Mayo bye election

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MajorMitchell
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Mayo bye election

#1 Post by MajorMitchell » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:00 am

Can independent Federal MP Rebekha Sharkie hold on in Mayo ? Will well funded Liberal Party candidate Georgina Downer claim her dynastic political inheritance by winning the seat her father held & be the third generation of her clan to hold high political office ?

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Re: Mayo bye election

#2 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:11 am

I don't know.

What's the punchline?

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Re: Mayo bye election

#3 Post by MajorMitchell » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:04 pm

It's a classic David v Goliath fight. An independent MP on a shoestring budget v the Liberal Party machine, a well funded organisation with heaps of members and volunteers, the latest electioneering software to analyse & target voters, similar to that used by Cambridge Analytica, money to finance "robo~telephone" calls etc etc.
Mayo was a blue ribbon safe Liberal seat, considered their "jewel in the crown" in my state, but after Alexander Downer resigned in early 2008, the Liberals made a blunder and did not endorse David Basham, a local dairy farmer, President of a local Liberal Party branch, but instead chose an ultra right wing party apparatchik from outside the region, Jamie Briggs.
His arrogance, rudeness and then scandals about drunken behaviour, innapropriate behaviour towards female staff etc during 5 years in Opposition & 3 years in Government made him vulnerable. In the 2017 election despite the Liberals being returned to Government Jamie Briggs lost Mayo to a former Liberal Party member and former staffer for Briggs, Ms Rebekha Sharkie who stood as an independent with the support of Nick Xenophon, also an independent MP.
Rebekha Sharkie has held the seat for 2&half years but has decided to resign because of a recent High Court decision about the "reasonable steps" taken by another MP to denounce dual citizenship.
The dual citizenship fiasco was started by a Western Australian lawyer connected to the Liberal Party as a way to attack Greens Senator Scott Ludlum. He resigned along with another Greens MP. Since then, over a two year period about twenty MPs from all parties & independents have been caught up in this interesting ongoing drama.
Rebekha Sharkie and three ALP MPs are the latest to resign to recontest their seats to avoid individual cases in the High Court being initiated by their political opponents, after a recent "MPs dual citizenship" case in the High Court was decided with an unexpected result.

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Re: Mayo bye election

#4 Post by MajorMitchell » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:06 pm

Bloody typos.... reasonable steps taken by another MP to renounce ( not denounce ) dual citizenship

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Re: Mayo bye election

#5 Post by MajorMitchell » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:36 pm

Georgina Downer is the daughter of Alexander Downer, former Liberal Foreign Minister and member for Mayo Her grandfather "Lord" Downer was also an establishment politician.
Ms Downer is a corporate lawyer who was employed by the Institute of Public Affairs, a conservative "think tank/lobby group". Her notable public statements include advocating for the abolition of the minimum​ wage & stating that she thought the election of Donald Trump was a good thing because it signalled the "end of the environmentalist's Fatwah against carbon". Something makes me think that Ms Downer might not be the type of candidate that attracts Jamiet99uk's​ approval.

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Re: Mayo bye election

#6 Post by TrPrado » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:43 pm

Sharkie is basically the incumbent, so I don’t think I’d consider it a David v Goliath fight at all.

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Re: Mayo bye election

#7 Post by MajorMitchell » Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm

In terms of campaigning resources I think it certainly is. Ms Downer has the State branch of the Liberal Party trying desperately to win back a formerly "blue ribbon safe Liberal seat" backing her. She also has the Federal Government's resources, so for example, funding promises​.
For example Sharkie will only have one campaign leaflet, and printing of those is done in small print runs dependent on donations. The Liberals have the resources to print twenty different leaflets in large quantity print runs.
Sharkie does have some strengths, she's had two and a half years of hard work supporting a wide range of community organisations
Oops got to go ..Her Imperiousness commands my services.

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Re: Mayo bye election

#8 Post by TrPrado » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:16 pm

I understand the role resources play, but I would very much posit they aren't near close to everything. For a start, putting together money from several donations is generally a better sign than being almost entirely financially backed by yourself or your party.

It's also important to note the incumbent doesn't really need to have the most resources to stand the best chance of victory. Unless Sharkie has been terribly unpopular among constituents, it shouldn't be as much of a mountain climb as you seem to assume.

All this to say, there's a decently high chance of you seeing the result you're wanting in this election, but I don't know much about the district myself.

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Re: Mayo bye election

#9 Post by MajorMitchell » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:01 am

Those are very good points TrPrado. I think Rebekha Sharkie can win. But there were a significant number of Liberal voters who disliked Jamie Briggs so much they voted for Rebekha in 2016. They'll all switch back to the Liberal candidate, Ms Downer this time.
However Rebekha Sharkie has some of the advantages of incumbency. Two recent polls gave her about a sixteen % point advantage over Ms Downer. Which is a big notional lead. Yet we know how innacurate polling can be.
One thing that will also help Rebekha Sharkie is preference votes. At this point, as well as Sharkie and Downer, the Greens have a candidate, Major "Moogy" Summer, an Aboriginal Elder, and the ALP have a candidate.

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Re: Mayo bye election

#10 Post by MajorMitchell » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:29 am

Continuing​.. the Greens and ALP candidates will preference Sharkie ahead of Downer. The 2nd preference votes of their voters went generally to Sharkie in 2016 & should do so again.
This is a bye election. There has to be a general Federal election next year. So Rebekha Sharkie will have to fight two elections in approx eight months.
Whilst the Liberals publicly say they want to win this time, I know that privately they plan on a two stage campaign. Get within striking distance this time, force Rebekha to use up her resources, then deliver the knock out next year. The biggest non dollar resource the Liberals have is people, people to.man polling booths & hand out how to vote cards.
So Rebekha Sharkie has to win by a big margin, not just squeak in this time. If she can do that, win overwhelmingly this time, then that compromises the two stage campaign of the Liberals, they could be forced to choose a different candidate for next year.
You touched on a good point TrPrado.. pushback by voters who don't like being inundated with pamphlets, robo~phone calls etc.

I've also heard numerous voters say that they voted for Rebekha last time and they'll do so again because they feel that "their previous vote has been disrespected" by the decision of the High Court and those pushing this dual citizenship agenda to "overturn their decision at the last election" & they are determined to "enforce their will" It's a sort of " We made a collective decision to elect Rebekha Sharkie, don't think we're doormats, and we'll show you not to mess with us" attitude.

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Re: Mayo bye election

#11 Post by MajorMitchell » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:10 pm

Well I have been blocked out of all Liberal Party Facebook pages, but I am not alone in having that honour. It's clearly politically motivated censorship of any criticisms. The Speaker of The House of Representatives has issued the writs for the four bye elections, so we're now in the official campaign period and we can now go out and put up the corflute posters. It's unlawful to put up campaign posters before the writs are issued.
I caused some slight controversy at a public meeting by dissing Ms Georgina Downer in a traditional aboriginal cultural practice.. Shunning. In a Mahatma Gandhi inspired move, passive non violent protest I simply turned my back (whilst seated) to Ms Downer for two minutes while she was speaking.
The Liberal Party members at the meeting were furious, having conniptions at my naughtiness, and one of them, a lady launched a verbal harangue at my impudent self.
I came within a heartbeat of responding with a verbal counter attack, was mentally choosing some withering Shakespearean lines from The Taming of the Shrew, when I luckily decided to keep my mouth shut, and to quietly turned back to face Ms Downer. Which de~escalated the situation and earnt me a most complimentary expression of gratitude from the moderator of the meeting.
Apparently in the opinion of Liberal Party members, it's ok for Ms Downer to, imho, use language that many people would regard as offensive towards Australian Muslims and divisive, but anyone who engages in silent, passive, non violent political protest that disses Ms Downer is clearly acting in a wickedly unnaceptable manner.
However, several Aboriginal people came up to me afterwards to say hello and shake my hand. They didn't talk about what I had done, just gave me their unspoken approval with smiles and things like gently touching my arm. They understood what I had done. Aboriginals famously did the Shunning thing to John Howard when he was Prime Minister.

I've also lobbied my local Council to improve the Disabled Parking for disabled voters who choose to vote early.

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Re: Mayo bye election

#12 Post by MajorMitchell » Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:35 am

Hoorah, I braved the wind and rain today and put up corflute posters for Rebekha Sharkie. Got out and got the strategically best placed poles before our opponents. Will do a few more tomorrow.
Her Lovely Imperiousness, The Beautiful Fire Breathing MemSahib laid on a cracking Roast Leg of Lamb with all my favourite vegetables and then a scrumptious hot Apricot Pie for dinner & has even encouraged me to have a few post prandial whiskies. Politics has it's occasional rewards.

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Re: Mayo bye election

#13 Post by MajorMitchell » Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:46 pm

Three and a half weeks to go until"polling day" in the Mayo bye election. There's two weeks leading up to polling day in which early votes can be made at pre~poll election booth. We've had more visits from Federal Prime Minister dishing out funding​ monies for the airport upgrade on Kangaroo Island and other worthy groups, services & projects.
He's spruiking the Liberal Party candidate Georgina Downer. There's been reported campaign poster sabotage etc.
Her beautiful Imperiousness offered to ride shotgun on my night patrols checking the corflute posters for Rebekha Sharkie.
The Lovable Fire Breathing MemSahib is cleaning, oiling & polishing up her Purdeys & loading rock crystals of salt laden with light to medium gunpowder mix & pressing her dozen cartridges with eager anticipation.

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Re: Mayo bye election

#14 Post by Incrementalist » Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:03 pm

How would you know if the other guy's "Purdey" is loaded with rock salt or something more lethal?

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Re: Mayo bye election

#15 Post by MajorMitchell » Sun Jul 29, 2018 12:21 pm

As well as being a crack shot, Her Most Beautiful Imperiousness, The Lovely Fire Breathing MemSahib is a dab hand with a castrating knife. I dare not look in her handbag or knitting kit, but it would be most foolish to assume that there are not a few solid shot cartridges in either.
The good news is that the election has been held and Rebekha Sharkie has won handsomely, improving her margin by 3.5%. And that there has been no need for a volley of gunfire in anger from Her Most Beautiful Imperiousness, although she did fire a few celebratory rounds at the nearly full moon last night.
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Re: Mayo bye election

#16 Post by Telamor » Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:13 pm

Well, congratulations MajorMitchell sounds like a well earned victory.

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Re: Mayo bye election

#17 Post by MajorMitchell » Mon Jul 30, 2018 3:32 pm

I like to see the winners being those fortunate recipients of "needs based funding decisions" that co~incidentally were announced during the election campaign by visiting Government Ministers. There was an approximate​ $Aus 16-20 million upgrade to the airport on Kangaroo Island (funded mostly by State Government & Local regional Council ) & the regional Council got hit with a cost over~run & then fortuitously got bailed out by Prime Minister Turnbull on one of his three visits to the electorate..Other winners.. Sporting Clubs, Schools, a local Historical Railway SteamRanger that has 80 odd kilometres of line from Mt Barker via Strathalbyn & Goolwa & Port Elliott to Victor Harbor that got $Aus 200k ( they use coal in the Steam Locomotives, so that's a sop to the Coal is Good faction in the Conservative Federal Government ?)

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Re: Mayo bye election

#18 Post by MajorMitchell » Mon Jul 30, 2018 3:46 pm

The bye election was like an extra round of presents between the last general Federal election in 2016 & the one that's due between mid August and May 2018. The Federal Government is now most unlikely to go early given the results of the five bye elections held on Saturday ..ALP Opposition hold on to four, Independent in Mayo holds seat, Government gains none. (which is common in bye elections, the last time a Federal Government won a seat from the opposition in a bye election was in 1922)
So instead of having to wait from 2016 until next May (?) for our funding from Federal Government presents, the bye election was like an extra Christmas. PM Turnbull as Santa & the Ministers like Santa's reindeer

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