MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[yavuzovic]

"On EVEN numbered nights, you may perform a Night Kill using your KNIFE (item) on any player. If you target Mr. Hyde, your attack will fail. 

You win the game if either of the following points is reached:

1. You have personally killed THREE female characters with your knife, by any point in the game."

With good assumptions, it's very easy to kill a female character. Even if we say he misses 1 or 2, it's very likely to win on day 5 and later.
I don't know how we can do that, but we should give priority to SK, than mafia. Maybe a mafia member can sacrifice himself to help their own team.

[KalelChase]

OK...I'm off for a bit. If somebody else (Einstein? Tom? KITSUNE?!?!?!?!) wants to do a dive on Bionic. Something smells off there and I'd like some more in depth analysis soon.

Bionic synopsis as requested...

D1 21 posts, W/post 58.24 (Vote Bunny, then Un, then Comp_Genius (now Bo)
o Bunny vote was for lurking
o Comp_G was for being absent and having no history with
- Early post trolling Bunny (about wanting him trolled ironically)
- commenting on rules and English dialects
+ called Chaqa's claim out as 'has to be kidding' but why
+ Works through theory that Bozo and Chaq are working together with e.m.c., they both eventual dismiss
- Interesting post #489 consists of a lot of vague gut (it is the first day).
+/- Disagreement with Flav on lynching lurkers (he's pro, Flav against)

N1 4 posts, W/post 42.50
+ 3 crap posts and then one 'good' one doing some analysis on who was driving the bus(es): Vape buss driven by Damo? Or Purple?

D2 29 posts, W/post 36.66 (Vote Chaqa, then Un, then Chaqa. Flop, but justified? didn't like fake claim)
+/- Defends Bozo's vote switching
+ A couple of push back/question posts to Xorxes, Frost, Chaqa and Flav
- Calls out a potential scum partnership that includes Frost.
- Jumps to Tom B's Defense after Flav jumps on Tom "Get off his nuts man."
+/- Scum reading Flav (including claiming a 'slip')
+ Pushes Commander on his statement "I was trying my best to be town"
Spent a lot of time talking about work schedule and trying to catch-up on reading.

N2 4 posts, W/post 23.35
+/- Accepts ComdrLikely as Town(lean)

That's all I got, but seems to be genuinely hunting.

Of course, as it's been pointed out, and probably one of the things that really messing with my weights... everyone can be scum hunting right now, so most everyone is going to be some percentage perceived as town. I thought two teams of town would be scarier because two kills, but it's really scarier because it's harder to tell them apart from us.

[bozotheclown]

Thank you bozo, but

ISN'T THAT TOO EASY FOR JACK THE RIPPER?
There are more female characters than I expected and only 3 is enough?

He only kills on even nights, so even if he went 3/3, he would not win until N6, and with less than 50% female, the chance of going 3/3 is low (less than 12.5%).

[BunnyGo]

Thank you bozo, but

ISN'T THAT TOO EASY FOR JACK THE RIPPER?
There are more female characters than I expected and only 3 is enough?

He only gets a NK on even nights. And only a 50-50 shot at female when hitti Nd VT (100% when hitting VS)

[yavuzovic]

Thank you bozo, but

ISN'T THAT TOO EASY FOR JACK THE RIPPER?
There are more female characters than I expected and only 3 is enough?

He only kills on even nights, so even if he went 3/3, he would not win until N6, and with less than 50% female, the chance of going 3/3 is low (less than 12.5%).

Oh you are correct, though he isn't going to shoot blindly and therefore it's higher than 12.5%

[bozotheclown]

I still honestly don't see it, Xorxes. Who should scum target? PRs if they know them. Otherwise, probably "good" players who say they know stuff but aren't sharing yet. Sounds about right to me. If you think that's not a priority target, then we play scum very differently.

In the post referenced by xorxes:

lol, ##Vote ND

I don't believe any of this, and tbh I think getting rid of him as a policy lynch due to his awfulness is worth it.

Agreed. I was going to vote for him when I saw nobody died: any of the scum teams should have gone for him. And our healers we're taken (maybe one saved him? maybe not). I think his team got unlucky targeting whoever. I also think most of his posts yesterday were saying little, but doing it loudly. Whenever asked to stake out an actual read, he deflected.

All that said: ##VOTE ND.

What did you mean when you said you were going to vote for him when you saw nobody died? I do not understand the association between no NKs and the probability he was scum.

[Chaqa]

I still buy into the Vapor knife-slip thing, and that's a reason I'd be willing to vote for Tom, though I think he's unlikely to be anything but town or Jack.

[bozotheclown]

Thank you bozo, but

ISN'T THAT TOO EASY FOR JACK THE RIPPER?
There are more female characters than I expected and only 3 is enough?

He only kills on even nights, so even if he went 3/3, he would not win until N6, and with less than 50% female, the chance of going 3/3 is low (less than 12.5%).

Oh you are correct, though he isn't going to shoot blindly and therefore it's higher than 12.5%

True, but less than 50% of his potential targets were female (at game start), so the random probability was less than 12.5%. Also, I do not know how the SK would have much success differentiating between male and female town or male and female scum.

[yavuzovic]

I know it's unfair to ask someone to explain things instead of finding and reading them on my own, but you know I do this a lot.

What is the thing with ND. Is there a link between him and the previous night?

[yavuzovic]

Actually you have right bozo, I agree.

[BunnyGo]

I know it's unfair to ask someone to explain things instead of finding and reading them on my own, but you know I do this a lot.

What is the thing with ND. Is there a link between him and the previous night?

What do you mean?

Oh. ND baited both NK during D1. Then also got RB and had self applied the doctor heal. So that’s why no NK night 1.

[BunnyGo]

I still buy into the Vapor knife-slip thing, and that's a reason I'd be willing to vote for Tom, though I think he's unlikely to be anything but town or Jack.

I still say it was ESL stuff. Easy to not get everything on a read.

To be complete: *IF* I believed the knife was a slip, I think most likely the grave robber.

[bozotheclown]

Yeah...should we end the ruse and let them know you aren’t Jekyll, that I am and all 3 NKs (and my heal) targeted you last night?

Lmfao

If this was true, this game would be the second great tombomb VT-as-PR deception :v

one can hope, one can hope

For those who don't recall or know, this was also Dargo's epic shining moment, M42.

Tom claimed cop, with two guilty scans. Dargo was desperado who shot both of them, who indeed turned out to be scum. Tom was then nk'd and flipped VT lmao. Darg hipfired, and hit another scum. Repeat. (he's singlehandedly eliminated majority of scum team). Real cop came forwards with guilty scan, lynched second-to-last scum, remaining one surrendered.

That was a beautiful, beautiful game.

I do not think that part about the real cop getting a guilty scan is accurate.

[Chaqa]

I still buy into the Vapor knife-slip thing, and that's a reason I'd be willing to vote for Tom, though I think he's unlikely to be anything but town or Jack.

I still say it was ESL stuff. Easy to not get everything on a read.

To be complete: *IF* I believed the knife was a slip, I think most likely the grave robber.

Maybe.

If I make it through the night, I'll spend some time delivering the info from my Jekyll gambit. I haven't had the time with the holidays and work to look into it much (I work at an e-Commerce-related software company, so this time of year is absolutely swamped. Today specifically is our busiest day so I don't have time for more than the few posts I've made).

[xorxes]

I still buy into the Vapor knife-slip thing, and that's a reason I'd be willing to vote for Tom, though I think he's unlikely to be anything but town or Jack.

If he is Jack, he was being disingenuous by asking whether he needed to kill by his own hand. He knew it very well.

If he is the Grave Robber, he knew the knife was an item in play but did not check Jack's role and truly wondered whether Jack needed to kill with his own knife.

If he is neither, it is strange that he knew about the knife but didn't know about Jack's wincon. It is not impossible that he read the roles and noticed the knife but missed the wincon part.

I don't think the middle option is all that unlikely given that he made a similar mistake in the first attempt of last game when he didn't realize that he would be outed if he tried to rickroll openly. I thought of the first option first before I realized that the knife was also prominently mentioned in the Grave Robber's PM.

[xorxes]

I thought you had a good point about Vapor's use of the word "knife", and it was one of the reasons I voted for Vapor instead of BobMcBob when I was trying to break the tie in the last minute of D1. The other primary reason was that I found it unlikely BobMcBob would draw attention to himself as scum with that "joke" gambler claim. Why did you choose to vote for BobMcBob over Vapor? As far as I can tell we both voted within seconds of each other thinking the vote was tied between Vapor and BobMcBob.

I thought Vapor was generally being himself and the only thing I had against him was the knife. I thought it could mean disingenuous Jack, it had not occured to me at the time that it could also mean distracted Grave Robber. I only realized that when I did the search for "knife" during the night.

My suspicion of Bob came from the way he reacted when questioned about his fakeclaim. He gave as reasons all the options that damo and I had been speculating as what his motivation could have been. The problem was that the options were incompatible with one another, and he said it was a bit of all of them. It all felt like rationalization, for something that he would not even have had to explain if he didn't feel guilty about it.

So my choice between Bob and Vapor was easy. But I admit I would have stayed with Computer if it wasn't for the tie.

[xorxes]

OK, went back and read up on Bob (our confirmed scum flip) to see what's what. Most of his posts were jokey, or trying to raise suspicions on Vapor (now Tom).

One post that jumped out what this one interacting with Chaq:

Dr. Chakyll’s Log: 23rd of November, 1888
<snip>

TL:DR I’m Dr. Jekyll

Huge town, sorry, Jekyll points for this. Sure, a scum could make this play as well, but with the talk of lynching Hyde going around, I wouldn't risk it. What we should do with this information I don't know, but I'm pretty certain Chaqa is legit here.

This could easily be scum covering for scum teammate.

Interesting.

If I die tonight, someone follow up on the possibility of Bob-Chaqa-Vecna as the Moriarty team.

[Tom Bombadil]

Why do you pick Vecna as the third there, xorx?

[xorxes]

I still honestly don't see it, Xorxes. Who should scum target? PRs if they know them. Otherwise, probably "good" players who say they know stuff but aren't sharing yet. Sounds about right to me. If you think that's not a priority target, then we play scum very differently.

Why should scum have had ND as their only identified PR though? And what did you mean by doctors being already busy with something else?

Not PR as the 2nd class. I figured they had no PRs, but ND had been saying he knew everything and as awesome. But he didn't explain, he just taunted.

As for the doctors: Chaq had publicly claimed he was saving himself. Which is a point against Chaq in my book as it's not advancing town.

So if I follow you reasoning correctly, you're saying that:

ND claimed he was awesome.

Therefore Bunny believed that ND must be awesome and Mafia would target him.

Then ND claimed he was targetted and saved himself, which made Bunny vote for him because he should have been dead because one of the doctors (Jekyll!Chaqa) had saved himself, and the other doctor had obviously saved someone other than ND, who was obviouly lying about being Jekyll.

Did I follow your reasoning correctly?

[xorxes]

Why do you pick Vecna as the third there, xorx?

Because that would explain why he didn't believe Chaqa was Jekyll when there was no reason to doubt it.