MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

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thamrick
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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1901 Post by thamrick » Fri May 18, 2018 4:03 am

Also of note that ghug had Ezio as his 2nd highest scumread in his last post.

If Ezio is scum, he's pretty clearly playing the deep threat game. Would make sense that scum would want to protect their deep threat. Especially if they don't have a strong copread.

Ezio has ended 2/3 days off of the main wagons. That's a pretty good way to avoid suspicion, especially coupled with how absent as he's been.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1902 Post by thamrick » Fri May 18, 2018 4:17 am

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 3:51 am
thamrick wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 3:31 am
Reading that Foxy/Balki exchange the last few pages, I couldn't help but be reminded of how Balki was interacting with MLQ a few games back.

[][]VOTE Balki
This is an incomplete theory.

You played a recent game with me where I was scum. I do something that reminds you of something I did in that game. So you think I’m scum here too.

Sounds pretty good, but it doesn’t hold up. You don’t mention any Town Balki meta for comparison. You need to compare to atown Balki meta so that you know if this “thing” that reminds you of Balki in the prior game is just how Balki is always, or if it is only how Balki is as Scum.

1. Do you see why your stated reason for voting Balki is not strong?
2. have you considered games in which I was Town and tried to sort out whether this unstated way that I’ve interacted here is just how I am or if it’s how I am only as scum?
3. Can you flesh out what it is that you are putting your finger on about my interaction here that is so reminiscent for you?
This is my point. You like picking out what you deem as a logical inconsistency and harping on that. You spend words on words on words arguing the logical conclusions of arguments. You're pretty good at it. When I read your arguments, I always think "yeah, I see where Balki is coming from here." I was 100% convinced that game that you were town and MLQ was scum. I understood where you were coming from with Foxy. I also think that ultimately it doesn't matter. Just because Foxy used the words "plausible deniability" and sure, that doesn't really apply to how the EoD shook out, doesn't mean the sentiment behind what he was saying can't be true. I think it's possible you are scum with Ike. I get that you easily could have jumped off the Ike wagon and onto the bozo wagon based on what you said and did D1. Maybe you were planning on it though. Maybe Ike fake-claimed and beat you to it. Maybe you were hard bussing Ike and were going to stick it out to the end regardless.

Same thing for this. You're attacking my statement because it is incomplete. I haven't compared it to your town meta. I honestly don't have a firm idea of your town meta. How many games have we even played together where you were town? Regardless, does that even mean that you aren't playing similar to how you played as scum that game?

How would you describe your scum meta? Your town meta?

@anyone who has ideas about Balki's metas - describe town Balki vs. scum Balki

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1903 Post by bo_sox48 » Fri May 18, 2018 4:38 am

Town and scum Balki are the same damn thing. Balki is a good player.

I'm curious about Ezio. I can hardly even recall anything he has done so far. Time for an iso, I suppose.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1904 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri May 18, 2018 4:40 am

@Thamrick,

I don't think there is a big difference between my Town meta and my Scum meta. I mean, when I'm Scum, I basically play as I think I would play as Town. I react to things I find scummy and I try to use the same scumhunting framework. And I think I'm good at playing Scum. So, I don't think these kinds of meta arguments are very useful with regard to my alignment.

When I've been caught as scum, it's usually based on vote analysis, after the Town gets more knowledge from some useful flips.

I feel a lot of pressure in this game all of a sudden, and I feel like the general arguments put forward are akin to: "well, that might seem Towny, but it's in Balki's scumrange." "Well, Balki could definitely fake that as scum." "Well, maybe Balki started the wagon and pushed a guy who I think is scum all Day 1, but Balki could do that as scum too."

Sure, don't town read me for stuff if you think I have a wide scumrange, and can fake stuff (it's true), but these are not reasons to lynch me. They are reasons to read me as Null, and view me with some skepticism.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1905 Post by bo_sox48 » Fri May 18, 2018 4:41 am

Well that was a remarkably fast iso.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1906 Post by TrPrado » Fri May 18, 2018 4:47 am

So, I've had to do quite a bit of rethinking for who I think might be on the scumteam. Obviously, I was off on Telamor, which put a bit of a dent in my theory on the way he was interacting with Jamie.

I also have concluded which of the two remaining early game super-lurkers (reedeer and Chaqa, Ezio not included due to somewhat heavier early game participation) is probably scum. Based on the way Fox and bo have been acting, I'm almost certain that Fox has to be town, with bo likely coming in as scum.

I'll go ahead and discuss snowy again since he was originally one of the people I listed for possible scum. Another obvious point here is that I've changed my mind on this. I think hinging things on the idea of "I don't know he seems unmotivated" is a bit ridiculous. Sitting around and letting people stew over the idea of "yeah he's a clear scumbo" may not benefit the town by much, but it actively harms the scum even more. Much more importantly, given the hectic nature of the past EOD, he seemed absolutely of the belief that his changing his vote to save himself would have caused a tie, and he felt it was more important that the town move on without that kind of confusion as opposed to letting himself live. I don't know if I can be convinced that this is something any member of the scum team would do.

Another person on my proposed team was yavuzovic. God, the way he's played is just bizarre. I'm not sure there's much I can personally add here. He said ghug was the person he most felt was scum, but the person he's been pushing hardest is snowball, aside from just at one point joining Balki on ghug for a bit yesterday without explanation.

The final member of my originally proposed team is Jamie. In case you couldn't tell. It's very hard for me to shake the suspicion that he's scum. After using hypocritical logic for the sake of a tunneled push against peter, to trying to bait a very open cop claim, it's just difficult. I'm also not sure three separate wagons D2 were all town. The odds just don't play out very well, and I've already displayed I'm convinced of who the second town wagon for that day was.

So if we've got Jamie, bo, and yavuzovic, who's left?

I'll start by listing people off I'm certain of being town:
Foxcastle (as above),
snowy (as above),
DemonRHK,
darg
rdrivera,
peterlund,
DrCJG, and
Ike

This leaves:
Balki,
Ezio, and
thamrick

Very glad my townreads leave me with just a pool of three for who I think could be on the scum team.

For a while I felt he was town but that read has deteriorated over time, and while one of my more uncertain reads, he'd be my first pick of the three as a member of the scum team.

I'm not sure if I can properly judge the character of Ezio, so if I were absolutely forced to pick the final member it's thamrick.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1907 Post by bo_sox48 » Fri May 18, 2018 4:52 am

TrPrado wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 4:47 am
I also have concluded which of the two remaining early game super-lurkers (reedeer and Chaqa is probably scum. Based on the way Fox and bo have been acting, I'm almost certain that Fox has to be town, with bo likely coming in as scum.
That is such a vague and useless statement that I can't even be upset.
TrPrado wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 4:47 am
Ezio not included due to somewhat heavier early game participation)
Ezio posted 8 times on day 1. Each of these 8 posts came within a span of 16 minutes on pages 21 and 22. How do you call that "somewhat heavier earlier game participation?"

On day 2, Ezio posted four times, all in a span of 10 minutes. On day 3, Ezio posted twice, all in a span of 2 minutes.

How is Ezio not one of your "super lurkers?"

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1908 Post by bo_sox48 » Fri May 18, 2018 4:55 am

You know what, I'm down. ##VOTE Ezio

His only goal in this game so far has been to not get subbed out. Honestly he shouldn't be allowed to play the next game.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1909 Post by thamrick » Fri May 18, 2018 4:57 am

I'm not scumreading you because I think you're capable of acting like town as scum. I'm scumreading you because of your connections to the NK's (particularly xorxes and teacher. ghug was up and down on you). I know you're capable of acting like town as scum. What bothers me most is that you seem incredibly comfortable when arguing with someone, but whenever you back off (like your last post and after the Telamor lynch) it feels so bleh.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1910 Post by TrPrado » Fri May 18, 2018 5:16 am

Oh sorry bo I didn’t realize I could’ve been impeding your monopoly on vague and useless statements.

So in that case I’ll clarify. I was certain one of reedeer, Chaqa, and Stressedlines had to be a lurker scum. Stressed was lynched and flipped town, and reedeer was replaced by Foxy, who has done quite a bit to help town. So in part by process of elimination you’d be scum.

Furthermore you’ve launched a lot of bizarre and baseless pushes that have rubbed me the wrong way, which given I’m judging you against Fox solidifies that you’d be scum in my head.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1911 Post by TrPrado » Fri May 18, 2018 5:18 am

Also I’m gonna go ahead and ##VOTE JAMIE since I’m still unable to conclude he’s a towny.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1912 Post by bo_sox48 » Fri May 18, 2018 5:19 am

You still haven't even said anything. You just say that you have this baseless theory that one of three must be scum, and those two aren't, so because you said one of three must be, the last one must be...

Am I missing something or have you always been this stupid?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1913 Post by TrPrado » Fri May 18, 2018 5:22 am

bo_sox48 wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 5:19 am
You still haven't even said anything. You just say that you have this baseless theory that one of three must be scum, and those two aren't, so because you said one of three must be, the last one must be...

Am I missing something or have you always been this stupid?
Are you suggesting that the entire scum team has been at least relatively active?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1914 Post by bo_sox48 » Fri May 18, 2018 5:30 am

Considering I just pointed out that Ezio has only given this game 28 minutes of his time throughout the last week or week and a half and then voted for him, no, I'm not. Why are you ignoring Ezio?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1915 Post by TrPrado » Fri May 18, 2018 5:56 am

That list of three was composed D2. That list of three managed to put a significantly less amount of time into this game than you omnisciently seem to know Ezio has. That’s why 2 of them had to be subbed out, if you’ll recall.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1916 Post by peterlund » Fri May 18, 2018 7:37 am

Last night, I came home after a fun evening out with my work buddies, talking a lot of bull and solving the World issues over a Czech schnitzel and some Czech beers. Ike's logic is terrible. We probably should lynch him today. Balki's history is really bad. We should lynch him today. Snowy look bad as usual. He is sort of unreadable as always, but Balki's strong defense of him is very telling. He should be lynched. Jamie is actually looking just a tiny better than before. We can wait a bit with him. Bo and darg are climbing fast on the looking bad score board. Good lynch alternatives as well.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1917 Post by peterlund » Fri May 18, 2018 7:42 am

thamrick wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 3:01 pm
@peterlund - since D2 you've been pushing a narrative for a scumcore of Balki/snowy/Jamie and heavily voting Jamie throughout that time. Why did you move Jamie down to "scummish" in your EoN3 reads but leave Balki and snowy in the "scum" category?
At EoN3, I wanted to get you Tham and Bo onto my 5 scum spots in my read. Reading the thread upto EoN3, I got the feeling that you and Bo are looking quite bad, while I got the feeling that Jamie was getting more towny.

Now reading D4, I want also Ike (with extremely bad logic motivating his claim) and Darg (being very hedgy all game) into my 5 scum spots. I have a problem, since there is not enough room there. Updated scum list: Balki Bo Snowy Ike Darg

Been reading up on the Chaqa/Bo position. Nothing from Chaqa in his 3 posts and the second Bo post was scummy as hell saying that BOTH Jamie and Snowy are town. That post was so disturbing that I had to look more into the Bo case. He defended Balki's defense of the two and has continued to do so. Reading the rest, I find Bo always end up with conclusions being the opposite of mine. And since I am town, Bo must be scum. If we lynch Bo and he turns out scum, we also nail Balki and Snowy... ##VOTE BO

ISO link: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... rt=1-&g=36

But, I am also fully prepared to move to any of my other scum reads (Balki, Snowy, Ike, Darg) at EoN4, if Bo does not happen today.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1918 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 18, 2018 9:14 am

##VOTE EZIO

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1919 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 18, 2018 9:16 am

TrPrado do you have an actual case on Bo_sox? I haven't seen you make one yet.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1920 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 18, 2018 9:20 am

Foxcastle - the way you just backed out of your confrontation with Balki was a bit weird.

I think you should answer the question: Why would scum Balki need an alibi for voting for scum Ike?

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