webdiplomacy.net

What if China invaded Taiwan and Russia invaded the Ukraine simultaneously? How would the US and Europe react to a challenging situation that, even if they were under firm and decisive leadership, they would struggle to find the resources to effectively counter?

The question has been inspired by the unprecedented level of Chinese military manoeuvres off Taiwan and the recent massive buildup of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border.

War games are already suggesting that the US won't be able to defend Taiwan:

https://nypost.com/2021/03/11/us-war-ga ... at-report/

It is hard. It is a long way for the US to continually project power, especially against a rapidly growing China.

If Russia invaded Ukraine, is there any guarantee that there would be any big response from Europe/US? The US has promised to defend Taiwan at least at some level:

https://nypost.com/2021/03/11/us-war-ga ... at-report/

Is there any equivalent at all for Ukraine?

Beyond members of the security council and the supposed guardians of liberal democracy defending a European neighbour from illegal authoritarian invasion, probably nothing. In all honesty I think Ukraine would probably pin its hopes on the Yanks moreso than the Europeans, although its Crimean experience may well have taught it not to depend on any help from the West. As far as European foreign policy goes, SNAFU.

Should they? I mean, wtf is the US doing intervening in an I tetnal Chinese matter (both RoCand PRC claim that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it). What are the US currently doing regarding 'democracy' activists on Hong Kong?

Meanwhile, Ukraine fascists learned that European soft power wouldn't be enough to prevent Russian nationalists claiming half their country. The EU would be well advised to negotiate a peaceful solution with Russia. I'm pretty sure the UK is already looking for a new ally to make them feel relevant again...

As fascinating as a conversation regarding why you think the UK was any more relevant within the EU than out of it would be, it's probably best to save it for another day. One of the more idiotic narratives put forward by elements of the Remain side was that Brexiters were somehow fawning for a return to Imperial superpower status, which only served to underline the ignorance of many Remainers to the issues that mattered to the other side. I would be extremely disappointed to learn that you'd fallen for this obvious lie.

Going back to the subject at hand, it is possible that the US does indeed opt for the cowardly and morally bankrupt approach to Taiwan that you propose. If China and Russia do invade it will be under the assumption that this will indeed be the case. The consequences for freedom and democracy across the globe will be tragic if so.

orathaic wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:26 am

Should they? I mean, wtf is the US doing intervening in an I tetnal Chinese matter (both RoCand PRC claim that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it). What are the US currently doing regarding 'democracy' activists on Hong Kong?

The "one China" policy isn't universal in Taiwan. The KMT still believe it but the DPP don't (the current ruling party) and would prefer to move officially to independence but they don't due to fear of what China may do.

I am not sure what you are arguing here. Are you saying that because the West hasn't been forthright enough in supporting Hong Kong activists, this gives China has a pass to invade Taiwan...or am I misunderstanding?

There is all sort of other strategic significance to Taiwan too. Taiwan are world leaders in semiconductor manufacturing (e.g. TMSC). Having that fall into CCP hands would be an absolutely massive blow to technology in the West. The US congress is just starting to wake up to the danger here.

Meanwhile, Ukraine fascists learned that European soft power wouldn't be enough to prevent Russian nationalists claiming half their country. The EU would be well advised to negotiate a peaceful solution with Russia. I'm pretty sure the UK is already looking for a new ally to make them feel relevant again...

I don't understand - why are the Ukrainians fascists? I really hope that at some point Ukraine could become part of the EU. You would not want to see that?

Octavious wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:26 am

Going back to the subject at hand, it is possible that the US does indeed opt for the cowardly and morally bankrupt approach to Taiwan that you propose. If China and Russia do invade it will be under the assumption that this will indeed be the case. The consequences for freedom and democracy across the globe will be tragic if so.

On what basis do you assert that the United States, specifically, is under any obligation, moral or otherwise, to intervene in this situation?

In my opinion the USA's military adventures across the world usually lead to an increase in death, suffering, and injustice, in the regions involved.

I don't think Taiwan has significant oil reserves so presumably Uncle Sam will stay at home.

flash2015 wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm

orathaic wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:26 am

Meanwhile, Ukraine fascists learned that European soft power wouldn't be enough to prevent Russian nationalists claiming half their country. The EU would be well advised to negotiate a peaceful solution with Russia. I'm pretty sure the UK is already looking for a new ally to make them feel relevant again...

I don't understand - why are the Ukrainians fascists? I really hope that at some point Ukraine could become part of the EU. You would not want to see that?

There was a fascist coup in Ukraine in 2014. I'm surprised you haven't heard about it.

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:09 pm

Octavious wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:26 am

Going back to the subject at hand, it is possible that the US does indeed opt for the cowardly and morally bankrupt approach to Taiwan that you propose. If China and Russia do invade it will be under the assumption that this will indeed be the case. The consequences for freedom and democracy across the globe will be tragic if so.

On what basis do you assert that the United States, specifically, is under any obligation, moral or otherwise, to intervene in this situation?

In my opinion the USA's military adventures across the world usually lead to an increase in death, suffering, and injustice, in the regions involved.

I don't think Taiwan has significant oil reserves so presumably Uncle Sam will stay at home.

A permanent seat on the Security Council and being the only true superpower on the planet able to enforce the rule of law across the globe gives it a clear moral obligation. The desire and expectation to be seen as leader of the free world gives it the required domestic narrative. The necessity of countering growing Chinese dominance in Asia and Africa gives it plenty of self interest. Nailing your flag to pax America has to be seen to giving some clear benefit, otherwise there will be precious little motivation for currently friendly countries to keep doing it.

flash2013 wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:14 pm

I don't understand - why are the Ukrainians fascists? I really hope that at some point Ukraine could become part of the EU. You would not want to see that?

In late 2013 the leadership of Ukraine was under the democratically legitimate (as far as anything is in that part of the world) control of a pro-Russian and somewhat authoritarian President who tore up plans for the Ukraine and EU to move ever closer together, favoring instead closer relations with Putin. This outraged the people of Kiev who were overwhelmingly pro-European. There were mass protests against this action, and these protests were rather brutally put down with quite a lot of people being killed.

This, as is often the case, turned the protests into a revolution that staged a coup. Some elements of the revolutionaries were indeed far right groups, which allowed the Russian propaganda machine to spin (rather effectively, if webDip is to be believed) the entire revolution into a fascist coup. Since then Russia has stolen rather a lot of the pro-Russian parts of the Ukraine and subsequent elections have returned a pro EU government to democratic power.

It's all a bit of a mess

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:14 pm

flash2015 wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm

orathaic wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:26 am

Meanwhile, Ukraine fascists learned that European soft power wouldn't be enough to prevent Russian nationalists claiming half their country. The EU would be well advised to negotiate a peaceful solution with Russia. I'm pretty sure the UK is already looking for a new ally to make them feel relevant again...

I don't understand - why are the Ukrainians fascists? I really hope that at some point Ukraine could become part of the EU. You would not want to see that?

There was a fascist coup in Ukraine in 2014. I'm surprised you haven't heard about it.

I vaguely remember the far right claims now. I just didn't think anyone took them seriously.

It was sort of orthogonal to the issue at hand though, wasn't it (Ukraine increasing ties with the EU)?

Or are you suggesting that being pro-EU is fascist?

Not at all, being fascist supported by the EU because they are anti-Russia and pro-Ukraine doesn't make you any less fascists...

You just happen to fit a nice narrative for anti-Russia EU countries.

Weren't there diplomatic leaks where the US discussed how much the EU had balled things up, and we're in no position to actually sort out the shit they had started?

What do you think is right for Ukraine then? You would prefer it to continue its vassal state status with Russia (like Belarus)...and the EU/US are wrong for providing any support which may question this status?

Octavious wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:02 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:09 pm

On what basis do you assert that the United States, specifically, is under any obligation, moral or otherwise, to intervene in this situation?

In my opinion the USA's military adventures across the world usually lead to an increase in death, suffering, and injustice, in the regions involved.

I don't think Taiwan has significant oil reserves so presumably Uncle Sam will stay at home.

A permanent seat on the Security Council and being the only true superpower on the planet able to enforce the rule of law across the globe gives it a clear moral obligation. The desire and expectation to be seen as leader of the free world gives it the required domestic narrative. The necessity of countering growing Chinese dominance in Asia and Africa gives it plenty of self interest. Nailing your flag to pax America has to be seen to giving some clear benefit, otherwise there will be precious little motivation for currently friendly countries to keep doing it.

If you were the President of the United States, what would your response be to this situation, then? How would you propose to act?

Moi?

First I'd start wargaming some scenarios and consult with my advisors to try and build up a feel for what is and isn't possible.

Octavious wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:55 pm

Moi?

First I'd start wargaming some scenarios and consult with my advisors to try and build up a feel for what is and isn't possible.

That's a very non-committal answer, given you seem to feel very strongly that some kind of serious action is required.

You favour choosing the action first, and save finding out whether it's possible until later?

You posed the question "How would the US and Europe react?".

I'm attempting to discuss with you how you think they *should* react and your answer appears to be "they should consult with their advisors".

Well that's great. Thread finished. Congratulations.

Octavious wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:12 pm

What if China invaded Taiwan and Russia invaded the Ukraine simultaneously? How would the US and Europe react to a challenging situation that, even if they were under firm and decisive leadership, they would struggle to find the resources to effectively counter?

I place my bet on "They will do the exact thing that Britain and France did when Nazi Germany started to invade it's surroundings."

It looks logical to avoid conflict first because letting the "supposed villains" take some land causes less damage and death than immediately responding. However these countries tend to be very greedy and we end up having even more death and suffering at the end. And since some Ukrainian sides support Russian invasion, I can see a Russisch Anschluss justified in Russian nationalists' eyes.

We were supposed to eliminate statism and establish a liberal society away from the concerns of countries' greeds. Yet we kept worshipping the mother country and father government. Now we shoot and eat bullet for the family.

@ yavuzovic

Which we was supposed to end statism?