I realise it is not encouraged to discuss ongoing games but I feel that it is ok in this case since I have no intention of discussing the game beyond anyswering my question of whether its a draw or not.

no*

wow, fast reply.

No. I can see a way for you to win.

I had some strategies in mind which could allow me to win but they all involved quite some risk, as I built too many fleets and no longer have to option to move enough armies in.

IMO - play on. Take the risks and see where they take you.

I'm going to disagree. While there are still changes in board position, this will be stalemate unless Turkey screws up or England and France start fighting each other.

And yes, you built too many fleets.

Here are two good resources to research Stalemate lines so you can answer your own question

http://www.diplomacy-archive.com/resources/strategy.htm
http://www.diplom.org/Zine/S2002R/Birsan/Western_Wall.html

just analyze each front - the WestMed/Spain / GoL / MAO front is easy enough. Next just look at each other potential battle - what would you do if you were the enemy, and how can you defend. The reality is that you are very close to a well-known stalemate, but I agree that you should find it yourself. It helps figure out non-stalemate strategies if you can think as the other person and then think of your response to it. If Every possible move by the opposing alliance can be countered by the same order set, then you are at a stalemate. If you are perfectly protected, yet have no opportunities for advancament because they are too, then it's a stalemate. You are close, but there are still territories that can be taken in your current position. Find them and protect against, or take advantage of them.

I'm a strong believer in a turkey with lots and lots of fleets.