M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[worcej]

Let me dissect the frustration of the setup/rules at the cost of irritating Jamie:

1. I had a 'gun', real or fake it's irrelevant. If I was 'put into a car' (commuted), I wouldn't know that I was and couldn't fire the gun because I was 'in the car', but I still lose the bullet and chance to fire because I made a choice to try. Oh well!
2. If my target was lynched at the last second of the day, I would still lose the bullet because I need to shoot that dead body because it's really important to ensure to double tap that victim! Never know when a zombie is going to spring up and kill us all!

The Vig and Miller Vig are incredibly underpowered and have no way to confirm anything other than our action failed, which can happen for too many reasons. From my assessment, I had to be open about what I tried to do in hopes of learning more. The Judicator is the only one, when presented with what we tried to do, that can crack the case open at the cost of them being exposed, which is terrible when comboed with the scum JOAT. Add in we have a Tough Guy on the scum team, and the Vig role is just worthless - the Vig's had a high chance of failure - pretty darn close to 50/50 odds actually.

The JOAT is too specifically designed to combat town and the town cannot really stop him and learn anything by it - only the Judicator can randomly hit him, if we're lucky.

TL;DR - setup, now that I can witness the effects, is pretty scum sided. Town has no real weapons to stop the JOAT without completely exposing our powers.


TL;DR

[worcej]

If the Judicator commuted someone not in the relevant 4 they could reveal that and then we know scum is in 1 of two. A fair trade.

If they did commute 1 of the 4 the lack of kill is explained but a reveal would be sacrificial for not that much benefit (targets could still be scum).

In the first instance the Judicator will presumably reveal just prior t EOD giving scum no chance to react. In the second they will presumably stay silent.

Now, you shouldn't be pursuing this any more.

By waiting until the last second @ EOD, the scum can just as easily do it and then we still have two claims going into D3.

I also don't care what your opinion is. You're scum, our last PR, or one of the worst players at a team game that I've seen in a long time.

xorxes voted to save himself as well, the question to me is whether damo deliberately waited until the last minute to vote, or if he really came online just in time to place that vote.

Yes, and I thought I addressed the difference between the two: Damo's move is more scummy because it was in the last minute of the day and if he is the judicator, it would have been more practical for him to claim instead of tie it. Especially if he was the judicator and commuted one of the 4 people involved with the Vig's, thus making this even more of a quagmire.

[worcej]

That is another reason why we should just wait until we have that information to resolve summit/Vecna. If no Vigs or Vig targets were commuted, it is 50/50 between summit/Vecna for me.

Yes, but what happens if at EOD we are told by one person that they didn't and then a CC comes in and says the opposite. We are @ mylo tomorrow - which one do you believe?

[Chaqa]

There is some Schadenfreude in seeing worcej angry at a GM's mechanics and setup

[Tom Bombadil]

This Neph wagon doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

Particularily coming to a conclusion that his lack of vote was scummy D1. If anything, the only scenario where scum!Neph doesn't break the tie there is if it was scum vs scum. Everybody would understand a player breaking a tie.

Its also totally in character for Neph to forget about a deadline like that - or have a lazy D1.

I think damo is still the best lynch. Decent chance of hitting scum and allows us to understand D1 better.

[bozotheclown]

Oh snap

Guess who forgot about this game

I’ll catch up in a few hours

When you made these posts, did you realize it was 10 minutes before EOD? Did you check the vote count at that time?

Yes, no

I woke up at 8:45, wondered why I knew I needed to do something, realised this was a thing and I also had class at 9, posted and then got up for class, checked back when I started to catch up

##vote Xorxes

How long were you monitoring the thread without posting before voting in the last minute?

Very close to EOD. Only just had time to vote to save myself when i discovered the vote count

Considering the mafia day chat, the mafia would likely plan to be online at EOD to discuss what to do if necessary, so I think believing these claims by Nephthys and damo means believing they are town. However, I have trouble believing either claim.

[damo666]

Don't forget that Vecna is still voting for xorx despite the bot.

It's not impossible mafia would use the +1 here if the JOAT is someone who could be under pressure like xorx, damo, or Neph.

I doubt that's something to worry about. Doesn't seem likely to have been activated D1 imo.

[worcej]

There is some Schadenfreude in seeing worcej angry at a GM's mechanics and setup

It's a combo of feeling helpless and annoyance at a lot of things that has happened this game.

[foodcoats]

@worcej I thought it was poor form for people to criticize your setup in thread, I believe I even chided Chaqa for it, and same here.

I don't know much (/anything) about mafia game balancing but I assume it is insanely fucking hard because the dataset is always going to be so small and certainly roles are swingy as fuck (e.g. Vig).

For example if I had shot summit, we would now be lynching xorxes and then onto Tom and winning.



But I dunno maybe all this should be discussed in the mafia master post and/or a new thread where webdippers can discuss mafia game balancing?

BACK TO LYNCHING NEPHTHYS

OH WAIT

NO

THAT'S A DOMINATED STRATEGY

YA DUMB FUCKS

[bozotheclown]

That is another reason why we should just wait until we have that information to resolve summit/Vecna. If no Vigs or Vig targets were commuted, it is 50/50 between summit/Vecna for me.

Yes, but what happens if at EOD we are told by one person that they didn't and then a CC comes in and says the opposite. We are @ mylo tomorrow - which one do you believe?

We would have to determine which one is more likely to be town. I would take that chance, which is why I think the mafia won't counterclaim.

[worcej]

There is some Schadenfreude in seeing worcej angry at a GM's mechanics and setup

Also, I intentionally fucked with you all last game but indeed it played out very town sided due to rdr's unfortunate demise.

[worcej]

That is another reason why we should just wait until we have that information to resolve summit/Vecna. If no Vigs or Vig targets were commuted, it is 50/50 between summit/Vecna for me.

Yes, but what happens if at EOD we are told by one person that they didn't and then a CC comes in and says the opposite. We are @ mylo tomorrow - which one do you believe?

We would have to determine which one is more likely to be town. I would take that chance, which is why I think the mafia won't counterclaim.

It depends, the goon could counter claim and if we get it wrong they still win.

of course this all assume we get today wrong.

[Chaqa]

Okay, my thoughts after thinking a bit about day 1

Scum would above all else want a mislynch, and not want a scum lynch. The tie vote means it's extremely likely 1-2 scum were on the chopping block in damo/xorxes. If both were town, I can't imagine why a tie would happen.

So, let's look at circumstances.
Case 1: xorxes is scum, damo is town
In this case, I would expect scum to have shifted to damo. The fact they didn't would imply if xorxes is scum, his partners were already voting for damo, or were Neph/EMC.

So, if xorx is scum, his teammates have to be in the group: {kgray, Tom, summit, EMC, Neph}

Case 2: xorxes is town, damo is scum
Likewise logically, if damo is scum, his teammates have to be in the group: {foodcoats, Bozo, worcej, Chaqa, EMC, Neph}

Case 3: both are scum
In this case... the scum could be anyone, really, so It's probably not worth analyzing.

The above would imply EMC(Vecna) / Neph to be logically good lynches.

Worcej says he shot EMC. I don't see why anyone would commute an AFK EMC, so seems unlikely he was Judicated. The scum pairing logic combined with that would make EMC/Vecna a pretty strong candidate fo scum on review.

Really, we need to know which of xorx and damo is scum. One of them has to be. Both of them *can* be. Once we figure that out we can sort this puzzle out.

[worcej]

@worcej I thought it was poor form for people to criticize your setup in thread, I believe I even chided Chaqa for it, and same here.

I don't know much (/anything) about mafia game balancing but I assume it is insanely fucking hard because the dataset is always going to be so small and certainly roles are swingy as fuck (e.g. Vig).

For example if I had shot summit, we would now be lynching xorxes and then onto Tom and winning.



But I dunno maybe all this should be discussed in the mafia master post and/or a new thread where webdippers can discuss mafia game balancing?

BACK TO LYNCHING NEPHTHYS

OH WAIT

NO

THAT'S A DOMINATED STRATEGY

YA DUMB FUCKS

You can think what you want, but I am openly lamenting my frustration because I am exactly that: frustrated.

Luck plays a lot into the setup of any game - if we would've luckily commuted the NK'er, then we nailed a scum immediately.

Regardless, there is no good place to complain about setups other than the game themselves because the host GM needs to see the 'oh crap, didn't think that through' idea/issue to get better for the future. I think Jamie is pretty good at making setups, but we all make mistakes and don't realize the interactions that could occur when you design a game until it's played.

[bozotheclown]

Welp pack it in boys we're busted.

It would be nice if you addressed the rest of my post.

I don't think I'm wrong. But, I admit I could be. I am, though, willing to stake my reputation on it. (I have no reputation, though, so this is more like... trying to usurp the bench.)

XORSUMTOM
XORSUMTOM
DEEP BENEATH THE EARTH
HEAR THE HOWL
THE BLACKEST MASS
THE BLACKEST
MASS
*blast beats*
*frenetic guitar solo*
XORSUMTOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

The whole reason I am pushing to lynch damo or xorxes and get it over and done with is because it is such an information-rich lynch, on top of being correct both factually (I believe I am right that strongly) and strategically. I am not going to give up on my xorxes scumread just because xorxes has had time to get his scumlegs. I have had a lot of success as scum at convincing people that lynching me is wrong. xorxes is a convincing guy, why should he bad at scum? And I need the flip because as I've said it was NEVER TvT there.

OK

##VOTE xorxes

[bozotheclown]

I do not like damo's late D1 vote, but I still suspect xorxes from D1.

[damo666]

To those dismissing D1 TvT out of hand

Maybe my last minute* vote simply caught scum off guard?


* @bozo I repeat this was not intentionally late, I saw the vote status really late and switched to self preserve [there was the added bonus that someone else just might have switched to scumXorxes but self preservation was foremost in my mind ].

[Chaqa]

I do not like damo's late D1 vote, but I still suspect xorxes from D1.

Bozo, are you saying you would not vote to self-preserve if in that situation?

[bozotheclown]

Towny:

bozo - I don't thing he puts in all this effort as scum especially this early
rivera - starnge for me to townread him, but when he gets all huffy and puffy he is very likely town
emc - good observations that I associate with his town self
Tom - being sensible

Leftovers:

kgray - possibly town (she's playing nothing like she played as scum)
summit - possibly town. He was very suspicious of me most of last game, so his attitude this game fits with what I know of him.
Neph - nothing really

Heebie jeebies:

damo - him scumreading me this early is highly unusual, I don't recall it ever happening before even when I was scum, and certainly not when I'm town
Chaqa - he is not saying anything, and what he says I don't like
worcej - his vote for me, yikes, especially after what he said a couple of posts earlier

Scummy:

foocoats - his case on me is way too elaborate for the scant material he had to work with. I don't believe he actually misread the tone of my vote for Neph as badly as he portrays

I do not like how xorxes set up a move to damo or worcej when he had not previously scum read either, or how it looks likes he was trying to get emc's unplaced vote to go his way.

[bozotheclown]

I do not like damo's late D1 vote, but I still suspect xorxes from D1.

Bozo, are you saying you would not vote to self-preserve if in that situation?

I would, but I would also try to make a case for people not to vote for me. damo had not posted for 38 minutes when he voted, and he waited as long as possible before tying the vote. To believe damo is town, you have to believe he was away for those 38 minutes, and came online to vote to save himself with a time margin less than a minute.