I've been looking forward to this speech for a while (which is pretty much a first for me). It seems perfectly clear that the UK will never agree to be a member of the super close knit future EU favoured by France and Germany. Hopefully the speech will be enough of a catalyst to create a new two-tier EU that will last, as apposed to the current two-tier system which assumes those in the second (none-euro) tier will ultimately join the first.

Take us with you in that second tier! That sounds like the place where all the cool kids are!

We can but dream...

Leaving the EU is not something most British people would want, but it is a far more paletable option than being part of Framany and its southern European dependancies. Ultimately the EU becoming a stable two-tier system or a UK exit are the only realistic options.

Not that anyone in Europe cares about the UK. It ceased to be a major player years ago.

Ha! You just wait 'til we close the Channel Tunnel and you're completely cut off!

In all seriousness saying the UK isn't a major EU player is idiocy. The EU without the UK will be a significantly lesser entity. Besides which I suspect there are a lot of mainlanders who share similar views about the EU

Poland has more influence on EU politics than the UK. How often does EU acts on the initiative of the UK?

How often does the UK rightfully prevent the EU from acting?

On its own (which is the point of being a major player)? Rarely, very rarely. Also, what constitutes rightfully is debatable.

Yes, that's what rightfulness has in common with major playerness.

UK: 63 million people, at only a few kilometers distance from EU mainland, decisive role in 20th century European military and diplomatic history, UN SC member, birth nation of EU Lingua Franca, key intermediary in EU-USA relations.

A wise man would listen quite carefully to what the British by the voice of David Cameron will have to say next friday.

Poland: 40 million people, on the EU mainland, decisive role in 20th century European military and diplomatic history

@ Ulytau: Imagine an EU with no UK member and imagine an EU with no Polish member. Which of this alternate EUs do you think would be most different from what exists now?

The geopolitical position isn't the sole determinator of the country's influence in a regional body. China can't boss around countries like Philippines in ASEAN despite obvious discrepancy in their global positions. Poland invests significant political and diplomatic capital in propping up its position in the EU. UK does not.

The UK has been in the EU and its predecessors for 40 years, Poland for 9. If we delete the UK in 1973, the UK would more different than if we deleted Poland. If we do the same in 2004, then not.

You think so? I really can't think of much (nothing if I'm honest) that Poland has influenced the EU to do that the EU wouldn't have done anyway. Influencing a cow to moo is nothing to crow about.

http://www.englishmuse.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/ScarJo_popcorn.gif

I doubt you even know who is their foreign affairs minister though ;)

UKIP

Also, influencing the cow to moo slightly differently and bitching about the cow mooing while the cow moos anyway... not a Sophie's choice, really.

Not to mention that the Irish referendum stopped the cow mooing for a longer time than the UK's last years' efforts combined ;)

@ ulytau

The Polish foreign affairs minister? Not a clue. Same is true of most of the nations on this Earth. The EU foreign minister is totally irrelevant, although I have a feeling it happens to be British this time.

If you think Ireland slowing down an EU decision for a year is an achievment I am at a loss to see why.

Oh, a bit of light reading for you, ulytau. http://www.palgrave-journals.com/cep/journal/v8/n3/full/cep20093a.html
It doesn't cover the last couple of years but is interesting none-the-less.

Not that I have 30 bucks to spend on an article but the "It doesn't cover the last couple of years" is quite important considering the period covered falls into the presidency of Lech Kaczynski, who was a firm eurosceptic, just like his brother Jaroslav, who was a prime minister for few years in that era as well. Poles also received significant morale boost after the global economic crisis, which left them in a relatively OK position.

I don't think the Irish No was a big achievement but it still made a bigger impact in Brussels than the British long-term approach of doing nothing.

It's 30 bucks? Sorry... using a university computer and I guess it did it automatically.

So you're saying Poland's only had influence for a couple of years?

Britian has used its influence to, amongst other things, slow the pace of integration to acceptable levels and keep the idea that nations can opt out of initiatives they find unacceptable. It will soon be using its influence (well, we shall see for sure on Friday) to mold the EU into a successful two tier organisation that will better fit the wishes of all of its peoples into the future.

What has Poland done with its influence?

Yes, I'm saying that today, Poland has more influence in the EU than the UK. That means that in recent years, the UK fell behind Poland in this regard.

The integration is mainly slowed by the discussions about the shape it should have and how should the newly formed institutions work. Its apriori rejection doesn't slow anything. This idea has no power in the Parliament, because the party around Tories is small. The shift from consensual decision making to qualified majority also pushes this approach to obscurity on the supranationlál level.

The opt-outs are not a British specialty. It shares the euro opt-out with Denmark, its last opt-out was shared with Poland and since then, the Czech Republic negotiated one and Ireland will get a quasi-opt-out as well. The UK oversaw the start of this phenomenon, but again, those days are gone.

The Polish have kickstarted the Eastern Partnership. During its presidency, it made sure the Durban climate deal wouldn't account to anything tangible. In the area of constructive opposition to integration, it was Poland that made sure there would be no common shale gas regulation in the EU.

It made sure the Durban climate deal wouldn't account to anything tangible? Impressive! And for their next trick they made a fish swim and water flow downhill! An Eastern alliance of some kind was also inevitable due to their shared EU experience, and Poland's relative economic strength and population size made it a natural leader of such a grouping. As far as no common shale gas regulation goes, well done, but does it count as a major victory? Was there a huge movement in favour of it that you managed to crush via cunning diplomacy?

Most of the 'victories' of your influence strike me as not being the result of Polish cunning but by the Polish claiming what would have happened anyway as their idea.