Some analysis for Russia

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naked
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Some analysis for Russia

#1 Post by naked » Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:00 pm

First a short preface:

I think the most important thing a russian player has to understand is:
R lives and dies in the south!

R doesnt need gains in the north at the start. Just keeping S.P. in the
early game is a big thing for achieving a solo. If R looses S.P. it can
later go for a retake. Even if R never gets S.P. back he can easily get
a draw. But for all the good things to happen R needs a good run in
the south. If R gets defeated in the south there is no comming back.

Now to some analysis:

My analysis is for R and for sure not complete. After some point it is
simply too much writing for my taste.

http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=242430

spring 1901:

Opening moves pretty normal, except A not moving Tri-Alb, which is
good for R + T (which should be default). Also E moving to Yor and
not Edi limits his options in the scandinavins.

autumn 1901:

E moves worst case for R. G moves worst case for R. It should be
clear after one year A is playing weak. staying in Tri in spring is
dubious, in autumn just bad. not moving with Ser is just awful. I is
also playing bad (moving to Gre looks bad to me, staying in Ven in
spring is suboptimal).

The build in Mos is without an alternative.

builds 1901:

Now R is in a very difficult position. E is going big for S.P, but R
also has to think about his south. The english attack on R is very
commiting. If R is capable to defend for one year versus E, E is in
big trouble. E cannot afford the resources to fight R without gains,
because this gives F the premium plan of invading the west of E.
But R also has a resource problem. Fighting for S.P. makes life very
easy for A. It is very good for R that A only got one build. Versus a
normal A + I with a two build A there would be no choice. R would
simply have to go south and leave S.P. Here R can think about
delaying the movement Mos to Ukr. But defending S.P.is also not
easy. If E goes all in for S.P. it is a guessing game. What is best ? I
have no clue. It depends on a lot of estimates, but with R: if in
doubt go south. There is only one scenario which looks really awful
to me if R simply givees up S.P.: A good working E + G, with an
english tank in S.P. and two german tank going for War. Probability:
ultra low.

spring 1902:

Ok, now it is clear all opponents in the south are bad. T going for
Rum makes no sense to me. Even if T gets Rum what comes next ?
R will defend SEV, A will push for Rum, Bul and possible Gre
(depends on I). With a growing T I never has the option fighting A.
I has to go for T. No way that fighting three guys is good for T. But
that was the good case with T getting Rum. If T doesnt get Rum, he
only can hope that R understands that he has no other option than
staying with T(, if T stops attacking R). E moving to Nor instead of
Eng seems bad to me. This give F an important tempo for a possible
attack on E. Securing Nor makes only sense to me if G moves to Nor (probability: very low) and gets an advantage out of it. To me this
would mean G can convoy a tank to the isle. This will not happen.
Yes G gets Edi (with a fleet) but after this E will fight G with all he
has giving R + F a sweet life, with lots of options like F helping E
defending, F collecting more of E than G, F attacking G on the
mainland, R escalating in the scandinavian.

autumn 1902:
North is a very happy surprising result. T makes me speechless.
There is no way he gets Sev. Only a war between I + A puts some
sense to turkish moves and there is no sign showing this. Instead
there is a clear path for I to turkish mainland.

--------------------------------------------------
Ok, i will shorten this now. The game is pretty weak. Loosing Sev
is the clear first mistake i see for R. Dont know why you didnt
defend it. T moves should make it clear that he has no strategy
except the next SC. Cant say for sure but i guess i would have
gone south in 1902. Looking at the rest of the game it is a miracle
that R as part of the Draw. Seems clear to me that A + I + T poor
play is a big part of this result.

naked
Posts: 25
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:16 am
Karma: 4

Re: Some analysis for Russia

#2 Post by naked » Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:01 pm

http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=243866

autumn 1901:

i dont like War to Mos. I would suggest thinking about your
situation and what are your priorities. To me it is clear R
first has to defend versus T (T attacks R), denying him gains
hoping that T gets the message that there is no progress
for him attacking R. No progress always means a step backward.
With your moves in SEV and Ukr (which i like) + a sure build
in Mos your defense is stable. But R can do more. A tank in
Gal can fight for Rum, first versus T and after T (hopefully)
switches his plan to fight versus A. Also i dont think you do
anything to start war with A (which you dont really want right
now with T attacking you). If I attacks A, A will accept the
tank in Gal as R most likely is fighting for Rum and A doesnt
want a two way war. If I doesnt attack A, A will go for Gal
+ Rum anyway. I dont think R has any disadvantage going for
Gal. Does R want more troops north ? Only if R likes two way
wars. Also dont forget: Russia lives and dies in the south!
Optimizing your probabilities in the south helps your game
much more than starting a war in the north.

your question:
Here's my question. Regarding this game, I have this feeling
that a better player would have solo'd. Everything seemed to
go my way in this one. Can you see where I could have done
things differently, or in a different order to set myself up
for 18 ?

To me this doesnt look like an russian solo. If you really
want it keep playing, but it should be an easy draw. What
do you need for a solo? The southern stalemate line and
some part of the northern stalemate line. In the game you
got some part of the northern line right before the end
and i dont see how you could have done it faster. But the
real problem is in the south. If you dont control Ion I
has an easy defense. I dont see how you can get control
of Ion without other big drawbacks. You would have to build
lots of fleets and I gets the message some years before
the war even starts. All the resources you use for that
would be missing somewhere else and I has options to react.

Doug7878
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Re: Some analysis for Russia

#3 Post by Doug7878 » Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:24 pm

Thank you very much for taking the time to respond so thoughtfully.

mhsmith0
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Re: Some analysis for Russia

#4 Post by mhsmith0 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:39 pm

Hey this game looks familiar! :P

Doug7878
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Re: Some analysis for Russia

#5 Post by Doug7878 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:12 pm

Hello, France !

Kingdroid
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Re: Some analysis for Russia

#6 Post by Kingdroid » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:29 pm

dont really like that i was in both of these lmao.

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