MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

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phil_a_s
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#221 Post by phil_a_s » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:20 pm

Yeah, parking your vote nowhere is a pretty darn odd thing to do. Having one significant wagon was bad enough. Now we have none. It is rather interesting that the three candidates with the broadest popular support are xy4, Bancroft, and damo, all of whom are voting someone other than each other, and are the only ones to be voting that way. I really don't know what to make of it.

If we have caught two scum, then I would be expecting one of them on the third wagon, one of them off the wagons. Neither will want to bus the only remaining mafia, I suspect, but I don't think they'd want to both be tied to a D1 villager lynch.
If we have caught one scum, then I would expect that scum to be on one of the other wagons, and the other scum to be either on the last wagon or skulking off-wagon. Subset, if we have caught one scum and the other is Marneus, I'd expect scum to be sitting on one of the other wagons.
If we have caught zero scum, then I'd expect scum to be split between wagons and laying low. But I would still be expecting the targets, especially newbish ones, to be voting on the other wagons too.
Maybe I'm being thrown off by the newbie game aspect, I dunno. These hypothesis are also completely useless until we get some flips.

xy4
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#222 Post by xy4 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:21 pm

I’m sorry, Damo, but did you just change your vote due to a request for you to explain yourself on a point? I simply asked for you to participate more and I mentioned that I thought your initial vote may have been suspicious. You don’t contribute for quite a while, then return to jump to a conclusion on me and say you’ll be away for another hour?

I’m afraid that looks quite suspicious again to me. Not the disappearing act, but attacking me simply because I condemned your vote.

I won’t change my vote to Damo just yet, in case I see some juicy stuff on Bancroft. My vote most likely will be changing before the end of this phase.

phil_a_s
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#223 Post by phil_a_s » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:27 pm

Oh hey, damo turned up while I was composing that post. Didn't provide reads as requested, didn't provide analysis, but did provide an apparent OMGUS on xy4?

Highly suspicious. Damo, what do you think about Bancroft? Why are you voting xy? Why do you trust someone simply for relieving pressure on you?
1

xy4
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#224 Post by xy4 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:30 pm

Okay yknow what? I’m going to vote Damo now. ##VOTE Damo666. I’ve effectively hired a man to come and excecute me on the spot, since I have an unrivalled 3 votes, but call me brave or stupid, that’s my decision. It’s up to the rest of you to sort who gets lynched if anybody. I’ll keep watching the chat for a bit.

phil_a_s
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#225 Post by phil_a_s » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:37 pm

xy's decision to vote the apparently weaker wagon of damo would be more compelling if it were not accompanied by the martyr bit, but is noted all the same.

teacher2, I think I saw you online. What do you think about all this?

Only one left off-wagon is Bancroft, who IIRC promised to be on towards EoD? Interested to see what happens with that.

teacher2
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#226 Post by teacher2 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:40 pm

I’m online. I am happy with both wagons, but think it’s tvs, just not sure which way. Still on mobile. I will be monitoring though.

xy4
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#227 Post by xy4 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:41 pm

If there is a lynch, it’ll be me, unless someone else switches.

phil_a_s
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#228 Post by phil_a_s » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:45 pm

I am interpreting tvs as town versus scum, is that right? What about if we take all three lynches with 2 or more votes?

xy4
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#229 Post by xy4 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:47 pm

I think that there is very little chance of a Bancroft lynch tonight, so if I can, I’d encourage Teacher and Sheep to maybe change their votes.

sheepsaysmeep
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#230 Post by sheepsaysmeep » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:50 pm

worcej's readlist is pretty villagery

sheepsaysmeep
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#231 Post by sheepsaysmeep » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:50 pm

sheepsaysmeep wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:50 pm
worcej's readlist is pretty villagery
i dont agree with the reads but i like the reasoning he uses

sheepsaysmeep
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#232 Post by sheepsaysmeep » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:51 pm

phil is also a slight villa lean just because he has a lot of wim

wim is a term we use on mu stands for wants it more

just generally villagery to have a lot of motivation to be actively solving like that

worcej
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#233 Post by worcej » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:51 pm

@DrCJG - I think the point that no one is defending damo is fair, but what is there to defend though? He's now into the irrational behavior and his logic for decisions has been off throughout the day and now he's wagoning to save himself. He also concludes people are town because they are not voting for him? How can we defend it other than desperation?

sheepsaysmeep
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#234 Post by sheepsaysmeep » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:53 pm

1. Worcej
2. BancroftS
3. DrCJG
4. Damo666
5. Sheepsaysmeep
6. Marneus_Calgar
7. Teacher2
8. xy4
9. Phil_a_s

ok so

sheep
drcjg, worcej
teacher2, phil_a_s
--null line, anyone above this line is town, anyone under this line is scum--
damo666
bancrofts

marneus and xy4 are null

teacher2
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#235 Post by teacher2 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:59 pm

phil_a_s wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:45 pm
I am interpreting tvs as town versus scum, is that right? What about if we take all three lynches with 2 or more votes?
Youre interpreting it right. Part of the reason I really like Bancroft is that I think it offers all of the benefits of a Damo lynch without the risks I see there (e.g., I could easily see Damo-Bancroft as the team, but I can pair Bancroft with others in a way I cant with Damo).

Jamiet99uk
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#236 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:00 pm

VOTE COUNT 1.7

xy4 (3) - phil_a_s, DrCJG, DAmo666
Damo666 (2) - Worcej, xy4
BancroftS (2) - Teacher2, Sheepsaysmeep
Sheepsaysmeep (1) - BancroftS

Currently xy4 is set to be lynched.

You have ONE HOUR remaining in Day 1.

Marneus_Calgar needs to post and vote before phase ends or he will be replaced.

teacher2
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#237 Post by teacher2 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:03 pm

speaking more narrowly just to Damo, I think he is exactly 50/50 scum or town. So thats scummy rand+25, since a random here is 75/25 scummy. I just dont particularly want to lynch him today, and am looking for the next best thing.

phil_a_s
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#238 Post by phil_a_s » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:11 pm

So, xy4 seems to have left and damo is here. We've gotten some reactions from xy4, and they'll be great fun to read later, but for now, damo666 seems rather scummier.

##VOTE damo666

Explain, like, any of your behavior, please. You have some time, but not too much.

teacher2
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#239 Post by teacher2 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:17 pm

I thought about this earlier today, and decided Id rather write a post like this than have an actual claim. So I saved this draft if it were nedeed.

I agree with all of the reasons people are scumreading Damo. But I feel that he is a PR, and have thought this for most of the day.

Now let me stop to make one crucial point. If I am correct, Damo, do NOT (absent the votecount not changing EoD) confirm. Better to leave some ambiguity for the night phase, and I will talk about how to play with that then. I decided to draft this now, and post it if needed, primarily because I think a defense with some ambiguity is better than a potential hard claim.

The second, less crucial point is directed to the board. The easiest roles to confuse are scums and PRs, because their objectives and effects on newbs (survival/defensiveness) are so similar. I do think that, if I am wrong, Damo is a scum. For me, there is no in between on him. That is largely why I am voting Bancroft, who I see as his most likely team member (the associative case I didnt want to discuss).

worcej
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#240 Post by worcej » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:18 pm

teacher2 wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:03 pm
speaking more narrowly just to Damo, I think he is exactly 50/50 scum or town. So thats scummy rand+25, since a random here is 75/25 scummy. I just dont particularly want to lynch him today, and am looking for the next best thing.
I get the logic, but I need something more obvious to move to someone else. Damo has so far been my only hard read of sketchy behavior and I can see some merit/towny behavior from others.

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