No Deal Brexit

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Octavious
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Re: No Deal Brexit

#21 Post by Octavious » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:02 pm

But you are largely right that the issue of state aid is the final significant sticking point, and once the UK gives ground on that in exchange for slightly more favourable terms in other areas the deal will be done.

The UK will ultimately give ground on it, of course, because rules on state aid don't really mean anything. Basically what happens under such rules is that you have a company that is struggling, so you give it state money to help it out. Then the EU gets angry and mounts a legal challenge. After several months / years the EU wins, you apologise, and the money is returned. In the meantime the company was either viable, has been saved by the loan of the cash, and can return it happily, or it wasn't viable and is allowed to fail.

It's a trick our good friends the French use time and time again to great effect, and we have all become more European and will act accordingly :-)

orathaic
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Re: No Deal Brexit

#22 Post by orathaic » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:51 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:49 pm
:lol:

So in what sense, Peter, do you believe that the situation is different to what it was a few weeks ago before ora started this thread?
The British public are perhaps more ready to blame the EU for no deal when it comes.

While Johnson deploys some plausible deniability.

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Re: No Deal Brexit

#23 Post by Octavious » Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:46 pm

orathaic wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:51 pm
Octavious wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:49 pm
:lol:

So in what sense, Peter, do you believe that the situation is different to what it was a few weeks ago before ora started this thread?
The British public are perhaps more ready to blame the EU for no deal when it comes.

While Johnson deploys some plausible deniability.
What do you base that on? The pro-Brexit lot and the pro-Remain remnants are largely unchanged. The vast majority of the regular people haven't been paying any attention for months. If you have information that suggests otherwise, feel free to share.

Ultimately the EU were always going to push for a far harder line than they'd accept, as if negotiations carried on to the last minute under current rules they don't lose anything, and if the UK agreed to their hard-line stance they win significantly. No real difference from the British position, for that matter.

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Re: No Deal Brexit

#24 Post by orathaic » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:20 pm

Oct, are you saying the papers didn't pickup on Johnson's s declaration and put it on the front page? I mean, I'm assuming g here that some people heard but I have been wrong before.

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Re: No Deal Brexit

#25 Post by Octavious » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:38 pm

I'm saying that whether they did or not doesn't matter. Very few people read the papers, and of those who do most skip the politics. Find me evidence that what Boris has said made any significant difference to public opinion. It is not the topic of conversation on people's lips. People are talking about the lockdown in Wales, the second wave, how Christmas will be impacted, and the football. Brexit isn't getting a look in except in the circles of those poor few enthusiastic Party members who talk about nothing else.

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Re: No Deal Brexit

#26 Post by orathaic » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:00 am

https://twitter.com/aylwyn_scally/statu ... 78018?s=19

Northern Ireland Protocol to exclude NI goods from EU free trade agreements (of which there are many) and include them in UK ftas (of which there is 1 signed).

I suspect this will devestate the NI economy. And UK will continue to subsidise them greatly. In an earlier time I would have called it intentional economic sabotage, but I think this is simple negligence.

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