It's difficult to make the case Germany wouldn't have had the lead for long - he controlled all of England, Holland, Denmark, Belgium, and had fleets in North Sea and Norwegian Sea, with Russia not really in any position to defend. Not to mention he had soldiers in France, and was not to far from taking away the French SCs and probably the ones on the Iberian peninsula once he got a fleet down there to help. Not to mention that, as I said, France claimed it was his first game, and I don't believe he understood the support concept, as he would repeatedly move multiple units into the same region, or even his own units into another region with his own units without moving the unit already present in that region