This piece of analysis by Ivo_ivanov back in 2009 is the best I have seen for considering the G/R situation. I have reprinted it below ( hope Ivo's OK with that)
"5 Dec 2009: Re: School of War - Game VI
@SunZi
Sorry for not responding earlier to your question. I saw there's a new turn and jumped to the commentary right away. Your question in not inane in any way, actually, it's one of the 'eternal' questions - what should GER do about SWE first year. There're many opinions out there, I haven't seen one that is sound in its entirety, but here's what I've come to:
1. The main problem for GER, in relation to SWE, is that he has to make the fist move. Chances are that by Fall'01 there're not enough clear indications of where the game is going, so it's really a shot in the dark. All that a GER player will know for certain, when he inputs the DEN-SWE move, is that he's not gaining anything more than an enemy. Everything else is speculations and assumptions.
2. Many times a GER player will bounce SWE and claim he was pressure by the others to do so. This is a really lame excuse, which can only mean that either the GER player is not that experienced, or that he thinks RUS is such. Because, the fact of the matter is, that a bounce in SWE is beneficial to at least 3-4 other players, but not to GER or RUS. Just as any other war really. Starting a war for the sole reason that others asked you to is simply poor play.
3. When you take a look at Scandinavia, it's clear that the three powers present are all natural enemies. Should any one of them grow too strong, this is usually very bad news for the other two. GER starts in the strongest position, noone can stop him for DEN, while both NOR and SWE can be contested. So, what is the worst thing you can do in a triangle-type relation, when you have the upper hand? Commit against one of the others, leaving the third player (ENG in this case) to call the shots and "be the decider", as G.W. Junior would put it :)
4. Let's examine the builds and second year, to see how each approach will play out:
- If RUS is not in SWE, this usually leads to no build in St.P. RUS is in a weak spot, not knowing whether to move back to protect St.P., or keep trying for SWE. Without an agreement with ENG he can't do anything really, as nothing can stop ENG from walking in St.P. So, to repeat myself, all you gained is an enemy who can be easily manipulated by ENG.
- If RUS is in SWE, most likely this will lead to a build in St.P. Probably an army, maybe a fleet on NC. RUS does not want war with GER in the beginning, his focus is in the South, security is all that's needed in the North. Give him that and he's yours.
5. Obviously, in some situations bouncing SWE makes sense. If you see RUS is getting two builds in the South, if you have already made up your mind and are planning to place two fleets (as in our case), which will automatically make RUS an enemy anyway, and so on. But these are really rare cases.
6. For this site specifically, you should keep in mind that people sometimes do background checks. Meta-gaming or not, that's the situation. So, the one thing you don't want, is every RUS knowing that you always bounce SWE. One has to take care about such things.
7. Whatever you are going to do, never ever tell RUS you will bounce him in advance. Unless you want to end up in SWE with a RUS fleet in BAL and an ENG army in DEN. It's a really ugly sight for any GER.
So, to recap, bouncing SWE is a huge unknown, when it comes to the benefits, while there're some clear negatives. For me, this is a clear decision.
What I usually do as GER is let RUS to take SWE, place in St.P. and then proceed to take NOR, while I move in SWE behind him. Having NOR provides better control for RUS, as he has two neighboring units now, plus it leaves everything from G-o-B to SIL as a DMZ.
If I'm RUS and I get offered such a deal I'd always take it.
And, keep in mind that if your goal, as GER, is to take SWE, it really makes no difference whether RUS's fleet is in G-o-B or in SWE. The only difference is how are RUS and ENG moving, and it's always better to have RUS being able to attack ENG (NOR), than not. Unless you want him to only be able to fight you that is :)"