MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

What diagrams, EMC? I'm curious.

Sorry I haven't been doing more, but Tom nailing two scum has kinda disinterested me in the solving aspect momentarily. Once the Purple flip and another night of deaths, I'll try to figure some stuff out, but it's nice to have a bit of a break and relax for a day or two.

##Vote purplecow

I'm very curious to see just what has happened during the nights to prevent so many deaths.

[Chaqa]

A quick skim of Days 1 & 2 don't reveal much helpful voting by Purple or Rivera, or much helpful in who they voted for. Purple did vote Vecna, so that's a very minor thing, but overall it's hard to say.

[Vecna]

In this thread: all team b scum putting on their best acting performances

Hope youre getting something out of this Tom. Feels like a giant waste of time though and im pretty sure youre giving everyone an excuse to just votepark on town for most of the day.

[Jamiet99uk]

Vote Count 4.1

purplecow(8) - ND, DemonRHK, xorxes, Temasek22, BionicMole, purplecow, CmdrLikely, Chaqa
DemonRHK(2) - bozotheclown, KalelChase

Currently PURPLECOW is set to be lynched.

36 hours and 28 minutes remain in Day Four.

[Kitsune]

Alright, DemonRHK is currently top (only) wagon at the time of writing and my gut (:P @ dargo) says Temasek and Bozotheclown are probably but not certainly correct that he is the last member of Moriarty’s team - but I’m not certain that makes him our best lynch today, or at least not without careful examination of who precisely is so very eager to see him and his potential nk dead.

Going in to D5 with 10 town, 3 maf (on one team) and 1 Jack is not precisely lylo but it would be a much cleaner playing field for Burke and Hare’s team than they faced at the start of the game.

At the time of writing, the wagon on Demon is:

Xorxes
Bozotheclown
DemonRHK
Temasek22
KalelChase

Discounting Demon’s suicide pill as the tactical vote he says it is, that gives us four people to look at and I’ll approach them in alphabetical order.

Bozotheclown
Instinct read: Scum based on meta

P1-3 he is exploring Jack’s mechanics and determining his threat profile (NAI, 3P focus could just be exploring role new to the game).

P4-16ish he is pushing a weak mechanics-driven case against Jekyll/Hyde but is less monomaniacal than usual, allowing himself to be dissuaded by a general Town sense that Jekyll does more good than harm. Seems to be trying to encourage J/H to claim early (scummy for being less driven than usual, scummy for pushing early doctor claim).

He does let himself get drawn into picking at Rdr’s posts early, first correcting him and then suggesting he might be pocketing xorxes here:
viewtopic.php?p=114738#p114738

P26-EoN1 he gets pulled in to defending his play in previous games and then vote-flipping between Vapor and Computer as low activity targets in a poor position to defend themselves.

Vapor, we now know, was Sherlock.
Computer’s slot has now been replaced by Yazu (claims VT, consistent with twice-subbed role).

Fairly high activity in early N1 (town points) getting quiet as he draws close to EoN. (NAI)

D2 p44 - p76 he doesn’t… really… say anything. Lots of short posts asking small questions and then not following up, and engages lightly with the Chaqa - ND double-Jekyll controversy. Argues that we need to lynch one of them which is mildly consistent with previous view that Dr Jekyll is bad for town but still scummy.

Sidebar: Logically exposed Hyde would prefer to target scum if he can. If he’s seen to be targeting town PRs he will get lynched.

P76 - EoD2 He chases Frostwind in the name of hunting Bob’s team-mate. This is townie on the face of it, but in a multi-mafia format could also indicate the rival Mafia team. (NAI)

Frost dies and flips Vanilla town.

N2-D3 He returns to Yazu, questioning his VT claim, reassuring him about the odds of the Jack mechanic, chatting with xorxes and Einstein and Tom… and then votes for Yazu anyway.

He gets drawn off towards the end of the day into the Tom - Rdr confrontation, but is a bit more mentally alert than I am at that point and swings from a Tom vote to Rdr after Tom claims. NAI.

N3 He discusses the night’s topic (whether we should be talking or not, for some reason) and then engages briefly with Vecna and Xorxes but without any particular aggression. He seems like town just waiting for dawn.

P126 (a MINUTE before Dawn) he calls out DemonRHK for bussing rdr and Bob on the basis that he scum-read them both very early before any coordination would be possible - and the fact that he didn’t vote for either of them (bozo notes - I have not verified this) certainly feels indicative. However this is a bold assertion to make just before EoN given that there are multiple chances that he could be about to die unless Bozo was already on one scum team and was pretty sure Demon was on the other, reducing the chances to 1 nk (possibly roleblocked, although ND has not confirmed this).

D4 (to time of writing) he keeps focusing on Demon which simply doesn’t make sense in a dual mafa game. Demon is extremely vulnerable to Mafia 2 nightkill and will likely focus his own nk on perceived threats, not to trying to wipe out a large town faction that can lynch him with mafia 2’s enthusiastic support until quite late.

Read: Bozo on Mafia Team 2


##Vote Purplecow

[xorxes]

otoh, however, Dargo's capable of some rather good insight. Dargo, wanna share any?

What do you make of his long tirade about Tom claiming too early? Good insight, or try-hard nonsense?

[xorxes]

In this thread: all team b scum putting on their best acting performances

Hope youre getting something out of this Tom. Feels like a giant waste of time though and im pretty sure youre giving everyone an excuse to just votepark on town for most of the day.

[xorxes]

I haven't read Kit's wall yet, saving it for later when I have more time.

For now, let's run some numbers, with worst case night scenarios:

D4: 12-3-1-1 We lynch last Moriarty,
N4: Two dead townies, Jack +1F
D5: 10-3-1 We lynch from Mafia1
N5: Two dead townies
D6: 8-2-1 We lynch from Mafia1
N6: Two dead townies, Jack +2F
D7: 6-1-1 We lynch last Mafia1
N7: one dead townie
D8: 5-1 Jack potential lylo

So we can't afford any mislynches if everything goes well for Jack.

Two plans to consider:

(1) Full massclaim now

This means lynching scum every time is very doable, as they will be forced to choose what to claim without a lot of info on what will be best for them. It does give Jack a lot of easty choices, but we still beat them if we don't mislynch.

(2) mini massclaim of male VTs now

There's only three left. This gives us three clears, or if more than three people claim it gives us a reduced pool and the fake claims are often easy to spot. It increases Jack's chances of hitting females, but it also increases the chances thet they hit scum.

Thoughts?

[Tom Bombadil]

So to get ahead of any ideas of mass claim....


I didn’t scan purple. It’s our job now to figure out the reactions. Three people knew I was lying because I was roleblocked. For what it’s worth, I got a towny reaction from purple from this. The sketchiest reaction is from DemonRHK who looks to be either coaching scumbuddies by saying “why weren’t you roleblocked” or just making a really bad comment as town.

[Kitsune]

Initial thought is "fake/real townslip"?

Ignoring whether or now I scumread you X (your ISO is coming, which I kind of dread with how prolific you've been), Moriarty's team is Mafia1 and Burke's is Mafia2.

That said. I think a mini massclaim could be interesting and I like your projections for the kills (assuming Mafia start having more luck with their kills than they have so far).

[xorxes]

It wasn't as indigestible as it seemed it would be:

P126 (a MINUTE before Dawn) he calls out DemonRHK for bussing rdr and Bob on the basis that he scum-read them both very early before any coordination would be possible - and the fact that he didn’t vote for either of them (bozo notes - I have not verified this) certainly feels indicative. However this is a bold assertion to make just before EoN given that there are multiple chances that he could be about to die unless Bozo was already on one scum team and was pretty sure Demon was on the other, reducing the chances to 1 nk (possibly roleblocked, although ND has not confirmed this).

I don't understand your point here. Given that there was a chance he would die, doesn't it make perfect sense as town to get this out before EON?

D4 (to time of writing) he keeps focusing on Demon which simply doesn’t make sense in a dual mafa game. Demon is extremely vulnerable to Mafia 2 nightkill and will likely focus his own nk on perceived threats, not to trying to wipe out a large town faction that can lynch him with mafia 2’s enthusiastic support until quite late.

Read: Bozo on Mafia Team 2

Do you really believe Mafia2 will target a strong Mafia1 candidate? Really? Think about it.

[Kitsune]

So to get ahead of any ideas of mass claim....


I didn’t scan purple. It’s our job now to figure out the reactions. Three people knew I was lying because I was roleblocked. For what it’s worth, I got a towny reaction from purple from this. The sketchiest reaction is from DemonRHK who looks to be either coaching scumbuddies by saying “why weren’t you roleblocked” or just making a really bad comment as town.

Damn it Tom, again?

Going to wait to react to react to your next dramatic revelations at least until I finish what I'm trying to do.

Going back to my own scum read at least until I've done more digging.

##vote bozotheclown

[xorxes]

So to get ahead of any ideas of mass claim....


I didn’t scan purple. It’s our job now to figure out the reactions. Three people knew I was lying because I was roleblocked. For what it’s worth, I got a towny reaction from purple from this. The sketchiest reaction is from DemonRHK who looks to be either coaching scumbuddies by saying “why weren’t you roleblocked” or just making a really bad comment as town.

Yeah, it was a bit too obvious, but worth trying.

Back to ##VOTE DemonRHK

[Kitsune]

It wasn't as indigestible as it seemed it would be:

P126 (a MINUTE before Dawn) he calls out DemonRHK for bussing rdr and Bob on the basis that he scum-read them both very early before any coordination would be possible - and the fact that he didn’t vote for either of them (bozo notes - I have not verified this) certainly feels indicative. However this is a bold assertion to make just before EoN given that there are multiple chances that he could be about to die unless Bozo was already on one scum team and was pretty sure Demon was on the other, reducing the chances to 1 nk (possibly roleblocked, although ND has not confirmed this).

I don't understand your point here. Given that there was a chance he would die, doesn't it make perfect sense as town to get this out before EON?

D4 (to time of writing) he keeps focusing on Demon which simply doesn’t make sense in a dual mafa game. Demon is extremely vulnerable to Mafia 2 nightkill and will likely focus his own nk on perceived threats, not to trying to wipe out a large town faction that can lynch him with mafia 2’s enthusiastic support until quite late.

Read: Bozo on Mafia Team 2

Do you really believe Mafia2 will target a strong Mafia1 candidate? Really? Think about it.

1. I guess the point I'm trying to make here is it didn't feel weighty enough to be a prepared "here are my final wish and testament", and he followed up less than fifteen minutes later. The vibe I got from that was that it was the start of a push, which implied he knew he and his target were going to be around to keep pushing. Idk. Maybe I'm wrong, but it's how I read it.

2. Yes. Maybe not immediately (they'd prefer Town get winnowed down until we do it) but having a known rival target they can simply kill (if Jack doesn't do it first as a highly likely Female target) has to be part of their endgame.

[xorxes]

Initial thought is "fake/real townslip"?

Ignoring whether or now I scumread you X (your ISO is coming, which I kind of dread with how prolific you've been), Moriarty's team is Mafia1 and Burke's is Mafia2.

No slip either way, just distraction. I knew Moriarty was 1 and the other was 2.

That said. I think a mini massclaim could be interesting and I like your projections for the kills (assuming Mafia start having more luck with their kills than they have so far).

Yes, it assumes worst case nightkills. There could be fewer kills for many reasons.

[Vecna]

I haven't read Kit's wall yet, saving it for later when I have more time.

For now, let's run some numbers, with worst case night scenarios:

D4: 12-3-1-1 We lynch last Moriarty,
N4: Two dead townies, Jack +1F
D5: 10-3-1 We lynch from Mafia1
N5: Two dead townies
D6: 8-2-1 We lynch from Mafia1
N6: Two dead townies, Jack +2F
D7: 6-1-1 We lynch last Mafia1
N7: one dead townie
D8: 5-1 Jack potential lylo

So we can't afford any mislynches if everything goes well for Jack.

Two plans to consider:

(1) Full massclaim now

This means lynching scum every time is very doable, as they will be forced to choose what to claim without a lot of info on what will be best for them. It does give Jack a lot of easty choices, but we still beat them if we don't mislynch.

(2) mini massclaim of male VTs now

There's only three left. This gives us three clears, or if more than three people claim it gives us a reduced pool and the fake claims are often easy to spot. It increases Jack's chances of hitting females, but it also increases the chances thet they hit scum.

Thoughts?

Ive been given it some thought as well during the night phase.

Three thoughts on this with trying to minimize giving scum ideas on what to claim in case we do decide on this:

1: Doing this today may or may not be optimal because the SK kills tonight. If we claim too much we have exactly 5 lynches to find the SK. Worst case scenario the SK pool will be 9.
2: Claiming something, but especially claiming everything, will make it very easy for the scum/sk/Hyde to coordinate and wipe out town. Theyll be able to deduce the pool in which the other scum team, and the SK are hiding in, and kill outside of it. Some double kills will still happen, but it severely reduces the chance for random scum/sk nightkills.
3: Scumteam B still has all their roles in tact. Even if we lynch the SK in those 5 days, they can steal his knife and have 1.5 kills. The RB might also be troublesome if they can deduce our doctor.

[xorxes]

2. Yes. Maybe not immediately (they'd prefer Town get winnowed down until we do it) but having a known rival target they can simply kill (if Jack doesn't do it first as a highly likely Female target) has to be part of their endgame.

That's a good point. Jack might very well want to target them. It still means we risk one more nightkill which will probably be targeted as town.

[xorxes]

3: Scumteam B still has all their roles in tact. Even if we lynch the SK in those 5 days, they can steal his knife and have 1.5 kills. The RB might also be troublesome if they can deduce our doctor.

They can't use the knife against town, can they?

I guess they could use it against Jekyll, but then it reduces the number of nightkills. And Jack will have to be dead by then.

So I'm not really worried about them stealing Jack's knife.

[bozotheclown]

I haven't read Kit's wall yet, saving it for later when I have more time.

For now, let's run some numbers, with worst case night scenarios:

D4: 12-3-1-1 We lynch last Moriarty,
N4: Two dead townies, Jack +1F
D5: 10-3-1 We lynch from Mafia1
N5: Two dead townies
D6: 8-2-1 We lynch from Mafia1
N6: Two dead townies, Jack +2F
D7: 6-1-1 We lynch last Mafia1
N7: one dead townie
D8: 5-1 Jack potential lylo

So we can't afford any mislynches if everything goes well for Jack.

Two plans to consider:

(1) Full massclaim now

This means lynching scum every time is very doable, as they will be forced to choose what to claim without a lot of info on what will be best for them. It does give Jack a lot of easty choices, but we still beat them if we don't mislynch.

(2) mini massclaim of male VTs now

There's only three left. This gives us three clears, or if more than three people claim it gives us a reduced pool and the fake claims are often easy to spot. It increases Jack's chances of hitting females, but it also increases the chances thet they hit scum.

Thoughts?

This certainly shows why it is important to get the last Moriarty mafia today. It also assumes that we do get the last Moriarty today, although I think that is a good assumption. I think the biggest risk with either claim option is that the SK will have a much better chance of killing 3 females by N8 if we do not lynch him before then. Also, it is not guaranteed we won't mislynch, whether the remaining mafia and SK all claim VT, or if one or more try to go for a 1 vs. 1 PR claim. Any mislynch further increases the chances of the SK surviving until N8.

[DemonRHK]

JFC Tom, double fucking retraction from our strongest PR. I’m legit not going to be shocked if you full retract next.

##Vote Kalel