MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

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Foxcastle
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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1921 Post by Foxcastle » Fri May 18, 2018 12:18 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 9:20 am
Foxcastle - the way you just backed out of your confrontation with Balki was a bit weird.

I think you should answer the question: Why would scum Balki need an alibi for voting for scum Ike?
Not alibi for voting Ike, I said "plausible deniability", and I meant for not moving his vote in the EOD chaos. Since we're stuck on that particular phrase that I threw out unrealizing of its awesome powers of distraction, let me clarify. (Also, I'm not looking back at what I wrote before, so feel free to seek out all the inconsistencies and contradictions between this and what I wrote in the heat of my frustration at Balki.)

This is all assuming Balki is scum, and Ike is scum, and Balki wants to bus Ike for town cred. My scumread on Balki was prompted by other clues, not by his absence EOD1; the "plausible deniability" sidequest sprung up from seeing if there was a reasonable story in which Balki was scum and missing EOD made sense.

The best outcome for Balki is not actually that Ike gets lynched on D1. The best outcome is closer to what actually happened: Ike is scum, but we mislynch a Townie, so Balki basically banks some towncred for later in the game when Ike actually flips. (But if Ike flips, immediate towncred is fine, too, of course.)

But there's a risk to get to that strategy during the EOD vote chaos, because so much can happen in the last minutes of the day—another scum wagon could come up, a townie could slip up and end up looking too scummy not to lynch, etc. Who knows, maybe even the lead wagon could claim PR! You've seen more of it than I have, Jamiet, so you know. And that creates problems for Balki, who just wants to bus Ike, because while we scrutinize when and why people change their votes at EOD, we always heavily scrutinize decisions not to change a vote.

What I meant by plausible deniability refers to a hypothetical that never quite happened on Day 1: that Balki would need an explanation for why he stayed on Ike when the situation changed, and the easiest explanation for that is "sorry guys, I wasn't around."

It's easy to dismiss that in hindsight because it never happened, but trying to look at it from Balki's perspective in that moment. It's 40 minutes out, Ike is leading with 5 votes, but Peter and Jamiet are both at 3. Plenty of time for something to happen, especially with 3 other scum out there who might try to save Ike. Balki is a smart player and knows Ike is a smart player, so he's probably considered that Ike will claim if he's on the block (it seems like a pretty basic scumplay). But bussing Ike is a good play, so how does Balki avoid getting sucked into the chaos and avoid leaving a trail of actions (or inactions) to be analyzed later? He leaves.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1922 Post by Tom Bombadil » Fri May 18, 2018 12:23 pm

Vote Count 4.2

Balki Bartokomous (3): Foxcastle, Ezio, thamrick
Ezio (3): dargorygel, bo_sox48, Jamiet99uk
Snowy801 (2): DemonRHK, yavuzovic
Thamrick (1): rdrivera2005
Yavuzovic (1): DrCJG
DrCJG (1): snowy801
Jamiet99uk (1): TrPrado
Bo_sox48 (1): peterlund

Currently nobody is set to be lynched

Balki Bartokomous and RagingIke297 have yet to vote.


There are 9.5 hours remaining in D4.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1923 Post by yavuzovic » Fri May 18, 2018 12:55 pm

Hmm, I find his lurking style scummy too but I don't suggest to lynch him. He is standing and not gonna do anything if he continues like how he was until now.

I want to keep my vote on snowy. We, the towns are still the majority but we couldn't lynch a scum and scum's percentage is rising. I think scumteam's effect on wagons saved snowy so far. I think towns shouldn't let this again.

Also Balki is slight scum to me. I will reread him soon. Now, I'm on a way and I won't write much. Also I don't think I can participate EoDs and EoNs during the weekend. I will try to work on the game in mornings. Have fun.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1924 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 18, 2018 1:26 pm

Thank you Foxcastle. I understand what you're saying now.


Balki vs Ezio vs Snowy.

This is interesting.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1925 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 18, 2018 1:44 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 11:33 pm
@RagingIke: That still does not explain how, on Night 1 you could have known the scum were going to play the "long game". You are speaking now on the basis of information that the actual Doctor could not have had on N1. This seems very fishy.
With the number of people that didn't believe my claim, I didn't think it would be a bad thing if I died because of the clarity it would bring.

TrPrado wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 6:35 pm
Ike: Why didn't you reveal who you were intending to save last night?
Still waiting on an answer from Tom, speaking of ##call GM can I get an answer to this: since I was roleblocked can I target the same person tomorrow night?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1926 Post by Foxcastle » Fri May 18, 2018 1:57 pm

Ike, if Tom replies that you can target the same person, what does that mean for what you'll tell us about who you targeted last night?

If Tom says you can target the same person, will you tell us who it was?

If Tom says you cannot target the same person, will you tell us who it was?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1927 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 18, 2018 2:03 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 1:57 pm
Ike, if Tom replies that you can target the same person, what does that mean for what you'll tell us about who you targeted last night?

If Tom says you can target the same person, will you tell us who it was?

If Tom says you cannot target the same person, will you tell us who it was?
It means if Tom says I can target the same person I'll inform everyone of who I targeted last night, if he says I cannot I inform no one of who I targeted last night for their safety.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1928 Post by Tom Bombadil » Fri May 18, 2018 2:07 pm

GM NOTE: To answer the question of doctor/hooker interactions:

Per the Setup Rules regarding the Doctor: the Doctor cannot visit the same player two nights in a row. So if a scenario occurs where the Doctor is roleblocked, they do not visit their intended target, and thus a visit never happens. They could attempt to visit the same person the next night.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1929 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 18, 2018 2:14 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 2:03 pm
Foxcastle wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 1:57 pm
Ike, if Tom replies that you can target the same person, what does that mean for what you'll tell us about who you targeted last night?

If Tom says you can target the same person, will you tell us who it was?

If Tom says you cannot target the same person, will you tell us who it was?
It means if Tom says I can target the same person I'll inform everyone of who I targeted last night, if he says I cannot I inform no one of who I targeted last night for their safety.
Thanks Tom

Last night I attempted to save you Fox. I've been trying to save players with experience since they are normally the ones to go.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1930 Post by rdrivera2005 » Fri May 18, 2018 2:28 pm

I am having a hard time sorting Balki. His defensivenes against Fox seems off, but I still don't think I am ready to vote him.

I still think Thamrick is scum, his attempt to use Xorxes N1 reads and a joke post to base an analysis is a thing I didn't expect from town Thamrick.

If I need to choose between Balki, Ezio and Snowy I will vote Snowy. He will give us more info and even if he is town it's an easy myslinch for the end game.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1931 Post by thamrick » Fri May 18, 2018 2:30 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 2:03 pm
Foxcastle wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 1:57 pm
Ike, if Tom replies that you can target the same person, what does that mean for what you'll tell us about who you targeted last night?

If Tom says you can target the same person, will you tell us who it was?

If Tom says you cannot target the same person, will you tell us who it was?
It means if Tom says I can target the same person I'll inform everyone of who I targeted last night, if he says I cannot I inform no one of who I targeted last night for their safety.
I don't see why it's even relevant. Why are you even revealing past saves in the first place? It just gives scum data points to better guess who you might save later. There's literally no time where revealing your saves will be useful for town.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1932 Post by thamrick » Fri May 18, 2018 2:30 pm

Well nevermind. X post

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1933 Post by thamrick » Fri May 18, 2018 2:31 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 2:28 pm
I am having a hard time sorting Balki. His defensivenes against Fox seems off, but I still don't think I am ready to vote him.

I still think Thamrick is scum, his attempt to use Xorxes N1 reads and a joke post to base an analysis is a thing I didn't expect from town Thamrick.

If I need to choose between Balki, Ezio and Snowy I will vote Snowy. He will give us more info and even if he is town it's an easy myslinch for the end game.
What joke post are you talking about?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1934 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri May 18, 2018 2:34 pm

I like the DRC and Thamrick wagons, so I hope the people there don’t feel like they have to move to Snowy, Ezio, or Balki. There is lots of time left.

I’ll go ##vote DRC for now, but I am near equally inclined to lynch Thamrick today.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1935 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 18, 2018 2:47 pm

thamrick wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 2:30 pm
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 2:03 pm
Foxcastle wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 1:57 pm
Ike, if Tom replies that you can target the same person, what does that mean for what you'll tell us about who you targeted last night?

If Tom says you can target the same person, will you tell us who it was?

If Tom says you cannot target the same person, will you tell us who it was?
It means if Tom says I can target the same person I'll inform everyone of who I targeted last night, if he says I cannot I inform no one of who I targeted last night for their safety.
I don't see why it's even relevant. Why are you even revealing past saves in the first place? It just gives scum data points to better guess who you might save later. There's literally no time where revealing your saves will be useful for town.
Maybe I told the truth there, maybe I use an RNG to decide who to save and it just so happened to be "experienced players" that I rolled. Past saves are not an indicator of future decisions I might make. Point being I'm trying to outplay scum just like they are trying to outplay me.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1936 Post by TrPrado » Fri May 18, 2018 3:39 pm

thamrick wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 2:30 pm
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 2:03 pm
Foxcastle wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 1:57 pm
Ike, if Tom replies that you can target the same person, what does that mean for what you'll tell us about who you targeted last night?

If Tom says you can target the same person, will you tell us who it was?

If Tom says you cannot target the same person, will you tell us who it was?
It means if Tom says I can target the same person I'll inform everyone of who I targeted last night, if he says I cannot I inform no one of who I targeted last night for their safety.
I don't see why it's even relevant. Why are you even revealing past saves in the first place? It just gives scum data points to better guess who you might save later. There's literally no time where revealing your saves will be useful for town.
That’s a bit of a moot concern. And also the reason he didn’t out last night’s save until just now (thanks for answering my question Ike). We had been asking him to out his saves or scans since last night when we demanded his reveal, and we did it explicitly because we knew
A) those are very much PART of a claim, and
B) they’re not any more relevant to scum than they are to town so the harm really isn’t there.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1937 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 18, 2018 3:53 pm

I don't particularly love any of the wagons right now. RHK is trying to get snowy killed as he has been since D2. Prado is trying to get Jamie killed as he has been since D2. Ezio has done nothing. I still think Yav has been acting off, might not be anything. I guess Balki could be the hooker and they RB/NK'ed the same person N1 to give him a soft clear. The more I look at VCA, the more it looks like Balki has been saving snowy. Balki pushed for the Stressed Wagon and got an absolute miracle in Ghug, Snowy and Jamie all flipping, then Balki got on the Telamor wagon reaaaaaaaal late with a few other people and Snowy lives again. Now Balki and Snowy are pushing together on DrCJG. Regardless of his alignment, I could see the scum team taking a sac fly at this point to build some town cred for a couple people.

##vote Balki

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1938 Post by rdrivera2005 » Fri May 18, 2018 3:54 pm

thamrick wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 2:31 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 2:28 pm
I am having a hard time sorting Balki. His defensivenes against Fox seems off, but I still don't think I am ready to vote him.

I still think Thamrick is scum, his attempt to use Xorxes N1 reads and a joke post to base an analysis is a thing I didn't expect from town Thamrick.

If I need to choose between Balki, Ezio and Snowy I will vote Snowy. He will give us more info and even if he is town it's an easy myslinch for the end game.
What joke post are you talking about?
You included two Xorxes quotes, one with his actual N1 reads and one where he emulate a Mafia QT chat that I take as joke specially because he didn't include half of them on his scum list wrote 15 minutes later.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1939 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 18, 2018 3:57 pm

I also don't feel like myself, bozo, stressed, Jamie, snowy, and telamor can all be town. If I can math, the odds that its town v town d1, (57% Chance) town v town v town d2 (37% Chance) and town v town d3 (48% Chance) are are like 10%. I don't like how Jamie and Snowy both flipped to Stressed last second. Snowy did it to save himself which is kinda reasonable, but then he was borderline complaining about being alive when Telamor got lynched over him yesterday. Jamie I think said that he thought he was breaking a tie. I could see Snowy, Jamie and Balki all being scum

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1940 Post by DrCJG » Fri May 18, 2018 4:03 pm

My obviously delayed list now that I am caught up:
Strong townlean
RHK
Balki
Darg
Pet
Townlean
TrP
Fox
Jamie
Null
Rdr
Scumlean
Bo
Sno
Scum
Tham
Ezio
Yav

I am in the process of rereading to see what associations I can make particularly in regard to Ike as well as my strong townleans as I want to see if anything jumps out under the assumption that RHK, Balki, Darg, and Pet are all town.

As I began this process I wanted to see who was most in opposition to RHK, Balki, Darg, and Peter ... I noticed that RHK and Dar have never received any votes, furthermore, I do not believe RHK appears in anyone's scumlean though Dar has been scumread by Rdr (page 91) and Peter (page 96) today... as being hedgey...
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 5:47 pm
I am more and more concerned about Dargo. His vote on Bozo D1 was hedgy, he anchored a vote on Snowy all D2 and on D3 he choosed to lynch Telamor over Snowy. I think he is coasting and it’s my best bet for the deep threat on the scum team. And Jamiet is hard to read in this game, at least to me, I scumread him at times, townread him in others, but at this moment I think he might be scum and this could explain D2.
@Rdr - is it accurate to say you think Dar and Snowy are both scum? I felt this was unlikely as Dar's vote almost lead to Sno's lynching D2. Do you have any other reasons to read Dar as scum?

@ Peter - reasons for reading Dar as scum other than him seeming hedgey?

Balki and Peter on the other hand are not as universally trusted ... while Balki only received a couple votes (Yav D1 and Peter D2, D3) before today, his high activity has led to plenty of scumleans as well as townleans... meanwhile Peter was a wagon D1 and received early voted D2 and D3.

I am doing a deeper dive on both now, the latest complaints on Peter seem to be his emotional reaction... does anyone still scum read him for something more concrete?

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