to borrow words (Richard Sharp)...The Octopus combines the powerful A(Mos)—StP with the most violent defence possible in the south. If the very worst happens and Austria and Turkey both attack you, you have saved all your home centres, and the northern powers are likely to take fright and allow you at least one of the Scandinavian centres if not both. In autumn you ignore Rumania again, ordering A(War)—Ukr, F(Sev)—B LA, build A(War) and A(Mos), if you’re lucky, giving you a pretty solid defence.
That’s the defeatist view — preparing for the worst. In fact the real advantage of the Octopus is that neither Turkey nor Austria should take too much offence at those southern moves, as in combination they don’t represent an attack on anyone. And there are many diplomatic possibilities open.
Ideally, you would persuade both Turkey and Austria to allow the moves to succeed. Turkey in particular may as well allow you into the Black Sea, because once he knows you are going there it becomes much less attractive for him to try to attack you (a similar situation arises between France and England over the English Channel — see the Openings section of the England chapter). A stupid Turkey will argue thus: if I let you into the Black Sea and order A(Con)—Bul, F(Ank)—Con, A(Smy) stands I won’t dare to order F(Con)—AES in the autumn because that will give you a fifty-fifty chance of taking Smyrna or Ankara.’ There are two answers to this. The first is quite a nice try-on: ‘If you feel like that, why not order A(Smy)—Ank in the spring, then you can work a self-stand-off in Constantinople in the autumn.’ If Turkey says, 'Yes, fine, why didn’t I think of that?’ you’ve got him cold; you order in the autumn F(BLA) S TURKISH A(Bul)—Con (1) while Austria moves into Bulgaria and you take Rumania ; this is much better than annihilating the Turkish army in Bulgaria, which would allow him to build F(Con). The more sensible answer to Turkey’s whining, however, is, Why would I go for a fifty-fifty guess at one of your centres when I can just take Rumania without annoying anyone?’, to which there is no answer...