When to Solo?

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cdngooner
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When to Solo?

#1 Post by cdngooner » Tue May 19, 2020 10:03 pm

I am about to finish a game with an agreed 3-way draw among France (former enemy-turned draw partner) (13 SC's); Turkey (me) (11); and Russia (longtime ally) (10). As a novice player, I am satisfied with the draw.

But my alliance partner Russia has been working so closely with me over the past few game years that he has left himself wide open to me taking up to 3 SC's from him. I'm not going to do to it, partly because I still have trouble with backstabbing people who have been good to you, but mostly because I fear France will ally with Russia and eventually defeat me.

Basically, my calculus is that because France is so strong, even if I could kneecap Russia, I could not beat France also while still fighting Russia. If France were weaker, then I could perhaps risk holding them off while I finished off Russia.

What advice do experienced players have regarding when to go for the solo (risking 2 others ganging up on you), and when to be satisfied with the draw?

AnimalsCS
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Re: When to Solo?

#2 Post by AnimalsCS » Tue May 19, 2020 11:23 pm

Stalemate lines often can determine whether the backstab makes sense or not. Those 3 centers could be on a stalemate line and would make you a solid threat to solo win, or they could be far from a stalemate line and France and Russia could still force you to draw.

I would suggest reading Brother Bored's articles on the topic, probably the most pertinent to you right now being https://brotherbored.com/diplomacy/gunb ... ro/turkey/.
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Squigs44
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Re: When to Solo?

#3 Post by Squigs44 » Tue May 19, 2020 11:25 pm

This article by brother bored actually talks about your very scenario in one of the examples. It really depends on how the board as a whole looks, not on SC counts.
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Tom Bombadil
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Re: When to Solo?

#4 Post by Tom Bombadil » Tue May 19, 2020 11:33 pm

Something I do which helps me is every spring, I write down what centers I am most likely to target to get to 18. So if I've got 12 centers, I write down the 6 most likely to get me to 18. Once you do that, you can think about what moves you would make to go for the solo. If you can see how the other powers can easily defend, then don't go for it. However, if you see that it would be close, you need to pounce as the opportunity doesn't come often.

I also say that when in doubt, go for it. Don't let the fear of it backfiring hold you back. If you have confidence in your skill, even if it backfires, you should be confident you can talk and tactic your way out of it.
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Wintogreen
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Re: When to Solo?

#5 Post by Wintogreen » Wed May 20, 2020 3:38 am

On this note, you should be constantly looking at everyone elses center count, and what centers they would need to solo. If someone has, say, 14 centers and can reasonably get the remaining 4, you need to then drop all of your fighting and align with the other powers to put a stop to the solo before it's too late. Every turn in the late game (when a power has 10+ centers) I look to see what the ideal centers for each power would be, and if it's feasible. This can help immensely in identifying and then thwarting solo attempts by others.

Mercy
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Re: When to Solo?

#6 Post by Mercy » Wed May 20, 2020 3:43 am

In your specific example, cdngooner, there is no risk involved. If you try to go for a solo, the others will probably try to pressure you into accepting a draw, not to defeat you.
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Wintogreen
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Re: When to Solo?

#7 Post by Wintogreen » Wed May 20, 2020 3:46 am

Especially because trying to get arrange a 2 way draw is VERY risky.

Claesar
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Re: When to Solo?

#8 Post by Claesar » Wed May 20, 2020 5:59 am

Mercy wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:43 am
In your specific example, cdngooner, there is no risk involved. If you try to go for a solo, the others will probably try to pressure you into accepting a draw, not to defeat you.
I agree.

Following Tom's advice though, I don't see how this could ever become a Turkish solo.

cdngooner
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Re: When to Solo?

#9 Post by cdngooner » Wed May 20, 2020 11:55 am

This is excellent advice. I particularly appreciated the links to articles by Brother Bored.

I have learned I have to learn a lot more about stalemate lines. I understand the concept - I just have trouble seeing them in a real-game context.

TemplarsBane
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Re: When to Solo?

#10 Post by TemplarsBane » Wed May 20, 2020 1:04 pm

I hope you try to put them into practice in another game in the future! But not in the game you and I are both in that you're publicly posting about for all to see :P
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cdngooner
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Re: When to Solo?

#11 Post by cdngooner » Wed May 20, 2020 1:57 pm

Of course not in this game. As I said, that game is nearly over (just waiting for two dead countries to finalize their defenseless orders); and as I also said, I wouldn't do it in this game.

But I take your point about not posting while a game is ongoing. It was just something I wanted to ask the community about, and was afraid I would forget after this game finally drags to a finish.

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