Here goes my monster EOG statement for England. I actually did go back and match press to moves to try to recreate my thought process.
S01. G approaches me right off the bat about aggressive anti-F collaboration. I like that. I raise the possibility of an anti-G plan with F, who proposes that we limit G’s builds by attacking Bel and Hol in A01. That sounds like a bad deal for me, but I play along and see if F is willing to support Par-Bur. F is reluctant; we agree to DMZ EC but the crux of the plan is me taking a shot at Hol or Den to bounce G while F moves on Bel. Meanwhile, G is willing to go Mun-Bur if I go Lon-EC. I’m leaning toward favoring G, except F says G is leaking to him that I will violate the DMZ and go to EC. Around that time, T suggests to me and A suggests to G that Italy is interested in an EGI attack on F. Italy confirms, and that is the tipping point for me. We try it, but F bounces me in EC and bounces G in Bur. It sounds like there have been some loose lips. Italy succeeds into Pie. The rest of the board looks normal except that Sev did not move. That’s good for me, T is keeping R busy so he is weak in Scandinavia.
A01. EG agree to repeat our moves, we’re still going after F. The hot topic is the AIT triple alliance, brought up independently in my press with F and G. G proposes an EGR counter-Triple. F threatens that if I do not relent in EC, the FGR counter-Triple will eat me up. I do not believe there is an FGR counter-Triple because it makes no sense strategically, and tell F so. However, I maintain the discussion with F that I may switch sides but not yet. I have no intention of switching, but it’s good to keep open options and I may influence F’s moves to my favor. EGI all followed through on their moves against France, but Italy attacked Tri. I don’t know if it was part of a planned bounce. If not, I don’t understand Italy’s move at all since he should be focused on France and not picking a fight on a new front. By A01, I am fairly convinced that F is MadMarx. We have never played together before, but the volume and quality of press, especially compared to that of the other players, is a giveaway. However, my strong suspicion as to F’s identity did not play into my game decisions.
S02. A built a fleet in Tri. I don’t know if the instigating move was Vie-Tri or the fleet build, but one way or another things are now officially bad between Austria and Italy. I can see the writing on the wall that the EGI vs. F alliance is toast. If there ever was an AIT triple, it’s dust now. I decide to make moves that are not inconsistent with EG vs. F, but do not hurt F. EC does a meaningless support of Lon-Nth rather than attack Bre or MAO, but it does not seem to alarm G. G is still busy storming F. Italy fully abandons the attack on F to fight. Things are peaceful between me and R and I convince him to leave StP unguarded. The spring moves show RT have patched things up and are moving in on A.
A02. This is the crucial turn in the EGF dynamic. Italy and Austria are fighting, and RT is closing in on A. Without Italy’s assistance, I predict that EG will make slow progress against F. Meanwhile, I can expect a Russian build in StP and that opportunity will be closed to me if I don’t act now. I decide to switch sides and help F against G. I actually prefer EF vs. G rather than EG vs. F as a general matter, although of course each game is different. G agrees to support my army into Bel. F agrees not to fight me for Bel. In a surprise move to G, I slide my fleet from EC into Bel instead. Meanwhile, I betray R by stealing StP and convoying my army to Nor instead of Bel. This gives me two builds, I have locked down the north, have a competent ally in F who is indebted to me, and am in good position against G with momentum.
My efforts to chill out both G and R seems successful. I tell them both I was worried about a German double-cross, FG vs. E, so I went for the sure build in StP. R seems nonplussed, since he probably expected it anyway. G appears understanding, but wants me to build F Lvp. That isn’t happening of course, but I continue the dialogue with G so that he thinks we are still working together. I hatch a plan for him to force me out of Bel and dislodge me to EC, purportedly for a renewed attack on F. I use my builds for fleets in Edi and Lon, making me the uncontested naval power outside of the Med.
S03. I am playing for a solo, as I feel everyone should be. In that context, I now feel that the greatest threat to me is T. T has survived the early game and his neighbors will not be able to curb him unless action is taken immediately. I try to steer Italy that direction, but he is still interested in EGI vs. F (after he already abandoned us once!). I pitch to Italy the idea that I am allied with neither F nor G, but merely want their armies bashing together while I rule the seas. Italy is not interested in my proposal that I dominate the Atlantic and he dominate the Med.
This game starts getting a little confusing for me, because I am simultaneously playing another game as England where I am allied with France. The lines between the games blur a little bit, and it is difficult to remember what I said to which power in which game.
I know that Bel is at risk, but I’m not worried about losing it. It gives me currency for negotiation and doesn’t really hurt my strategic position. I am still actively discussing collaboration with G throughout this whole process. I offer to support him into Swe. It is designed to breach the issue of a joint attack on Swe. As I expected, the end result is G offering to support me into Swe. I hear from R that G plans to move against me. I’m still telling everyone but F that it’s EG vs. F, I just got spooked last turn. My real intent is to continue working with F in a strong alliance to sweep eastward. Since Italy won’t help me with T, I am trying to steer F against Italy but F is reluctant. I have the choice of moving Nth to Hel or Ska and do not expect a bounce in either. I choose Ska so that if G actually follows through on supporting me to Swe (which I don’t expect) then R can’t retreat to Ska and instead will retreat to Bal, undermining G. When the orders resolve, G takes Bel anyway but does not support me into Swe.
F is freaked out paranoid now. Italy leaked to him about my Bel for Swe proposal, but I can plausibly cover it up. F accuses me of double-dealing (who, me? Never!) and vaguely threatens to blacklist me. He thinks that I fabricated Italy’s desire to attack F just to weaken him (which is not true). He asks if I knew G would force me out of Bel so I retreated to EC and I say it was discussed but I did not know what G would do (true, but I was pretty sure G would try to take Bel). I try to calm F down, but he’s on alert for the rest of the game. The threat of blacklisting really ticks me off but I’ve set myself up for alliance with F and I think if I attack F now it will be FG against me. I told F earlier in the game that I respond much better to carrots than sticks. The good news is that if FG band against me now, they can’t do much because of my amassed fleets and their corresponding lack.
A03. Lots more press between EF on game philosophy, lots of me trying to chill him out. G and I still pretend that we are working together, but it’s pretty obviously a two-way lie. F says G is desperate to work with him against me. I tell GI let’s drop the pretense, I’m out to kill G. I take Den and assist F into Ruh. Meanwhile, F moves on Italy. Things are looking good. I’m trying to incite T against Italy, the sooner to bring F and T into conflict since Italy wouldn’t attack T. A asks me to persuade F to cease attacking Italy, Magic 8-Ball says: Don’t Count On It.
1904: EF beat up on G. Italy tries to spread false rumors, to no avail. R seems content to let me tap Swe each turn. I tell R he has nothing to worry about in Swe, and he sagely notes that’s what I said about StP. I’m sure he knows it is just a matter of time, but as I explain to F, if R fights me now he knows it is a losing battle. If he delays he has a chance to stabilize in the south and fend me off. I convince R to tap Ber for me, resulting in me keeping Kie. That’s a death blow for G.
1905: IT finally start fighting. F moves into position to make sure T doesn’t kill Italy too fast, while also setting himself up to hit Italy himself. EF are mopping up G. It has always been my intent to take Ber, but I ask R what his intentions are for intel and negotiation purposes. He remains silent and takes it himself. In response, I invade Swe. I was somewhat concerned about dealing with a R fleet retreated to GoB, but fortunately for me he disbanded it. EF have a lengthy discussion about whether it is better to promise your long-term ally that you will never ever stab him (the gushy BFF lie) vs. tell him you will stab him if the situation is right, but let’s never let the situation get right (the cold ominous truth). Also, F wants to build armies and I want F to build fleets. The reason is simple – I want F pushing aggressively against T with a stack of fleets, rather than settling for a stalemate line. T remains my biggest obstacle to a solo. I make it clear to F that I am not playing for a three-way EFT draw and I expect him to battle T, as I will.
1906: F moves Bre-MAO and per agreement I match it with NWG-Cly. I got burned in my other in-progress EF alliance game with a French fleet moving north and don’t want to repeat the experience. EF are cleaning up in the middle board. In A06, sure enough, here comes a rogue F fleet into EC. It’s under control because of my fleet advantage, but annoying. F attacks Italy at the same time, which I approve. EF disagree on how to approach a proposal or situation that makes one uncomfortable: do you tell your ally straight-up it makes you uncomfortable, or do you appear nonchalant and take independent steps to protect yourself just in case? I tell F that if I ever stab him, which I do not intend to do, it won’t be until like 1912 so he should stop worrying now. It’s kind of a joke, but it’s also true. I do not intend to stab him anytime soon, and if I ever do, my best estimate is 1912.
1907: EF relations are normalized. It now is 2 on 2, EF vs. RT. EF both work on T to stab R. F admits he will not attack T and he is seeking a 3-way draw. This is very upsetting to me, although I have suspected it for a while. My goal since I allied with F was to help each other grow and preserve a fair opportunity for either of us to solo. I am not looking for a draw of any kind, 2-way or 3-way. The likely result would be a 3-way draw where one of us gets significantly ahead and the other allies with a greatly diminished T to prevent the solo. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t and the solo succeeds. F is having none of that, which I think is a wimpy attitude at this stage of the game. This is a problem for me, as I do not expect I can take on FT by myself and if I stab F, T is in position to rush in and get a solo himself.
1908: Shifting around. EF know T is getting in position to stab R. EF have set up a static, safe situation. I am slowly picking up centers from R. I am still expecting an EFT 3-way draw, but if I can get enough armies eastward to set up and hold a stalemate line along Mos/Ukr/War, I will consider stabbing F for a solo attempt. If I were F, I would tell E to sit tight at StP and let T eat up the R centers and get to 15 or 16. That way EF are dependent on each other at 9 SC apiece and a draw is a done deal. F does not do this; I think maybe he has gotten bored with the game.
1909: The hammer falls on R. F gets nervous and sends Mar-Spa(sc). I now have three armies in the east. F asks me to waive my build from Mos, and I do so. In hindsight, I think this was a mistake by me and ultimately doomed any chance I had at a solo. I should have built A Edi and dealt with the heat from F, then convoyed the army over to get an extra unit in Russia to help with my eventual stalemate line.
1910: I gain War and am now set up for Mos/Ukr/War. I wish I had a fourth army in the east. F asks me to shift Hol-Hel, Hel-Den to keep us even on centers and give us one build each, to be used for defensive armies. If I am going to make a move on F, now is the time to do it when I have two builds. I spend a long time evaluating this situation. I bust out my physical Diplomacy set and play out many permutations. I conclude that I have insufficient armies to both hold the Mos/Ukr/War line against T and make progress against F before T can achieve the solo. My fleets could rush to MAO or convoy newly built armies, but they can’t do both and time is my enemy. I reluctantly agree to the shift with a smile. Of course I’ll do that for my ally, EF peace and equality forever. T tells me he will hold off on attacking F if I stab F, but only if I first give T Mos and War. Get real! No way.
1911: To my surprise, A didn’t knock off R last turn. R still has two centers, Vie and Bud. That means I have a little cushion of time that I was not expecting. Maybe I can still get things set up against F. T asks me not to interfere with his elimination of R. I convoy my army from Kie over to Pru so I now have four units in the east. Since I will not be convoying armies to StP, I no longer need a fleet in Bar so I move it to Nor. If I do move against F, I now anticipate that I will need Hel to help support Kie, so Nor is available to move to Nth.
Also to my surprise, F moves Bur-Ruh. What was that?! F got spooked again. He proposes we discuss orders for what happens around Kie/Ber to make sure we stay even on centers. I decline, saying the game is about to be over and we will draw. I’ve already figured out orders that make sure either we all will bounce or trade Ber for Kie. Except then I spike the odds in my favor by asking R to move Boh-Mun. The result is that I take Ber and keep Kie. I should have moved War-Sil to destroy the French army while bouncing myself in War, but unfortunately I did not think ahead enough. I didn’t really expect R to help me out, so I thought it would be a big bounce in Germany.
Oh, and by the way, I also sent two fleets into NAO and Nth. If there was a bounce in Germany, I would patch relations and back off. If I ended up +1, it gave me options. I quickly build my second army and try to cover myself in press with F. It was just a strong response to his unilateral move to Ruh. I point out that this is the third time he has made a unilateral move against me without prior discussion, whereas I have never done so against him until now. F complains that my move is bringing the house against him and is much larger in scope than his little adjustments here and there.
I tell T that if he wants to explore further, he should hold off on voting draw. Once R is eliminated, I enter draw myself so I can show F that I intend to draw. I still haven’t decided if I will attack F and by voting draw I put the decision partially in T’s hands.
1912: Here we are in 1912, right where I predicted in 1906 that I might stab F, if ever I did (one could argue I already did in 1911 by taking Ber and moving to NAO/Nth). Apparently, T tells F that I asked him to hold off on voting draw so I could attack F. Great. That kills any chance I have of a sneak attack on F. The only possibility I had of a solo was to convince F that my units were retreating and he should hold the line against T. No way that is happening now, so I want a draw.
F swears he is throwing the game to T and it’s up to me to quickly make reparations to prevent the T solo. I fully intend to do whatever F wants now to preserve the draw. It was a longshot for me to solo anyway, and I now recognize there is no chance at all. I tell F I will do whatever is necessary. As it turns out, we never find out how it plays out because T enters the final vote for the draw.
Overall, I enjoyed the game and my alliance with F. It easily could have gone differently in 1902-1903 had Italy and Turkey not started fighting. I still don’t know whose fault that was, but if Italy had still been part of EGI vs. F, then I would not have flipped. Once Italy shifted his attention east, I thought EF was in my best interests.
EF had a very productive alliance with a lot of good communication and collaboration. We had clashes in game play style on three major points. One was what you do when your ally proposes something that makes you uncomfortable. When I have a strong alliance with a good player like we did in this game, I will tell my ally and I expect my ally to tell me. I consider it part of the open communication. F preferred to steer me out of the proposed move through some tactical argument that did not explicitly show his discomfort. The result was that on a couple occasions, I decided his tactical argument was flawed and went ahead with the move whereas had he just said it made him uncomfortable I would have desisted for that reason alone.
The second point was on your general approach to your long-term ally on the subject of stab potential. IMO, everyone should be playing for solo in a WTA. F preferred to flood me with “I love you, you’re the bestest, I will defend you with my life” whereas my approach was “we’re both big boys, I’ll never stab you to reduce the size of a draw, but I’ll stab you if I think it will lead to my solo and I expect you to do the same, so let’s both do a good job of never making the other feel that way.” I don’t think there’s a *right* answer, but F’s approach just seems like a blatant lie to me, while my approach seems more honest. But maybe people don’t like to hear the honest truth. F told me he would rather that I lie to him and say I’ll never stab him.
The third point was on playing for a draw vs. playing for a solo. By 1906, EF was doing very well. Even if T had not stabbed R, I felt pretty good about my chances of wiping out R on my own. The problem is that I needed F to match me with progress against T in the south. F wasn’t interested in attacking T, instead settling for a 3- or 4-way draw. This was very troubling. In my view at the time, F was my only ally and everyone else was meat. I didn’t like that F’s lack of desire to play for a solo crippled my own ability to try for a solo. However, there wasn’t much I could do about it. Even if I wildly succeeded against R such that I could attack T directly myself, by that point I would be too strong and FT would band against me (or F would have asked for centers along the way to keep us even).
That’s it. Thanks to MadMarx for setting up the Invitational and letting me play. Now that I’ve spilled the beans on my thought process, it will be interesting to see if next time you will want me as an ally due to our strong collaboration or if you will be too spooked that I was still scheming along the way.