There was an announcement in the Sacramento Bee that Ogion was hired by a new law firm: Dewey, Cheatam and Howe.

I think Hurricane Harvey is basically

Earth to Texas: "Can you hear me now?"

I don't work for any law firm. I work for a non profit trying to stop the US from fucking up the earth.

Capt Brad works for Eye, Grope, Lowe & Scragg.

Dayum. Areas getting 60" in Texas would be experiencing what would be, under prior rainfall distributions, no a once in a hundred year flood (Houston has had six of those since 1989 (oh, but the frequency of extreme events isn't increasin, oh no!)), not once in a thousand year event, but a once in a million year event. You read that right

Still thing climate change hasn't changed the rules of the game in a major way?

A once in a million years event? If you believe that you'll believe anything.

What that tells me is that Texans have failed to model their flood risk correctly. It is surprising common, as flood risk is a tricky thing even in densely populated nations like the UK with relatively small catchments and a wealth of historic data. It's also worth noting that in the past 100 years Houston has expanded from the size of a small town to a huge city. The historic data that did exist would essentially be meaningless as the catchment characteristics have altered so significantly.

In short, your 100 year flood is plainly wrong. Trying to estimate a 1000 year flood is laughable. The fact that you're even considering a million year flood as a thing shows that your knowledge of flood risk is on a par with a kid suggesting that welding aeroplanes together might create an aircraft powerful enough to fly to the moon.

I'm sure you're a clever chap and all, but you're well outside of your area of expertise and you're talking utter tosh.

Lol. Says the guys who doesn't understand how a distribution works or how these things are calculated.

You don't even know what the word "thousands year flood" means

Let me help you:
The peak flood each year defines a flood area. This varies from year to year. That variation defines a distribution of heights. We can describe that distribution and based on the mathematical characteristics of that distribution estimate what flood levels have a 999 out of a thousand under that level etc. the same principle works for rain data. So we can look at the distribution of rainfall dates and estimate that 999,999 out of a million rainfall event are under 60"

Yeah they got it wrong because the underlying distribution has changed. But of course, rather than look at the bloody obvious explanation, you bob and weave in an effort to deny reailty. Sure, putting up the thermostat and putting on a blanket might be why you're warmer, but you're right. It could be sunspots


You've just demonstrated your complete ignorance of scientific reasoning by the way


Not that science or facts matter to someone like you. It'd take work to understand and that isn't your thing

One wonders whether if you'd take a similar approach to a cancer diagnosis to be utterly certain you know a lot more than the professionals. Then one wonders whether anyone would miss you if you do.

You wonder whether anyone would miss me if I died of cancer? Why, you really are a miserable wretch of human being. I think we're done here. The only thing you have successfully demonstrated is that Harvard's standards aren't what they used to be.

Harvard's standards aren't what they used to be

could it be ?? affirmative action to blame???

No

oh defensive are we ^ ? TrPrado are you a 'failed' harvard grad?

Well, you're the one trying to deny there's a threat to billions of people on earth, so one might well wonder whether you're really in a position to declare anyone else a wretch. I am sorry for that being over the top, but at the end of the day, denialism is threatening the lives of billions. I'm not sure it's a moral step up from white supremacism, frankly.

Oh, and the data had zero to do with flood maps. It had to do with rainfall totals. For which the NWS has had to add new colors to the maps.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/08/28/546776542/national-weather-service-adds-new-colors-so-it-can-map-harveys-rains?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews

That's what unprecendented means. And unprecedented maybe has to do with the massive changes to earth's climate scientists have been warning about to so little effect.

And yeah, Captain Brad shows how phenomenally racist he is. In fact, I'm the most privileged white guy you'll ever see. But very smart and very hard working. Son of a refugee, you know. The kind that don't take everything for granted.

Oh, and on the storms increasing
Since the mid-1970s, the number of hurricanes that reach Categories 4 and 5 in strength—that is, the two strongest classifications—has roughly doubled [12].

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/hurricanes-and-climate-change.html#.WaRiV9GQxPZ

Yeah. That's an increase in extreme weather.

[12] Webster, P.J., G.J. Holland, J.A. Curry, and H.-R. Chang. 2005. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309:1,844-1,846.

Kossin, J.P., K.R. Knapp, D.J. Vimont, R.J. Murnane, and B.A. Harper. 2007. A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophysical Research Letters 34:L04815 doi:10.1029/2006GL028836

I'm new here. What is the link between global warming and white supremacy?

Million year flood?

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?

It can't be more than a 500 year flood considering climate change accelerating frequency of extreme weather events.

Jeff, read the definition of a million year rainfall event. It is one so incredibly rare than 999,999 out of a million rainfall events would have less than 60" based on the observed distribution of rainfall events over the historical record.

In other words, no WAY this even it just "normal variation"

@flashy:
both white supremacy and climate change denialism are indifferent to the fact that the ideology puts the lives of millions at risk.

So Texans don't want to pay into government, so they are turning away and refusing government help, correct? Just rely on the private sector to help, because that's ok.