more, Ill join it to fill it up. Anyone out there wanting to join? - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Game 2 wouldnt even start until goldfinger joins on Sunday sometime and if youre not back, I can arrange for a mod to pause it for a day or whatever you need. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Id be glad to have you.
That leaves game 3 needing a sub left. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
So we will need one for game 2 and game 3. Both are WTA anonymous classic 36-hour phase games. Game 2 is a 50
buy in and game 3 is a 25 buy in. - : Re: Offensive Username Contest
ROFL @ WhiteSammy! Whats even more amusing is that if he is not in any games, his points refill to something like 5 or 10, not the usual 100 - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Were still missing 1 player from game 1 and game 4, and 3 players from game 2 and 3. I know goldfinger (game 2) will be back in town thos Sunday sometime but the remaining players still need to sign on. Some games have 3 days before deadline. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
@1008michael: Yeah, its still happening. We are currently looking for a replacement for game 3. Ots a WTA, anonymous, 36-hour phases, 25 buy in game. If youre interested, youll have to message achillies27 for the password.
If games dont fill up within the final day or so of their start date, I will take anyone who has interest as a sub. The games are as follows:
Game 1: 48-hour phases, 100 buy in
Game 2: 36-hour phases, 50 buy in
Game 3: 36- hour phases 25 buy in
Game 4: 48-hour phases, 5 buy in
all are WTA anonymous classic games. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
@Fortress Door, if game 4 doesnt start in the next few days, you can sub for whoever is missing. Its a 5 buy in. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Fortress Door was the first replacement option but he onpy has 5 remaining. MarshallShore, if youd like to sub for Chakanya then its fine. Thanks for picking it up. Get the password from achillies for game 3.
@Chanakya: can I use you as a sub if need be when you get back? - : Re: Are there people out there who are using Jdip
Sometimes I use RealPolitik to plan an intense season or two. Never used jdip. - : Re: A Question I Never Thought I'd Have To Ask...How Do YOU Read the Bible?
I briefly saw in this thread that there was talk of which translation to use.
Many translations are good enough for the casual reader. The differences are pretty minor and one cant really say that one major translation is better than another. I tend to stick tothe KJV, NKJV, NIV and NASB which has been argued to be the closest word for word translation of the "originals". I often steer clear of the Message Bible and other pseudo-Bibles that are paraphrases or are merely a "newer" copy of an older English version. Anytime you change from Greek/Hebrew/Aramaic to English, you lose some meaning. This os compounded when you go from English to English and use synonyms or approximations in the second version because these additional copies dont use the older manuscripts as a guide and you can go off the deep end with somw things.
Now, it should be noted that for over 1500 years, weve been using non-originals. The original manuscripts have long been lost but we have old copies of copies and when we compare the some 25000 handwritten fragments of the NT alone, we see that they are near perfect in detail. Hence the different translations we have today. Some translations use one fragment for a specific passage while another version uses another with a slight variation. That said, I stick to any trqnslation that uses the old fragments we have as the source of its translation. - : Re: Abbreviations
One thing is that by convention, sea zone abbreviations are all caps while land zones habe the first letter capitalized and the rest in lower case unless the zone is more than one word. - : Re: All Full Disclosure Games Are Up
Thats pretty much it in a nutshell.
Thanks fortress door! ill put you on the sub list. - : Re: A Question I Never Thought I'd Have To Ask...How Do YOU Read the Bible?
Ive read tue Bible through quite a lot of times and I still read it. I found that when you treat it like any other book, its dry and boring. However, if you know that this is work is a very intricate historical work, and you read each book and compare it with what you read in other books of the Bible, take notes, make references, and work to learn the meanings behind the words as well as try to understand it from the point of view of the writers knowing about daily life of the human race at that time, the Bible comes alive. It gives you a deep appreciation for it and opens you up to many other things and you begin to desire to read it.
Compare it loosely to someone who tries wine, someone who drinks wine and someone who is a wine taster. Clearly, the wine taster--who has mulled over the flavor and takes time to appreciate a wine for the subtle details and flavors--has a deeper appreciation than the others. - : Re: All Full Disclosure Games Are Up
Game 1: http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=89081
Game 2: http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=89286
Game 3: http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=89146
Game 4: http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=89090 - : Re: EoG TheFlyingGunboat
FrickinZeus - Any win is a good win. If theres a CD, I respect the other players enough to draw the game, but if its just a NMR that plays in my favor then Ill take it. NMRs happen from time to time amd even to the best of us. Thats why it pays to log on right before the season ends and check to make sure everyone submitted orders. If not and someone will NMR, do what you can to take advantage of that.
The best wins come when you can convince a guy to give you his centers for one reason or another. People get emotionally involved in this game and having the ability to capitalize on that is a tactic in its own right.
Congrats on the whin however it comes. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Yes. Ill need everyone to copy the press from the messages tab at the bottom of the game page and save it to either a pdf, word or note pad file and include the game you were in and the country you played.
My email is joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu and if anyone forgets, its on my profile as well. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
I apologize but the games have already started. Could I use you as a fill in if theres a CD in one of the games? - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
I actually like Russia. Ive uad a good run with it. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Ill definitely follow it. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Alright, here are the game line-ups:
FULL DISCLOSURE GAME 1 - WTA, 48-hour phases, anon, 100 buy-in
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tom Bombadil
tasnica
Manas
Tru Ninja
ghug
haert
jmo1121109
FULL DISCLOSURE GAME 2 - WTA, 36-hour phase, anon, 50 buy-in
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
goldfinger0303
CSteinhardt
slyster
basvanophsen
dipplayer2004
JulianLo
Tru Ninja
FULL DISCLOSRUE GAME 3 - WTA, 36-hour phase, anon, 25 buy-in
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
achillies27
theflyingboat
kaime
AncientMemories
Chanakya
FortKnox
Oskar
FULL DISCLOSURE GAME 4 - WTA, 48-hour phase, anon, 5 buy-in
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Draugnar
ODaly
gunfighter06
brainbomb
kremen
thechuff
morto
The first person in each list is to create their game to the specifications, include passwords and send the passwords to the remainder of players in their group. Make sure that the game allows for 10 days for sign ups. If someone needs a different accomodation or has questions, let me know.
Those creating their game have by Monday to create it and send out the password and game link to the others. - : Re: Balance of Power: How to learn it?
That said, when a country is unbalanced and hes not in check, he leads to a solo. Plain and simple.
Plus, ill play a 3 build France over a 2 build France any day just as id play a 3 build russia over a 2 build one. If the nations around allow me to build 3 then ive got something going for me. - : Re: Balance of Power: How to learn it?
@ balls deep: um...thats the reason a 3 or 4 build russia experiences a backlash...because hes an unbalanced power. You merely confirmed what i was saying, not rebutted it. - : Re: Balance of Power: How to learn it?
What i do is look for irregularities. In 1901, its ok for a country to gain 1-2 centers. If a country gains nothing in 1901, it will often mean that a power is under-balanced and another country or two will benefit strongoy early on. If a country gains 3 or more builds in 1901 its often ovee balanced and will have a large advantage.
After the initial year, simply look for countries gaining too quickly. You dont want a country eliminated in 2 to 3 years from the start of the game because it means a power will look to target someone from the other sphere of influence too quickly.
Other things to look for might include a country moving across the stalemate line too quickly to target a power it ordinarily wouldnt or a country successfully taking on two powers at once, etc - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Bump - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Alright, that would put Tom, YJ, and slyster in the game. Id wait if we can find 3 more.
For the low pot game we'd have Achilies and Draugnar--looking for 5 more there. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Tru ninja(48 hours)
goldfinger(36 hours)
dipplayer(no pref)
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil (WTA preferred, 48hrs, preferred)
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster(no pref)
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat(no pref)
haert(48 hrs)
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt
AncientMemories
kaime
kremen(no pref)
morto
tasnica(48 hrs)
JulianLo(no pref)
ODaly(48 hrs)
achillies27(no pref)
FK
basvanophsen
Chanakya(24-48)
@chanakya: im not sure there will end up being a PPSC game. Weve got two interested in that style and the rest are pretty much WTA. Lemme know if thats a problem.
Also YJ might be out unless one game wants to wait to start for an additional month. If we have a group that wants that, lemme know. Otherwise Ill use him as a fill-in in the event of a CD, although Im sure no one intends to do that :)
I also have one other person interested but the pot size needs to be 5. If we have a group that wants a low pot, Ill arrange that.
4 days left to sign up. After that, Ill establish groups, make final cuts if I have to make any due to lack of players, assign someone to make the game for their group and submit passwords to players and youll have a week to join your game.
Thanks to everyone who has signed on making this a great experience even from the start. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Tru ninja(48 hours)
goldfinger(36 hours)
dipplayer(no pref)
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil (WTA preferred, 48hrs, preferred)
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster(no pref)
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat(no pref)
haert(48 hrs)
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt
AncientMemories
kaime
kremen(no pref)
morto
tasnica(48 hrs)
JulianLo(no pref)
ODaly(48 hrs)
achillies27(no pref)
FK
basvanophsen
Im looking for two more people and a few phase length confirmations to have 4 games. It looks like well have at least one 36-hour game and two 48-hour games. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Tru ninja(48 hours)
goldfinger(36 hours)
dipplayer(no pref)
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil (WTA preferred, 48hrs, preferred)
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster(no pref)
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat(no pref)
haert(48 hrs)
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt
AncientMemories
kaime
kremen
morto
tasnica(48 hrs)
JulianLo(no pref)
ODaly(48 hrs)
achillies27(no pref)
FK
basvanophsen - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer(no pref)
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil (WTA preferred, 48hrs, preferred)
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt
AncientMemories
kaime
kremen
morto
tasnica(48 hrs)
JulianLo
ODaly(48 hrs)
achillies27
FK
basvanophsen
bas, whats your phase length preference? - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer(no pref)
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil (WTA preferred, 48hrs, preferred)
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt
AncientMemories
kaime
kremen
morto
tasnica(48 hrs)
JulianLo
ODaly(48 hrs)
achillies27
FK - : Re: What are the chances of this happening?
Ive seen a 3 center win due to resigns. - : Re: I have a question : Please look to it.
Its because people from southern spain, especially Madrid, dont like the french and therefore they wont support them. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
It goes back to what i was saying a while ago. Its really difficult at best to trace a path to the solo as a trend for any country. What you end up with is a series of paths that vary quite differently from one another. For example, Englan might start out taking norway in 01 and move on to France then Italy and Austria/Germany or he might start at Germany and go to Russia and dip into Austria never really touching France. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
I dont believe those stats will do any good. Its really restrictive and will only generate values slightly different than the normal win percentages. In 1901,a country's choice of centers is very limited and the centers it can reach in the first year are a part of 95%+ of all wins for a country. If you want to know about critical locations, those will come later on. ie: is it better for England to move across the stalemate line through the Mediterranean, through Germany or throuh Russia. That happens later in the game and youll find a much wider spread of percentages. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil (WTA preferred, 48hrs, preferred)
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt
AncientMemories
kaime
kremen
morto
tasnica(48 hrs)
JulianLo
ODaly(48 hrs)
achillies27 - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
And again. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Bump - : Re: New Theory of Online Diplomacy
@SpeakerToAliens: Yes, there's a lot of overlap between what I'm saying and what Thucy is saying, but that's merely because I said that his idea is merely a by-product of what I was saying.
It's far more important to be the frequent talker than it is to be the earliest talker. - : Re: New Theory of Online Diplomacy
Before you label your theory, how about a strong rebuttal from the other side. I, in fact, disagree. I assert that its not who talks to who first, but rather who talks to who *the most*. Now, I do say that who talks first might well be a byproduct of who talks the most, but it is not the chief thing that sways people.
If Im Austria in 1901, and Im playing a 24-hour phase game and I log on about 5 hours after the game started, and I happen to notice that all of my neighbors have already sent me messages, its likely that some have already been talking. In 1901, my goal is to log on frequently and check press and send messages to those who are doing likewise. It might be that Russia and Turkey exchanged some early pleasantries and tossed around some ideas with the agreement to revisit the issues in the fall and not talk further in the first season. However, I have found it very beneficial to continue to talk about other matters. matters of the board, talk among neighbors, early theories, etc, so long as Im talking. Trusting relationships arent built merely woth early words, although it might help. Trusting relationships are built on frequency of togetherness, just as it is in real life. If i spend 5 days hanging out with one friend and 1 hour a week at the beginning of each week, I will have established a stronger relationship with the person I spend more time with. Naturally this type of behavior will spill over into a game where communication is paramount. As Austria, I can overcome an early deficit with simply more positive press.
Now, I did say that tje first one on is a byproduct of press frequency and this is how: if Turkey and Russia happen to both be on for the first hour and share about 30minutes of press sharing and then log off, even if I log on and send a message with the intent to send more as my early messages are received and Turkey only logs back on once this phase, then I missed out on the opportunity to talk more frequently with him than Russia and its likely that Turkey will work with Russia and against me. This isnt ultimately due to the fact tjat Russia spoke first, but rather that Russia and Turkey had the adequate time to form a mutual bond, even if no plans were entirely set in stone, and I simply did not. Not because of my lack of desire to talk to Turkeuly and form a relationship, but because Turkey did not log on frequently enough to allow me to make up the lost ground.
This principle is true even in later stages of a game. If youre not keeping in regular contact with your ally and someone else is, the liklihood of your ally going rogue is grossly heightened due to your lack of attention to a relationship.
Now I would like to test this theory and hence I have set up the Full Disclosure games for a purpose, this being one of them. I have studied the numbers of Diplomacy for a long time and I wish to also study tje less-tangible things tjat make up the game--namely: how press shapes the game. It is my firm belief that I will discover that my theory about alliances will hold true after I begin to examine the press releases. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil (WTA preferred, 48hrs, preferred)
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt
AncientMemories
kaime
kremen
morto
tasnica(48 hrs)
JulianLo
ODaly(48 hrs) - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Ill allow for one more week to sign people. As of Friday next week I will determine the games and players in them. Games will be assigned by GR with emphasis on phase preference and pot size desires. All games will be WTA unless there are 7 players that request PPSC instead.
On monday the 21st, I will have the games created and allow 10 days for players to join to allow maximum time for schedules to settle. If people have need of a pause, that will be discussed within your group. I will be willing to honor pauses but I wont force anyone else to do so although Id like to see players that ask for a pause well in advance have their requests granted so long as the pause needs are reasonable.
After your respective game is over, please email me a copy of your messages tab from the bottom of the game page as either a pdf, note pad document or word file please. Also include your player name and the game name you played in.
After all games are over, I will award players for best country and best overall. Best country will go to the players with the most centers as each of the 7 powers and in the event of a tie, winner goes to the player with the layer based on the largest gap in center ownership between their number of centers and the number of centers owned by the next most powerful nation behind them. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
just his kind of guy ; ) - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
Lol very nice - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
Good luck. Id love to see your results, although im sure youll find some rather well structured things in the first few years but i think that there are so many possibilities for the remaining half dozen centers or so that the structure and predictability will begin to break down.
Lemme know what you find. It might be that each country has several routes that are common. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
T-tests are among the easiest to calculate. i can tell you how to do it in Excel, on a graphing calculator or by hand. If by hand, you just need to look up the critical values on t-tables located online. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
Dont stress over it vaft. Ive been doing various stats for years for this game. I just havent published most of them yet. If you beat me to the punch, then so be it. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
That and i have the stalemate line located for an easy view. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
Theyre pretty similar but i think mine are easier to read. they dont contain numbers but the zones are color coded with blues and deep reds for 80% and higher and lighter reds, oranges and yellows for those below that and non colored for 10% and less. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
ive already compiled a color coded SC control by a soloing country using photoshop. I have dubbed it the "solo radar" and as i told vaft, theres a pretty clear-cut trend for most of the countries about the stalemate line. France and Russia are quite a bit different, R more than F, but the rest often take 17 from one side and one or more from the other. I will eventually post the maps to a website ive been working on once my computer gets fixed. - : Re: What's So Great About This Move?
First off, your have an error in the 1/7 chance. Not sure where you think youre getting this value because the comparison is among only Turkish games and has nothing to do with the other nations. Its merely a comparison to how well Turkey does in one opening move compared to another.
Second, I could perform a test on a sample size of 5 if I wanted, it just requires a test that utilizes small sample sizes. Versus one that uses larger sizes.
Third, the only thing a larger sample size does is allow you to tighten the confidence interval.
Last, there was never any discussion of standard error or standard deviation. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Bump - : Re: What's So Great About This Move?
Lol dumbell.
@dys yeah the systems only differ in the event of a solo. Draws have pots split among all survivors.
There are 2 ranking systems to this site. The official system is like in poker where you ante points in an effort to win more points. Thus a heavier emphasis is placed on points-per-supply-center survivors since they still earn a share of the pot.
The unofficial system is an off-site system that is roughly equivalent to the ELO system in chess. Most players value that system higher - : Re: What's So Great About This Move?
@dys claimer: it appears that most of the games are PPSC, even after WTA was introduced. It also looks like most of the players were pretty green or good players in their early years.
The stats arent a rating system, but they also dont lie. They might easily be misread, as here, so with that said, id say case closed. - : Re: What's So Great About This Move?
@CS in this game it doesnt really pay to be (or pretend to be) clueless since most people recognize most people on this site and if you "botch" your S01 moves, it statistically spells disaster for a country. the first year is the most vital year and the spring is at least as important if not more sp than the fall.
@Cspeiker: it is different than smy holds. Theres an entry for that which has a similar amount of games to it and it way under performs compared to this one.
@disclaymer - i dont think you can argue that point without evidenve. Have you ever used it? Most of the experienced players that have posted to this thread havent used it either. In fact i would be inclined to argue the opposite. New (at least new ones and new to the site) tend to play PPSC and that has more solos than WTA. In addition PPSC sees turkey doing exceptionally stronger than WTA games where players know how to eliminate T more effectively. That could be what were seeing. - : Re: What's So Great About This Move?
I agree with redhouse, though. I'd love to see that correlation. It might be something I work on next. - : Re: What's So Great About This Move?
The stats above are devoid of countries CDing in the first year and are also devoid of Gunboat games. They're simply Classic games where everyone participates (at least early on) - : Re: What's So Great About This Move?
I agree with 2WL, it seems to accomplish nothing except having two units stay put in S01 than one unit, but in 50 games, it's done surprisingly well. - : Re: What's So Great About This Move?
The only thing that I can think is that if
(a) the BLA move succeeds, a convoy can take place to Sevastopol
(b) the BLA bounces, then Con is safe anyhow since there's no Russian fleet already in Rum and an Austrian Serbia army can't take it alone. - : Re: What's So Great About This Move?
I've read through the Turkish file pretty thoroughly and all the regular moves are accounted for and even some bizarre ones, but this is a bit strange. - : Re: What's So Great About This Move?
Either that or Vaft sent me an incorrect piece of info in his file - : Re: What's So Great About This Move?
Seems pretty horrible to me also, but in 52 games, it has the strongest measure of success. So far, I chalk it up to lack of use, especially compared to the other openings, but statistically it's pretty strong, even compared to other openings that have less than 60 uses in 4500 games. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
ODaly, all of them are Classic versions of the game WTA. I gotcha added.
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt
AncientMemories
kaime
kremen
morto
tasnica
JulianLo
ODaly(48 hrs) - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
gotcha
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt
AncientMemories
kaime
kremen
morto
tasnica
JulianLo - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Sorry kremen, i didnt realize you were casting your interest.
Tas, the games will be set up starting the 21st and players will have 10 days to join their assigned game, so youre good.
morto, ill add ya to the group. This is an open invitation. lemme know what you think when its over.
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt
AncientMemories
kaime
kremen
morto
tasnica - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Ill add ya morto as long as I can count on you to not quit partway throuh. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Back to the front - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt
AncientMemories
kaime - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Bumpkis - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
@CS im sure the players in your game will grant a pause. Ill add you to the list.
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
CSteinhardt - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs) - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
manas(48 hrs)
FK(48 hrs)
We're up to 16 players at current - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Can we not turn this thread into a melodrama thread? If draug wants to be removed from the list, ill honor his wish but im going to ask that this topic has its own thread. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug(48 hrs)
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
Draugnar(48 hrs)
thechuff
brainbomb
manas
FK(48 hrs) - : Re: Achievements...?
I think achievements should be limited to tournament wins, really. They give those types of achievements in ftf games (best country, first place, etc). - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Im sure there will be plenty of interest in 48 hour turns. I prefer 48 as well. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
@tas: ill wait until youve solidified a vote before adding you to the list.
Interested:
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
Draugnar
thechuff
brainbomb
manas - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Gotcha Manas.
Gunfighter, theyll probably both start after a couple weeks (one might start in two). Im going to wait until Draug gets his points before any of them start anyhow. - : Re: The metathreads stopped being cute days ago
@PE how original are we talking here? Like triple-big mac original where the originality is merely the extension of another idea or cure for the flu original where its a totally new thing to be accomplished (not necessarily thought of)? - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
@tas : you have time. Some players cant start for a month. You have at least two weeks to post interest and a week or so beyond that before the game would start.
@gunfighter: no prob. When the players get divided into games, well decide pot amounts then and make sure its suitable for all players or shuffle people around if need be as long as the games keep a relatively similar skill level. - : Re: Multi-color map
Dang you ybellz, i was gonna post the exact same thing. Theres a proof for it, too. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Interested
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
Draugnar
thechuff
brainbomb - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Draug, ill be sure to throw you on the list, then. Ill put your name above the bottom two also :) - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Interested:
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
thechuff
brainbomb
That gives us two complete games. Sign-ups will continue for two more weeks (Monday May 28st) at which point I'll post the game line-ups and give about another week for players to sign in and begin. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Yes, I would pool the players together based on GR to create equal opposition. I would utilize GR from the most recent month from where it starts.
As it stands, there would be two games with a couple people playing in both. However, I'd like to get each game so that each person plays exactly one game.
@FK: you could always throw your name into the lot :) - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Too true, draug. Thats what i was thinking. Ill add you to the list tho. I think we have only one person that wants PPSC and i prefer WTA as well. The only time i play PPSC is if i take over a CD in a game that happens to be PPSC. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
No problem to semck and zultar.
@zultar: to answer your site question, the GR site focuses on tournaments and the GR. The site im trying to implement is targeted at web diplomacy based stats, aids for new players and a variety of other things. its not intended to be my work alone but a collective work for anyone who will wish to contribute when the time comes.
sorry for the double post, my thumb hit submit. anyhow an update of those interested is:
Tru ninja
goldfinger
dipplayer
gunfighter(PPSC)
Tom bombadil
ghug
YJ
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar
theflyingboat
haert
@dumbbell: i wouldnt necessarily have a problem in finding a veteran game and asking for messages but anymore players come and go quite frequently that most of the games would be missing a person.
Plus theres enough interest for volunteers that i dont need to go that route. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
No problem to semck and zultar.
@zultar: to answer your site question, the GR site focuses on tournaments and the GR. The site im trying to implement is targeted at web diplomacy basef stats - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Thanks, everyone! I'm in development of a website to post the statistics of web-based Diplomacy onto, and I plan on posting the press onto that site to make it available to anyone who wants to read it, although those that play in the game receive first-dibs.
Interest:
=======================
tru ninja
goldfinger0303
dipplayer2004
gunfighter06 (PPSC)
Tom Bombadil
ghug
Yellowjacket
zultar(?)
semck83(?) - love the gunboat comment lol
slyster
jmo1121109
Oskar - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
I dunno how quickly it would begin. I've got finals next week and my brother is having a wedding "open house" in June. A lot of this depends on the amount of interest, when players can start, etc. I'll put you on the list, though. - : Re: Full Disclosure Game
Post interest or questions here. - : Re: I think I need a break from this game
I have a personal philosophy about this game, and it helps me step back and not get so pissed about a stab. Well, first I should say that I can almost always tell that I'm going to be attacked before it happens, but that comes with experience.
That said, my philosophy is simply "there is no alliance to be had except one that can be forced." Meaning that if I don't force someone to continue to work with me, then I can expect to get stabbed. Ways I "force" someone to work with me is (a) play defensively enough that I don't expose my weak-point to my ally, (b) ensure that my ally always has something to do and (c) keep up regular, well talked-through communication.
If I get stabbed, it's almost always because I've violated one of these rules.
Now, that said, you're always going to find people that play, get screwed and whine about it, throw fits, cuss, and help others solo. It's part of the game. It happens even among veteran players. No one wants to lose, and people invest a lot of emotion into the game and many come into the game with high expectations. When they feel they're not playing up to their abilities or something doesn't work the way they feel it ought to, stuff like that happens. - : Re: Please stop being hypocritical
-1 Draug. I gotta side with Thucy on this one. It's not a matter of telling the others to simply shut up, but to simply be considerate. The other threads were not created because someone simply wanted to share something on the forum, they were created as a joke or as an attack on the original thread. Most of these people that start these types of threads would not say the same things to someone's face, and so it begs the question about why do it on a website?
I behave the same on this site as I do in person. I respect other individuals and I try to be mature about everything I post. I ask that others simply do the same. - : Re: Purposely Delaying?
@maniac think of playing for GR as the same as playing a tourney to maximize points. Its simply sound playing. If you know that an eatly win in a tourney will cause others to eliminate you in later games then you play for the draw unless a solo puts you so far in the lead others cant come back. theres many reasons youd alter your play method to suit a current need.
@CS if your next game is going to be a defeat, i prefer it to be at the beginning of the month to lessen its impact on the month. Companies do it by selling as much stuff at the end of a fiscal quarter to make that quarter look better. Lots of factories work OT at the quarter end for that reason. Its deceptive since the defeat is going to be there regardless but it makes you look temporarily better than you otherwise would. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
@YJ marginally, yes. That depends on how many games were dealing with tho. If theres only a few hundres or less, one game can change the percentages more strongly than one game on ten thousand. After all, if youre looking at 100 games and 5 end in solos, we dont know the circumstances that surround those 5. I could be playing some noobs and i open with F Edi-NTH, F Lon-NTH in S01 and id still feel confident that i can still solo. You never know how many of those games are flukes like that. It could be that the opening i described only solos in 1% of all games that see it but my 30 occurrences happen to have 5 of them(16%). Thats where percentages become weak and highly misleading. Now if you have 10000 games, the liklihood of finding a 16%% solo of the self-standoff opening is far less likely to occur by fluke. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
Btw, percentages wont tell you if one opening is stronger or not, so dont go by that. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
@spyman- there are two tests that i use to determine the strength of an opening: the t-test and the f-test. Essentiall both tests are the same except for one detail. The idea is that you check to see the averae number of centers an opening yields over the course of its use. If we can isolate the true mean (population mean of all online games ever played) by assuming that the sample we are testing behaves like the population, (the sample is all games played on this site) then we can use the tests to give us a range of mean values (x +/- a certain amount that varies opening to opening) and by comparing the separation of those ranges we can determine if one opening is likely stronger than another with 90% or 95% confidence. The difference between the t and f-tests are that one is used for sample sizes less than 30 and the other is used for larger samples. As long as the sample size is larger than 29, then we can compare them with the same test. The only thing that a larger sample 1000 for example) does is it helps us to state our results with higher confidence.
There is another test i might use called ANOVA which is used when comparin 3 or more sample means tovethwr but i might not.
Im sure that doesnt tell you a whole lot, but thats essentially it. - : Re: Purposely Delaying?
Id also do it if its at the end of the month and i can delay an elimination to the next month to give me time to balance out my GR from the defeat as well instead of throwing another defeat in at the end of the month. - : Re: Purposely Delaying?
I think it depends on the situation as to whether its unsportsman like or reasonable playing. Id do it if i knew the game was going to draw on my demise on the off-chance that they accidentally draw before im gone and give me a 0 center draw. - : Re: Star Wars
I also recommend watching the older ones firse and then moving to the clone wars ones. You get a deeper appreciation for Lucas' original works that way. Thats the way we first saw the movies. I didnt get to see the originals in theater but i saw them when they hit TV. - : Re: Why is my countdown clock perfectly in-sync some days and horribly off on others?
Depends on what's going on in your area. There are a variety of things that can interfere with a connection including other electronic devices operating near your computer. The clock is based on your connection to the servers and depending on interference, you'll see some variability. That's my guess. I believe this is essentially "ping" time. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
Vaft, i dunno what stats you can and cant do but id be happy to share the excel file ive instituted for my numbers on openings statistics and see what pans out. Its up to you though.
@PE- not sure if that was to me or someone else but if it was to me, the 20% i mentioned wasnt based on anything i saw on his stats, it was an arbitrary value i used to illustrate a point. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
The problem, im guessing, isnt the data, its what youre doing with the data. Percentages arent the best method of analyzing data, and when it comes to stastical inferrences, id say theyre among the worst by themselves. is there a significance between 5 and 10%? what does it mean to have a 20% survival percentage? alone, theyre simply numbers. if youre going to make assumptions then you need to know additional information. knowing the expected values is handy, as is coupling the percentages with a t-test or f-test or ANOVA testing to get a bigger picture.
I would argue that neither of the two Northern Opening variations is inherently better than the other and that the most important thing is that England convoys the army regardless of where it is at the start of F01. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
Statistics are like analogies...none of them are perfect, some dont make sense and they crap standing up. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
@roka- the austrian attack is not necessarily a foolish opening. In an analysis i did on opening moves, i subjected the openings to a series of t-tests which is a deeper look than merely looking at raw percentages which can be misleading and while the austrian attack was very comparable to the lepanto, there is some measure of argument that it could be a stronger opening. Their respective standard deviations were too broad to make any definite conclusions but they certainly are stronger than other options available to italy. ultimately, though, stats alone wouldnt be enough to sway such a decision and it would have to come down to board dynamics.
I apologize if this got double-posted...phone error. - : Re: Vaft's opening statistics
@roka- the austrian attack is not necessarily a foolish opening. In an analysis i did on opening moves, i subjected the openings to a series of t-tests which is a deeper look than merely looking at raw percentages which can be misleading and while the austrian attack was very comparable to the lepanto, there is some measure of argument that it could be a stronger opening. Their respective standard deviations were too broad to make any definite conclusions but they certainly are stronger than other options available to italy. ultimately, though, stats alone wouldnt be enough to sway - : Re: CM is back with another problem
Shes probably not even in the US. She typed like a foreigner and her "boss" was in the philippines. On top of that, if she was doing this for herself, she wouldnt have to pay her boss. 15 year old are so naive lol. - : Re: Settlers of Drunktan
Yeah, azobrain hasnt taken new registrants for years, now. I play at catan.com - : Re: What would happen if...
I'm pretty sure the game doesn't count the retreats phase as a "missed phase". I think that missed phases are counted only during spring and fall phases when all players issue orders.
In addition, you can't have a game where everyone goes into CD at the same time. That would mean that: not only would all players hit the "join game" button at the same time exactly down to the millisecond, which is impossible and I could easily show it mathematically, but also the game coding would have to process the join-game clicking at exactly the same time, which it doesn't. Coding issues one command at a time.
Thus, the effects would either be that the last person to join would be the victor, or, depending on the code, the last person that the computer checks for CD. - : Re: quotes
"I get to go to a lot of overseas places, like Canada"--Brittany Spears
and my all-time favorite: comes from Miss Teen USA South Carolina in 2007 when asked why she thought 1/5 of Americans can't locate the United States on a global map:
I personally believe, that U.S. Americans, are unable to do so, because uh, some, people out there, in our nation don’t have maps. and uh…I believe that our education like such as in South Africa, and the Iraq, everywhere like such as…and, I believe they should uh, our education over here, in the U.S. should help the U.S. or should help South Africa, and should help the Iraq and Asian countries so we will be able to build up our future, for us. - : Re: Explain this to me
Nope :) It's going to sit on the forum until it passes away by its own existence. - : Re: NFL schedules were released!! YAY!!
You can actually watch all of your Texans games on the internet if you want. There are various websites that allow you to watch primetime TV from other regions in the US. My wife found them last season and I watched several of late-season Broncos games in my Kentucky house. We streamed it to my TV via my PS3.
The only drawback (and it's very minor) is that there's a delay. Everyone watching it on TV sees the plays as they happen. Your broadcast is going to be anywhere from 1 play to 3 or 4 minutes behind the actual game. - : Re: Tactics Help for New Players
My largest piece of advice is to learn to effectively read the board. There are a large number of people, I've found, that do not have this ability. Reading the board comes down to:
1) looking at the moves made by others (both those that succeed and those that fail). The cliche is that actions speak louder than words, and in this game, it's almost infallible law. People often simply look at those actions of the players near them and ignore those of players that cannot directly impact them in the immediate. If you see the moves made by all of the players, then you can determine the way the board will shape over the years and get a larger picture of what's going on. This is most important in the early years (1901-1903) when the board dynamics are all over the place.
2) Look at the builds and disbands each phase. People build units to suit their immediate need. No one ever builds a unit based on what they'll need two years from now because the immediate need is the most important in gaining new centers for future builds. Armies and fleets have their own capabilities and limitations, and where a build is placed can speak volumes about the direction a player intends on moving.
With the first two, put yourself in their shoes and think "what would I do in this situation?" use this logic to determine why a player is doing what they're doing. I call this 'meta-cognition'. If you can get halfway decent at determining what a player will do based on what they've done and what they have available to them, then you have a lot of power over that player.
3) Listen carefully to what players say as well as what they don't say. A great many people don't want to lie to you, and so they won't, even when faced with a direct question. People will instead find ways to answer the question with half-truths or by simply dodging the question. Knowing what a player is saying as well as what they're not saying can identify things going on around the board. - : Re: Most pointless opening unit moves by country...
@PE-touche. That tricky English Island gets me every time. I suppose it will simply stand as a pointless move in 1901. The stats remain the same though :) - : Re: Diplomacy Party
Wow, the dynamic of the players was pretty heavy. Have any shown additional interest? Point 'em to the site! - : Re: Vaftrudner's statistics
Granted, while multis are randomly assigned, the effects of having multis in a game can be rather significant. When CD's are rampant, they shape games. Players win with 3 centers, countries have unfair advantages or disadvantages, games that might end in a draw might end in a win instead, or might have unfair two-way draws or other things of that nature.
Simply because a "bias" might be assumed to be evenly distributed doesn't mean that it doesn't shape the data in some significant fashion.
That's the reason I calculate all of my statistics by hand. Sure it takes a while but you get a more true feel for how the nature of the game is.
Also, when dealing with CD's, they shape games far less after the first year if the country is small. The reason is as follows: If a country CD's within the first year, even if someone takes over the country, there are often alliances that have already formed making it more difficult for the fill-in to do as well as if they had started the game out fresh. In addition, it gives countries an unfair advantage early on, especially where neutral centers are concerned.
If a CD occurs after the first year and the country is small (a few centers since the player quits assuming they have no chance left) then its a result of alliances that have already worn down the country and effects will be minimal (the victorious countries will take the centers a bit quicker than normal). However, if the country that CD's is larger, it gives major advantages to their neighbors and often the game ends with the CD'd country having listed as a "resign" with a few centers left. These games skew data heavily if they're not thrown out. - : Re: Most pointless opening unit moves by country...
I'll disagree with anyone that wants to move their English army to Clyde. I've found that there's a large decrease in overall success when English players do *not* convoy the army (or at least successfully enter orders to convoy--they could get bounced in their destination, after all).
When England doesn't convoy the army, there's a decline in draw percentage of over 60% and a small measure of a decrease in wins as well. There's also a huge increase in elimination (over 50%) when the army isn't convoyed. - : Re: Vaftrudner's statistics
@Ora: That's not what I was noting. It's a matter of sample, not the numbers themselves. It's sort of like if you perform a study on vehicle safety looking at Hondas versus Hondas that are less than 5 years old. Either case, your results sum to 100%, but the sample is different.
I'm saying that Vaft's sample contains games that give inaccurate results. For example, games that have multiaccounters tend to have the countries played by multis do better than those that arent if the multi's aren't detected early. If they are and they're banned in the middle of the game, some countries had an unfair disadvantage and got eliminated before the ban while the remaining countries received an unfair advantage after the ban with easy to obtain centers.
I've found that quite a large amount of games have unbalanced results and throw the data off. - : Re: Vaftrudner's statistics
Theres still some major issues with simply using the raw data from the dump. Ive found that over 10% of all games have CDs within the first year, multiaccounters or metagamers, resigns, players winning with fewer than 18 centers, 0 center draws and survivals, and a slew
of other issues that throw the data off from true values.
i suppose the ultimate question is how you deal with these issues to ensure accurate values? - : Re: Italy Attack
Statistically, it's a weaker move than fighting an eastern country, but it's probably because most people don't really know how to do it. There are ways it can be done, but often requires the assistance of England and Germany.
The biggest issue about doing it without tremendous help is that it takes a full year to simply get into position while gaining nothing. Italy needs builds quickly and regular progress if he's to keep up with the rest of the map. The Italian fleet is a year and a half from Marseilles and Spain, the Venice army is a year from Marseilles (and likely won't get in in 1901) while the Rome army is a year and a half from Marseilles and faces a bottle-neck in Piedmont. If France builds a southern fleet in 1902 and you don't have assistance, then you're not getting anywhere. - : Re: Because there are those who complain about a lack of Diplomacy Topics
I've found that there are two types of Diplomacy players when it comes to this sort of thing: there are those that "don't make plans" and those that "make plans".
To identify these groups a little more, I'll lay down some rudimentary guidelines. Those that make plans are the types that immediately come out and spell out ideas. They propose a way forward, they lead and they direct. Those that don't make plans are the ones that sort of "go with the flow"--whatever that flow is. They will always make plans for themselves, but typically don't initiate plans with others. They aren't shy in counter-offers or negotiations, but they simply aren't the ones to break the ice.
Let's assume some scenarios for a moment: Let's take any two individuals that fit into one of the two categories and examine the results.
A) Both don't make plans--When two individuals begin talking and neither of them are plan-makers, topics often revolve around cordialness and they often wait for the board to develop and examine the results. They'll make DMZ requests, talk about things they don't like, but will generally not form a cohesive plan and will primarily do their own thing. Alliances are formed, but opponents are often slower to break down as one person merely requests support thinking of his or her own plan and the other will either agree to give it or state that their unit is busy doing other things. These alliances tend to last quite a bit longer, and even possibly game-long, although there is very little communication between the two.
B) Both make plans--This is sort of like two ranking officers deciding the way forward. Either one will have a stronger say in the matter, and one will have less say in the matter, or there will be quite a bit of disagreements when two people think that their way is better and the one that should be followed. Plans often work, but neither party is completely satisfied and one person will typically be more on edge and there will frequently be tension among the group as each member thinks that the plans aren't going quite as smoothly as they had expected. Alliances are formed, but can quickly deteriorate at the drop of a hat.
C) One makes plans and one doesn't make plans--This type of dynamic is the "preferred" dynamic. One player will lead while the other will follow. Opponents are dissected with the fluency of two players that lead, but both parties are satisfied with the results. These types of dynamics, however, can often lead to the brutal stab of the player that doesn't make plans if they do not carefully examine the situation to check and make sure they're not getting hosed.
I tend to be of the "makes plans" type. I noticed that people will often prefer to work with someone that makes plans over someone that does not make plans. I first start by looking at what I want in any given situation. After I have discovered that, I try to think about what the other player will want and try to offer that thing. This often ends up in the scenarios described in B and C.
Ultimately, I think the goal should be to develop a "B" scenario where one makes plans and the other doesn't necessarily make them but might counter the plans with another set of ideas, but someone among the group needs to be coming up with something. If neither of you are, then it's simply important to change something up by (a) knowing what you want, (b) knowing what the other person wants, and doing what you can to ensure that you both can get what you're after. - : Re: EoG : "Skyfall" gameID=77069
I gotta say, AverageWhiteBoy's EoG pretty much sums up mine.
1901: got screwed immediately when my wife decided to mess around on my diplomacy name (which is partly my fault because I left it open on the computer when I left for work) and she decided to leave retarded posts in random games and click a few things. From there, the self-standoff in Belgium caused everything to go downhill.
HAD THE STANDOFF NOT HAPPENED:
I had a really beautiful plan set up. France was totally sold on the idea that I had his best interests at heart and that I was going to fight Germany with him and all I needed to do was dock my fleet in Brest (original order) from the Channel, and park an army in Belgium via convoy.
I already had both Germany and France leaving Belgium alone for me to move into, and France was convinced that Brest was not a target. From there, I'd have had another army and a fleet coming into play. From there, France would have folded like a sheet of paper.
Anyhow, I had to work with France at that point. I took strong liberties to try to get France and Italy to work together, and it looked like it was going to do fine and I would have the ally I needed to at least push Germany back. If Germany was stalemated and facing strong opposition, I knew he'd turn from me, give me a build someplace and I could then focus on backing Russia off. Instead, however, France decided to take one last pot-shot at Italy. Wrecked the whole plan.
That was the point I pretty much gave up. Congrats to the drawing parties. It was my second defeat playing as England. Sux. - : Re: Very Good Position 2 Replacements Needed
Just out of curiosity, why are you advertising a game you're not in? - : Re: Italian A Tyrolia to Munich has got to be one of the worst early game moves.
+1 SD
I think the A Tyr-Mun is a ridiculous move. Here's a ton of reasons why it's ludacrous
1) Knowing that Austria and Germany are relatively tied together in 1901, you're ticking off one of them right away and wrecking his game, and making the other nervous. This causes France to tend to fight Germany and collapses the western front very quickly. This allows a large France to either work with Austria (who is already nervous at you anyhow) to fight against you, cross the stalemate line early, and maintain a E/F alliance, or to fight England and *then* swing south across the line.
2) The unit has precious little to do there. So you've managed to take Munich and...what? You can't hold it, and you're simply going to be forced out next year by an angry German. As Germany, I'd never be happy with losing a home center to any country. I'd rather have a standoff in Belgium than an Italian army in Munich--after all, Munich is a key point along the French-German stalemate line, and if you're not controlling the units there, then you have no say over whether or not you get invaded by France. Now, when you're forced out, you get bumped into one of several locations:
i) Tyrolia - now you're back where you started from for no real gain
ii) Bohemia - granted, you threaten 2 Austrian centers, but you could have done that last year, and you're simply behind by a full season of where you could be
iii) Silesia - this is the only location that actually gains you progress, but it's against Germany. Now you've dedicated yourself to a German fight but don't have the free range to continue to pump units into the north. The fleets you've been building are useless, and armies take a while to get into the action and can get bottle-necked while you try to fight a war that you have no real business being in in the first place.
The ONLY way that I see that this can work out is if you have France and England making progress against German, but then you'd have to have several key guarantees
i) after Germany is gone, you will be picking a fight with France and have English help and Austrian neutrality (if it's still an option and you don't have to worry about Turkey moving in from the south) or
ii) You're picking a fight with Austria, which means that you need French neutrality so that he will be fighting England.
If one of these has to be in place. If not, then you're probably headed to some rough years.
On a side note, I do agree that Austria and Germany aren't really "allies" in the beginning. More just helpful/neutral at best in most cases. - : Re: NEW GAME
Excellent to you both! That will complete a game. Ill keep pinging the thread to see if interestvis generated for a higher pot game or another one in general.
Therefore the first game is:
SacredDigits
AviF
gobbledydook
tru ninja
sergeant citrus
craig
santosh
ill create the game and send out passwords today or tomorrow - : Re: NEW GAME
Glad to have ya.
SacredDigits
AviF
Gobbledydook
tru ninja
SergeantCitrus
Two more to have game 1 - : Re: NEW GAME
Great!
That makes the tally as:
SacredDigits
AviF
Gobbledyook
tru ninja.
3 more for a first full game. - : Re: NEW GAME
btw, the 25 is only marginally negotiable since this game will be created with the intention of allowing AviF to play since his game didn't get off the ground. It should be a fun little shindig. I could be talked into a second game with a higher pot if this one fills up. - : Re: New Game
Sorry your game didn't take off AviF. I'll try to get one going for ya. - : Re: FtF Cincinnati
I'll have to definitely think about it. I really would like to be there, but finances are tight right now and could be tight until Gen Con. My goal is to definitely make it to Gen Con this year and operate a Diplomacy Tournament someplace next year.
I'll pass word on to Jacob about your tournament and if we can find a way to come, I'll be there, but payment will be closer to the deadline. - : Re: New Game
Its a little too fast-paced for my blood. Im a 2-day phase guy - : Re: Looking for sub
I think youll find it hard for someone to want to take over a position that has one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel. Now if the rest of the board agreed to back off without taking anything and was willing to negotiate, then you might find someone. - : Re: Have you ever made a horrible decision and not realized it until after you've done it?
@MM: I'm not the type to say anything negative about people, and I overlook quite a bit of the back-biting, but at this point, some people's posts are getting out of hand and I'm sick of seeing trash on a site that I have come to call home for nearly four years. It's almost to the point that I don't like clicking on the Forum tab...
To that end, I don't regret this thread, and I hope that others rally together to end the slander and hate that goes on here. - : Re: Have you ever made a horrible decision and not realized it until after you've done it?
@dubmdell: not anywhere on your profile. - : Re: Have you ever made a horrible decision and not realized it until after you've done it?
lol, ya, that's probably the two stupidest things I've done, at least stupid things that had real negative consequences. - : Re: Have you ever made a horrible decision and not realized it until after you've done it?
There once was this guy who used to work on a wood chipper throwing branches into it as it chipped them up into bits. The poor guy's glove got hung on the branch. By the time anyone could get to him, only his feet were left. I could stomach looking at that scene more than I could tolerate seeing (and not even opening) one of Krellin's useless threads.
On a side note, the coroner's report about the guy who got caught in the wood chipper was grusomely comical in that there were a few parts left intact that managed to pass through the machine...one of them was apparently his penis. - : Re: Hey, I turned four yesterday...
Btw, I'll be 4 on this site in about half a year. - : Re: Hey, I turned four yesterday...
I can relate to the shift in the way the game has been played as of late. I used to be able to talk someone into helping me solo so that they could have a survival. Now, people prefer death over a survival. Very strange.
I have noticed some increased skill, but it's more of a baseline shift--more players in that "middle-zone" sort of skill. My GR plummeted recently as well and I'm not even in the top 100! I dropped nearly 100 from 42 to 139 after a streak of losses.
I still don't know how you pulled yourself out of that situation you found yourself in as France in our ABI game. I thought for sure you were going down. I had England and Italy all moving on you (me as Germany) and then they both backed off at the same time. Very impressive and frustrating at the same time. - : Re: Best computergames!
Baldur's Gate is most likely the best I've ever played. Settlers of Catan (board game) on the computer is another good one.
Civilizations is always fun along with Medieval, Total War and Age of Empires. Age of Wonders (older game). - : Re: Peyton Manning in Denver, Tebow leaving?
lol. I used to live just north of Indy and my wife has family in Fishers. - : Re: Peyton Manning in Denver, Tebow leaving?
@ Sacred Digits, my point exactly. We can't boil the game down to who holds rings and who doesn't. Some excellent players (including several members of the '83 draft) don't have rings but were clearly excellent quarterbacks, while others merely had a ton of HoF support to surround them.
Favre was great, but he also had Sterling Sharpe and Reggie White early on who were both HoF players, as well as a ton of pro-bowl caliber talents. Heck, after 1998, Favre didn't do anything really noteworthy.
@ democ, no problem :) - : Re: Leagues?
I was looking forward to League play myself. I had my name in the hat, but nothing came of it. Still interested in playing, though. - : Re: Peyton Manning in Denver, Tebow leaving?
@ democ, it's a bit harder to compare Aaron Rodgers's stats to Brady and the Mannings because he's only started for a few seasons and doesn't have the years under his belt that the others do. He has played really consistently so far and stood out, but so has Drew Brees and I think that Brees is a bit over-rated and suspect that he will fade away as the years go by.
I also have to +1 Peyton over Eli. As a QB, Peyton is much more solid in the pocket, can read a defense far better, has much more command over his team as a coach on the field while Eli struggles in those areas and has the coach calling more of the shots. His on-field performances turn out better and the overall end result is a stronger QB. Eli has always been the popular underdog. Good, but I wouldn't say he's HoF material. Sure, Super Bowl rings account for a lot in that factor, but I don't think Eli should have been MVP in the last year's Super Bowl, either. I think his wide receivers did better than he did. It's just a popular decision to typically pick a QB for the spot.
In terms of Tebow, I do think he has much better character in the NFL than most other big-name people, but as a QB, he's really lacking heavily in the passing game, which is a must-have in the NFL today. Running the ball by a QB is a good capability to have, heck Elway scrambled all the time, but it was only when he had no passing options and he showed that he could make the completions necessary to keep the drive going. Tebow doesn't have that. He's like Vick in that he gets nervous in the pocket and feels like he has to hang onto the ball, but even Vick could throw. - : Re: Peyton Manning in Denver, Tebow leaving?
It's sorta bitter-sweet. I liked Tebow (and not simply because I came from the college days Tebow-bandwagon). He brought something different to our offense in the run-game, even if he did remove us from the passing game quite a bit. He impressed me by turning us from a pass-heavy, do-nothing offense under Orton to a run-heavy/unpredictable offense that turned out some additional wins even if it was in a not-so-tough schedule of 2011. It was the first time we'd seen a post-season in years.
Now that Tebow is on the trade block and Manning has finalized his decision to come to Denver, I wonder what will happen. I mean, the guy has a very Elway-like record behind him and is a very commanding leader behind center, but I wonder if our offense will be able to adapt to his style of play and control. Plus the fact that he came off an injury that kept him from playing last season and is possibly prone to having something happen again.
In addition to all this, Peyton can't possibly hang out with Denver for another 10 years and he's once again, another short-term solution to the gaping problems we've been suffering from on our offense. Dunno. - : Re: How did you pick your username?
I rolled some Boggle dice and this is what it spelled. - : Re: Good tactics, or bad sportsmanship?
well if you don't have a shot clock in a game, and if it's legal, then go for it. - : Re: Looking for a replacement England
a pretty suicidal one at that. - : Re: What other games do you enjoy?
btw, if anyone has a copy of the Game of Thrones, I'd love it if someone looked up the playtesters to see if my name was actually in there. - : Re: What other games do you enjoy?
I play Settlers of Catan online at catan.com. My screen name is ninjaj. Anyone interested in playing me sometime can look me up.
I also play-tested The Game of Thrones (called A Song of Fire and Ice--dunno if it's what's on the shelf or not, but the designers told me that my name would be in the back of the rulebook). - : Re: Tru Ninja - where are you?
Yeah. Its spring break this week so ive been busy with fam and work. Barely made some deadlines... - : Re: Magic: The Gathering
Ive done the infinite combos with ornithopters, ashnods altars and enduring renewals before. It took a lot more to get that deck going. It was sortal like my aluren/recycle/elves/dark sphere/hurricane combo. Fun but slower.
Ya i could buy my cards back but the cost has increased 10-fold or more on my 20k card collection. Too much to try at this point. Now i play with my buddies decks. Not as fun using newer cards, but enjoyable.
I do play Dual of the Planeswalkers (dos game) still on my flash drive. - : Re: GUYS WHY HAVE WE NOT INVADED THE DIPLOMACY REDDIT YET
@bolshi id be careful in simply stating that simply a 3% difference implies no statistical significance. In fact, smaller numbers can have statistical significance if theyre even 1% apart. In fact, id be willing to bet that the 3% shown here is a significant difference. - : Re: Magic: The Gathering
I owned a timewalk, timetwister, all moxes 5 of each dual land and a plethora of cards now valued at over $200. I sold my collection years ago and its the biggest regret i have to this day. - : Re: Magic: The Gathering
I played for a really long time. I had a better collection than anyone i knew. All the decks i used to build were lockdown decks with no creatures (none used for attacking like birds of paradise).
The premise was that once my combo hit the table, all you could do was sit there and die.
They included decks like necropotence/lands edge + 60% mana; stasis, kismet, birds and instill, chains of mephistopholes/ anvil of bogardan, and the like that often caused you to lose draw phases, untap phases, etc. i designed them to kill in about 5 rounds. - : Re: MadHouse's invitational
I might join if I can end the two games I'm in first. I'd like to get down to just one game. - : Re: Game of the Century.
@jwalters: been a while since I've seen you on this site. How's Jonathan? - : Re: Obama 2012
I gotta say that none of the presidential candidates seem worth it. The truth is, unfortunately, that they're all wrapped up in the pockets of lobbyists. - : Re: Statistical Study
thnx, DILK, I'll look at it and make a change. - : Re: For the math savvy on the site
@Mr A, yes, you can solve the problem with equally sized subsets however, you're limited to the number of subsets. For example, with 8-element sets or higher, you can have exactly 1 subset that satisfies the condition that any two subsets have exactly one element in common.
In fact, all subsets must have the same number of elements if there are any subsets with n > 2 elements. The only time you can have subsets of varying sizes is if you have as you posted earlier with {1}, {1, 2}, ... , {1, 13}.
@ Mittag: I like where you started with your proof. I'm going to continue the logic and see where I get.
@ uclabb, not sure where you're going with your most recent post, but I agree with the 4-element subsets (with missing commas) as a good example. - : Re: For the math savvy on the site
Nope, I'm still working on my undergrad :( This is homework for my discrete math class. I can tell you all that the answer cannot be greater than the number of elements in A, so 78 is out.
78 is the answer if you have 13 choose 2 to determine the number of subsets of A such that no subset is a subset of another one.
There are 2^13 subset possibilities.
Mr A is correct that there are 13 subsets, but that's not a proof to the question. It's simply one answer that happens to be correct. If I were to say that all of the subsets had the same number of elements, how would you answer? (The answer is still 13). - : Re: Statistical Study
lol, well if you want a copy of the statistical report, (I'm in the process of updating it and adding additional stats), then you can email me at joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu - : Re: To PhD or not to PhD.
I plan on getting my Edu doctorate after I obtain my masters degree (it's the PhD equivalent for education). Since I'm going to be a teacher, it will pay dividends on down the road.
--A teaching certificate allows me to teach in grade schools or tech schools
--A master's degree increases my pay and gives me the opportunity to teach in colleges and universities (most universities allow Masters degree holding individuals to teach 100 and 200 level courses)
--A doctorate degree in education would increase my pay more and grant me the opportunity to teach any undergraduate course in a university as well as graduate courses. - : Re: H. Kissinger's Allies-2: Classic, full-press, 1.5 day phases
RULE 7
If you can't memorize the rulebook list of abbreviations, have never played in a strict FtF game where additional abbreviations have developed as official rules over time, all of RH's rules and the colors of the flags of all 7 countries involved in this game, write everything down, refer to this list, phone a friend or send a self-addressed stamped envelope (hereforto referred to as SASE) to 120 Riverwood Ave, Bowling Green, Kentucky 42103 by the start of the game for an "official" copy of this thread on 20 lb. white stock. All requests for thread copies must be submitted on or before the start of the spring 1901 phase of said game.
:) - : Re: So I drowned my car in a lake...
PE - Not sure what you're doing to have that kind of track record, but I'm guessing it's time for a change.
Anyhow, I'll share a story. When I was in my early twenties, I was hanging out with some friends playing dnd at one of their apartments in the ghetto. There were other people there that weren't playing (ones I didn't know) and some psycho chick got irritated at something I said (not sure what) and she started getting mouthy. I jokingly told her that she didn't know who I was and that I was essentially a ninja warrior. She pulled a knife out on me and directed my attention to the fridge where she posted a note bragging about how she was an accomplice to a murder (in reality, she was just haning out with the guy who did the real work and did none of it herself). I told her to shut up, she kept getting mouthy and we all left. - : Re: A
The reason I liked yours so much is that Turkey is never in both English centers via travel around Iberia with fleets and in Scandinavia via travel through Russia by the end of the game. I'm sure France not moving and it not being a WTA influenced that a bit, but sometimes in WTA games, you still have the one guy that doesn't care if he survives with 10 centers or participates in a draw simply because he doesn't like someone else with 4 centers. - : Re: A
D33 wins this one. If Germany hadn't dropped out of your game, PE, then it would have been the best. Turkey almost always takes all eastern centers plus one western (often Marseilles or Spain). - : Re: hi guise im new here how do i points???
+1 PE. lol, not only is your original thread funny, but the reference to a d33 was priceless. My wife was talking to me trying to say something funny but I wasn't paying attention because I was reading this hilarious thread. When I laughed, she thought SHE was the one that said something funny and she laughed too. I didn't break the news to her that it wasn't her.
Not to hijack the thread, but what edition do you play? - : Re: A
@2WL: I like seeing that as well. I like the idea of a trend, but breaking the trend is also nice to see. It begs the question as to how the game unfurled to get them in such a strange spot.
So far we have 3 submissions. Let's bring on more. - : Re: A
Ive been studying wta games but for the sake of the contest ill open up both forms - : Re: A
Hmm, not sure why the title changed when I posted this... - : Re: A
DO NOT include games where people quit, failed to submit moves through the end (it doesn't matter if the another player was helping you solo legitimately, so long as he continued to play to the end), CD'd or had a player banned for multi-accounting. - : Re: School of War Winter Game 1
I know during my game, I didn't have the opportunity to comment on questions from the field, so here's one for you guys. I've been following the game loosely for a little bit and my question to the profs is this:
Who is currently in the best position on the map, and why?
Among those in the "driver's seat", who do you feel is in the worst spot on the map, and why? (essentially barring Austria and Russia). - : Re: Change Your Password Day
Well I can agree with 2ndWhiteLion on this one. I've had thieves break into my webdip account, steal my credit card information, and pay the salary of the Al Qaeda weapons technician for a whole year while he developed a nuclear warhead. It's a good thing that the U.S. army caught and killed these guys before more damage was done. I've found that it's best to change my password every time I log on, because you never know who's interested in your webdip password. - : Re: Introductory strategy articles
A great intro work is a book by Richard Sharp called The Game of Diplomacy. Its on the web free to download written in the 70's. I advise checking it out. - : Re: gameID=3
The game, in it's early development, probably didn't have an adjudicator tied into the system and things were manually controlled far more than they are now.
I'm sure initially, England, Germany and Italy went into CD ,and later Italy rejoined the game while Austria quit. The game clearly never had more than 4 players playing at any given time and the 17 sc wins came from the fact that the original coding counted center control before incrementing the center-count. Thus, if France had enough units in non-French centers to bring the total French center count to 18, he was declared the winner. If not, the game would increment the number of French centers, subtract the number of units on the map and award builds for the upcoming season. It all depends on what order the program is executing code.
My final guess is that the number of diplomacy points "won" is merely the running total of how many points the player had at the game's conclusion. - : Re: The Ideal Turkey
@cteno: i hadnt seen the schitzo opening played effectively (as you call it) until recently when i checked a profile on someone to check thir reliability to DMZ the BLA and the opening was played more successfully than id seen traditional openings played bar-none. Its something i intend to try given the right opportunity and its nice to hear someone state that they had success with it as well.
Until recently i had chalked up any opening outside the standard one as useless. Well put. - : Re: The Ideal Turkey
Grr, darn reply button. I was going to ask you to clarify those statements lando.
btw im a big SW buff myself. have you ever played the role-playing game (not video game). - : Re: The Ideal Turkey
Over and above the juggernaut, eh? It seems the general austrian game would tend to side with russia over the turk. After all, any AT alliance where one person desires the win would have to end in war. After russia is defeated, it makes it hard for turkey to move on germany due to distance, and straining to sail past austria into italy and france, even in draw situations uenless the turk is content with 8 units. - : Re: The Ideal Turkey
Well, if I were to vote on the ones that sounded like competent answers I'd have to +1 Yellowjacket on this one. It doesn't seem flawless but it does seem well-etched and good timing on some things. Turkey is one of the last guys to cross the stalemate line and he does so by taking the east plus one (often Marseilles or Spain).
The area that I struggle with in Turkey is that I often get rushed by 3 powers in 1901. I like the idea of a Juggernaut on paper, but often it doesn't pan out leaving me with 3 centers and dwindling.
What sorts of things do you all see Turkey talking about to their neighbors early on? - : Re: The Ideal Turkey
Often, these ideal situations don't arise, but 1901 is often influenced by what people see as the 'ideal' situation. As a player who sucks at playing Turkey, I'm curious as to how you see the "Ideal Turkey" being played out. What does the first year look like? What about the midgame? Who are your goal-allies and goal targets in 1901 if you could pick the map?
I prefer to see realistic answers assuming that all players are as competent as you and not merely "Turkey gets 3 builds in 1901 as Russia moves Moscow to St Pete, Warsaw to Lvn and the Sevastopol fleet supports me into Rumania in F01 from the Black Sea". - : Re: Protip: look closely if a game is WTA
Well, I can +1 Thucy on this one. I've played several games recently where players support the winner over any logic you could propose to them. I think it simply stems from the fact that some players don't have the ability to see the bigger picture. It might be lack of playing experience or poor logic or even amazing diplomacy by the aggressor, but in any sense, it's frustrating when you have it happen to you. - : Re: Diplomacy Comments
Theres a lot that i disagree with in your notes although i do agree that you need to have an idea of what you want to see happen and try to make it work.
One of the biggest things that i disagree with is the disbanding of the english fleet. England needs armies if its going to get to 18 and it needs them early. If ypu find yourself the target of a FG, the worst thing you can do is have only fleets because they heavily lack in defensive power and 1901 is all about setting momentum and determining whos trustworthy and whos the liar. In addition to this if england is going to make it to 18, it almost always does so by taking the western 17 and a russian center (mos or war) and less frequently tunis. This calls for more armies instead of fleets.
Next, if italy is going to make it to 18, it has to cross the med and the sooner the better. This means that italy can attack austria if he knows that the turk is going to fight russia after A's demise. I do agree that most games, italy needs to focus in the east but moving to pie in s01 isnt a bad idea, necessarily.
The biggest issue i have is that your goal is so rigid. It doesnt cover things like if in 1901 france was telling you the truth and building for an alliance wbile germany secretly has it in for you. Your method essentially burns the french bridge before you can find out what everyone is plying for.
I strongly believe that most everyone determines who theyre going to attack by the end of 1901 and the person who is genuinely seeking an alliance with you isnt always the one you think it is. In addition, the guy who means to attack you might be the one you think is trying to work with you and if you choose wrong in these circumstances, it can mean game over for you. - : Re: New Italy Required
Glad you caught that :) - : Re: New Italy Required
Most desirable indeed. - : Re: woka
I agree with the first sentence. The second one sounds a little too "Draugnar" for me. - : Re: woka
omg. My wife got onto my account when I left it open on the computer and posted this in the forum and in global chat in several of my games. I'm a bit surprised that it generated as much interest as it has.
+1 to Alderian, though. That was pretty funny. - : Re: Who's the biggest troll?
Well, technically I muted King Adam, but that was only the multi created by someone else to make fun of KA who I don't really have a problem with. - : Re: Who's the biggest troll?
@Hellalt: At first I thought you'd have been there, but lately you've been quiet. You were my favorite troll of all time. I never had a problem with your forum trolling and even saw it as your rightful place to troll, but lately you've been rather polite, and uncharacteristically clean-mouthed. Congrats, I guess.
As far as the rest of the grouping, I can pretty much only +1 the only guy I ever muted, and that's Krellin. - : Re: This got me thinking....
Not sure if this has been brought up, but keep in mind that they married in the early twentieth century. Marrying a 13-year old in the US would have been far less of an eyebrow raiser, especially in light of WWI having consumed the lives of many americans. - : Re: Invitational game for MM, Babak, Lando, goldfinger, Tru Ninja, Cachimbo and abgemacht
Im down - : Re: Teaching a group of high school students
Actually, France was the one that got punched in the end. He was actually trying to work with England, believe it or not. Italy had no real business in the MAO and an experienced Austrian would have eagerly walked into Italian soil.
I did receive verbatim copy-pastes from Scipio, but it only marginally helped. A lot of the game is played by feel and it felt like France didn't have much of a chance in that game.
I sent him some closing comments which I hope he really learns from. I think they'll help his game if he does some self-analysis. - : Re: Desire to start a new game
Game 2 is up and running. I've sent everyone the link and password. You all have up to a week to join the game. Empty slots by next Wednesday (the 4th) will be filled. This will give everyone up to a week to clear their schedules enough to join and bypasses the holidays. Hope to see you all in the game! - : Re: Alliances
Could be a E or F solo, though. - : Re: Rail Baron
+1 to catan and rail baron although I wasnt a huge fan of asobrain. S3dconnector.net was way better in its prime. I play at catan.com now. Im gonna download the settlers app for my phone.
+10 to jacob checkin his pm's. - : Re: Desire to start a new game
Sounds fine. I can delay the start until after xmas and pause late jan. - : Re: Desire to start a new game
Will do one more to go - : Re: Desire to start a new game
will do santosh. Two more - : Re: Desire to start a new game
bump for 3 more. - : Re: High replacement bets
The first game I played on this site was to take over a country. Anytime I do that, I often go through the games and select the country I believe has the best chance to turn things around. - : Re: Desire to start a new game
Gotcha down ghug.
Game 2:
-------------------
Tru Ninja
Yonni
Leif Syverson
ghug - : Re: The best diplomacy messages
The best message I ever received was:
"WTF you dick face!" - : Re: Desire to start a new game
4 more and I can start a game 2 - : Re: Desire to start a new game
Game 2: WTA, non anon, 2-day phases, whatever pot we can get.
-----------------
Tru Ninja
Yonni
Leif Syverson - : Re: MadMarx ABI-36 EoG's
I'll post mine, as short as it will be:
I was disappointed in this game. 1901 went really well. I had an English ally and Italian ally going up against the French, who believed me to be an ally. I got into Burgundy on the sly and it seemed like you (MM) bought what I was selling and I was golden.
Builds went through, and in S02, things fell apart. I'm not entirely sure what you said to Italy and England because they completely backed off. I thought it was probably the biggest mistake Italy made of the game. No offense, Santosh, but it certainly turned the tide of the game for the both of us. You had temporary momentum through 1903 but then lost everything starting 04 because you switched your focus from a French campaign to an Austrian one after the Russian and Turk were working heavily together.
I made a few mistakes and should have focused my attention on continuing to attack France instead of defending against England, but I think that stemmed from being in too many games at one time while in school. In F03, I should have supported Ruhr into Burgundy instead of back-tracking to salvage something. After France got into Ruhr, I knew it was over.
I was also irritated that Russia chose to not do anything in the north. I offered him to fight England, but he regularly refused the offer. Instead, he snagged Berlin temporarily and then England and Turkey ate him alive.
After 1903, I pretty much stopped caring when no one would face off against the E/F. This game was the capstone of a series of bad games for me which were all going on at the same time. Meh, can't win em all. I look forward to playing again. Congrats to everyone who participated in the draw. - : Re: Desire to start a new game
It looks like 101 it is, then. Yonni, I can either start a second game with a lower pot if we can get 5 more players or you can wait. I'd like to play a game with you, so I can try to see what we can do.
Game 1: WTA, 101 pot, 2-day phases, non-anon
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tru Ninja
Gobbledydook
Spell of Wheels
Haert
Friendly Sword
Manas
qtlp
I'll set the game up and PM the password.
Game 2: WTA, 50 pot(?), non anon(?), 2-day phases
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tru Ninja
Yonni - : Re: Desire to start a new game
@Haert: I'd do PPSC but it doesn't help GR the same way. Plus, players are willing to give away a solo to someone for a "second-place" survival of 10 centers because of the Dip points.
I can put you down as a maybe if you'd like.
I have 5-6 now:
Tru Ninja
qtlp
Yonni
Manas
Haert (maybe)
Friendly Sword
I'll set it up as whatever Yonni can get in at unless you can't get to at least 100. 150 otherwise. - : Re: Desire to start a new game
Bump--still looking for 3 more. - : Re: EOG - SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I'm a bit irked about scmoo not posting his EOG's. I'd have liked to have seen his thoughts. I like the dialog going on. What about the TA's? Any thoughts from them? - : Re: Desire to start a new game
So far its:
Tru Ninja
qtlp - 100-150 pot
Yonni - non anon
Manas - anon (pref)
3 more and I'll set up a game. - : Re: Webdipmods
+1 Draug
I'm not complaining about the mods. They certainly got to my game when they could. It just happened to be a bit late. I was also 99.9% sure there was a cheat and I posted some very clear reasons why. I just hate knowing that the game is going to scar my record for life. - : Re: Desire to start a new game
No problem. I'll put ya down. That makes 2. - : Re: Webdipmods
I kinda agree with rokakoma. I can't see what sort of problem would arise from cancelling games with multis. It ruins ghost-ratings, removes diplomacy points which you can never get back, and makes people a lot more angry about things than they need to be.
I had a game where I was eliminated by multis. Thankfully, the mods did detect it and they were eliminated, but it took about 3 weeks. Had the two been eliminated within the first week or so, I'd have participated in the draw of the endgame instead of being eliminated, but at least they didn't win either. - : Re: EOG - SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Wow, Yonni, I really appreciated the EOG. Very introspective. I think that if you continue to do self-analysis like that in future games, it will really help your game play and diplomacy continue to mature. - : Re: EOG - SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Well put. You're a really great manipulator, and I applaud that. - : Re: EOG - SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I don't mind. I knew my thoughts would be analyzed if I put them out there. I hope to play some of you in future games as well. - : Re: EOG - SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I appreciate it Cachimbo. - : Re: EOG - SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Alright, here we go: SoW Game 2 EOG's:
For the following End of Games, I'd like to take some time and analyze people's games and try to state where I believe were some general good points and some areas of mistake. There were points of both for all players in the game and regardless of how it ended, I hope you all took something away from this experience, especially that it doesn't matter how your present situation seems, it can always change. I'd also like to say thank you to all of you who made it possible, both the players and TA's and goldfinger for taking time to organize it. I'm glad I had the opportunity to be a professor, for better or worse. Without further ado, here are my final thoughts in alphabetical order by country:
Austria (acmac10):
You had a really rough ride almost out of the gate. I was as surprised as you were to have Italy Lepanto in S01 and then storm Trieste for what could have been a fortunate guess. It looked like you were going to have 3 people taking you out by F02 but you hung in there and actually made brief progress. S04 threw me off quite a bit with a bizairre move: A Gal-Sil with A Rum doing precious nothing. It seemed evident to me that Italy was going to fight you and as long as he had an army in Tyr, you'd have been better off staying close to home. This move, to me, was the beginning of the end. I think had you returned a unit to Vienna, you'd have been able to possibly retake Tri and possibly Bul. I'm curious about the press going around that made that option a reasonably sound one. It seemed like you had a decent ally in Russia but units stationed in Sil and Gal seem to have burned that. From there, the map saw 3 countries united to divide your soil. Afterward, it looked like you got desperate for survival and tried to strike out against anyone in order to have at least 1 unit on the map for 1906. I had initially predicted that you would be one of the members in the end game because your TA's stats for Austria were really strong. If you post to your EOG's, I'd be curious to know what was happening around 1903 that made you switch gears so much after that. It looked like you had a really clear course between 02 and 03. Your biggest success was the rebound you had starting off a not-so-successful year. Your biggest downfall was the move to Silesia. It's considered German/Russian and it's not often a place for a stray Austrian early on. I don't really have any advice I'd like to give, because I think that you were dealt a rough hand which left you in the dust.
====================================================================
England (BenGuin):
Going into F01 looked really great for you. It was almost picture-perfect. Russia with only 1 unit in the north, a German/French bounce in Burgundy (probably arranged), France moving a fleet to the MAO, life was grand. Then came the convoy to Denmark. It was nice to see 2 builds but the builds didn't necessarily stack up to where you were positioned. Your army meant that you were gunning for Germany but the builds said you were moving on France. I think one of your 01 builds should have been an army. With F and G hot on your tail, an army on the Island early on would have prevented some of your losses. Some of it was also that you were dealt a raw hand since Russia joined in on the foray starting S02. Part of me would have cut my losses and attempted to stalemate someone and with all the French fleets in the water, I'd have started there. If you can stalemate an enemy, apply some diplomatic savvy, it often translates into someone rebounding on a new target. At that point, you were systematically reduced down to 1 center by the end of 1904 but still had a unit hanging around being a pain in the neck for another 4 years. I wish you'd have capitalized on that a bit more instead of logging on to submit a hold order. It looked like Russia would have used you for a bit longer. Your biggest success was the 2 build 01 year while your biggest downfall was the double-fleet build. My advice, if you even log on and read this, is don't give up. You gave up way too early when you were still a benefit to someone around you.
====================================================================
France (Scmoo472)
To begin, 1901-04 went beautifully--nay--picture-perfect, for any French player having 2 builds in 1901. By 04, you had dominated England, had a solid alliance with Germany, and were poised to strike Italy with a precision dismantling. Heck, in S05, you even had your foot in Tunis, even if you weren't going to keep it. Then came the fall of 1905. If I remember correctly, it was just prior to the 05 season that your original TA left and you were by yourself. I had been predicting a German or French stab of the other for quite some time because it's awfully dangerous to leave that much space open along a mutual border, and in the end, it bit you in the rear. The German stab was a particularly brutal one having your new enemy go +2 centers and you -1. This is the stuff stabs are made of. Somehow, over the course of the next 3 years, you survived the onslaught and by 1908, you were back in the saddle. Fortunately, Germany made a second enemy in Russia, and biting off more than he could chew, was unable to focus on the direct attack on your land which turned in your favor far more than Russia's. The return to glory was almost as beautiful as your beginning. I'm more apt to say that your initial game was better than the latter part, but that's what happens when things go as they did in 05. Your biggest success was by far the turn-around in 1908 to turn the tables on Germany. Your biggest failure was the vacating so many units along the F/G borders, especially while Germany still had an army on the English Island. I believe that if you'd have waited to move away from your centers until after Germany vacated the Island, then you'd have had a serious chance to solo. My advice to you is to try to not leave yourself vulnerable. Always assume that if someone can stab you, then they will.
====================================================================
Germany (Pepijn)
Things in this game looked really good for you longer than they did any other player. Your game was smooth for the first 6 and a half years. The stab of France went nicely and you were on your way to taking him apart. The problems started in the fall of 1907 when you issued the moves A Mun-Sil and A Ber-Pru. The counterstrike at Russia didn't pay off. Russia was already moving south back to fight the Italian, but when you double-moved against him, it ensured a R/F for a long time to come that, in the end, cost you more than you bargained for. Had the Italian not gone into CD, then you'd have been eliminated as a result of taking on too much at one time. My idea is that if you count the number of units of France (your primary enemy) and add to it the number of units that Russia has, you need more units than their combined forces in order to pull off the Russia stab (either that or a Turkish ally). The idea is that in any given situation, you can never dedicate 100% of your units to an offensive, but the defender can and will devote 100% if he's able to. The reason you can't have 100% attacking is that you've always got units coming into play which could be a year out from the fight, you've got units in transition to the battle areas, you have to often use a tactical support hold to prevent the enemy from gaining on you, and many times, you have to leave units somewhere else to peacekeep a mutual border to another player (like you had in Scandinavia with Russia prior to that conflict). EM started the French fight, and by your own admission, it was one you'd have engaged in anyhow, but to move on Russia after he's backed off was the mistake. You pretty much held your own up to 1908 but between 08 and 1913, there were little gray/brown explosions on the map from disbands in many of the seasons as you continued to lose ground to the flood. The Italian CD in 1912 helped a bit, and when it finally came to light that Turkey was moving to solo, this forced the map to review things in the west and organize a sort of Western Triple to stalemate Turkey as much as they could. I have to congratulate you that over the course of the next 3 full years, you set yourself into a position to be needed where Russia was expendable and in the end pulled off the dramatic end-game draw. Your greatest success was everything up until the Russian duel, especially the French stab. I'm curious to know how you'd have approached the stab differently had it been you doing the stabbing instead of EM. Would you have moved Belgium in F05 or left it where it was? Your biggest failure was attacking Russia. I believe that, had that not happened, you would have had the chance to solo, especially if you were able to talk Italy onboard for the French conflict. I can't say that entirely because you still had a stalemate line to cross at some point, but it could have been you at 16 or 17 centers and not Turkey. Heck, the game might have 2-wayed. My advice is to really think twice about taking on a new enemy.
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Italy (BenGuin)
1901: I love the assault on Austria. Many people don't take the opportunity to do it when they can, and oftentimes when they do take it, they find a R/T in the mix. Your timing was really good because Russia taking on Turkey was vital to ensuring there was no Juggernaut. It goes back to my belief that the best conflicts Italy can engage in is a 2v2 conflict, even if you technically weren't working with Turkey. I believe there has to be 2 wars going on in the east for Italy to make adequate ground. The thing that worried me was in 1903, England was essentially defeated and you had no build that year. Your fleet had no business moving to the Eastern Med that year, and your army was useless sitting on Tunis. Had you gotten it onto the boot in 1902, the French stab would have been less effective and you could have rised trying for Vienna instead of wasting your time supporting a hold on Trieste with the Tyrolia army. Had you instead gotten your Tunis army to Albania and received a build that year, then the French movement into Piedmont wouldn't have been as unbearable. That part was your fault. The following, I can't chalk up to you mostly. The F/G forced east to bind together and confront the new power and you felt obligated to trust that the R/T wouldn't move on your centers as you retreated to hit France. The German stab did way more harm to you than it did to Germany because you were caught with your pants down. Where 1904 was amazing, 1906 was as equally devastating. The part that was your fault in the stab was not reading the board. I saw Turkey simply sailing his ships lazily about the Eastern waters. A05 looked fine. I'd have considered DMZing centers along our mutual border and Turkey seemed compliant, but it begs the question: If Turkey can't help in the fight, then what's he doing? This sort of "dead weight" has to be turned into viable units capable of holding the stalemate line. This comes in one of two ways: either allow him to move north into the non-center zones, or eliminate him and use his centers to build Italian and Russian units. I have to congratulate you in slowing the R/T to almost a halt over the course of the next 5 years. Sure you lost ground, but it was slow in going. Then in 1912, you simply gave up. Not sure why, but it was even worse than what England did in the north with his lone unit. If you've got units, then you're useful. Others may not think so, but give them the opportunity. I've played in games where I was both a 1 unit Janissary and merely dead weight. You never really know how your opponent will view you unless you make yourself available. Your greatest success was the assault on Austria, your biggest failure was definitely the CD, but barring that, it was keeping the army locked in Tunis for way too long. My advice is the same as England: don't give up. CD's ruin games, both for you and for the others that play them.
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Russia (Yonni)
Your opening was a rather shaky one, and certainly one I don't do under ordinary circumstances. Of all Russian openings, moving Mos-Sev is not one I consider. The problem is that it leaves the Black Sea uncontested. Frankly, you're lucky Cachimbo didn't open Smy-Arm. If he had, then you'd be kissing your butt good-bye. There is an upside to the opening, though, and it's that it's better than the more-oft seen A Mos-Sev, F Sev-BLA. This move not only fails more times than it's worth, the opening move even means that the only unit you get to move in 1901 is St Pete, and that move is an obvious one. Ukraine is, in my opinion, the strongest choice for southern-bound Moscow armies. That aside, 1901 went as well as any Russian could expect and you were out of the gate with promise. Over the next few years, your assault on Turkey went really well, but the north was left unfortunately vacant. This, coupled with Tall-Poppy Syndrome, was what led to your eventual downfall. In F02, I'd have moved St Pete to Nwy and supported with Swe. This would have given you the power to build a much-needed fleet in StP nc. Through 1904, you were reduced to a commoner again and no longer the king, but had thankfully ironed out your differences with several nations. 1906, was the year of the fail for you. The Italian stab left you with a mouthfull of Italian hind end, but greed caused you to try to bury the fork deeper only to lose the center that you were sure to gain. The next 2 years seemed almost unbearably miserable as you tried season after season to get a leg up on Italy but to no end. On top of that, the bouncing around for and against Germany left you virtually ally-less. From there, it was all downhill from there. Your game was really strong for a while, and I always recommend being the top dog in any fight, regardless of center differences, and your biggest success came early when you capitalized on the strength and speed of Russian units when they're unleashed. You had Turkey by the balls and it was amazing. Your biggest failure, however, is that I get the feeling that you regularly put a ton of stock into my commentary. It seemed that at various points in the game, many people were ordering their units based on what I said in my commentary (not everyone, but most), but you more than the rest. This made you predictable and in the end, it seemed to alienate you from almost everyone on the map at one point. My advice is to try to keep as many allies as you can. Focus on 1 enemy unless your situation can honestly warrant two.
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Turkey (Cachimbo)
Wow is all I can really say. In 1901, the CD hurt terribly. You lost ground with Austria, and especially Russia and in 1902 you selected the wrong ally and moved on Austria while Russia slipped in the back door through Armenia and began tearing you apart. At the end of 1902, you had to have been on high panic and it looked like you were going to be the first one out the door, but when Russia got stabbed, he was forced to make you a new ally, back off the fight and in 1904 you were back in the mix. Where 1904 took care of Russia, 1905/06 was what took care of Italy. I knew the instant I saw you shuffling your fleets in the waters that it was a shark about to attack. In 1906, the attack came as it coincided with the German stab of France. Opportunity after opportunity continued to open the door for you to stick around and even thrive. Through 1911, you and Russia were literally the new F/G of the map. As it was, continual vacancies by Russia along your mutual border gave you yet another opportunity to stab. 1912, Italy went into CD and allowed you to turn a good portion of your forces toward the face of Russia. Through 1912 and 1913, you took your time moving to cross the stalemate line and this is the point that I think you gave yourself the draw. I've done this in too many games where I let opportunity pass me by and instead of soloing, I settle for a draw. In the first Masters Tournament, playing as Germany and had Hellalt (Austria) so angry at Spell of Wheels (Turkey) that he was going to give me the solo. I had the season to win and all I needed to do was stab Austria, but I chose to keep my promise to give him the survival and Turkey was able to talk Austria into calming down and forcing the draw. Probably my worst moment in my Diplomacy history. Opportunities like that come once a game, and if you fail to take hold of them, then it means the difference between Win and Draw, Draw and Survive or Survive and Lose. For you, your greatest success was turning things around at almost every opportunity to get yourself back into the game from a losing position. Your greatest failure was not crossing the stalemate line when you could. It might have happened that you could have waited to stab Russia for another year to put France at ease a little more, or bypassing Italian centers temporarily to squeeze a Turkish fleet into the MAO. After you can get into the MAO with at least one unit, especially a fleet, then you have the freedom to do a lot of damage. Without that advantage, then you find yourself sitting on your hands.
To close, I'd like to thank everyone who participated in this game, it was a really great experience for me which I will undoubtedly do again in a future time. Thanks to goldfinger for putting it together and everyone for following through, and even to PE and EM for subbing where needed. - : Re: EOG - SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
@Pepjin: From 1904 to 1908, what would you have done differentlly? Would you have remained loyal to France or stabbed him like EM? - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Let's keep things civil. Remember that this is a game, and even if you choose never to play with someone again, it's still a game. I'll post a forum for EOG's soon if one isn't already up by the time I get to it. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I will post some remarks since there were some things I wasn't expecting.
The first is that I need to congratulate the west on eliminating Russia from the equation. No offense to Russia, but I'd have done the same thing. You were the low man on the pole preventing the game from consolidating to a 3-way draw and your units could easily be replaced. There's also no need to hold the 19-15 stalemate line that includes Moscow and Warsaw. It worked out well so that Russia can't throw the game for Turkey. I wasn't expecting to see this, but I was curious if it would happen.
Kudos to the 3-way draw, my EOG's are almost complete with information for every country as a whole. - : Re: WACcon 2012: Seattle
Too far for me. I'd love to get the chance to play against some of the greats, but until things settle down for me, I'll wind up sticking to Gen Con or someplace close. - : Re: MVP of the NFL
Tim Tebow did definitely turn things around. If it were his rookie season, I'd give him rookie of the year, but even as a huge Broncos fan, I don't think I can give the guy MVP. Manning either. You have to prove yourself for the current year. He won some MVP's in the prior years but not doing squat shouldn't earn you one of the most honored titles in pro football. - : Re: Cheating
Punch the second guy in the groin. - : Re: Riddles
Here's one:
What starts with 'T' and ends in 'ru Ninja'? - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Because of a really well played idea by the west :)
Wonder how the next season will look. - : Re: Is it too underhanded?
Well, for the record, I think that supporting hold Brest for money is more of an issue with prostitution. - : Re: Is it too underhanded?
I agree with Draugnar on this one. There's no honor in war and there's no honor here. The only really honorable thing I'll do is draw a game when a country CD's if it gives one player a huge advantage. Other than that, everything goes, pretty much. - : Re: Switzerland Variant
It changes the fact that there's no longer a stalemate line running the length of the board which is huge. - : Re: Is it too underhanded?
Hypothetically speaking, what's the lowest dollar? - : Re: Is it too underhanded?
For example, do you consider it wrong to:
--email players outside of the game?
--discuss the game with someone personally?
--logging on under someone's name and reading the messages of someone you're in a game with?
--talking to someone with a higher rating to get their opinion on what to do in a game you're playing?
--buying someone off?
What do you think? - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
:) S15: a little movement, and entirely expected. At this point, Turkey will take Silesia in the fall, Warsaw the following spring and then I can't see where he would get any further. I'm sure the press at this point is mostly about drawing the game. I don't think there's much more I can really put into this commentary so I will begin preparing my EOG's and comment only when the "unexpected" happens. - : Re: The Second-Largest Power
+1 MM and Jacob. I've found that in any situation, I'd rather be the top dog. If I have more units I have greater flexibility to take more centers next season. Who cares if I have 1 extra enemy in the long run. My 3 build France can stop a 1 build England and 2 build Germany all day. Also, just because you're the top dog on the map doesn't mean that you're immediately targeted by the other nations. Russia often has 2 builds in 1901 to maintain the top power, but it doesn't mean that he's the first to go. Often, one of his enemies is the first one to fall.
I also want to +1 Jesus. In a lot of circumstances, I'll forego a build for a tactically better position. It's sorta like choosing to have a knife at your enemy's throat instead of a gun from 50 yards out. - : Re: Pot makes driving safer
There are 3 types of liars in this world. Liars, damn liars and statisticians. I don't care what piece of research comes out unless there's an overwhelming amount of research in support of an idea. I can make statistics say what I want them to say. I'm all for leaving the laws the way they are. Too many people want to spend life doped up on something whether it's alcohol, drugs or prescription medication. - : Re: is the enemy of my enemies enemy, my friend or my enemy...
For stabs, the bottom line is that if someone can stab you, they probably will. I have a firm belief that the only alliances to be had are the ones that can be forced. Plus, the general idea is that friends can come from anywhere. I personally like to keep up good conversation with my neighbor's neighbor as much as I do my neighbor. I don't keep track of what people are saying, I can scroll back through my chat log for as far back as it pertains to what's going on in the map.
As long as you're reading the board as much as you're reading your press, you should be ok. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
F15: Excellent end season for the west. I was wondering if Germany was siding with the Turk, but it appears that he has solidified his position to help the F/R turning it into a F/R/G. There still seems to be some tension in the mix, which is something that I'd have expected would be ironed out. If the west is going to fortify itself, there has to be complete trust given by all parties. France and Germany both have an available army that won't be able to get far unless this mixed fear is reduced.
For Turkey, it was a great thing to secure a strong front line with no gaps. We'll be seeing some pressure put on the eastern front. It's possible that Turkey will gain control of Warsaw and Moscow, but not a definite. There's still a deficit of armies in the east. Not sure what Turkey has planned with the extra fleet. - : Re: Teach a group of high school students to play Diplomacy, akin to SoW
We're up and talking, Zultar. Everything's a go with France. Can't say that he's taking everything with triple support in S01, tho. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
S14: Ah, the map looks pretty solid, give one front. At this point, it's simply a 1 on 1 more or less, so commentary on who's in first and second place is irrelevant.
For the western powers: Nicely done, France, you have the west locked down and all Turkey can do at this point is sit and stare. Russia and Germany, the last part comes down to you. Fortunately, you have Turkey in a bit of a predicament. There does still seem to be some nervousness on the part of Germany toward France and this could be a weak point. The biggest downfall that your group has is a deficit of armies. Your ratio as a group is 9 fleets to 11 armies and along the line, it's going to require more armies to secure, especially if you want to hang on to Moscow and Warsaw for 19 total centers. I'm interested to see if your group feels this is a problem or not and if so, how to overcome it.
For Turkey: you've been blocked out of the west and center. A gain at Sevastopol is nice, but it's arbitrary if you can't get any further. It may not be possible if you can't capitalize on your possible assets. Good luck. - : Re: Teach a group of high school students to play Diplomacy, akin to SoW
I think zultar is implying that he hasn't had a *girl* friend in 5 years. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I think I missed commenting on a Fall phase, somehow. There's not much to say, but I'm curious as to the relationship among "western" powers at this point. The builds say a lot more than the fall moves and I believe the map will be returning to the notion of a draw over a solo. I'll try to comment on the spring which will happen in about 2 hours, but my commentary won't happen until later. - : Re: Oh wow! Top 49%!
Regardless, we're glad you're here. Hope you stick around and earn some positive recognition :) - : Re: Teach a group of high school students to play Diplomacy, akin to SoW
For the record, the French are ok with that. - : Re: Has anyone onsite ever soloed in there first game?
I never solo. - : Re: Teach a group of high school students to play Diplomacy, akin to SoW
lol goldfinger and zultar. rhinoceros did a really good job playing Italy. Plus, I only go after the TA's :) - : Re: School of War Winter 2011
note that I believe each game should have 7 inexperienced players playing with 7 TA's paired with each player. TA's should be qualified for the country they play, so TA's are paired to a country and not a player. There are also 2 professors (more or less) for the game commenting in the forums. Thus, at least 16 people are involved in each season of SoW. That's my opinion. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Can we open a new thread for this? - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
The SoWs can start at any point, pretty much. It's not terribly official. All that needs to be done is to find 7 students and TAs capable of assisting the seven nations and a professor or two. You also need to make sure you have committed players. Lately the SoW's have had CD's in the games and it can disrupt the game process. Professors are asked to have at least a 250 GR or less while TA's have a good record of success. Players should have poor GR's. - : Re: Starting games
The best way to get players into a game is to post the game publicly on the forum, get a group willing to play, and then create the game with a password. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
@Cachimbo: I don't really see a need to comment about the global chat. There's nothing there to really comment about.
@bas, ya it's been a really great game with a lot of (extra and unexpected) turns. - : Re: GenCon
I might come this year. It's been a few years since I've been to Gen Con Indy. - : Re: 2-Day Phase, WTA
makes more sense - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
lol, yes it was. Thanks for that correction - : Re: Teach a group of high school students to play Diplomacy, akin to SoW
TN (any) is fine. I tend to be weaker with Turkey, though and stronger with England and France. - : Re: 2-Day Phase, WTA
You don't even have the 150 to put up for it... - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Well, it seems that I have a moment, so I'd like to post my thoughts on this past series of moves.
#1 Turkey: I think you lost some momentum this last season, but only in your western endeavor. I'll come back to that in a moment. In the east, you played much like I suspected you might. When I commented last season on builds, I stated that we'd see 2 armies and a fleet. This is because your gains toward 18 will be the remaining Italian centers, Sevastopol, and either a French center or another Russian center. I anticipated a fleet build in Ank with armies in Con and Smy because I pictured an army move to Armenia and Bulgaria and a fleet move to the Black Sea. When your builds came about, I was a bit surprised to see something slightly different. I suspected that given the Russian army in Sev, the armies along the eastern portion were for a move and support (naturally). The only problem this brings about is how to take Sev without sacrificing anything. Moscow is in position to support a hold, but the question is what Russia will do with Gal. This is going to be purely guesswork unless you have some inside connection that I'm unaware of. Now to the west. I'd have played this a bit more agressively. When gunning for 18, each country is at a disadvantage that differs from many of the other countries. Ausria and Germany are vulnerable to attack immediately because their centralized nature. Italy is slow-going, Russia can become a massive monster quickly which makes other nations a bit tense, and France can miss out on a stab necessary to gain 18. England and Turkey are a bit different. Their biggest weakness is that they are so far removed from the other side of the map that they are often the last country to cross the stalemate line. In a current Diplomacy study I'm working on, I'm checking where each country gets its 18 centers when it wins. England and Turkey almost always gain 17 of their centers on their respective sides and 1 center from the other side of the major line. These countries often settle for a draw when they can't get to the other side of the line before the other players can form a resistence movement to counter. After this season, you'll have 15 centers and have to pick up 3 centers from the following: Moscow, Warsaw, St Pete (possibly), Marseilles, Spain and Portugal. I was expecting to see some of this advanced planning take shape. But I didn't. I would have entirely ditched out on taking the Italian centers and focused on getting my units across the line someplace. My army would have moved to Piedmont, I'd have had a fleet in the Western Med, and I'd have been hitting for that line hard and fast to take a French center because you could be faced with not getting Warsaw and Moscow. 3 builds this season does the same as 4 but position is everything. Finally, I think you were fortunate that Russia moved to Gal and Bul-Gal wasn't successful. If he simply held and waited to see if you'd have forced him out, then you'd see a stray unit in a very uncomfortable spot.
#2 France: Wow, not the season I expected. The assault on Russia was very peculiar. I understand that he was attacking you, but you 3 are on the defensive while Turkey is trying to solo. This season looks like an attempt to move toward the solo more than it does an attempt to lock down a stalemate line. I was very surprised to see F Bre-ENG, A Bur-Mun and the supported attack on Kiel. I can only assume that Germany and Russia will ally together. I'm also thinking that Turkey will have a much higher chance of soloing this one. There's no cohesion at all among you three powers and at this stage, I'd be patching things up with your neighbors, let bygone's be bygones and tackle the problem at hand. On the flip-side, you'll have 2 builds coming, 3 if you're very lucky.
#3 Russia: Eek. Not the season I'd have hoped it would have been. The French attack took me by surprise. I can understand most of your moves as it looks like you and Germany have come to some sort of concensus, but there are 2 where I wish I'd have seen something a bit different. The first is your northern fleet. I think that it would have been good to get it into the BAR because if worst comes to worst and Turkey takes Moscow and Warsaw, you need a unit west of St Pete to hold the line. The fleet was doing nothing and could have been devoted to that cause. As it stands, though, you've got other problems to iron out. The other was the move to Gal. I'd have held my ground and let him force me out of Vie, especially with a move coming from Sev. The move A Sev-Rum means that you had some idea that he might move Rum to do something and if that's the case, the only assumption I could make is that the move to Gal was to fight against Rum-Ukr. When I'm in a pickle, a lot of times, I try not to do certain things with armies all alone and I prefer to be forced to retreat just in case my opponent leaves a back door open. It's even a great policy to get an ally to force you out of a nearby location so that you can use the retreat as a sort of "second-strike" after everything has gone through to shoot the gap. Overall, not a bad season, though, so I wouldn't kick yourself. Your biggest worry is to bake some friendship bread.
#4 Germany: Not sure why you chose to do virtually nothing with your units. I'm guessing that the French talked really nicely in your ear about a 4-way, stopping the Turk, and all that jazz and then moved how he wanted. In those cases, I always prepare for a potential stab. In this situation, you have to realize that people want a 3-way, not a 4-way and you're likely the extra baggage. I would have liked to see a self-standoff in Yorkshire or doing something with your fleet. Having your units sit idle does nothing to stop the Turk and does nothing to stop F/R from attacking you. As it is, R/F are clearly not on the same page and it gives you some wiggle room, but usually at this point, people are done talking outside the absolutely necessary. Good luck.
Ok, just to put it out there, I'd like to talk stalemate lines. Well, the 17-17 line anyhow, because I suspect that everyone reads the entire commentary and not just what I post to them. I'm sure you're all pretty familiar with the major line that runs across the map, but if you're not, it's a nice 17-17 split.
To the east we have:
-all Turkish centers (3), the Balkans (4), Austria (3), Italy (3), Tunis (1) and Russia except for Sevastopol (3).
To the west:
-England (3), the 01 neutrals (5), France (3), Iberia (2), Germany (3) and St Pete (1).
As I posted earlier, the goal of any power, if he is to attain 18, has to cross the stalemate line before the opposing side can prevent this. Germany, France and Russia sit on or across the line giving them an advantage, because they can easily make 1 move and be on the other side. Italy is next in it's ability to get across the line and it has a broad range of center-nabbing ability since it can stab France pretty quickly and cross the line in the west. England and Turkey are often at the biggest disadvange since they're so far removed from the line. This takes advanced planning when playing these countries to try to cross at some point before the other nations can stop you. So, for those of you that are new, you need to think about timing, when to cross the line, and how to do it so that it raises as little alarms as possible but is quick enough to solidify yourself for the possible solo. - : Re: Teach a group of high school students to play Diplomacy, akin to SoW
I'll help out, if you need it. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
This was a very interesting season. I'll post commentary on Monday. - : Re: So I lost my wallet containing...
Depends on how fast you contact the bank and whether or not they think you're scamming them. If someone takes all your cash and your bank doesn't believe you (like mine did), then you're Kim Kardashian.
Debit card is your first priority. You'll have to file a police report if you find unauthorized transactions on your card before the bank will do anything.
SS card replaces easily and is your second priority
Driver's License is number 3 - : Re: How Much Meat you Packing?
I'm gonna have to +1 Cachimbo on this one. Threads seem to fall into one of several categories with me:
(a) Intriguing/Enjoyable - adds something positive to the forum
(b) Boring - might add something positve, but just not for me
(c) Useless - adds nothing and is as exciting as watching a game played by 1 player
(d) Wasteful - leaves this forum with a deficit
This one is definitely a (d) thread. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
For France:
I'm not sure I'd have gone with a double-fleet build. It seems to me that at this stage, F/R/G would be working together to fight Turkey. If this is the case, then your group comprises of 9 fleets toward holding the line. At best, Russia will lose 1 center meaning that one fleet is disbanded, but after that, you have 8 fleets and what seems to be a deficit of armies able to hold the line. I think that an army build would have been a bit better in Brest. The setup you have now seems to say things differently than where I thought you were going. We'll see how the spring turns out. - : Re: WebDip Statistics
The opening moves breakdowns are for the most common openings. I've found problems with the opening moves listed on the Dip Pouch site. Specifically, a lot of the moves overlap each other, and with statistics, you really need clear-cut lines on where one opening begins and one ends. For example, The Diplomatic Pouch site names several opening moves based on the movement of 2 units (like German openings) and others with 3 and there's some overlap between the two groups where the same opening could be construed as either opener.
Also, sometimes they assume opening moves based on how the fall moves play out, and if you extend an "opening move" beyond the spring, then the possibilities are in the tens of thousands of possibilities.
My breakdown takes about 3 or 4 of the most common for each country based on this site with all other openings lumped under the heading of "other" which is considered 'nonstandard'. Also, the breakdowns for opening moves identify general trends on overall success, not as a percentage, but as avg number of centers controlled by the game's end and compares the confidence intervals to isolate the population mean. It's an effort to identify if one set of moves is generally better than another, or if standard moves are better than nonstandard ones. - : Re: MadMarx ABI-24 EoG's
I believe that the best players will always try to stab you given the chance. You can't climb to the top of this game if you only play "honorably". After all, all's fair in love and war, and this is war, plain and simple. - : Re: A Tribute to Mr. Calhamer
@Geo, did you finally get my attachment? - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
As promised, here is my slice of commentary on the Russian retreats:
I love the disband idea. I wasn't sure if you were going to disband or retreat to Galicia, but the disband was by far your best choice. This means that a build to Sevastopol will be pending. It won't save Sevastopol but it certainly will slow Turkey down a bit. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Well then, I'll comment on the season, then.
#1 Turkey: While some have stated that your fortune is because of an Italian CD, and to some extend I agree with that, I also think that timing is everything and the Russian stab was nicely done. Predictable, but a good call nonetheless. The Italian CD did provide you with Tunis, but if Italy had continued to play, it's conceivable that you could have taken Naples instead. At any rate, the 3 builds puts you solidly in first place and a shot at the solo that you'll clearly try for. There are a number of positive aspects to the current situation including the fact that Russia has no units near Sevastopol or Vienna, France has only 2 fleets in the south (after the current year's build) and despite the fact that the board had the idea that you might solo, Russia still decided to try to move on France. This puts more tension among the other 3 nations that will try to prevent you from soloing. Germany is in no position to do anything against you at current and Russia will have to move some units to counter. The biggest hurdle, however, will be crossing the stalemate line because, while everyone's familiar with the 17-17 line, there's another that contains a 19-15 split where the north controls Moscow and Warsaw. For builds, I anticipate 2 armies and a fleet, or 3 armies depending on where you anticipate need.
#2 France: Tough break. The Italian CD means that you'll have to work solo at blockading the line to the west, which means a re-route of extra units and in light of the fact that Germany is still alive and kicking and Russia attempted some moves against your centers with anticipatory German support. This adds a little more tension to the waters. Fortunately, you have a build coming, but you also have some decisions to make on how to counter the Turkish offensive. The questions I'm curious to see about is what you and Russia ultimately decide to do about Germany. On the one hand, you have to ask if it's better to eliminate him and build to the line, thus reducing the potential 4-way to a 3-way which also increases the risk of a Turkish solo, or simply allow him to move to the line and help maintain control, trusting that he won't stab one of you and ally with the Turk and accept him as a fourth member of the draw which would almost certainly eradicate the Turkish solo possibility. This isn't necessarily a clear-cut decision because it puts a lot of trust into both Germany and Russia as you'd have to focus southward away from some of their northerly units which can be tense. For builds, though, I expect a fleet in Marseilles.
#3 Russia: I'm unsure why, in the face of a possible Turkish solo, you opted to try for Munich and Kiel. Even if you didn't think about the possibility, I don't know why you'd have tried to stab France. You're going to lose a few more centers before this is over but you'll still end in a reasonable spot. Sevastopol and Vienna are not critical losses, or at least not as critical as Warsaw, Moscow or any locations west of the line, and you can afford to ditch some units. I'd like to see your retreat phase and I will comment on it when the time comes. You have an option available to you that I'm not sure you'll take or not. I'll know tomorrow when I look at the map.
#4 Germany: The Turkish move to solo was a great turn of events for you. It brings new possibilities to you that could have you finishing this game out without being eliminated. Depending on your press with the other nations, I think your disbands could be easy choices this season. I don't want to try to predict anything here but I'm interested to see what comes of the next year. Your disbands will indicate which direction you're headed, or at least based on what you have talked about among the others still in the game. - : Re: A Tribute to Mr. Calhamer
@G yeah. I have the addy correct. Can you send me an email and I'll simply reply to it with the attachment? The addy is joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu - : Re: 17 /17 split in WTA game??
slim. - : Re: A Tribute to Mr. Calhamer
I resent the signature Geofram. If you didn't get it this time, then I'm guessing it's a problem of where I'm sending it to. - : Re: Advice from the experts
You have to start inter-shpere relationships early. I tend to see things in this light: in general, yes it matters what you say to the other guys, but it also matters how much you're saying.
Early on, I try to build relationships with all 6 of the other powers. I talk about their sphere, try to dig up information, share stuff with them, offer appropriate DMZ's and talk to them as if I'm a helpful outsider who really wishes them well and seeks to do what it takes to help them out. Sometimes you can help cultivate an alliance for someone.
In your example, let's assume you're playing Germany. One approach might be to talk to R/T/I about Austria. Secure him an ally, but you could tell them something to the effect of "I've talked a great deal to Austria and they're pretty interested in working with you. I can secure an alliance for you if you'd like." Talk to the others and try to manipulate the scene. Pair who you want to work together and separate the others. If you offer to help them in the intangibles, then it can be just as satisfying as working directly with them.
The biggest part of forming an alliance is knowing what your ally wants and working to try to give it to him. For everyone in 1901, they don't want to be the outsider in a conflict. They want at least one secure ally and the opportunity to grow. If you know their focal points (or help them to develop them) then you have formed an ally even one across the board. - : Re: Apology to the players in
@PE you're not out much. She sent me 1 message in French and I told her that I wanted to speak English and that was all she wrote. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
It's cool smiles. I know you were in it for the long-haul. - : Re: Apology to the players in
I actually knew who she was immediately. The french press sorta gave it away. I had to use a french-english online translator to talk to her. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I agree with that. I also think that it's not something to be discussed in the forums either, but rather the global chat of your game but it should always be discussed, even if the decision is to continue on with the game. - : Re: Webdip leagues are back!
I submitted my confirmation but it stated there was some sort of error. FYI. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Well, given Italy's CD, I think that it's appropriate for me to put in a few words here.
First, I'd like to say that I never condone CD's. NMR's are an occasional mishap and can be overlooked but not a CD. I would like to thank those that stuck it out to the bitter end (England and Austria especially) because this shows a person's character in the face of defeat. Losing affects us all from time to time and how you deal with defeat speaks openly about some things of who you are. Those that never give up in a fight are sometimes rewarded for their efforts.
Some might ask, why, especially this late in the game, is a CD so bad? After all, if you've only got 1 or 2 units left and you know you'll be gone next year, why finish it out? My answer to that is simple: because there are still others playing that depend on your participation. When a country goes into CD, it gives every country on the map either an unfair advantage or an unfair disadvantage, even late in the game, and this advantage gets bigger the more centers the CD'er controls.
For those nearby the country, it can mean that they have easy access to free centers that they can take unopposed, much like what happens in S01. This means that these players can afford to devote more units to another task than they would normally be able to do.
For those far away from the country, it has the opposite effect. While some countries get a boost in their gains over the next few years, others have to continue to fight for their gains and growth will be slower or nonexistent while other countries reap the rewards of the CDing country.
For allies of the CDing country, they depend on those they work with. When an ally quits, it can turn an easy task into a difficult one, and a difficult one into a monumentally difficult or impossible one. This is especially true when several powers are attempting to stop someone from soloing. If one of the powers gives up, it can mean that it becomes impossible to hold a stalemate line and prevent someone from soloing. It means allies lose supports and can lose heart.
For the opponents of a CDing country it can give them renewed vigor to stick to an old course even if they were on the brink of changing sides or settling for a draw. It can bolster someone into stabbing an ally when the stab either wouldn't come at that point or wouldn't come at all and it can mean that the enemies gain an unfair advantage against other players.
Even though CD's are a part of the game, I tend to hold a philosophy. If someone CD's in a game I'm playing, I will almost never cancel a game, even if its 1901. I believe that a person who CD's in a game shouldn't be rewarded by dropping the game. Instead, I believe that the game should be drawn once the country has completely left. I don't believe in returning diplomacy points to someone who CD's and the CD should remain as a stain on their record. I also don't often try to find a replacement player (unless it's in a tournament) because the replacement player changes things in a game that can be unexpected. If I worked hard in S01 to secure a Russian ally playing as Austria and by F01 he quits and a new Russia takes his place, he might view certain things in a different light, decide to move contrary to a way that the old Russia and I had discussed or throw a game off balance because things change when a new player enters. New additions to a game lack the emotion and fervor that gets built up in a game as the years go by. Each game has its own history, its own flow and a feel to it that is different for every other game and its all built around each unique person, what they bring to the game and their individual perspectives and devices that they have and new players change these things. In a tournament, however, a new player must be added in order to retain balance and continued progress
Next, I simply want to say that it's particularly poor show to CD in a game of this magnitude. When multiple people spend a great deal of time organizing and participating in a game or series of games, it's complete disrespect to everyone involved to simply quit playing, especially since you sign your name on the entry list before it all begins dedicating yourself to the game for however long it takes and under whatever circumstances are necessary.
Last, I want to apologize for the CD. I'll support whatever everyone wishes to do. You all have my "policy" on it, if it could be called that, and whatever the TA's, players and goldfinger decide is fine. If the game commenses, I'll continue to prof, treating Italy as a dead country, and if the game ends 'prematurely', I'll prepare some EOG's. - : Re: Webdip leagues are back!
I'll go to the website you guys set up and post my interest. - : Re: Webdip leagues are back!
@Draug and Ora: I'd be interested in joining the leagues this year and I got the confirm email but I can't afford to join if turn phases are less than 2 days. can you confirm the lenght before I commit? - : Re: A Tribute to Mr. Calhamer
I'll try. I'll have to check my deleted messages to see if it's in there and if not, then I'll recreate it. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
No country has anything to lose by trying for the solo, per say. I simply think that a solo isn't going to be the outcome. My statement above was:
"If you know that you're part of an endgame draw, its alway's worth it, in my opinion, to try for the solo because the odds of you being eliminated are next to nothing."
Certainly there are countries out there that don't want to lose and they may have the belief that a survival is better than an elimination. If that's the case, they might be willing to aid someone in soloing in hopes of one of two outcomes coming about: either they survive under someone's solo or they take part in a draw by switching sides late in the stages to prevent their prior ally from soloing.
Russia, (no offense) has played this game rather gullibly believing in his ally's good will and honesty. He has allowed himself to sit in a position to be stabbed on a number of occasions and Turkey could stab him and so could France. It wouldn't be an effort-free stab at this point, but things could change. Heck, if Russia played his cards right and Italy rejoined the game, he could have the opportunity to solo.
The bottom line is that all I'm saying at this stage is that everyone's unit count is pretty close and that makes a stab difficult. One thing I've said in prior seasons is when setting up a stab, you really want to make sure that your units increase while your opponents remain the same or decrease for a stab to be effective. The last thing you want in any stab is to see your opponent with new builds coming at his home centers because that refortifies his critical areas. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Certainly someone could attempt a solo but when we look at the center distributions, no one's a standout. I'm calling the endgame as F/R/T. Let's assume some things for a moment:
Let's say that France tries to solo: He could pick up 3 more centers along England, possibly about-face and take Kiel and Berlin but he'd soon find that Turkey has advanced to the stalemate line in the south, Russia and Turkey are there along the German border and Russia will continue to see builds and stack units in German areas all before France can get anywhere.
If Russia tries to solo: he's currently got a deficiet of fleets in the north to capture English centers and France would stalemate him along the F/G border, Turkey controls a dominant position in the south over Russia which would mean the loss of Sevastopol and Budapest and he lacks the real solid front-line necessary to keep units out.
If Turkey tries to solo: he has the best chance, in my opinion, to solo at this point because he's the only one that might be able to get a German ally long enough to prove anything, and he's also got the builds coming and the position right now to set up for the possibility. If he were to try to solo, though, Russia could stalemate him along Warsaw and Moscow meaning that he'd have to have 3 western centers at Portugal, Marseilles and Spain in order to win along with Rome, Naples, Tunis, Budapest, Vienna and Sevastopol to boot. France will also have another build coming this year and he's already begun to move a unit south to cover things.
In any scenario, the person trying to solo would *have* to get the help of Germany in order to do it, and after Germany has begun to help, the other two involved would simply cry out to Germany to stop helping and they'd throw him into the endgame draw turning it from a 3-way to a 4-way which is something that only Germany wants. I will also say for the record, that at this stage, if you know that you're part of an endgame draw, it's always worth it, in my opinion, to try for the solo because the odds of you being eliminated is next to nothing, but also, I think that in this situation, no one has the standout units necessary to do it. - : Re: Reposting thoughts on Italian opening strategy
I think you summed up nicely what I had posted in other threads in that Italy needs to find out who is attacking who in the east and join the underdog in order to secure that sure-fire ally that will last a longer period of time and find that guy that's willing to see you get some extra builds because you're all he's got. I'd posted that in most 3-on-1 cases in the east, Italy gets the shaft in center division and when it's time to shift gears and attack a new nation, a western power comes from behind and attacks him.
Starting out west is a possibility but it's often slow-going, requires the efforts of Germany and England, and when it's all said and done, Italy has to dedicate to an alliance in both the east and the west to make things work in order to prevent being crushed in the middle.
I've found that when I play Italy, I often have to meddle in the affairs of the west to cause them to move slower and generally away from my location while in the east I have to simply gain builds. The more Italy has when an eastern power is reduced, the higher chance he has of finding an ally instead of becoming the next meal. - : Re: Diplomacy ratings
I keep my own stats and maintain them on my flashdrive. Eventually I plan to create a website and upload all of the stats I've computed over the years so that there's someplace public for people to visit. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
S12: A very brutal year for one player in particular and we will also see the final three by the game's end. I think I can now say with certainty, the rest of the game is about cleaning up loose ends.
#1 and 2: France and Turkey:
For the first time, I have placed Turkey in the top spot, although it's a shared position, so a hearty congrats to him in his successful change of events.
France: I'm more apt to place you in the second spot but only based on the centers you'll gain this season. Your position is a beautiful one and you'll definitely see a new center at Liverpool this season, but I'm not entirely sure you'll get Edinburgh. The second great thing about your position is that you threaten so many of your opponent's centers. Anytime you threaten 2 or more neighboring centers, it forces your opponent to really have to think about what you might do. In your position, there are no less than a dozen ways you could move depending on how aggressive you play, which centers you're going to put emphasis on and how you think Germany will move and this type of diversity really means that Germany is simply guessing and when you have your opponent on the ropes like you do here, then all the power is on your side. Although it doesn't need to be said, you're one of the 3 countries that will participate in the endgame draw and I think this type of press has made up a portion of your messages in the past several years. You've worked cohesively with Russia and I don't see any singular power having the ability to get a solo.
Turkey: A really fortunate turn of events was the NMR of Italy. This helped you speed up the process in reducing the country. Another congrats in resecuring Russia as an ally and at this point, it's a matter of finalizing another year or two. I like your position a bit more than the French one in that you have all the bonuses of the French player in the way you're threatening a ton of your opponents centers forcing him to guess at what you're going to do but you also have the option of stabbing an ally at any point if you felt that you had the chance of a solo and the stab would be pretty good. At this point, though, I don't see another stab in the future. If you'd have had over 10 centers, then I'd be telling Russia and France to watch their backs, but like I mentioned earlier, this part is simply about cleaning up. It doesn't really need to be stated since it's obvious, but you'll be one of the players at the endgame and congrats at turning a last-place position into a potentially first place ending. When I calculate my personal stats, I enjoy seeing a first-place position in a draw. Even though it might not translate to more in terms of the draw, I feel it's better to be the top guy in a draw rather than third or fourth.
#3 Russia: Not a bad number 3 because this position is still really solid. I love the move to Silesia since it prevents stabs, even though I don't see one coming in this game at this point. I also like the move to Lvn and Mos. It was conservative compared to a direct march into St Pete but it was a sure thing. I'm sure most people would say that Germany was 90% certain to not move Norway into St Pete and I agree with them because his disband occurred there showing that he has no interest in defending his rear flank, but there's still a small chance that he'd have bounced you there, and sometimes it's better to be safe than sorry, especially since you weren't going to get Nwy this season, so why not take the sure route. It also goes without saying that you'll be the final person in the endgame draw since I don't foresee any reason for anyone to stab anyone else. You, France and Turkey were all at the cusp of defeat in this game and all three of you turned things around to end on a strong note. A big congrats to you as well.
#4 Germany: I'm glad to see that you continue fighting even though you'll be out this game. I'm sure I can say that everyone who has played a dozen or more games of Diplomacy has been there before and I know it sucks, but it says something really great about you that you're willing to fight to the last man. Not all games flow like this one and sometimes someone will try to solo and someone else will need to keep a minor power on the map to ensure that the top dog doesn't move on to solo. I myself have kept a small country around to ensure that someone didn't solo and that low center country wound up with part of a draw instead of an elimination. You did a great job for 95% of the game and it was only a small portion of the game where you overextended yourself that caused you to falter. At this stage in the game, you've got a lot of choices on how to defend, but I usually find that defending only means you die slower. In my opinion, I think it's better to throw in some tricks and try to slip behind enemy lines and screw up their backfield. They wrecked your game, so spend some time wrecking theirs. It often results in a few things: (a) Your opponent sees that you're throwing yourself at him and he backs off because he doesn't have the lone strength to defeat you and you win a new ally, (b) It does nothing to faze your opponent but it slows or halts his progress while his ally sees regular gains, at which point you can rest well that since you're going down, your opponent could easily get stabbed in the process, and (c) It sometimes spurs someone neighboring your opponent to join the foray and it wins you an ally in the process. In the past several seasons, that's what I'd have tried. Focus on one opponent (didn't matter if it was Russia or France) and fight them until they cry 'uncle' or get so pissed at you that they spout profanities at you vehemently. I don't see that happening in this game, but it's something to think about in the future. Reducing yourself to defending is a hard habit to break because people often think that if they survive long enough that someone will come to their aid, and while it's true in a small portion of games, it's far more common that your assault on one opponent will cause them to break.
#5 Italy: Uh...an NMR? I see you haven't been on in over 4 days and it wasn't even you that requested the pause, so I don't really understand the NMR here, especially given that your profile shows that you were on 2 days ago. I'm not saying that this NMR will cost you anything, because you were out the door anyhow since the R/T reformed for the final push, but it's still poor show. Hopefully you'll return to finish this out. - : Re: Rule question! Retreat edition!
As long as the location in question is unoccupied, accessible by the retreating unit, and wasn't the location of a bounce, then it's a legal retreat move. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I'll comment briefly on the builds, especially in light that neither the Turkish build nor the German disband was what I predicted and I've been spot-on a vast majority of the game. This lends me to believe that I understand the flow of the game for most of the seasons but this last season is a bit of an oddity.
Builds and disbands often indicate quite a bit about what a player is planning, who he's talking to (or could be talking to) and where he's going in the years to come. Often, most countries have a nice mix of fleets to armies with the tendency to produce armies because travel across land is much easier than travel around land. As I stated in another thread, most countries have about 30 to 40% of their units as fleets with the exception of Austria and Germany who have a maximum of 5 fleets at the end of the game and more often less than that. A given country will build units to suit where they see their next areas of expansion are versus what they currently have on the board. People also determine builds based on the units their targets have.
As an example, I'll comment in-depth about the 1901 builds because they were pretty plentiful and things were pretty fresh.
England: I predicted a fleet in London and either a fleet in Lvp or army in Edi. The fleet in London is the most logical because it can be turned against either target rather fluidly and doesn't necessarily indicate an intended target. The army build would mean that he's going to try to convoy it somewhere and since he's already made landfall in Denmark, he might try to get in at Holland or more specifically Belgium. However, England followed through with a second fleet build at Liverpool which meant that he's going to move against France. This also tells me that tensions are high for England and that there has been a fallout between France and England. If I were Russia at this piont, I'd have immediately jumped on the bandwagon at this point to either confiscate Norway and join the English assault or support England and attack Germany while the getting is good.
France: I predicted a fleet in Brest for certain and likely a Parisian army with the possibility of a fleet in Marseilles. I expected that if France and England were on pretty good terms, the army build would be necessary to move on Germany and Paris would give him a good spot for him to place it because it does all of the things an army in Marseilles does and covers Picardy as well. The doulbe-fleet build told me that there was going to be war between France and England and that neither of them were caught unaware by it. The second fleet also told me that he trusted Germany quite a bit and the decision was not a last-minute call and that they'd been talking about plans for quite some time.
Germany: I predicted a fleet in Kiel and army in Berlin and Germany built the other way around. The fleet is often an arbitrary build because it does the same thing as a fleet in Kiel except that it can move to the Helgoland Bight which is a great spot to storm the North. The army build is more what I concern myself with. If Germany builds 2 fleets, then he's definitely anti-English but the army build means that he's still going to stake a claim on the land areas because there's only so much an extra army can do early on unless it can get convoyed. The army build is often used to stack the line along the French border or to move to Denmark, but since England controlled Denmark at this point, Germany was going to want it back.
Italy: I predicted a fleet in Naples and army in Venice which is what the board saw. I also thought the possibility of a double-army was out there, albeit unlikely. Italy often needs another fleet early on because it's a stronger choice all-round. Like England, the army on the Peninsula is more defensive, but here Italy was on the attack. The ION is his greatest sea zone and it needs to be occupied. The army build is a no-brainer because he's going to continue to assault Austria, which means that he needs to get into Tyrolia. He may not move there initially but if his target is future gains in Austria, an army is the way to go. Also, a double-fleet is a bit too much here because there's only so many places to put a fleet in the south.
Austria: An army in Budapest was the only option.
Turkey: I predicted an army build since I saw things as a I/T and not a I/R. The army would have been able to move against Russia for a future build but when a fleet came into play, it felt out of position.
Russia: two armies were the only choice available for the country. As a general idea, fleet builds in Sevastopol are anti-Turkish because of their limited ability to be put to use against Austria and builds in St Pete show that he has interests in the north.
Back to this game: Neither build I predicted came true and this often indicates that my vision for how the game will flow differs from how other players think it should go. I think the players involved should try reading the board, read my prior commentary and try to piece together what's going on, because the builds and moves are your ears into other people's conversations. Good luck in the year to come for all players still playing and I eagerly await the finalization of Spring moves. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
The build phase for 1911 is about to finalize and the game has been rather difficult to simply put into a few sentences. The "alliance" structure (if you could state that) has been extremely fluid and has shifted year-by-year and no singular alliance has strong for a good portion of the game barring the French-German one which fizzled out years ago. Everyone in the game has been at a high point (barring 1?) and a low point in terms of its power.
Depending on whether or not someone tries to solo, the game has a minimum of 2 more years to go before consolidating if everything goes picture-perfect. If not, it could easily extend into 1916 and beyond if the powers involved try to reduce the game to a 3-way endgame. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
bump - : Re: New Ghost Ratings up
lol, quite funny. - : Re: What are some good songs to sing unaccompanied (that aren't that hard)
My youngest likes Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star and Jesus Loves Me. - : Re: New Ghost Ratings up
Woooooo! Up 41 spots to #1! - : Re: A Tribute to Mr. Calhamer
Geofram, I sent you one a month ago. Not sure why you don't have it. Can you double-check and get back with me? The email would come from joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu - : Re: Let's Assume
Interesting take dD. I tend to stay in Spain. I believe that if I make an error, then it doesn't matter which way I go, I simply gain 1 center from Portugal. However, if I remain in Spain and I guess right, then I keep the build.
I also have the opposite belief of dD. If I hear around the board that Italy's moving against me, then he probably is. I tend to communicate really well with people and can tell when I'm being lied to long before the lie takes shape. - : Re: How to Get People to do What YOU Want
I play very straight-forward. I offer to ally with everyone I can and see who I believe the most. I also try to put myself in the shoes of the other guy and think "what would I want if I were him" and I try to offer him that very thing. I've found that alliances are based almost solely on gain. The other guy isn't going to want to work with me if he has no room to grow. Once he quits growing, he will then think about if he can move over top of me. Thus, I try to lay down a plan of action that will suit the both of us. I try to be honest and upfront. There's little use lying early on. I'd say that I tell the truth 90% or more of the time and lie 10% or less of the time and when I lie, I make it count.
Second, I work to lead. I present concrete plans, a direction forward and clear thinking. I find that a vast majority of people tend to follow and they "cling" to leaders. When I offer a solid plan, it shows someone I'm interested and sincere and that I've spent some time in our present situation to think through things and develop a plan that includes US, not just me. People respond far better to this type of press, rather than "hey can we bounce here?" or "I'm interested in ____"
If, at the end of 1901, I have no allies, I move on to their neighbors and make allies with them. If I'm playing as France and I'm being attacked by England and Germany, then I make friends with Russia and offer him whatever it takes to apply pressure on some country until they want to be my friend. I've found that in this game, it's good to make sure that everyone stays busy, and that the busy-work shouldn't be you.
Last, if I think that things are going sour, I find someone I can trust and offer to get them an ally if they can do the same for me in return. - : Re: Let's Assume
Also, what sorts of things would you have to hear around the board to convince you to do the other? (ie: if your answer to the first question was that you'd hang out in Spain, what sorts of things would cause you to rethink that position)? - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Very true. Even though this game has been paused pretty frequently, I must say, it turned out to be far more successful than the first SoW this season. No real CD's or NMR's (barring one early on) and everyone seems to be sticking it out. I'm really looking forward to the endgame and seeing some final EOG's. I wanna thank all of the TA's and students for this game, because you guys really made it exciting for me to be a part of. - : Re: Out-Guessing Your Opponent
Well, I for one totally agree with Jacob on opponents. I posted essentially the exact same thing in both my SoW Game 1 EOG and as a prof about meta-cognition in game 2. There are definitely 2 types of thinkers, and although my labeling is different, the classifications are exactly the same. I also mentioned that sometimes you have to try to make a huge leap by trying to think about what you think your opponent is thinking you'll do and counter that move.
Although the situation is generic, it holds true for a majority of people, and where some say there's a spectrum, I think there's less of a diverse spectrum than one might think. I might even decide to study the situations and outcomes at some point by observing various cases in games to see what people do. This sort of thing boils down to sociological statistics and general trends as it pertains to most people. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Golly...this has got to be the pausing-est game ever (: \) - : Re: Id like to question the random country chooser on the site.
Technically, there is no random to anything, especially computers. All computer programs work off of pseudo-random methods, usually basing their coding on the computer internal clock. - : Re: Etiquette / Introducing a friend / playing in the same game
I've introduced my brother-in-law to the game and played non-anon games with him. Same with people I know here at college. I simply make it a point to stab them. It teaches them not to trust anyone, including you, and they still learn the ropes of the game. So...for the record, if you're my friend in real life, don't ally with me. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
F11: Some countries really scored this last season while others didn't quite meet the mark that I had for them.
#1 France: This last year you ended much like I predicted a few hours ago :) and while I anticipated the possibility of a build, I expected that it would come with Russian assistance. I also anticipated that you'd be sitting in Liverpool at this time with Russian support from the NAO. I'm not sure why that wasn't there. I like the NTH move since it gives you some more pressure points to hit against Germany and it sets you up next season for some success.
#2 Turkey: First, I must congratulate you on your success this last season. I honestly anticipated Russia applying more support orders for Italy than he did. In fact, not only did he not issue a support order for Italy to move, but he also issued a support order for you into Trieste. The dynamic in the south is very peculiar. I'm sure the press going around among the three of you is equally hard to follow. My gut is telling me that Russia misordered and there's still some enmity between the two of you. To that degree, I expect to see an army in Ankara this coming build phase.
#3 Russia: I'm sorry if you're feeling chumpy after reading my commentary, but there are certain factors that I think need to be in place when an assault is taking place, and stab prevention measures are a must. Certainly, it would have been really powerful for you to come out ahead in the number of centers you've got, especially under the knowledge that this game is likely going to see the elimination of at least 2 more powers. While those powers are rather easy to isolate at this point, that may not be true in future years. There were two areas that I'd have gone slightly differently (barring press). The first is that I'd have opted to support France into Liverpool. This would have put Germany down 2 centers and your ally up 1 and the incoming build would indicate whether or not France is going to continue to be your ally. The second is the assumed misorder and supports around Trieste. I'd have issued 2 support orders for Italy to move into Trieste to ensure that Turkey remains neutral and your (assumed) ally is +1 in the fight you're facing. This last year looked like a struggle for survival instead of a confident Russia rolling over his opponents. Not that your situation is bad, because the Lvn-Mos move will finally pay off since Turkey will have a newly built unit coming into play, but it also leaves Kiel isolated, and you can't possibly expect France to give you a new build someplace if you're simply gobbling up centers you can't manage. I'm curious where you anticipate your next build to come from. Hopefully France will be exceptionally generous in the year to come, because if you can come out with a build next year, then I think you will appropriately deserve a position in an endgame draw. If not, then I'd be rather nervous about the circumstances. You did a really great job getting over the large mountain of what was your downward spiral, now it's just trying to get over that next little hump and seeing some progress.
#4 Germany: This is going to be a difficult disband. The disband that you select will determine where you lose ground next year. I expect that you won't hold on to Lvp much longer and the other center(s) you lose will be entirely dependent on what you disband next year. I'm going to assume that it will come down to Skaggerak or Helgoland Bight, neither of which is comfortable. I also hope that you're talking to whoever you can, because the tides could turn depending on what you're offering.
#5 Italy: Clearly not the year I expected out of you, and not by any fault of your own. Also, the path forward isn't a very clear one. There's not a whole lot that I can really comment on that hasn't been talked to death, but I'm hoping that you've got some plans to manipulate the scene. When I play, and even more so with Italy, I've found that when you're in a crunch, if you want an ally in a certain country that is currently not being very friendly, then you talk to his neighbors and talk them into applying enough pressure on said country that they have no real choice but to work with you. Since diplomacy is the key to success, talking to everyone on the board is the only thing that will get you out of your situation. It might mean promising the moon, threatening, lying or convincing someone that you've got the key to their success. You spend time and break up alliances that you want to see dissolve and build alliances that you think will give you a higher chance of success. In many a game, I've talked to members of the opposite sphere as myself and asked them to help me find an ally and that I would do the same for them. At this point, you'll have to gauge where your best chances of survival and gain are going to come from. If you can gain a few more centers, then you become someone with a lot of leverage to every country instead of a speed bump. My bet is that once Germany's gone or nearly so, you'll be in trouble if you aren't already.
There are some things to look for in the coming year or two. The first is what happens in the north. I believe that things can go down one of two ways: either Germany will be eliminated and France and Russia will work to tie up loose ends on whatever goals they have set for themselves, or it will be that Germany will become the janissary to one of the two nations who will use him for heightened power. I won't go into this a whole lot because I'd like to save some certain comments depending on what happens and I don't want a possible spoiler alert.
In the east, we have a different dynamic going on and one group will eventually gain some ground. The diplomacy in this portion of the world is far from over, and if I were the three nations involved, I'd be talking quite a bit about some very solid and concrete plans to shift things a bit quicker than turtle-mode. The longer it takes to eliminate a country, the nastier things tend to become. Prior neutral parties suddenly become enemies, new wars erupt and new alliances are formed. These tend to occur at the demise (or near demise) of a country and they often impact those that are further from the action. For example, in a new game, if the west eliminates England earlier than the east can eliminate a country, F and G will have new plans. F might swing south and hit Italy, at which point, he's going to be talking to Italy's enemies or he might move against Germany and be talking to Russia. On the flip side, if the east eliminates a country first, then it reshapes things going on and some western powers have a dynamic to think about going into the years to come. The similar holds true in this case. Germany is going down, and may continue to do so. If his candle snuffs out in the next 2 years, then some things will inevitably change in the east and the three eastern nations had better be prepared for what changes. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
It's just a view that I hold. I'd rather wind up with a survival, and so if I'm facing elimination, it might be better for me to totally ally with someone and help them solo if they can keep me alive for the survival than it is for me to fight everyone and get killed in the process. Tournament scoring is often by that same design. It's not necessarily a rule that I have, insomuch as it is simply the understanding that as long as you have pieces on the board, then you have a chance.
If you help someone solo and the game gets stalemated by opposition before the guy you're helping can solo, then you participate in a draw, especially if you're too valuable to eliminate. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
S11: Although the commentary is late in it's coming, I tried getting on last night but the wife and I watched the Office on Netflix. This last year was easily one of my favorites. A majority of the moves were really well-planned and executed and no one made any real blunders as I had seen in years past. Even if you consider yourself to be on the losing side of things, you should at least see what I'm looking at as evidence that things are improving in gameplay.
#1 France: Some moves made by Germany will mean that you might not see any growth this year, although the possibility exists for a 1 center gain, but you've got a really solid spread for your units with no real gaps anywhere, and the fact that you and Russia are taking the last of German home centers means that he will no longer see future growth, even if he manages to gain a center someplace. Also, I'm thinking that you've started game-planning for next year as well. If not, there are a lot of elements to think about, and they need to be answered this build phase.
#2 Russia: While the south is a mix of things going on, my bet would be that Italy is working with you over Turkey, and if that's the case, then you're in pretty good shape. If not, then it means that Turkey is in the #2 spot while you get bumped the the #3. Given that Italy is your ally and not the Turk's, then things look really good for you down south. In the north is another matter. You have this problem that is regularly recurring, and one that I had warned you about several times so far, and it's the total dependence upon one country to get you ground. The move from Berlin to Kiel was great, but it was coupled with A Sil-Gal and Lvn-Mos. This means that you have a lone army amid a sea of other people's units and a vacant and easily accessible Berlin. This violates so many of my rules that it begs a stab. At any point, France could stab you by taking both Kiel and Berlin all in one year and you're powerless to do anything about it. You found yourself in this same situation in the south with Turkey. It indicates that you're the easily stabbable type because you're willing to shift all of your units away from your ally and simply trust that he won't stab you in the back in the process. This type of play is foolish at best. If I were in your shoes, I'd have used Silesia to move to Berlin in order to cover one of your centers and support a hold on your newly (not yet) acquired center where you expect to see ground. I'll reiterate a few of my personal rules that I've placed within this thread at more than one spot: the first is that "the only alliances to be had are the ones that can be forced". Simply put, this means that if you can't force your ally to be your ally, then he might stab you. There are no alliances in this game unless YOU can force there to be one. If your ally can't stab you, then he's got to ally with you unless someone he's working with can stab you. Preventing this often means having a mutual border fortified with some units to keep the peace, ensuring that he has someone else attacking him and keeping him busy, or ensuring that he has adequate growth to meet his needs. If these factors aren't in place, then what's to keep him from stabbing you for new ground? Stabs generally occur when a country you both are attacking are nearly wiped out and the other guy moves to get a jump on you before you get one on him, or when there's a dramatic shift in the alliance structure of the other sphere of power. The second rule that I want to state is that no one should be as close or closer to your centers than you are. In your case, both you and France are equally close to Berlin because you don't have a unit camped there. In addition to that, he has more units surrounding Kiel than you do and a stab would occur with France first taking Kiel and forcing you to retreat to Berlin. Then, since it's the only unit nearby and it has no support, he would take Berlin. You'd be at -2 and he'd be at +2 which is a net show of 4 units difference--a very lethal stab. If you haven't learned to not trust an ally yet (and it's happened twice this game where you got stabbed), then you need to learn it soon.
#3 Turkey: This last set of moves weren't at all what I'd have done. I don't think they were terrible, but they simply weren't productive. Taking Serbia with Trieste, while it couldn't be cut, it simply means that you've traded one center for another (assuming Italy is working with Russia). I'd have moved Trieste to Vienna and Albania to Serbia with Rumanian support. This would have given you a stronger line of units at Tri, Ser, Rum and forced R/I to either leave Tri alone or give up Vie, but not both. As it stands now, you might not get a build this next year (again, this is under the R/I assumption. If there is a T/I, then all of this does not apply). I do like the fleet movement. It's more secure and gives you room to do all kinds of nice things with your units. I think this next year might be a bit tough, and if you manage to come out at +1 center, then you'll be a pretty strong force going into next year.
#4 Germany: The loss of Kiel will come as a tragic blow but after this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone offer for you to become a janissary in return for helping them achieve a stronger position. The situation you're in offers the strongest janissary possible because future growth for you doesn't translate into more German units on the map and an ally has far less to fear about supporting you into various centers than would the janissary who still controls at least one home center. Clearly, helping someone else solo is far better than being eliminated, and it also gives you the chance to possibly participate in a draw, should that event occur. In general, I think your moves looked pretty good, even thought the results were less than stellar. You'll have to think through this next set of moves really carefully to ensure that you don't lose even more ground.
#5 Italy: Nice season once again. I expect that any alliance structure you're apart of will be seeing you with a build this season. If not, you should be arguing in favor of one. Your front line is almost entirely secure, with the exception of the ION, and you did something greater than an all-holds move which many dwindling countries resort to in the waning years of their existences. The slight surge of forward momentum could mean that you have a positive future, but you've still got a long way to go if you're going to participate in any draw situation. Keep yourself useful and make sure that you're talking to the other players more than any one else is. I'm hoping to see you come out of this at +1. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
It's gonna be pretty late in the season before I can post to the commentary. - : Re: please an information...
I could be wrong, though. It might be Flatulent Killer - : Re: please an information...
the second is correct. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1 EoG's
I agree. Pretty sad turn out for this one. Game 2 is going really well, though. - : Re: What was your Diplomacy experience before Webdiplomacy?
If everyone in the game knows one another, more or less, or you have a similar circle of people you know, then it's not really meta-gaming, especially if you try to keep things as neutral as possible between you all.
I invited my brother, his roommate and his roommate's family to play on this site and we had a game going. The only person I knew was my bro but I had no problem stabbing him for the win.
@ Cachimbo, lol, man-crush, eh? What's it stem from? - : Re: What was your Diplomacy experience before Webdiplomacy?
Would you like to expound on that "technical loss" you suffered? I believe that it had something to do with an 's'...not entirely sure :)
GenCon Diplomacy was awesome. I allied with Turkey early on and told them that Jacob and his brother were brothers and that they'd naturally ally with one another (didn't tell him that I was their friend) and he was immediately ticked off saying "THATS NOT FAIR! and he was in my pocket from that moment on. I stabbed him taking Smyrna early on, fed him a crappy lie that he totally bought which allowed me to stab him a second time.
I'd love to do it again, given the opportunity. - : Re: On the Proper Usage of Fleets
@Jacob: My numbers are merely the illustration of a trend. The range for English fleet production is from 3-12 while the army spread is 4-11. most games have the winner at about 16 units on the map and I think that 7-8 fleets isn't a bad number. If you look at the centers that England usually controls at the end of the game, its often France and Iberia, Scandinavia, Germany, St Pete or other areas of Russia (north of Sev) and the Italian centers. More often, England dips down into Italy crossing the Med for #18. If you go this route, you need more fleets. If you choose to go into further parts of Russia, then you need more armies.
The ultimate question is "where do I see my 18 centers", and a lot of the time, English gains stop at St Pete and/or Warsaw. Moscow isn't a frequent build, but Tunis is.
Also, the numbers I'm showing have nothing to do with "does England solo less or more often with 8 fleets?" because all the games I looked at were solos, and they're assumed to be average wins. Thus, in order to see the mean English win/draw rate, you can expect anywhere from 4-12 fleets on the map (avg 8). I tend to have about 40% of my units as fleets. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1 EoG's
I doubt it. I'd have liked to hear from Rhinoceros, but that's not going to happen. I'm honestly surprised the thread was bumped several times. - : Re: On the Proper Usage of Fleets
I still see England as a strong naval power. Remember that of the 18 centers needed to win, only 2 are accessible by land only: Paris and Munich. Very rarely will England dip into Austrian soil for some more and I strongly agree with the 50% ratio because for England, they have more retreat options than armies under tense situations. Plus, the only way to move from German territory into French soil requires a strong fleet presence. Additionally, if France builds 50%, England needs the naval advantage in order to overcome him.
I do agree that many Italians build one or two too many but I do agree with the 40% approximation. Also, remember that my numbers come directly from solo games and not draws, so a 60% fleet England can and does win. - : Re: FB
Strange, it didn't even cross my mind to add people from Webdip to my profile. - : Re: On the Proper Usage of Fleets
For the number of fleets and armies a country typically has for the win, I did a statistical analysis of that (surprise). Each country sees differing amounts of fleets in most games.
Austria: Often has between 2 and 5 fleets the entire game, it's only one of 2 countries that can solo with it's original number of fleets. Clearly, being a land-based country has it's advantages.
England: This is a very fleet-heavy country and it often has 50-60% of its units as fleets. The end games often see between 6-10 fleets, sometimes more. Since it's on an island, it will clearly need more fleets than most of the other nations.
France: This is a strangely fluid country and the ranges for the number of fleets and armies on the map is pretty broad. Most games saw an even distribution of fleets to armies (8 of each by the endgame) with typically one or two more armies than fleets overall. The fact that it can move north and south for a victory shows the need for a nice mix of fleets, but armies are necessary as well to help support fleet movement along coastal zones.
Germany: Similar to Austria, Germany is pretty army-dominant, although most games saw about 4 or 5 fleets and upwards of 7, although armies are typically the dominant unit since it often finds its centers for victory at locations that can easily be reached by land.
Italy: Another fleet-heavy country, being a peninsula, it's often found with 40-50% fleets. After it makes headway along the sea-zones, the armies are used to control certain locations that the fleets can't access easily, especially the land-locked centers like Vienna, Budapest, Munich, and Paris.
Russia: Having 2 coastlines should indicate more fleets than most countries, but this isn't often the case. Most games see Russian militaries with up to 14 armies at the end of the game while many games only saw 4-7 fleets divided between its two coasts. The only locations it really needs the fleets for is Scandinavia, England and control of Italy/Tunis.
Turkey: A slightly more army-dominant nation, it's similar to Italy in terms of unit output: 40-50% fleets and the average game sees 6 fleets and 10 armies at the end. Clearly, control of Austria and Russia require a ton of armies, but control of italy and France requires a healthy supply of fleets.
Also, the map has well more coastal centers than land-locked centers with only 7 that are accessible by armies only, and the remaining 27 can be reached by fleets along coastlines. Also, there are only 4 locations that require a fleet to access, 3 of which are in England.
For the record, England had a few games in my study where it won with 12 fleets and France and Turkey came close to that amount. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
F10: This year had several terrible miscommunications that cost some measure of ground for nearly all countries. There were also some very subtle things that I'm still debating on whether or not to talk about.
#1 France: Ouch. The miscommunication between you and Russia about the caputre of Kiel had some very clear issues. I've often found that this type of miscue occurs once or twice per game, and in most cases, it sets a country or two back. Here, it certainly had ramifications, although nothing that has long-term effects. The fact that you don't have room for retreat means that a rebuild is in order, clearly a fleet to replace the one lost. Also, the move to spain's south coast is a bit strange. I understand the move, but here, it's going to open up a question for you as to what to do in the build phase. I anticipate that things will continue to remain as they have and the Italian feint won't really throw you off much. I think the map will be seeing a fleet build at Brest.
#2 Russia: The miscue between you and France threw off some of your progress, but I don't think that it took much of your steam in the north. To the south, there was clearly some friction that finally caused a cog in the machine to break between you and Turkey. I'm not sure why the cooperative efforts between the two of you broke down, but you're in worse shape than he is. The holes in your defenses are now going to have a price to be paid. This goes back to what I was saying in previous years about alliances. The only alliances to be had are the ones that can be forced. At this point, Sevastopol, Serbia, Budapest and Vienna are now critical locations, and the turn against each other means that Italy now has an ally. He will either have one in you or in Turkey and the question will remain as to which one will be the beneficiary of 4 additional units helping out. Also, the Turkish moves left you with no builds. It is a possibility that the two of you are still cooperating and that you were merely negotiating some center-swapping, but I highly doubt it with all of the strange moves that took place in the south including the failed support of an Italian army to Trieste. Let's see how the following year shapes up.
#3 Turkey: You've got a leg up with the change of events but the next year will determine how things go for you. It will either be a temporary increase or it will be something solid. The build from Rumania will have clear advantages over Russia, but I get the feeling that you'll be lacking the ally that he has, and that benefit could swing some leverage in his favor. I'm curious how you plan on proceeding into the next year because any change in framework has to come with a plan going into it, otherwise it will crumble. For builds, I anticipate one at Constantinople. I'm also leaning toward an army, but a fleet wouldn't surprise me by any means.
#4 Germany: Not a terrible year. Down only one center, but still not any real improvement. The changes in the south could have some ramifications in the north for you as well, possibly something that you can capitalize on. Clearly the 3-way that I was predicting from last year could very well change this year. One problem that I have, though, is that you've still got a nagging Russian fleet that you've decided to not deal with. There's still a problem with Kiel that you'll have to iron out. The move to net you Belgium isn't bad but it spreads out your units a little more which is what you don't want. A gap in your lines can cause a ton of frustration, as Russia can relate. I suspect that you're in the process of climbing out of the boiling waters and into something a scant more calm, but by no means still.
#5 Italy: A really good year for you, even though it didn't have any tangible results in terms of builds. The events in the south are going to give you some room to breathe and ability to negotiate some things. One question is still going to leave me wondering and it's whether or not Russia informed you about the support order ahead of time, and if he did, why you didn't take it. The build you'd have had coming would have paid off in a huge way.
There's more I could post, and will likely do so at a later date. I've gotta run for class but this gives you a snippet to work with in the mean time. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I'll have commentary up pretty soon after the phase ends. - : Re: lalalala
Eventually, I'll upload all of my stats to a webpage and I can send you the link and we can connect the two. Dunno when I'll undertake the process, but it's on my to-do list. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
touche - : Re: Strategy or Tactics: Which is More Important?
I do the same as you do jacob, but in shorter terms. I certainly think about what I want to happen across the board and work to make that happen, but I never go so far as to decide where my pieces will be in x-year (roughly). I look for short-term and maybe 2 years ahead of where I'm currently at. I do have a vague plan of what I want to see and when I want to see it, but a lot of that is dictated on the opportunities that arise as the game goes on. My stabs are not planned stabs, but patient opportunities that may or may not arise. - : Re: Strategy or Tactics: Which is More Important?
I say it's the short-term. The game is so fluid and changes so frequently on a dime, that long-term planning is nearly impossible. I've found that the only real long-term planning I engage in is among those players furthest from me. I'm interested in hearing how you plan long-term, however. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
S10: The game is clearly coming to a close with a 3-way draw. I put the end game in 1913 to 1915 and if it goes beyond then, it's because someone is doing a stellar job of slowing down their opponents.
#1 France: Back in the driver seat, I expect that you'll have 1 build coming to you this season and a nicer setup to control the English Island next year. Germany's fleet lockdown will ensure that your movements are calculated and fluid. The Italian nuissance will be reduced another center this year, but the Italian movements will simply mean that the pressure will be on you (what little there is) instead of on R/T. I must say, I was a bit surprised to not see a support order issued by Munich to assist the Russian into Berlin. This makes me second guess about how much cooperation is between the two of you and whether or not it's simply two countries that happen to be attacking the same country for the same reason. I'm sure the loose alliance is still there, and if it's not, then you've got more to think about than Italy.
#2 Russia: In a really great position, technically, but you'll clearly have a build coming unless you're talking Turkey into giving you Venice. Not sure what the attack on the North Sea was going to accomplish unless France told you he was lending several supports across the north for you that he didn't follow through with. The toughest part of your position is Germany controlling St Pete. This prevents you from gaining necessary fleets in the north to help you bring down Germany. In the south, I still don't like the look of things. I understand that you've got a pretty secure alliance, but I never like seeing one member of that alliance in total control of whether or not a stab occurs and the number of Turkish units near vacant Russian centers is always a foolish choice, especially when it doesn't have to be that way. I'm not betting on a Turkish stab, but if you're going to vacate several of your centers along a mutual border, it's better to make sure your ally does the same. If G and T were to ally at the last minute, you'd be in the hurt. As it is, carry on, but don't get used to the idea that things work out this nicely between two "allies" because I've said it before and it's always true, that in this game, the only alliances to be had are the one's that are forced.
#3 and 4 Germany and Turkey: As I mentioned in a prior season, my rankings stem from which situation I'd rather be in at any given point, and not based on the number of centers controlled by a nation. The tight race between Turkey and Germany is pretty close. I'll touch on the pros and cons for both nations below.
Germany: Your situation is very bleak with the soon-to-be loss of 2 more centers this year. The army build this year proved to be pretty much what I expected: an early disband. In addition to this tight spot, your home centers will be gone this year, which means that the hope of making progress later is slim to none. I wouldn't be surprised to see you become a janissary to another power to ensure your survival. You might be asking, based on the difficult circumstances, why not put you at the solid fourth position? The reason is that in this game, there's always hope and if you were to somehow convince someone to stop being an enemy, or stop being a neutral party and start being an integral part of your survival and future existence, especially in this year or the next, then the tide would turn. I believe that in nearly every situation, there's always something that can be said, something that can be offered, or something that can be done to turn an enemy into a friend, or get a neutral party to switch sides and help you out. It often means more conversation than most people can put forward, simply because they're not sure what to say or do or that the person in the situation isn't the type to talk much in certain situations. I'm interested to see if you can pull something like this out. I'm not privy to the various conversations that go on around the board, so I can't assess the situation first hand. A hearty good luck to you, for what it's worth.
Turkey: Your situation is like a budding flower. Your options are always open, and I see at least one build coming this season regardless of what happens with you. Italy has clearly been reacting to the forum posts and it has turned in your favor. I'm never sure what's going on in the behind-the-scenes game, and situations like the one you're in always intrigue me. The game's not over and I'm curious to see what you do this season. I'm sure regardless of what will happen, you'll at least be squarely in the third spot on the board. I can't completely put you there quite yet, though. The season isn't over yet, and negotiations could still be going on. At the rate you're headed, I'm sure you're part of the drawing party, which is good regardless, because the guy that graduates bottom of his class in medical school is still called 'doctor' much in the same way that a 1 center draw is still a draw. I also suspect that you'll be in the Ionian, and hopefully Venice. I must also send you a strong congrats in being able to filter your fleets into position quickly. I wasn't sure it would happen quickly, but you were astoundingly successful.
#5 Italy: It seems that my commentary last season was the basis for the moves seen this spring. As I stated in the commentary last time, I think the move against France is too little too late. Again, I'm not seeing the press involved in the movements and it could be some sort of plea-bargain, but at this point, Germany isn't in a position to lend a hand in the fight. I hope that your movements give you some sort of glimmer of hope. As I said to Germany, however, in a vast majority of situations, there's something that can be done to give you a way out. It's less likely in your situation, and even though I haven't seen the press involved, to the outward appearance, there appears to be something that you can still do. Good luck for the season to come. - : Re: What's up with Diplomacy Cast?
It's by Nathan Barnes and Eric Mead, who are two long-time tournament pros. The podcast is simply about the game. The first 7 episodes are dedicated to the individual countries with some strategy tips, some things to expect and the flow of the country. The 8th is about stabs. They've also got another about tournament play. Each episode (generally) they interview another member of the diplomacy community who has a strong reputation, especially among tournaments.
It's sort of like Diplomacy World in podcast form. - : Re: MadMarx Anonymous Blind Invitational
I'd say so. The odds you getting each country only once in 7 games is less than 5%, so duplicating one and having 6 of the 7 is pretty low, too. Dunno how Kestas' coding changes those odds since he is giving a little force to the country distribution, but I bet it's pretty fun playing 6 of the 7 countries currently. - : Re: For a win as Austria
Ignore the jerks, scmoo. congrats on your win. - : Re: Russia-US Rail Link
Years ago, dunno how many of you other older people remember this or not, there was discussion of building an underground rail system from the US to England. It was going to remove pressure from the underground rail system and use a series of powerful magnets that would allow a seemingly low-friction train to travel from the US ec to England in a theorized 45 minutes. - : Re: Leaving soon
wow, I can't believe I wasted 10 minutes of my life rereading the posts in this thread. I was simply going to get on and say "bye" to Thucy, but clearly telling him good-bye is off topic at this point. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
bump. It's an hour and a half before the turn of the spring retreats phase. I'm not sure if I'll be on today to comment on the moves and it might be monday around 10ish tomorrow (EST) - : Re: What's up with Diplomacy Cast?
diplomacycast.com - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I'll post a short comment on some builds that didn't go as I predicted which will also serve to bump the thread.
Germany: I gotta disagree with the army build. Initially, I thought an army would serve decent here as well, but then I thought about the situation that you're in. I don't think you'll be able to get Munich back anytime soon, if at all, and so an army and a fleet are essentially the same thing in terms of what they can support, but you also have to think that Russia's going to move in on Berlin this year, and when he does, you're not going to have a place to retreat to with an army, and so your newly built unit is going to get force-disbanded. A fleet, on the other hand, could easily retreat to the Baltic where it can be put to further use.
Turkey: I can understand the need for the fleet in order to gain naval dominance in the south, but you're gonna have a *lot* of shuffling to go down before the fleet can be made useful. I've got other ideas as well, so I'm not going to dis your fleet build too early. I'll wait until the end of the spring phase before I comment more. - : Re: To start a rumor...
I never played with him. - : Re: To start a rumor...
lol, krellin's the only guy I muted, and i'm sure his comment illustrates why I'm glad I did. - : Re: Who fancies a game then?
I'm in 4 games right now. Hit me up in a month and I'd love to play you again Pete. - : Re: To start a rumor...
This has yet to be verified and any personal injury that you abstain as a result of said rumor is merely a manifestation of coincidence. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
No offense, but you clearly don't understand much about what I posted...
Regression deals with a trend and determines whether or not there's a correlation between an x-value and a y-value, therefore, it's not a theory. Second, the line doesn't explain 100% of the data points, it can merely explain a majority of the data points based on the trend. Third, the trend holds true within a given range (from 7 messages to 234 messages) and may not hold outside the bounds of this range, which is where you sit.
Even if it did, then all it's saying is that the trend doesn't explain why you suck. The functions are merely a predictor of what one could expect in a majority of outcomes and by no means says that it's the law. If it was the law, then there would be a perfect linear or logarithmic fit, which we don't have.
The long and short of this is that I'm going to issue you a challenge to read a thread in it's entirety and not just the post above yours and a few select others. Hope this helps explain things, though. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
@Santa, not sure how you're saying that the fact that you
a) have over 300 messages per game
b) play mostly gunboat
c) suck
disproves something that's not a theory... - : Re: Computer skullfuckery pt. 2
wow...keeps getting better.
I had a problem years ago where the OS failed and we tried to reinstall windows xp but didn't have the disks but we did have windows 98. Installing that was a failure. The graphics were closer to 4-bit than 8-bit but everything was terrible and we couldn't access anything. We had all our family pics from when my oldest son was a baby, and everything else on there. Fortunately I knew a guy that was taking CIT classes in college and he had is prof simply extract the data from our hard drive for us and then we junked the computer. - : Re: A Tribute to Mr. Calhamer
Hope you got my PM, Geo. - : Re: FTF in SO CAl
My bro lives in LA county with his wife-to-be and he's got some friends that might play a ftf game. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
@MM: wow, that's quite a bit of talking. It's also about three times my own :) I guess you're outside the bounds of the function. Think your amount of press per game has increased over the years?
@Gob: I assume linear and logarithmic because the r-values indicate a strong positive correlation. Exponential is essentially the same as logarithmic because the natural log function is simply the inverse of the exponential function, and so the data points technically are exponential but simply an exponent of a power less than 1.
It can't possibly be exponential of degree 1 or higher (which is what your polynomial idea is) because it's not at all supported by the data. Also that would suggest that if someone sends at least 100 messages per game then their win/draw percentage should be at least 100 if not higher. Last, it's not any trigonometric function because, again, that's not supported by the scatterplot since it's not cyclic.
Statistics have a value called the r-value (called the correlation coefficient) and the r^2 value (coefficient of determination) that are used to explain best-fit lines. An r-value (which ranges from -1 to 1) greater than 0.7 or less than -0.7 (|r| > 0.7) indicates a strong positive correlation to the given function. The r^2 value is the measure of what percentage of points that can be explained by the function. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
@RD: not sure what you mean by "actual data". All of the data that I obtained was actual data taken from 100 sample profiles that didn't have any gunboat games or variants, simply the classic version and it was a simple random sample to incorporate a wide variety of msg/gm and win/draw pcts.
If by "actual" data, you mean the data collected by the site programs, then no. But all that is is simply a larger sample size and is by no means the population parameter, which is simply what the 100 that I've tabulated are.
I've thought about increasing the sample size to see how much the trends hold true over time, because I first calculated the formulas for a sample size of 60 people and the linear fit was a bit stronger (r = 0.76) and it was roughly equal to the logarithmic fit, but as the sample size increased, the correlation coefficient (r-value) decreased while the logarithmic fit shuffled around a bit but remained pretty steady. I hold the view that given a large enough sample size, the trends would show that it's less and less linear and more logarithmic.
I also surmise that, while there's a strong positive correlation between messages per game and win/draw percentage, that the r-value will still hang around the 0.7 - 0.8 mark because there are other factors that go into a person's win/draw percentage. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
Thucy:
For the linear fit, your *predicted* win/draw percent is 48.7
Your *actual* win/draw percent is 47
Therefore, your results are pretty comparable to what is expected. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
@ Thucy: All you have to do is take the 'total games' in your profile, subtract any games that aren't gunboat and divide your total messages by the number of non-gunboat games. This is your raw messages per game value (the x-value in the formulas).
After this, you can take time and subtract gunboat stats from your wins, draws, survivals and elims and recalculate the percentages and add the new win/draw percents together which gives you the ACTUAL percent. If you take the formulas above, plugging in your x-value, you'll get a number that's assumedly similar to your win/draw percent.
I'll take time to calculate them for you, though and post the results in a min. - : Re: Do you own a boardgame copy of Diplomacy?
I have the most recent copy but I plan on buying a couple copies of the 61 version and a copy of the 99 version with the metal pieces. I don't like the cardboard crap. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
I calculated my formulas before the variants came out on this site. Dunno how they stack against playing variants. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
Also, RD, for your win/draw pct, you need to remove the gunboat games from the calculation.
Your msg/gm and win/draw pct should be barring gunboats entirely.
@ FK, I somewhat agree with that. I disagree in that the game is about building relationships and if talking about things outside the game helps foster a trusting relationship, then it can have an effect. I'm sure much of the time, the comments are rather negligible but not always. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
Also, the 234 was taken from djbent's profile about a year ago. If anyone talks more than her in a game, I'd like to see it. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
@rdrivera: You're wrong about the 300 msg/game. Statistically you cant extrapolate beyond the range of the data because the best-fit lines might not hold true for those valuse. The statistics were calculated for ranges from [7, 234]. Thus, if you have fewer than 7 msg/game or more than 234 msg/game, then you really shouldn't use the formulas I've posted.
@2ndWhiteLine, yes, according to that, you're above the mean. In terms of overvalued/undervalued players, this is merely a predictor of where one should be given the typically expected outcome. There is a measure of expected error which I haven't calculated. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
Cool deal. Is that with the linear or logarithmic fit? - : Re: Computer skullfuckery pt. 2
I know what you're going through. I was in 4 games when my computer crapped out on me. I was going to definitely solo one of them, possibly solo a second and draw for sure on the remaining 2. I had to simply draw all 4 of them, some of them with 5-way draws, just to avoid the CD. It sucked. - : Re: I don't normally share diplomacy tips
I put out a report that dealt with messages/game (not counting gunboats) and win/draw percentage as a ratio. You could always caluclate someone's msg's/game and win/draw pct and compare it to the linear or logarithmic fit to see if they fall above (indicating that they're stronger than the mean) or below the best fit line (indicating that they're weaker than the mean).
The equation for the linear fit (for those who want to know) is:
y = 0.3102x + 14.295 (r = 0.71)
The equation for the logarithmic fit is:
y = 18.6ln(x) - 37.9 (r = 0.75)
All you have to do is calculate their msg/game and input it for the x-value. This will give the predicted win/draw percentage and if their win/draw percent is higher than the calculated one, then they're stronger than the mean, whereas if their win/draw pct is lower than the calculated one, then they are weaker than the mean. The r-values indicate the strength of the fit (the logarithmic fit is a stronger predictor than the linear fit, but the linear is much easier to calculate). - : Re: Diplomacy based on Game of Thrones
I play-tested A Song of Fire and Ice. According to the game reps, my name should be in the back of the rulebook. Seriously. - : Re: Make Your Bid for webDip F2F 2012!
I, for one, will not be able to make it to any central or western US location. Indy's a great choice for me, as is Louisville. I won't be able to TD or EC for anything until 2013 after I graduate but then I can definitely do it. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Yes indeed, F09 moves went through. I was sitting over the game like a hawk :)
F09: A very sweet year, much like what I enjoy seeing in a game at this late stage. Approximately 60% of all games are concluding by 1910 and often, the players finishing as part of the end-game (solo or draw) have eliminated all of the powers that will be eliminated, but this game will clearly be part of the lower 40%. I expect that at least one more nation, possibly 2 will still be eliminated before it's all said and done. This game could easily extend beyond 1916.
#1 France: You've surged back into the top position on the map, even though you have less units than Germany. I place you here simply because you have no real enemies outside G while he has some critical areas that he will continue to see losses. Being the top spot does not mean that you don't have any real issues to worry about, but these will pan out in years to come. A huge kudos to receiving 2 builds this coming year and solidifying yourself as a force to be reckoned with. Your progress throughout the game simply shows everyone that just because things look bleak does not mean that you're out of the game, and in this game, anything can happen. One thing that I wish I would have seen differently is the MAO-ENG move. I think that it would have been better put to use moving to the IRI. Since you would have surely had 1 build coming, any attempt by Germany to slip into the Channel would mean that he'd be facing a new fleet build in Bre. This type of thinking is a little less conservative and it anticipates where you're headed in the following year. In the long run, however, this type of movement is always up for debate and I can't really slight you much for using it. For builds, I believe the map will be seeing a fleet in Brest and army in Paris.
#2 Germany: This second place spot is a rough one. You're certainly in the #2 spot but not comfortably so with F and R breathing down your neck. One of the things I predicted would be Russian advancement on Berlin and I wasn't certain if Gal would be supported into Sil as it was here or if we would be seeing Gal-Boh and War-Sil for a 3 unit front line. France and Russia will clearly be working together, and I'm not entirely sure that you'll escape the flames in this game. Your fleets are still a bit out of position and even with a build coming in at Berlin, France and Russia have advanced enough on your territory that the build is rather negligible. I think a fleet build will be coming in at Berlin this year.
#3 Russia: Wow. Very nice. I'm not sure if you talked Turkey into simply letting you have Serbia so that you don't have to ditch a unit or if you simply told him that you'd move there to cover an Italian move or retreat, but either case, I'm sure Turkey was ok with it and the results were beyond expectations. This allows you to maintain a fleet in a really great spot (I also see that you moved it to a place where it can cause more damage, nicely done). Part of me was worried that if you came away having to lose a unit, that you'd ditch this one, but now this doesn't have to be the case. I do believe that Turkey will be reinstated Serbia once you control Berlin and the F/R/T will continue to thrive, assuming that Turkey doesn't stab you later on.
#4 Turkey: Ouch. A third straight year with no builds, slow progress, and Italy continuing to be a thorn in your side preventing you from being the beneficiary of his centers. I'm sure this will end, but the question is 'how long'. The fact that Italy has a reduction coming to him will help out, but eventually, your fleets have to begin making progress. As long as the F/R/T remains an F/R/T, then you're in good shape, but if this shifts, either you or Russia could be in the hot seat again. I'm sure an army build will show up in Constantinople.
#5 Italy: The Russian covering Serbia was a bit of a shock, and I expected you to have a retreat route if you got pushed out of Greece, but that's not the case. You're faced with a disband but with Turkey losing a fleet, it gives you room to change some things up and not worry about being at a naval disadvantage. I'm still a bit interested in the fact that France has remained entirely neutral toward you which shows that he's content to let you burn while he advances. This increases my belief in a F/R/T. I'd have contemplated striking France a while back simply to give Germany the ability to work with you and ensure mutual survival. At this point, it's a bit unclear as to how effective that type of attack would be since you don't have any units to spare as you did a year and a half ago when the TYN fleet was simply sitting dormant. I think you'll be the next country out the door but it will still take about 3 years. For disbands, I think the TYN fleet will be ditched.
Things to look for: At this point, there aren't many immediate things that stand out unless a stab occurs between Russia and Turkey. The course that everyone is set on will, I assume, continue on until the end. - : Re: Maps
Another option, if you don't mind a little work, is to use RealPolitik, set up the map from spring 01 and issue the moves for each country under the "orders" link at the bottom of the game page.
This would give you an "uncluttered" view of the map, although, I for one really like the moves shown on the map because it gives a pretty good description of how everyone moved last season with small exceptions. - : Re: copyright violations?
The bottom line for copyrights is if Hasbro is losing money because of something we are using of theirs, then there's a copyright infringement. This site does not do that. It doesn't charge to play the game, people on this site aren't going to not buy the game because they can play it on here instead because there are tournaments world wide that use the board. This site is more of a major advertisement to a game that isn't terribly well-known. Hasbro has no need to move on this, or any other site, as long as it continues on the way it has. - : Re: The Octopus
I think it's ludacrous to give St Pete to England. That's like me asking him to give Edinburgh to me so that he doesn't build fleets close to my home. If I'm going to negotiate with England as Russia, I have no problem giving him German centers while I take Scandinavian ones, or even giving him Scandinavian centers in exchange for control of German centers that I occupy with armies, but giving up a home center isn't something I'd consider. - : Re: The Octopus
I've won with the opening before, although lately, it's been causing me more trouble than it's worth. It's a pretty solid opening under the right circumstances. I often feel that Russia's place is in the east initially. It's often hard to garner the idea that you need Sweden when you've got 2 units in the north. Germany and England are often hostile about it. Also, if things go sour in the south, having 2 units north means that you're burning on both ends.
It seems to me that it's best to inform several nations of the 2 north idea before hand and ensure that they're ok with it. As long as a western nation is willing to work with you, then the move is fine, but if no one likes it, then it's a death trap.
Generally, though, I prefer three southern units and a northern build when needed, - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
A09: My overall thoughts on this were that things went pretty much the way I anticipated they would with F/G/R but I and T had some things that really surprised me. More to come below.
#1 Germany: This becomes the trouble with striking everyone around you and then hoping to find a friend in the mix. France has clear aspirations on continuing the assault and since he's made headway into Ruhr, you've got trouble. As Germany, the only way to stalemate France and get him to do what you want is to make sure his armies stay west of the Bel(or Hol)/Ruh/Mun line. It requires 3 units for either country to maintain adequate control, which given the fact that you had 10, supplying 3 for the cause wouldn't have been much of an effort to keep F out. Now, as it stands, you'll really have to try to guess at the kind of player France's TA is in order to determine what will happen next because you've got a lot of places to strike, with critical locations at Lon, NTH, and Mun to say the least and others include the IRI. The loss of Holland will give France another unit to move against you, and you're losing the naval advantage by moving so much against Russia. I believe that you'll continue to fall apart, but having a net gain in this season could change things. It's possible that you'll remain even while losing key areas at home. I also don't expect that your top position will be maintained much after this year. In terms of your fight against R to the east, you've got additional tremendous pressure that will cause you to have to overextend yourself this next season. Overthinking things will be a real problem. I will try not to post too much here because I don't want to influence things too much in my commentary but the end-game is beginning to take shape and your part in it is less and less viewable.
#2 France: A very nice last season for you and you have beautiful sights set for the next. Breaching the stalemate line along your western border will pay dividends. One word of warning, however, is something similar to what we saw with other countries in the past. Remember that getting too greedy in centers could mean problems maintaining what you currently are getting. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. As it is, your moves this last season were easily the best on the map and I guarantee that you'll have more coming in the years to come.
#3/4 Russia and Turkey: These two have done a pretty solid job as a paired Juggernaut and the trust has been pretty instrumental.
Russia: Losing St Pete is a rather unavoidable circumstance. It's the easiest location to lose and if a western power wants it bad enough, there's not much you can do to stop them from taking it. Your military presence in other key areas, however, is a really nice touch. What you do with the fleet in the north could indicate some things and currently, it's giving you some extra flexibility. I also don't expect you to get Berlin this season but I'm pretty certain that you'll be camping in it in the next. Start thinking about the unit you'll be disbanding this season because it's not going to be an easy choice.
Turkey: Not a bad flow of moves for you. Trieste was a pretty nice steal, although I'm often dubious about how secure it is when someone else has to help make sure you keep it. You're still too dependent on Russian assistance at this stage and that's always a potentially fatal spot to be in. You'll come out even again this season but with possibly better footing depending on what you choose to do this season. The build left over from the disband will help out but it's unfortunately coming in at home a full year from combat. This will continue to slow you down while you're hammering Italy.
#5 Italy: Not a terrible year. I love the spot you've put Turkey in with the loss of Greece. You've been slowing Turkey down for quite a while and he's done nothing for 3 full years. Continue to hang in there, the game isn't over. You've really shown one of Italy's biggest strengths in terms of its defensive capability. Had a few things been different in prior seasons, you'd be sitting pretty nicely. It's also still possible to turn this game into a 4-way with you involved but don't neglect negotiations. If you're not talking much to the board, you should be.
Things to look for: Does Germany gain or break even this year? This will determine the strength his opponents have going into next season. Also, the Russian disband could mean some things. I'm pretty certain I know the unit he'll want to disband but it's different than the one I think he should select, but it's still early to tell. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Sorry all, I tried posting to the SoW last night but my internet went down due to incomming storms. I've got some minutes right now so I'll put it together. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1 EoG's
I talk a ton as well in most games, which is why I believe I do pretty well at this game. My comments to Italy on detecting a ruse were similar but rather 'raw' with some examples. It included details such as:
--When a player brings up information too early: Some people enjoy talking about alliances far too early. For example, France or England talking to Italy about long-term alliances in 1901 or 1902 are generally empty words because in 1902 they can't be sure that they'll have the ability to turn on a prior ally or even if they will. Often, the players who mention alliances early have pretty good intentions because they want to keep you on friendly terms but this type of talk should be considered false until proven. The best way to ensure these types of agreements are by simply laying down ground rules. This might include not building units in a certain location or units of a specific type in that location, not moving units into DMZ'd areas or simply limiting the number of units in a given region. It might be permissible for Italy to allow France to build a fleet in Mar if he leaves the MAO empty on the prior fall, only docking fleets in Spa nc, or not building 3 units in a given turn. Be up front with what you expect out of someone so that their talk of "alliance" doesn't become a red herring to a stab.
Sometimes people like to try to get you to target another player that's unreasonable to target early. For example Austria asking Russia to move against England, or Turkey asking Italy to attack France. This is fine and dandy if there's a Western Triple but it's suicide in other cases and sometimes someone will try to get you to attack someone they border but might not back you up in the assault or they might help out while allowing another neighbor of yours to slip in and stab your flank. Sometimes it's a genuine request, othertimes it's not and it's always something to be careful of.
--Something they say doesn't make sense: If a player says something that just doesn't make sense (and I don't mean logically) or if something is 'too good to be true' then it's probably a ruse. This might include someone asking you to move your units a certain way that exposes your flank without giving a reason, or even a very good one. An example might include Turkey asking Austria to attack Italy while he goes after Russia or France telling Italy that he needs to keep his fleet in the MAO while building a unit in Marseilles. Other examples include someone offering to empty locations along center zones like Scandinavia or the Balkans (ie: Russia telling Italy to move his units out of the Balkans while he does the same so that they can use their units more effectively against another foe). This is often a ruse and a good set of checks to this are by asking yourself a few questions:
a) does he control more units near your centers than you do or are his units the same distance from your centers as yours or closer?
b) how many enemies does he have or how many other people does he have to focus on?
By asking yourself these questions ahead of time, they can help you gauge whether or not a stab might take place. If his units are the same distance away from your centers as yours and he's asking you to move further away while he does the same, then it could be a trick. If his units are within the distance it takes for him to move to your centers by the end of the year, then you need to be careful by vacating it. Secondly, if he has no real enemies, then he's looking to attack someone and it could be you. If he's asking you to do something that's too good to be true or something ridiculous, then think twice before doing it. A good understanding is that "the guy with no friends is never your enemy" and "the guy with no enemies is never your friend". If someone has no friends, then they're looking desperately for an ally and they're far far less likely to lie to you because they want someone to help them out in a pinch. Conversely, if someone has no real enemies or threats, then they aren't much of an ally and they're far more likely to lie to you.
--Style and frequency of comm: If someone isn't talking much to you or when they do, they're vague in their plans, then they might be planning a stab. Don't ally with a guy who doesn't talk at all and try not to ally with the guy who doesn't talk much. Assume that everyone talks frequently with their allies. If someone's not talking to you very much, it might mean that their time is spent communicating with someone else. People who talk a lot, are detailed in what they want or what they're thinking are much easier to ally with.
Most people won't directly and outrightly lie to you. Some will, but they're the minority, and the best players who do it, do it only a few times a game and make each lie count. The majority, however, try to be vague when they're about to stab. They use deceiving comments instead of outright lies. It might include statements like"I might try to ____, will you____?". This type of statement is vague in that the player *might* try to do what they're saying but they might not also. It's not technically a lie so you can't call them a liar but it is deceptive. It's safe to assume that most of the time someone sends this type of press to you that they're planning on stabbing now or soon.
--Time stamps: This does a wonderful job of telling you when people are on and when they last logged on. You can detect ruses by looking at the time stamps. For example, if you send someone a message, then log off only to log back on and see that they didn't respond, look at the last time they were on. If they were on since the time you sent that message and didn't reply, then something's up. After all, they spent that time talking to someone and it clearly wasn't you. I check time stamps so frequently that I don't even notice when I do it unless something is out of place. Also, of someone logs on and finalizes moves before talking to you, or even if they send comm but finalize before receiving a response, then it often means that they're banking on a certain alliance, especially early in the game. This could very easily be an attack in the works.
--"I forgot": Lastly, you're better off not believing when someone tells you they're going to do something and then when they don't, they use the following language: "I forgot to___", "I swear I submitted different orders", "I accidentally___". Unless the moves hurt them more than they hurt you, they're probably lying. You'll find that this type of talk occurs more frequently the lower on the GR scale you go because vets know that someone else won't buy it, and I'm sure you know to doubt this kind of language, but it needs to be said anyhow. Additionally, sometimes you'll get people that tell you they'll do one thing but do another and then explain their actions away. This often occurs during build phases or fall phases when they promise to do something but renege. Some players assume it's better to do something and then explain it later, but that's only true in FtF games. People can talk during retreat phases, build phases and at any time. Additionally, they have 24-hours or more to let you know about a change of plans and there's no reason to not have done it. Time isn't usually a problem and not letting you know they're changing their mind is usually indicative of a stab in the works.
Also @MM: When TA'ing for Italy in S01, I had him going through profiles (which he didn't do) and I noticed that in a vast majority of your games as England, you see 2 builds in 1901 at Norway and Belgium. What's your key to doing this? I've found that people are pretty reluctant to wanting to give it to me when I'm playing. I've even had games recently where both parties stated they would see me in but it was clear they were lying to me and I found myself being assaulted by F/G/R. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Ouch, a disband in Ruhr. This can only mean one of two things... - : Re: On the beautiful game of Diplomacy #3
@red: If your game has a 7 center Russia starting 1902, then several countries on the map are being retarded. Plus, Russia would be the enemy, but that wouldn't change once Russia is reduced to 5 or so centers. People would continue to pummel him and divide his land. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
2 days and 11 hours to go before the next commentary - : Re: On the beautiful game of Diplomacy #3
+ 3/4 Marti
I *strongly* disagree with the idea that the natural game would end in a 7-way draw. The reason is rather simple. because of the dynamics of the game, it is broken down into two spheres of influence, for better or for worse. Since the "magic number" is 18 centers, no one even begins to worry about a lead player until someone has about 10 to 12 centers. No singular power can achieve this number without a country being eliminated. If every player has the "every man for himself", it's ludacrous to stop attacking a player that you've been targeting simply to switch your focus on someone else because they're up a center. Even growth is a natural desire but can easily be achieved between two countries in the same sphere to the point where a country is eliminated.
The natural game will lead to a 4-way or 5-way draw because two powers will inevitably eliminate a third power in each sphere leaving 5 countries remaining. This will lead to possible further whittling because growth can still be even but the number of powers capable of influencing each other is a bit stronger. - : Re: Congratulations!
I can't say I recall those types of threads either. Although I've been on the site for about 3 years, I didn't participate much in the first year or so. I get the feeling that people are just now beginning to recognize my name around here. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
F08: Very nice turn of events for a few countries. Others are seeing the beginning of a struggle.
#1 Germany: A very tentative position, now having to lose a center and facing an encroaching Russian. I also strongly disagree with the series of holds along the west. A Ruh--holds, A Hol--holds, A Mun--holds. This is one of two things: (a) a very poor choice of orders or (b) an attempt to secure a French ally while you move eastward.
To discuss--(a) if this is merely holds assuming that France was only going to hold, it's a pretty poor choice of orders. It assumes that France will simply support holds across the board without making any daring attempt to make progress across the line. Second, it gives F a lot of opportunity to do anything to screw your game, and he clearly did by forcing you to disband a unit that you're not going to want to lose. At this stage in the game, a country needs to be solidly growing or preparing for a draw.
(b) Securing a French ally--I'm really hoping that this is what it's meant to be, but I'm still dubious with the showing made by France to cut support in the NTH. France won't be bought so easily, especially in light of the unit difference between you and second place. It's certainly a difficult thing to stab an ally, fight against him for the next few years, turn on someone else and then attempt to patch things up with the guy you stabbed years ago, especially when he makes a rebound and snags one of your centers. It's not impossible but certainly requires the right bit of conversation and some promises that will be difficult to deliver.
These aren't the only issues you've got going right now, either. Another move I wish would have been different is the support order by the NTH. A better move would have been to convoy London to Edi with the NTH and support with Lvp. Diplomacy has only a few different moves, but many of them are overlooked because they're not the norm, and these types of uncharacteristic moves are stronger than the more common ones. The first is when defending, using units to cut supports instead of issuing support holds because where a support hold can be cut, a move to cut support cannot be. The second is what's seen here. Convoying and supporting the convoy is sometimes better than using the fleet to support a move, because again, it cannot be cut, it has to be dislodged.
Another issue that you'll have to face that while you're making some progress at St Pete, you'll have to deal with the fact that Russia (a) has a build coming and (b) has a back door hole to your home centers that will cause you to possibly have to decide whether to defend against the French or defend against the Russian--a situation that no one likes to be in. I'm guessing that you'll begin reassessing your situation and reducing the amount of pressure you're facing which may or may not happen. For disbands, I expect that it will be an army from the English Isle or the fleet in the Gulf of Bothnia.
#2 Russia: Pulling ahead a bit, you've begun to out class some of the other nations. This next year will be a make-or-break year for you with Germany staring St Pete down but you've also got him in a tense spot. Depending on the German disband, it could mean the difference between a bumpy ride and a smooth one. I don't have anything negative to say about the moves and in the long run, the net you a build coming in at St Pete. You've got a pretty good alley for your units to begin moving but be careful and don't over extend yourself or you'll find yourself back to the point of disbanding in the next few years. For builds, I predict an army. A fleet would be helpful, but only in the north. The army is the only thing that makes sense.
#3 France: Huge leap for you this last season, you had a really good series of moves. I especially enjoyed the fleet cutting support at the NTH which gave you +1 unit from the German center coupled with a -1 unit for your enemy. Anytime you get this kind of outcome, it's a total win. Second, I also have to congratulate you on giving your southern fleet the ability to begin joining the fight. You'll have the opportunity to either join along the German once again or cross the stalemate line for further progress but either way you'll see some progress. I also like Bur-Bel with Pic support. It was a gamble where Germany could have supported himself into Burgundy, but it was a gamble that would still mean that you maintain the Bel build, and a move that I would have issued as well because the benefits outweigh the risks. For builds, I'm certain that you'll have a fleet at Brest coming in.
#4 Turkey: Stalemated for another season, things are looking bleak. Eventually the tide will break but it's unclear whether it will break soon enough to make a difference. I'm sure you're toying with the notion of turning on Russia and working with the Italian but a bigger part of you wants to continue working with Russia because you fear the outcome of switching sides. I'm not sure what your future would hold but in the season to come, I'd be finding a means to guarantee myself a build, because not getting a build for another year could mean rough things in a game that shifts like shadows under a flickering candlelight.
#5 Italy: Not a horrid year, but by no means a comfortable one. You played things safe, which is understandable, but to some degree, it could have been avoided. I have the fear that next year you'll lose another center and opponents will be moving in on you even more. It's time you found an ally and not merely neutral players to surround yourself with. Last season, if I were to have changed anything with orders issued, I would have opted to use Budapest to attack Vienna and support with Trieste. As I said, I understand the more defensive moves, but this would have forced Russia to possibly lose Vie in lieu of gaining Bud (as here) but the moves by R and T should inidicate the level of cooperation between the two, something that could be played on in the near future. Not having to worry about disbands could be a blessing in that it gives you more opportunity to foucs on press with the other nations to try to turn the series of events you've been facing.
Things to look for: What happens with Germany next year will determine the fates of the rest of the map to a considerable degree. Italy losing ground last season means that R has some momentum but I can't necessarily say the same for T. part of the 'breaking apart of Italy' was the possibility of T getting into Alb which didn't happen and T could be getting a bit frustrated at the slow progress. Depending on what happens with G, some of that frustration could change things, even for him so far away. - : Re: This Map Needs More People
I didn't put anything on Jacob's "dot" that wasn't already public information that you couldn't get through a google search. - : Re: Young-Earth Creationism
I believe in creationism but I also read the early chapters of Genesis a little differently because the word "begat" or means "is the ancestor of" in hebrew and so there could be several generations between between what we perceive to be father and son under a literal translation. This type of gapping is seen in Matthew's account of the lineage of Christ where several names are ommitted and only the important people are listed. Matthew did this for math reasons (hence the "14 generations...14 generations...14 generations) Thus, there could be dozens of generations between one name and another.
Just another thought to put out there. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1 EoG's
no rhinoceros yet, eh? - : Re: This Map Needs More People
Pretty nasty scar MM - : Re: This Map Needs More People
I'm pretty close to Draugnar and Smiley. I'll post Jacob on the map for everyone who knows him too. - : Re: This Map Needs More People
Geez, this thing is taking its sweet time placing my marker. Guess the map can't handle this much ninja. - : Re: As G, what do you tell R about Sweden in S01?
It depends on what I want. I always negotiate Sweden for one of a few things. Most often, it's a protective device for Austria (temporary anyhow). I also use it as an alliance tool. I am to the point now that I less frequently bounce him there unless there's good reason to believe that he is working with England and/or France in the north or isn't doing what I need him to do in the south. - : Re: Well its time to come clean. Im actually a multi of MadMarx.
Apparently the new policy is to drag multi's out of their homes, smash their fingers with bricks and then piss on their computers. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Guess it's time to put in some S08 thoughts. There were quite a number of unfortunate blunders in this last season and these were made by several countries which could have some very adverse effects in the coming season(s).
#1 Germany: Very bizairre movements that show that you're pretty comfortable taking on two countries at one time. I think you'll find that you're biting off more than you can chew, even with Italy's help. The post I gave to Turkey in the prior season is equally applicable to you, as well. Russia has the capacity to hold you off if he wants, and France will continue to apply pressure from the other side and if Italy moves in from the south, then you're in some real trouble. The goal anyone should have is to limit themselves to only 1 enemy at any given time. This allows you to maintain your focus to one area until it is necessary to change direction. Clearly, there's some worry about the flowing Juggernaut, but the fear should be less than what it currently is since Russia has backed out of your region and remained clear. In addition, it will still be some time before Italy falls. I really hope that the decision to attack Russia was born out of a R/T fear rather than the opportunity to snag a center or two. I would not have moved on Russia at this stage, but rather filled gaps in my defenses, secured Edi for a build, and not lost anything to France. After the next build, it would have been better to take France down a notch (or get into position to be able to) and then take on Russian centers. A move this early might cost you in the long run. Second, I really expected the fleet to move west so that the NTH could move in behind France so that you'd gain some very clear centers in the years to come. Instead, you moved it in the completely opposite direction to focus your attention in things that didn't really matter quite yet. Your fleet could have been used to breach the stalemate between you and France but instead it turned out to open the gates and let France in. I don't believe you'll be seeing any builds in the coming year, but I must say, the moves will wind up relieving pressure from Italy. Last, what's with the hold in the NTH? This could have meant that France could have used the Channel to support a move from Picardy to Belgium and that would have succeeded, but now, with the hold order, you've lost valuable ground with nothing to show for it except for the gain in Edi to keep you neutral.
#2-4: We still have 3 countries in the mix that need to produce results, one way or another.
Russia: Rough spot, but not a terrible situation. The biggest problem I have with your movements last season is that darn army in Ukraine doing nothing. The hold order means that a) you trusted Turkey to back out of danger zones completely when he could have moved himself into two of your centers putting a real hurt on you, b) there's now a gap in your defenses that has Budapest with the ability to get into some really sensitive areas and c) now with the attack from Germany, it's going to have to be dedicated to covering Warsaw so that things don't continue to go sour. As a general rule, I feel that if you can order a unit to do something, it should do something. The other problem I have with your moves is that Turkey might not make any ground in the following year or two and this type of non-movement many times results in a change of sides. If Italy can stalemate Turkey for an entire year, he could conceivably convince him to turn on you instead. It's a possibility that you might go down a center this year. Hopefully next year will be a little more kind to you.
Turkey: More of a front-runner than the other two nations, your biggest issues are the flip-flopping that caused you to lose a year of momentum and that you're facing a really well-wedged Italian that might not let you out anywhere soon. The biggest benefit that you have is that you are also well-wedged and have the least fear of losing units in the coming years. This season is going to come down to a guessing game to try to get a leg up on Italy. I still don't see a build for you this year, if it comes from Italian soil, but you may be in a better spot in the next.
Italy: You had some give and take in centers this season and to some degree I really like the spot you're in. You've got Germany putting pressure on Russia in the north and you've got an army in a really great spot that could wind up retreating to anywhere. On the flip-side, you've got an entirely exposed northern border. In your situation, I'd have rather had a unit in Greece than Budapest but I certainly can't complain about where you're sitting. Things could go either way for the results in this next season meaning that you could either remain steady or lose and if you do lose, you could lose a little or lose a lot. Good luck to you in the next year.
#5 France: Not a bad spot and out of everyone on the map, I expect you to be in the best spot in the coming year from where you came out this year. You look to be gaining some traction. Too bad you didn't move with Pic and support with the Channel. Your move was a gamble and if G had moved to the Channel to cut support, you'd be back-pedaling just to maintain control of what you currently have. As such, kudos to actually getting somewhere and turning around things for the positive. I expect you to come out ahead at the end of this year with a build.
Things to look for: If Italy loses ground this season, it will mean that some things will begin to break apart. Italy's losing ground will likely mean that he will lose control of some vital areas rather than losing centers, but these losses are often morale-boosters that allow opponents to stay the course. Also, if Germany gains centers, things could continue to look ugly. - : Re: New Ghost-Ratings up
meh, up 1 spot for 1 finished game. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
no worries here. I'm not really complaining and I don't really have much stake in the game itself, merely the commentary. Take your time and get back to it when you're ready. - : Re: Anyone heard from fortknox?
Hmm...this thread got way off base. Since I'm in 2 games with FK, I recommend that if we don't hear from him within the next couple of days, we temporarily replace him until he returns or the games end.
I hope he's ok. He was dropping back on press for the week prior to having to go to the hospital. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1 EoG's
I was hoping to hear from rhinoceros. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I'd bump this thread but I'm too lazy. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Aag! Another pause... - : Re: Face to Face
Too north for my ability to travel. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Ahhh, fleet in Kiel. I like the call. - : Re: What are some of your favorite (mainly little-known, short-run) comics series?
Nice to see another oots fan out there :)
Sad to see his comic series slow waaaaaay down. plus the plot has been dragging by for an eon. - : Re: Face to Face
There was talk of having an annual FtF. The next one was talked about (there's a past thread out there somewhere) and will likely happen spring or summer of 2012.
A forum thread will be posted to take up names of participants. I'd also like to eventually get one in BG Kentucky. - : Re: What are some of your favorite (mainly little-known, short-run) comics series?
Order of the Stick
Teen Girl Squad or Trogdor - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
F07: Very little happened this season, which is a big sigh of relief for several nations. There also appears to be some shifting in who is working with who (expected based on the spring moves). Only one country is down a unit while one country is up a unit but overall it was pretty even-kill.
#1 Germany: Very good movements this last season by playing it safe and taking the lone build instead of stretching yourself beyond capacity to hope for a second. The continued retreat of Russia proved beneficial but with your advances it could mean that you're taking on a bit more than you can chew. Along the west, you're back into a struggle and seeing why I consider France as one of what I've dubbed the P3 countries (Russia, Turkey, France - the three most powerful on the map in terms of win and draw percentages). France has this ability to survive and cut off enemies from advancing and without an appropriate naval force to go behind the English Island, facing him head on could take years to make progress. Clearly, with Russia embroiled in a turn of events in the east, you'll have some decisions to make and I believe your builds will answer that question (although I won't go into detail about this for fairness-sake). I can see next year turning up an additional build (highly likely), possibly two (much less likely) and you're beginning to face a similar situation that Russia faced several years ago, although your situation is a little different in that I think you'll pull through quite a bit easier. For builds, I primarily anticipate an army in Berlin but a fleet in Kiel certainly isn't out of the question. There will definitely *not* be an army build in Kiel.
The second, third and fourth spots on the board are rather muddled. I try to place myself in each player's situation as if I was going to take over the country and decide where I'd rather be and where I'd rather not be. Any of the following countries could be in any order and so I'm going to list them all as tied for 2nd through 4th position and simply point out reasons why.
#2-4 Russia: Of all the countries in the cropping, I'm most hesitant to put you at #2 because your proverbial boat is beginning to take on water. Italy hasn't backed off, Turkey is making an about-face and Germany is on the fence. If the three of them continue in the path they're on, it will spell a breakdown for your country. The biggest downfall is that you haven't had a recent build which makes you a prime target for assault. Your biggest weakness, however, is that you've got a ton of holes in your defenses. What started to look nice turned sour the moment one of your armies moved into Silesia and it was continued when you backed units away from centers along your Turkish border where he had armies stationed. This means that Rumania, Sevastopol, Warsaw and St Pete are all hot spots that need to be tied down, and Russia is the sort of country that could be likened to a glass sword (rather thick glass). While you're cutting down your opponents, you're a fearful thing to be up against and cuts you make are swift and lethal but once you begin to break apart, it's nearly impossible to patch back together again. Although things are tense right now, you've still got things that you can negotiate on and I expect that you'll pull out whatever you can to make sense of some things. I'm curious about what you were planning with Bohemia. The army could have been moved to Tyrolia to apply more pressure or back to Silesia to return home but moving to Vienna doesn't make a lot of sense. I understand that it was likely to cut support from an Italian move to Budapest, but if the move to Rumania would have been successful, Italy would have been in Bud any way you cut it. As it was, this year was probably more of a sigh of relief than a bad note and I think that if you plan your moves well next year that you won't be out anything.
Italy: A big part of me could see you in the #2 spot but some of me wants to see you in the #3 spot. You've managed to produce a neutral Turk (or maybe helpful one) and now are looking at a positive future. You have a nice tight front line (barring Tyrolia) and if things go really well for you, you might be in Budapest this time next year. The biggest down side to your situation is that things are still really tense in the east. By now, two individuals should have really been working solidly together and I'm still not seeing that. On the biggest bright side, the sky is the limit right now for you in terms of allies. Turkey has backed off showing that he wants to work with you but when he hit Russia, he gave R a good reason to begin to work with you and of all the positions, I envy that aspect the most.
Turkey: A very strange set of moves this last year, ones that I'm not entirely sure I agree with. The move to Arm tipped off a potential stab and caused Russia to guard himself against the possible threat and it prevented you from coming away with something positive. In addition, you made a choice to take from Italy and then try to take from Russia and thus you have both hands in two different cookie jars--something that no one likes. I'd love to be able to say that backing off Italy was the best choice but I can't say that because it means that you give Russia and Italy a reason to work with each other and retake land you had stolen and are trying to steal from them. My advice is often to take on only one enemy at a time and if you're going to take on two opponents, then you need to count your units, then count theirs. You ought to have more units than the both of them combined. Here's the reason:
Part of a good offense is having a good defense (John Madden) and at any given time, you cannot devote 100% of your units to attacking. Some are out of the combat but advancing (newly built units, for example), some are holding a border or keeping peace between you and a neighbor, and some are attacking an enemy. It's usually true that you can devote anywhere between 40% and 60% of your units to gaining new soil. In your situation, this is 4 units while two simply maintain what you currently have. Anytime someone is defending, they can devote anywhere between 30% and 100% of their units to defense and if your 60% attacking is equal to their combined defenders, then you can afford to attack two people at once. If not, it will only spell bad news for you if you try to flip-flop between someone as an enemy and someone as an ally. Often when you switch up a relationship, gaining an enemy as an ally often comes with a bribe of sorts (ie: "I know I took 'x' from you. I'll return it immediately if you help me into 'y'). It's more of a peace-offering than anything, but in your situation, I'm not seeing that. I'm simply seeing that you took Serbia and Greece and then backed off. I believe that this will spell problems in your near future. For builds, I expect to see a fleet in Smyrna. I won't go into why simply because this is a public post. I don't anticipate an army in Ankara but a fleet there is a possibility since the Black Sea will be a clear target in the spring.
#5 France: The loss of a unit is to be expected but I must say that I love the convoy. This gives you the ability to choose which unit to disband instead of giving your opponent the choice. You're still not out and your position is like a deeply rooted tree stump and you're not going to be pried out easily. There was a situation I was in playing as France quite a long time ago that I like to use to encourage French players in a similar situation as you're facing now. I was playing against stiff competition and found myself without allies and fighting a 3-front war against Germany, England and Italy. Germany had broken the line much like is in your situation and England was threatening Brest while Italy was bouncing all over the place in the south. I sent repeated messages to England and Italy suing for peace and managed to hold them off until they saw that they wouldn't make progress. I later talked one of them into neutrality and one of them into an alliance and by the game's end I was the person taking part in a draw while I saw the elimination of two of my aggressors. That ability to survive against all "odds" is what will help you now. If you can continue to hold the line and stalemate your opponent long enough, help will come. It could be in the form of an Italian fleet or even two eastern powers who want a place in a draw instead of nice survival positions, but eventually it will come. How much of you is left when that time comes is to be determined. For this season, I believe we'll see a disband at Brest.
England: The game has finally gotten you to move. Although you'll be out pretty soon, you could still play a vital role in the survival of another country. It's also entirely possible (albeit slim) that you could manage to hang on to another center, but it won't be Edi.
Things to look for: The east is still a hot bed of tension and this time it's up to Italy to decide the fates of the 3 nations involved in a pendulum style "alliance" structure. - : Re: taking over CD's only to be attacked
I agree with both sides of the argument. I've taken over CD countries 3 times. Twice I came away with a win because I take over games where the CD'd country had a strong position and then left the map. Once, however, I was dealt a survival because the game had 4 countries remaining: me (playing Russia), France England and Italy. Italy was moving for the solo and France wouldn't stab him for anything to force the draw but he continued to pummel England even though the guy was going to help force the draw.
For the record, I'm done taking over CD positions as a general rule as well because I don't know the nature of the players in the games and France was the biggest idiot I've ever encountered to give someone the solo instead of taking a draw.
I do tend to agree with swordsman, though, because it's a ridiculous notion to have someone ask you to take over a CDing country only to attack them outright, unless they were already attacking you or they stab you later in the game. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Thanks a ton Yonni.
@BG: I'm surprised you're still "alive" too, although a bit disappointed that you haven't done anything outside of hold orders (if you can call that living). I've heard stories of people that were reduced to 1 unit and came back for the win (Edi). You've had opportunities to work with France and Russia up until this point and passed it by. I'm not trying to be a jerk but simply pointing out on the missed possibilities you've had so that you can learn from them. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Thanks C. I appreciate it :) - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
bump? back to being the only prof? - : Re: October Ghostratings...
I just had a draw last month. My game quantity has been rather lax since the semester hit in full swing. Too much to keep up with. I'm just trying to make sure I finish at least 1 per month to keep GR going. - : Re: classic western triple
Triples...barf. Not a fan. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1 EoG's
bump, hmm? - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1
i started a new thread to make finding and reading the posts easier. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
A07: Several "not so grand" moves made this an interesting year. I had really expected to see the map in a new light, but it just goes to show that not everything is what it appears.
#1 Germany: Sealing the top spot on the map for a long time, I have to give a big congrats to the German player and his TA on this one. You'll have at least one more build coming at the end of this season as it looks like all of the threats you saw last season have since vanished. The very surprising retreat by the Russian and the French all-holds have set you into a really nice spot whether the game ends sooner or later. Either way, I'd be willing to bet a hefty share of diplomacy points to bet you'll take the top spot in any draw that would occur from here on out. My philosophy on draws has changed over the years and my initial belief was that draws were for those that can't win. I now see them as a different kind of positive end and in many cases are just as good as a win--if you end with the top spot on the map. Many tournaments are based on draw placement and the guy who draws on top does well for himself. The question now, is whether or not to try for the solo. Clearly, if this is the case, there will be some manipulation going on behind the scenes. If everything continues to go straight-forward, I expect to see a draw but with the German player out front. In terms of a French campaign, I still expect to see it in the future and with yet another build coming, it'll make it easier to gain ground.
#2 Russia: Not sure what was talked about last season but clearly you were uncomfortable with something that you saw. You went from having a really nice spot to simply having a jumble of units in really strange positions. Not that you're caught with your pants down in a stab, but certainly the retreat from German soil is going to change some things going forward. I'm also not entirely sure what Rum-Ukr is really all about. I've mentioned it before just prior to a French stab and I'll mention it here: it's generally a good rule of thumb to hold the idea that you don't want anyone else's units closer or as close to your centers as you are. This is usually a precursor to a stab. Remember the adage "good fences make good neighbors" and in this game, it's that good borders make good neighbors. On a side note, you'll probably secure Vienna this year which will net you a much needed build but you'll have some eyeballing going on with an out-of-place Turkish army in a rather sensitive area.
#3 Turkey: You're in a pretty sweet spot although I'm not sure what the Smy-Arm move was all about. It certainly doesn't build bridges but then again, not seeing press in these types of situations makes making assumptions a rather poor choice. I suspect that you may not have a build this year but depending on how things turn out, you might get one after all. Only the fall moves will tell. I suspect that this year will be about position. Love the fleet-shifting. A bit expected, but since it was completely successful, you deserve kudos. Not the way I'd have done it either, but I can't complain. You're successfully out of the box and free to roam and I'm guessing that the breath of fresh air tastes like none you've ever had before.
#4 France: The number 4 spot was a tough one to call. I'm not sure what to make of your position or Italy's either. On the one hand, Germany was forced to back off a bit and you won't lose any centers this year but on the flip side, you're still without an ally and you submitted all holds this season. Again, I'm not sure what type of diplomacy is going on behind the scenes but holding and supporting holds with all of your units did absolutely nothing. By now, in your situation, I'd have pooled all my efforts into working with Italy and I'd have been pressing the English Island awfully hard. All holds simply makes your opponent's job easier and I can only hope that Germany sent you some press along the lines of being friends again for you to submit those kind of moves. You've still got a season left before you're back under more pressure but I don't see a lot of great things in store. Hopefully the fall will see you with a little more life because I really expected you to be doing better at this point, and as I mentioned earlier, for as hard as you worked in the first half of the game, you really deserve a better spot.
#5 Italy: As I posted in the French commentary, this spot was hard to call. To the plus, you did more than France this last season but to the negative, you'll probably lose a center this season. A lot of your moves were expected and I'll state that part of the reason you're in this spot isn't entirely your fault but I chalk a lot of it up to 1) not keeping tabs on the board and 2) predictable movement. This season was really predictable and it allowed Turkey to filter in some of his fleets so that you now risk the possible loss of either Trieste or the Ionian (but it's not a guarantee). In this type of situation, you have to begin thinking outside the box. Diplomacy has a lot to do with knowing your opponent and the game comes down to one of two things:
A) Is your opponent a straight-thinker. What this means is, how does your opponent get from one goal to another. Does he move in a bee-line path straight for it or does he take his time and jockey for a better position? If he makes bee-line moves, he's pretty predictable and simple supports will work. Many players at the beginner level and intermediate level have this type of play style. In veteran games, however, and among top players, many will take their time and move in a way they know is a little more secure and sound even if it doesn't get them something right up front. Sometimes it's better to take a non center zone that will get you into a better position before making the strike.
B) How does your opponent think? This has to do more with meta-cognition. Many players will simply attack without trying to 'out-think' their opponents. This is very true at the elementary level and fairly true at the intermediate level. Some opponents try to anticipate your movements and move accordingly. Some anticipate that you're going to be a pretty straight-forward mover (the bee-line type from above) and will move pretty simply. Others, however, will attempt to anticipate your moves based on a plethora of possibilities and make their moves based on the way they think you'll move.
The best players in your situation, will begin to anticipate what their opponent is anticipating that you'll do and move to counter based on their counter-movements. From here on, this is what you're going to have to do, if you can do it at all. This type of thinking isn't without its risks and anticipating incorrectly can spell disaster but when it's correct, then you essentially control your opponent instead of him controlling you.
You're not out of it yet, and I'd say there's still a chance that you won't lose anything this year but based on what I've seen, I still think you'll lose a center, but not at all likely two. Diplomacy will be the key to get you out of your situation.
Things to look for: Turkey is going to be the primary key in this next season. A lot could happen depending on what goes down. I don't want to get a whole lot into it yet, but I might have a ton to say next season. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I'd already commented on where I thought builds would be. They were pretty much right on. Were the builds particularly strange to you? If so, I don't mind commenting, otherwise I'll leave them alone. - : Re: Playdiplomacy.com
It's that it has nothing to do with playing the actual game. Viewing the statistics for the site are more site-related than game-related. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1 EoG's
Well, I failed to remember to get the txt file from my home computer and I'm back on campus. I'll post the general long and short of my Italian play style and things I suggested to rhinoceros. I'll also post some final comments to him publicly here as well.
How I play Italy (for better or worse):
I find that Italy is a unique country and although in my statistical report I state rather confidently that it is far more an eastern power than a western power, it's stake in the east is far different than the other 3 countries that occupy that sphere of influence. Italy's strengths lie in part to this relationship. It's primary strengths, however, is that it is difficult to dominate. In 1901 and even into 1902, it's not the target of any real attacks. France is often occupied in the west, Turkey is covered by Austria and Russia while Austria could attack him, it's often at the expense of giving up territory in the Balkans and turns its back to the R/T which would be often fatal. Thus, Italy sits on a peninsula by itself, and can't really be the target of an effective attack early on. In addition to this, it is virtually impossible to attack the country by land. Since it's stalemated at Piedmont due to the presence of impassable Switzerland to the west, the French cannot hope to take control via land from the west and from the east, only two available land positions can launch an assault making it slow-going at best. Therefore, the only real way to take on Italy is with naval dominance. Unfortunately, its defensive nature plays to its detriment as well. Italy's only real location for guaranteed gains is in Tunis with potentials in Austrian territory and hazy gains in France. All too often, an Italian player takes Tunis, doesn't want to attack Austria, and sits idle for years to come until another powerful force overpowers an eastern country and takes Italy head-on.
In 1901, Italy has the benefit of being 'neutral'. It's often best to do nothing and plan nothing. Your goal is to play the detective in this first year--dig up anything you can about everyone else on the map. You need to know who is allied with who early on so that you can plan your moves. Most importantly, however, you need to just sit and be patient. Don't talk to other people first and simply wait until they come to you. The first part on being a detective in determining alliances is to wait to see who talks to you. If you initiate conversation, it's often going to be a series of questions which the other player will answer vaguely at best:
"Hello Russia! What's the plan in 1901? Care to attack Austria or Turkey? Is there going to be a bounce in the Black Sea?"
"Greetings Italy, my plans are simply to figure everyone out. I don't have any real plans set yet and will wait until I hear from others first. I'm also not sure about the BS yet."
These types of conversations yield little to nothing. Remember that Italy has the ability to do nothing in the first year and still be successful, and since you have no real enemies, not talking to someone right off isn't detrimental. Wait for them to come to you. If a player comes to you, (a) it shows that they're interested in you and working with you, (b) they are more likely to offer you information that they would otherwise leave out or answer vaguely if you came to them first and (c) if they don't come to you within a reasonable amount of time, you know that whatever plans they're cooking don't include you.
Now waiting for them to talk first doesn't mean waiting forever. If I don't hear from a player for most or all of S01, I will certainly open press with them.
Now, playing Italy: I've found that in order to succeed, Italy thrives on the 2v2 combat in the east. If the battle is R/T/I v A, Italy usually gets 1 center while T and R get 2 apiece and ensuring that you have a future alliance isn't a certainty. If you have a R/A/I v T, the alliance paradigm could be R/A v I after T is gone and you still net on average just 1 center. Thus, the net profits for Italy is often less than what your other 'allies' gains.
In a 2 v 2, however, you ally with the guy that you believe has no allies in 1901. You play the detective and find out who is working with who and work with the underdog. The reason for this is simple: the guy who has no allies doesn't want to be left out in the cold and he's likely to offer you more than anyone else. If the battleground is A/I v R/T, you are often likely to get Greece and a Turkish center, maybe 2. If the battle is I/R v A/T, you will often net Gre, Tri and possibly Ser while the I/T v A/R nets you Tri, Vie and either Gre or another center. Second, by allying with the underdog, you secure a long-term alliance for yourself without the fear of your ally working with someone else against you. Remember, that you're not a prime target of anyone for at least the first two years (baring a WT) and in the 2v2 alliance structure, the odds of you being attacked by anyone is slim to none and you have freedom to grow without fear of losing anything.
Your last goal should be to eliminate an opponent before the west is able to do so. If the west eliminates an opponent before the east, suddenly you're faced with the prospect of having someone hit your back before you can respond. This means that you need to have your fingers in the western conversations and manipulate the scene to either (a) delay the western consolidation or (b) ensure that you have a really long-term neutral or allied neighbor until you can afford to refocus your attention.
The rest of playing Italy simply comes down to knowing what other players want and offering them what you can, knowing how to talk to the other players on the map and knowing when someone is lying to you.
==================================================================
My notes for Rhinoceros:
You did pretty well, for the most part, and your press doesn't need much work at all. You have a pretty good ability to talk to others and this ability often makes up for any downfalls that you might have in other areas. I've found that players who can smooth-talk their way into or out of anything will do better than the guy that is an expert tactician or strategist. Also, your moves are pretty right-on. A lot of times, we had pretty similar ideas on how you should move. Your one downfall that I think needs to be worked on, is that you often want to stab someone for a center even though it has negative long-term effects. An example of this is as follows:
by S05, you did really good at finding a target. Your battle with Turkey went sour for a while but after T and R weren't working well together, you were able to find a new Turkish ally and turn on Austria for several centers. By F05, Austria was essentially gone and you selected a new target by taking Budapest from Russia and began making headway into Russia with a good Turkish ally. In F06, however, you stabbed your only ally for a center which effectively united R and T against you since neither of them could trust you. You struggled to make any headway taking on two countries which you couldn't overpower and then France went AWOL in 1908. You were able to nab Spain in F08 which gave you new ground for growth but when the new France came in, you continued to try to attack him and thus gave yourself 3 enemies with a neutral Germany. In the long term, you would have suffered with so many people that couldn't trust you or wanted you dead. Premature assaults, especially those that net you only 1 center, aren't worth your attention. If you wanted to attack Russia, then keep a Turkish ally until Russia is so far gone that he can't come back (like 1 or 2 centers). If you wanted to take on Turkey, then you need to be working with Russia and not stab for a lone center. It's usually a good idea to only have 1 enemy at any given time and to make sure that your enemy has another enemy as well so that taking him on is a simple job. This really helps in cases where you're in the middle of a campaign and someone comes at you from behind (like France). If you hadn't have had so many enemies, I think you would have had the chance to solo in this one. As it is, a first-place draw is almost as good.
If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask.
Overall, pretty good job and I think you'll do well in the future. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1
I'll start a new thread for the SoW G1 EOG's since it hasn't been done yet. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I didn't know anyone was going to speed through anything. Builds and disbands are tricky sometimes and can mean the difference between advancing your country or getting stabbed. I personally enjoy thinking about my decisions. Sometimes it's obvious, other times it's not. Italy has a tricky set of disbands coming so I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't finalize. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1
My EOG is at home in a txt file so I'll have it for everyone tomorrow (if I remember) and I promised MM and everyone that I'd post my general opening comments and first year comments about how I play Italy. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I agree that Russia has the best position on the map. He's got several aspects to his country that make for a really solid position:
(a) Condensed units with a pretty solid front line
(b) No real enemies, especially those that don't also have another enemy besides him
(c) Locations for future expansion.
I don't anticipate a Turkish stab. It would be a poor decision with R helping him gain new centers. Those sorts of stabs are like biting the hand that feeds you. If a stab does come, it's going to come when G is committed to a Russian combat and T has the resources necessary to make the change. This means that Italy would have to be on board and not bitter about the loss of Greece and Serbia or he'd have to be on his way out the door.
The only real drawback was the move on Germany coupled with the loss of (or not taking of) Vienna. I'm sure he really anticipated a build coming in and it would have been an army at Warsaw. He's going to be either talking his way out of negative consequences or lying about his actions. Either that or he isn't talking much to Germany at this point and he's banking on strong French support.
I also don't think Italy would dare move on France again this soon. He's got too much to concentrate on coming out of the east to bounce back into the Med. Even if he did gain Spain, Portugal or Marseilles, it would be to his detriment because he'd be dedicating units from his hot zone and he'd have to disband along his eastern border, which he can't really afford to do. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1
I must say, the NMR came at a pretty critical juncture.
Don't take it personally PE, it's got nothing to do with you, yet. My thread has had a lot of drops by professors. I've pretty much been commenting on it alone. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
strange that I've been calling it 1905 all year when it's 1906. Sorry for the pair of typos everyone. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
F05:
#1 Germany: I had expected you to drop to the second spot to a rising Russian, but with him supporting him Turkey into locations I expected him to take and the loss of Vienna means that you're still in the best position on the map. The fact Russia is moving against you isn't much of a shock either but fortunately the early spring disband will give you an army build that will help out. That, coupled with the fact that you ousted France from Belgium with nowhere to run means that you can dedicate units to your rear flank. Couple all of those with the understanding that you'll finally take the last of the English centers next season means that you should be sitting pretty next year. For builds, I expect an army build at Berlin.
#2 Russia: This year wasn't quite the blessing that you expected it would be and you now have a rather condensed Italy that will possibly cause you to have to slog through the next years instead of putting yourself on cruise control. Hopefully the premature move on Germany won't cause any further complications either, since your north isn't nearly as secure as your south and with no builds coming, I'd be particularly nervous about what Germany can do in the north. Oftentimes, if I'm going to get a build, I will wait to stab a player until after I already have the centers secured and make a new move in the spring. This failure to gain a build has entirely to do with not securing your steps before making a new leap. Remember the old adage that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. It's better to take 1 center than try something risky for 2 in nearly all cases, this being one of them. But, if you can secure a build next year (which I believe you will), then you should be in much better shape than at present.
#3 France: This last season turned out, in my opinion, far better than what it could have been. With Russia moving inward, things are looking a little more stable. You've got some room to negotiate, both with Germany and Russia and couple that with a neutral Italy, your future could be rather bright in the year to come. You're not out of the woods yet and you could still suffer some losses at London and Paris next year with the excess of fleets you have at your disposal. One thing I should point out, though, is that you chose to use cut-supports instead of holds along the northern zones. I really like that. Far too often players find themselves in tricky situations and assume that their only option is to support a hold or two. In many cases, a cut support is better since it accomplishes the same thing but doesn't give up anything. The cut-support is a sure thing and can't itself be cut. I've even seen the support hold fail in games with veteran players because they didn't think about selecting a cut-support option. Nicely done.
#4 Turkey: Your situation has certainly improved and you're teetering on the #3 spot. If you can manage to get out of the box you're in along the sea zones, then your growth will be much better than it rests at it's current. Having Russia support you into Serbia was some icing on the cake for me. With two builds coming, you'll still be a bit bottled but you're in the break-out stage. If I were to have changed anything, it would have been how you took Greece. If you'd have taken it with Bulgaria instead of the AEG, then getting into the ION would have been a breeze. As it is, Italy will keep you locked up for a little longer but not forever. I can understand the apprehension with Russia in the north but not quite my first choice of moves. The bottom line is that you're still in pretty good shape. For builds, I expect a pair of armies. I really can't see how a fleet build would be beneficial.
#5 Italy: Rough ride this last year. Just as the early Turkish NMR threw things off for both him and Austria, the German stab did the same thing for you. Losing two units isn't fun but I must congratulate you on your moves last season. You held your losses to as little as possible and condensed your units as much as possible. Things are grim but not over by any means and most of the board is still in the same position you are. Depending on what happens next year will determine how things will go for you. You have the ability to get behind Russia, or at least push him back, without compromising much in return. For disbands, I expect that they will come from your far side at Tuscany and Venice.
Things to look for: With the Russian advances on Germany, this could cause Germany to rethink his campaign against France. The biggest question on the map from my standpoint is whether Germany will attempt to patch things up with his old partner. This happens from time to time in games and I've done it myself to see a positive conclusion when things were falling apart and it's not out of the question here. If the F/G returns, it could have big implications for the rest of the map but it could be that Germany might be more willing than France or vice-versa and it's possible that bridges have been burned there without the possibility of repair. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
and again - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
bump - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I will disagree with your commentary at one point--your assessment of Italy: A year ago, F/G was the primary alliance in the game and the eastern countries (all 4) banded together to take it head on. When G stabbed F, the east had the ability to splinter and take on new opponents. G and R went neutral while R and a dormant T turned on the west-facing Italian. Now, I and F have gone neutral to try to fight back, although it might be too late. Only time and diplomacy will tell.
I'm also not comfortable with Germany's position and I don't expect to see him get more than 1 build this year. I also think that he will have to make the decision on whether to retake Bel or take Par.
Certainly R and G will have somewhat a tense relationship as will R and T and in time we will see how things play out.
I do agree with you that Turkey is incredibly bottled up but if Russia helps out, Turkey will see additional builds.
In the long run, I don't think the stabs are over. I'm also curious about what sort of press is being passed between nations at this point. "alliances" (and I use the term loosely) have been passed around so much that I wonder what people really have to say to each other at this point. It's been my experience that press is heavy in 1901 and declines over the years as the game settles. Naturally this is somewhat true since people get eliminated, but I get the feeling that it declines more than these type of 'odds' would expect. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
...or not. - : Re: Carry a grudge or friendship
When someone gets stabbed repeatedly by another player, it's hard not to expect to get stabbed again. I don't carry that sort of thing over from one game to another. I see a stab as my fault (a genuine stab and not merely me fighting someone or a group of people). If I lose in a game, it irritates me to no end but I get over it. - : Re: Donor Status
The medals indicate that they clearly have enough money to throw around, and that they can pay me to throw the game in my favor. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Curious about youradhere's commentary. Looking forward to it :) - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
S05: A very rough year overall with one player in real control while the others have to mop up loose ends. The top spot will change after this year and we will see a new leader on the board, although this leader won't have the dominant number of centers.
#1 Germany (tentatively): Not a bad position to see yourself in. You have a hole to fill against the French but I see some blockading coming up for you since you won't be facing France with any help. Your biggest mountain to climb has to do with staying inside the French borders while (a) smashing his roaming army and (b) continuing to gain builds. This next season is going to really cause you to think about the board quite a bit before settling on some moves but I suspect that you'll come away with a build after the smoke clears. Continue to read the board because the game isn't over yet.
#2 Russia: You're in a very strong position and if things go as I expect them to, you'll be back in the top spot once again. You'll definitely be seeing a build at Vienna and either Trieste or Serbia while your Turkish cohort will see some gains as well. I also wouldn't be surprised to see that northern fleet leaving its dock sometime soon. You've definitely secured a draw spot if that's what you're wanting. There's not a whole lot else to say here other than that you had a really nice year this year.
#3 Italy: I'll comment first on your builds. Sorry I didn't get to this sooner but here it is for better or for worse. Needless to say, I disagree with the fleet build. I'm not sure if this was accidental but it was the worst build you could have made. A fleet in Venice only has the option of moving to the Adriatic and out to the Ionian or maybe on to Trieste, but even there, it cannot support armies further inland. A fleet at naples would have been a better fleet build by far since it gets to where it needs to be much faster than a build at Naples. As it is, though, you already control the dominant navy in the south with fleets in superior positions compared to Turkey and the best build would have been an army at Venice. It's got flexibility and can protect your (now) front line. I expected the stab and tried to steer clear of mentioning it last season so as not to sway the movement but with the F/G falling apart, you were the next logical choice. Your units were butted up against the French forces in the west with your rear exposed. A very late Juggernaut will now have a hay-day with your Austrian centers. As I mentioned earlier, it should have been you controlling Budapest and not the Russians in order to prevent someone else from hanging out near your centers with you further away. As if this post isn't insulting enough (which I apologize for), I disagree with your Venice movement. The Venice fleet should have gone to the Adriatic in order to help cover Trieste or the Ionian (whichever was most needed). The rest of the moves were reasonable except for Piedmont holding. It would have been better to move it east into Venice. This way, you'd have formed the wall you wanted against the R/T making its way back toward you. I'm going to assume that the Tuscany move was made out of the assumption that R and T weren't going to attack you and you still wanted to gain ground against the French. Outside that, there's no real reason to have your fleet here. I also suspect that you won't be moving to the GoL this next season. Of the moves that were really great (which were more plentiful than the bad ones), the convoy was an excellent choice--getting that loose army to Apulia will pay dividends. Also on the bright side is that you do have a retreat coming, although you'll be down 2 or 3 centers by the end of the season and possibly the bottom spot on the map.
#4 France: As bad as things might seem, you're still in a pretty good position. There's still a chance that you might maintain control of Belgium but it will require out-thinking the German player in addition coupling that with a bit of diplomacy luck. You've managed to get all your bases covered and even have a fleet in the MAO to boot which has several options. If you actually do maintain control of Belgium and don't lose anything, then you're in a really great spot and might possibly go up the ladder. As it is, though, I suspect that you'll maintain where you're at with the loss of Paris.
#5 Turkey: Not far from the #3 spot, the moves this season were pretty good. The only real downfall that you're facing right now is that you have one too many fleets out there than what you really need. One suggestion is to get one of them into the Black Sea but ultimately you'll be facing an army build from the gain at Greece. Another thing you'll have to be cautious about is your northern ally. He will gain 1 maybe 2 centers this next year and I anticipate that one of them will have to be at Sevastopol. You'll have to ask yourself how long you think that the temporary alliance will last and whether or not you think he views you as expendable.
Things to look for this season:
What's Russia going to do in the north this fall. If he does indeed have 2 builds coming, it would be awfully 'convenient' for him to have only two open centers to put them and if he does have actual options on where to place units, what they will be will indicate some things to come. The other thing to look for is if Germany gains a build or stays even and if France loses a build or stays even. This will determine who has the upper hand in the western war. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Back to the front - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1
I agree with vordemu. I have some interesting things that might help players playing Italy in the future and there's a lot to be said about this game. I'm sure the game is nearly done since everyone has voted to draw except France who's in a losing position. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Sorry, to clarify, Russia is #2, Italy is #3. There was quite a bit of tossing around those two countries for me because they both have so many strong points which make them good contenders for the second position on the map. I could argue that France is also #3 but I'd be hesitant to bump Russia or Italy down even further. It's a very tight race among the top 4 spots.
Also, there was another typo about Germany's building an army in Munich. Clearly he wouldn't be able to do so.
I'll comment a little about the builds, since I have the time:
France: Tough choice for disbands but a natural choice since you have to condense your units and protect your home. To everyone who is unsure in times of disbanding, its often (but not always) a better choice to disband units further away from your home centers than it is to disband ones closer to them. The times its not advisable to do so is when you have a secure homeland with an extra unit to spare there or you really need a unit behind enemy lines mucking around. If France would have had a fleet in the Baltic or an army around the Bohemia area, it's better to hang on to those units since they stretch the defense of your enemy. As it is, if you have gaps in your own defenses and too many units spread out, ditch one far away and pull some units back but never reduce yourself to simply defending unless you know for certain that you have help on the way.
Germany: Good call for builds since France is on the retreat and you control the stalemate line. A fleet could have also filled the hole in the North Sea without compromising the Island centers and would have also allowed Edi to wrap behind the Island and strike at the MAO. I still would have gone with the army given that you will have several enemies on you.
Russia: Unless your army is moving south, I would have deferred a build. It's going to take a full year or more to get it into position to do anything against Germany (if that's your target) and a build next year in warsaw does the same thing.
Italy will come soon. - : Re: Question Time.
It's not metagaming, it's simply poor play. - : Re: Revolutionary thread that actually deals with the game of Diplomacy #2 relationships
I simply open the floodgates and come right out and offer to work with people. I have no problems offering suggestions and coming up with plans. The idea is that in real life, most people are followers and very few are leaders. If two followers are talking to each other, they'll simply sit around and try to dig up information and play their hand. I step up and be a leader and simply take the reins and make genuine plans, propose enemies and establish goals. People are often drawn to that sort of thing and it shows the other person that I'm (a) interested and (b) committed to the cause.
After I receive replies from the countries I've set out to work with, I check what they're saying to determine who might be lying or might not be giving me quite what I want and I select to work with the person who gives me the best deal possible while offering them things in return.
I won't go into a lot of detail because I don't like to share a lot of my strategy. That sort of thing can come back to bite you in the end, but that's the basis of how I go about making friends in the first year. - : Re: Am I dreaming?
Yes, you're dreaming. Denver won this week (bout time. The loss to the Raiders was really stupid). I'm surprised my team won with all the injuries we had before and during the game. Heck, Tebow played a WR this game. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
F05: Very interesting turn of events. Some were to be expected but some were less expected but still sound decisions and we still have some people doing little to nothing and at this phase in the game, doing nothing means that you're expendable.
#1 Germany: You're either in a very good spot or in a very tight spot. The stab was effective but it was a shoe-in stab, and the only ends that should have been tied up along with the stab would be ensuring that you have other allies. Making the stab is great but if you're alone in the process, then your top spot is going to falter. On another bright side, Austria being out of the picture means that you have a little more cushion room. The biggest drawback of the stab is the impending loss of Belgium and in addition, if F and R are working together, you'll have to cover more of your border than you should be covering. For builds, I expect either an army in Munich (more likely) or a fleet in Kiel (less likely).
#3 Russia: Although you don't have the second most number of centers, you do have one of the best positions on the map. Depending on what happens in the coming season, you could be in a really great spot. You've got room to grow and will continue to do so as the game progresses. Next season will show some futures to come. I won't say more quite yet to prevent influencing some things but needless to say, your future looks bright. For builds, an army in Sevastopol makes a little sense but deferring a build seems to make a lot of sense as well.
#3 Italy: Again, this is a difficult idea to place you here. Many would argue that you should be controlling the second position on the map, and to some extent, I agree with that assessment. The biggest hangup I have is that with F and G no longer allies, you'll have to wonder about the affairs of the east. Serbia is absolutely undefended and Greece is not far off. Turkey has been lurking in the corner doing oddly nothing while Russia is on your backdoor. If things go well for you this season, then you're in a better spot than you are right now but if things go sour, you could be facing a similar situation as France. Granted, the strong F/G forced some movements along the lines you're in but once you agreed to take out Austria with Russia, it would have been better for you to take Budapest and see him into Vienna since it puts you closer to centers you control than anyone else. On another note, I love the movement ideas along the French border. If you didn't negotiate France leaving Tunis, then the way you out-thought your opponent and opt out of movement to the Western Med was excellant, and better yet, it was paired with a convoy to close all gaps. If it was agreed upon, it was still a great maneuver to cover your bases. Very nicely done.
#4 France: Although your position has decreased somewhat, I'm hesitant to put you at the fourth spot in the game. Some could argue that you're in the third, maybe second spot but I put you here because of the massive gaps you have in your defenses along your border and you still have to disband a unit during this year's build phase. Sure, Belgium could be an easy gain but then you have to deal with the question about his retreat location and what you do there. With PE on your side as your new TA, he should have some good guiding lights to help you increase your status, and you could be in a rather handsome spot in years to come. The stab, although painful, was not lethal and you should take it as a learning lesson to never let your guard down. There was no need to leave Edi and move to the NRG and even less reason to try for St Pete since it's way outside your bounds for reasonable gains and should have been left to Germany. After all, you did get the entire English Island out of the original deal, which is more than a vast majority of French players can claim under similar circumstances. With the deterioration of the F/G and the elimination of Austria, I'd certainly say that the east is in the "bargaining" position once again and new contracts can be drawn up between you and another player pretty easily. Always remember, in every game, someone out there wants to find growth through the territory of your enemies. You just need to determine who that is and what you can offer. For disbands, the Barents Sea is the most likely choice.
#5 Turkey: Still not entirely sure what you're doing back there. You look like a fish that swam toward the shore during high tide and was left there on the banks once the tide receded just biding your time flopping around. There are opportunities to be had and it's about time to begin to figure out where you're going. If you don't do something, then as I stated before, you're expendable.
Things to look for:
The next phase of the game depends on what Russia, Italy and Turkey are going to be doing. If the east remains cohesive and focuses on attacking the west, then I'd say we have our 3-way draw pointed out for us unless someone attempts to gun for the solo. If the east breaks apart like the west did, then new cooperative groups will form with new lines of attack. I don't really think that the east is going to remain as it is because Turkey can only sit so long and do nothing. He's either going to be eliminated because he's expendable, or he's going to join the offensive and start attacking the back of one of his allies. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
In some sense of things, I have to agree with Scmoo. If everyone else has a TA on their side who is a qualified player, he should have one as well. It's not too fair for someone to not have a second set of eyes on the board.
Thanks to PE for stepping in. I'll post some more commentary as well since I should have some time. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I also need to apologize to schmoo, the spot you're in without a TA could be having adverse effects but I really hope that you continue playing. You've done really well so far and you're by far not out of this game. Good luck. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Here's the spring commentary. Note that I noticed that the fall season's moves went through but this commentary is based entirely on just the spring. I'll have the fall coming as soon as I can get them.
S05: This season was similar to what I anticipated after reading the board from the following season. I will disagree with some things and congratulate some others but, as usual, there's quite a bit to say here.
#1 France: At this point, you should be considering yourself lucky. Your first place position is secure as long as there isn't a German stab. You've evacuated a lot of locations along very important spots and put yourself into a very defenseless position. Fortunately for you, the eastern powers have condensed into one large thing that forces the F/G to survive out of necessity. In a normal game, however, this type of defenselessness and vulnerability is the type of thing that precedes many stabs. If a player can stab you for +1 or +2 centers while you end up at -1 or -2 centers, then a stab is likely going to take place and that's where you're sitting--in the good graces of Germany. Additionally, if your alliance remains through this year then Germany will take the top spot because his locations are more defensible than your own. The key to not being stabbed is to not put yourself into a position to be stabbed.
As it stands, though, the question that remains is 'what is the end game alliance going to look like because a 2-way is not feasable unless it's the ludacrous pairing of two naieve players ending the game on a nice note and not based on competitiveness and going for the solo. The fall moves will explain more and to be honest to this point, in general, you deserve to have a spot in the endgame draw based solely on play during the last 4 years.
#2 Germany: Your spot as the number two is under debate and this last season showed that because you have convinced France to put himself at your mercy and trust you won't stab while your units are in position to prevent a return-stab. I'm also surprised you haven't taken the last English center which is simply hanging out. In addition, while he's staying alive, he's not even working for you so it's merely a unit hanging out being a nuissance. Last, you'll face the brunt of pressure from the eastern nations as the combined force of Russia and Austria is in a better position to put a hurt on you than Italy is on France.
To get back to my statement about a stab, this was your year to shine and stabbing France would have been paramount here but could only be coupled by talking to some eastern nations letting them know about the stab ahead of time and securing allies. Stabbing your only ally is the worst thing you can do but stabbing your ally while making new ones is the best thing you can do, especially when it puts you into a position for a solo or top draw position.
#3 Russia: Of all the eastern nations, your position is to be most envied. You have pressure on Germany, can stab Austria for gains or maintain him as a good ally to see the both of you see future gains and you're in no position to receive a stab. I must congratulate your moves because out of anyone on the map, you won't be losing centers this season and will set yourself up to make gains in the next. If F and G continue to play nice, it could very well be you as the third member of an end-game draw and if things go badly for them and the 4 eastern nations end up ruling the map, you'll be in a top draw spot there as well. Nice moves last season.
#4 Italy: Your spot is still really good and you're looking to put France in a tight spot and have room to negotiate. Even having France occupy Tunis isn't bad because he may not be able to hold it for long if you can continue to get fleets into position and you'll be sitting in Piedmont very soon and be able to see Austria into Munich with no great effort. The only point of nervousness is if Turkey should turn, you'll be in a rougher spot having fleets to both your front face and rear flank coupled with the loss of Greece but as long as the F/G remains, I don't see that happening.
#5 Turkey: It looks like you've decided to throw your lot into the eastern powers taking on the two giant western nations. Not sure what your lone army is doing, but I guess it's pretty negligible. Getting your fleets out to lend support is critical to have the greater naval presence in the French/Italian waters. I like the moves overall, especially seeing that your allies are committed to doing their part. I also like your position because you have the most room for negotiation, especially with the western world.
#6 Austria: Love Vie-Boh with support. You're looking at gaining a build this season since Italy has pressure to the west and Russia will be assisting you. You should be moving up a spot if things go well this season. I understand your position and you don't really have much of a choice in putting yourself into a position to be stabbed because at this point, it's all or nothing. Good luck in the season to come but forcing Germany to disband an army in the spring was beautiful. I always recommend forcing disbands in the spring instead of the fall unless your opponent loses centers because the loss of a unit in the spring means that you'll have a stronger hand going into the fall while your opponent has to suffer. Disbanding units in the fall while not taking a center means that their unit will simply be rebuilt to abound again but forcing a disband in the fall while taking a center means that you're the one that gets to choose the unit your opponent loses. Very nice.
#7 England: um...do something? - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
My parents are in town and so I'll post what I can for some commentary for the S05 season but I doubt I'll give it the attention that it deserves. If I can't finish it, I won't post it until it's done which may not happen until tomorrow evening when I'll comment for both the spring and fall phases. Sorry all. I'll do what I can since I know that many of you follow the comments and some of you are curious about my earlier post. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I won't have time to get to the S05 moves commentary until later on. I work tonight and I'm leaving campus now. Sorry all, you'll have to wait another 8 or 9 hours plus time to type it all out. I will say this, though. The events of this last season were entirely predictable but if I were Germany, I would have totally stabbed France instead of worked with him. More on that to come, though. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Thanks for that closing FK. I agree whole-heartedly and look forward to maybe doing this with you in future seasons. Good luck. - : Re: Statistics
I have a small statistics report based on each country and including various miscellaneous statistics. If anyone's interested, you can email me at joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu - : Re: attempt to guage
D-what is this 'toothbrush' you are talking about? We don't own a toilet. We simply crap directly on the ground and let the cockroaches and flies do the cleanup. It's been a pretty good system so far. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
bump back to front page. Looks like the Spring phase will end soon. I'll comment then. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
*picks up thread and carries it back to the front page* - : Re: How common is soloing without backstabbing?
I'll address some back comments and include my own thoughts. First off, if someone is genuinely stabbing 8 times, I'm sure their game is basically over. I find that the best way to play is to make tactical decisions on when and where to stab. I tell the truth 90% of the time and lie 10% and make my lies count.
Secondly, if you're merely lying to someone who never really had the opportunity to trust you, it's not much of a stab and in 1901, you can't really stab unless you really *really* dupe the guy who's totally committed. I will make an alliance last until I can afford to ditch it, and if I can't ditch it, I'll keep it. In any event, you cannot possibly win a game without stabbing someone and maybe even two people. If you and an ally are simply "racing for 18" holding hands, then you're playing the wrong game.
I remember the first time I stabbed a guy. It was glorious and fun and I talked him into staying my ally for another turn and another stab. But then again, it was at a convention and someone I didn't know. I also remember the first time I stabbed a good ally. It was hard to do the first time and I tried talking myself out of it for a while. The first real stab is hard to do but it gets easier over time.
And yes, everyone loves Eden. Right up until they stab him or he stabs them. - : Re: We The Undersigned...
I simply mute people who get really obnoxious. I have 2 people muted and would like to keep it to that. - : Re: Look!
The microwave we used did not have the turn table, so I can't answer that question adequately. - : Re: Look!
Here's something cool and true: if you put a dorito bag in the mircowave and straighten it out as much as possible, it'll shrink down to the size of a Barbie-sized dorito bag and if it's a good enough shrink job, you can still read the writing on it. We did this in a high school class (unbeknownst to the teacher) and it was pretty cool.
I recommend using someone else's microwave tho because it gave off a pretty good lights show. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I'd be down prof that one. I think the students could benefit by it if they follow along and ask questions. - : Re: need new game, willing to invest points...
I prefer 48 hours as well. really busy schedule outside the world of diplomacy (if there is such a thing)
Good to hear you don't hold grudges Draug. I didn't put you as the type anyhow. I consider us friendly rivals in terms of GR. - : Re: So I just noticed we have some Player of the Year awards...
no. I'm sure player-of-the-year is determined by TGM primarily and is a culmination of the other little awards that are up on his site. Dunno how reliable they are as a real measure, but they're there. You're player of the year to me tho (unless you begin advertising your STD's). - : Re: need new game, willing to invest points...
That said, if he's up for me playing, let's make it anonymous. - : Re: need new game, willing to invest points...
I might be talked into it if Draugnar is ok with it. I still think he's a bit bitter with me. I still say he's in the top 5 people on this site I enjoy playing with. - : Re: Iceland...
As I understand it, Europe itself didn't even exist in the Spring of 1901. The Atlantic Ocean ran right up to Asia and it wasn't until late spring/early fall before the entire continent floated up out of the depths of the ocean and merged itself with Asia to create one large block of land.
Mr. Calhammer and anyone in cahoots with him seriously need to buy bigger prescription goggles if you ask me. Kinda sad because I expected that the upcoming "Diplomacy the movie" would make these kind of gross mistakes. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I agree with jmo and Cachimbo. Even if he was participating, at this point, he has 1 unit and nothing left to do. There's no reason for a guy with 1 unit to not finalize his orders and I'm the kind of guy that would find any reason possible NOT to finalize.
Even if E has stuff to do, he doesn't have THAT much to do in this game...(a) bring himself down to 1 unit and (b) blow a full year's worth of movements. Even if Russia is for helping him out, Germany will control the center by the end of the Spring phase and he'll be sitting on his thumbs in the fall.
If he's really not participating in the game, even with his TA, I also don't really expect to hear any EOG's from him either, but I'm curious to hear jmo's thoughts on the England situation.
This game's been pretty crazy, though. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I recommend reading through all of the prior posts and pairing them up with their respective seasons to get a feel for how the game has been flowing thus far. There's been a lot of crazy activity that you don't really see unless you follow it all from the start.
Glad to have you youradhere. Hope you'll hang out with me for a while :) - : Re: Look!
+1 Draug. I was gonna post that same thing. - : Re: Ethics question
@ KA: is this thread really necessary? At this point you're being an ass. plain and simple. I really hope you get banned for this kind of crap. Surely you can find a forum somewhere else to clog with your garbage. I'm going to mute you and hope you get banned. - : Re: 17:17 -- Myth or Reality?
The actual statistic for 2-way draws is about 4.7% of all games. In fact, 7-way draws are less frequent than 2-ways. How many of those are along the stalemate line, however, is far fewer than that. - : Re: Questions on banned people.
+1 MM. I had several on my profile that were shockers as well and no person banned ever won any of my games either. One of them drew with us but they weren't multi-accounting either in our game and they were almost the last-place draw.
It's been my experience that people who multi generally suck and they multi because they can't win any other way. - : Re: need new game, willing to invest points...
+1 Draug. The mods do seem to have a strange "hive mind" and this obscure thread indicates something similar, if not something sinister.
I'm interested in hearing what (a) this "op" truly means and (b) this game proposition. - : Re: What is the most powerful nation to start with, in everyone's opinion?
Usually when threads like these start, someone talks about statistics and if you want the simple break down statistically, the answer is France. It wins or draws in nearly 1 out of every 3 games at the least and this number only increases under veteran play where draws are far more common. Second, it has the easiest learning curve of any country on the map with few people to really target you outright and botching the first year is pretty darn hard and third, it's a really well defended country with a stalemate line toward Germany and two easy centers that cannot possibly be claimed by another power within your reach in the first year. Couple all of that with the fact that it's one of only two countries that really can expect 3 builds in 1901, it has the power to be a really great country to play. Last, if there's a Juggernaut, and you're pretty sure that it's not going to try for a 3-way, you've got the best chance of survival.
Concerning people being too afraid to attack France with Italy, I don't think it's much out of fear insomuch as it is out of ineptitude. If you're going to attack Austria, you have the ability to strike him right out of S01. If you're going for Turkey, you can dock units in Serbia (Key Lepanto) or Greece and then force your way into the Aegean. When it comes to France, it's a different story. In order to attack France, you have to have another player that definitely wants to join you, and you're better off with both G and E and not just one of them. In addition to this, to even secure a French center by force, you're looking at a year and a half minimum to get anywhere. Marseilles is your closest bet and it's not even a shoe-in. If things go badly and G and/or E back off the fight, he can simply stalemate you along Switzerland until an eastern power is defeated and you're facing another enemy at your back side. Last, if F and G are both working with you to take out France, oftentimes, Italy get's the shaft on dividing the spoils. A statistical analysis shows these to be pretty true since in all the games I studied with French openings, the outcomes yielded far worse results than moving your units in any other way (on average). There were some solos and draws in there, don't get me wrong, but they were simply few and far between.
This isn't to say it's not doable, but it's certainly not the best target, especially if 1901 is looking dubious. The cards have to be in your favor to try it. I've seen it done successfully but it's not easy and by no means something that a novice can pull off. - : Re: Boardgames?
The turn-based star wars game I play is simply the actual rpg but we break down combat over a period of days to play it on a forum since we have a hard time getting together. we play FtF about 4 times a year. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
bump...England? - : Re: Boardgames?
I have the first 3 munchkin decks (up to clerical errors) but no one to play with.
I was a play-tester for A Song of Fire and Ice (or something like that, it might even be Game of Thrones, as it's from the same book series. If it is, my name should be in the back of the rulebook as a play-tester, or so they promised). The game when I tested it, was way too involved. It had cards, dice and a whole gamut of things, not to mention a billion rules. Too complex to be a really great game.
I used to play MTG but sold my awesome collection years ago. I still play sometimes but use other people's cards (the new one's suck). I also used to play DnD 3.5 and earlier (back to Adnd and Adnd 2nd edition with some DnD) but switched to Star Wars. Still really fun. - : Re: Mind the gap!
Yes, I do, but only if they have dots on them. I have this strong desire to collect dots. I might need to see a therapist on the issue because when I start a game, I have this overwhelming feeling like all of the dots belong to me and that everyone else is squatting on my land. - : Re: Infrastructure Bank
or rather, ion-free? - : Re: Infrastructure Bank
by unionized labor, I'm guessing that you mean un-ionized labor meaning "salt-free"? - : Re: "Open" Games
I'm sure it has to do with a slight glitch in the coding that places a game in the "open" section when a position is open but doesn't remove it even after players fill the spot(s) until the game is finished. - : Re: Boardgames?
sounds like a cross between Heroes Quest and Harbingers another game that used a vhs cassette to play that pits a key master against everyone playing to prevent them from winning in an allotted time frame. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
sounds like a good deal. msg me when u think you're coming thru and I'll give ya my number. we'll get together for a min. - : Re: Boardgames?
I play any board games I can. Power Grid is really fun, but I also play Settlers of Catan (online and FtF), Carcassonne, Shogun, Axis and Allies, and many others. I've even playtested games at Gen Con. Heroclix is ok, I heard Puerto Rico was only alright. Agricola sucked.
I also play star wars the rpg (paper based like dnd) and have an online forum where we play turn-based like we do here on the site. I have one campaign up and going and it's been really fun. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Good luck, P. My recommendation in moving is to find people that you trust are careful. We had my wife's best friend help us move and she was lazy and just threw all the spices, flour, sugar, etc into one box even though the flour and sugar were open and it was messy to say the least. Her step-father (if you can call him that) was rough with several of our things and broke some glass-ware and other articles so...in short, do most of it yourself and don't "hire" the lazy or careless. No one cares for your stuff like you do.
Plus, if you move close to the southern Kentucky area, msg me when ya get a chance. I'll introduce you to Bowling Green. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Who's leaving? - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
F04: An interesting but expected turn of events occurred in the Fall of 1904. There were some small blunders and some new twists for countries that will soon be finding themselves in a desperate situation in the coming year. I will certainly have more to say this post than from the prior, so hold onto your seats for this.
Since the dynamic of the board will be changing starting in the year to come, I will begin by removing my commentary by each Power Sphere and go from the top position on the board to the bottom position.
#1 France: France has stapled the top position on the map and secured for himself a spot at the end game barring a catastrophic and unforseen event. Essentially, this means that France will participate in a draw or take a solo unless the rest of the board gangs up on him, and I certainly don't see that happening. His unit size is closely compared to a few other countries on the board and his ability to grow will be closely matched by other players, and the fact that he's sitting secure with a German ally all indicate that he will end this game on a positive note. The movement south across the stalemate line has proved successful and now France is looking at gaining some Italian soil but future gains here will certainly take time. Italy having builds and a retreating fleet will slow his progress unless France has a pocket-ally in the east. I agree with all of his moves and the complete DMZ of the French-German border indicates that neither power has any desire to turn on the other. The only tangle that France will have to iron out is what to do with the English Isle. Clearly neither F nor G wants to tie up 2 to 3 units on the island in order to keep the peace, so the question remains about how to back off peacefully and put those units to better use. For builds, I anticipate a fleet build in Marseilles.
#2 Germany: Closely matched to France, Germany is sitting nicely with no enemies and room to grow. The moves were pretty self-evident but I disagree with the North Sea's support hold of Yorkshire. It's not a center and you have no real stake on the Island as it is, so...why hold it? You'd have been better off using the North Sea to support Sweden into Norway for a build this season. I understand that you want an army there, because your next target will be Russia, but it's better to get the army build now and convoy next season. Now, England will be working with Russia as much as he can to stay alive (not that it matters much) but an English fleet can certainly be a pain in the neck if it can offer to ally with anyone on the board. I will say, however, that you are in more of a peril than France because he simply controls more units along your mutual borders with 3 in England, 1 in Burgundy and a build coming. I'm certain he will concentrate on Italy in the years to come, but what afterward? Also, you'll see a build at Norway and probably St Pete but depending on what Russia can and cannot do, you might be faced with some growth slowing and you'll have to figure out what to do afterward.
#3 Italy: Having 2 builds is going to be your strongest ally in the year to come. Being a 1/3 partner in a RIT will help but you have the added penalty of having an angry Austria at your back coupled with a threatening France at your front. If the RIT holds out, then you could be in a decent position, but if Austria is eliminated and you're still around, there will be talks of eliminating another player for a 4-way or two players for a 3-way and the top elimination would likely include you unless you can find some additional growth. If you manage to make it to 8 units, then you'd be far more secure than you are now, but the biggest problem you're facing is that you've got a strong France with nothing to do to your left, an almost certain enemy Austria to the right and 2 other countries that also want to participate in a draw. This is what I mean anytime I say that Italy has to manipulate the west and ensure that the east is the first person to see a country eliminated because if the west is first, you're in trouble. Now it's going to come up to clever thinking and knowing what your opponent will do before he does it. The biggest key is to get a unit behind France without putting your neck at the dog's throat. Budapest is looking quite nice this year and it's possible that you could come away with 1 build next year, 2 if the stars have aligned in your favor. For builds this year, I expect to see a fleet at Rome and an army at Venice. A build at Naples is possible but only if coupled with a build at Rome and a double-fleet would be ridiculous.
#4 Russia: Russia is going to be facing some problems starting next year. The decline from 8 down to 5 in a single season continues to flaunt its ugly face and with England essentially gone in the west and Germany seeking new territory. Fortunately, England isn't gone completely and Germany did *not* get a build, but with Austria working with Germany, it will certainly throw a kink in your gears. I expect that fire will be met with fire in the year to come as your units surge forward to clash with Germany's but diplomacy will have to play an integral part in your plans. Anytime I look at the board, I want to be in the #1 spot (clearly) and if I'm not, then I want to find enough people to rally with me that OUR combined force is the top force in the game. Since F and G are tightly allied, this gives their force a total of 15 untis. In order for things to go smoothly for you (or more so), your force needs to comprise of more than 15 units. Given that Austria could be working with Germany, they could conceivably have 17 but smart playing on your part as well as others could give you the upper hand. You're by no means out of the game, but you certainly haven't sealed your part in the end yet either. Obviously to feel comfortable, you'll need 2 more centers, the first of which is a fleet in the north to counter-act the opposing German navy, and another army somewhere in the mix would fill in the gaps nicely. The only question is about where to expand.
#5 Turkey: Still not out of the box, your position is not a very happy one, but not necessarily bleak either. To the negatives, I don't see where you expect to see some growth but the positives outweigh the negatives. To the positive, you have an ally in any country that directly borders your centers and each of them has an enemy on the other side of you: Russia with Germany and Italy with France. This means that you've got some room to negotiate. Either you attack Italy or Russia to gain some growth and hope that the F/G doesn't try for the 2-way or solo or you play the supporting role and use your units to R and I advantages to slow down the F/G. In any situation that's getting closer to the endgame, it's often that two powers try to find a suitable third to form the draw trio. It also usually involves to western powers finding a third eastern or two eastern finding a third western. Rarely does a triple alliance form from one power sphere and rape the board. F and G will be the powerhouses looking for a third person to help them mop up and you're in the best position to fill that role. On the flip-side, if someone's going to solo, (F over G) then you certainly don't want to be the guy helping them do it. Your next year will determine which avenue you take and sometimes it's not an easy choice to make.
#6 Austria: Not out of the game yet, but I do see it coming. The German support was strangely unexpected and even more strange was the fact that it was accepted. The F/G combined with a I/T or ITR does not bode well with a 2-center Austria, especially with neither of your units in any position to work together adequately against one singular power. If I were in your shoes, I would certainly not have retreated home from Galicia and I would have tried to take Warsaw. You already know that you're losing centers at home, so it's important for you to maintain and squeeze yourself into positions that make you a great ally. No one wants to help a 2 or 1 center country defend his homeland from assault. It's much better to be the proverbial thorn in someone's side with units in particularly sensitive areas and ally with his enemies. In this instance, if you would have taken Warsaw and lost Vienna, you still have 2 centers like you would if you saved Vienna and not gained Warsaw. In addition, and clearly seen in this example, if you'd have tried for Warsaw, you'd be at 3 units with a build coming at home giving you more power, flexibility and room to negotiate. Better for you to have 2 units side-by-side and control of someone's home center than to only have your own. I give you until the end of 05 and then I expect that you and England will be walking out the door hand-in-hand. Good game, though, and things started out great. It looks like the Turkish NMR early on hurt you more than anyone.
#7 England: It's been a rough ride for you this game, but some of them are like that when they never have a chance to go uphill and only start downward. There's not much to say here, even if Russia has your good graces at heart. Now it's simply time to shake hands and wish everyone a good game.
Things to look for:
What's the dynamic going to be in the east? Turkey will be the biggest swing-vote in the year to come and there will either be a RIT, which I'm predicting, with Austria doing whatever Austria can do to survive, or there will be a Turkish stab to ply for the three-way with F and G. The other big question is whether or not Italy can hang in long enough to wait for the cavalry. France has already crossed the stalemate line and Italy is under-defended. If no one shows up with a fleet and some good graces, Italy will begin its downward spiral. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
bump again. FK, where'd ya go? - : Re: New Ghost-Ratings up
@Draug: My position dropped 5 places but my GR did go up 0.47, so take a look at that. As long as your GR is increasing, the positioning is going to fluxuate depending on the number of games other people complete in a given cycle. As long as I'm improving, eventually I'll pass the people that passed me. - : Re: Metal Pieces
better yet, go to boardgamegeek.com
You'll have to register but I'm sure you can post on their message boards asking people for some metal diplomacy pieces (to buy). Sometimes if you just need a piece or two, you can get it for free but I'm sure someone will sell you them for a reasonable price. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
S04 was pretty basic for a change. The west has strengthened and the east is finally beginning to coagulate. Ordinarily by now, one would expect to see both an eastern and western power out the door or close to it yet neither side has eliminated a player. Constant shifting has caused some distrust, particularly in the east and still in the west to some degree.
In the West:
#1 France: Initially, I had thought that France has essentially secured his position at the end of the game and should be switching from "how to draw" to "how to solo" mode with Germany at a close second. This season has changed some of that. His moves are obviously banking on a strong German ally with a retreat from the Channel and next to nothing along their shared border. This is the sort of setup that precedes a vicious stab and I firmly believe that whoever controls the Channel between E and F holds the most dominance and at this point, neither of them do. The Channel is France's gateway into German soil and a key staging point for defense. I wouldn't be surprised to see France at -1 unit at the end of this season.
#2 Germany: Although Germany's position isn't as secure as the French one, it's clear that F and G will continue to work together, meaning that Germany's next target will either be Russia or Austria/Italy, but one shouldn't rule out a French attack. Stabs are often made when one ally withdraws units from a secure position while expecting his ally to do the same under promises of continued cooperation and France has certainly done his part. The question is now going to be will Germany make the attack at London and cross the border, or maintain the alliance for a future stake elsewhere.
#3 England: Still hanging on but doing nothing. I understand that you're at the mercy of Germany, but you're not gaining much in the process. Under the wrong circumstances, you could be at 0 centers by the end of this year. Good luck.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the East
#1 Italy: Still the strongest country in the east, Italy stands to gain the most this season with a sure build at Venice and a possible second build coming to him. It's nice to finally see the army coming off Tunis, but I hope it's not too late since France has begun to filter armies around and Germany pushing south. If all goes well, we might be seeing an eastern power that can stand up to F or G and be a contender for a draw position at the end of the game. This season will lend strength to which of the two outcomes will take precedence.
#2 Russia: This spot was a tough one to call since there's been a lot of flip-flopping going on with allied partners. I think it was a good idea to regain the Turk as a friend and house-keeping has finally gotten to the point that Russia can begin looking for new soil, although the understandable loss of Smyrna will have to be replaced. Last, his position in the north allows for some measure of flexibility, I seriously doubt we will see the strong Russia that we saw last year.
#3 Austria: Not a very handsome position to be in, but nonetheless interesting. The loss of Vienna can be recouped but you're under way too many pressure points to be able to adequately concentrate on what to do this season. Germany pushing south, Italy pushing east and R/T working together means that there's a lot of bad news in Austrian air tonight. Certainly, he's going to be on the phone with Germany trying to convince him to stab France but if Germany doesn't bite, his only option is to push for any centers he can. In this situation, I tend to hold the belief that it can be better for you to stick your fingers into anyone's business that you can. Get units behind lines, into nooks and crannies and wherever they can cause the most damage and give you the most leverage with anyone you can.
#4 Turkey: Breathing once again! You've managed to talk your way out of the grave and stand to gain a build this season and at least one ally. Additionally, if there's a F/G, you're the only one not susceptible to its attacks and could net you a third position in a draw if you can manage to be useful enough and stick around. The biggest question you'll have to face, is what to build. Since you're crammed behind Bulgaria, an army isn't terribly helpful quite yet, but a fleet won't do you a great deal in the long run.
Things to look for:
In the West: Will there be a stab? It should be well-known to anyone who's solo'd a few times that in order to get to the magic 18, you have to cross the all-important stalemate line somewhere. For France, this has to be along Iberia and through the Mediterranean but for Germany, it's often along his southern border as well as through St Pete. Once these players have crossed their respective points and dug themselves into southern centers, the potential for a solo increases. If the two of them continue to work together, they move quickly across the line before anyone in the east can match the move but a solo will be difficult as long as they build pretty evenly. If a stab does occur, it will put one of them in the clear lead in terms of unit strength but they would have to forgo crossing the line for the moment. F04 will give the board more information to work with for the coming year and either one could see a build coming but one of them could also see a loss.
In the East:
Who's going to be the first man out? Italy could be facing the French while still working on Austria, Russia could be facing Austria and at -1 unit if things go bad, Turkey is on the upswing but still crammed in his corner and Austria is in a tight spot all around. One power should have been almost out the door by this point and if a F/G comes rolling by, it's going to wreck the east, especially under high-tension with no one able to really lay down a lot of trust for anyone else. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I'll have some commentary either some point tonight or Monday morning - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Seems to me like a EOG should wait until the end...? - : Re: I'd like to take a vote on a diplomacy issue.
C - If I were playing Russia, I'd assume that England will be tied up in western affairs for quite a while and the convoy was merely to get the army into a better location. I tend to view it as more anti-German than anti-Russian.
My opinion is that Russia shouldn't fear England in the opening. R's concern is in the east for the first few years and E's concern is in the west in the first few years. If E is pushing at St Pete and Swe early on, it's because there's a Western Triple. - : Re: My Dilemma
I would still make 2 $10 bets on the wheel (1 on black and 1 on red) just to ensure that each time you break even. Although the statistics say that you'll break even, this is next to never the case. Once you've played thousands of times, you'll be closer to that 50/50 but you'll probably never see it in actuality. The odds of a 50/50 split, even at the end of 1 day of 500 bets is less than 4% (3.57% actually). - : Re: Statistics from Tournament/League Games
I disagree with swordsman. There are differences among the countries and each has its own play style and some tend to be more relaxed than others. France, Russia and some others have an easier or broader play style that leads to success for a greater variety of players while Italy and Austria have narrower styles.
To illustrate, I've won as Italy in a tournament as have other players and I tend to do really well with Italy but concerning Turkey, I tend to do awful. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
As uncharacteristic as it is of me to comment on the builds, I will do so a little on this phase because there are some very interesting things that I see in the builds.
First off, neither France nor Germany built what I expected and this certainly declares their intended targets. France's interests are most obviously going to remain in the north with armies moving quickly to the German/French border because more units convoyed to the English Isle makes no sense and neither does an army move toward Italian soil without the necessary fleets for backing.
Germany will be in for a really rough ride since the fleet so far from the border indicates that his target was initially Russia and now with the Berlin army so far from his western line, he will be unable to stem the tide of French units moving toward the border. Beginning in the fall, I expect to see a French army in Picardy and Burgundy both and it is generally known that it takes 3 French units to hold the border and since a move to Pic and Bur would give him 4 units (including the fleet in the ENG) means that he will have a greater control of that edge of the zones. Germany's biggest benefit is that it can easily move Ber-Mun and Mun-Ruh to counter and the line would be locked but this does nothing for the French units along the waterways.
England: Love the army build in Edi. This will buy you some time if there's a F/G conflict, which I'm suspecting is the case, and you'll continue to survive under the German wing for quite some time.
In the south, everything was pretty much as I expected it to be. - : Re: People missing orders
I, for one, have a policy that I won't cancel a game once it has started unless there's a need by one of the players. If people CD in the early stages of the game or at critical junctures (not merely when they're basically dead and are giving up), I will talk to the remaining players and eliminate the CD'd players and draw the game. I believe that if you CD a country (not merely NMR because these things can happen) that you don't deserve to have your points refunded and you should have the CD mark on your record as a resign. That's all a cancel does. It refunds your points without displaying that you resigned in a game. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
+1 FK I tend to hold the opinion that the only alliances in the game of Diplomacy are those that you can force. If your opponent can stab you, they will. A stab occurs when one or more of the following conditions are met:
--Your opponent has more units closer or as close to your centers than you do
--Your opponent has no enemies but you are fighting currently engaged away from him
--Your opponent is gaining builds while you have none coming or you have disbands coming.
--There's a large separation between the number of units you have and the number he has
If you're in that situation, then you can expect that things might go sour and you need to anticipate that sort of thing. Look at their builds, look at their press (frequency as well as content) and look at the location of their units. - : Re: Hey France. . .
I know where this is going... - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Part of this has to do with the fact that there has been such a constant shift in alliances. In addition, the shifting isn't over. An alliance has to hang around for a while for it to really be an alliance and so far, in the west, France and Germany have worked well together but a) there has been some clear tension between the two and b) things could change even as early as the next season. . In the east, there have been no alliances. It's been a veritable free-for-all
Lastly, I can't really comment on why certain alliances haven't formed because this depends more on the diplomacy part of it and if I comment about how x-country should be working with y-country, it's more apt to change the course of events and it's something I don't want to do. I want the diplomatic points to be what they are and try to stay out of telling someone what they should do in future seasons as much as I can--being vague where I am able.
Both fair questions however. - : Re: Who was it...
I don't either but I live in southern Kentucky (Bowling Green) so stop on in sometime :) - : Re: Donator icons
How much is it to pay for a year at the site K? - : Re: This is why game mods don't want to mod the forum...
Vote for Pedro - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
On to F03: It seems that nothing is what it appears to be simply from glancing at the map. Things that looked one way last season look very differently in the autumn. For all you students, if you haven't learned how to read the board yet, now is the time to do so. Nearly half the board is coming away with growth and a fair portion is losing ground and there will be plenty of builds and destructions taking place that will indicate some things to come. Reading the board is a vital part of good Diplomacy and I would put money on the claim that anyone in the top 100 in GR has the ability to read the board fairly well.
In the West:
#1 France: Still on top with some nice and expected moves snagging two centers. Next season will spell some things out that I've been curious about. France will have a new enemy starting next year and the question boils down to who. This season I expect to see a fleet in Marseilles and an army in Paris. The French-German stalemate line is oddly empty and with new builds coming in this season, I expect to see at least one of them devoted to the line while the other probes for the new target. Italy is a primary target seeing no builds this year and two less centers than France but the going will be tough given that many of the French units will have to be devoted to the north to prevent a German stab because Germany will be doing some building and rearranging for the coming seasons as well (more on that below). Germany could also be a target for the new enemy given that G's relationship with R has been damaged. The biggest downside to this is the effort to cross their mutual border. Germany controls more units along that border and can easily out man France there and the only ways across would be via the French navy. Everyone should be reading the board after the winter phase goes through because depending on what that side of the board is like will determine the things to come.
#2 Germany: Germany is in a very strong position and one could argue that he's tied in the #1 spot for the west but his biggest downfall is that he's currently pinned between a French power that has more growth potential and no enemies on one side and a desperate Russia that continues to get slapped in the face by his prior German ally. It's a frequent thing to see F and G take out E only to have F and R squeeze him like the cream in a Diplomacy Oreo. He does have some very bright spots to his situation. The first is that he's coming away with 2 builds and the second is that France has next to nothing along the F/G border meaning that if France does indeed wish to cross it, Germany can easily get there first. This is truly where the move to Belgium pays off. Lastly, I really liked the self-standoff at Burgundy because it ensures the safety of Burgundy until additional units can be devoted to its defense. For builds, I expect to see an army in Kiel and fleet in Berlin. Anything else is screaming information.
#3 England: Still hanging on. The loss of Denmark isn't much of a surprise and you'd better believe that the support hold at Norway was only to keep Russia from gaining ground. Next year you'll lose the last of your centers. Germany will have an army in Edi and follow that with a fleet in Norway. I would put your downfall at the 01 builds with the double fleet and no armies on the Island. If you're losing, you can't expect to stay afloat unless you have an army on your home soil. It's more maneuverable than a clunky fleet and you can often stalemate someone from getting any builds and force their hand into allying with you if they know that you'll give all of your centers to the other guy. I'm sure that things went south diplomatically, but someone had to lose, so don't take this one to heart.
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In the East:
#1 Italy: This lead isn't necessarily fragile but it's not the #1 spot one might expect given that it's going into 1904. Usually by this point, one power in the east has 6-7 units or is at least keeping pace with the west. The west will see the downfall of their first player while the east continues to see shifting with no clear leader. No builds for the second straight season means that you're in danger of being the target of a new power. Your army is still on Tunis after a second straight botched convoy, you've got a fleet all the way in the Eastern Med with no allies there to support you, and I highly doubt you'll see any gains in the coming year. The double support hold along Austria's northern border was poorly planned and it should have been you with the build at Vienna and not Austria with a build coming in. To be truthful, you really shouldn't be in the top spot in the east but you are because no one has any real power to oppose that at this point. If things continue as they are, you won't be there next year. You need to pull yourself together, select a target, and make some real ground. If you don't get a build next year, you can count yourself out of this game. I don't mean for this to come across as so harsh, but sometimes sugar and spice doesn't get the job done.
#2 Austria: You're back on the upswing, I must say. You had some really great moves and a touch of luck on your side to see you on to where you are now. You'll have a much-needed army coming into play this phase and you'll have room to expand next year. I love the support of Turkey into Bulgaria and moving to Greece behind him whether it was agreed upon or not. If it was, more power to you. If not, oh well. You'll be seeing new gains next year at either Bulgaria or Warsaw, possibly both and even be able to keep Italy at bay if things go smoothly. Last year you were in danger of sliding to the bottom power in the east and Russia's heightened growth gave you some breath in your lungs. Your units are condensed and not spread out and you have very few holes in your defense. Next year will be really good to you. I expect to see a build in Budapest.
#3 Russia: Back down again. This season was not good to you at all. The worst move I saw out of you was the self-standoff at Sevastopol. Why? You had to have known that you weren't going to get any builds and were instead going to lose units, so it would have been far better for you to move Mos-Sev and use Ukr to support Rum. The fact that Austria now has an army in Rumania and one in Galicia is very bad news for you. Destroying a unit is going to be a very tough call. The biggest problem with Russia is that once you begin to decline, your elimination is almost a guarantee. On the one hand, if you ditch a unit in the north, you'll certainly have no claim over Norway and likely lose Sevastopol of Germany pushes the envelope in the north and continues to bring the fight to you but if you lose a unit in the south, you're opening up a hole somewhere along the line that will allow one of your numerous opponents to slip in. You'll need 2 units in Turkish soil in order to maintain control of your center down there but you'll need the two you have in your midsection even more in order to create some measure of stability. Your brightest speck of light is that you now have some negotiating room to lend to some of the players on the map. Diplomacy is the only thing that's going to get you out of this situation. I will say this as an aid, do as much as you can diplomatically before you submit your disband. I'm going to guess that the disband will be in Turkish soil, probably Syria.
#4 Turkey: Still at the bottom but I'd rather be in your shoes than England's or Russia's. You managed to stay afloat through a series of very bizarre twists. Italy supports you into Austria-controlled Greece in the spring and then Austria supports you out of Greece into Russia-controlled Bulgaria in the fall. Not sure who your ally is, but you've got to have one somewhere. I disagree with the self-standoff, though. I think it would have been better for you to move out of the Black Sea into Constantinople because Russia's got some disbanding to do and if he picks one of your zones, you might see a build coming. Things are still on the edge of a knife for you since an Austrian ally isn't a solid one and you've still got some negotiating to do in order to pull yourself up. I'd be talking pretty heavily with everyone because no one in the east has any room to turn away an ally and you've got some pretty key things to offer.
Things to look for:
In the west: French and German builds. These builds will speak volumes and the entire board had better tune in.
In the east: Who's going to seal the top spot? The west has essentially dropped down to 2 players and by now the east should have been down to 3 but all of the back-and-forth has changed the dynamic of what's going on and given the west a lot of unnecessary power. If France and Germany are going to continue to ally, they'll have a lot of stakes to place in eastern soil in the coming year. Someone needs to pull up and take the top spot. I expect that only 1 or 2 players will see builds next year with the remainder holding or losing ground. Second, what unit is Russia disbanding? This will also indicate some information for the careful reader. Lastly, will Italy ever get off Africa? At this point I believe that the army is manned by Gilligan. - : Re: Who was it...
FYI (everyone's I) I'll be working on some additional statistics this semester. Dunno if i'll get it done but I'm hopeful.
Some of the bigger projects include the minimum number of centers a country should want to control before it can feel comfortable that it has a draw position (90% likely), the "path to victory" and a layout of the various centers a country controls when it wins and it will be displayed in a thermal-style layout, and a spattering of other statistics mostly comparing the 'average player in online diplomacy' with the pros of online diplomacy, PPSC vs WTA, and online diplomacy vs PBM/PBEM and FtF in terms of win/draw percentages to see how similar they are. - : Re: Apparently I'm "Wrong."
@spyman: I rarely spend time answering religious questions on this site simply because they devolve into worthless arguing but occasionally, I'll take time to answer. It's not likely that I'll really spend time following this thread because KA's threads tend to be ridiculous (no offense KA, I'm just not that into these types of threads)
Whether or not there's a 'gay gene' or anything else is beside the point. God has established a natural thing from the beginning for opposite genders to produce progeny for mankind to survive. This was the scripted decision from the beginning but once sin entered the world (Genesis 3 with the fall of man) many things changed. Conflict entered the world and all things contrary to God's original design. The Bible says that the ground became hard to work, conflict among the animals began seeing a predator-prey scenario where once everything was originally vegetarian. People are drawn to rebellion against God and not toward obedience. Our natural inclination is to go against God. This is the basis of the sin nature and the Bible states that we are slaves to this nature until such a time as we accept Christ as our savior at which point we are set free (free from the bondage that sin holds on our life under a new master, although the fight between doing right and wrong persists while we are still part of this world).
This being said, homosexual relationships are natural for man because sin is natural for man. It's as natural as any other sin, be it the compulsory lying or stealing that some suffer from, also like alcoholism or other addictions, obsessions and anything else that rules our lives daily. Also, people born with the desires toward the same sex are also natural because we are born sinners. If this were not true, there would be some people that would remain sin-free their entire lives but because we are born with a sin nature, we desire to sin and must fight the urges to not sin. For this reason, you'll hear Christians say that they don't hate gays/lesbians (some cults do, but most don't) but rather they hate the acts of homosexuality because our ultimate fight isn't with the person but with the sin. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
@ FK: I totally agree that without the press, the moves are an incomplete story. I, for one, would have moved to Belgium as Germany did. If a bounce occurs again, France can't convoy to the Island and if there's no bounce and you agree to DMZ Bel, then you risk a stab (a small one which is usually near-worthless unless it nets you strong ground).
To me, the move is more defensive on Germany's part. - : Re: DiplomacyCast lives on!
Thanks guys! I was beginning to wonder about you both... - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Alright, as promised, I'm going to finish my post:
Things to look for:
In the east: as last turn: who gets Edi? It's still up for grabs and is looking like the French will control it at this point, although not anytime soon. Second, how will Russia handle the losses to his northern gains?
In the East:
Who's going to come out as the clear power. The west has nearly eliminated a country while the east is still broiled in combat and flip-flopping. At some point, someone has to be out so that countries can begin focusing attention on somewhere else. In 2 years, France and Germany could be picking new targets. Might be each other, might not.
Now, on to FK's comments. As I said earlier, there are some things I agree with and others I disagree with.
First, I don't agree with FK's assessment of the German move to Belgium. That was probably based on the fact that France had an army at Picardy and I mentioned that it's not a wise idea to allow anyone else to have units as close to your centers as you do. Germany should have had an army there to begin with. Germany's support of England was probably more about making sure there wasn't going to be a F/R in future years over simply helping England. I do think that it's not going to net him much but we'll see. Russia wasn't poised to take much outside Scandinavia as it was and a F/R would have been pretty weak in the north and the only fear Germany would have had was a build at War which could be countered by gains at England.
I also disagree with Italy helping Turkey. It's best to take on 1 opponent at a time and Italy's clearly after Austria. Better to get Turkey on his side than on Austria's side. I do agree with giving him Greece so early since he needed the unit in Albania and not Tunis but now faces the loss of Trieste or no gains this year for the second straight year in a row. His only bright spot is that the other countries are on the decline or merely maintaining and there's no longer a clear dominant force.
Lastly, I agree with his following season's assessments. I would have more to add but I will leave it alone to allow countries to play the game and try not to influence much in the following season.
@ uclabb: Your primary goal should simply be not to shrink. If you're down to two and going to lose more for sure, it's better to try to find a weakness in your opponent's defenses where you can slip in. This might give you the ability to not only hit him in the gut but also negotiate with the other players into helping you. Guarding your home centers often leads to losing them and a country that is losing shouldn't reduce himself to holding and supporting holds. However, there are times that you can hold out and convince one power to turn and support you because he's not going to gain ground but his opponents will. This will often lead someone to aid you and not fight you...usually, but not always. There are always players here that think 'staying the course' is the only way to go even if it means they lose in the long run, and it sucks playing with people like that. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
For the S03 moves, I will have quite a bit to say. Things are a mess all around this season as scales tip across the board. Very few people are in a real secure position (I dare say only one). I will first address the moves as I have always done, then I will disagree with FK on some issues and agree with him on others. Lastly, I will close with a comment to uclabb addressing his question, although it was originally intended for FK
In the West
#1 France: Not much has changed for this country. You're in a good position to continue making ground against England and it looks like you might be the sole owner of the Island if Germany keeps up on whatever he's doing. You'll see 2 builds this year barring German support of England and then have to make the decision on where to go next. On a sour note, your homeland is pretty bare. If there's going to be a stab, I expect that it will occur in the fall. Clearly, diplomacy is the bigger picture here. Lastly, I give France 2 years before being the dominant force in the west instead of a shared kingdom.
#2 Germany: The move to Belgium I can completely agree with. It's a defensive move along your border but the double support hold at your home centers? Not sure where you're going with that one. Additionally, you've turned a blind eye to England (also the product of successful negotiations on behalf of England) and are now concentrating on Russia. The next year will either be filled with glamor or filled with knives. It would have been better for you to simply take Denmark and move on to Edinburgh before beginning a new campaign. I'm guessing that you were fearing a F/R after the demise of England and decided to negotiate away Scandinavia before it became your downfall. However, with Russia only filtering armies into Swe/Nor, fear of losing ground to him was minimal at best, even if coupled with cooperation from France. Hopefully the future years will be good to you, but only time will tell.
#3 England: Although you managed to talk Germany into giving you soil in return for soil of your own, I think that this is merely relocating your units further from home. Soon, you'll be faced with French-controlled centers at home and you'll be temporarily vacationing in Scandinavia. It is good to see that you haven't given up hope yet and although you are in a tight spot, it's clear that you still have something to bring to the table. If you're not gone in 3 years, you will still likely be in the #3 spot.
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In the East
#1 Russia: Your grip on the south is waning but you still control a good position. Losses in the north will be staggering and you may even see additional losses in the south. I would attribute this to the Tall Poppy Syndrome. You were clearly unmatched in might last season weighing in 3 units stronger than your closest competitor and it made 4 people nervous enough to attack you. I expect that you will be sliding to the #2 spot by the end of this year with the loss of Sweden and Norway and possibly one location in the south. It looks like it will be time to get your house in order.
#2 Italy: I must first point out your blunder. It seemed like you were actually going to get your army off of little Africa but failed your convoy. That blunder will cost you some ground this fall. It would have been far better to get your army to Albania in the Spring and support Turkey in the fall. Things may not be an entire loss, however, and huge hits to Russia might put you back into a top position in the east. If you can manage to gain one center this season, you'll be back on track. Otherwise, it will be a year before you can gain some traction.
#3 Austria: Not entirely sure who you're allied with at this point. If things go completely awry, you'll be at the bottom of the list at the year's end. You'll have some very tough decisions to make about where to focus your units. In some respects, I'd rather be in Turkish shoes than your own but all is not lost. You will certainly lose Greece and then either be able to offset those losses with another gain, remain at the loss of 1 center, or if all goes wrong, you'll be down 2 centers. Out-thinking your opponents is the only real way to go at this point, and that type of action is difficult to do, especially given that you're not necessarily dealing with the scripted player for this game but also a TA on the other end. Good luck in F03.
#4 Turkey: I love the hit on Greece. It will give you some room to grow and some negotiating power if you play your cards right. I won't go into any details here but there are some things that I'd be keeping on the negotiating table for the fall that would really benefit you at this point. As for your back two...not your best moves...not your worst either, though. I'm not entirely sure what you were really going for on the far side. You had a very strange convoy listed and a hold with the army. I'm guessing that you expected Russia to convoy his army to Bulgaria and do what with the fleet? I'd have still coupled this with a move to Armenia to bounce any Russian movement there as well.
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More to come tomorrow. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
same here - : Re: Talk diplomacy
I disagree Onar, if everyone had that philosophy, nothing would get done. I tend to play the leader when I play and offer ideas and suggestions and call for others to input their ideas. - : Re: Italian Strategy - why is it always the same?
One more thing...I have been TAing for the Italian player in the SoW game 1 and told MM that I'd post my opening statements to the player in the EoG's, so anyone that's interested in some advice on how to play Italy, stay tuned. - : Re: Italian Strategy - why is it always the same?
I took the time to study Italian openings statistically and based on the data, Italy's success rate for French openings fared far worse than any other opening, even when moving units in bizarre ways. Additionally, the Austrian openings tend to be the most favorable but I believe they are generally over-played.
To also add a bit to what the others are saying about French attacks, the best times to attack France is when there's a Western Triple Alliance simply because you do so out of necessity. If you look at the time it takes Italy to make gains in France, he is at least a full year from taking Marseilles and only then it's by outguessing your opponent and not by sheer force. Spain is a year and a half away even if you have a fleet already in the water while Portugal is 2 years away or more. Couple that with the fact that France can produce the necessary fleets to block you out along the stalemate line and your armies bottle-neck along Switzerland, an anti-French campaign is difficult at best and requires a very helpful Germany to do successfully. Lastly, attacking the French means turning your back on Russia and Turkey. While neither is a threat initially and Russia takes a while to reach your soil, after Austria is gone, you'll have to turn your attention east and you certainly don't want to be caught in the middle of a war in the west when an eastern country comes knocking. - : Re: School of War
+1's all around. If you'd like, Marshall, follow along in the current SoW and maybe pose questions to the Prof's in the respective threads. After the two current games are over, I'm sure you'll find a fair cropping of people willing to dedicate to the next season of SoW. The current games running are pretty intense with one about to enter the midgame and the other still in the early stages. A long pause for both games have slowed progress so you didn't miss much. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
good to hear FK. Nice to have you on board. - : Re: Other turn-based multi-player strategy games online
No problem. My name on Catan.com is ninjaj...my avatar is a chick, though. It's sorta funny but I created the female avatar because under my old avatar, I saw that guys would target other guys before they targeted a female, even if she had the same number of points and more dev cards or a better setup than her male counter-parts, especially if she was talkative (wink wink).
@SD: FtF is the preferred way because talking can become a big part of the game and it's more personable. Plus, the online version has the drawback in that people have the tendency to quit if something happens that they don't like. I've cut people off when building roads and had them quit, some people have quit because you keep rejecting their crappy trade offers and others have quit because they are having their butt handed to you. You can always find someone to take their place but it does take time. Online, the average game takes about 30 minutes, give or take. I've completed some games in 15 minutes and others in an hour depending on how quickly or slowly the others take or if you have a bunch of people quit continuously.
If you decide to start an account on there, look me up, and if you're new, I recommend joining games already in progress that are waiting on subs because if you lose, it doesn't affect your record but if you win, you get the points. The drawback is that for your 'ranking', the number of games you start from the beginning has to constitute 75% or more of the total games you've played. - : Re: Postal Diplomacy
My point exactly. I might be interested in giving it a try if some good players were going to play. - : Re: Other turn-based multi-player strategy games online
there are several sites to play AA online, one of the most common is triplea.sourceforge.net/mywiki. It has mods on it and a variety of games to play.
I haven't played AA in a long time because of the unbalanced nature of the game. Given a number of players of equal strength, the game has a bent toward the allied team. Plus the turns are pretty much the same each round and you see very little variation unless you play new players.
One game I'd love to see make it online is Shogun/Samurai Swords. I own a copy of the out-of-print board game and would love to play again. That and the old Avalon Hill Civilizations board game.
I'll also offer to play anyone at Settlers of Catan and put em on my friends list, but beware, I'm pretty good. I have about a 60% win rating. I'm always looking for some good competition and I've thought about entering the world-tournament at Gen Con Indy. The winner gets to play at Germany, all expenses paid in the Finals. - : Re: Postal Diplomacy
This would have also been better as a gunboat to ensure no one posts on this site. - : Re: A trend I have recently noticed
I agree totally with that. I'm just now making the jump to 100+ D point pots. What I don't want to happen for myself is that I play one bad game in a 100+ point pot and it depletes my total points and I have to return to low pot games. This is especially true since I have made the switch to WTA. - : Re: Other turn-based multi-player strategy games online
War at Sea and Axis and Allies come to mind. The one I play most commonly right now is Settlers of Catan (which is nothing like Diplomacy but still fun) and I play it at catan.com. It's free to play the basic game (good enough for me) but you can pay to play the variants/expansions and their crappy "rpg" if you wanted to. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I don't mind touching on this issue to some degree but I also left it alone in my commentary because I see some things that are likely coming down the pipe and I didn't want countries changing what they were planning to counter for these issues. It's up to the TA's to spot certain things and assist their students which I should say, to this point, they have all done a fine job in working with their students. A country losing, or being in a poor spot is inevitable and even the best find themselves there. Secondly, someone has to be at the bottom and I think that even though the advice they're likely giving at this point might not be winning the game for some countries, the advice is likely applicable in a large majority of games they play and I would love for the students to carry with them the nuggets they've heard so far and not merely discard them because they lost in this game.
To begin with, I read an article a little while ago from Diplomacy World issue 2 I believe (might be issue 3, I'd have to look it up) where the writer talked about countries controlling Scandinavian centers. He made a good point in saying that any country that wishes to dominate these centers must have a strong naval presence because Armies can't take most of the territory alone. Denmark and Sweden each have only 2 access points via land and Norway has 3. This means that to occupy these locations and maintain control requires the conqueror to have the upper hand in the naval battle convoying units and supporting holds from off-land locations. He went on to say that of all the countries, only 3 had any claim to the centers (E/G/R) and they each had varying claims to lay. England, with its naval might, had the greatest say in the matter and can unequivocally take Norway outright in the first year. Additionally, England can produce up to 3 fleets in any given year helping to dominate the various locations necessary to control the centers and that even where St Pete is concerned, it's much easier to take it from the west than it is to maintain control of it from the east. Germany had the second say in the matter taking Denmark without opposition, and in any given year, can produce only 2 fleets. This power helps to be able to take and secure the 3 primary centers and St Pete with some degree of success but not with the degree that England can if they have an equal number of units on the map focused on taking the locations. Russia, on the other hand, has the least control over any of the region because not only can it produce only 1 fleet per year, that fleet must be dedicated to either the north side of Scandinavia or the south side limiting its capacity for control. In addition to this, it is not guaranteed a center in that area in 1901 which is unlike any of the prior two powers because Germany can bounce Russia out of Sweden if it so chooses. Lastly, locking up St Pete (which we see in this game) is pretty easy to do and prevents Russia from producing more units to maintain control of the 3 centers. This problem is something that all Russians must eventually cope with whether it is consciously or unconsciously done and much of it comes down to diplomatic negotiations early on. - : Re: A trend I have recently noticed
I agree with obi that D points matter very little toward overall win/draw percentages. I have played in generally lower-pot games, especially the Master's tournament which were 5 per game against pretty stiff competition. I have also seen several people with nearly 1000+ D points who certainly didn't deserve it because they got most of them from one or two games or from decent survival positions, and we can all say that surviving with 12-15 centers is nothing compared to the guy who won. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
You're right, France did indeed support the German fleet into the North. The yellow line is hard to see on my computer and when I looked at the orders, I misread them. +1 Yonni.
England still should not have moved as he did, and botched his ability to survive. The coordination between F/G/R is decently coordinated given that 3 countries are working in tandem. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
This season saw some very good, some good, some bad and some very ugly moves. It also saw probably the best and worst moves of the game and we will get to each of them in turn.
In the West:
#1 France: Smashing the top position in two excellent moves put him into the clear top spot. The first (and least among his excellent choices of moves this season) was the movement behind the English Island instead of trying for London. Although this doesn't net a build, I strongly believe that it is better to forgo a build attempt in lieu of a stronger position that will yield future gains and this move was one example of that. The pay off will be at Liverpool and at least one other center while maintaining a strong position to keep anyone from stabbing him.
The second move (and this was worth a picture) was the support move for the English fleet for London. For those that may not recognize it's beauty, France (or possibly Germany) recognized that there could be a bounce between two English fleets at London to keep France out of London yet still maintain control of the North Sea, and therefore supported the North Sea to London to allow the NTH fleet move to succeed and guarantee Germany a move to control the sea zone and push England to a spot that couldn't be used as a future defensive position in the year to come. The support move to trump a self-standoff rarely finds a place where it can effectively do anything but every time it can do something and is employed, it is always amazing, and this one was picture-perfect even though it wasn't necessary.
#2 Germany: Control of the North Sea was paramount to dominating England and who better for the sea zone to go to than G. England's blunder of supporting a hold on Denmark (more on that later) played out to Germany's favor and not only has G successfully ensured between 1 and 2 future builds next year, he has also sealed off his homeland from easy invasion. The only thing I disagree with is the bounce at Bel. Although I understand that it was a defensive maneuver to keep the NTH out of Bel and still maintain security of Hol, I wouldn't have done it. England had far too much to worry about to deal with whether or not he would move to Bel or Hol and the bounce wouldn't have been necessary. It merely allows France to be the same distance away from one of his centers as he is, and that's not recommended. A player should (almost) always be closer to his centers than his allies and opponents both in order to prevent stabs.
#3 England: While the best move of the game (thus far) goes to F with the support move for the English fleet, the worst move of the game goes to England in not merely being duped into a self-standoff at London but rather *willingly* giving up the North Sea with his own support to move to London. It's common knowledge among the veteran players that fleets do not have the defensive capability as armies for E. An army at home and sitting at Yorkshire can move to any one of his 3 home centers while a fleet positioned at any point in the Island can only protect two of them at best and in order to go from 1 center to another, a fleet must traverse its way around the entire Island which takes anywhere from a year to a year and a half to make progress--not something that any player on the rocks wants to see. The North Sea helps control this imbalance among fleets and armies in times of defense. The North Sea is the most vital of all sea zones in the game bordering 7 centers, half of which are under English control by the end of 1901, and more so in this game given that England controlled Denmark. By vacating the NTH, he gave up any possibility of defending himself and instead crawled up into a little ball to die a horrible death. Edi is undefended, Liverpool is poorly defended and by the end of next year, he may be down to just 1 center. He surely had to make some tough decisions on which locations to not defend and he selected Norway when it should have been Denmark. The first thing Denmark should have done is to convoy to the Island at Yorkshire while the fleet in Wales moves to London. This would have gotten an army on the Island and Skaggerak could have supported a hold on Norway or even supported Nwy-Swe for a possible gain. He cannot defend Denmark forever against Germany and giving it up now would have meant giving up less later. I usually try to look for a bright spot in a difficult position, but here, I see none. If he cannot negotiate his way out of this cesspool he has found himself in, he will be eliminated instead of surviving. I do not at all expect he will participate in a draw for this game.
Things to look for in the west: When will the next stab come and who will do the stabbing? In my analysis of various players, one common thread I saw among the various TA's in both this SoW and the other one was that of the early stab. Often a country will ally with another until they gain a clear foothold on their opponent. At that point, and before their common enemy is eliminated, it was seen that one ally turns on the other before the other can do the same to him and a stab could be in the works within the next year or two (or it may never come). At this point, Russia has a strong presence in the west controlling all of Scandinavia and will have something to say about who gets the blade. F/G/R could all see the brunt of an assault by a combined force of the other two and I expect to see a clear standout in the west to develop within 2 years.
Second, who will get Edi? Clearly France will control Liverpool and Russia gets Scandinavia but it could be that Germany gains Lon and Edi or only Lon while R gets Edi, or even the French controlling the northern center. My opinion is that it goes to G and London is between F and G but R has some measure of say given that G will gain Den this next year. Whoever controls Edi will help determine the future stab.
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In the East
Things in the east are also consolidating and clear winners are beginning to develop.
#1 Russia: Russia's excellent year led to massive gains across the board with +2 centers and a strong foothold and presence in both the east and the west. +2 builds, Austrian support, Turkey's support blunder (that to come) and Italy making no clear voice on Austrian soil all led to Russia's top spot and by no small margin. Russia was also notably the only player on the map last season to gain centers from the prior year and well out-performed his peers. The big shocker here was Bulgaria going to Russia for a second build and it's easy to see that all of Turkey will go to Russia. At this point, R has secured a draw position for himself and now is working toward the solo.
#2 Italy: Italy made a less-than-stellar decision around Austria which, coupled with Russian advancement, dropped him from the top spot in the east. Italy's good move was getting a fleet into the ION that can now convoy the army off Tunis where it has been stranded for far too long but his holding in the north led to possibly no gains next year. A note for the others, once you have a player on the ropes defensively, the most inadvisable thing to do is to spend your time holding. Italy needs a unit in Tyr in order to make gains against Austria. Secondly, if there is some strange A/I alliance going on here, Austria attacking Tri while Italy holds is a pretty poor choice of offensive for either of them to gain ground. Italy needs to find where his next build is coming from and he will be hard-pressed to find it.
#3 Austria: Austria this season appears to have only supported the lion against the wolf. His support of Russia gaining Bul should have been switched to Austria gaining Bul instead. Turkey is on the defensive and Russia's control of Bul means that he ill gain all of Turkish soil with no one to dispute it. The only thing Austria can do now is negotiate away one of Russia's centers in the coming year in return for the support this year. I get the feeling, however, that the only thing that will happen is that Russia will run over both Turkey and Austria.
#4 Turkey: Ouch. An NMR and then a failed support hold out of the BLA guaranteed his demise. Had he successfully supported a hold on Bulgaria instead of ordering the unit to move, he would have been in a much more secure position and even have the possibility of getting out of the bottom spot. I love ya man, but you've got to somehow get your head back in the game. Now Turkey will have to find a way to negotiate away an even more dismal position against a clearly superior Russua. Next year I anticipate the loss of another center unless you can find an ally.
Things to look for in the east: when will Russia slow down? - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
ARRRRRRG!
I had a really long commentary almost complete and my son just turned off the computer and I lost everything...I will retry to comment on everything but if I can't get it done now, I will do so sometime today. Sorry all. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
TBH, the proffing has gotten a bit stale without a second prof to discuss things with or people from the general community asking questions. That being said, I will propose the following:
After I post my commentary, I invite the students themselves to ask questions about my commentary. Examples might include why I said what I did concerning a country on the map, or why I'm predicting what I am but I will limit my answers to include only answering about questions concerning my commentary in general. I won't answer questions about what I think another country is going to do unless I directly post that in my comments and I won't offer suggestions for a player to do or say in the game itself since that's the job of their TA. This would bring a bit of life to the thread and might bring some life back into from a 2-week pause.
This is my suggestion and if there's no interest, I'll simply carry on as we are but the option is on the table. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
You'd have to talk to goldfinger0303 about that. He's hosting the SoW this season and knows whether or not there are alternates standing by. If he does, then they are the first option, but I'm sure he would allow you to add your name to the list. Lastly, if he allows it, he would have to contact a Moderator to swap the two of you out. - : Re: School started today......
I've got
Calculus III (multi-variable calculus)
Differential Equations
Research Methods
Elementary Spanish (easy A)
so, CA, if you need help with pre-cal, lemme know.
Psychology - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
So we're looking at 1 person leaving within 3 to 4 game years and another disinterested player in a game that's still paused? Hmm. Just out of curiosity, Cachimbo, if you're planning on leaving this game after all yours are completed, why take time to join a new one?
So we're waiting on BenGuin? Who initially asked for the pause? If it wasn't BenGuin, I recommend that if we haven't heard from him by Wednesday that we have a mod force-unpause it and if he goes into CD that we get a substitute together. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Ya, I think a 2-week pause was pretty excessive. A sitter would have been a bit better or simply subbing out for the alternate student. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Sometime soon I hope. I think either early next week or early next decade. Someone once said it would be 14 days or 14 years, I forget which. - : Re: Recruiting for a new game
The game is currently up. Sorry Riphen. If you'd have gotten to me earlier I'd have considered it. - : Re: Recruiting for a new game
no problem. I'm sure you'll be there soon enough.
@ Cachimbo: if the game starts and you're not up for it, we can pause, I'm sure. - : Re: Recruiting for a new game
Ok, I'll add Cachimbo to the list, make it non anon with 2-day phases. I'll throw in the password and after everyone's joined if I haven't heard from someone else who wants to play, I'll publicly post the password unless any of you know someone who might like to join.
The official list is:
Webpoca
qtlp
fortknox
Tru Ninja
Zultar
Cachimbo
Lastly, I'll create the game now but put a 2-week deadline to allow Cachimbo to join when he can. - : Re: Recruiting for a new game
bump again - : Re: The adjudication of...
@ Sergeant: You're thinking of a convoying fleet. A fleet will successfully convoy an army unless it is dislodged, and a lone unit can't sever a convoy. A lone unit can cut support, on the other hand. - : Re: Recruiting for a new game
bump. I guess a lot of new threads were posted since I responded to this early this morning (well, technically yesterday morning) - : Re: Thank You, Geofram!
I like Geofram too, he's pretty cool in my book, although I don't think I've ever played ya in a game G. - : Re: Recruiting for a new game
No probs Cachimbo. I'll put you down as 'tentative'
This makes the list:
Webpoca
qtlp
fortknox
Tru Ninja
Zultar
-------------------------------
Cachimbo if the game doesn't start soon
The general consensus seems to be 2-days (which I like)
2 more to go if I can get em soon, 1 if not. - : Re: Recruiting for a new game
There won't be, so I'll plug ya in :) - : Re: Recruiting for a new game
That makes 3 and most want the 2-day phases. The list is:
Webpoca
qtlp
fortknox
Tru Ninja
3 more. - : Re: Recruiting for a new game
I'll put the two of you down. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
bump - : Re: Gen Con
I'm 5 hours out but it's well worth the travel time. I thought Babak was going to be there and Jacob went to Gen Con but played in a Settlers tournament instead. - : Re: Recruiting for a new game
I'll create the game after I get 6 dedicated people for a troll-free game. You can post interest here or PM me and I'll add you. - : Re: Gen Con
I didn't get the opportunity to go to Gen Con this year :(
I'm going to go next year, however, and I will seriously contemplate joining the tournament then. I'd like to play-test some games and take part in the auctions so as long as everything fits in my schedule, I'd love to go. The last year I went was the year Gary Gygax died and they had the monster d20 in the lobby taking d20's to auction on his behalf. My buddy donated a d20 and then bought one at the auction and got his own d20 back. - : Re: Medical advice
Geez, Thucy, even when you're not on webdip you keep getting stabbed... - : Re: How to restart games? Unpause?
I'm currently in 2 games that will have to be mod-unpaused. 2 CD's in one game and a douche in another. - : Re: Math help
gotta love logarithms. You'll really love em when you start differential equations... - : Re: All Hail Kestas!
BTW, thanks a lot kestas! I can feel the speed already. - : Re: All Hail Kestas!
I tried playdiplomacy.com
wasn't a fan. Plus their archives left *much* to be desired. On top of that, in order to even access everything, you have to pay. It might be only 1 euro or $1 per month but it's still money and you lose out on certain features if you don't pay. barf. - : Re: Steroids take Chuck Norris
A long time ago Chuck Norris punched a horse in the chin. It's descendants today are called giraffes to their shame. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
lol. I'm glad for the bumps though. I was gonna do it myself. - : Re: Dunecat's Large pot game
That pot is currently a bit out of my ability to front the cash for. - : Re: Question for players
What I don't like to see is several people with poor GR's and they play in a lot of games together and ally all the time. It's not really scary but definitely something I take strong note in. After you get high up in GR, you play with a lot of the same people over and over again.
Anon games are a bit nerve-wracking for me because I'm used to being able to see the profile of the other players and the time stamps on when they are on/off or how long they have been logged off. I use that information so much it sort of throws me off when I don't see it.
Seeing a bunch of people with poor records doesn't scare me either and I have yet to have someone target me because of my D points or GR. - : Re: Dunecat's Large pot game
Depending on what's going on at that point, absolutely. - : Re: New Ghost-Ratings up
I'll wait till next month Draug. I had 4 draws and 2 defeats. Also, the comp shut-down caused me to turn a solo into a draw, a possible solo into a 5-way, and two 3 ways into 4-ways. So, yeah, it sucked.
@MM, you know you won't really retire. You'll take a break and want to get back into it later on. I'd be surprised if you left for good. - : Re: New Ghost-Ratings up
Up again to #48. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
No prob Ivo. We'll carry on :) - : Re: After nearly 3.5 years, I finally finished 100 games!
I've done several global posts in an effort to get people to do what I need. Usually it works, sometimes it doesn't. - : Re: After nearly 3.5 years, I finally finished 100 games!
That's pretty cool. I've been on this site for nearly 3 years myself and only amassed under 40 games. I'll probably have 45 by the time December rolls around.
I enjoyed playing you in the Masters last year and I'm sure we'll play again. - : Re: Pending multi/meta/cheating investigations
The mods are doing fine. It's difficult to police metagaming but they will do everything they can.
The bottom line is that I have played in several games where people were multiing or metagaming. In all of my games like this, no multi or meta player has ever won or participated in a draw. If you can look at a player's profile early, it's much easier to detect and you can eliminate the threat early. If you don't pick up on it until later, it's still easily possible to band the rest of the board together and eliminate the possible threat before it gets out of control and most players will agree to it.
The bottom line is that there's little to no reason to bother posting the accusations in the forum. Just create a little in-game vigilante justice. - : Re: So how do you win?
Emperor is right. That's not much help. It's a very straight-line means to an end that works in only a select amount of games.
Ultimately, your ability to win comes down to
1) Effectively reading the board to determine what the other players are going to do with their units
2) Effectively communicating with the players and taking the best route possible. That sort of thing may or may not ever come. Some players learn how to talk to the other players while some never pick up some of the nuances. You have to know what they want given the country they're playing, talk extensively with people to make and keep allies. You don't have to talk to someone first but you do have to talk to them more than the other players. You also have to be able to pick up on when someone's lying to you. There are a lot of methods or things to look for but some of it is simply intuition.
Vary your games by your needs and what you hear around the board. When playing as any given country, it doesn't mean allying with the same country over and over because it worked the first time but how you move and who you work with or stab is totally dependent on what's going on in that individual game.
Lastly, you need to know your options, look a season into the future and anticipate what you'll need, what others will need and don't get locked down into set-in-stone goals. Too often, players can only go forward if one path works. Be fluid, learn from your mistakes and keep talking to people, even when they're losing or kicking your butt. - : Re: Western Triple vs Eastern Triple.
AFT and RIE are a little more complex because they share players on both sides of the stalemate line. If I were to guess, however, it would be the AFT simply because Italy is pinned between a very secure France and an Austrian who could devote his full attention to taking down Italy quickly while Turkey gained a fair share of the Balkan builds. Italy would lose Venice in 01 while being able to maintain with a Tunis build but then, with a unit (or two) heavily out of place, the remanider of his centers would fall to a French fleet build in Mar and the increasing Austrian forces.
Germany is really needed to make positive gains against the French and England can't do it alone, and so France would stalemate England in the north for at least a second year. The biggest benefit for the other alliance is definitely Russia having the potential to see up to 3 builds in 1901.
I could ultimately see it going either way but I would lean toward the AFT. - : Re: LAST PERSON TO TROLL WINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wow...the posts on this thread are among the most unintelligent I've ever seen. I'm guessing that you guys spent your spare time slapping yourselves in the head with bricks to see if change would fall out. It's a good thing that you all managed to collect like an inbred ooze to this one thread because I'd hate to see this much mindless dribble escape into various useful portions of this site. Maybe if you can combine all of the idiocy together you could form the mentally retarded version of Captain Planet. I'm sure that the post following this one will be equally beneficial. Whoever it is, why don't you share your moronic aptitude for everyone to see. - : Re: fucked up server
Hellalt and nearly everyone here go way back. If you've played with him once, you remember it for a lifetime. If you can tolerate it once then you sorta get sucked into future games with him eventually. He's like the black hole of profanity and trolling except it goes out instead of in.
I honestly can't imagine this site without him and he's pretty much the only Diplomacy troll I can handle. The rest are irritating. - : Re: The Statistics of Diplomacy
They're mine. I don't care if it's passed around, so PSMongoose, you can email me at joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu to receive a copy or get them from anyone else who has them. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Wow, a 2-week pause? That's going to hurt the game since everyone is going to have to return to the game and catch up on the action and rethink plans. I'm the type that thinks about the game during downtime like what to say to whom and developing possible plans for the coming season and so a 2-week pause would crush the flow of possibly all 7 players.
I'm interested to see what's goes down after the unpause. - : Re: Western Triple vs Eastern Triple.
And that's saying that Italy is helping the east and not merely CD'd. - : Re: Western Triple vs Eastern Triple.
E/F/G hands down:
1) Germany builds directly along the stalemate line and can push units directly to it quicker than any other country in the game and can limit Russian progress in the north right out of the gate with 1901 builds in Munich and Berlin to compliment
2) France can hit the southern seas quicker than Italy can get fleets into the MAO meaning France has also crossed the stalemate line in the south. If France is given 3 builds, that's an additional 2 fleets and an army coming into play at critical junctures, and the fleet has instant access to areas across the stalemate line in S02 while the Italian fleet is way too far away to even make the difference. France would take Tunis or make headway into Italy before the Italian could defend and a French convoy could seal the deal.
3) England has the clear fleet advantage in the north ensuring that France has backup in the south and can take St Petersburg without problems and Russia is near powerless to stop him from advancing since Russian units have to face the dual threat of Germany and England in a quick start.
4) Turkey is so far from the action it takes 2 full game years to get into a reasonable position to begin to do anything. - : Re: League Format for next Season
If there are any openings in the Leagues, I'd be interested in possibly giving it a try. It's been a long time since I played in the Masters and I enjoyed it. - : Re: How the hell does one succeed as Turkey?
Since the thread made a comeback, I will post some things that I feel others should do. When I'm playing Russia or Austria, it doesn't really matter to me how well Turkey is doing unless he's doing better than I am. As a general rule when playing Italy, on the other hand, things are different. It's been my experience that Italy thrives in a 2v2 battle. Thus, my suggestions to all Italian players is to become the detective of the board and determine who wants to fight who and side with the underdog. The reason for this is that in the eastern conflict, you're the odd man out. No one has any means by which to affect you directly for at least the first whole year and that's assuming that you absolutely suck. If you're a decent player, then you have nothing to fear for the first 2 full years and sometimes beyond. When R/T is fighting A, ally with A. When A/T is fighting R, ally with R and when A/R is fighting T, ally with T. The reason for this is simple. Everyone wants an ally and when a player is faced with a heavy assault from 2 players, they desperately want someone to be on their side. When you ally with the underdog, you gain that 'friend' that is far less likely to stab you than anyone else on the board, even in later years (not to say they won't but simply that they're less likely to do so when compared to someone who didn't have the stress in the early years and have someone pull them out of a jam). Second, by allying with the weaker guy, you stand a higher chance of gaining a 5th center someplace because you actually have someone willing to support you in. If you have a 3-way against 1 country, Italy is always going to get the small share of the cake and it usually comes after everyone else had their piece. If Italy plays this way, then Turkey will always have an ally somewhere and Italy is usually a place I like to start. - : Re: Collaborative Story...
(7) Hours later, her date still hadn't showed. So like him and every other male. She's been toying with thoughts of suicide because she hasn't had a good lay in years. Depressed, she goes over to the mirror lying on the coffee table, and shaking she uses the razor, the one she pulled from her Bic after shaving her legs, and begins hashing lines of coke together. A few snorts later and everything was calm again. She stumbles over to the balcony overlooking the busy street corner and jumps 20 floors straight down fracturing her skull and spilling her insides across 13th avenue. It was best of times, it was the worst of times. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
As the only Prof in this thread, (where ya at Ivo?) I'll post for the Spring. Some things have changed and some players made some really great choices in moves that I will comment on.
#1 France: France and Germany are nearly tied for the top position in the west but given that the French have no units even remotely near their centers gives them the freedom to make mistakes and experiment with getting units into position that Germany simply doesn't have the luxury of. The English gang-up has also dropped England into a very compromising position and France was able to successfully vault himself into the prime spot this phase. The southern fleet move along the coastline indicates clearly that he has no intentions of moving west which is a good move, not to mention that it's certainly much faster than taking to the waters. Far too often, players try to start taking on a second target/opponent prematurely in order to secure locations across the stalemate line, and F/I are prime candidates of this type of play. They both want to get the jump on the other country but try to do so while still heavily embroiled in the affairs of their respective circles. France will certainly see a build this season or next depending on how well France can predict English moves. I expect, however, that F will play it safe and move into position this season and make gains in the next year.
#2 Germany: At the #2 spot, Germany is suffering the brunt of English attacks and needs to be careful in the coming years. The French alliance is going to pay off but not as quickly as it will for F. The outcome will be one of two things: if Germany can get a foothold this season and reduce England then he will have less to worry about in the coming season but if the English can successfully stave off the assault on their east then it's plausible that the F/G would become a E/G due to the strain that comes from stagnant positions and a growing France. In the end, Germany has no fear of losing this second place spot any time soon.
#3 England: The F/G has begun to make headway and England will not be making ground any time soon. The second fleet build will undoubtedly cause problems in defense since the only competent way in defending the Island from assault is having a standing army around for maneuverability. The fleet-clogged waters along Germany/Scandinavia means that no one is going to make gains or losses there unless a very cohesive F/G/R has a clearly defined head guiding the lot of them. Losses to England will come at home but I don't anticipate that it will occur this season but certainly next unless England can do some slick negotiating with his neighbors. It's certainly not unfathomable for England to turn the tide with someone and we may eventually see a shift in alliances.
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In the east, things are a little less clear-cut and a simple path for some countries is less defined. The 4 countries mucking about will cause a lot of shifting in positions and we are already beginning to see some of that from the residue of Spring moves.
#1 Italy: Italy is still holding on to that top spot but not by much. He will be strained to see gains this season and if he comes away with a build, it would be by the good graces of another country and not by his own strength. It's expected to see a slew of support orders this season and with an army stranded on Tuins means that not much will happen until it's back into a useful position. Greece is a possibility for a future build, even this season but I expect that if Greece goes to anyone it will be under Turkish control.
#2 Russia: Naturally, Russia has climbed up the ladder after turning on the Turk (sort of). This should have been a bit expected given that the fleet has no ability to really do anything other than move on him. The army slide from Sev-Arm was a great choice in putting pressure on Turkey and causing him to extend his reach with his units possibly to beyond capacity. The early move of Mos-Sev in 1901 is still causing backlash in preventing him from snagging that top position. Had Sevastopol been empty for a fleet build, Russia could have dominated the Black Sea and secured the top spot for a long time to come. At this point, he is the most likely candidate for a build this year. As far as his position in the north is concerned, it looks promising. As long as there isn't a shift in alliances, then Russia has some small measure of a future up there for a long time but he must remain the hinge that others rely on for expansion.
#3 Austria: Austria is prime for receiving an ally. If he doesn't have one in Russia (and he should) then he will continue his slide down to the #4 spot. Seeing Austria in a troubled fashion is beyond what I anticipated in the beginning and my prediction was that Austria would have started and remained strong through the entire game and would be participating in a draw. A surprise twist and some misfortune in an early NMR seems to have hurt him more than any other player on the board. His position teeters on edge and depending on Russia, Austria will fold in 2 years or stabilize through the remainder of this year and see possible growth in the next. He may possibly lose 1 center this season or none if the cards are played correctly.
#4 Turkey: His position may change soon and be swapped with that of Austria but it's also a possibility that he will suffer additional losses at the hands of Russia. His position means that he will have to make difficult decisions on whether to take a chance on Greece and see a possible loss at a home center or protect everything he has and gain no ground. Diplomacy, however, is a game of risk-taking and the player who spends his time supporting units all day is not going to win. Holding here or there during times of tension is a reasonable choice but not as a regular thing. What Turkey does tend to have going for him is that everyone seems to be talking to him regularly and although alliance shifting has caught him in the proverbial "Achillies' Heel", I don't expect that he's quite on his way out the door yet. This season could very well be a make-or-break season if he tries to be daring.
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Things to look for this season is 1) what's going on along the German controlled coast. A lot of this has to do with Russia and the turning of the tides. England could negotiate some things to get himself into a better position against France but it would mean having to make sacrifices along the way and depending on where Russia stands in the conflict could mean the difference between England holding steady or walking toward the exit sign. England needs an army on the Island but at the same time he needs to interrupt the flow of events currently on the docket. 2) What will Russia do in the south. The move to Galicia could mean a sign of Austrian support or it might mean helping Italy. Second, is there an alliance shift going to occur yet again? This season could mean stagnation for everyone involved or small gains by one or two countries as units shift about and jockey for a better position. - : Re: Doofman returns!
Ya, that was a really bad game for me, too. I was pretty noob back then. Course, under some people's standpoints I'm still pretty green having played less than 40 games total. - : Re: Are you ready for some Football!!!?
+1 Alderian. I'm tired of having Sports Center bogged down during the 5 months of regular season football by baseball and basketball crap. Football is around for 16 short regular games and just a month of post season play and you have to talk about the hundreds of games in baseball and basketball? geez - : Re: Doofman returns!
lol. I bet if you didn't step in and point it out, he'd have kept on going.
WB doofman, although I have yet play with you. - : Re: Are you ready for some Football!!!?
I'd have gone with Matt Ryan. The talk is that Chris Johnson isn't going to have as great a season as he had last year because everyone's going to plan for him much like they did Adrian Peterson. Johnson's a good sleeper if he does well in opening games but he might not. Ryan's consistent and I'd even pair him up with one of his receivers because if Ryan does well then so are the guys he's passing to.
I'm also ready for the new season. Everyone projects my Broncos to go 4-12 this season and last in their division but I'm eager to see who's going to be behind center, how our new players work out from the draft and if Fox is going to put together a good team this season or flub it up like McDaniels. - : Re: The Statistics of Diplomacy
I have a lot of stats and you can get them from me or anyone else that has them. I will continue to add more to them as I get time. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Same thing happens to me. No problems - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Well, I suppose some commentary on the builds is in order, as there were a few builds that were surprising to see. However, it's prudent of me to continue commentary from strongest position in each sphere of influence to the weakest.
England at #1: With two fleets coming in at Lvp and Lon, even Ray Charles could have said that they're destined for French waters. He's in a good position to gain traction against F and even more so if he can make landfall someplace. The huge drawback to his plan, and I mean huge, is the Danish army. Sure it gave him a second build but it's way out of position. In order to move it, he must neglect the center altogether giving more power in the hands of Germany than what he needs to be giving him especially in light of the builds. The army in Denmark can only affect Germany and only if France is on board for the fight. I will give a split prediction for the coming year. If he can find an ally in Germany and swing things in his favor, I see a build at Brest in the works. If not, then I see England at -1 unit with the loss of Denmark, possibly at -2 if he loses Scandinavia as well.
Germany at #2: Yes, Germany suddenly vaulted to the #2 spot and is bordering on the top spot in the west. He has the pick of the litter in terms of alliances and both favor him more than his ally. Currently poised for a F/G, the tide could turn on a surprising twist to become a E/G. His builds were sound and maintain versatility. For the coming year, if he maintains working with the French I expect to see a build from Denmark but if he switches, I don't foresee any builds this year but poised to take Paris or Marseilles next year and the other in the following one.
France at #3: Clearly he's headed to English waters but I think it's a slow idea to build two fleets because it's a full year or more out of the action having to go around the peninsula. Second, France is banking his chips on a 'play nice' Germany but if he blitzes France's eastern border, the fleets will be powerless to stop him from forcing their way into Burgundy which is no place that France wants an army. While it's true that France *can* hold off England and Germany even with an enemy piece in Burgundy, it's only by having an extra army in there someplace to do the job.
Even if you are banking on a German ally, it's still a better idea to get the fleet/army combo because 1) France will need armies on the English Island in order to gain footing but still maintain a land force to defend himself 2) it's much easier to use a diplomatic approach with England if things go awry and 3) all those fleets are going to simply get bunched up with all the English fleets in the water. Next year I see no builds and possibly a loss of Brest if things go badly.
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For the east
Italy at #1: He is in the strongest position and by no small matter. Although he could lose Trieste, he could very reasonably negotiate his way to keeping it in turn for an Austrian alliance. If things go well, he could see yet another build but the worst-case scenario would be that he simply maintains. He might lose Trieste but gain Greece or even keep Trieste for another year and gain a Turkish center. Overall, however, I predict no builds but poised to gain next year.
Austria at #2: But this is a fragile #2. He's going to have to do some fast talking in order to simply maintain and he could slip to the #3 spot at the year's end unless things change. He won't slip to #4 because of his stronger position than Turkey going into the next season and I wouldn't be surprised to see him ignore the Italian presence to focus solely on Turkey or Russia this year in order to maintain his current standing. I predict either no builds but a stronger position for next year or the loss of a center and a weaker position.
Russia at #3: The army build in St Pete looks like it's poised to maintain. It's obviously not anti-English completely but could snag the remainder of Scandinavia in the brewing western war but is making strong points that it has no commanding stakes to be had in the north and his focus is on the south at the meantime. I expect to see Russia in a stronger position in the coming year no matter what he does with his units. He could help dismantle Austria for 1 build or even attack the Turk for the same results. If Austria decides to maintain his prior course, he could simply maintain the number of units he has on the map but have a weaker spot in the south but I don't think that's going to happen. I do expect to see 1-2 builds for Russia in the coming season unless he bungles it with poor diplomacy.
Turkey at #4: His position is a bit awkward. His control of the Black Sea is intended to strengthen himself against Russia but the fleet build was a stretch. I don't really see much use coming out of the unit because Italy will command the southern waters no-contest. Also, the fleet build means that his backside is totally undefended. If Russia strikes, he has to guess at what happens. If he works to maintain control of the Black Sea, Russia could slip in behind him with his armies but if he moves to bounce such a move and Russia simply moves his fleet into the BLA then his position is equally poor. Given all this, though, he could make ground with Austrian support yet again into Rumania if Austria will have it. It's difficult to predict anything for Turkey in the coming season but it depends solely on Austria. If A decides to ditch Turkey and instead ask Russia for Bulgaria then his position will drop, but if he can get Austria on his side, he could maintain or even see a build in the coming season.
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In closing, things to look for in the west is what happens with Germany and who will be the strongest voice in his ear. My original prediction was that Germany would be stale but he has startlingly turned that around. The second thing to look for is how much influence Russia wants to make in the north. This coming season will either be very dull or it will create fireworks.
In the east, things are getting tense. The diplomatic waters will go from simmering to boiling and a lot of centers could be changing hands and there are going to be some very interesting results any way you roll the dice. The questions to have are where does the Italian army at Tunis make landfall and who is Austria going to work with in the coming year because he definitely won't be out any allies and might even gain a pocket-ally along the way. - : Re: Civility REQUIRED game: players wanted
doh, that sux. I was looking forward to playing with you. So, who else is in this game? - : Re: Civility REQUIRED game: players wanted
With a 59% success rating. Very nice. - : Re: Civility REQUIRED game: players wanted
I'm in. Looking forward to playing with the new faces. In fact, aside from zultar in one other game, I think everyone else is new to me. Who all is officially in this game? - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 1
It puts the bumping on the thread or else it gets the hose again. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Back for a little more commentary to clear up a few things. In my haste to celebrate my 6th wedding anniversary, I didn't check the orders thoroughly. FYI to any green players, anytime you see a unit simply sitting on the map with no apparent orders, especially early in the game, it's probably a failed support order.
Thus, a few changes are in order. It does appear that we will see an E/F instead of an F/G which was much more what I anticipated before the start of the game. It would have been much better for England, however, to simply tell France up front that he would be taking Denmark so that France would have bounced Germany in Belgium rather than get support and not take it. I still like the idea of taking Denmark over Belgium because it can be relatively easy to hold so long as Russia doesn't step in and aid Germany, whereas Belgium can be lost if the E/F becomes an F/G. However, it will be a tad more difficult to gain ground on Germany without the shifting of some fleets on part of England. Germany can easily hold off French armies until the end of time and it will come down to England as to whether or not the alliance succeeds.
In the east, Austrian support of Turkey was clearly a dropped bombshell with the Turkish NMR. Strange that Austria would support the Turk and not the Russian given that Turkey is easily manageable so long as he doesn't get outside of Bulgaria and Russia's fleet in Rumania means that Austria doesn't have to worry about stabs coming his way anytime soon. I'm interested to see how things pan out in future seasons given that the A/T lost a little ground from the last fall.
In terms of Italy, I still favor changing things up to square off a 2v2 in the east simply because it can guarantee a long-term alliance from the person you rescue from harm without having to necessarily reciprocate in later years if you don't want to. As Italy, the country remains relatively "neutral" toward all countries and has the freedom to pick it's battle without fear of reprisal until one eastern power is eliminated, even in the face of a Juggernaut. In addition to this, it gives the Italian more time to communicate negotiate terms of a future alliance or simply till the diplomatic ground and see what turns up.
My build predictions will remain the same as well as my commentary for the other nations. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
It's generally a good idea to put in for some temporary orders in case something like this happens. You surely had to have known that you could have submitted holds and changed it if need be.
Apologies accepted and I hope you can get back on the horse again. It certainly makes things difficult but not impossible by any means. Good luck to you.
On a second note, it was pointed out that I somehow missed some failed supports along the way. Most of my commentary still stands in the east but the west could see some differences in terms of the possibility of an E/F instead of an F/G. I'll comment more later. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Well, some expected things occurred this season and some very unexpected ones. I'll report from the strongest positions to the weakest positions in each sphere of influence.
WEST
----------------------------
England: Two builds in 1901 and control of Denmark to boot. Anytime England can gain 2 builds in the first year, he immediately becomes the dominant power in the west even if everyone else gains the same number of builds. The strongest point of his control is having the army in Denmark instead of Norway. This gives him the power to pretty much pick and choose what to do in the coming season. I could easily see any type of alliance available for England. Although the army in Denmark spells more trouble for Germany than it does for France, it seems like Denmark was negotiated since Germany didn't even try for it. I anticipate a fleet build in London and either a fleet in Liverpool or army in Edinburgh.
France: The French are sitting on a fair position and clearly worked with Germany where Belgium is concerned. His choice of allies is more limited but could still go either way. I expect to see a fleet in Brest and army in Paris but a strong front against England might also mean a second fleet but that's putting a lot of trust in Germany.
Germany: Not the best opening year. Moving Munich to Ruhr in the fall doesn't do much unless you're planning on building a unit in Munich. He's clearly pushing for an alliance with the French given control of Belgium and not having moved to Burgundy. The fact that the English have control of Denmark could well spell bad news should the F/G become a E/F. I anticipate a fleet in Kiel and army in Munich.
EAST
----------------------------------------
Italy: In a *VERY* surprise move, the Italian slips out of standard Lepanto to gain control of Trieste. Even though he's put as the #1 position in the east, it's only a fragile lead. An army build in Venice would give him more ability to maintain control of his new-found Austrian center but the Budapest build will mean that he could simply force him out sometime next year. He's clearly plying for a Turkish ally but given that the Turk played extremely poorly last season with the NMR, he might be putting all his weight on a weak board. I expect to see a fleet in Naples and army in Venice, but it wouldn't be a complete shocker to see two armies.
Austria: Even though he gained only 1 build, I still put Austria as the #2 power because Russia doesn't have a strong position against any foreign power and we could see a strong Austria going into next year as well if he's able to regain lost ground and pull out strong. I don't foresee a bounce in Galicia to be in the cards anymore and I anticipate a necessary A/R. I doubt there's any type of AIR due to the fact that if there were, Italy would have been much better moving to the AEG and forgoing the second build at Tunis. Naturally, an army will show up in Budapest.
Russia: Not a terrible spot to be in #3 because so many positions stand on the edge of a knife and he could very well pull to the #2 spot by the coming year. His position is still really great considering that he's allied with Austria and I don't anticipate this to change. I enjoy a 2v2 in the east and a A/R v I/T would fill out nicely. He's going to start having to do something soon, however, and simply using Sevastopol to support hold his fleet in Rumania isn't going to do anything for him in the coming year. In the north is where he will face trouble and if anything keeps him in the #3 spot it will be developments in Scandinavia. Sweden could be easily compromised but not without a fight if he doesn't have a neutral England. I see strong communications with Germany occurring as well as a lot of press with E. Naturally an army in Moscow and depending on what he thinks will happen in the north, a fleet in StP nc if he's taking an active part in the north, or possibly another army for more security.
Turkey: An NMR? Really? Poor show. Just for the rest of the new players in the game, ****If you have the ability to get on an hour before the turn of a phase to see if someone will NMR, don't support holds along your border**** I predicted a struggling Turk in my pre-game comments and suggested that he would be the first to be eliminated and this will only solidify my opinion. Turkey may have an Italian ally, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if that crumbles because no one wants to ally with a guy who can't show for a season. Also, if you *didn't* NMR, then it was an idiot move to not support a hold at Bulgaria. I expect to see an army build given the likely I/T and a fleet build won't get him much.
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Closing comments: I originally predicted a weak Germany and Turkey in my opening comments and it still stands. Although I also called for the early elimination of Turkey followed by Germany, I could be wrong with the powers in the west. A F/G could turn the tide for G. I posted the predicted builds for the coming Winter and won't comment on things to look for in the Spring until the build phase shows. - : Re: SoW??
I still strongly disagree with Furball that reading the SoW posts is useless. Part of the goal of the thread is to illicit questions from the community at large. Professors post things they see in the coming seasons as well as commentary on what happened last season and why various moves were good or bad. Not everyone will agree with them but the truth is that the Prof's have a better grasp on the game and have a greater capability to read the board, predict the movements of the players and have greater insights into the game itself, hence their part in the SoW.
It's foolish to simply turn down any piece of information without first examining it and most people could learn something from the insights of the various TA's and Professors. After all, they make up a good cropping of the top players on this site. - : Re: Civility REQUIRED game: players wanted
Thanks. If you find yourself short a player, you might be able to talk me into joining one as long as the phases are 1 1/2 days or longer and it's WTA. - : Re: Civility REQUIRED game: players wanted
What do you mean by "civility" - : Re: SoW??
+1 Ivo. No offense steephie but I looked at your profile and the kettle's empty of wins and not exactly brimming with draws. I got where I am today by reading articles on the Pouch, reading Richard Sharpe, studying the games of others, analyzing my own flaws and thinking about why I do what I'm doing. There's an adage that says "you can't see the forest for the trees" and it's often true. I've studied thousands of games and dozens of articles on top of other things and it has changed my perspective on how I see and play the game. Winners are dynamic, not static. - : Re: SoW??
Additionally, those not playing in the game or assisting one of the players can follow along in the threads and view the maps and ask questions of the professors posting in the forum threads about anything they're curious about and receive a reply from them. - : Re: I'm not back, but...
Don't forget that we have begun to attempt annual live games based on the players from this site. The first has completed and the second has already begun negotiations and planning. I'm still a ninja, too. - : Re: It Seems We Got Off On the Wrong Foot.
Infinity isn't a number, it's a concept and therefore not prime. - : Re: gameID=63901
Just 1 more person needed and this game can get off the ground. Certainly someone I've played with before wants to rejoin the fun in this new WTA. Just 1 day left to cast your D points into the pot. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
The long-awaited first season has finally completed. There are some things I expected to see while others I certainly did not but as expected, things in the east are far more interesting than in the west. Let's start with the west, however.
Germany: Normally I don't care for the openings to Holland over Denmark in S01 but given that there's a bounce in Burgundy I actually think it was a somewhat good idea, and here's why: Although an opening to Holland means that there definitely won't be a Russian bounce in Sweden, it does mean that England won't necessarily gain Belgium and neither would the French, and in my opinion, a standard western first-year should comprise of 2 French builds, 2 German builds and 1 English build while Belgium remains undecided. Germany now has the option to move to Belgium and bounce with England or France or simply see what plays out. The only real drawback, and it's a big one, is that Denmark isn't a shoe-in, but then again, anytime there's a bounce in Burgundy, 2 builds for Germany isn't always in the cards.
France: A somewhat unexpected opening especially in light that I anticipated a Parisian move to Gascony. Given that there was a pre-ordained bounce in Burgundy, it was a safe maneuver to push Paris to Picardy instead because it still gives the opportunity to come away with 3 builds instead of 2 and leaves Belgium on the diplomatic table as well.
England: A safe opening and a promising one since Russia moved south with his units meaning that Norway is assuredly English and the North Sea fleet has a ton of opportunities available to it. It's quite possible that England will have chosen his enemy by the time F01 moves come out leaving someone very unhappy.
Now for the east:
Austria: A good first season. Greece will fall into his hands and Serbia is secure. He likely has an Italian ally and things are shaping up very positively for him and I expect that he will continue to flourish. The Russian fleet in Rumania and bounce in Galicia all spell positive things for Austria as well. The only thing that could conceivably cause problems is that darn Italian army still lounging around in Venice but given that there's still an army in Venice, it leaves a variety of possibility for how to use it next season.
Italy: Lepanto opening. I for one, am more of a fan than most players because it can give you options. Opening north in S01 puts all your eggs in one basket in attacking Austria unless you're planning on going over the top in the presence of a Juggernaut. As a general rule, I hold the opinion that if you don't know what's going on between R/T, it's best to Lepanto because you can always take Trieste and ply for Greece in the fall, or if all else fails, take Tunis.
Turkey: Very vanilla opening but gaining the Black Sea this early was monumental. Clearly there was a renege on an agreement and Turkey could have even opened to Armenia to seal an anti-Russian opening. There may have been a lack of communication between the two as well, but this is less likely. Turkey will have some problems to face in the coming seasons between the Lepanto opening, a 2 center Aussie and a potentially unhappy Russian. He will certainly have a lot to do in order to secure his future.
Russia: At least he submitted moves...To begin with, I think it's a foolish thing to abandon the Black Sea *and* bounce in Galicia and combine that with Moscow moving to Sevastopol. This could have been a recipe for disaster. If Austria had moved to Rumania, then not only would Turkey have gained the Black Sea but Russia's units would have been more backed up than a guy trying to crap bricks. The only thing that would have been more useless was to move Sevastopol to the Black Sea and Moscow to Sevastopol--a move that I've seen in far too many games. He's clearly banking on an Austrian ally going forward. All is not lost, however, but next season will certainly be interesting.
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As a final few words: things to look for in the west are what England does with the North Sea fleet because he's not very likely to simply use it to support a convoy and what happens with Belgium. F02 will answer these questions for the SoW audience but there's no lack of things to discuss among the 3 western powers.
Things to look for in the west: what's going to happen with Russia and Turkey. Austria and Italy are pretty-well settled but there could be an A/T or an A/R going on and neither R nor T wants to be the odd-man out. Both Russia and Turkey will have their message boxes filled to brimming in the coming season and there's about a million different things that could happen in theory.
I invite those from the onlooking community to pose questions they might have on my commentary or what I think on a different topic. - : Re: New July GR Challenge Topic
If there are spots left, I'd be interested in joining one. I'm barely in 1 game right now. Any buy-in, anon or non-anon is cool. I just would like to see at least a day and a half phase length,though. - : Re: If everyone CDs
I doubt they're the same person but I'm sure they know each other. Also, Alderian is correct, the last person to CD is considered the winner based on time even if they all CD on the same season. - : Re: Do Girls Play WebDiplomacy?
Hey everyone, give him a break. King Atom is a bit frustrated. He hasn't seen himself naked in several days and he only has 59 but calls himself a "king". Also, he stalks women and can't clearly do that right (by his own admission). If you guys continue picking on him, he might start stalking boys and shaving his pets to see them naked. - : Re: gameID=63901
Needs just 3 more people! - : Re: Stats Enhancement
I might be a nerdy psychopath...I can tell you one thing, at any point in the day, you could ask me to list the map layout and I could tell you the location of every unit controlled by every country (given that I'm playing in 3 games or less, after that it gets a little confusing and I only know the location of my units as well as those countries that can directly affect me). As long as I know that information, I can think about the game while I'm at work, while I'm going to bed, in the shower or any other time I don't have anything else occupying my time. I also think about the press I'm going to send to the other countries when the new phase starts. My wife says I'm obsessed but I think that I'm just dedicated. - : Re: Question for Atheist Liberals and Christian Conservatives
It has to do with whether the ideas presented are those that have been held for a long time (centuries) or short time. Abortion, for example, is considered a conservative (right wing) value because it has long been that killing (non war) is against the legal and moral code of a majority of the nations. - : Re: gameID=63901
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=63901
Guess I'll post a clickable link here - : Re: Stats Enhancement
Lol zultar. You're a nerd like the rest of us and you know it. Ya gotta be to some extent to even play this game, or so my wife tells me. - : Re: Stats Enhancement
That's cool, eventually, after I've compiled a large quantity of statistics taken from this site, I'll create my own site dedicated to those stats available for others to see. There's still a lot I want to do with the stats still.
I've thought about posting my stats on my profile but I haven't simply because I feel like it might impact the way people play against me. I have a really strong record with some countries and don't want that to change :O - : Re: Stats Enhancement
I keep a xl file of all my stats. All I have to do is change a few numbers and it alters the rest of the info throughout the sheet. It's pretty handy and I simply update it after each game I complete. - : Re: The question
ninja's simply kill you with the box, so your point is moot. - : Re: The question
It's like that but the "roomies" also eat all your cereal and you only get $150 in food stamps per month as it is. Pisses me off, it does. - : Re: computer broken
ya, I thought so too with the first one we bought but they break along the connection piece between the computer and the actual cord so I couldn't splice it. We've had 4 break to date at $60-$100 bucks a pop. On top of that, our dog ate one and my wife rocked over one numerous times in the rocker-recliner. I'm ready for a desktop. - : Re: computer broken
@ zultar - the break was the battery charger, so we bought a new one
@ furball - i hope you break :) - : Re: computer broken
fixed - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
shove - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
scoot - : Re: The WebDip Map of Fame
pretty cool - : Re: Paging...
Lemme know when the *real* game is up :) - : Re: Wow - cool Dip tournament in Indianapolis... Aug 4-7
Yes, I'm sure Jacob is going to come back to webdip. He's felt like he needed to make some family commitments and he's doing a year with no internet or TV (minimum). He's also working full-time as a car salesman (go figure).
+1 Indy, I really like downtown Indy. It's not dirty like Chicago or Nashville, it's not cluttered with homeless people or vagabonds and there's tons to do. The convention center alone is connected to a hotel and major mall and there's a million tasty restaurants within walking distance of the convention center as well. Ample parking and free if you don't mind a reasonable walk.
Also, if you're bored, they have the Settlers of Catan tournament there as well. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I suppose I'll open up the game with a few pregame comments before I head off to work.
I expect the early stages of this game to be relatively simple. In the west we will see some fairly common openings for the game and I expect that one country will clearly dominate by midgame. In the east, however, I think we will see some strange events taking place early on, quite possibly even from the outset as some players tend to be less predictable in their early movements. By 1904 we might be seeing an eastern power already gone from the game or with one lone unit on the map and one other player will be finding it difficult to really gain a foothold someplace.
In the end, I think only two countries will really have a chance to solo but I predict that it will be either a three-way draw between one western power (England, France, Germany) along with two eastern powers (Italy, Austria, Russia, Turkey), or quite possibly a four-way comprised of two countries from each sphere.
Stabs will occur very early on by two countries in particular as they switch up alliances in order to be the dominant force among their neighbors. I anticipate that this game will have a lot more that we can comment on as the years go by, especially compared to most other games assuming that the students are truly following the directives of their TA's. It's also conceivable that one western power might NMR in at least one phase of the game but the eastern powers will remain throughout.
I'll pass on my predictions to Ivo in the form of a PM just to see how accurate I am by the endgame. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
I've never been able to see global chat unless I click on the Messages archive, and I've been studying the archives for years, so I don't think its anything that's changed. - : Re: Paging...
Sorry smiles. I don't do gunboat games. I really suck at them because the diplomatic aspect is very much my strong point. If you start a regular game, I'd be happy to join once a few of my games clear up. I did see the PM, btw, but I've been busy with the SoW preparations that I haven't gotten to getting back to you. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
Ivo, I'm the other Prof with you. I think the pause is going to last until the start of next week (maybe?) - : Re: Wow - cool Dip tournament in Indianapolis... Aug 4-7
Jacob will be at Gen Con and he told me that he plans on playing a game of Diplomacy out there. I can let him know that you guys will be out there for it if you're going. I can even pass on a phone number or something else if you'd like.
I won't be there this year but in future years I will be. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011
nudge. - : Re: Stabbing not nice?
My thoughts are:
yes, stabbing is an integral part of the game and one of my goals is to get a hot-head to cuss me out after a stab. It means that the stab was truly effective. I hate to ruin a game for someone but if they go to the length of cussing me out for it, then they seriously need to re-evaluate what this game means to them. No offense to those that are angered by a hearty stab. - : Re: Leaving webdiplomacy
I'm sure you're leaving because I finally passed you in your own rating system :)
jk. I know how it is trying to take on college level courses and juggle diplomacy at the same time. Try doing it with kids. I'm sure you'll be back and in the mean time you'll post your updates to the GR. See ya whenever, cuz I know I'll be here when you return. - : Re: webDip Representative for Diplomacy Cast
Yes but you forgot Ghost (2). It should be:
Ghost (2)
Babak (4)
PE (1)
MM (2) - : Re: New Ghost-Ratings up
Hmm, I didn't think my GR would go up since I didn't complete games last month. Guess it went up 11 spots :O
#52. Wonder when I'll peak. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011
geez, what a putz. :) - : Re: SoW Summer 2011
As per goldfinger's request, here are the TA assignments for GAME 2. Any TA in both Game 1 and Game 2 should have a different country for each game (double check this, of course).
The Game 2 TA's will be as follows:
Austria: Abgemacht
England: jmo1121109
France: Triumvir
Germany: Goldfinger0303
Italy: Smiley
Russia: Bonotow
Turkey: Pete U
As soon as the game starts, it's up to the TA to notify their player to let them know that they will be TA'ing with them and to guide the conversations. Players are also encouraged to find their TA and send a PM to them to get things started as well. If the TA's have not contacted their players within the first 24 hours of the game, notify goldfinger0303 at that time (please give a full day). This will give him time to try to contact an alternate and give the alternate a heads up of a day or two in case one should drop out.
I also recommend that TA's have some opening remarks for the country. Some of the students may have only rudimentary knowledge of the country or maybe even just the mechanics of how to move pieces and not know the strengths and weaknesses of each country. That's a good place to begin and it assumes nothing. I have my Italian opening already set up and ready to go. It includes an introduction about my successes when playing Italy, some of the strengths and weaknesses of the country, what the player needs to do by the end of the first full year, things to talk about with the other countries on the map, opening moves available to them (the reasonable ones) and also includes sample conversations I've had in S01 when playing Italy to give them some guidance about how to open up to the other countries on the map. This gives the player the ability to read through what you have, process it and come up with some ideas about how to start. It also gives more control to the player and not merely you telling them what to do and say. The suggestions are pretty broad so that they can be applied to games where they play Italy and not just this SoW.
Hope that helps. Also, at the game's end, I'll post my Italian comments in a new thread and I invite the other TA's to do the same thing whether they won, drew, survived or were eliminated. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011
Sure thing MM. I was already planning on recording my comments about England and I'll do the same thing for Italy as well and compile them into a single file that I can give you at the end. I would love it if all the TA's did this and then passed around their notes. I think it would really highlight common flaws, oversights or great insights and new perspectives on looking at the game.
+1/2 Babak: I agree that PPSC isn't true Diplomacy but it does help players who are trying to bump up their D points to be able to comfortably play in higher pot WTA's. It's sort of like a stepping-stone. I still don't think that players should simply "settle" for less, however, even playing in PPSC games. I always play games like that as WTA's because they still count toward your stats and GR. A survival or elim in a game sucks either way. - : Re: DiplomacyCast tech issues FINALLY resolved, Ep6 is available!
Thanks a bunch guys! - : Re: Question regarding to winning
The only problem with the 0 SC survivals is when the game ends in a draw. Far too often, people who don't know about this game flaw draw the game prematurely with a guy with 0 SC's.
Retreats should be part of the last supposed phase, and this problem should be corrected, but I have the feeling that his causes problems with the code the way it's written. I'm sure it could be corrected by changing the location of a function call. - : Re: Smiley Invitational
Geez, go figure. Every time I get a 500 error and I refresh, I double post. I didn't refresh and instead went to the homepage and it chose not to send my message.
Thanks for the shout out PE. I'd be happy to join once I can finish a few games. I'm scheduled to TA for game 1 of the SoW and prof for game 2 (as you know) and I'm playing 4 games right now on this site and one on playdip (test run for the site).
If Smiles will have me and things settle down before the game begins, then I'm definitely up for it. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011
Looks like I'm the only other person that put in for Italy. If you want to take England, I can take Italy. - : Re: SoW Summer 2011
@MM: I believe that TA's are currently needed in Game 1 (Draug apparently is leaving) and Game 2 needs a few. Game 1 is scheduled to start soon (within the next few days) and is 2 day phases while game 2 has yet to fill up.
If you are interested in TAing in Game 1, I'm sure we can shuffle someone to Italy and you to a country of your choosing with no problems. - : Re: Stupid parking enforcement.
@ Leif: I hate parking attendants. At any time you're splitting hairs about an inch or two is pretty much ridiculous and simply doing it to be a douche. Here in Bowling Green, they only ticket people for gross infractions. Consequently, however, I've had 4 tickets while on campus. One more and I get booted :( I've stopped parking on the yellow even by a fraction of an inch just to get a good spot.
The need for distance from the curb is to prevent people from parking in the actual lane in areas where traffic lanes aren't as wide as others. This allows emergency vehicles the space to pass as well. I can honestly say that I've almost never parked within 12 inches of the curb. - : Re: SoW game
I think we can get another classic game going pretty easy and sign some more TA's up but not in this thread. After 222 replies (223 with this one) then people aren't going to open it up and try to follow what's going on. If a new thread is started for game 2 of the Summer 2011 SoW then I'm sure we can gain a few more people. I can get some people I know to be students and they can use the help. I'll PM them to let them know.
@goldfinger: If you wanna start a new SoW thread to advertise game 2 then that will help get the word out. - : Re: I’ve been thinking quite a bit lately about something we can all relate to.
I'm far more of a football fan as well. I don't hate baseball but I think there's a lot more in the way of tactics in football (American football) than what's found in baseball. I think that the game has begun to falter in some areas, however. I'm not a fan of simply firing your coach because he had a terrible season, or even firing him partway through the season. I also think that the player trading/releasing and bouncing around has gotten a bit out of hand, especially in terms of some players. Brandon Marshall is one example of a player whining like a baby, throwing games in order to get traded and just the overall selfish mentality that some jerk-headed players seem to maintain. - : Re: What's in a defintion
Since this thread is pretty much only about hijacking this thread and not about actually talking about the pointless topic that originally started it, I'd like to ask if anyone has ever read the Order of the Stick web comics?
OOTS is a D&D themed web comic that's been quasi-popular for several years now. It's found at giantitp.com for all you D&D fans out there that have never heard of it. Unfortunately there's been a long lull in activity on the site lately. Not sure why. - : Re: SoW game
What's Game 1 waiting on? We have the players and other participants to start it. It seems that all we need is for a student to create the game and PM the password to the other players. I listed the specs earlier and the recommended steps to start it up. The only student that has been active for the last 3 pages in this thread is Riphen. If we continue to delay then I think we'll find that we have to fill more student spots in Game 1 when some of them begin to fail to respond to the thread and PM's.
Secondly, I'll prof in game 2 to fill the spot. I think it would be interesting. - : Re: How do I play this game?
A ninja could've stopped em. - : Re: SoW game
I agree with rdrivera that 3 professors makes a good lot. You get a nice mix of opinions and there's always room for debate each season. Also, I hadn't thought about the fact that the general public can post questions in order to solicit a response from the professors. - : Re: SoW game
I originally thought that same thing, but most of the people that comment are going to be those that are burning with an opinion and have to get it out. You might get a professional opinion now and again, but for the most part the comments would come from the slightly-above-average. It certainly would keep the official thread clean which is why I suggested it. Doesn't have to happen, though. - : Re: SoW game
If I have a game or so end before SoW game 2 starts, I'll co-prof with Ivo. Otherwise count me out. I couldn't TA in two SoW games at the same time. - : Re: SoW game
I'm ready for this to start as well. I think you covered everything pretty good goldfinger. I also think it would be neat to post a peanut-gallery SoW thread to allow anyone not playing or TAing in the game to post comments because I know that people love to do that and it would help keep the official thread clean. - : Re: SoW game
I enjoy playing Austria. It's a fun little challenge. You have to be at the top of your diplomatic game to play it. I work hard to try to make someone an offer that really benefits them. Often it involves either giving Turkey a leg up on Russia, Russia a leg up on Turkey or Italy a space for future expansion. It helps to also contact Germany and try to get him to help you make a deal with Russia's neutrality or even holding an allied position. - : Re: SoW game
@ ninjaintervention/leif: if you two wanna switch then thats cool. As long as ninja has the points. - : Re: SoW game
I suppose a final recap is as follows:
Students
----------------------------------
Leif_Syverson
Riphen
Rhinoceros
fabiobaq
EmperorMaximus
quebeclove
ThisTakesGumption
Back up Students
----------------------------------------
NinjaIntervention
TA's
---------------------------------------
Austria: goldfinger
England: Tru Ninja
France: uclabb
Germany: Triumvir
Italy: Draugnar
Russia: Abgemacht
Turkey: bonotow
Backup TA's
-----------------------------------------
Pete U - F/T/I
Cachimbo G/T/R/A
scmoo472 - R/I/E
Professors
---------------------------------------
Ivo Ivanov
Rdrivera
basvanopheneusden
At this point the following steps should occur:
1) A student needs to create the game with the following info:
36-48 hour phases (I prefer 48 since I'm a TA)
WTA
non-anon
small point buyin (less than 60, I recommend 50)
password protected
Title: SoW Summer 2011
Give the game 7 days to allow people to sign up. If the students listed above don't join by late Friday or early Saturday then an alternate will be used.
2) Create a forum thread with the same title and post the link to the game in the original post of the title so that professors and TA's don't have to scroll back to the beginning of the thread to find the game.
3) PM each of the students listed the password to the game (not the alternate students).
After all 7 people have joined and the game begins, only the professors are permitted to post within the game thread but the thread is free for anyone to read.
4) Students and/or TA's should contact their paired partner for the game just to make sure that they both know their roles and who each is assigned to.
Remember that this is a high profile game even though it's a low pot. Many people are putting a lot of their time into it and as such any NMR's or CD's will be looked on highly unfavorably and have negative repercussions in future sessions of the SoW for that player/TA. If you know that you're going to be away, please take the following actions:
students: please ask for a pause until such a time as you can appropriately return to the game. If it's longer than a week, please find a fill-in from the list of alternate students.
TA's: notify your student and find a temporary fill-in from among the alternate TA's because the game isn't going to pause from a missing TA. - : Re: How do I play this game?
You can donate your xbox and games to me and I'll send you Axis and Allies which contains bombers. - : Re: Trolling question
I think you should have informed everyone that you're talking about the movie Finding Nemo first.
No I'm sure it couldn't happen (although I don't know the amount of force that a steel boom can withstand). I'm sure that the net forces fish to not be able to swim the same direction since the net eventually takes on an elliptical shape (roughly) which is an intensely strong shape.
Cars 2 was pretty good. I took my son to it for his 5th birthday and he really liked it. It was tough for him to follow since it jumps back and forth between a spy-game involving Mater the race going on with McQueen. - : Re: World Wide Web (of Diplomacy)
If I want a pretty reliable game, I do the same thing or make the pot slightly higher. What you'll typically find is that people who are new to the game tend to play other newbies while the pros tend to play the pros. The only time I play in a noob game is if I am introducing a friend to the game for the first time.
Additionally, the League games and various tournaments tend to fend off CD's and NMR's pretty reliably as do playing with others you have played with in the past.
Lastly, this site keeps track of things like CD percentage but also number of games completed. It's rare that you find someone who's played 30 to 40 games to suddenly go into CD or NMR for that matter.
Here at this site, there tends to be an "unofficial" club of sorts among those that recognize each other. I recognize and have played with many people that have over 100 and many others can recognize these familiar faces from the forum itself. People that are on the site pretty regularly show up in a ton of threads and this is a very active forum.
FYI, listening to hellalt is sort of like sleeping on a pile of hammers. - : Re: Where to invest and in what?
My bank account is a good place to start. You might lose out initially but if the market is volatile, you'll have comfort in knowing that your money isn't going to waste. - : Re: Terminology help
ah the php days. I remember them like they were years ago... - : Re: SoW game
BTW: bas, I'd be happy putting you in as a 3rd professor as well if you didn't make TA. I think it's appropriate. - : Re: SoW game
I prefer Russia, England or Italy assuming I'm a TA and not a professor. This would put the TA list as follows:
Abgemacht: not G
Draug: F/I/T
goldfinger: A/E/G
bonotow: (I checked his profile and he'd be best at E/R/T)
Triumvir: F/G/R
Tru Ninja: E/I/R
Uclabb: E/F/G
A reasonable setup would be: Austria: goldfinger....England: uclabb....France: Tru Ninja...Germany: Triumvir....Italy: Draugnar....Russia: Abgemacht....Turkey: bonotow
This setup lists the TA's with the highest GR available with alternates capable of covering for any country.
-------------------------------------------
Backup TA's (in case a TA goes into limbo)
basvanopheneusden: A/R/I
Pete U (F/I/T)
Cachimbo
We could set Ivo and Rdrivera as Professors (commenters in the forum thread that comment on the previous moves made by the students in the game).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just to list some appropriate rules, I would urge any professors to seer clear of giving any comments that might sway future seasonal moves, like "x is in a tough spot going into the next season. He needs to be talking to Y and forming an alliance if he's going to pull out" or "Y should really ally with X in the next season so that he can accomplish his goal".
If the comments are based only on the things that have already occurred, it gives the students the ability to learn from both the TA and the professor in the forum for future games and doesn't influence the events in the current game.
Alternatively, TA's should find a means of giving the student the control over what to do with the TA giving advice on various ways to proceed. Get the student to come up with their own goals based on your suggestions. This might include things like "at this point in the game, you need to begin thinking about how to seal up the stalemate line to prevent a loss at the hands of X." If a student asks for advice on movement, help him to double-check his moves to ensure that the enemy can't retreat into his backfield. Using questions to answer questions promotes thought and allows the student to transfer learning to future games whereas a straight out answer only applies to this particular game.
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Lastly, it sounds like the general consensus is that the game should start next week and be 36 to 48 hours non-anonymous (I don't think anon is going to make a difference) and I think it should be WTA to help with GR a little more. - : Re: SoW game
I think the assigning of TA's should be based on country, not person. Each TA should be assigned to the country that they play best/well. Therefore, the TA would be assigned to a specific country and to whichever player takes that country at the game start. I'd hate to be playing Austria and get a TA that has mostly defeats and draws as that country. - : Re: How to rescue childhood friend from cult?
I've had a number of friends in cults or in drug-related situations over the years. I can honestly say that it's a difficult situation, especially if the child lives in the home with his/her parents who are members of the same cult.
I feel the best way to approach the situation is to begin by praying consistently and when you talk to the person involved, first understand the situation they're in. Many times, the cult is all they know and all they have grown up in. When talking to them, it seems to me that simply questioning what they believe and why they believe it is the best approach. If you find error in what they believe, then introduce Scripture. After all, the Christian cults use the same (mostly) Bible that we use but add or take away things. The JW run all things through the Watchtower Society while the Mormons have additional books that they add to the Bible.
Tackle questions like:
Who is Jesus? Who did he proclaim to be? Do you have verses that show this? What about these other verses, what does your church tell you about them? For example, the cults remove the Deity of Christ and often make him out to be Michael the Archangel or something of that nature and they change what Scripture says. The Mormons change the way a lot of the Bible has to say about Christ, but so much of the Bible points to the Deity that they miss many verses such as Matthew 3:3 and Isaiah 40:3 which state plainly about the Deity and do so even in their copy of Scripture.
For the JW, some common means to quesiton them is about the end times and if they're going to heaven, etc. - : Re: SoW game
I'm not interested in playing in the game itself. I'll comment via the forum thread or assist a player in the game but I firmly believe that the game should consist of 7 newbies each with an assistant and the professors should simply comment on the game's recently completed season as the game progresses.
We have the players and just need a few more TA's. - : Re: SoW game
when i "advise" i go into teacher mode and ask a lot of questions and allow students to decide their own course of action based on what they learn as time goes on. I find its of little use to tell someone what to do or say since they fail to connect the learning to the general situation. What happens in the instances where someone is given an answer instaed of being allowed to make discoveries is that what i tell them only applies in one situation and learning becomes static and not dynamic. - : Re: SoW game
I think that the general consensus is that anyone worse than a 250 GR is a viable student. - : Re: SoW game
I'd be happy to be an advisor or commenter, and there's some people that I'd recommend for the SoW game. I'll send messages to them and if they're interested, then I would be happy to have them message you. - : Re: SoW game
I like the idea of the SoW but the huge flaws in it is that there's regularly one or two people who are definitely not novice entering the game and they simply own the board or that the "professors" don't really give tips and methods of how to play, but rather they tell someone how to move and why--which is not really teaching someone how to get better. - : Re: Rank by total points
@ fortknox: lol, under Draug. I guess that means that you're under me for the first time that I can recall as well. About time too, I've been trying to pass you quietly for a while now. I'm actually surprised to see you're outside the top 100. - : Re: HELP! Creating a game after playing in person....
Yup. In a nutshell. It should only take a few in-game years to get your pieces to where they need to be if everyone agrees on it. - : Re: Player Needed
WAIT WAIT! It's got to be me! I'll pay money....er...nevermind. I got caught up in the situation. Sorry.
I recently played a game with my bro and his friends. We were able to add a few more players to the site. - : Re: Back after hiatus...
Also, there are plenty of new variant maps available as well as anonymous play. There are all kinds of tournaments running throughout the year which can seen at TheGhostMaker's website at phpdiplomacy.tournaments.googlepages.com. Last, there's been a lot of discussion on face-to-face play throughout the US based on players who play on this site. One FtF game has already completed and planning is in the works for the next.
I agree with Babak on the "biggest change". The community here has really developed over the years since I joined this site and it has developed into something that many of us are proud.
Lastly, there's a podcast on Diplomacy at diplomacycast.com if you haven't heard of it yet. It's by Nathan Barnes and Eric Mead. - : Re: webDip F2F 2012
same here, lots of the errors - : Re: webDip F2F 2012
As I stated in the other thread floating around here, I like Indy, although I wouldn't complain about St Louis. It's not too terribly far. I wouldn't be down for DC, though.
Here's another idea. If we could set up several tourneys across the US, we could combine scoring from each event and have a grand tournament held later in the year at a location central to the winners. We could host 7 tournaments at various locations (NW, SW, NC, C, SC, NE, SE) with each venue to be held on the same weekend to prevent the same player from playing at more than one venue. The same system for scoring would be used and the winner(s) of each venue plays at a final event. Each event might pass on the top three scorers with a runner-up who would act as a judge or stand-in.
We could find 7 people to host the events in their home towns or the nearest major city. - : Re: webDip F2F Boston LIVE FEED
@ Draug: I live in Bowling Green (south-central KY). My brother-in-law is here also and Jacob is in Lexington. Indy would be a great place to host since we have family up there for the wife and kids.
I agree with Draug that Chicago is really busy, even more so than Indy, and difficult to travel in. - : Re: webDip F2F 2012
I must say, this is probably too premature (much like birthing an embryo) but I suppose someplace central/west, west US. The best places are areas like Indy, Columbus, etc. I think that once you move it outside the US, then you'll lose a lot of the US players and moving it outside the UK loses most of those players. As for dates, I think the best times are June-August - : Re: webDip F2F Boston LIVE FEED
I must say, seeing the pics, it was strange but pleasant to see a much younger crowd than what I anticipated. I had assumed that those that were going to show up would be retirees or college-aged. Wish I coulda been there. I'd love to eventually set one up for the Kentucky area but if there's another one next year in the Boston area around the same time, I'll be sure to put the time into my schedule. - : Re: Can we program a variant where a single player can play all seven powers?
I use Realpolitik too - : Re: New Ghost-Ratings up
Finally, I've re-entered! Up two spots to boot from 65 to 63. - : Re: Baby Update
I'm a Christian, Poltergeist and I'll be praying for your family and granddaughter. - : Re: FtF game statistics
That's why I think it's much easier to take pics of the board with a digital camera. Also, the games don't have to be from a tournament, they can be ones played around a dining room table between a bunch of friends one Saturday afternoon. I don't anticipate this to be a quick endeavor. - : Re: FtF game statistics
Sounds promising, I'll check them out. Thanks Edi. - : Re: FtF game statistics
I'm in Kentucky, so it's not "out of the question" in terms of distance but I made a promise to the wife not to go to Gen Con or other tournaments until my son is old enough to begin to go with me...passing down a legacy and all. The tournament sounds very appealing, though and within a few years, I might host one here in southern KY. - : Re: FtF game statistics
If anyone is going to play face-to-face games soon or is heading to tournaments and is willing to help me, this is how you can do so:
I need a pic of the first two seasons (S01 & F01) as well as the end of the game. For those taking notes, I need to know how each country moved in the first two seasons and who owned what locations at the end of the game (eliminations, survivals, draws, # centers etc) and what units each country had on the board at the game's end (which is why pics are wonderful but notes are acceptable). If people have questions or wish to submit photos, they can send them to my email at joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu. - : Re: TheGhostmaker is in critical condition.
medically, have you thought about offering him the survival if he gives up centers along his back side? - : Re: Which CD is worse: Start, Mid or End Game?
Depends. If the CD occurs in the beginning, someone taking over the CD is in a far worse spot than a CD mid game or end game but for the rest of the board, a CD in the mid game is worse since it heavily throws the game in one country's favor depending on the location of the CD and the number of centers available. CDs at the end of the game are typically one or two center countries giving up, and aren't usually detrimental unless they would be employed along a stalemate line forcing a draw. - : Re: Questions for the Christians
To answer the question fully, you have to first place yourselves in the position of the Jews of the time of Jesus. The Pharisees (teachers of the Law for the time) held very strict religious traditions based primarily off of what we know as the Old Testament as well as man-made traditions that strictly defined in very lawyer-like fashion what a person can do and when they can do it as well as how to go about doing it. These legal traditions were the widely held beliefs of the time when Christ was born to such a degree that when Christ came preaching and teaching the Law in a way that they had not been used to hearing it, many were amazed. In addition, throughout Scripture, the people stated that he "taught as one with authority". The primary belief concerning the Messiah of the time was that He would come, ransom Israel from captive Rome and establish a new throne in the line of David and many men attempted to do this along the way. When Jesus came teaching the "radical" teachings and doing things in His own authority, it's bound to tick off the religious elite. When he did not oust Herod or Caesar from the throne and instead died, this gave the impression that he was not the Messiah-to-be but their error was the belief that His kingdom would be an earthly kingdom instead of a heavenly one.
True that all of Jesus' followers deserted Him at the time of His crucifixion, 11 were redeemed after his resurrection from the dead and they were eye-witnesses to this. They saw him die, and John wrote that blood mixed with water came out of His body when he was pierced by the spear indicating that he was indeed dead. After seeing Him resurrected, they were taught many things by Him for 40 days following and then saw Him taken up to Heaven.
Now for the disciples to teach the resurrection of Christ meant that they were either liars or men of truth. Also know that by teaching the resurrection, they would be putting their lives on the line to be ostracized from the community at large, imprisoned and killed for their message because Christ, according to many of the Jews, was a blasphemer who claimed to be God and anyone siding with him should be killed. No man would stand by a lie to the point of death. They were commissioned by their Lord and Savior even to the point of death to preach the resurrection and the remission of sin if others would put their lives on the line and believe and trust in Christ.
There's a great book by Lee Strobel called "The Case for Christ" who touches very indepth on these issues.
@Putin33 - Jesus clearly stated that the most grave of sins was to blaspheme the Holy Spirit, or in essence, reject Christ as Savior. He said that a man can be forgiven of anything except this. - : Re: How many games are you currently in?
I'm in 5 on this site and 1 on playdiplomacy.com - : Re: Discuss the game "Guuuuunboat" gameID=60001
I'll post a friendly comment. Mostly I have a series of questions I'm curious about. The biggest flaw I saw in a lot of people is not utilizing all of their units. In a number of cases, simply using a unit to support another unit (holding or moving) would've paid dividends.
Austria: You pulled out of the gate really strong, but in 1902 you didn't do anything with Budapest and lost control of Greece. From there, it was all downhill. What happened?
England: I was impressed to see 2 builds in 1901. You were bringing it to Russia pretty quickly but I think you could have benefited with a two fleet build in the first year instead of a fleet and an army. That would have given you Brest after a clear retreat. You did pretty good taking Belgium back but should've used Norway to support your new fleet into the North Sea.
France: You had really great timing on pretty much everything. The biggest screw was the NMR. I loved the way you tagged Italy and England almost at the same time and initiated the combats really well.
Germany: You started out very strong and in 1905 I would have easily put you as a strong contender for the win but 1904/5 changed some of that. I think you had a premature attack on Russia given that France was growing strong and had plenty of room to expand. Part of your loss I chalk up to simply bad luck after England kept on pursuing you even with France building a fleet at Brest and moving onto the Island. Tough break.
Italy: Nice opening against Austria. Given it was a Gunboat, I think it was your best option. I'm curious to know why a fleet build in Marseilles by France didn't signal alarms?
Russia: Out of all the players on the map, you had the hardest time. You had too many people wanting your land. I can't really say much here because you didn't have much going your way after the first season. After losing Rumania to Austria and losing the Black Sea to Turkey (although this was somewhat avoidable), you didn't have much opportunity to get back into the game. I'm fairly certain that if this wasn't a Gunboat, you could've turned things around.
Turkey: At some points you were fortunate but nicely played overall. Your biggest success came pretty early in seizing both the Black Sea and Greece in the same season. - : Re: Old men (or women) required
30's here too, but the kids make me feel like I'm in my 60s - : Re: Diplomacy
Is it just me or is Draug in the center of almost every argument on this site (it used to be hellalt) - : Re: Diplomacy
If there's a spot available, I might be willing to play if its a 2 day phase game or longer. Also, FYI, you can't get down to 0. The game will give you your 100 back. - : Re: Replacement
Ya, it's a brave soul that will take that game... - : Re: Advice?
I simply think your mistakes were not reading the board and knowing what others would do. Once France go into English waters, he would not be able to focus on you. Second, your attention should have been almost solely south. Also, I would have considered taking Rumania with your Sevastopol fleet. Losing the Black Sea would've been a small sacrifice and you could've put a fleet in at Sevastopol and simply retaken it. Keeping Sevastopol clogged means you can't get builds in there.
I don't have much experience in Gunboats since I prefer talking and comm over silence hands down. - : Re: New Episode of DiplomacyCast is up! http://diplomacycast.com
I've had a problem attempting to contact you guys through your site with some generic questions. I don't know if this is a problem experienced by multiple people or simply myself... - : Re: A northern variation of the Key Lepanto?
My question is where do Russia and England both gain 2 builds? Usually England only gains 1 and if he gives up Norway to Russia then he's stuck being stagnant for a while so that Russia can gain a few more centers. Also, if Germany is worth his weight in Diplomacy points, he will either a) bounce Russia at Sweden or b) assume the possibility of an England attack given a northern opening and will be able to defend against the air-dropped Russian unit. Also, it doesn't change a whole lot since England could just as easily convoy his own unit to wherever he wants to drop a Russian unit and they're both in the same boat but with less strain put on England since he doesn't have to worry about a Russian stab a few years down the line.
I'm interested in seeing the game you played, though, so by all means, post the link. - : Re: Hardest country to play in Diplomacy?
For some reason I find it hard to play as Turkey. Hopefully my Turkish skills will change a bit but I agree with Dejan. Turkey is really hard if you face a Lepanto. Juggernauts are heavily pro-Russian and if you're facing a Lepanto then you have to either make the hard choice to side with Russia and hope you come out somewhere positive or try to convince either Austria or Italy to not attack you. Couple that with the fact that Turkey gets bottle-necked pretty easy, it's hard to impossible to gain ground early on.
Every other country I seem to do really well at. I do really well as Russia and France, and have reasonably moderate success with England, Germany, Italy and Austria.
As for the Lepanto, there are plenty of ways to successfully run it. I usually (but not always) prefer to ally with Austria and Russia and fight Turkey. After Turkey is down, its a pretty easy thing to ally with Russia against Austria or keep Austria as an ally, let him take on Russia while you move west. As long as you keep your diplomatic relations up, you should do pretty good. - : Re: Sequels You Wish Would Happen
I'd like to see some new Star Wars movies. They make a ton of good series books that could be turned into trio's.
I think a new Indiana Jones would simply suck like the newest one. - : Re: Anonymous/Non-anonymous new take
Personally, I prefer non-anon. I am a very personable character and enjoy learning new people and not having to associate personality with "anonymous" and then cut and paste the character and personality of mr anonymous onto their true name after the game is over. In addition, I am of the type to search through a profile, look at strengths and weaknesses, play style, common game factors, whether or not he is 'subject to change', etc. There's nearly an unlimited supply of information that can be gleaned from a player's profile before the game begins.
Where I think anonymous games gain their biggest benefit is in the League and other tournament games where players are more inclined to oust the leader. I've noticed that better players are not necessarily inclined to remove the perceived best player in a game (tall poppy) and this usually happens in strongly unbalanced games where a novice is playing with a bunch of vets or a vet is playing with a bunch of novices. - : Re: Rapture Tomorrow - What to do about mass NMRs?
I don't know where you get the idea that the Rapture is happening tomorrow... - : Re: New Game
gotta start somewhere - : Re: Someone is cheating...
I say we ban the next person to post in this thread. They've been watching for quite some time and plotting evil--a banable offense. - : Re: Someone is cheating...
Draug is questioning my sincerity--mods, after him! - : Re: Someone is cheating...
I for one think that its been too long since our last witch hunt. bring on the false accusations. - : Re: Self Culture
My bro lives in LA county as a paramedic. School let out for me and I maintained a 3.0 and I welcome the break to work heavy. - : Re: Someone is cheating...
@Matt G--if trends continue, then apparently the best way is to accuse everyone in the forum openly in order to get someone to post the email address while everyone else beats you with broom sticks and shouts "witch!" - : Re: Game needs 2 more people
We will soon need only one more player to go!!! Looking for someone to play.
Password is 'protected'
JOIN NOW - : Re: Forum needs 2 more "Game needs 2 more people" topics
lol, thats funny. it was actually a browser error and when i refreshed the page, it posted a second time.
actually, you should join the game tho. password is protected - : Re: Best Lepantos
I strongly disagree with b's assessment of the Lepanto. I have been very successful with Italy playing the Lepanto (and not Key version either):
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=13087#gamePanel
That's my Master's win with Italy going into the Lepanto.
In order to be successful with the Lepanto, you have to have a friendly Austria (which isn't terribly hard to get) and focus on Turkey. In addition, the Lepanto does *not* have to convoy the army to Syria. Italy can out-muscle Turkey in the southern sea zones with Austrian help. In addition, your first gains can come at Greece or Bulgaria and after Turkey loses its first center, then it's downhill from there. Your goal is to get Italy and Austria to take on Russia and Turkey. Since you are 100% focused on Turkey and Austria is split 50/50 or even 60/40 with some measure of focus at Turkey, then you're golden. If you ensure Austria keeps busy while you're picking apart Turkey, your job is simple.
In addition, as long as you keep good communication with Russia while you're taking down Turkey, you have an ally to fight against Austria if you want the stab. If not, then you simply talk your Austrian ally to focus east against big Purple while you either go west or take the stab for convenience.
Those that continually attack Austria at the outset as Italy will eventually find a game in which they are eliminated by a Juggernaut or powerful Turkey. Plain and simple. - : Re: Down to1 game :(
C'mon people, I know 3 more want to join. Message me for the password. - : Re: Statistical Report
I'm sending out emails now... - : Re: Statistical Report
There could be compatibility issues since the file is a .docx and uses charts from a .xls which are both current versions of Word and Excel. I don't know if downloading the current viewers would help or not. The charts might not be compatible with your open office spreadsheets. - : Re: i hate playing england
Some other pertinent information about England is the following: While it contends with ultimately three rivals (F, G, R) it only has to deal with two in the beginning (F & G) because Russia will be too absorbed with the south to care much about the north early on.
The greatest benefit to England is its limited opening list. The absolute goal in the first year has to be to convoy the army to some mainland area (Norway or Belgium preferably) and if you can do it with the blessing of another nation, then you more power.
Don't neglect fleets. There are more coastal zones than landlocked zones meaning that England can win with 10 or more fleets on the map. An average England will have 6-10 fleets on the map by the game's end. If you can balance the number of fleets to armies in any given game, then you will be much harder to take down later on.
It's always a good idea to keep a fleet in the North Sea and an army on the Island because North Sea is the most vital sea zone in the game and an army on your Island is far more versatile and maneuverable than a fleet.
Expect stabs and watch your flank (MAO). Let nothing into the Channel.
Know the location of your stalemate lines. If you're going to win, then you need to get past St Petersburg or the Mid Atlantic by mid-game.
Last but not least, make sure to talk to the other countries on the map, especially those that impact France and Germany the most (communicate heavily with France and Germany but also Italy and Austria). Find an ally somewhere that will keep other nations in check. - : Re: Help for feeling like a bad person?
In the game of Diplomacy, there are no alliances. There are simply agreements between two countries based on temporary mutual gain, and these shift throughout the game. If it's more beneficial for you to stab, then do it. If you can't stab without feeling bad about it, and are unable to be stabbed and not whine about it, go play Risk. - : Re: Statistical Report
I'm guessing you opened it in a browser window instead of opening the actual file. The attachment should have the ability to open it in Word. You can also download it and open it from there. - : Re: Diploholics Anonymous
Quitters never win...you'll be back. - : Re: Down to1 game :(
Still looking for a few additions to the game. - : Re: Statistical Report
@fabio: If you sent me an email, I'll send one out tomorrow morning.
@gigantor: thanks alot! - : Re: Statistical Report
The paper has been sent out at close to 50 pages. If anyone has problems or questions or simply wants to comment, feel free to do so. - : Re: Down to1 game :(
That makes 4. 3 more to go. - : Re: Down to1 game :(
The game is up: http://www.webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=58496 - : Re: Down to1 game :(
Well I'll make it non anon then. No one else has put forward their opinion. - : Re: Down to1 game :(
I'll create the game either late tonight or sometime tomorrow, password it and send the info out to those interested. The game will be anonymous unless there is a majority vote against it. - : Re: Statistical Report
sure thing. Just shoot me an email so that you don't get left out. - : Re: Statistical Report
Ok. I'll send you both out one. I'll also post when it has been sent out in case I missed someone. - : Re: Down to1 game :(
Great! - : Re: Statistical Report
sure. just shoot me an email - : Re: Statistical Report
Currently on the recipient list are the following. If I'm missing someone let me know:
ybellz
uclabb
President Eden
Siddhartha
Zach Rallo
Jin Niu
IKE
gigantor
chtalleyrand
Babak
shaun
David Landry
Fortknox
Yonni - : Re: Down to1 game :(
when I can get 4 or 5 takers. anon if people want. - : Re: Statistical Report
I don't mind emailing you the data as well. Remind me when I send out the reports to include the spreadsheets as well. - : Re: Statistical Report
bump - : Re: Choices! So many choices!
I'll play depending on the phase length. I like 2-day phases since I'm uber busy with work, school and family. If the game has that feature, then I'm in. I don't think the 3-day I'm in is going to start. - : Re: Statistical Report
I cordially disagree but it's not worth the debate. Thanks and I hope to continue to find more things to include as the years go by. I love statistics (hence the fact I'm a mathematician in progress) and it's been really fulfilling to do this. - : Re: Most amazing thing ever to happen ever.
um...Chuck Norris ate my homework? - : Re: Statistical Report
Ill make sure you get a copy :)
Yes, I have a lot of controls going into the game selection (hence the manual collection of games as opposed to allowing a program to tally stats) and CD's in the first year are one of them. All games observed came from this site.
@Geofram: Yes, a year on and off (during semesters). I didn't have the capability to collect data with a program that has the ability to filter games the way I needed it to. If you can do it, feel free to do so and email me a copy of the numbers in a readable format and I'll perform the stats on em. Statistically, however, all you need are sample sizes of 30 or greater for ease of the formulas. - : Re: Statistical Report
Yes. It took a long time but for the results, it was way worth it. To be honest, this endeavor has spanned about a year in the making to get everything going into this.
I've actually never opened the sql file even when I had Java and C++ on my laptop. - : Re: i check diplomacy way to often =/
My wife thinks I check the site way too often but I find as long as I don't admit I have a problem then I don't start down the path to "recovery". - : Re: Statistical Report
@ Babak: To begin with, to fully answer IKE's question a little more clearly, you really don't want to separate out high calibur games because then you dont' get the full scope of the game. Anytime you sample a specific demographic you will indeed change the results (to some degree). Rather, you want an accurate reflection of the game as a whole. To cite two examples:
A) Let's assume that you wanted to test the health of the average American and you find that 2% of all Americans have heart-related problems. This accurately reflects the adult population (the number is merely a proposition and not intended to be accurate). If you instead test all adults of retirement age and higher, this number is bound to go up because you change the demographic.
B) for the game of Diplomacy, here is how the numbers would change: Some countries would indeed have slightly higher win percentages (Italy and Austria for example) and all of them would have higher draw percentages because most high-caliber games end in draws and the average draw type is no longer a 3-way as it is in the game under normal conditions. If you want the raw data for the average player in an average game of Diplomacy (which is what the report is a reflection of), then you need to account for ALL games.
To answer the other questions: I do not list Gunboat or Public Messaging games, I do account for anonymous games, PPSC and WTA because they are a part of the natural game. I do not count games where the server was in its early stages (back when you could end a game before a player reached the 18 SC's needed to win). I do count live games or other "classic" games so long as no one went into CD within the first full year.
All of the controls I have accounted for are listed in the introduction to the paper itself
@Geofram and Figle: To get my data, I filtered through the archives by the type I wanted, manually opened each and every game for the first 5-6,000, checked the first and second season of each and carefully recorded data the old-fashioned way. Using any type of program would pick games that I wanted to bar from my list. I don't want inappropriate outliers in my data since many of the statistics rely on normal data and the presence of outliers can corrupt the statistic. No offense to anyone who is offended by this (?) but it more accurately reflects the nature of the game. - : Re: Video Release!
Lady Gaga makes me want to vomit on someone. Habitually. - : Re: Statistical Report
Statistically, your statement is rather inaccurate. It is assumed that since each game is independent of the others and that since there is a simple random sample taken of games, you'll see games that contain experienced vs experienced, experienced vs inexperienced and inexperienced vs inexperienced types of games. This being the fact, the statistics will apply (in general) regardless of who is playing. I have stated that there is some minor difference for some countries but the overall information applies regardless of who is playing.
If you begin to separate games between experienced and inexperienced players then you get a skewed version of what really goes on with the game.
To cite an example: if a group of inexperienced players are playing, they are more likely to do strange things but given that it's easier to win with certain countries than others, the trend will remain that x country wins y percent of games.
In the report, I'm examining over 5,000 games and the odds that skewing is occurring based on who is playing the game is reduced to essentially nothing. Where there is a discrepancy between high caliber games and low caliber games, it has been noted,even still, that discrepancy is rather small. - : Re: Statistical Report
I can list them in order, but I looked at the first 100 games using the various openings for each country. Galicia is tied for the most common with moving to Trieste. - : Re: Statistical Report
also, there are plenty of colorful charts and graphs to illustrate everything :) - : Re: Statistical Report
The report will include the following details:
--success percentages (win, draw, survival, elimination) per country
--distributions on the year of victory (how long it takes a country to win)
--the success rates of other countries compared to a given country (given that A wins, draws or is eliminated, what other countries win, draw or are eliminated)
--the distribution of units (how many fleets a country uses to win)
--the number of units any country needs on the map in order to win
--the ratio of messages to success rate
--how a country's win percentage increases or decreases based on a country being eliminated
--success rate of various common opening moves (whether or not one opening move yields more favorable results than another common move or uncommon moves in general, i.e. do your chances of winning go up or down depending on how you move your units in the first spring phase)
There are also a spattering of other statistics used throughout the report and conclusions are drawn based on what is seen.
If anyone has anything they would like to see that isn't listed above (that I think is reasonable to study), then feel free to post it. I'll let you know if I can reasonably include it into the report or if it's simply too time consuming to include anytime soon.
I anticipate that I will be completed with it late next week and will email a copy to anyone who requests one.
To get on this list, simply email me at joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu and as it's done, I'll email you one. - : Re: Playing with the Best of the Best
I'll join. - : Re: bun that hecker lol
lol, those were some buns. I feel a thread hijack coming... - : Re: Playing with the Best of the Best
I might be talked into joining. I haven't played a high caliber game in a good while and I had a game get cancelled recently. - : Re: bun that hecker lol
and the witches crawl out of the woodwork! BUN! BUN THEM ALL! - : Re: bun that hecker lol
also, i repeated myself due to a browser glitch. the original post didnt show up in my browser so i posted the reply again. the second time it executed completely. - : Re: bun that hecker lol
yes - : Re: bun that hecker lol
o, and NMR also means "no move received". Its when a player orders all units to hold for non-consecutive seasons. - : Re: bun that hecker lol
o, and NMR also means "no move received". Its when a player orders all units to hold for non-consecutive seasons. - : Re: bun that hecker lol
which is great for killing witches, btw - : Re: bun that hecker lol
nuclear magnetic resonance... - : Re: Just entered the double digits for my wins!
@ Speaker: technically you are still only in single digits in binary as well. 1 is represented as 0000 0001. Once you get one more win, however, then you'll see double-digits. - : Re: bun that hecker lol
just out of curiosity...why are you playing in three games with a guy you can't stand (i see another witch hunt forming...)? - : Re: bun that hecker lol
I'm glad to know that we were the pivotal hinge to the greatest cause the world has ever seen. - : Re: Sexist
In all fairness, the way it sounds in your paper is that all men should get paid more in logging. Is output the only thing that matters? What about injury rate or days taken off for sickness or personal leave. What about work ethic or attitude? These count for something as well.
Also, college is only PART about the grade. In fact, you'll find statistically that people who had mid-range GPA's tended to hold higher-paying jobs and those who had high GPA's in high school and college tended to have mid-range paying jobs. - : Re: The Enemy of My Enemy is My Enemy
+1 indy
Also, what I don't get is how England consistently failed to recognize that by not covering his home centers, France could simply retreat his fleet to yet another center. France should have been crushed that game but England continued to make regular mistakes and France reaped the rewards.
I also enjoyed the fight over Belgium for the first three game years. - : Re: bun that hecker lol
he's joking dea. If a guy has 10 days to finalize orders, he's well within his rights to take all 10 days. I do it all the time and almost never finalize (maybe twice or three times a game and usually on build phases). It's your fault for joining a slow-paced game. - : Re: I would like to change my screen name.
It's likely that you'll just have to quit playing as this name, create a new name and notify the mods. You'll lose your stats but it's the price you pay. It's highly unlikely that they'll change your name for you in the system for a variety of reasons. - : Re: Diplomatic Tactics
@Lief, I'm currently working on them. I have all the stats drawn up and I'm putting them into a report. Austria's report is complete and I'm almost done with England. To highlight the stats I used, Austria's win percentage is 6.8%. This number has a small bump up when looking at only games ending in a solo to 9.9%. In games where Turkey is eliminated, Austria's win percent skyrockets to 29% while it drops -4% when England is defeated. It really shows the interconnectedness of all the countries. - : Re: Live games
Draugnar, if you're spending long times in the bathroom, I'm not going in after you're done. - : Re: Live games
It's like my dad always said "You should have gone before we left" - : Re: Diplomatic Tactics
At three centers in S01 or F01, you can chalk up trying to talk sense to someone, especially as Austria unless there's a clear Western Triple or Juggernaut taking place. Even then, in low-caliber games, Italy is still likely to take you out and in noob games its impossible, especially when Germany becomes a threat (which should never happen btw).
If any country can survive beyond the first three years with at least a small handful of units, then anything is possible. Interesting enough, there's actually a series of statistics that show how a country's win percentage increases or decreases based on who is defeated. For example, if Austria survives to see the defeat of Turkey, its win percentage skyrockets but if it sees the downfall of England, its win pct drops. - : Re: Live games
3 minutes would probably put undue stress on someone with 15 units to command. After the time drops down to so low, you begin to lose certain elements of the game, and adequate planning is boiled down into frantic unit movement while diplomacy is thrown out the window after you have anything more than 6 units. The original game is scripted for 15 minute phases in FTF play, and cutting that by 1/3 for 5 min phases cuts out some of that element already, but not to the point that it's not manageable. dropping that down to three minutes is a bit ridiculous. most games would end draws, and working with someone in-game to produce strategic holds along stalemate lines involving two or more parties would be impossible. - : Re: i guess this a newbee question
+1 spyman, that's a pretty good list.
If I ever play in the Game Master Series again, or ever join the Leagues, I want it to be anonymous. If you ever get a win, people will purposely focus more on you to prevent you from getting another one from the beginning. In low pot games or isolated games, this isn't much of a problem.
In general, though, I prefer to know who I'm playing against. Anonymous games are slightly more prone to metagamers. - : Re: Best WD Games?
There's no problem with it, I just wouldn't rank it as one of the greatest games ever like some others have been doing. Who am I to spoil someone else's fun? Great games are the ones that go down in history as great stabs, excellent defenses that turn tides or big shockers that have you on the edge of your seat if you are playing in them.
Plus when I was saying that it took a long time, I wasn't indicating real-time, merely the 9 game years it took to complete. - : Re: Diplomatic Tactics
I can agree with that for the most part. It wouldn't stop me from testing the waters, though. Worst case scenario is that I'm beaten back a bit and forced to renegotiate and settle for a draw. Again, however, it goes back to seeking aid from the other powers. You offer your services to one of the equally matched powers in a way that benefits you a little (having a survival instead of elimination) and them a little more (here it benefits them with a better position on the map).
As a stand-alone, it doesn't usually work, but in conjunction with effective communication with all players on the map, it is very powerful. - : Re: quick question
Alternatively, anyone with these types of questions could download RealPolitik, set up the board the way it is, and run it on their adjudicator. Just a thought...Also, I'm sure there are places on the web to get a free copy of the game rules (updated versions even). - : Re: Diplomatic Tactics
Because in general, the "Mutual Shared Destruction" tactic doesn't work. If someone stabbed you and has you at their mercy, then clearly they made the attack when they were stronger and it doesn't matter if you "suicide" yourself at them because they have you on the ropes already. Your weak attempts at "bringing them down with you" is all hot air.
It's much like if you are bullying a kindergartner out of their lunch money and they say "If you don't give that back, I'm going to take you down with me!" Clearly the threat has no real voice.
Anyone found in this situation should seek out aid from the other players on the map (preferably ones that are equal in strength to the aggressor) and work out a deal that benefits you a little bit and the other party a little more. That way, once the enemy is under more pressure than he can handle, it gives you more leverage to bring to the bargaining table. - : Re: Best WD Games?
I agree. I thought it was weird that he didnt get the win when everyone else was defeated like it does when everyone else CD's - : Re: Best WD Games?
-1 Draug and Troodonte, that was the most pathetic game I saw. I alluded to it in my post. he spent over half the game dicking around for no real purpose other than to have all the centers. It was a waste of time on his part and a bunch of retardedness by the other players who were clearly extremely sub-par. - : Re: Best WD Games?
If you search far enough, there were some really funny games. A few of them involved the winner (person to reach 18 centers) went into CD and the remainder of the countries drew the game and split the pot.
Another game had all 7 countries go into CD for 26 years (likely a passworded game) before conflict began.
A third game saw one guy playing England who had 17 centers and clearly could take 18 but chose not to. Instead the other players gave up and quit while he moved his units into position, forced units to disband and spent over 10 game years trying to take all 34 centers. At one point, he convoyed from St Pete to Armenia, failed on a return convoy, successfully convoyed back, and then returned to Armenia. He dicked around forever before finishing the game. Sad that it took him that long to do something so pointless. - : Re: Name
i don't think there's much of a problem if you contact a mod, create a new account and have them boot the old account. you'll be back at zero though. - : Re: Suggestion- buying points
I don't think buying diplomacy points leads to much and I don't see the problem with it. I do, however, see a problem with creating a membership fee. Membership fees would only increase problems on the site. For example
--what happens if a member quits paying the fee, does he go into CD? There are problems with that, especially for league games or higher stakes games
--adding a fee means that the number of people on the site will drop off quite a bit in favor of free sites
--your average game already takes a month or longer to play (assuming 1 day phases or higher) and if a membership fee spans only a month, then you may not even get to play an entire game for the cost of one month's fee.
the site is great primarily because it's free and has a ranking system (two technically). - : Re: Dropping the atom bomb
we already had a series of advances that made our units more powerful than other countries. our advanced radar systems were finally defeating the german subs by gunning them down before they saw us coming. additionally, the japanese would have fallen soon as it is. granted, we were nervous that the germans would have developed a-bomb technology before us and we used it more out of fear than really thinking through things. the bombs did far worse than good, especially since we sent millions of dollars after the war to aid cleanup and many civilian lives were lost as well. i cannot justify using a bomb that powerful, even if it pales in comparison to current weaponry. - : Re: Biggest dunce moves
There was a game in which I was playing Germany and I had the opportunity to stab France when he built a fleet in Marseilles but didn't have sufficient forces at home to protect himself. His nearest army was in Spain. A crippled England was also desperately seeking a way back into the game and relieving French pressure. I selected to continue to put heat on England and not stab France that spring and instead wait for a more opportune time.
France convoyed the Spanish army onto the English Isle and the Marseilles fleet sailed off toward weak Italy and in the following build season built armies and moved them against me. England had 1 center remaining and I was only able to stem the French tide for so long. - : Re: Metagaming clarification
this sort of thing is difficult to police. it's easier to recognize someone who always allies with another player but might as well be impossible to pick out someone attacking you because of another game. in either case, it's poor show. poor players and new players will not make the distinction between one game and the next.
i've said it before and it applies here: if you do your homework on the other players on the map, then this sort of thing is less likely to catch you unaware and you can easily prevent a problem before it happens. - : Re: Quick Question
a unit can also support hold on a jar of peanut butter while another unit turns the lid. fyi - : Re: Is it possible at all to contain Turkey from expanding past France?
in diplomacy, if you don't know the location of stalemate lines, you're going to lose more games than are necessary instead of turning them into draws.
I remember this one really irritating game where i was playing austria. italy was defeated as was germany and france. england and russia were hard pressed against me and turkey had gone into civil disorder (he was previously an enemy when he left). I had a stalemate line established against russia by supporting holds on the turkish CD'd units and was one year out from getting a stalemate established against england putting me into a position to enjoy a 4-way draw (three way since turkey wouldnt have gotten a slice).
Turkey came out of CD and i told him what was going on.and that he could get in on the draw if he simply supported holds across his territory. instead, the idiot stabbed me, allowing russia to get a foothold and returned to CD. i ended up losing the game. - : Re: bug..
just like a cockroach. click the lights on and it disappears... - : Re: 4 More Players for a 2-day PPSC
three more and we're golden. by "we" i mean the players in the game. not me specifically because i'm not playing the game...so...its 4 other guys...named anonymous. - : Re: New Variant
the problem i see with a 1v1 map is that once one person begins to dominate, there's no stopping them. that would be the biggest hurdle to cross. if someone manages to come up with a 1v1 variant, then more power to them. with the way the rules are set up, i don't see that happening. In chess, you start out with your max number of units and the other player has to remove yours from the map. in diplomacy, you gain or lose units based on property control - : Re: "ninja" players
very tru. i just noticed that there are a lot of other players with the handle of ninja. didn't know if it was a growing trend or simply that others wanna copy my name. - : Re: "ninja" players
If you see one on this site, give them the lashing they deserve. Even if their name doesn't say "ninja" but they think they are, the sham should be exposed. - : Re: New Variant
two player variant...isnt that called chess? how much diplomacy can you really put into a two player diplomacy game? - : Re: is it just me?
I personally think the variants are rather unbalanced. They don't have the extensive play-testing that went into the classic game map. I won't play the variants. - : Re: Game statistics
glad you liked it :) - : Re: Resigning could mean winning?
+1 Draug, you can evidence this fact by other games in similar situations. The final outcome has names of players CD'd crossed out in the same manner as the defeated player's names are listed. - : Re: Game statistics
its exponential and the formula is as messy as the stab - : Re: On Charity in Christianity...
actually, there's a segment of christianity that teaches a horridly false doctrine that goes along those lines. its a group called "word of faith" and they believe that God's will isn't for any of his children to be sick, diseased, crippled, poor, etc. God gives them health, wealth and happiness in this life. They base all of their teachings on skewed verses throughout the bible and the most common theme is to "sow your financial seed and reap the reward".
It's a very capitalist money-hungry way to view things and these preachers flaunt their wealth and look down on the poor thinking they are poor, unhealthy, crippled, etc because they lack faith.
its crap at its core and does not represent 99.9% of the christians in the world. - : Re: A Couple New Games
message me if you get it going. - : Re: Game statistics
@fortknox: by hand :) i used the search engine within this forum to look at specific types of games, opened each one up (at least 1300 of them anyhow) and wrote down info by hand which then made it to an excel spreadsheet where i calculated the sample means, standard deviations and other info and then produced histograms from there. - : Re: Game statistics
@MKECharlie: I can get it to you, but the problem is that it's currently in my notebook. I'd have to scan the pages and the graph would be difficult to read at best. I'm in the works of transferring it to a spreadsheet which will take some time.
@Yonni: Yes and no. Yes in that I initially did this report a year ago and it was done loosely for all 7 countries but the report is for Austria and England (due to time constraints) and has since been updated. Some of the openings don't necessarily reflect accurate statistics (the data are fine but the stats rely on a sample size of 30+ which I didn't have at the time).
I'm in the works of doing it for all 7 countries as well as including additional opening moves based on common moves made on this site. The basis for the names of the opening moves came from (originally) Diplomacy Pouch's proper names. Since that time it has been updated and many of the original names used by Richard Sharp have been deleted and many of the common openers have been replaced by others. Thus, the names for the opening moves common to this site are based first on Richard Sharp's book and where that fails, I create my own.
Anyone can currently request a copy of the incomplete stats or wait a few weeks to a month for the updated copy. My email is joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu - : Re: A Couple New Games
i might join if one of the games are two day phases. - : Re: Game statistics
I also have stats on the correlation between messages per game and win/draw pct. I'm currently working on a project for a stat class that goes more in depth by country. - : Re: Game statistics
I also have stats on the correlation between messages per game and win/draw pct. - : Re: Game statistics
Here's the link to the infoRough win percentages by country and the most successful opening moves:
http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=558670
Austrian Statistics:
http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=493200
English Statistics:
http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=494156
French Statistics:
http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=495440
German Statistics:
http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=496126
Italian Statistics:
http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=496446
Russian Statistics:
http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=497743
Turkish Statistics:
http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=497745
@Hellenic Riot: Yes, there used to be some problems with games on this site. When 6 out of the 7 players stopped playing (or all 7), the one that played most recently would receive the win. Sometimes the number of centers were as few as 3 by one player with the other 6 resigning. Very early on, a number of games had wins where a player had 17 centers or even 16 and were declared the winner. The problems have been resolved and you won't see them anymore. - : Re: Game statistics
I can link you to a forum thread I put out there that contains that information (although the stats are out of 1000 games and not out of the 22k that this site boasts. The 22k will be off since there are a ton of games that contain multis, wins with less than 18 centers and other things that skew the information). - : Re: EOG Live Game!!!-4
After looking at the game, it was basically handed to England on a silver platter. Italy was foolish enough to leave his centers along the west end wide open while several players in the game routinely failed to submit orders or submitted only half orders (or in one instance only 1 unit moved).
Two good rules of thumb to live by are:
a) in order to prevent being stabbed, don't expose your back
b) give orders to as many units as possible, even if they are simply support hold orders. A unit that has no orders is a unit that might as well not even be on the map. - : Re: Pests
@Alderian: "I just don't understand why someone would value a survive in a WTA game. If someone wins, then you lose whether you have centers left or not. Far more fun to harass the big guy in the backfield. Did it keep you from soloing? "
The bottom line is that as long as you're alive, you can participate in a draw. Thus, if the only way to stay alive and hope for a draw is to do whatever the only guy who can kill you says, then by all means, do it to survive. If the potential for a stab later on presents itself, then you've lost nothing and have everything to gain. - : Re: Hall of shame:
@yebellz that may be true but im sure hes still there for the all-time list. i havent checked it recently, but lets hope so. - : Re: Hall of shame:
i could care less. everyone i played with that was banned i beat. let em die. although i think they should also be removed from the ghost-rating list. there was this guy who was (and still might be there) ahead of me in position who was a multi. ticked me off. - : Re: longest games
wow, that's a bit obnoxious. i would have stabbed that agreement long before 1930. - : Re: longest games
intentionally delayed for a century? - : Re: Regular reports of cheaters in games posted on the forum
You'll find that i never email the mods about assumed cheaters. I've found that people who do cheat in games, do so because they suck at it and it is far easier for me to talk to the other players on the map and gang up on one or both of them quickly to prevent it from being a problem in later years.
I would also venture to say that at least 50% of all the accusations out there are false claims. - : Re: did the zero SC survive get fixed or do you have to have a unit to get it?
Either way, it's always safer to let the game scroll for another season to be safe. I've seen plenty of games (although never played in any) where a 0 SC player participated in a draw. - : Re: Regular reports of cheaters in games posted on the forum
a) are they relatively new to the site? If not, and they've played in a couple dozen games or more, they are likely not metagaming.
b) are they currently playing or have played other games with the same person or people? If so, the chances increase as to the likelihood of them knowing those other players in person (unless they have been on the site for a while, at which point you'll see older members playing with each other rather frequently)
c) If the answer to 'b' is 'yes' then open the game up and scroll through a few turns. Did they work together? Are they still allied? Do they regularly draw together?
If you do these things, see something suspicious, and think it might happen in this game, there are two things you can do:
a) if you haven't started the game yet, quit.
b) if you have started the game, then use this information to your benefit when talking to the other players in the game.
If other vets have other useful things to add, feel free to post them. - : Re: Pests
+1 Thucy and spyman
I've turned a nagging 1 unit into a support unit in a few games and it's always rewarding. It's also to their advantage as much as it is yours. - : Re: longest games
I had one game that ended in 1916. It was my first game I played here and I took over a CD Germany on the downward slide. Almost turned it into a draw but ended the game with 16 centers instead. - : Re: Masters Tourney
@TGM: I misunderstood games/year--this would still be a bit problematic because more messages are sent early on and less later in the game. Thus you dont get a true normal curve, rather you get a curve that is skewed-right and you have to make additional changes to the statistics and other assumptions in order to have semi accurate measurements - : Re: Masters Tourney
@Eliphas: I counted draws since they are reasonable. A draw is simply a win shared by a group and you cannot possibly draw (unless in a 7-way draw) unless you effectively communicate with others on the map.
@Alderian: Yes, live games are a problem since in many of the live games I examined, in most games there were at least one or more CD'd countries. They have to be calculated, however, because it's unreasonable to separate them from the message count. Also, how many players have played only games where no one CD'd? I would venture to say none or nearing none. - : Re: Masters Tourney
@TGM: I simply took the messages they sent, counted the games they played that were not gunboat games or public messaging games and simply did the math. Messages per year would be a bit difficult as many of the people don't have much in the way of games played. I had a minimum of 10 games as a requisite for the count and I took random samples from the Ghost-Rating list to produce an unbiased statistic taken from a simple-random-sample. - : Re: New Ghost-Ratings up
im not on this month's list :( been gone too long. i should be back on the list within a month or two. - : Re: Masters Tourney
btw, if anyone is ever interested in the statistics that i perform on the game, let me know. you can email me at joshua.mcowen227@topper.wku.edu and I can send you them. - : Re: Masters Tourney
If i were to guess who's top in the msg/game, it would be djbent. she has over 300 as well. i think it was up in the 320+ range. although, the one game i played with her, she didn't talk much. course that could be because she was eliminated pretty quickly... - : Re: Assaulted Giants Fan Showing Signs Of Brain Damage
to get back to the 49ers fans in LA, im sure it has to do with the 9ers being an NFC team and the Raiders an AFC team and they rarely play each other and are not division rivals, thus there's not a high degree of animosity between the two. Chargers and Raiders, however, is going to be pretty big. - : Re: Masters Tourney
I did a statistical study a long time ago that dealt with the trend between the average messages sent per game by a player and their win/draw percentage.
It is true that there is a trend. The trend indicated that the more messages sent per game by a player, the higher the win/draw percentage and that this number increased at a reasonable ratio up to about the 70-90 msg/game and 50% win/draw mark before it began to level off. Therefore, noobs beware, if you're not talking to the other players in the game at regular intervals, you will likely lose. - : Re: Volunteer Advisors...
there's appropriate ways to address situations in a game without metagaming. it's one thing to tell someone how to move, its another thing to simply state what common things to look out for are.
most noob questions will commonly ask what to do in various situations and they will probably indicate who they are allied with, etc. when teaching, most 'students' simply want an answer to their question. they dont want to have to think about the problem. there are ways of posing information that gets them to think about the situation for themselves so that if they encounter the same situation in a future game, they can relate the two circumstances to each other. - : Re: Get it out of your system.
kinda strange, i dont mind lying or brutally stabbing someone in a game, but when it comes to insulting someone jokingly in a forum, it seems...kinda evil. - : Re: Get it out of your system.
im just kidding by the way. you dont suck at diplomacy, youre just not very good. - : Re: Get it out of your system.
nobody cares about your opinion. you suck at diplomacy. - : Re: Volunteer Advisors...
You can list me. - : Re: hi
good to see you again too jacob. when is a phone call going to happen, hmm? ive called you like a [insert more appropriate word for stalker]...at least twice all ready. i dont mind playing one but it will have to wait. right now, im training my bro and some of his friends on how to play the game (and, conversely, how to get stabbed) - : Re: New Ghost-Ratings up
woot up 7 spots. almost in the top 50 :) - : Re: Serious question concerning Ghost Ratings and games...
i agree with mm. i also dont understand where concern for their rating would cause them to not want to play in certain games. if you have a good gr then it would be beneficial to play against anyone. ive played games where the strength of your opponents factored heavily into your rating in which case its better to play against evenly matched players and not those below your skill level but as i understand it the gr system doesnt account for this. - : Re: Done with all my games and wont be on till september
initially after winning my first game as italy, i began to underestimate the competition. after being handed two swift elims and being forced into two draws in games i expected to win, i was rather humbled. good show to everyone i played against and i enjoyed the competition immensely. also, sorry for my horrid lack of press that began around mid may. i "accidentally" stepped into a large pile of overtime and it will take a while to get the smell out...hence the no show till sept. - : Re: So... why DON'T American care about soccer anyway?
the base answer is because in soccer, theres no contact. football is highly tactical, can change in a minute and every game matters. its not like in baseball or basketball where if you lose 10 games or even 3 in the championship game that your season is over. you have to play every game as the best in order to be the best. sissies need not apply. - : Re: Promises to Draw
@ krellin - i guess youve just played the wrong players. im always in it to win it and i draw when i cant. - : Re: Next week, I will take over the world.
i vote Atlantis. if you start somewhere at the bottom of the ocean then you cant go wrong. - : Re: What happened
also, if youre casting your vote (especially in florida), make sure that you punch the vote card completely. we wouldnt want any 'dimples' showing up that might throw off the voting process and force the florida systems to issue a recount...
also, for the record, my vote is to let this thread die honorably in battle. - : Re: Mature Subject Matter
i forgot to throw in the word 'diplomacy' so that that post fits into this thread so here it is:
diplomacy - : Re: Mature Subject Matter
@largeham - nah. art is anything you want it to be. just look at some of the crap they sell. i saw a TV series out of australia once where these two guys took junk from their house or wherever they could find and couldn't get rid of, took it to an art studio and set up a placard and tried to get it on display or even for sale. sometimes the art studio took it in, other times they turned them down.
some of the things that were successfully 'dumped' at the studio were this old stained up twin sized mattress that looked really gross, a broken clock and some other stuff. it was hilarious. - : Re: What happened
thats what i see in the orders log. the fleet supported the move and not convoyed. - : Re: I'm too sexy for my cat
this song went out of style about an hour after it hit the radio... - : Re: So entertained...
a moose once bit my sister. - : Re: Songs
"I Believe" by Third Day - an adaptation of Rich Mullins' song of the same name. - : Re: Cheating
people cheat so that they can feel like competitors. they know they suck at the game and the only way to win is to cheat. its pretty sad. anytime i play with someone and suspect multis, i immediately notify the rest of the map of the potential and work to remove one of them. after that, it levels things out. - : Re: Mod help - Slander!
i think games with multis shouldnt get removed from the stats. its a lot of work and what about the games where someone who wasnt a multi won and had a player banned for multi-accounting? what about draws? i do think that multis should have their names stricken from the ghost list, however, if thats not already the case. - : Re: Diplomacy Tips?
richard sharps book The Game of Diplomacy was my initial source.
ive also beento diplomacyworld and diplom.org (the diplomcay pouch) which are good sites. the wiki sources arent really worth their time especially for strategy. also, people here are always willing to give advice. - : Re: Leagues Betting
maybe its just me but the league betting seems to reduce the overall effectiveness of having D points. sure its fun, but there would be no point in having a hall of fame section for this type of rating system.
i think the betting sounds fun and interesting but if we maintain betting, i think then we should incorporate the ghost-rating system as an official rating system. i still like the idea of the D points since it reduces noobs joining higher pot games and reduces the effects of having to join games that potentially have multis. - : Re: Please delete Maniac's account
sometimes, i wonder at the fate of this forum... - : Re: Ugh, the situational rules...
a convoyed unit cannot cut support. - : Re: I need a quick answer...
also, if i ever play a FtF game with anyone, ill be glad to take real currency in exchange for my starting centers. - : Re: D&D 4e
mmm hero quest. havent played that game in a looooong time. if i owned it, though, id sell it. a good condition board and game components are worth a fortune. - : Re: D&D 4e
ive played GURPS. i liked the highly open-endedness of the system but never really got into it. ive played various white wolf games, cyber punk, dnd, star wars and a spattering of other systems including LARP's.
"Thats not a problem for DM who knows what hes doing"
+1 Jamie. ive played under some absolutely horrid GM's including some at gen con and i vowed never again to play under people like that. one guy even tried to get me to act out my move silently check. i didnt do it and so i failed the check. another guy i tried playing under once just gave up giving out xp for adventures and simply told the group how many levels they gained. - : Re: Ghost Ratings Question - I feel left out!
if you pay me, ill put in a good word for ya. - : Re: So I Saw Jesus, Moses, and Muhammad Walking To The Deli Earlier- Really! (Really?)
first off, im not here to debate. the scriptures arent the oldest work and thats not what i was stating. what i was saying is there was large scale scepticism to how true what we have was to an original text and so far, theyre basically word for word via handwritten scripts passed down through untold generations for 2000 years. and that is better than any work available.
i think you misinterpreted what i said earlier. - : Re: So I Saw Jesus, Moses, and Muhammad Walking To The Deli Earlier- Really! (Really?)
hands down, the Bible. over 5000 handwritten copies of the NT alone and concerning the OT, theyve found 2000 year old texts that are still basically word for word true to what we have today. the dead sea scrolls have been the greatest testament to Biblical scholarship and authenticity that we have found to date. - : Re: D&D 4e
@jamie: its not complicated after youve been doing it for a while. the problems with thac0 came when players were going below and above 0. sometimes you add numbers, sometimes you subtract. my buddy played for years like i did and he was always asking me whether to subtract or add.
i loved the versitility with 2e though. there was a lot to it and more flexibility, albeit with less guidance. i loved the dragon armors that were spelled out, all the material they continued to put out and it ran for so long. plus, earning a character was really earning it. now with earlier editions, they pump out books like nobody's business, its hard to keep up, and players expect to gain a level every adventure.
i played one character for 5 years under 2e and he made it to lv 11 (although we would mix campaigns/DMs so i wasnt always playing that character). in 3e, i had a lv 35 in 2 years. also, since the inception of 3e, theyve been updating editions like mad. it got old mastering a system and the rules and then having to switch to a new edition. - : Re: May Ghost-Rating Lists Released
@lulz: lol. its much better when you earn it :)
@Lan: im makin the climb myself. - : Re: So I Saw Jesus, Moses, and Muhammad Walking To The Deli Earlier- Really! (Really?)
i dont think that you find a serious minded individual out there fully capable of arguing the authenticity of scripture as a valid first-hand account of the happenings of the time. names, dates and locations have continued to be validated regardless of scepticism.
im sure youd also be hard-pressed to find an honest scholar that can honestly back up the gospel of thomas as well as the other gnostic writings as authentic. additionally, Scripture is the best preserved of any work the world has ever seen. that also is never an argument among scholars. plus, the reasonable translations dont translate into an english language from an english language, but rather use the closest copies to Scripture available. therefore where some meaning may be lost, the meaning that is lost is very basic and has nothing to do with the theology that Scripture is teaching.
i wouldnt go so far as hunter49r as to back up 'the message' Bible (which i wouldnt even use as a paper weight or bed-tme reading for anyone over the age of 4) but the real debate on the issue comes at what is contained within the Bible, its overall theme and its hint at future events. to that, i personally try not to argue over it. God has proven and re-proven Himself many times and if people choose to ignore the current evidence that God has provided, how can i possibly prove it even further.
im simply stating where Scripture stands on the issue and if you choose to ignore it, then thats your call. i would talk to someone who is asking genuine questions and not simply someone wishing to argue.
also, the closest gnostic writing came well over a century and a half after the death of christ and none of the gnostic writers were contemporaries of Christ or his disciples. - : Re: D&D 4e
one thing i love about dragons is that they can use spells and polymorph themselves into NPC's without anyone the wiser and simply polymorph back into dragon form when they want. its an element that you could easily throw into a campaign that they meet the dragon but dont realize it.
im currently play-testing a forum version of my star wars campaign which ive thoroughly enjoyed. - : Re: So I Saw Jesus, Moses, and Muhammad Walking To The Deli Earlier- Really! (Really?)
if some fool came to me and told me that he was Jesus, even if he performed untold miracles, i still wouldnt believe it. we live by faith and the fact that Scripture is God-breathed. Christ himself told his disciples on how the end times would come about and that he wouldn't have a second coming like the first. he also said to beware of false Christs since many would come in his name and fool the masses.
@hammac: scary or not, its the truth. God told us ahead of time so that we would watch and wait. of course there are going to be 'better' 'nicer' versions such as DJ's magician and hocus pocuser. the bible says also that the last days will be like the days of noah where people were eating and drinking up until the flood came. fools scoff at warnings of calamity and downplay the word of God.
im simply here to inform you of the truth of things. Christ wont come the same as he did the first time and he's been right on everything he said to date and so people need to be prepared for when he shows himself right in the future. - : Re: So I Saw Jesus, Moses, and Muhammad Walking To The Deli Earlier- Really! (Really?)
the problem that your argument has is that when jesus returns, he isnt coming for a visit. when he comes, Revelation tells us that he will come in the clouds and call his elect home and then bring about the judgement and wrath of God to the world.
after that time, various things will happen throughout the world that will kill, harm and affect massive portions of humanity. additionally, the anti-christ will come performing 'miracles' and many will be drawn to him.
so thats why its important for everyone to know where they stand with God in Jesus Christ. - : Re: D&D 4e
if i understand 4e correctly, there are no armor classes like you had in 3e and no AC like in 2e. the basis is still thats its a d20 + modifiers and you compare the result to the targets reflex defense. if the attack hits, then damage is dealt. its not a contested thing.
the purpose for the change to 4e was several fold: first, in 3e and 3.5, wizards were overpowered. i had an epic wizard whos DC's for spellcasting were so outrageous that most everything took a 20 to save. theyve tamed that down quite a bit and leveled out the classes. also, in earlier editions, as a DM, it took forever to roll up an NPC villian. now, time is cut from 20 minutes + down to maybe 5.
i liked 2e a lot but it was certainly not user friendly for newbies. the d20 system is much more stream lined and easier to learn and requires less 'heavy math', especially where THAC0's are concerned. i did like the wandering monster charts for wildernesses and dungeon encounters, though. i also like how if you had a lv 10 character, it took years to get that far and lv 20s were virtually unheard of unless you started playing when gary gygax was working the system.
i like 3rd and 3.5 more than 4 but i never took the time to try 4. my brother and his buddies did and they love it. i havent played dnd for about 6+ years and have intstead been playing star wars. i played dnd forever though. - : Re: D&D 4e
i played adnd 2e, 3, and 3.5 i currently play star wars SE whichis similar. i might be able to answer questions. - : Re: May Ghost-Rating Lists Released
up 2 spots for me and i hadnt completed games in april. very nice. - : Re: If your orders are "Saved" but not "Ready" when the time is up do they get submitted?
the one glitch to that is when a game is pause, however. when coming off a paused game there have been some lost orders by some who submitted orders during the pause. - : Re: The BIG DOG Syndrome
there is a lot of truth to the tall poppy syndrome where smaller fish work to take down the bigger fish first because the theory behind this is that it increases their odds of winning when hes gone.
diplomacy chnges this syndrome since talk and cooperation among players has such a huge impact on gameplay and turnout. usually this can trump being the big fish but not always. - : Re: The BIG DOG Syndrome
id say i agree with your 'top dog' syndrome or whats commonly referred to as tall poppy but overall, i disagree. just because someone has a ton of points going into a game doesnt mean that they are ganged up on. sure its likely more common but i have to say that a highly skilled player will have the ability to use a cross between diplomacy and good moves to keep himself afloat.
if someone has a high ghost rating or a lot of points then they should have the ability to reduce the effects of being ganged up on in many cases.
i personally dont play anon games since i enjoy knowing who im playing with. you learn someones style and how they think and that can be a real advantage. - : Re: I'm gonna ask you a bunch of questions, and I want to have them answered immediately!
...might be a tumor. ISS NOT A TOO-MAH! - : Re: private game
im interested but id have to finish a game already in progress. wta is fine although i prefer 48 hr phases since i have crappy internet, especially over weekends. anon is cool with me too so long as this isnt a gunboat game. not a fan. lemme know when you assume youll start since im in 4 TMG games and one side game. - : Re: Getting fiends playing, admin help please?
speaking of said tourneys, ive really enjoyed the master gamer tournament. you all have been really fun to play with. - : Re: The continuing search for expert critique!!
knowing when to work with someone, when to turn on someone and when to try reworking things with an enemy is a trained skill and has quite a learning curve to it. a good rule of thumb is to try to have people focused on the largest man on the map (even if youre allied with him/her) until you're that larger man.
foster relationships. be vague in communication where you can, give detail when you have to and keep more promises than you break. - : Re: The continuing search for expert critique!!
knowing when to work with someone, when to turn on someone and when to try reworking things with an enemy is a trained skill and has quite a learning curve to it. a good rule of thumb is to try to have people focused on the largest man on the map (even if youre allied with him/her) until you're that larger man.
foster relationships. be vague in communication where you can, give detail when you have to and keep more promises than you break. - : Re: The continuing search for expert critique!!
you can learn a lot from studying the first few years of any game you play. ill give you some positives and some negatives of your play
positives: love the move to piedmonte to scare france into thinking youre taking marseilles and curbing his opening growth.
love the move to greece. if you can ally with austria and guarantee yourself greece in A01 then you can ensure future growth as italy. alllying with austria and not getting greece means that you will not be very successful in a campaign against the east.
you did well in dismantling turkey and continuing growth
negatives: poor defense. italy doesnt take much to defend the boot but you have to leave an army nearby to keep out unwanted visitors. if all your units are way out east then youre begging to get stabbed and brutally so, usually by austria but sometimes by france. its suprising to see germany take the first of your centers.
you turned on austria way too early. if russia is growing quickly then you really need to continue communicating with the rest of the board. russia has the fastest path to victory out of any of the 7 countries and if R gets out of control, the worst thing you can do is ally with him, especially when you have half or less than half the centers he does. you can simply expect him to steamroll you as well. only after russia was under control should you have turned on austria and only if you dont have an enemy in france yet.
if you would have continued talking with germany then you would have had austria and germany focused on russia keeping him at bay and germany would have stayed out of your lands and giving you the ability to remove turkey and gain one last build. if you would have continued working with austria.
the best thing you can do for yourself is to come up with a plan and stick to it. keep an ally as long as you can until you have the upper hand and no enemies that need attention. - : Re: sticky posts
im sure kestas could establish a means by which no one could post to a topic and it could remain sticky. if a mod set up a thread with the one reply to generate the necessary information and then it would remain locked and sticky. dunno what that would entail - : Re: Messaging multiple players at once?
well, i think that n-way conversations is perfectly reasonable. in FtF games we would have them. i dont think it ruins the spirit of online play in any way and it would be completely optional. no one forces a person to participate in any type of conversation that they dont want to be part of.
although i disagree with warboner's method of dissing the site because personally, this is the best site i have seen out there by far, i dont disagree with simply placing a request for something that he would like to see on the forum.
i wasnt here very long before i asked that kestas install a user search feature to look up a specific user instead of hunting the forums for the name and clicking it. - : Re: Not Hitting Ready...
women are never ready. - : Re: Not Hitting Ready...
well, since everyone is getting crazy in this thread, my two cents shouldnt matter.
i dont advocate hitting women or hitting ready but you might compel me to use a woman to hit ready if i can get an SC out of the deal - : Re: DONT YOU HATE WHEN YOU'RE REALLY HUNGRY BUT TOO LAZY TO GET FOOD
+1 jamie
get a mini fridge and put it in your room. i had a microwave in my room when i was in high school.
i do have to say that thats pretty lazy though. - : Re: Around the NFL- Post NFL Draft Day One Talk
im a bronscos fan and i was suprised to see tebow go to denver as well. i was happy about our WR pick though and i think tebow will become a great part of our offense.
i also disagree with placing elway at #3. the only thing that made elway even that low on many peoples list is the lost of the first 3 super bowls but the difference between him and montana is that montana was surrounded by HoF talent where elway wasnt. he took a bunch of guys to the super bowl and truely was the leader on that team. hes also definitely better than favre. i think if elway had HoF talent surrounding him like the 9ers did then he would have won the first 3 super bowls as well. - : Re: What do I do if I think the game engine made a mistake?
well i agree with DBJ and think theres an easier way to say something, especially someone with less experience with this game engine than you.
for those that are curious about how moves will play out, you can download RealPolitik:
http://realpolitik.sourceforge.net/ - : Re: Does smelling like pot give a police officer probably cause to search?
@ DBJ: i used to have friends years ago that did acid and so id like to share my personal story with you. it may lend some comfort, but it also may not.
anyhow, i had a friend who did acid and ive never done drugs. at a certain point in my life, i accepted Christ as my savior. ive never been a fan of drugs but even less so after being 'saved'. my buddy knew this since he and i were really close at the time. one night i was going to his house to hang out and when i got there, he was high as a kite. after he told me he was high, i left. he knew i wasnt coming back that night and it was going to ruin our friendship. later on, i told him that i hated that he did drugs and he asked me the question "why should you care, its my body and it doesnt hurt you." i answered and said that he was my friend and that if he knew how much i cared about him and valued our friendship then he would understand why i didnt want him doing drugs. he knew that if he didnt quit, then it was going to cost our friendship. thankfully for me, he valued our friendship enough that he quit.
it might be that he wont listen to certain people, but theres almost always someone that they will listen to. he might get mad, but being defensive is natural and im sure that later on he dwells on what is said. if what you say to him is sincere enough, or if he hears it sincerely from the right people, then he will think about things and may even change. - : Re: Does smelling like pot give a police officer probably cause to search?
its definitely dependent on probable cause and what a police officer defines as the necessity to search. from everything ive experienced and seen, for the most part, cops leave someone high alone unless theres a greater thing going on. for example, i saw COPS on tv and a prostitute trying to buy crack gave someone money who then refused to give them the crack. the prostitute then stopped a cop so that he would get her money back. the cop could have arrested her because she admitted to trying to purchase an illegal substance but did not.
secondly, its a waste of time to bust small-time pot smokers in general because they alone could fill the local prisons and so unless theres something else going then i doubt smelling like pot would warrant anything. i have seen cops stop people that were coming from known drug areas late at night and stopped them for any simple reason because they suspected the individual possessed pot and purchased it from an area that frequently is caught selling it. in that case you're looking at a DUI, possible distribution if theres more than a certain amount, etc.
i guess the bottom line of what im getting down to is if youre walking around just smelling like pot then youre probably safe but if youre purchasing it or driving with it in your possession then they will be more likely to stop you. - : Re: Unrhyw Siaradwyr Cymraeg Yma?
42. the answer to everything. - : Re: If a player says 'i quit' ...
+1 Draug.
If someone's being a jerk in-game, use it to your advantage. It can help you establish a solid alliance base with other players. A simple truth that i've found is that you can use almost anything to your benefit.
secondly, when you play in higher stakes games, youll find that most 'pros' will simpily submit but not finalize in nearly every phase, even build phases. This buys them more time to examine the map, talk to players and make plans. it also gives them more time before they have to worry about what to do for a new phase. i can't tell you how many times i've submitted orders and not finalized, only to change them with an hour or two left before the next phase. if i'd have finalized along with everyone else, then i couldn't have decided on a better course of action. - : Re: Retiring
allow me to decipher this: after all of my games are done, im simply joining games with longer phases - : Re: An open letter from a physicist
those rules also sound like marriage vows
1) you cant win an arguent
2) your paycheck doesnt break even (it all belongs to her)
3) you cant quit because if you do, you simply pay child support - : Re: A Quotation
i agree with the quote. america has and is moving more and more socialist everytime obama makes a decision. although i agree that there has to be a fair balance between freedom and protection, i see our presidents decisions as acts against our constitution and against the freedoms of this country.if our president pushes his 'will' on this country without regard to majority opinion and desire or even without regard to the what this country had as its foundation as he has thus far, and if we as a country continue to let him then i see us flushing every scrap of freedom and morality we have left down the toilet. - : Re: Copy+Pasting Messages
also, you dont have to forge it all. you only need to change a bit. give him half, give him a few sentences. ive done it and its easily possible. it all boils down into what you want your opponent to know, what you want him to think he knows and what you dont want him to know. this is, in the very spirit of things, what diplomacy is about.
the only rule is that there are no rules. (other than multi-accounting, etc). also, no one said that you have to play that way. pick and choose how to play. some people refuse to lie, some refuse to even mislead or be vague. some keep alliances until they rot in their grave and others sell out their allies for a nickel. yes, forging that is possible in a few minutes because if you change one thing, then its a forgery. - : Re: Copy+Pasting Messages
very true, very true. oh the pains of diplomacy. i still say it was Mr Green with the wrench in the conservatory regardless of the note Ms Scarlet gave me. - : Re: Question of General Principle- Noobie Games
lol, yes i mean 'lose' not win. - : Re: Question of General Principle- Noobie Games
i dont think it matters. the ratings on this site are vague at best. someone could have a high GR and 9k diplomacy points and then enter a game costing 8900 diplomacy points and win. their GR stays similar but their ranking on this site drops heavily.
also, someone with high points on this site could have just survived every game with 5 or 6 centers and still gain points every game if its PPSC.
lastly, many players welcome the new addition to the game regardless of skill level, especially if the CDing player was the ally to another guy who is now left with no allies and a growing enemy. - : Re: Copy+Pasting Messages
the same holds true for FtF games as well. notes can be passed from one individual to another, someone else can submit move orders for another player (either true ones or false), theres a plethora of deceptions that can arise out of FtF games. the same is true online.
it doesnt ruin the spirit of diplomacy...it is diplomacy at its heart. how much do you believe the 'copy-pasted' message coming from france about italy is true? was it forged ahead of time, is it a splicing together of 2 messages from two different seasons? is it the entire conversation or just a portion taken out of context? you can also take what you said to a country and claim that it was that country saying it to you just as easily.
with all the unknowns, nothing is certain. plus if it is a lie that someone can get you to believe is true, all the more power to them. remember, everything goes in diplomacy since lies and betrayal are at its heart.
true story: in the very first game of diplomacy that i played, i was playing with some friends of mine (Jacob and his brother to be exact). we went to Gen Con Indy and played with 4 other noobs. i was italy, jacob was germany and his brother was austria. in order to woo the turkish player onto my side to attack austria while i slipped into constantinople, i told the turkish player that A and G were brothers and definitely working together. i left out the fact that i was their friend and that we traveled to Indy together. this pissed T off so bad that from that point on, he believed everything else i said and you can believe that i included snippets of false conversation and if i had anything handwritten id have used that too.
it worked like a charm and i won that game. - : Re: most awesome usernames
i like ur name too TGM. it seems unoriginal but i have yet to see someone else with the same name in any other game ive played. - : Re: Name Calling, stabing and game play
on a side note to anyone who ever plays with me, if you ever cuss me out, im still always willing to work with you. no hard feelings. - : Re: Name Calling, stabing and game play
personally, i think its a major achievement to be cussed at in this game. it means your stab was truely effective. i never name call but i think its hilarious when others call me names.
i stabbed one guy so hard that he cussed me up one side and down the other. - : Re: most awesome usernames
i vote tru ninja too. i use tru ninja or ninjaj in basically every game i play. i also refer to myself as a ninja which irritates my wife to no end.
@ draugnar: i like ur name. it reminds me of trogdor. - : Re: So...I'm not so hot at this game
plus,MM, i know how much jacob wants to play a game against you and win and see you eliminated. its pretty funny how much it boils his blood :) - : Re: So...I'm not so hot at this game
my suggestions for those that want to play better is 1) always defend. people lose when they overextend and not seal gaps in their offensive line. defense is the best offense. 2) i also agree with those that say to keep up communication, even with enemies and 3) decide on a plan of action and stick to it. too many players start something and then back out or change direction at which point theyve made an enemy in one country and then changed direction to attack elsewhere only to make a new enemy. - : Re: Why aren't people more talkative?
I'd say a good diplomacy player will communicate with as many people as possible and maintain communications with them, even if you're their 'enemy' - : Re: Why aren't people more talkative?
"drop off" should be "level out" since there isnt a decline in success rate after a player sends an enormous amount of messages per game - : Re: Why aren't people more talkative?
believe it or not, i actually did a study on the side to see if theres a correlation between average messages per game sent by a player and their success rate in games (success rate being their combined win + draw percentage) and it turns out that theres a natural log trend.
This implies that the more messages a player sends in a game, the better that player plays. The success rate appears to drop off around the 100-120 msg/game mark. - : Re: For Those That Feel Diplomacy is Unbalanced
To reply to everyone as easy as possible:
I picked these countries for the report because Austria showed that some Balkan moves were better than others while England showed that some countries have a series of moves that prove equally effective. Additionally, they were not outliers like Russia and Turkey (although they are only slight outliers). I ultimately wanted to do all 7 countries in the report, but the limit of 5-10 pages for my research paper meant that I could only cover 2 countries with very condensed material.
Airborn: I agree that I dont play the Austrian attack as russia but it is a successful move especially considering if R/T alliance is onboard, R has a better turnabout than T in the long run, hence its success rate.
TGM: I took a series of games to illustrate that and I was looking at only games with solo wins so many of the TMG series games wouldnt work. It is true that in very evenly matched games, draws come about far more often than a win but I was concerned with the outcomes of games with solo winners. I also needed random games that included both lower talent players and upper echelon players and a random sample of games would give me values that matched closer to a true mean of all games played than would only selecting games with skilled players.
playerz2: ill check it out, thnx - : Re: For Those That Feel Diplomacy is Unbalanced
anyone who wants a copy of A and E's info can email me at joshua.mcowen227@wku.edu
the report contains the statistics and their analysis, a meaning of the moves that were studied as well as a reasonable assumption to why the results were what we are seeing.
eventually I will also compile for the other 5 countries but A and E can generate inferrences that translate across the board. - : Re: For Those That Feel Diplomacy is Unbalanced
If anyone is interested in seeing the final report, i have it compiled for Austria and England as a sample to what i'm submitting for a grade. - : Re: For Those That Feel Diplomacy is Unbalanced
For everyone who feels that diplomacy is rather unbalanced, especially looking at the win percentages I posted quite a while back, then this thread is for you.
I am in a research methods class that required me to analyze a series of data and draw up conclusions. I decided for this report to study how the opening moves in diplomacy (the S01/A01 moves) affect the chances of a country winning or losing. One of the interesting things that this report also uncovered is the relative balance among the 7 nations.
I took a sample of 200 games and studied the opening moves of the different countries and compared them with the other moves (a country's moves vs the other opening moves for the same country as well as the opening moves by other countries). What I found is that the countries are rather equal when examining the successes of the opening moves that produced the best results.
I also found that in games containing players of equal skill, the win percentages balance out more showing that Austria and Italy are rather equal to the other countries especially so when only looking at the average center gain for the openings that yielded the most favorable results. There was a slight favor to Russia and Turkey to some degree but the other 5 countries were all within a few percent success rate.
Below is a rough estimation of what I found:
Country:
win pct in equally matched games
most successful opening among those studied (avg center gain range)
Austria:
win pct: 14.5%
most successful opening: Balkan Gambit: Trieste Variation (4.5-6.75) and Galicia Variation (3.8-6.5)
England:
win pct: 12%
most successful opening: both Northern (4.75-5.9) and Southern (4.5-6.3) Openings were relatively equal
France:
win pct: 14%
most successful opening: didn't have one, all were equal (around 3.8-6.2)
Germany:
win pct: 8.5%
most successful opening: Blitzkrieg: Denmark Variation likely although this couldnt be guaranteed with 95% confidence (4.0-5.8)
Italy:
win pct: 9%
most successful opening: Tyrolia Attack (4.0-6.1)
Russia:
win pct: 21%
most successful opening: Southern Defense (5.3-7.8) and Austrian Attack (4.6-8.0) were rather equal
above the rest
Turkey:
win pct: 21%
most successful opening: Russian Attack (5.5-7.9) and Russian Defense (6.3-7.9) were rather equal above the rest
The reason for the difference in win percentages has to do with the number of reasonably successful openings available to a country. Russia, Turkey and France have more openings that tend to net a fair amount of centers in any given game and thus have a rise in win percentages even though the average centers per game for any given opening is relatively equal.
The last thing that I discovered is that (a) when compared to nonstandard openings, the standard openings really well and the nonstandard ones gained very little (except with France, suprisingly). A standard opening was any opening that was used in 10% or more of games played while nonstandard ones were openings played in less than 15% of games played. (b) that if a player screwed up their S01 moves by accidentally bouncing units, failing to submit orders for all units (except in the case of Italy's Venice unit and France's Marseilles unit), the chance of coming away with a win was nearly nothing and odds of surviving dropped dramatically. - : Re: What do you always have with you?
Keys
Wallet
Phone
Anything my wife needs and is likely to forget to bring with us - : Re: Smoking Banned
some Red Lobster restaurants banned smoking anywhere on the property too. - : Re: I Found Some Starburst's In My Pants!!!
needless to say, I charged them rent - : Re: I Found Some Starburst's In My Pants!!!
a family of midgets - : Re: Learning a coding language
Ive taken both java and C++ and i can tell you that the platforms are basically identical. the others you listed arent as versitile but java and C++ are meant to be used in a large variety of forms from scanner programming, ATM machines, x-rays, computers, etc and the coding allows them to be easily transferred from one system to another with very little work done in changing things.
its a lot of work understanding things but if you learn one language then its very easy to learn another since the concepts are identical and all you have to do is learn the command words. - : Re: The Corner for People Who Do Useful Things With Their Time
i suppose youll have to actually define useful. if someone spends 90% of their time sleeping, then posting a lengthy response on this site can be construed as both constructive and useful by comparison... - : Re: New to this site, how do you find cheats?
additionally, if youre curious, do what i did before joining larger scale games: look at each player's profile and see if that player plays a majority of games with someone else. if so, it can be suspicious and you have the right to not join a game or even use this in game as a point of discussion with the other players. remember that anything goes and if players A and B play in a lot of games together, feel free to talk to player C and form an alliance. if the alliance is formed after the game begins and not talked about beforehand then its entirely ethical and legal within the bounds of the game.
player profiles reveal a lot of information if you take the time to examine things. - : Re: Ghost-rated challenge!
id like to join but the problem is the 1 day phases. my internet connection is sketchy at home and all my submissions are while im on campus. is there any way you can change the phase length to a day and a half or 2 days? - : Re: DID I MISS SOMETHING
You "can" say that too often, or you DO say that too often? - : Re: Drinking Age....
Im sure the drinking age has a lot to do with drinking and driving. you do, afterall get a discount to your auto insurance when you turn 21 that you dont have at 18. additionally, the frontal lobe of the brain that controls and regulates emotion begins to stabilize at 21 as well. alcohol is a far cry different than cigs. cigarettes you inhale and it may give you a mild buzzy feeling whereas alcohol can cause all sorts of physical impairments after even one drink and can be lethal when not checked properly. smoking doesnt impair judgement. drinking does and its obvious upon even minor research that the mind of an 18 year old vs a 21 year old is drastically different when it comes to sound decision making.
where that may not be true for all individuals, its certainly true for the majority so simply saying "im 18 and im better than all the 21 year olds i know at making reasonable decisions" has no weight to it. you simply may be an outlier if thats true or that youre comparing yourself to a group of poor examples of 21 year olds. - : Re: When to draw...
if you cant win, then take a draw. especially in WTA. - : Re: Stats
if you check my threads, youll see stats both as a whole and for each individual country - : Re: The NFL Franchises- Who Ranks Where In All-Time Prestige?
personally, though, i think the worst team is the browns. this is a team with no super bowl appearances, a very limited number of playoff showings and the team actually ceased to exist for a short period of time in the NFL! the only time the team has been strong was before the 66 season when they had probably the best team in the league and earlier with automatic otto and the other big name players that are now NFL legends. - : Re: The NFL Franchises- Who Ranks Where In All-Time Prestige?
id say that its a little difficult to rank all 32 teams since only half of them have been around since the AFL merger with the NFL and only 16 teams have been around for 50 years, but i would have to say that the teams that have the strongest case are those that have the most showings at a super bowl are the strongest teams (steelers, cowboys, 49ers and broncos are among the top) and other teams with no appearances are at the bottom (lions, browns, jaguars, saints, texans) - : Re: Acosmist's Common Knowledge Thread
'common knowledge' is a bit of a misnomer. it is supposed to be something that most people know. the problem with that is that most people dont know any single piece of information. it all depends on who youre asking. using acosmist's examples:
prime numbers is common knowledge as long as you've had enough math taught to you that you understand it (ie are past a certain grade level) and also requires that people retain that bit of knowledge.
the invasion of poland requires that people have certain knowledges about social studies and history and again, requires that people were taught it and retain that information as well as share that view point.
english not being the primary language of every person in the world is only common knowledge if you have been exposed to others that do not speak it thus ruling out small children, which is a large portion of the population. therefore, that is not common knowledge.
additionally, those with learning deficiencies and mental retardations would have to be excluded. a lot of things people consider 'common knowledge' requires that a person have all 5 senses in proper working order as well. thus, if we eliminate all of the people that wouldnt have certain bits of information, we wouuld have ruled out a majority of the population making common knowledge the minority.
ultimately, common knowlege doesnt really exist since it assumes information all people should know and theres no single piece of information that is common enough to be considered common. - : Re: These religon threads got me thinking
btw, i agree with you on that last note hibiskiss - : Re: These religon threads got me thinking
Denis, im sorry that you are feeling the way you are about God. ultimately, you have to ask yourself why you believe what you believe. i was in a similar boat as yourself years ago (16-21) and i had to wrestle with those very facts. i had to ask myself a lot of questions and some of them no one else could answer.
there are a lot of factors that led me to becoming a christian but one of the big ones was this: the apostles (matthew, john, peter, etc) preached that they 1) watched Christ die on a cross. 2) went to his tomb after the stone was opened and no body was inside and 3) saw the resurrected Christ on many occasions both as a group of 11 and in smaller clusters (pairs, trios, etc) over the course of the next 40 days.
the question i asked myself was this: if that was a total lie, why would they be willing to die for something they *knew* was a lie. recall that after Christ's death, they returned to their old jobs again until after seeing him alive. in the end, they wouldnt. they had to have seen Christ alive. the next part came in the fact that Jesus told them he was going to die and be resurrected and if that was true, how much else is true that Jesus said? Was he indeed the Son of God as he claimed? had he seen God? was he on God's personal mission to save humanity?
if even a portion of the above is true, then a virgin birth is by no means something to wrestle with. the bottom line is that while i was asking myself these questions, i had to actually pray. my advice is that you also pray but dont be afraid to tell your parents either. if it was my son telling me that, i would be deeply saddened, yes, but i would also begin praying as well.
the bible says that God's word does not return void. God says in His word that if you seek Him, He will be found. not everyone will accept Christ and the truth of the bible but if you continue to search things openly and honestly, youll get answers. the next step is how to appropriate those answers for yourself. many people want to disbelieve in God so much that even when God shows Himself, they refuse to believe. - : Re: So Moses, Jesus, Muhammad, and Richard Dawkins Walk Into A Bar...
i dont know what to even say to this thread. it has to be the saddest one ive ever seen on this site. even before i became a christian, i would have been extremely hesitant to include jesus in any kind of joke.
the fool says in his hear there is no God and i firmly believe that anyone that has to spend thier whole life trying to disprove the existence of God is clearly trying to justify the idea for themself since they dont want to believe in God. After you choose to acknowledge God, you have to begin asking "who is He and what does He want" and people who refuse to acknowledge God i believe simply want to ignore the element of sin in their life. - : Re: What if...
some of the questions i would have is whether or not the "server" of this idea has access to all your personal files (im guessing so). additionally, if theres no way to contact information (address, phone number, etc) then its definitely a scam. - : Re: The perfect diplomat
im actually envious of those that have spouses/children and/or enough friends + time to get a ftf game together.
heck, id give my right arm if i could get my wife to enjoy a) american football b) strategy war games (especially this one) c) guy-flicks - : Re: Its December already? BUG!
all of the games in the 'finished games' archive simply list a time. - : Re: I hate this site
i played for the first time at gen con (gaming convention here in the US) a little over a year ago. i played as italy and won by an 's' when austria failed to support a german move into my center. after that, we were super hooked and started our own site which never got off the ground and i came here.
im a huge game fan so im hooked for life (something my wife hates) - : Re: So who wants to play with denis?
i have yet to have played with you. i do see, however, that youre in TMG series games so ill see ya soon. - : Re: Least like to play poll
@droct:
ah, much appreciated. makes a little more sense now! - : Re: Least like to play poll
keep in mind that the CD's may represent a country cding late in the game when they have 1 unit and not right off the bat. thats probably where a majority of the cds come from so the numbers above are misleading. - : Re: Pronunciation of Usernames
people always mispronounce mine. they usually say it as a series of gurlgling and gasping noises. people have told me that its easier to pronounce if the throat isnt cut first but i have yet to test that theory.
@ the big doak--ive been pronouncing your name the (b-eye-g) doak. i will move to a short 'e' sound. i apologize. - : Re: Confessions - Have you ever lied on the first turn?
whoever stated the rule that you should never lie on the first turn is a liar. you should rarely lie on any turn. - : Re: Least like to play poll
im sick and tired of playing italy. its someone else's turn now. - : Re: Result of a move
i also use realpolitik in tricky situations. it takes a little getting used to but after you figure it out, it can be an instrumental tool. - : Re: Help with this moves
@paulsalomon: you can also download realpolitik which is another moves adjucator but its much easier to read since armies are clearly armies, fleets are clearly fleets and white russian ships dont sit on white russian land/sea zones (although they still are white) - : Re: Help with this moves
I agree with orathic, theres no way you can take both centers and keep the north sea. if you lose the north sea then youre sunk.
i think your best bet is to try to talk france into giving you belgium since hes gaining potentially 2 centers this season. if you take one of his, then youll get a much needed build.
if you dont get a build then theres no way you can move in on russia until france gets there to help.
mutual support hold is where two units support each other's hold. in this case:
sweden supports the hold at norway
norway supports the hold at sweden. - : Re: error
im actually still getting the same problem that cecil lizard is getting:
Fatal error: Class 'Game' not found in /home/.mio/webdiplomacy/webdiplomacy.net/board/orders/orderinterface.php on line 126 - : Re: Thank Goodness!
there are 4 + a guest many times. but if you count loud-mouth rosie you have 6 and then i think there was someone else before rosie.
i wish i got paid to be obnoxious. i have to do it for free right now. - : Re: Please delete my account
yes. are you saying that hes a girl that isnt pretty? - : Re: Thank Goodness!
additionally, her mouth will still pervade tv, it just wont be via the oprah show.
i have the feeling that we're headded to another topic of public conversation that will last a year like the michael jackson death. boring stories of his life are still coming out on tv and im sure theyll continue to do so until the 1-year anniversary of the incident at which point theyll be born anew.
after oprah's gone, i hope 'the view' is next. - : Re: Please delete my account
at least he seems like he has a great personality and isnt a total prick to talk to in diplomacy... - : Re: Strange Italy/Austria
maybe, maybe not. neither of them have any in-game messages and are in 0 other games so the potential is there. anytime you suspect something like this, email a mod instead of posting it in the forum and if you have to post in the forum, simply ask for mod attention without specifying a game in the title where everyone can see. - : Re: Strange Italy/Austria
i dont see meta-gaming at all. what i see is an austria that convinced italy to fight france while he fights turkey/russia and instead went for the stab. italy, after being caught with his pants down, attempts to grab a french center in order to preserve the number of units he has on the board and when that fails, he cd's. - : Re: What percentage of games have a winner?
the % of games ending in a draw is approximately 31.7%. games ending in a solo are 68.3% take the 68.3% and multiply by (1/7) and youll have what youre looking for. the percentages are what i tallied over the course of 1001 games on this site. - : Re: Reply to the forum
so...hows that uranium coming? - : Re: Reply to the forum
we demand highly enriched uranium for our...factories - : Re: School of War - Admissions Building,Winter Session 2009
id like to participate in any fashion be it player, mentor, commentator, etc. - : Re: Reply to the forum
i volunteer to be captain of your lynch mob - : Re: What percentage of games have a winner?
@ JECE as i stated in the tail end of my post, you have to draw the line somewhere on who to tally and who not to tally. if you tally every player ever, then you can likely simply take the 60.8% and multiply by 1/7. if you wanted to tally every player who plays at least 10 games, then its likely higher as i listed above.
i also had the same problems with opening the database and i didnt know jack about SQL to do anything there. - : Re: reply to "reply to 'posting in the forum' "
more than likely. eventually id be the one lynched. - : Re: Dog-gone Funny Tails
i had a cairn terrier and the best story i have about that dog is that he crapped and pissed all over the ground enough times when our new son showed up that i got rid of him. thats not to say that i hate dogs...i just hated THAT dog. - : Re: What percentage of games have a winner?
additionally, i think that in order to find the mean win pct, youll have to take an average of the win pct's of a variety of players when playing the 7 given countries. each country has their own pct's of soloing so soloing with russia is far easier than soloing with austria or italy.
the average win pct is likely closer to about 15-20% for the avg player without taking different countries into account. additionslly, to find this value, youll have to determine a baseline. do you take any player even those that play 1 or 2 games and then quit or do you make a minimum requirement of finished games before you take their stats into account? - : Re: What percentage of games have a winner?
i believe this is what youre looking for orathaic:
http://webdiplomacy.net/webDiplomacy.net-SQLdata.zip - : Re: What percentage of games have a winner?
31.7% of games end in a draw while 68.3% of games end in a solo win. i posted a thread on the subject a while back. - : Re: Looking For a New Monitor
a cardboard box, aluminum foil and some silly putty. mcgyver it. - : Re: Rename "Unit-placing" "Builds"
i think its fine to go with "builds". disbands can still be viewed in the same category, i agree that its a pain in the neck to have all the info spill over onto another line or jumble together the way it does.
plus, coming from a mathematician's viewpoint, a disband is simply a build in the negative direction much the same way that a car breaking is accelerating in a negative direction and a -1 is simply a - (+1) - : Re: Pet peeves.
@iceray clearly you havent paid attention to children lately. children do try to run into the road. not because theyre retarded but because theyre kids. they dont have the ability to think ahead about cause/effect and consequences. - : Re: Pet peeves.
if you have a child that has that tendency and you have the open hand to hold a leash...wouldnt it be just as easy to hold the child's hand instead? - : Re: Whew, my 30th game done....
congrats on the milestone! i just hit 20 games and it has taken me forever. - : Re: Once upon a time...
rofl nice! - : Re: Once upon a time...
lol! thats funny. id love to tell my buddy and see if he remembers - : Re: Russian Statistics
very likely. feel free to dig that up! i didnt because it requires me to open the games and move frame by frame until said country is eliminated which can be from 1902 until games end. - : Re: Turkish Statistics
very well could be. the only problem is that germany needs austria to survive a few years so G can gain a foothold. turkey hits A fast and hard but if turkey could be talked into waiting a few years, then the alliance is very strong. probably more reliable than A/G. - : Re: Russian Statistics
no. im sure austria would blow everyone away though. - : Re: Once upon a time...
when i was in my early 20's i used to work at a diner with a group of ny friends. we used to do stupid junk all the time, especially for birthdays. one such birthday was for my friend mike. several of us chipped in and bought him a live lobster, aquarium, and setup so he could have a pet lobster. we then brought it to work when mike was there.
needless to say, he thought having a pet lobster was strange so he decided that since he had never eaten lobster before, he would boil his new pet. so we got a pot from the kitchen of the restaurant, filled it with water and set it on the stove to bring to a boil. now we'd heard that lobsters scream when theyre placed in boiling water and none of us had balls big enough to put a screaming lobster into the pot. eventually one of us got brave enough and tossed it in....it sank pathetically to the bottom and died a quick silent death.
after it was cooked, he took the left claw, broke it off and tried the meat. he wasnt impressed and left the rest alone. after work we took the boiled lobster and put it in his fridge where it sat for at least a month. one day, after work, mike and i got a great idea. why not go to the store and dress it up in baby clothes and leave it on someones doorstep like an abandoned child. we got a complete newborn outfit and cheap stroller and got clothes on it and drove it out to another friends house with a group of about 5 of us around 11 pm. we set the baby on his porch, knocked and ran out into the yard to hide and see what he did. he came to the door and laughed his butt off. unfortunately,he was one of the guys that went in on the lobster with us and knew who set it there. i also had a hard time holding in a laugh and he knew we were in the yard so he came out to look for us. he chased us for a block before we stopped and decided to go throughout his neighborhood leaving it on random doorsteps to see peoples reactions.
we included an abandon note saying something like "please take care of my baby joey. he's sick and needs his medicine for his bad hand. please give him a good home." after leaving it on 3 porches and getting hilarious reactions, we decided to go out to another friends house, open the porch and leave the dead lobster inside (mind you this is around 2 am at this point)
apparently, when the family woke up (he still lived at home) and went to the foyer, they were met with said lobster. my buddy's sister thought it was so cute, they kept it for at least a month never knowing who put it there (remember it had already been dead over a month) and i have no idea why the mother allowed it to remain there for so long.
to this day, i still dont think he knows how it got there. - : Re: Turkish Statistics
When Turkey draws, who else draws?
England: 66%
France: 62%
Italy: 55%
Germany: 48%
Russia: 34%
Austria: 27%
When Turkey is eliminated, who solos?
Russia: 32%
Austria: 29%
Italy: 18%
France: 10%
England: 7%
Germany: 4%
When Turkey solos, who's eliminated?
Austria: 88%
Italy: 58%
Russia: 56%
Germany: 37%
France: 31%
England: 25%
Best Ally: England
Greatest Adversary: Austria
Average Year of Victory: 1909
Turkey demonstrated the idea of two different spheres of influence in this game when examining turkish solos and eliminations. A/R and even I all fell higher in each category while falling lower in co-drawing games than all countries in the west. clearly turkey's defensible position tucked far in the corner prevents a lot of western influence from negatively affecting the turks. conversely, turkey clearly had the most to gain in the heightened western struggle as seen in previous statistics which explains why turkey came in second in overall win count and solo count and third in drawn games. turkey also had the second fastest time to a solo victory by less than a quarter of a year (actual number was 1909.88 with germany coming third at 1910.02).
austria has the most to fear from turkey (as well as from russia and germany) seeing the highest elimination percentage when facing off against turkey. austrias suprising elimination rate was 30% higher than any other country in the game and more than doubled any country from the west (even tripling england's 25% elimination rate). with italy coming in second, it seems to reason that, when just examining the turkish statistics, italy should be a better proponent of austria. unfortunately for A, italy also had its best path to victory going through ole red as well indicating that austria is everyone's door to success.
conversely, austria had the most to gain from a turkish defeat. in overall numbers, austria's 29% solo calculation was second to russia's 32% but when examining them against normal solos as a general number, austria's solo percent went from 9.9% (out of all solo wins) to 29% (a 20% gain) whereas russia went from 29.3% (out of all solo wins) to its 32% position (a 3% gain) thus showing that austria indeed gained the most.
england seemed to be the best turkish resource since the two can rely on each other without worry of reprisal. england helps put pressure on turkey's neighbors especially russia helping turkey gain an upper hand in the east. england also saw the second-least amount of eliminations in turkish solos with germany coming suprisingly in last, although when considering that when turkey is winning, russia is losing, clearly germany would be the biggest benefactor from not having a purple beast at its back while it tries to gain a foothold. - : Re: Russian Statistics
Russian Statistics:
When Russia draws, who else draws?
France:57%
England: 54%
Italy: 52%
Turkey: 49%
Germany: 45%
Austria: 27%
When Russia is eliminated, who solos?
Turkey: 33%
Austria: 19%
England: 18%
Germany:15%
France: 11%
Italy: 4%
When Russia solos, who's eliminated?
Austria: 70%
Germany:52%
Turkey: 44%
Italy: 35%
England: 34%
France: 19%
Best Ally: France
Greatest Adversary: Austria
Average Year of Victory: 1908
When i originally started russian statistics, i suspected that i would diffuse some of the juggernaut fear that tends to occur when people are facing a new game and not playing russia or turkey (especially when playing italy, austria and germany!). what i found was that it only confirmed it. although turkey wasnt at the top of the list when looking at draw partners for russia, it was by no means at the bottom. what i did find that affirmed the deadly potential for the juggernaut, however, was what wasnt shown in the statistics above. 2-way draws are extremely rare but out of the 100 draws used for the stats above, 4 of them were formed via juggernaut! additionally, several of the russian wins contained a second-place turkey (juggernaut + stab). neighboring countries do indeed have something to fear from a R/T alliance after all. i expected to see turkey a little higher on the elimination bar when russia solos but clearly the two of them are typically better intertwined.
another powerful note (this one seen in the stats above) is the speed of the russian win. russia wins solo games an average of 2 full years faster than almost any other country (except turkey). russia clocked in at a 1908.06 year average while turkey followed with 1909.88 and germany at 1910.02. the extra russian unit clearly displays an advantage coupled with russias position stradling the largest stalemate line in the game.
austria and germany suffer the most from the russian beast and so early advice for the two of them is to prevent an early russian explosion. austria is by far the weakest defensible country in the east which explains german shortcommings when russia does well.
russia also appeared to be the friendliest country on the board seeing a rather straight line for drawing with other countries. barring austria, there was only a 12% difference between the co-drawing leader and co-drawing trailer (france at 57% and germany at 45%). many games with russia ended in a 6-way draw with austria as the odd man out. - : Re: Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
my bro-in-law has it. i havent gotten to play it yet but he says its killer.
lemme know if you want to start any diplomacy games that you intend to NMR frequently in. - : Re: Italian Statistics
im not trying to say that 2-ways have any real strength, because they dont. im simply stating that the number of turkish eliminations coupled with the number of turkish draws and the number of turkish solos all lead to tentative alliances between I/T. this makes a little sense since there isnt a real stalemate area forcing them to be friends except in the event that the two of them are working to prevent a third country from soloing.
i hope this makes a little more sense. i wasnt really attempting to draw any real further conclusions based on 2-way draws other than if you were to look ONLY at 2-way draws, this wouldnt really score high on the list. - : Re: Italian Statistics
i agree that they can make really great allies, the problem comes to later in the game. out of the common 2-way draws, this was seen near the bottom of the list and likely leads to a turkish solo. keep in mind that the draw count only tabulates when turkey didnt take the stab. clearly there is a war there and that mistrust is at least equally as high as it is for the A/G alliance and even more high than the R/T
the best means for them to ally is when there is another dominating power. if not, then there will typically be war between them. - : Re: Italian Statistics
lol, no prob TGM. youre probably right. next time ill type it in another document so that i just have to copy paste. - : Re: Italian Statistics
that should read "the fifth installment"
i did not use the following game types:
games that ended before 1904
7-way draws
games with clear indications of multi-accounting
games in which 3 or more players resigned:
When Italy draws, who else draws?
England: 63%
Turkey: 57%
France: 47%
Germany: 46%
Russia: 44%
Austria: 30%
When Italy is eliminated, who solos?
Turkey: 40%
Austria: 17%
Russia: 17%
England: 11%
France: 11%
Germany: 4%
When Italy solos, who's eliminated?
Austria: 80%
Turkey: 57%
Germany: 38%
France: 37%
England: 31%
Russia: 31%
Best Ally: Germany, England
Greatest Adversary: Austria, Turkey
Average Year of Victory: 1910
First, to comment on what i saw in the statistics above: clearly italian victory must go through austria (80% austrian elimination and thats not including any austrian survivals with less than 3 centers remaining!). additionally, austria gained the second most out of italian elimination and this spread was even more when you include the fact that austria had the second-to-least amount of solos in general!
concerning turkey, turkey is also a clear threat and must also be dealt with. the T/I alliance is always a tentative one and clearly one of the least stable alliances in the game. to my recollection, i think there may have been 1 T/I 2-way draw out of the 100 i looked.
another thing to examine is that there are 2 major triangles in the game. the western (E/F/G) and the eastern (R/A/T) and the question is typically: "Where does Italy stand?"
based on what we observed here, italy has much more to gain by influencing the eastern circle and leaving the west to its own. the whole of the western solos when italy is defeated is only 1/3 that of the eastern circle and less than turkey's tally of solos alone! this makes sense since italy lacks the ability to directly affect most of the west but can directly affect 2/3 of the eastern countries.
the most shocking thing is the huge drop in german solos when italy is eliminated! again, this makes sense since most of the power affecting italian defeat comes from the east and 2 of those 3 powers (russia and austria) are also likely to affect germany later on in the game. thus, germany has much to gain in seeing italy on the board and more to gain when italy is focused on turkey initially. - : Re: Favourite Country
i cant say that i really have a favorite country. i know im tired of playing as italy, france and russia tho. theyre fun countries but i still have yet to play as england or turkey. - : Re: German Statistics
when germany draws, england participates in the draw almost 60% of the time.
and yes, im going to formalize everything and submit it to TGM with a formal analysis. i will also take time to look at when a country is eliminated, what the major factors are or at least some of the key things that contribute to the elimination (ie: france or england losing the channel to the other). - : Re: German Statistics
above...it takes a while to type all of that and it wont fit in the opening post - : Re: German Statistics
did not use the following game types:
games that ended before 1904
7-way draws
games with clear indications of multi-accounting
games in which 3 or more players resigned:
When Germany draws, who else draws?
England: 59%
Turkey: 59%
Italy: 50%
France: 46%
Russia: 40%
Austria: 39%
When Germany's eliminated, who solos?
Russia: 28%
France: 21%
Turkey: 18%
England: 14%
Austria: 11%
Italy: 8%
When Germany solos, who's eliminated?
Russia: 69%
England: 55%
Austria: 54%
France: 49%
Italy: 34%
Turkey: 26%
Best Ally: Italy
Greatest Adversary: Russia
Average year of victory: 1910
Although the common view is that A/G make a great pair, I didnt see this in the numbers. Seeing that Germany is eliminated in over 50% of all Austrian solos and the same holds true for Austria in German solos leads one to believe that the alliance is a great one only for the first few years. After one country (Russia for example) is eliminated relieving pressure off of G/A and the other gets a strong hold, clearly the case is that theres a stab soon in the mix. Additionally, of the first 100 draws seen, only 1 ended in a 2-way draw between the two countries. It was far more common to see the Juggernaut of R/T and even that is a stretch.
It seemed to me that Italy was a far more valuable tool after the first few years. Italy can continue to put pressure on Austria without really allowing G or I to directly influence the other. That, coupled with the fact that Italy participated in 50% of all German draws and that italy had one of the lowest elimination rates in German solos and the lowest solo rate in German elim's illustrates their ability to work together.
Turkey was still shown as a huge benefactor of the conflict in the western triangle (E/F/G).
Another thing that wasn't directly illustrated with the way i showed the statistics is that Germany had the fastest speed to 18 centers than any country examined thus far (the actual number for mean value of year of victory was 1910.02). This is faster even more so than france who clocked in at 10.12 years till victory.
Russia was the clear standout as Germany's primary enemy. Only Austria participated in less draws and Russia solos more often than any other country when Germany is eliminated and Russian grounds were a clear path to Germany victory where R was eliminated in nearly 70% of all G solos.
In terms of the western triangle, france is still the greatest threat but clearly if adequate borderlines are set, then the two of them can move separate ways and end the game in a draw--especially in light of the G/A conflict that develops in later years. - : Re: French Statistics
its a possibility. thus far, i have yet to successfully get anything that will actually read the .sql file. the mySql that i downloaded isnt doing anything. - : Re: I find it unfair and cheap that...
youd be suprised what people will deal with when youre faced with either a) a ninja or b) someone that will get angrier than a hornets nest over it. - : Re: I find it unfair and cheap that...
some say its unfair that im cheap - : Re: French Statistics
ill try it, thnx - : Re: French Statistics
after its all said and done, im going to submit a final of what i saw to TGM and he offered to post it on his site. Until that time, id like to minimize work so that i dont do everything twice or more. i dont mind answering questions though.
btw, to kestas: i still havent been able to actually view the database. its too large to open in notepad and i certainly dont have the time (or ability) to create a java program that will read it. what do you (or anyone else) suggest? - : Re: French Statistics
as i stated, you can gain that by looking at the two sets of statistics. what we saw from france's elimination is that the major changes to country soloing came with england soloing +10%+/-, turkey +9% +/- and russia soloing -6% +/-. out of the western circle, germany struggled at a -2% gain +/- so clearly england benefits far more than germany - : Re: Gunboat Question
if a player is skilled in playing gunboat, they will use the assets set before them. the fact that youre actually coming to the forum to ask that a player check them might even get people angry. - : Re: Gunboat Question
not in a gunboat - : Re: French Statistics
heres the data you were looking for dave:
% of solo wins out of all total games / out of all solo wins
Russia: 13.9% / 20.3%
Turkey: 12.4% / 18.1%
France: 10.7% / 15.6%
Germany/England: 9.8% / 14.3 %
Austria: 6.8% / 9.8%
Italy: 5.0% / 7.3%
the thing youll have to realize is that when you look at stats on when one country is eliminated, everyone elses stats will by nature go up so any increase will have to take that into account. (its like looking at stats for 6 player games instead of 7 since solo wins can have only 6 different outcomes)
% of solo wins out of all total games / out of all solo wins
Russia: 13.9% / 20.3%
Turkey: 12.4% / 18.1%
France: 10.7% / 15.6%
Germany/England: 9.8% / 14.3 %
Austria: 6.8% / 9.8%
Italy: 5.0% / 7.3% - : Re: French Statistics
i have previously posted the stats on normal win pct's on a previous post. just check my forum postings from my profile. - : Re: French Statistics
ill take a look and e-mail everything in a better format with more concise info at the finale TGM. after i have all the numbers together ill include a more formal analysis (albeit nonprofessional).
btw kestas, i dont have a program capable of reading your sql data file. is there something online i can download free to read it? - : Re: French Statistics
did not use the following game types:
games that ended before 1904
7-way draws
games with clear indications of multi-accounting
games in which 3 or more players resigned:
When France draws, who else draws?
England: 65%
Turkey 64%
Italy 46%
Russia: 43%
Germany: 42%
Austria: 29%
When France is eliminated, who solos?
Turkey: 27%
England: 24%
Austria: 14%
Russia: 14%
Germany: 12%
Italy: 9%
When France solos, who's eliminated?
England: 73%
Germany: 66%
Austria: 64%
Italy: 39%
Russia: 36%
Turkey: 24%
Best Ally: Turkey, England
Greatest Adversary: England
Average Year of Victory: 1910
nothing much really jumped out at me that i hadnt already seen when looking at england. once again, germany doesnt seem to be the biggest threat to the western circle and the primary battle appears to usually be between france and england. germany is typically the temporary hinge that swings the tide in one direction since when coupled with the low german win percentage seen in my first statistical post leaves germany in a losing situation if the german doesnt have a backup plan.
it was interesting to see that england was the most formidable player for and against france and also to see yet again that turkish gains are only bolstered by a longer conflict in the west. russia took the biggest hit in win percentages when france is eliminated dropping to only 14% while the other countries climbed.
if i were to have viewed each draw and organized them into piles based on who drew with france, the leader was a 3-way with E/T. also, like england, if france was eliminated, it was far more common to see the game end in a draw instead of a solo victory.
FAQ:
"This is great stuff Tru Ninja. Are you going to do this for the other countries too?"
Yes. This will be compiled in alphabetic order, so Germany is next on my list (which ive already started). after ive done all 7 countries, i will continue to look up a variety of things that strike my fancy, chief among them is whether the amount of in-game messaging a player has affects his/her overall win/draw percentage. - : Re: Why do some people have NO manners???
@spyman youre in the same room. its pretty common for universities to mandate that lower classmen stay on campus in the dorms to get the full feel for campus life. - : Re: Takin' it outside ;-)
its been in christian news lately. heres one such site:
http://www.arkdiscovery.com/noah's_ark.htm - : Re: Maybe some of our resident Diplomacy experts can explain...
the FTF game i played contained fat rectangular army blocks and skinny rectangular fleet blocks (i think thats how the original format was too). i also have the cannons/ships board game version. - : Re: Why do some people have NO manners???
lol. i have an interesting story for ya concerning how...gross people can be:
i have a friend who was kicked out of his house when he was 17 and began staying with random friends and anyone who would give him room and board for any extended period. most of the people he stayed with lived in the ghetto and were the non-cleaning type. eventually he went to live with other friends of ours in an apartment.
anytime you stopped in, there were always 4-10 random people there (even if none of them were on the lease). needless to say, the upkeep was rather shallow. there was no bathroom door and toilet paper was a luxury rarely purchased. the bathroom situation got so bad, my buddy began finding articles of his clothing that were used (socks, towels, etc) to clean up the occasional #2.
nasty? bizairre? gross? yes. the strangest part is that when he moved into a new place with new people, the problem followed.
we never did find out who was doing it. - : Re: 5-Minute Live game
missed it by a minute. or maybe an hour and a minute. not sure which. - : Re: Takin' it outside ;-)
hi crazy anglican. just thought id share my two cents since ive spent years and years of personal study into the issue, heard from nearly every argument known to man and the fact that ive been up most nights taking care of my newborn...gotta do something with those sleepless nights : ) - : Re: Takin' it outside ;-)
@obiwan
you clearly have not really studied what youre really saying in the above. i have done extensive self-study into the issue. there have been over 50,000 copies of the new testament alone found either in part or entirety. this number has continued to survive against all odds. shortly after the death of christ and for hundreds of years following, anyone even thought to be a christian was killed and any manuscripts found were destroyed on finding. the bible says that God's word will never pass away. the great thing is that out of 50k+ copies, the differences were extremely minute. bear in mind that the translations are more recent. the copies were primarily made in the same language and so translation doesnt become an issue until centuries later and even after heavy scrutiny, they still hold far more water to the "originals" than even homer's Illiad and any other work from around its same time that was NOT under such attack.
secondly, science and archaeology has continued to unearth and discover additional findings that continue to prove the Bible at its word. for example, the pool of siloam had 6 fountains. this pool was said to be a myth created by john and never really existed. within the last 40 years, this very pool has been discovered and appears exactly as it was described. cities that have long been lost are also being discovered. nearly every city in the Bible to date has been unearthed. EVEN NOAH's ARK in exact proportion resting in present day turkey according to the Bible's description of its resting place. satelite imaging has produced evidence of metals within the ark that fit the description of animal cages and the 3-layers described in the Bible.
youre right that if this were a normal document, that there would be plenty of falsifications, and yet, it is miraculously better preserved than any other work in the history of mankind.
to another point, yes, the Bible is a selective work. it does not tell the whole story and was never meant to. the Bible was written for the sole purpose to bring men to God through the blood of Jesus Christ. it was never meant for a scientific work and yet it still stands strong against the scientific world because of its unerring truth. the bible says at the end of the book of john that if everything jesus ever did were written down, the works of it would fill the world according to john (being a little exaggerated but to the point).
finally, concerning the truth of the old testament and its preservation, the OT was considered to have many differences compared to its assumed original. thats what made the dead sea scrolls such a major find. it was 1000 years older than any other copy of the OT ever found to date. within it (along with other works) was a copy or fragment of every book of the OT except 1 and what they found when they compared it to copies found around 1000 A.D. was astounding. they found that it was nearly 100% word-for-word! thats 1000 years of existance and hardly any change whatsoever. the changes that were made were so small, its not even worth calling an error because it neither changed the meaning of the text, one maybe two words were slightly different (in english similar to using the word beautiful for pretty...hardly a corruption), etc.
the reasons for this are simple 1) this work is, was and always will be held in such high regard that people dare not make one small error in its copying because it comes from the mouth of God. something that is viewed as that precious earns far more care. and 2) the work of God was behind it to preserve it.
the one area that i actually agree with you is that the Bible is corruptible, but only by corruptible men. this is what martin luther encountered during the reformation when man's law superceeded God's law. the same was true during the time of Christ when the word of God was substituted for with man's tradition. the words themselves never changed but how it was taught did. what is even more amazing is that even through all the satanic efforts, the word remains pure.
additionally, try reading the Bible. the jews are not villans in this Book. you should recall (if youve read it) that the first converts to chrisitianity were jewish. peter, john and the disciples were jews. jesus was a jew, the first areas of preaching was in jerusalem and judea where thousands converted to chrisitianity. it wasnt until after the first major persecution that the jews fled to gentile lands and spread the word there that gentiles began being converted. recall that peter suffered stiff opposition from the jewish believers when he took the word to the gentiles. the same non-villification of the romans is found as well. the NT in no way shows any group of men as villians over others, it simply tells the truth of how things were. what it does show, however, is that ALL men are enemies of God, jew and gentile alike and that the only way to God is through Jesus Christ. - : Re: Bimodal Statistical Analysis
i can look up some calculation if you give me an hour or so. ill submit a formula to you and youd simply have to find the variables to plug in. - : Re: English Statistics
@ don: i think that this will pan out after i have seen turkish results calculated in the same fashion
@ thuc yes im working on it for all 7 nations, france is in the works and if ill jot down the name and look for it if i ever have time to read (new baby and all)
@strat and TGM id love for these to be put someplace public with easy access. i can email you ghosty on all the finds as i post them if youd like. - : Re: I'll try my best no to NMR...
congrats JP! lots of new and recurring parents lately. - : Re: Heligoland Bight
it is confusing. the edge of the zone along the baltic is considered to be only denmark. sorta sucks so dont keep a fleet there too long. - : Re: English Statistics
i did not use the following game types:
games that ended before 1904
7-way draws
games with clear indications of multi-accounting
games in which 3 or more players resigned:
When England draws, who else draws?
Turkey 57%
Italy 50%
France 48%
Germany 45%
Russia 38%
Austria 32%
When England is eliminated, who solos?
France 33%
Turkey 21%
Germany 17%
Russia 15%
Italy 8%
Austria 6%
When England solos, who's eliminated?
Germany 74% (wow!)
France 62%
Russia 62%
Austria 46%
Italy 38%
Turkey 21%
Average year of English victory: 1911
Best Ally: none, potentially Italy
Greatest Adversary: France
a few things i gathered from this is that again, we see that austria's success is linked to english success but the converse is not necessarily true. turkey had some suprising statistics in that if england did well, turkey also did well but if england did poorly, turkey did not necessarily do poor. it seems to me that turkey's key bet is to keep england alive long enough to allow turkey to get a solid foothold. after that, turkey will thrive.
additionally, something i noticed not seen in these statistics is that when england was defeated, it was far more often to end in a draw among other countries than it was for the game to end in a solo.
the assumption based on the rather even drawing percentages is that england can draw with just about anyone with turkey turning out slightly higher. - : Re: Heligoland Bight
no. to get from one to the other, you must go through denmark or sweden. - : Re: Game strategies for newbies
yes, the place i learned the names of the different opening styles is from Richard Sharp's book The Game of Diplomacy (you can google it and the entire book is available online to read for free). it also discusses the location of major stalemate lines and some common strategies for each country. - : Re: So dick.
thats how change occurs. i got fired from a job for being tardy and now im never late. crazy how that works. - : Re: Just stopped in to say "Hi!"
talking to yourself i see.. - : Re: Daylight savings time
i think DST is a crock of crap. i understand why the US did it during the war, but the war is long over, and now we do it simply for routine's sake. not all states participate anyhow and we might as well simply get rid of it. thats my thoughts in a nutshell. - : Re: Austrian Statistics
@chrisp i could write a program in java but i wouldnt even begin to have the time.
@pyro i just use the finished games section of this site and select the first 100 normal games. yes, a larger sample size is always better but since i dont have the time to study the population, i must simply leave it at a sample of the population. i could do it over 200 but ultimately, i dont think that the stats would vary by much. there may be a few percentage points changed here or there but the outcomes would be similar and we would come to the same conclusions.
@beza outside the finished games database, i dont know what youd be looking for. - : Re: Austrian Statistics
i can access all 9k games on this site. size isnt the issue. it just takes time to calculate. i select 100 games since you want a sample size of at least 30 and i dont want to go thru all 9k+ games. i dont know TGM's capabilities with whatever programs he has available to him.
hes welcome to do this though. i just took the initiative. - : Re: Austrian Statistics
@sayjo i welcome any help youd like to offer! feel free to post additional finding /thoughts/insights. all im doing is collecting the first 100 (consecutive) qualifying games and disregarding any that arent viable games. i dont want people to necessarily view this as my work. i post the stats and leave everything open to the interpretation of others (adding my own insights as well). - : Re: Blatant Cheating
i think that this thread is simply a proponent of viewing a persons profile at the beginning of the game. theres a lot of information that can be gleaned by knowing your opponent. - : Re: Austrian Statistics
@LJ yes i agree with that assessment since the stats do agree, but i find it interesting that its not just in that fashion but across the board in all of the stats presented, even when austria does well.
@sean yes, i will cover all the countries in alphabetic order. england is next - : Re: Austrian Statistics
@masterninja...um, im sorry for the inconvenience. i didnt know i participated in giving you that reputation. - : Re: Austrian Statistics
i did not use the following game types:
games that ended before 1904
7-way draws
games with clear indications of multi-accounting
games in which 3 or more players resigned
When Austria Draws, Who Else Draws?
Germany 59%
England 49%
Italy 44%
France 43%
Russia 38%
Turkey 32%
When Austria is Defeated, Who Solos?
Russia 30%
Turkey 25%
France 16%
Italy 12%
Germany 11%
England 6%
When Austria Solos, Who's Eliminated?
Turkey 72%
Russia 60%
Italy 58%
Germany 51%
France 32%
England 20%
Mean Year of an Austrian Solo: 1911
Best Allies: England, Germany
Greatest Adversaries: Russia, Turkey
Much of the information that i saw here was what i expected. the most startling bits of info was when i saw the sharp increase in english performance when austria does well. german statistics were to be expected since austria and germany are the tightest allies money can buy. when austria solos, england was the least likely country to be eliminated (makes sense), when austria is defeated, england had the lowest percentage of solo wins (very shocking) and when austria drew, england had the second highest liklihood of drawing as well only behind the obvious germany.
russia and turkey also were no brainers taking home the highest win pct's when austria is defeated and highest eliminations when austria solos. - : Re: University
government major eh? no wonder you play diplomacy. - : Re: How can i act when i think there are players chatting in Gunboat games?
im not a big fan of gunboat games since when a country starts to get a clear edge, its near impossible to stop them. i do, however enjoy the difference from time to time. - : Re: TGM: in-game messaging fix needed
ROFL!! we're men, we dont need no stinkin GPS. we invented GPS to prove our point.
what ive come to know is that the man is always right. women just happen to have some gene that we have yet to discover that prevents them from agreeing with us. so to that end, ive found it easier to simply know im right and keep my mouth shut because whether i prove im right or not will never result in her saying "you were right".
now the never talking to me the rest of the night i have yet to accomplish. - : Re: People you would like to meet in person
i dunno. i havent been to origins since the 90s. im sure they have a site out there.
do they still send you booklets in the mail or have they gone electronic via the web like gen con? - : Re: TGM: in-game messaging fix needed
take your time. the less games i have to worry about, the better my math grade will be on this calculus exam. i feel kestas' pain.
@draugnar i never worry about what i missed. my wife usually fills me in on details after i argue that shes wrong. - : Re: TGM: in-game messaging fix needed
im a patient guy. of course, reading more than 80% of an email may have helped my situation as well. - : Re: People you would like to meet in person
i kinda jumped into this thread way late in the game. and true to form, the thread has morphed into a bird of a different color (may not even be a bird at all...)
id like to mee the people from the "great" state of kentucky. i know jacob, chalks, mburton0042 and a spattering of other folks here. ive only played one ftf game and im itching for a second one. my wife owes me big come next year's b-day. i might try to scandal off a gen-con ticket XD
that and meet jesus in the flesh. i know his voice. - : Re: Winning percentages by Country?
i posted them not long ago. check the previous forum pages. - : Re: Football Teams
the denver broncos :) nolan and mcdaniels have done beyond what was anticipated of them and built a very strong team.
everyone claims that this sunday they will lose to the ravens but they said the same thing for their game against the cowboys and patriots as well. i expect to be 7-0 this sunday evening.
i see playoffs for certain but i dont anticipate a super bowl appearance. i think indy has the strongest AFC chance. - : Re: Anyone wanna take over?
not much here in kentucky. a few colleges (like here in bowling green) and some of our state's famous kentucky jelly. - : Re: Game Limit
my goal is to peel myself away from the site so that im content playing in 1 game. the only problem is that since im too eager to see the next season's move results, i play in far too many. that, coupled with the fact that the TMG series games come at you like a flood doesnt help. - : Re: Swine Flu
i agree with sicarius. i wont touch the vaccinations with a 10 foot pole (course, i guess thats why they manufacture the 11 footer). im just waiting for a terrible tragedy to come from the vaccines at some point like it horribly mixing wrong with a large portion of the population.
the only reason people are scared of it is because its so widespread and can kill infants and elderly. i just lock my sons in a sterile room. grandma is just screwed i guess. its a genuine epidemic but nothing like the black plague. - : Re: You know what sucks?
http://phpdiplomacy.tournaments.googlepages.com/tmgmasters2009-10 - : Re: diplomacy statistics
yes, a two-time dad. i couldnt handle being a mom. something about another human being syphoning liquid from my nipples does things to my mind. - : Re: Classic Rock
id have to say Third Day. Mack Powell is a plain guy with a unique sounding voice but the band as a whole is amazing.
although we could go beyond him to one of his inspirations Rich Mullins. - : Re: Gaming Websites
catan.com isnt too bad. s3dconnector.net was a much better site, but its since fallen to the wayside. - : Re: diplomacy statistics
ah, ic. its either cuz its been late or lack of sleep from baby. i see what youre saying. - : Re: diplomacy statistics
@ centurian, good point. i can certainly tabulate that given some time.
right now, im working on some austrian percentages on thru to the other 7 countries - : Re: diplomacy statistics
@draugnar, the reason your math is flawed is because you tabulated the example game 1 as a 2-way draw. you forgot a country :) - : Re: diplomacy statistics
@ draugnar: thats what i was explaining is that you have to total all of the draws in a way that 2-ways are 1/2, 3-way draws are 1/3, etc. in my example, all of the draws were 3-way since its easier to show. if you look at the total number of the 317 drawn games, the average is somewhere between 3 and 4. (hence 344.8% total)
yes, TGM, the average is between 3 and 4. you can find this by looking at the actual numbers. - : Re: diplomacy statistics
the reason some percentages go over 100% is because of draws. for example if we take 3 3-way draw games as follows:
game 1: drawn by austria, france, italy
game 2: drawn by russia, france, turkey
game 3 drawn by england, germany, russia
this means that france and russia drew 66.7% of the time while the other countries drew 33.3% of the time. thus if we look at the stats to it, it will read as follows:
france: 66.7%
russia 66.7%
england 33.3%
italy 33.3%
turkey 33.3%
germany 33.3%
austria 33.3%
clearly this does not add to 100%. instead, it will add to 300% (100% calculated over 3 games).
the only way to get percentages of draws to add to 100% is to grant a partial win instead of a complete win by dividing the 1 win over the n-players thus each player in the games listed above would get 1/3 of a win.
in order to do that for this list, you would have to take the average number of players per draw (its a little over 3) and divide all of the percentages by 3.
if people are interested in seeing this manipulation of the percent, i can calculate it when i get time. it wouldnt take much. - : Re: diplomacy statistics
to explain the stats a little more:
the % of total wins is a calculation of all wins and draws combined by a country over the 1001 games and listed in order from highest pct to lowest, thusfrance came out ahead winning or drawing in 30.0% of all games.
the % of solo wins out of all games / out of all solos are the calculations of a country's solo win percentage first given out of the 1001 games followed by the pct of all solo wins out of all games that ended with solo wins (684). thus in this case, russia solo won 13.9% of all games and solo won 20.3% of all games in which a country took a solo victory.
the next set of percentages are the same as they are for the solos but for draws instead. france drew 19.3% of all games and france participated in 60.9% of all drawn games (amazing!)
the final country statistic series is a calculation of all eliminations a country had (both in drawn games and solo win games) followed by all eliminations a country had in which a country took a solo. austria came out as the biggest loser here by being eliminated 60.8% of the time out of all 1001 games regardless of whether it came through a draw or solo win and they were eliminated in 58.8% of all games in which a player solo won.
the last statistic is the percentage of all n-way draws first as a percentage of all games played followed by a percentage of all drawn games (317). thus, the highest percentage of draws was with 3-way draws in 15.2% of all games played (1001) and 47.9% of all draws ended in a 3-way draw. - : Re: diplomacy statistics
next, i will work on the individual countries and supply a variety of other statistics that may be fun or useful. - : Re: diplomacy statistics
Games that ended before 1904
Solo wins when the winner had less than 18 supply centers
Gunboat games
Public press games
Games with 3 or more countries ending with a "resigned" status
Games with clear evidence of multi-accounting
*note that any time draw wins are calculated, percentages do not tally to 100% since in any draw situation, more than one country is calculated as the 'winner'
% of total wins (solo or drawn wins):
France: 30.0%
Turkey: 29.3%
Russia: 28.7%
England: 27.0%
Germany: 26.4%
Italy 18.2%
Austria: 17.9
% of solo wins out of all total games / out of all solo wins
Russia: 13.9% / 20.3%
Turkey: 12.4% / 18.1%
France: 10.7% / 15.6%
Germany/England: 9.8% / 14.3 %
Austria: 6.8% / 9.8%
Italy: 5.0% / 7.3%
% of drawn games out of all games / out of all drawn games
France: 19.3 / 60.9%
England: 17.2% / 54.3%
Turkey: 16.8% / 53.0%
Germany: 16.6% / 52.4%
Russia: 14.8% / 46.7%
Italy: 13.2% / 41.6%
Austria: 11.1% / 35.0%
% of eliminations out of all games / out of all solo games
Austria: 60.8% / 58.8%
Russia: 48.2% / 45.8%
Italy: 47.3% / 42.1%
Germany: 46.7% / 46.2%
England: 38.3% / 34.8%
France: 34.0% / 31.6%
Turkey: 27.0 / 17.7%
concerning drawn games, the breakdown of the percentage of number of players participating in a draw is as follows:
out of all games / out of all draws
3-way: 15.2% / 47.9%
4-way: 7.2% / 22.7%
2-way: 4.9% / 15.5%
5-way: 2.0% / 6.3%
6-way: 1.5% / 4.7%
7-way: 0.9% / 2.8% - : Re: Luke Alexander McOwen
mostly lethal. she ended up with a survival.
and the star wars reference didnt come to me until months after the name was chosen and at that point, i had to do it. - : Re: webdiplomacy statistics
im in the process of compiling that data using the last 1000 games. im at 700 now. it will list solo pct's for each country, draw pct's, n-way draw frequencies and eliminations. ill follow it up with the first 100 wins/draws for each country, most common allies/liklihood of second place, avg win year, and when eliminated, who commonly wins.