Coronavirus

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orathaic
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Re: Coronavirus

#161 Post by orathaic » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:48 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:45 am
Ora, the Imperial College modelling is extremely clear. Once suppression methods are relaxed the virus bounces back. Stopping the virus in its tracks globally with suppression methods isn't going to happen.
I'm pretty sure that was modelling and mitigation.

Suppression, where there is no human-to-human transmission (globally), does not result in a bounce back.

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Re: Coronavirus

#162 Post by Octavious » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:37 pm

That's not my understanding. If you can point to the part of the study that supports your view please do so, but I don't think it exists.

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Re: Coronavirus

#163 Post by orathaic » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:38 am

I actually quoted it already. They explicitly say, suppression is like with SARS, which is no longer transmitted from human to human.

The mitigation strategy just reduces demand on the healthcare system to a more manageable level, and approaches herd immunity. Constant infections, varying in intensity with the measures taken.

Suppression meanwhile hopes to wipe out the disease, whether that requires waiting for a vaccine to bring the R0 down to less than 1
2

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Re: Coronavirus

#164 Post by Octavious » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:31 am

orathaic wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:33 am
But if we can replicate China's success, and then redistribute expertise and equipment to the virus hot spots, then hopefully we can delay with a minimum of disruption. (compared to the mitigation strategy, where you get ~9 months of repeated interventions, spending 6 of those 9 months in lockdown...)
This, you mean? That's not what the study says. With suppression it is modelled to come back once suppression methods are lifted. It is also far too early to call the Chinese efforts a success, even if you assume that they've broken the habit of a lifetime and are actually being honest about their figures for once. Suppression is not the minimum disruption method, but the maximum disruption method. The benefits of which are simply that more lives are hoped to be saved whilst we wait for a vaccine to accelerate natural levels of immunity.

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Re: Coronavirus

#165 Post by orathaic » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:46 am

I'll be honest, that is not how I read the paper. What you are calling suppression efforts is what I read as the maximum mitigation effort.

Again, suppression is not about trying to get to maximum immunity. It doesn't matter if there is immunity if you end of human-to-human transmission. Because once the virus is completely suppressed you don't need immunity (or a vaccine) but getting there requires considerable efforts (which are reduced by the herd immunity levels, and/or vaccine availability).

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A National Scandal

#166 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:49 am

While Octavious desperately beats the drum for his Tory idols, the plain fact is that the UK's response has been bungled, late, inadequate, incompetent.

Here are extracts from the powerful words of Richard Horton in The Lancet, perhaps the world's most eminent medical journal:

"“When this is all over, the NHS England board should resign in their entirety.” So wrote one National Health Service (NHS) health worker last weekend. The scale of anger and frustration is unprecedented, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the cause. The UK Government's Contain–Delay–Mitigate–Research strategy failed. It failed, in part, because ministers didn't follow WHO's advice to “test, test, test” every suspected case. They didn't isolate and quarantine. They didn't contact trace. These basic principles of public health and infectious disease control were ignored, for reasons that remain opaque. The UK now has a new plan—Suppress–Shield–Treat–Palliate. But this plan, agreed far too late in the course of the outbreak, has left the NHS wholly unprepared for the surge of severely and critically ill patients that will soon come.

"England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Jenny Harries, said on March 20, 2020: “The country has a perfectly adequate supply of PPE.” She claimed that supply pressures had now been “completely resolved”. I am sure Dr Harries believed what she said. But she was wrong and she should apologise to the thousands of health workers who still have no access to WHO-standard PPE. I receive examples daily of doctors having to assess patients with respiratory symptoms but who do so without the necessary PPE to complete their jobs safely. Health workers are challenged if they ask for face masks. Even where there is PPE, there may be no training. WHO standards are not being met. Proper testing of masks is being omitted. Stickers with new expiry dates are being put on PPE that expired in 2016. Doctors have been forced to go to hardware stores to buy their own face masks.

"Patients with suspected COVID-19 are mixing with non-COVID-19 patients. The situation is so dire that staff are frequently breaking down in tears. As one physician wrote, “The utter failure of sound clinical leadership will lead to an absolute explosion of nosocomial COVID-19 infection.” Front-line staff are already contracting and dying from the disease.

"The NHS has been wholly unprepared for this pandemic. It's impossible to understand why. Based on their modelling of the Wuhan outbreak of COVID-19, Joseph Wu and his colleagues wrote in The Lancet on Jan 31, 2020: “On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic…for health protection within China and internationally…preparedness plans should be readied for deployment at short notice, including securing supply chains of pharmaceuticals, personal protective equipment, hospital supplies, and the necessary human resources to deal with the consequences of a global outbreak of this magnitude.” This warning wasn't made lightly. It should have been read by the Chief Medical Officer, the Chief Executive Officer of the NHS in England, and the Chief Scientific Adviser. They had a duty to immediately put the NHS and British public on high alert. February should have been used to expand coronavirus testing capacity, ensure the distribution of WHO-approved PPE, and establish training programmes and guidelines to protect NHS staff. They didn't take any of those actions. The result has been chaos and panic across the NHS. Patients will die unnecessarily. NHS staff will die unnecessarily. It is, indeed, as one health worker wrote last week, “a national scandal”. The gravity of that scandal has yet to be understood."

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Re: Coronavirus

#167 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:51 am

THIS is what you get with Boris and Dom in charge.

THIS is what you get after 10 years of Tory government eroding, undermining, and slowly privatising our NHS.

People will die unnecessarily due to the incompetence of our current "leaders". It is indeed a national scandal.

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Re: Coronavirus

#168 Post by Octavious » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:15 pm

Never one to let a good crisis go to waste, eh Jamie?

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Re: Coronavirus

#169 Post by Octavious » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:36 pm

To quote from ICL

"The report details that for the first scenario (slowing the spread), the optimal policy would combine home isolation of cases, home quarantine and social distancing of those over 70 years. This could reduce the peak healthcare demand by two-thirds and reduce deaths by half. However, the resulting epidemic would still likely result in an estimated 250,000 deaths and therefore overwhelm the health system (most notably intensive care units).

In the second scenario (suppressing the outbreak), the researchers show this is likely to require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members (and possible school and university closure). The researchers explain that by closely monitoring disease trends it may be possible for these measures to be relaxed temporarily as things progress, but they will need to be rapidly re-introduced if/when case numbers rise. They add that the situation in China and South Korea in the coming weeks will help to inform this strategy further.

Professor Azra Ghani, Chair in Infectious Disease Epidemiology from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, said: “The current situation with the COVID-19 pandemic is evolving rapidly; governments and societies therefore need to be flexible in responding the challenges it poses. Our results indicate that widescale social distancing measures, that are likely to have a major impact on our day-to-day lives, are now necessary to reduce further spread and prevent our health system being overwhelmed. Close monitoring will be required in the coming weeks and months to ensure that we minimise the health impact of this disease.”

Professor Christl Donnelly, Professor of Statistical Epidemiology within J-IDEA, said: “The challenges we collectively face are daunting. However, our work indicates if a combination of measures are implemented, then transmission can be substantially reduced. These measures will be disruptive but uncertainties will reduce over time, and while we await effective vaccines and drugs, these public health measures can reduce demands on our healthcare systems.”"



That seems clear as day to me, Ora. Suppression is battening down the hatches until a medical treatment, probably in the form of a vaccine, is brought into play. There is no suggestion of suppression killing off the virus.

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Re: Coronavirus

#170 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:56 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:15 pm
Never one to let a good crisis go to waste, eh Jamie?
It is a crisis being made worse by the inept handling and initial failure to act of Boris and his cabinet, as the Lancet report clearly describes.

In the past week we had a jazzy press story about how we were ordering ventilators from James Dyson, who has never manufactured them before, whilst at the same time UK health equipment companies who *already* manufacture ventilators are reporting that they have contacted the Department of Health offering to increase production, and have been ignored or told to go away.
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Re: Coronavirus

#171 Post by orathaic » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:37 pm

That seems clear as day to me, Ora. Suppression is battening down the hatches until a medical treatment, probably in the form of a vaccine, is brought into play. There is no suggestion of suppression killing off the virus.


Fair enough, perhaps I misread some of it.

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Re: Coronavirus

#172 Post by flash2015 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:59 pm

In other news, Trump still appears to not be taking the virus seriously. Claims in an interview with Hannity that NY projections for ventilator requirements are wrong:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/2 ... rus-151311

I hope they are wrong. I hope it doesn't get as bad as projected. But Trump appears to be basing his opposition to these estimates on a "hunch". This is not how you should work in a crisis like this, especially with potentially tens of thousands of lives at stake in NYC (kind of important to me as I live here and my wife has respiratory issues).

He also suggested in a Fox interview that what Governors get from the Federal Government depends on how nice they are to him. That is not how this works. Unfortunately we are likely to get through this crisis not because of anything Trump has done but in spite of his attempts to derail the response. Thankfully he does have at least a few sane people around him (like Fauci) and while I don't like Pence he largely appears to be saying the right things.
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Re: Coronavirus

#173 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:55 am

flash2015 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:59 pm
In other news, Trump still appears to not be taking the virus seriously. Claims in an interview with Hannity that NY projections for ventilator requirements are wrong:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/2 ... rus-151311

I hope they are wrong. I hope it doesn't get as bad as projected. But Trump appears to be basing his opposition to these estimates on a "hunch". This is not how you should work in a crisis like this, especially with potentially tens of thousands of lives at stake in NYC (kind of important to me as I live here and my wife has respiratory issues).

He also suggested in a Fox interview that what Governors get from the Federal Government depends on how nice they are to him. That is not how this works. Unfortunately we are likely to get through this crisis not because of anything Trump has done but in spite of his attempts to derail the response. Thankfully he does have at least a few sane people around him (like Fauci) and while I don't like Pence he largely appears to be saying the right things.
Hopefully Trump will catch the virus himself.

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Re: Coronavirus

#174 Post by Octavious » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:33 am

Or not, even. Seriously, Jamie, your twat levels are at something of a high water mark at the moment.

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Re: Coronavirus

#175 Post by orathaic » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:21 am

Estimates from the FIH suggest over a million cases in the US (12 times the detected rate) http://epidemicforecasting.org/?selection=united+states

The UK estimate meanwhile is 350k, or 25 times the detected rate.

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Re: Coronavirus

#176 Post by orathaic » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:28 am

Also, why?

The attorney general of Texas on Friday issued a legal opinion deeming gun stores "essential services" during the pandemic

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Re: Coronavirus

#177 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:00 pm

Octavious wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:33 am
Or not, even. Seriously, Jamie, your twat levels are at something of a high water mark at the moment.
I don't care if Donald Trump lives or dies and honestly have a preference for the latter. If you think that makes me a bad person, I don't care. He is a horrible, nasty, obnoxious man whose decisions in power have already harmed countless people, for real. The virus would be doing humanity a favour if it removes him not only from office but life.

I'm not sorry in the slightest for saying that.

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Re: Coronavirus

#178 Post by flash2015 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:00 pm

I am usually not a person to wish bad things on someone else...no matter how much I dislike the person but with how Donald Trump is handling this crisis it is becoming really, really tough...not to mention with the actions of his associated disinformation machine.

Look at what Giuliani did now:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/twitter-d ... v-whitmer/

A big problem with Trump saying that cloroquine/hydroxycloroquine is a "game changer" is that it has now caused a run on supplies with every man and his dog asking doctors for a prescription for it. People who actually need it (like people with lupus and other auto-immune diseases) aren't actually able to get it. And we still as of now have little other than anecdotal evidence that these drugs makes any difference at all (Giuliani claims it has 100% effectiveness).

So the Governor in Michigan is quite rightly trying to restrict these off-label prescriptions. Since the Michigan governor is a critic of the presidential response (and justifiably so), Trump's minions are trying to paint this policy as mindless hatred of Trump causing people to die. This is dangerous nonsense...and given the seriousness of the situation I would argue that stuff like this crosses the line. It is more than "politics as usual" and "owning the libs, lol", it crosses into the world of downright evil. These jokers need to be f***** gone November.
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Re: Coronavirus

#179 Post by Octavious » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:42 pm

Bit of good news to improve the mood.

The Royal Voluntary Service has had to pause recruitment after being overwhelmed by 750,000 new volunteers.

Tinkerty tonk, and down with the Lurgy!

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Re: Coronavirus

#180 Post by Jamiet99uk » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:28 pm

Today UK government minister, Michael Gove, gave the daily briefing to journalists on the current situation, and apparently lied to them about why the UK is not testing more people. He claimed there was a shortage of the necessary chemicals. Meanwhile the UK's chemical industry says that isn't true, and nor has the Government asked them to increase production of the necessary chemicals!

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-31/rob ... gredients/

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