MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

[rdrivera2005]

The above ^ message was to Thamrick, I forgot to quote him.

[rdrivera2005]

Now it's on the other page

[Balki Bartokomous]

I want to emphasize a point I made earlier -- I think that an important consideration today is that shrinking the Cop pool is dangerous.

We have a living, hidden Cop who has at least two scans. This is by far are biggest asset, and if Town wins this game, I think it will be because we have a very powerful Cop reveal at some point.

Scum are obviously desperate to kill Cop right now.

The Cop pool consists of all of our remaining townies who have not been leading wagons in the final moments of a phase. The way I see it, it looks like this:

Cop Pool
Balki Bartokomous
Chaqa/Bo
Dargorygel
DemonRHK
DrCJG
Ezio
Peterlund
Rdrivera2005
Reedeer1/Foxy
Thamrick
TrPrado
Yavuzovic

Probably Not Cop
RagingIke297
Snowy801
Jamiet99uk

The Cop Pool is smaller for scum, of course, as they can remove their own members from the pool. And they may be able to shrink it further based on things that people have said in game.

Scum would love to lynch a townie who is in the Cop Pool today.

For these reasons, I am more inclined to lynch Ike, Snowy, or Jamiet today than I otherwise would be.

I have town reads on both Snowy and Jamiet right now, and RagingIke is my hardest scum read. I really don't like the idea of lynching a Doc claimer when the passage of time will give us more info on that claim (CC or the death of a doctor), but lynching Ike has a few advantages too: (a) it gives us critical information about Day 1 and (b) it does not shrink the Cop Pool.

[Foxcastle]

Are there scum who would want to avoid both bussing and being on the mislynch?

Remaining players who have so far avoided being in an awkward position...
(not on a major wagon at EOD)

D1: Chaqa/Bo, TrPrado, Yavuz, Ezio, DemonRHK*
D2**: Ezio, RagingIke, DrCJG
D3: Snowy, Bo

*Interesting bit here, with 15 min to go, Demon says (p.27), "I don’t like any of these three. Would someone support a snowy wagon or we pretty well locked into these three? If so, sadly my vote will end up on Ike, he’s the best info of the three. Until then @@Vote snowy". But then never gets around to voting Ike, despite Snowy topping out at 3 votes (with Ike and Jamie) and Demon commenting as recently as 0:03 to go when Snowy was a clear loser and Ike was still in play (had not claimed yet).

**no vote from Chaqa/Bo or Reedeer/Foxcastle. For what it's worth (i.e., not much), I would have probably jumped on Stressed.

So, Bo and Ezio are both on that list twice.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Foxcastle,

Seems like you are reading both me and RagingIke as scum. Those are, perhaps, your two biggest scumreads at the moment?

Go look at my Day 1 interactions with RagingIke. I feel like I was the first to push his wagon, I pushed it pretty hard, and a vote to lynch RagingIke was perhaps the only vote I cast? I think it's also true that he would have been lynched on Day 1 if he did not claim PR, so he was in serious jeopardy.

I'd like you to go take a look at those interactions, and report back here if it looks like Scum Balki bussing Scum Ike. I think that is a critical question to answer for someone with those two scumreads. And I think you should look hard at those posts, and let us know your answer.

[yavuzovic]

I want to emphasize a point I made earlier -- I think that an important consideration today is that shrinking the Cop pool is dangerous.

We have a living, hidden Cop who has at least two scans. This is by far are biggest asset, and if Town wins this game, I think it will be because we have a very powerful Cop reveal at some point.

Scum are obviously desperate to kill Cop right now.

The Cop pool consists of all of our remaining townies who have not been leading wagons in the final moments of a phase. The way I see it, it looks like this:

Cop Pool
Balki Bartokomous
Chaqa/Bo
Dargorygel
DemonRHK
DrCJG
Ezio
Peterlund
Rdrivera2005
Reedeer1/Foxy
Thamrick
TrPrado
Yavuzovic

Probably Not Cop
RagingIke297
Snowy801
Jamiet99uk

The Cop Pool is smaller for scum, of course, as they can remove their own members from the pool. And they may be able to shrink it further based on things that people have said in game.

Scum would love to lynch a townie who is in the Cop Pool today.

For these reasons, I am more inclined to lynch Ike, Snowy, or Jamiet today than I otherwise would be.

I have town reads on both Snowy and Jamiet right now, and RagingIke is my hardest scum read. I really don't like the idea of lynching a Doc claimer when the passage of time will give us more info on that claim (CC or the death of a doctor), but lynching Ike has a few advantages too: (a) it gives us critical information about Day 1 and (b) it does not shrink the Cop Pool.

Wait, Balki. Are you working to find the cop. Why are you trying to reveal him, will you hunt?
If we are all towns we should keep the cop secret. And cop should inject the scans slightly.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Wait, Balki. Are you working to find the cop. Why are you trying to reveal him, will you hunt?
If we are all towns we should keep the cop secret. And cop should inject the scans slightly.

I am not trying to reveal him. Obviously we should keep him secret. I am trying to keep him as hidden as possible.

And, um, we are not all town.

[TrPrado]

I agree with yavuz, that's a bad post. The closest thing to a saving grace is it's just info scum already probably know.

Sorry for being gone since a while before EON, I had an event out of town with some friends and didn't get back home until late at night and I was too exhausted to do any sort of work.

[TrPrado]

While I go read everything that happened before this page, can someone sum up what of significance is currently going on?

[Balki Bartokomous]

I agree with yavuz, that's a bad post. The closest thing to a saving grace is it's just info scum already probably know.

I mean...it's obviously stuff that scum already know. So what's bad about it?

Scum can talk about this stuff openly in their QT. There are five of them. They know that people who were nearly lynched, would have claimed cop if they were cop.

We need to consider this sort of stuff. It's important.

[Balki Bartokomous]

While I go read everything that happened before this page, can someone sum up what of significance is currently going on?

Nothing urgent or Earth shattering. You should probably just go read it for yourself, as there is no time pressure.

[TrPrado]

So after people have pretty clearly displayed why it makes no sense for snowy to be scum, people are still confident about him being scum?

[Foxcastle]

@Foxcastle,

Seems like you are reading both me and RagingIke as scum. Those are, perhaps, your two biggest scumreads at the moment?

Go look at my Day 1 interactions with RagingIke. I feel like I was the first to push his wagon, I pushed it pretty hard, and a vote to lynch RagingIke was perhaps the only vote I cast? I think it's also true that he would have been lynched on Day 1 if he did not claim PR, so he was in serious jeopardy.

I'd like you to go take a look at those interactions, and report back here if it looks like Scum Balki bussing Scum Ike. I think that is a critical question to answer for someone with those two scumreads. And I think you should look hard at those posts, and let us know your answer.

Oh, I'd noticed some of your interactions when I subbed in and went back to read the thread, and then reread you both in duo just now to make sure. It's nothing good, experienced players like you and Ike couldn't easily dance as scum.

[TrPrado]

Ike: Why didn't you reveal who you were intending to save last night?

[Foxcastle]

@Foxcastle,

Seems like you are reading both me and RagingIke as scum. Those are, perhaps, your two biggest scumreads at the moment?

Go look at my Day 1 interactions with RagingIke. I feel like I was the first to push his wagon, I pushed it pretty hard, and a vote to lynch RagingIke was perhaps the only vote I cast? I think it's also true that he would have been lynched on Day 1 if he did not claim PR, so he was in serious jeopardy.

I'd like you to go take a look at those interactions, and report back here if it looks like Scum Balki bussing Scum Ike. I think that is a critical question to answer for someone with those two scumreads. And I think you should look hard at those posts, and let us know your answer.

Oh, I'd noticed some of your interactions when I subbed in and went back to read the thread, and then reread you both in duo just now to make sure. It's nothing good, experienced players like you and Ike couldn't easily dance as scum.

And coming back to your assertions (bolded), you were the first vote on Ike, that's true. But your push on him is full of hedges and hemming and hawing and very nice discussions with him that don't really go anywhere. That's fine, and that's not even scummy. Coming back a few days later and trying to make it seem like you were the champion of that wagon is a little scummy, though. Especially given that you didn't push his wagon hard when it mattered (in the last hour). In fact, one of the last things you do is press Bozo on why he voted for Ike—again, that's fine on its own, but it looks pretty accusatory to me, and has the effect of not so much helping the Ike wagon as it does casting doubt on Bozo for joining the Ike wagon (which itself carries secondary insinuations about the Ike wagon).

I'm curious, Balki, why you think there are critical questions for someone scumreading both you and Ike. Why is it that scumreading Ike should somehow also preclude or qualify scumreading you?

[DrCJG]

Apologies for largely being absent over the last 48 hours... I am in the process of catching up on the end of N3 and D4 and hope to contribute substantively over the rest of D4.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Foxcastle,

Seems like you are reading both me and RagingIke as scum. Those are, perhaps, your two biggest scumreads at the moment?

Go look at my Day 1 interactions with RagingIke. I feel like I was the first to push his wagon, I pushed it pretty hard, and a vote to lynch RagingIke was perhaps the only vote I cast? I think it's also true that he would have been lynched on Day 1 if he did not claim PR, so he was in serious jeopardy.

I'd like you to go take a look at those interactions, and report back here if it looks like Scum Balki bussing Scum Ike. I think that is a critical question to answer for someone with those two scumreads. And I think you should look hard at those posts, and let us know your answer.

Oh, I'd noticed some of your interactions when I subbed in and went back to read the thread, and then reread you both in duo just now to make sure. It's nothing good, experienced players like you and Ike couldn't easily dance as scum.

Well, sure, perhaps it's something that Scum Balki and Scum RagingIke could do. But is it likely something that we would do on Day 1 with no discussion in advance?

If you read the game from the perspective of "Let's see, is this something that a veteran scum player is capable of doing?" then you can't really pick up many clues, right?

I think you should read the game from the perspective of, "let's see, assuming Balki is scum there, and considering the knowledge of the game state he would have, would he be likely to make that day-long push on a teammate and try to get him lynched on Day 1?

Critically important to this -- go look at my reaction to the Bozo vote on Ike at the close of day. I asked Bozo about it, and then I read Bozo as town ultimately after Bozo explained. If I were scum with Ike, that would have been an easy moment to flip and vote Bozo. I was not stuck in any sense. But I ended up reading Bozo as town, and staying on Ike, right up until Ike claimed a PR in the closing minutes.

Read it again, and think about it. Does that seem likely from a Scum Balki/Scum Ike team?

[DemonRHK]

So after people have pretty clearly displayed why it makes no sense for snowy to be scum, people are still confident about him being scum?

Literally the only points made on snowy being town are:

-bo saying that Jamie and snowy have to be both town or both scum, and town is more likely. This isn’t true, stranger things have happened with votes. And the case that all three wagons D2 were town is a sub-40% chance on pure odds.

-people saying the way he gave up at EoD3 is towny. That is absolutely not the case. His entire game has been excuses for not being part of the game, not reading, not doing anything. How does he respond to a 2nd last minute save? One lazy read on Balki and a EoN post hedging his activity for D4 and saying he still likely won’t take part.

He’s scumreading Balki (who I think is his scumbuddy) to wifom when one of them flips.

He’s still fucking scum.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Coming back a few days later and trying to make it seem like you were the champion of that wagon is a little scummy, though. Especially given that you didn't push his wagon hard when it mattered (in the last hour). In fact, one of the last things you do is press Bozo on why he voted for Ike—again, that's fine on its own, but it looks pretty accusatory to me, and has the effect of not so much helping the Ike wagon as it does casting doubt on Bozo for joining the Ike wagon (which itself carries secondary insinuations about the Ike wagon).

I think you should read that again. You're right that I was extremely suspicious of Bozo when he cast some votes at the wire. I think he may have voted Ike, then voted away from Ike? Something like that. And I asked Bozo about it in an accusatory fashion. That's also true. But then I read Bozo's response as genuine, and I ultimately townread Bozo for what I saw to be a readable moment.

We know now that Bozo is Town. And you believe that RagingIke is Scum. So, the question you should be asking is: Would Scum Balki react to Bozo's answers in that way, when it appeared the lynch was coming down to RagingIke and Bozo.

My point is that Scum Balki had flexibility there to be on either wagon at the end, and he would have viewed his vote to be critical. I'm just nearly 100% certain that if I was scum in that context I would have switched my vote and lynched Bozo without forcing Ike into a claim or die situation. And I don't think you --not knowing me as well as I know me -- could get to 100%. But I think that if you read it carefully and think critically about it, you would conclude that it is at least unlikely that I am Scum, if Ike is Scum.

I'm curious, Balki, why you think there are critical questions for someone scumreading both you and Ike. Why is it that scumreading Ike should somehow also preclude or qualify scumreading you?

As I've explained, I think the EOD1 makes it very unlikely for there to be a Balki/Ike scum team. I think the evidence is very strong against that scenario, and yet your two top reads seem to be Scum Balki and Scum Ike. So I want to confront you with the evidence so that (a) you will change your mind, or (b) I can understand better how you are thinking (or pretending to think) about this.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Demon,

I don't ever recall seeing this angry tone from you. But you've been expressing yourself this way all game. What gives?