The massive drop-out rates due to delays

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Kremmen
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The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#1 Post by Kremmen » Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:06 pm

The excused missed turn system has made a mess of most World games I've been part of since. Even set to zero, the delays are off-putting and there is a snow-ball effect: One player after another drops out and more players get disenchanted and drop out. Even some of the replacements drop out. The average number of original players sticking with a game is now greatly reduced from what it used to be.

One result of this is that replacement players join those games and immediately click "draw" in the hope of grabbing some free points. Then the game devolves into a meta-game about killing anyone who doesn't want to draw.

e.g. game 258595
I am the only original player left. The 11 others, all replacements, voted for a 12-way draw. 2 died last turn, so we're down to 9 voting for a 10-way draw now. Unsurprisingly, some of those who are on the chopping block are screaming "We should all turn on the people who don’t vote draw."

It may be worth noting that in this particular case above, the delays were exacerbated by a mod pausing the game for a week with no explanation. Immediately after it was unpaused, 5 countries NMR'd at once. (I'd have thought it should have been pretty obvious that pausing a game for a week during the Xmas period when people have free time to play would be devastating to the game!) However, even so, this isn't even the worst example I've seen. I've seen a game with 14+ people voting draw when all 17 players were still alive.

Is this what a Diplomacy game is supposed to be about? Just a points-grabbing exercise where we draw every World game with at least 10 players still in it? That's what happens when almost nobody has any vested interest in a game any more. My question for those who implemented the excused missed turn system is this: How did you intend to deal with the subsequent effect on many World games due to the massive delays?
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Chaqa
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#2 Post by Chaqa » Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:42 pm

Don't play World Dip. There's a reason it's seldom played anymore.
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foodcoats
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#3 Post by foodcoats » Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:01 am

This makes me want to play some World Dip....
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Wusti
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#4 Post by Wusti » Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:40 pm

Yes Chaqa and he just outlined one of them. Why completely screw an endorsed variant for such limited gain?

qrzy
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#5 Post by qrzy » Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:23 pm

Solution:

Required Reliability: 100%

And of course high bet.
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#6 Post by Octavious » Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:57 pm

No one would join. Who'd risk a 100% reliability rating on a world game that could easily turn into a farce that locks you in for months? And a high bet just encourages the scavengers.

The closest thing to a solution I can see is to make it possible to create zero bet games so you can remove the motivation of point harvesters.
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qrzy
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#7 Post by qrzy » Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:24 pm

Octavious wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:57 pm
No one would join. Who'd risk a 100% reliability rating on a world game that could easily turn into a farce that locks you in for months? And a high bet just encourages the scavengers.

The closest thing to a solution I can see is to make it possible to create zero bet games so you can remove the motivation of point harvesters.

If no one join, the scavengers cannot take over any position.
If nobody would join to a world game, then nobody plays this variant with 100% rating????? I cannot belive that.
With reliable players there are no CD-s and scavengers.
With high bet beginners with high rating cannot join.
Very interesting, but many times when I join as a scavenger, many other people wants to draw, but be.

jmo1121109
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#8 Post by jmo1121109 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:45 pm

So you can

1. Make games unranked, so there's no point bet.

2. Make games with the hidden draw option so you can't see who isn't voting draw.

Sounds like either of those would largely solve the issue described above. Though I did see in that game that 6 of the CD'ed people were banned, another 5 look like they went CD when a mod made a mistake and didn't reset the game phase before unpausing. The assertion that world games were good before excused missed turns isn't right either, I just did a quick check and they were averaging over 7 CD's a game since their inception. I'll take a look and see if that number went drastically up after the release of excused missed turns, but I'm not hearing any issue that isn't pretty easily solvable in game creation options.
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#9 Post by bo_sox48 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:14 pm

To parrot off of jmo's analytical solution presented above, I'd like to offer my own anecdotal opinion that "World sucks" isn't exactly news. I have played a fair number of games of every variant on this site and World is by far my least favorite for a number of reasons, including those that you described. If you enjoy playing it, that is well and good, but if you play public world games you must understand and trust that 16 players - most of whom are likely not of the experienced/committed/understanding of Diplomacy etiquette bunch we know we have here - will make moves every phase, communicate properly, and be sound tactically. Additionally, you must accept that of those 16 other players, some of them may be in it for different reasons than you are, and thus design your play style with their end goals in mind - or at least make them think you're doing so. That is kind of the point of Diplomacy.

To add to jmo's answer to your final question, the excused missed turn system was designed to minimize the number of replacements that would be necessary over the course of a game. In doing so, I imagine that that would lessen the "points-grabbing" players you have to deal with. In that way the new system is beneficial, and if players do end up being replaced then there is no effective difference in that sense between this system and the old CD system.
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Kremmen
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#10 Post by Kremmen » Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:22 am

jmo1121109 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:45 pm
So you can
1. Make games unranked, so there's no point bet.
2. Make games with the hidden draw option so you can't see who isn't voting draw.

Sounds like either of those would largely solve the issue described above. Though I did see in that game that 6 of the CD'ed people were banned, another 5 look like they went CD when a mod made a mistake and didn't reset the game phase before unpausing. The assertion that world games were good before excused missed turns isn't right either, I just did a quick check and they were averaging over 7 CD's a game since their inception. I'll take a look and see if that number went drastically up after the release of excused missed turns, but I'm not hearing any issue that isn't pretty easily solvable in game creation options.
One of the issues is that World games require 17 players and regularly fail to get that many signed up. Most people don't sign up for unranked games at all. (Myself included.) Yes, ideally they should be created with 80% RR or higher and zero excused missed turns, but then if you don't get sufficient takers, people create games with more relaxed settings.

I totally agree about the hidden draw option. I'd never seen it become an issue before, because I'd never seen the snowball effect go this far as to have N-1 players voting to draw for such a large value of N.

7 CD's per game average is fantastic compared to now. Of the 3 World games I'm currently playing, 7, 13 and 15 players have been replaced at least once. Taking into account the ones that have been replaced multiple times (it's hard to keep track until the end, when we can see the list) I think the average is close to 15 per game. Of course, World games have never been perfect, but at least they used to regularly run to what I would call a logical conclusion, rather than the majority just wanting to end them because of the enormous amount of extra time they are taking.

(7 CDs before cost no actual time, as processing went ahead. 15 CDs now costs up to 15 days, or a multiple of that if there are >0 excused missed turns. The game with 13+ replacements has 3 excused missed turns. That's months of delay.)

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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#11 Post by Nephthys » Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:04 am

Kremmen wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:22 am
jmo1121109 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:45 pm
So you can
1. Make games unranked, so there's no point bet.
2. Make games with the hidden draw option so you can't see who isn't voting draw.

Sounds like either of those would largely solve the issue described above. Though I did see in that game that 6 of the CD'ed people were banned, another 5 look like they went CD when a mod made a mistake and didn't reset the game phase before unpausing. The assertion that world games were good before excused missed turns isn't right either, I just did a quick check and they were averaging over 7 CD's a game since their inception. I'll take a look and see if that number went drastically up after the release of excused missed turns, but I'm not hearing any issue that isn't pretty easily solvable in game creation options.
One of the issues is that World games require 17 players and regularly fail to get that many signed up. Most people don't sign up for unranked games at all. (Myself included.) Yes, ideally they should be created with 80% RR or higher and zero excused missed turns, but then if you don't get sufficient takers, people create games with more relaxed settings.

I totally agree about the hidden draw option. I'd never seen it become an issue before, because I'd never seen the snowball effect go this far as to have N-1 players voting to draw for such a large value of N.

7 CD's per game average is fantastic compared to now. Of the 3 World games I'm currently playing, 7, 13 and 15 players have been replaced at least once. Taking into account the ones that have been replaced multiple times (it's hard to keep track until the end, when we can see the list) I think the average is close to 15 per game. Of course, World games have never been perfect, but at least they used to regularly run to what I would call a logical conclusion, rather than the majority just wanting to end them because of the enormous amount of extra time they are taking.

(7 CDs before cost no actual time, as processing went ahead. 15 CDs now costs up to 15 days, or a multiple of that if there are >0 excused missed turns. The game with 13+ replacements has 3 excused missed turns. That's months of delay.)
But having the game progress as normal with the number of CDs you mention breaks the game. It turns it into luck as to who benefits the most from the two missed turns.

Perhaps if I could suggest you start a thread here looking for dedicated World players and go about it that way? Seems like you could gauge interest and perhaps get regular games going?
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Kremmen
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#12 Post by Kremmen » Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:57 pm

Nephthys wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:04 am
But having the game progress as normal with the number of CDs you mention breaks the game. It turns it into luck as to who benefits the most from the two missed turns.
That really depends. Most CDs, in my experience, (I haven't run any stats on it) used to be from those in hopeless positions (say, 2 SCs or less) wandering off. Having turns progress as normal in that situation doesn't break the game. It makes things slightly easier for whoever was killing them anyhow. Doubling the number of CDs, however, does break the game, especially as those CDs are coming from almost every country in some cases, therefore necessarily including major powers. When someone new comes along, everyone has to renegotiate and it can totally change the complexion of a game.

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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#13 Post by GalahadIII » Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:53 am

I know some reliable folks who would probably be up for a good world game. I know I would be up for it.
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#14 Post by qrzy » Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:42 pm

Kremmen wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:57 pm
Nephthys wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:04 am
But having the game progress as normal with the number of CDs you mention breaks the game. It turns it into luck as to who benefits the most from the two missed turns.
That really depends. Most CDs, in my experience, (I haven't run any stats on it) used to be from those in hopeless positions (say, 2 SCs or less) wandering off. Having turns progress as normal in that situation doesn't break the game. It makes things slightly easier for whoever was killing them anyhow. Doubling the number of CDs, however, does break the game, especially as those CDs are coming from almost every country in some cases, therefore necessarily including major powers. When someone new comes along, everyone has to renegotiate and it can totally change the complexion of a game.
Like in the real life. foreign policy changes often at the time of the change of power. Let's see China (1949), Russia (1917,1989), Iran (1953,1979), USA (2017), Italy (1922,1943)

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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#15 Post by Kremmen » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:01 pm

jmo1121109 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:45 pm
I just did a quick check and they were averaging over 7 CD's a game since their inception. I'll take a look and see if that number went drastically up after the release of excused missed turns, but I'm not hearing any issue that isn't pretty easily solvable in game creation options.
I've taken a look at World games I've been in. 17 is drastically more than 7.

Average number of CDs per game:
2015: 4.0
2016: 9.4
2017: 8.0
2018: 4.3
2019: 7.0
2020: 17.0
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Claesar
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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#16 Post by Claesar » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:14 pm

Kremmen wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:01 pm
jmo1121109 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:45 pm
I just did a quick check and they were averaging over 7 CD's a game since their inception. I'll take a look and see if that number went drastically up after the release of excused missed turns, but I'm not hearing any issue that isn't pretty easily solvable in game creation options.
I've taken a look at World games I've been in. 17 is drastically more than 7.

Average number of CDs per game:
2015: 4.0
2016: 9.4
2017: 8.0
2018: 4.3
2019: 7.0
2020: 17.0
You played only one game in 2019. Not a great sample size.

I appreciate you didn't include that one live World game in the statistics, but you did count two dummy accounts that were in the game for about a minute (an artifact of moderator business). In my opinion you also shouldn't count the banned players as those are not actual CDs; it's just a testament of increased moderator activity.

Nonetheless I agree that these results suggest an increased amount of CDs in World games.

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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#17 Post by Kremmen » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:58 am

Claesar wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:14 pm
You played only one game in 2019. Not a great sample size.
I was counting them by end date, which makes it two in 2019. They both had 7 CDs. (If you shift one of them back into 2018, it raises the 2018 average to 4.8.)

Doesn't much matter. The total sample is almost 30 games.

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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#18 Post by Franz_o_Sissy » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:33 pm

The practice of new players taking over the vacated places of other players, I find, does have a major impact on the gaming experience of each involved player. I agree that in real life a change of policy is also seen when a politician for one or other reason, leaves his post. But in real life, the metamorphosis is a process that takes a long time to transpire. Whereas in the game, it is very abrupt and, I want to say it again to stress this point, the effects are enormous.
Maybe so called 'bots' can be used to have these down-side aspects of "drop-out" phenomenon not be so grave as they are at present.

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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#19 Post by qrzy » Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:10 am

Franz_o_Sissy wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:33 pm
The practice of new players taking over the vacated places of other players, I find, does have a major impact on the gaming experience of each involved player. I agree that in real life a change of policy is also seen when a politician for one or other reason, leaves his post. But in real life, the metamorphosis is a process that takes a long time to transpire. Whereas in the game, it is very abrupt and, I want to say it again to stress this point, the effects are enormous.
Maybe so called 'bots' can be used to have these down-side aspects of "drop-out" phenomenon not be so grave as they are at present.
Half year is quite long time. ;-)

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Re: The massive drop-out rates due to delays

#20 Post by Kremmen » Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:44 am

New record for me. Just finished a World game with 33 CDs.

That makes my 2020 average (excluding silly live game): 22.3
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