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A place to discuss topics/games with other webDiplomacy players.
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darklordpotter (102 D)
22 Dec 11 UTC
Live Classic NOW
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=75580
2 replies
Open
darklordpotter (102 D)
22 Dec 11 UTC
The World Ends in FIve Minutes
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=75565
1 reply
Open
Kochevnik (1160 D)
21 Dec 11 UTC
(+1)
Luis Suarez and the difference between Spanish and English terminology
So, the Liverpool football player Luis Suarez just got a huge ban from the English FA for racism. The problem is that what he said is racist in English, but not Spanish, and he was talking in Spanish.
77 replies
Open
redhouse1938 (886 D)
19 Dec 11 UTC
22 years
This game took 22 diployears to finish. Anybody interested in a summary of what happened here?
gameID=67307
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Draugnar (25 D X)
21 Dec 11 UTC
@red - Then let's play a little heads up poker. You can take second place and I'll take the win. :-)
redhouse1938 (886 D)
21 Dec 11 UTC
Well in heads up I won't play second place but I'll take the challenge. Just a little far from Ohio right now :(
Skittles (1048 D)
21 Dec 11 UTC
Haha, this can get even more complex and you can think of it in term of EV (expected value). For this analysis, let's use a bet of 12 (pot of 84) just because you get nice whole numbers for two, three, and four-way draws), but it can be used for any bet size, of course. If you have a guaranteed two-way draw, you get 42 D. If you three-way draw, you get 28 D, and if you draw four-way, you get 21 D. If you solo, you get all 84, of course.

Then it becomes a simple formula (assuming you are decent at estimating the chances of the various outcomes) to determine the EV of your stab and whether you "should" stab to maximize your value, or take the easy draw.

EV = 84a + 42b + 28c + 21 D where A is your chance of the solo, B is your chance of a two-way draw, C is your chance of a three-way draw, and D is your chance of a four-way draw. My examples will only include two and three-way draws, for simplicity.

For example, if you have a decision to make whether or not to take your "guaranteed" two-way draw and finish off the third party or stab your ally and go for the solo, pretend you estimate you have a 60% chance of succeeding, 20% chance of a two-way draw, 10% chance of a three-way draw, and 10% chance of either being eliminated or leaving someone else to get the victory. You would have:

EV = .6(84) + .2(42) + .1(28) = 61.6

Because 61.6 is above your guaranteed gain of 42 for the sure two-way, you should clearly stab in this situation.


Using this analysis, the requirements of going for the solo may be lower than you expect. Assume you think you only have a 40% shot at the solo, and if you fail, you will most likely give another player the win, or be eliminated, 30% of the time, but have a chance to be included in a two or three-way draw at 15% each.

Gain = .4(84) + .15(42) + .15(28) = 44.1

In this case, trying for the stab is still the optimal decision, albeit only slightly. It just shows that even if your stab is more likely to fail than succeed, it can be the correct decision to try for it.

If you play poker, you can certainly understand this concept in terms of pot odds. When you are drawing for a flush, more times than not you are not going to hit, but it is a good decision to go for it if the odds are right.

I didn't expect this to get so technical but I think it can be an eye-opener to people who have never thought of it in these terms before.
redhouse1938 (886 D)
21 Dec 11 UTC
It's an interesting analysis. I base my strategy always on similar analyses to the one you present.
Skittles (1048 D)
21 Dec 11 UTC
(+1)
Funny enough, I actually have never actually used that analysis during a game. I've certainly thought about it in terms of how big of a chance I have to succeed and what might happen if it fails, but I have never actually done the math.

However, this conversation got me thinking about it. The difficulty, of course, is accurately estimating the percentages of each outcome, which isn't always easy to do.
Hyperion (1000 D)
22 Dec 11 UTC
I think this game lasted 22 years because France kept making poor tactical orders, despite him being one of the strongest at one point. Italy played well on being reliable.
It seems France, England, and Germany couldn't negotiate things out.
Tasnica (1655 D)
22 Dec 11 UTC
Italy EOG:

Game Start:
This game was several firsts. It was my first Anonymous game, my first WTA (though I technically began a second one on the same day), and my first game as Italy. Anonymous was somewhat troublesome, as I am a firm believer in “know thine enemy” and analyze the past games of my opponents when given the chance (or, in face to face games, simply utilize what I already know about my opponents as people). It was already clear to me that different players had different reputations on the site, and this was the first game where that knowledge was unavailable to me.

WTA, to me, simply means that the rewards for soloing are higher, but so are the penalties for failing to stop a solo. There’s no “safety net” so to speak. A draw, of course, has the same outcome as a PPSC draw. There is simply a greater temptation to solo, due to the higher rewards.

1901-1902:
As this was my first time as Italy, I wanted to keep as many options open as possible. I swiftly made DMZs with France, but my attempts to reach out to England and Russia were ignored. In fact, neither said a word to me all game. It seemed that I would have to find my friends amongst my neighbors.

Things began to develop in a rather unexpected manner when Germany’s first message to me basically told me not to attack Austria, or that I could expect retaliation from him. Communication with Austria revealed that Germany had issued a similar threat to him, and thus the Central Triple was born.

This left Turkey. Our communications were friendly enough, and Austria wanted to ally with him against Russia. I was a little hesitant about this, and even more hesitant about attacking France, particularly since Germany seemed to have little interest in attacking him himself. Ultimately, I chose to be non-committal, which annoyed Turkey and Germany but built up a bit of trust with Austria and France.

1902 came along, and suddenly I was at a complete loss for what to do. Germany wanted me to attack Turkey, Austria wanted me to attack France, France had just build F Mar but insisted it was heading north, and I had no idea which of them to trust.

Ultimately, I decided to attack France, but before I could actually commit myself in that direction, Turkey stabbed Austria. Russia joined in the attack as well. Well, now I knew who I _could_ trust. I knew Austria would be insane to attack me at this point, and both Germany and France were getting set to attack England.

I ignored France and Turkey’s suggestions that I accept that Austria was doomed and join in on the partition, offered my full assistance to Austria, and convoyed an army into Greece. The alternative was to side with Turkey, whom I didn’t trust in the slightest, and by extension Russia, who remained the strong and silent type.

((More))
Tasnica (1655 D)
22 Dec 11 UTC
1903-1904:
My choice in Austria as an ally was swiftly validated, and we began exchanging long and detailed messages planning our strategy against the Juggernaut. We both know that only superior coordination would enable us to survive, and that even then we would probably need some German help. Germany finally moved against Russia in 1903, but his aid was painfully slow.

I sacrificed Greece to get Austria Serbia, but managed to get it back the following year. Turkey and Russia ended up being relatively uncoordinated, and realizing this Turkey approached us with proposals for peace. Our first “agreement” saw attempted stabs all around, and both Austria and I resolved at that point that Turkey had to go. We did manage to convince Turkey to stab Russia in 1904, but as planned we continued to attack him anyway.

It was at this point that Austria and I first began to devise grander schemes. We also concluded that our alliance was going to be a long-term one, both because we worked and communicated so well together and also because we had little trust in any of the other players. Germany, especially, let us down by pulling away from Russia and engaging in minor skirmishes with France. Austria and I agreed that Germany had offered us little but manipulation all game, and that he would not be included in any final draw if either of us had a say in the matter.

1905-1906:
As much as we would have liked to, we couldn’t afford to stab Germany just yet. Turkey and Russia were continuing to put up quite a fight. France and Germany did enter full scale war, though, and I had promised Germany that I would come to his aid, so I sent some token forces westward. This helped to tip the scales a bit, as France really was growing dangerously strong. I wanted Germany defeated, but at the hands of Austria, not France.

1907-1908:
Turkey was _finally_ eliminated, and I moved more strongly against France. Germany grew increasingly paranoid about Austria and I, so the two of us engaged in some fake skirmishes and center exchanges to appease him a little. While I thought that I had managed to earn his trust, he never really trusted Austria.

1909-1910:
Germany refused to finish off Russia, which annoyed Austria and I to no end. Both of us gave it our all trying to convince him to do otherwise, but he wouldn’t budge. After debating whether we should genuinely go for a three-way with him, we decided to have Austria attack Germany while I continued helping him finish off France.

1911-1912:
Our plan came to a grinding halt when Germany began actively aiding France against me. It became clear at this point that, despite my best efforts, Germany never really did trust me. Now we were left with five nations and, more or less, a stalemate line. Austria and I were at a loss for what to do, and even began contemplating having one of us solo the other just to deny the other three the draw.

1913+:
And then France started NMRing. This provided the opening we needed, and France was systematically pushed back. Eventually, I advanced far enough to attack Germany as well, which finally gave Austria something to do. The opposing trio was eliminated in a fairly predictable fashion from that point forward.

The main question for me, then, was what to do about Austria. Austria was among the most competent and reliable allies I had ever had, and despite periods of cooperation with France and Germany I was never able to reach anywhere near that level of trust and respect.

Ultimately, I decided not to stab Austria, though I probably could have pulled it off. I did this for several reasons. Firstly, to honor a very close alliance that had clawed its way out of what had seemed to be a rather dire situation. Secondly, because I genuinely believed that such a strong ally should be rewarded in some fashion. I probably would have been _more_ likely to stab him in a PPSC game, because then I would know that he still would receive a significant fraction of the pot as consolation. Finally, I wanted to establish a reputation of my own as a loyal and reliable ally, even in the long term.

Of course, I am no fool, or at least I like to think that I am not. While I never intended to solo, I made very sure to minimize the opportunities that Austria had to do so himself. Especially as the game came to a close, I maintained garrisons throughout my territory on the off chance that Austria had a truly silver tongue. While my defenses were not perfect, I was rather pleased with the level of defense I was able to establish with minimal threat or provocation to my ally.

And that’s the game.


68 replies
Putin33 (240 D)
22 Dec 11 UTC
GOP cuts off CSPAN cameras
Because they hate criticism and want to hide their hatred of the middle class. Spin this one, Repugs.
38 replies
Open
goldfinger0303 (527 D)
20 Dec 11 UTC
The Masters Tournament
So just a quick update for all those involved
2 replies
Open
erik8asandwich (893 D)
22 Dec 11 UTC
Rome: Total War Again
Hey we just had 4 of the 5 we need. So I am trying it again. JOIN!!

http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=75548
0 replies
Open
Hyperion (1000 D)
21 Dec 11 UTC
Thirsty Tuesday EoG
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=75413
6 replies
Open
fortknox (2059 D)
20 Dec 11 UTC
(+4)
Tolkien fans...
Go to http://maps.google.com/
click 'get directions'
in "A" put "The Shire" and in "B" put "Mordor"
Look at the wording in yellow.
35 replies
Open
gman314 (100 D)
19 Dec 11 UTC
(+2)
Muting Mods
When Thucydides left the site for a bit, he made an announcement on the forum and his mod powers were revoked. Someone suggested the idea of muting him to see what happened when he came back and his mod powers were restored. (You can't mute mods.) So, I did. I have now looked at his profile and discovered that he is now a mod again. However, I cannot unmute him.
6 replies
Open
dave bishop (4552 D)
15 Dec 11 UTC
A Final Game
I doubt many people will remember me, but I used to be quite a keen player on the site. I left almost a year ago now, but am back and determined to organize one final (and hopefully epic) game.
Details inside.
38 replies
Open
zultar (3790 D Mod (P))
21 Dec 11 UTC
(+1)
In need of a medium pot gunboat WTA anon game
Actions, not words
Please join
gameID=75471
0 replies
Open
JesusPetry (100 D)
19 Dec 11 UTC
I've suddenly run out of games...
...so if you're interested on a WTA gunboat, please post here.
19 replies
Open
redhouse1938 (886 D)
20 Dec 11 UTC
H. Kissinger's Associates RETRY
Hello all,
http://www.webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=75379
Classic, Full Press, WTA, 70 D, anon, PM for PW
13 replies
Open
MrcsAurelius (1687 D)
19 Dec 11 UTC
Anybody want to join..? 150 points, WTA, full press..
Looking for serious players, hope to keep it free of NMRs and CDs! Also looking for a challenge and to play people I havent played before.

PM me if you are interested! gameID=75315
25 replies
Open
Yonni (333 D)
19 Dec 11 UTC
Low pot game
Would anyone be interested in a low pot game? 2 days/phase, WTA, non-anon.
21 replies
Open
thatwasawkward (3611 D (B))
21 Dec 11 UTC
Bye, points.
Bid your points fond farewell in a new high-pot gunboat. 1000 D, WTA, 2 day turns.
gameID=75444
4 replies
Open
jjmacsizzle (100 D)
21 Dec 11 UTC
New Game WW1-7
Join my game please
0 replies
Open
jjmacsizzle (100 D)
21 Dec 11 UTC
New game
join my game for a world war one duel to the death
0 replies
Open
Sicarius (738 D)
20 Dec 11 UTC
Vote for PHP Prom King
"You seem to have this impression that people think any more highly of you than they do me. Neither of us is going to win prom king around here. Sorry to break it to you. "
44 replies
Open
pjmansfield99 (60 D)
20 Dec 11 UTC
Problem with IPad....
Anyone else have difficulty with timings on IPad?
12 replies
Open
spyman (424 D (G))
21 Dec 11 UTC
How much do you chat in game?
We seen the stats before about the average number of messages per game. That is one way of looking at it. But some people post lots of short messages, while others write essays. How much do you really write?
3 replies
Open
King Atom (100 D)
21 Dec 11 UTC
Beer...
Wow, I just watched a documentary about how beer is the world's greatest invention...for better reasons than you might suspect.
6 replies
Open
Dharmaton (2580 D)
20 Dec 11 UTC
I wanna complain about this game ;P (I'm Turk...)
enuf said: http://www.webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=75414
9 replies
Open
Yonni (333 D)
20 Dec 11 UTC
(+1)
An education for our American (and other foreign) friends
The Caesar is a fantastic drink. I can understand the knee jerk aversion to clam juice but, god damn, it blows a bloody mary out of the water.
3 replies
Open
Sydney City (0 D X)
20 Dec 11 UTC
replacement turkey needed next phase(is no longer playing)
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=74570
0 replies
Open
President Eden (2803 D)
19 Dec 11 UTC
People of webDiplomacy: What is your MBTI Personality Type/Socionics type?
I'm off today and thinking about the subject because my girlfriend and I talk about this quite a lot, especially in regard to other people, and I've a feeling the implications of it translate well in predicting Diplomacy behavior. So what are you?
64 replies
Open
ericisawesome (0 D X)
19 Dec 11 UTC
New Board???
Diplomacy Map.png
42 replies
Open
ulytau (541 D)
19 Dec 11 UTC
Paying homage to Václav Havel
I'll visit the church with his body tomorrow so feel free to join. Regard this thread as a counterbalance to the thread about Kim Jong-Il. If one of the greatest assholes gets his own thread, the greatest pussy should get it as well.
25 replies
Open
MadMarx (31092 D (G))
17 Dec 11 UTC
MadMarx ABI-VI EoG's
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=69992
30 replies
Open
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