M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

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bozotheclown
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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3421 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:28 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:26 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:49 pm
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:31 pm

I sincerely disagree that Bunny could be Scum (excluding Patient Zero).

It was a very important day for mafia. They were winning. Two mislynches in a row. Town was off track and flailing around. And Scum had at least one really strong counter wagon (EMC, and maybe Chaqa too).

To make matters even more ripe, nobody had much in the thread anchoring them to Bob or EMC, right? Both were low-volume posters. There were plenty of available easy reasons to go to either wagon. Scum!Bunny could have freely and easily voted to lynch EMC. No questions asked. Everyone had freedom because those two wagons were basically lurker wagons of equal suspicion.

Under these circumstances, with a dynamic, 7-6 vote that honestly I still thought was going to flip back the other way right up until the last second, I do not expect a bus. It was too important and too easy for scum to win that vote. I don't believe they would hand that vote to town when they didn't have to do so. And they didn't.

I encourage people to focus on the folks to voted for EMC on Day 3.
OK, but as I pointed out, damo and kgray are the only remaining players who did not vote for Bob at some point D3, so unless they are the 2 mafia who knew Bob was mafia, at least one mafia was knowingly bussing Bob at some point D3, even though they may not have ended voting for him. Do you think it is more likely someone bussed Bob during D3 but switched to emc by EOD than someone bussed Bob and kept their vote on him? Or, do you think damo and kgray are the most likely mafia who knew Bob was mafia?
So, let's talk terminology for a moment, because it actually matters to the substance.

"Bussing," to me, means voting to kill. Throwing someone under the bus. If someone was scum, who knew Bob was scum, and was one of the 7 voting to kill him, that is a "bus." They threw Bob under the bus strategically to try to look more town.

I don't think that happened, and I think we should play the averages here and assume it didn't happen, at least for the next vote.

"Distancing," to me, is actively trying to put stuff in the thread between you and your scum teammate to make it look, once one of you flips, like the other guy is not town. But it stops short of bussing, because you really don't want to vote to kill the person you are distancing from. You are just trying to essentially put little clues in the thread that say "Hey look, me and Bob aren't on the same team," even though you really want to avoid Bob being lynched.

I would expect some distancing on Day 3, or I at least wouldn't be surprised by it. Fox's vote pattern fits the classic profile for distancing. Cast a vote without any push or case for your scumbuddy, but then if that scumbuddy actually gets in trouble and gets close to being lynched, try to save them.

I don't expect Day 3 Bussing. I do expect Day 3 Distancing.
I was referring to any voting for a scum teammate as bussing, but I think you answered my question.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3422 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:54 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:06 pm
What makes me really astonished is kgray can see things a lot clearer and exact to the point then Balki, the Great that tried to give a lecture and made some assumptions that were never valid here on webdip Mafia.
Nothing astonishing at all. Kgray is smart. I’m not insulted by your comparison.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3423 Post by kgray » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:58 pm

Fluminator wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:17 pm
One mislynch left.
And if that happens, town will want to no-lynch the next day in many cases.
And if we had lynched town D3 and D4, we'd already be out of mislynches?

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3424 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:05 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:53 pm
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:19 pm
xorxes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:14 pm
One of rivera or Fox is scum. I think rivera, but I could be wrong. They could both be scum if one is patient zero, but I doubt they are both the "knowing" scum.
Let's say one is town though. How on earth does the one who is town not suspect the other one?
I am town and I suspected Fox, but I thought his exchange with you could be TxT. Fox had many chances to retract from fighting you (as I expected him to do, even asked him) and he kept pushing hard.
Sure, but I don’t think it’s a good idea to draw a conclusion from that now. I mean...I called him out earlier for town reading me and avoiding confrontation. Once I did that, I don’t think it’s a good idea to draw a further conclusion when it’s so easy for him to consciously reverse course.

I don’t see anything in Fox’s response to me that is particularly readable. Haven’t really seen much raw emotion from Fox. His voting record is hideous. He wanted to lynch EMC when ScumBob was the other wagon. Then the next day, he’d rather lynch two Bob voters (Balki and Xorx) than his own D3 vote (EMC).

Obviously, the EMC flip is bad for mafia if they voted to their win condition on D3, so it’s just pretty darn simple folks.

Seriously, we have some extraordinarily non-intuitive townies in this game. And I am apparently unable to communicate with them.

I hereby deputize Kgray to translate obvious, basic mafia theory to my teammates.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3425 Post by kgray » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:50 pm

kgray wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:58 pm
Fluminator wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:17 pm
One mislynch left.
And if that happens, town will want to no-lynch the next day in many cases.
And if we had lynched town D3 and D4, we'd already be out of mislynches?
Okay, I'm pretty sure this is right. If someone (I don't care if it's Flum) can confirm, that'd be good though.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3426 Post by damo666 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:14 am

kgray wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:27 pm
damo666 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:25 pm
There are 2 scum in rdr Fox Jamie kgray Chaqa
Could you give some explanations for your reads for once? This is literally just everyone who voted for emc Day 3 besides you.
Yes it is and 9f these I think Chaqa and Jamie town so that leaves 2 from 3. And you are probably one of them

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3427 Post by BunnyGo » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:21 am

I'm so sorry, I'm fortunate not to have lost my job yet, but between that and homeschooling two little kids, it's good, but mafia has been taking a back seat.

OK, quick summary of my thoughts having seen the results and a quick skim:

1) I need to take a closer look at why there was such a big Xorxes wagon. I really wish the other leading wagon had been from the EMC wagon. So I need to figure out what the read is to overrule that. I hope it's interesting.
2) Town seems demoralized. We need a pep talk. We need to feel good about our position, and how we're gonna work together. Enough of the infighting and backbiting! Enough talk of "kill me, I want out of these morons" and "YOU ALL SUCK WE ALREADY LOST".

PLAY LIKE YOU CAN WIN PEOPLE!! And PLAY LIKE YOUR TEAMMATES ARE TRYING TO WIN TOO!!! We all are trying. So count on us to do it.

3) There seems like there was a lot of EOD4 talk, but not a lot of movement. I'll need to think about what EMC flipping town means for D3 EOD. If anybody wants to save me mental time and space, I'd appreciate it...

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3428 Post by BunnyGo » Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:22 am

Fluminator wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:17 pm
One mislynch left.
And if that happens, town will want to no-lynch the next day in many cases.
This calculation isn't completely obvious to me. Yes if we mislynch 2 then it is 3 scum to 3 town, and that's normally a scum win.

BUT one scum doesn't know the others. It is technically possible that the 3 town could play nega-mafia and convince the traitor to vote for his teammates. It'd have to happen twice...so that's not likely.

So if we get a lynch correct and 2 wrong then It is 2-2 (with 1 scum the traitor) we could pull it off still. It's hard, but doable.

See town, HAVE HOPE!

Never give up, and never surrender.


So the question is, if we get 1 good lynch tomorrow, and mislynch the next day, should we hold to bring it to 3-2 and need 2 in a row? or should we go for a lynch and either bring it to 3-1 or 2-2?

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3429 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:57 am

Okay, I appreciate the positive vibes. I kind of brought a bad attitude to this game, and it's unhelpful. I apologize, and I'll stop being a pompous jerk.

I love you all. I am delighted to be here.

Let's catch scum and win.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3430 Post by damo666 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:22 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:22 am
Fluminator wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:17 pm
One mislynch left.
And if that happens, town will want to no-lynch the next day in many cases.
This calculation isn't completely obvious to me. Yes if we mislynch 2 then it is 3 scum to 3 town, and that's normally a scum win.

BUT one scum doesn't know the others. It is technically possible that the 3 town could play nega-mafia and convince the traitor to vote for his teammates. It'd have to happen twice...so that's not likely.

So if we get a lynch correct and 2 wrong then It is 2-2 (with 1 scum the traitor) we could pull it off still. It's hard, but doable.

See town, HAVE HOPE!

Never give up, and never surrender.


So the question is, if we get 1 good lynch tomorrow, and mislynch the next day, should we hold to bring it to 3-2 and need 2 in a row? or should we go for a lynch and either bring it to 3-1 or 2-2?
At 3 all everyone hardclaims known mafia lol

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3431 Post by damo666 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:23 am

Pr unknown I suppose

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3432 Post by damo666 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:25 am

@Balki you have written an awful lot about Fox and I feel swamped.

Could you provide a short summary of why you think he is scum.

Thanks.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3433 Post by damo666 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:23 am

D3 voting hypothesis: patient zero voted for Bob, the other 2 scum voted EMC.

Bob voters still alive: Xorxes Bozo Bunny Balki flum
EMC voters; Damo rdr Jamie kgray Fox chaqa

So from a town Bob voter pov there are 4×15=60 possible scumteams.
From town EMC voters pov there are 10×5=50 possible scumteams.

In my next post I will endeavour to narrow the possibilities from mpov by reads.

I would encourage other townsfolk to do likewise.

In fact if all town do this and svum refrain the game will be solved (ho ho).

Seriously though, have a go.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3434 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:33 pm

@Damo, why on earth would you guess that Patient Zero voted for Bob?

(1) It’s certainly possible. It’s possible either way. Patient Zero most likely did not know the alignment of the wagons, so he or she could have been either place. So why assume they are one place or the other?

(2) I think Fox is scum because

(a) His Day 3 voting is exactly what I’d expect from Scum Fox. He tries to subtly persuade people to hop off the Bob wagon, he casts a vote for Bob well before the deadline to suggest to the thread he’s willing to lynch Bob, but then when it becomes clear this is going to be close between Town and Scum, he votes to lynch Town.

(b) He calls me his top Town read, at a time when I would expect Town!Fox to be much more paranoid of me, and then just flips his read to Scum!Balki when I tell him that.

(c) He wanted to lynch EMC on Day 3, but then on Day 4, after Bob flipped Scum, he tried hard to lynch Bob voters, instead of focusing on people who were on the EMC wagon, and instead of his D3 vote EMC himself. Obviously scum were happy to see Town waste a mislynch on EMC, but if Scum were mostly voting EMC on D3, they didn’t want EMC to flip D4 because it makes them all look bad.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3435 Post by Foxcastle » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:46 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:21 pm
I just thought of something.

I hope it’s true!
I'm curious what this was and if it was true.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3436 Post by damo666 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:21 pm

@Balki

You are of course quite right, patient zero could have been on either wagon. Don't know why I assumed the Bob wagon!

So assuming no bussers

from TownBobVoter pov 80 poss scum teams

from townEMCvoter pov 60 poss scum teams

MPOV coming up

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3437 Post by damo666 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:37 pm

Of the 5 Bob voters remaining the only spot I do not townread is Flum.

Of the 5 on emc (excl me) I town read Jamie and Chaqa

So:

imo the scum team is Flum + 2 from (rdr kgray Fox) or it is rdr kgray and Fox

The most likely deepscum I am misreading as town is probably Jamie but I am happy with the above conclusion.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3438 Post by Chaqa » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:54 pm

damo666 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:22 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:22 am
Fluminator wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:17 pm
One mislynch left.
And if that happens, town will want to no-lynch the next day in many cases.
This calculation isn't completely obvious to me. Yes if we mislynch 2 then it is 3 scum to 3 town, and that's normally a scum win.

BUT one scum doesn't know the others. It is technically possible that the 3 town could play nega-mafia and convince the traitor to vote for his teammates. It'd have to happen twice...so that's not likely.

So if we get a lynch correct and 2 wrong then It is 2-2 (with 1 scum the traitor) we could pull it off still. It's hard, but doable.

See town, HAVE HOPE!

Never give up, and never surrender.


So the question is, if we get 1 good lynch tomorrow, and mislynch the next day, should we hold to bring it to 3-2 and need 2 in a row? or should we go for a lynch and either bring it to 3-1 or 2-2?
At 3 all everyone hardclaims known mafia lol
Next-level, I like it

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3439 Post by Chaqa » Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:12 pm

damo666 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:37 pm
Of the 5 Bob voters remaining the only spot I do not townread is Flum.

Of the 5 on emc (excl me) I town read Jamie and Chaqa

So:

imo the scum team is Flum + 2 from (rdr kgray Fox) or it is rdr kgray and Fox

The most likely deepscum I am misreading as town is probably Jamie but I am happy with the above conclusion.
So you think xorxes and Balki are town?

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#3440 Post by Chaqa » Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:13 pm

I think:
Patient Zero -> xorxes
Scum: Fox and {Flum or Jamie}

Pretty sure rivera and damo are town. Kgray is probably getting the "noob" benefit of a townread, but could be deep cover. If so, we probably lose.

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