Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

[Balki Bartokomous]

I skimmed damian's play from M33 where he was town. I was also in that game but didn't remember him much. But his style is pretty different. I don't know what he looks like as scum, but his play here doesn't look like a rusty version of his play in M33. It's more banter and more jokey. It's possible that he's been out of things long enough (a year) that he's just awkward on reentry, or it's possible he's just awkward as scum. Also, he's consistent; if it's rust, it's gone deep, because he's got the 2nd most posts, but it's the same tone as when he started.

Squigs seems much more pointed than he's been in previous games. Sorry you didn't enjoy being a PR in my game, Squigs, but I really hope that experience wasn't so traumatic as to reset your whole meta...

Also, on Squigs' point on people getting towncred for stupid plans. Scum have done this recently—I think it was teacher (or was it thamrick?) a few games ago who had some "everyone make hypothetical claims" scheme that got some discussion, but was a scum ploy to try to out the tracker. But mostly, I think bad ideas come from townies who are grasping for some plan. Scum want to remain unobtrusive, and faking elaborate plans run the risk that either their scheme will be exposed as anti-town, or it will actually work. Point being: I don't think two scum would run two bad ideas by town on the same day. Looking at those, Ezio's seems most out of character, (which I don't know if that makes it more or less likely that he's scum) but what I take from this is that Ezio and Bozo are not scum together.

I would think Xorxes, Vecna, and Ezio would object to Balki casting himself as the Pied Piper of Hamelin... Balki, are you saying that only rats and children follow you?

Look at Foxcastle do backflips to suggest that Ezio and Bozo are not scum together.

And look at him fling low-key shade at Damian and Squigs.

[Balki Bartokomous]

This post from Damian on page 7 is aging quite well.

He town reads Xorxes and Vecna, which I am thinking is probably right at this point in time.

He town reads Tom, and notes ND is asking good questions. Obviously both those guys are town.

Throws a bit of suspicion at Balki and Foxy, and I can understand why.

I'm liking Damian a bit more.

Cross post. []VOTE Balki then

Can you explain?

You disagree with my reasoning? Why? Something else?

[xorxes]

This post from Damian on page 7 is aging quite well.

He town reads Xorxes and Vecna, which I am thinking is probably right at this point in time.

He town reads Tom, and notes ND is asking good questions. Obviously both those guys are town.

Throws a bit of suspicion at Balki and Foxy, and I can understand why.

I'm liking Damian a bit more.

Cross post. []VOTE Balki then

Can you explain?

You disagree with my reasoning? Why? Something else?

I don't think you would townread someone for townreading a lot of confirmed townies early D1.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I'm running out of time to wrap up my colour experiment. The results have been mildly disappointing. I didn't get any of the reactions that would have been really revealing. Aggressively refusing to answer the question or, clumping around a single answer.

Still here are the results.
Special Snowflake: Flum, Balki, Ghug,
Normal Colour: Squig, Tom
Posted But Ignored the Question: Bozo, Vecna, Rdriveria, Xorxes, ND, Foxcastle

I'm inclined to say the first grouping in NIA, putting more thought into you answer could be indicative, or the kind of play you get from scum where they are more careful about what they post. But given the personalities of those involved it could equally just be them being smart aleks.

I'm inclined to interpret choosing a normal colour as slight town indicative. Its more relaxed and and natural. Which is what I'd expect from a townie, could be faked though.

And I'm inclined to say ignoring the question is a slight scum indicator. As the question itself is harmless and answering it takes only a second.

Oh my God.

This "choose a color" dark magic may turn out to be the greatest scum detector we've ever known.

It was 2/2 in its town reads. And you all don't know this yet, but the five people who answered the question were all town! It's almost certain that at least two of the people who posted but failed to answer the question are scum.

Dark magic indeed.

I really think Damian is town.

[Balki Bartokomous]

You disagree with my reasoning? Why? Something else?

I don't think you would townread someone for townreading a lot of confirmed townies early D1.
[/quote]
Well, it's just that he did not need to hand out this many town reads. It just felt like he was putting out fires instead of starting them, and he was putting them out in places that (we now know) town didn't want to burn down.

[Balki Bartokomous]

You disagree with my reasoning? Why? Something else?

I don't think you would townread someone for townreading a lot of confirmed townies early D1.

Well, it's just that he did not need to hand out this many town reads. It just felt like he was putting out fires instead of starting them, and he was putting them out in places that (we now know) town didn't want to burn down.

(Sorry. Fixed it.)

[Balki Bartokomous]

1. Balki Bartokomous - slight town. He hasn't been as prolific a scum hunter as I was expecting, but his tone and pushes seem consistent with what little meta I have of him.
2. bozotheclown - scummy. His play has been extremely disappointing. I've said before that I don't like his avoidance of reading anyone and lot posting. It mirrors M40 when he was scum.
3. Damian - null. He got off to a really bad start, but as votes and pressure mounted, he actually seems to have gotten better. Recently he has one or two posts I really like where he has shown original ideas that push back on others arguments. I think one of them was about Ezio.
4. Ezio - slight town. he's had some red flags, but his posting style seems more consistent with his town play. He's been more vocal and loose I think.
5. Fluminator - slight scum. I feel like he is coasting and trying to avoid conflict.
6. FoxCastle - slight scum. I think he is playing scared.
7. ghug - why do I have to play with ghug? He is impossible to read and always scumreads me.
8. ND - slight town. his play is also hard to tell, but his pushes haven't been tunneling or obvious pushes like I would expect scum ND to make
9. rdrivera2005 - slight scum. I'm usually more impressed with his play this far in the game. He has been less detailed than usual.
10. Squigs44 - town
11. Tom Bombadil - probably town. His play has been consistent, and the way he has been pushing me seems genuine
12. Vecna - probably town. Venca is "town bursting" where he comments on a burst of posts. Can't find anything wrong with those posts
13. xorxes - town. His playstyle seems more comfortable.

Ugh, I am so sad that Squigs is gone. This Day 1 reads list was very good.

[Balki Bartokomous]

My current thinking on the scum team is...

wait for it...

Foxy, rdrivera, Ezio, Bozo

And I think it's ridiculous that Durga told us there were only 3.

[Balki Bartokomous]

This is weird. Mafia have a day kill?
There is a Mafia Vigilante or a town Vig? And why Tom?

ND was a null and I still don´t sense Squigs being scum saved, so I don´t think it was a great EOD.

This rdrivera post following the Day 1 reveal looks like theater to me.

It was not shocking to see mafia get a kill. That was discussed quite a bit in the thread, and it was the leading theory. Also "And why Tom?" seems very fake. I believe Tom was the first mafia kill in the most recent game. In that game, rdrivera was on the mafia team -- so...could he really be surprised there?

Suspicious!

[Balki Bartokomous]

This is weird. Mafia have a day kill?
There is a Mafia Vigilante or a town Vig? And why Tom?

ND was a null and I still don´t sense Squigs being scum saved, so I don´t think it was a great EOD.

This seem like trying too hard to be confused too anyone else?

Ah...#brainthief.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I have reread through page 22, and now I need to call it quits for a bit.

I am very dedicated to lynching Foxcastle or rdrivera this phase. I think their partner is Ezio or Bozo; not sure which one.

[Balki Bartokomous]

But for real, go look at Damian's color howitzer. That thing's legit.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Rdrivera's progression and interactions here seem a bit contradictory. He thinks that starting a wagon on ND was scummy, and thinks that voting ND without previously scumreading him is scummy. Then he himself votes ND at a pivotal time with him being a null read (granted he explains that as the best choice between the two wagons).
The kicker is what he says after the flip. He says he doesn't think I was scum saved, which would mean that he doesn't think the ND wagon was scummy. This seems contradictory to his earlier position.
@Rdrivera - was the ND wagon scummy or not?

God -- Squigs was so good. I think that town is going to win this game, but I am a little sad that Squigs basically already has MVP on lockdown. This man was a solving machine, and he didn't even have a color howitzer.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Eh, trusing ghug’s Ezio townread. That means: Foxy, rdrivera, Bozo.

[Balki Bartokomous]

How come nobody else is posting? Did you all give up? Did I win?

[Balki Bartokomous]

From what I have seen, scum tend to avoid clumping together, so I really doubt all three of them are on ND. That's not perfect in this case, because if Squigs was saved, then the scum had to support the ND wagon to do it. But even in that case, I think at least one scum would go somewhere else, and where better than to bus their scummate who they know is likely to remain on the chopping block in coming days?

If it was town-v-town, then scum didn't need to help the ND wagon at all. My general thought on scum is that they don't want to clump up and they want to blend in, they don't want to be implicated in a mislynch but also don't want to be seen totally avoiding the action, and so the second place wagon is a good place for one of them to land.

But I think this is the smallest game I've played, and that could make a difference (I don't see how, but maybe), and also they have a day chat, which means they can coordinate themselves much better if they do decide to bus/clump/whatever.

This is just scummy, guys. It just is. Trying to blend. Pretending to say something.

[rdrivera2005]

Why on Earth I am still alive? I entered the game expecting to see a PM with the link to the God thread, and have to see you lynched town Squigs and that Ghug is town cleared.
Now I need to endure two days with Balki puting his little show before you finally myslinch me.
I still need to read EOD and the last pages, but won't do that now. Good night.

[damian]

Got myself a little break. I've got no idea how Oracle works. I wasn't suggesting that scum would have a power to do a fake reveal like that. Way too powerful in a closed set up.

But if Scum had one of those fancy roles that shows up innocent on a scan like the godfather. Wouldn't that be a problem?

Based on what people are saying we have 2 mislynches left before we lose. So I'm going to treat ghug as town-cleared regardless.

I've got no idea what to make of Balki's burst of re-read analysis. I pretty much agree with his scum team though. I'd have loved it to come soon before the phase in hopes of pushing a few more people to Fox with me.

Although from his scum team Bozo's still a null for me, and I'm feeling Ezio more so. But RDR and Fox have looked pretty scummy to me.

Vecna is still looking quite town to me. With both him and Xorxes pushing for Balki I'd be curious to hear more about that case. As they've both put forward some good arguments thus far.

I'm part of the ranks of the great unwashed. I don't understand the xorxes town clear. I'm leaning town on him, but no more so than Balki. Which is to say. A solid Null.

[damian]

@Rdr You could have moved your vote to Squig before you left to help prevent your near lynch. Why didn't you.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Why on Earth I am still alive? I entered the game expecting to see a PM with the link to the God thread, and have to see you lynched town Squigs and that Ghug is town cleared.
Now I need to endure two days with Balki puting his little show before you finally myslinch me.
I still need to read EOD and the last pages, but won't do that now. Good night.

Interesting reaction. Do you think I am town or scum? Explain.

Why did you think you were going to die? And why do you say you have to “endure two days”? That’s quite a defeatist attitude. If you are Town, you still have lots of time to make your alignment clear.