MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

[worcej]

@Everyone - I am intrigued by the cop fake out strategy, especially since we're light on townies compared to the mafia count. The cop's information will be insanely valuable in trying to figure this out quickly.

Long story short, I am on board with the strategy but it will take all of us to execute (as others have already pointed out).

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE:

Yes. The Mafia are not compelled to use the Roleblock every night.

[sheepsaysmeep]

drcjg's posting here feels pretty different from that game where he was scum

i think it looks good for him

[damo666]

##VOTE DrCJG. Sheep change your vote.

[damo666]

And I prefer Dr fake

[teacher2]

First of all, I know we are basically out of RVS, but I’ve been itching to do this since he signed up, and Im not going to be denied just because Im commuting home. ##Vote DrCJC – because that bastard killed me and won last game. Now, Im over that and will again say well-played and move on.

Second, anyone who wants to discuss the game theory and the odds of the “hypo” strategy, I am glad to do so. But the short of it is that is designed to allow a cop to out their information without putting themselves overtly at risk – on day 2 a cop doesn’t have to out himself with an inno just to create a town block. Part of why it works is that even if somebody has ruled themselves out as cop (with a false inno or guilty), they still haven’t ruled themselves out as doc, so it doesn’t help scum PR hunt that much. I do think on day 3 town wants the PR to hardclaim absent a redflip.

Third, I said day 2 and day 3 above for a very specific reason. In a lopsided information game, it is highly likely that we will be at lylo on day 3, with 3:2 remaining. It is almost certain that town will be lynched today – 78% statistically, without factoring in scum’s ability to coordinate. It is likewise almost certain that a cop (if we have one) will scan a town (75%). And it is more likely than not that town gets lynched tomorrow too. So town needs to be active this game because it will come down to the wire fast. I can basically assure you that absent some incredibly strong scumread, I will end this day voting on one of the three lowest posters.

Fourth, general mafia strategy: in a 7-2 setup, scum generally does not want to be on the same wagon day one. They also desperately need to maintain flexibility to be able to push opposite reads, potentially into day 2. Thus, requiring (by threat of policy lynches) all players to post readslist every 24 real life hours both (a) provides information town can use, and (b) denies flexibility scum want. As a game theory/real-life statistics point, scum are most often 1 on, 1 off town lynch wagons, but if they are both in the same place it is more often on than off.

Finally, since the Lundbot is not running (tear), I wanted to point out that you can effectively ISO someone by clicking into their profile and search user’s posts.

Good luck all and look forward to reading.

[damo666]

redflip?

[sheepsaysmeep]

i'd rather you vote even a weak scumread rather than someone just because theyre a low poster unless you scumread them for low posting

[teacher2]

Gameplay notes for true newbs, from a relative newb here, for the exact two cents they are worth.

Regarding Hypo Cops v Doctors: Faking Doctor does not provide the same benefit. A cop is an information-gathering role; the difficulty is in getting that information out for use without risk. A doctor is a protective role; they do not have information to use.

Regarding PR objectives: A cop's goal should be to identify and scan scum. A Doctor's goal should be to ID and protect town. Both seem slightly obvious, but have a second-level. A cop wants to scan someone who is going to be alive days after the scan, so that even if its an inno, thats information that can be used to build a block. A doc wants to save the self-protect AND obv!town protects for when they are clearly needed. In terms of play-style appearances, PRs should generally want to appear slightly scummy -- enough to avoid being the nightkill because they are a potential mislynch, but not enough to actually be the mislynch wagon and so forced to claim. A fine line.

Regarding voting, lynching, and claiming: Right now it takes 5 votes to lynch. Do NOT provide the fifth vote without advance warning, absent a crashing deadline. You want to give the lynch target enough time to claim PR if they are one. If you are VT, consider whether or not claiming PR helps town -- it could out the real PR by a counterclaim, or put the real PR at risk if they are the counterwagon. I frown on it personally, but different sites have different metas and it seems fairly accepted here.

Regarding reading: My personal strategy focuses on motives, probabilities, and associations. For each post, I try to ascertain the motive behind it. Does it seem town-motivated or scum-motivated. To be sure, both town and scum have similar objectives, but they arent overlapping. Town is not as afraid of being lynched, because there will be a mislynch at some point; scum knows that their death is 50% of a loss. Town wants to out real analysis to advance the game; scum wants to repeat information that everybody knows so they can appear to be helping without actually doing it.
Another key area of difference is in probabilities. Here, I cant say it much better than a strategy article from one of the other places I play: Use Occam's Razor with the knowledge that scum thrive on possibilities. Last, I will speak on associations later.

Finally, regarding me. My meta is to obv!town in any alignment, and almost any role. So I dont think Ive done too much thats AI (alignment indicative) for me yet. But Im looking forward to your thoughts (and my thoughts on them all the way down the rabbit hole).

[teacher2]

redflip?

death of a mafia. Mafia/scum is associated with the color red. Flip is the role reveal on death. Redflip=revelation that a dead player had a mafia alignment.

i'd rather you vote even a weak scumread rather than someone just because theyre a low poster unless you scumread them for low posting

I expect newb!scum to be afraid of slipping, and so to lurk. TBH, I dont have that reaction to you because of the known experience, so your posting is NAI for me. But lurking in a newb! game is a weak scum!tell for me. So voting lurkings is voting a weak scumread. If nobody lurks, then I will have to go off of other reads.

[teacher2]

last thought/response:

@Phil, I dont think EoD readslists are very feasible, given the common pre-deadline rush to find a comprmise. I would advocate for everyone posting them around "midday" - one day into a turn, and "mid-afternoon" - 36 hoursish. After that, the focus should be on arriving at a compromise lynch rather than providing reads on the whole board. The "EoD" list can be provided at EoN, before death may silence you, with the added benefit of analysis from the lynch-flip.

Also, FWIW, I will almost always be offline 5pm-815pm NYC time, so will miss most deadlines.

[teacher2]

Worcej – I believe I read that EoDs will be hard for you… let’s try and encourage good discussion long before EoD so that doesn’t become an issue.

Out of pure curiosity, what was this belief based on?

Also, while I agree with the one read you did provide, you do realize that my alignment is not a coinflip, right, at least not unless we are using Vegas "special" dice.

Finally,I took the effort to build this for ISO purposes, since thats how I do alot of my retrospective analysis. Hope it can help you too...
1. Worcej
2. BancroftS
3. DrCJG
4. Damo666
5. Sheep
6. Marneus Calgar
7. Teacher
8. xy4
9. Phil_a_s
Sub. Yavuzovic

[DrCJG]

Worcej – I believe I read that EoDs will be hard for you… let’s try and encourage good discussion long before EoD so that doesn’t become an issue.

Out of pure curiosity, what was this belief based on?

I believe he mentioned in signups that he was still at work at EoD and that was his only worry about the time commitment.

Thanks for the info Teacher, I’ll have to check out the ISOs and still need to look up hypos... You look just as helpful as last game when you were town but I do think that’s just you every game.

And while I am aware your alignment is not a coin flip (and even aware that your prior alignment has no effect on your current alignment) I just really want to beat you again... so I’m hoping you’re scum.

##Vote Marneus , @ Marneus - any reads so far? What do you think about everyone faking cop?

[teacher2]

Right now it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Ack.... providing wrong info. Bad teacher, bad! I forgot that WebDip is a plurality lynch spot. The lynch with the most votes at deadline will go through, even if less than five. A tie lynch vote equals no lynch (no priority to oldest vote for lynches). ##CallGM - Please confirm Im providing correct info this time?

I believe he mentioned in signups that he was still at work at EoD and that was his only worry about the time commitment.

Just FYI, nope (nor anyone else in the game).

[teacher2]

In the event of a tie during an execution vote, no one shall be killed.

Doesnt explicitly say that a plurality of four at deadline will constitute a lynch, but it is both implicit and correct based on my one game here. Just FYI. Now going to sleep. Be well all.

[sheepsaysmeep]

Finally, regarding me. My meta is to obv!town in any alignment, and almost any role. So I dont think Ive done too much thats AI (alignment indicative) for me yet.

i uh dont really like this part of the post

the rest is fine
those sentences stand out as scummy

[sheepsaysmeep]

oh you played on mafiascum !!!

[sheepsaysmeep]

##VOTE DrCJG. Sheep change your vote.

idk im prolly comfortable where my vote is rn

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 1.1

DrCJG (2) - Damo666, Teacher2
Marneus_Calgar (1) - DrCJG
Damo666 (1) - Sheepsaysmeep

Currently DrCJG is set to be lynched. You have just under 39 hours left in Day 1.

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE

To answer the question about voting:

When the Day phase ends, the player with the most votes is lynched. There is no minimum threshold for "most votes". A candidate with two votes on them could be lynched at the end of today if all the other candidates have only one vote.

If the vote is tied, or if the option with the most votes is "NO LYNCH", then nobody shall be lynched.