Election Countdown Tracker

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Octavious
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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#21 Post by Octavious » Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:14 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:52 pm
Next Tuesday (29th) is the first debate. President Chaos I believe foolishly has set expectations so low for Sleepy Joe that if Sleepy Joe gets off the stage without drooling or falling asleep he wins. Whatever happens I don't expect the debates to change many minds. People continue to appear to be set on their choices.
I don't think I agree with this line of reasoning. Trump has only lowered expectations amongst Trump supporters, who are unlikely to care if Biden has a good day or not. Biden's performance will be judged by swing voters, who typically don't like Trump and will be judging Biden not by Trump's standards, but by whether he comes across as presidential. If Biden fluffs too many of his lines, if he looks confused, or if he struggles with his stammer, he will suffer. Much as Trump will if he looks indecisive or weak.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#22 Post by flash2015 » Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:47 pm

The difference this time is there aren't that many swing voters. Unlike in 2016 and as you can see from the polls people have largely made up their minds already. Voters for Biden know full well of his limitation (Republicans have been wildly exaggerating them for months now) and still haven't changed their vote.

Note that Biden has already been in several debates this year...and, whilst he didn't do spectacularly, he did OK and held his own. Very different from the "barely can complete a sentence" picture that Republicans have been trying to push. And of course it ignores the incoherent ramblings that Trump is prone to do often.

If there is any change out of the debates it will probably take a week to filter through...which probably means it will take until Oct 6-7 to see its impact (if any)

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#23 Post by flash2015 » Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:00 pm

FiveThirtyEight today puts Ohio very, very slightly in the Sleepy Joe column, first time since early July (52 out of 100 vs 48 out of 100).

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#24 Post by flash2015 » Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:12 pm

Day 1351 Of The President Chaos Administration
Time To Election: 31 days, 14 hours

Current FiveThirtyEight Data

President Chaos approval rating: 43.7% Approve 52.9% Disapprove (--9.2%)
National Polls: Sleepy Joe 51% President Chaos 42.7% (Sleepy Joe +8.2%)
Based on current polling FiveThirtyEight currently believes Sleepy Joe is favoured to win (Sleepy Joe 80 out of 100, President Chaos is 20 out of 100)

2020 vs 2016 From RealClearPolitics

Sleepy Joe vs Crooked Hillary

National Polls: Sleepy Joe +4.0% (their average is Sleepy Joe +7.2% vs FiveThirtyEights weighted average of +8.2%)
Favourability rating: Sleepy Joe +4.0% (total favourability +15.1%)
Battleground States: Crooked Hillary +0.3% (Sleepy Joe up +3.5% against President Chaos)

For a long time, President Chaos supporters had been waiting for the first debate to see President Chaos "destroy" Sleepy Joe. As well expectations had been built up that Sleepy Joe would be shown to have dementia. Neither of these things happened. Instead of helping President Chaos the first debate has likely hurt him badly. It has started to be reflected in the polls (Sleepy Joe has moved up about a percentage point in the last couple of days, betting markets have shifted strongly to Sleepy Joe too) but we won't know the full effect until early next week.

Interestingly the difference between Sleepy Joe and Crooked Hillary has narrowed. Crooked Hillary though had a surge in October 2016 before fading off badly at the end with the reopening of the email investigation.

Can President Chaos come back from here? He is really starting to run out of time. Early voting starts in even more states in the next few days (Arizona, California, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio - Arizona, Iowa, and parts of Nebraska and Maine voted for President Chaos but could swing to Sleepy Joe). His COVID diagnosis is also going to crimp his electioneering.

What could potentially change the trajectory of the race? The Hunter Biden investigation fell flat but could the results of the Durham investigation be rushed out and implicate Biden in some way? Some other October surprise?

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#25 Post by Octavious » Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:35 pm

How Trump's Covid-19 case progresses could have quite a big impact. A mild case that he can shrug off after a fortnight will do wonders for the "it's just flu" brigade and will make his choice to carry on as normal as much as possible look like the right one. It's hard to tell what a more serious case will do. In some nations you have seen a wave of sympathy and support as a reaction to similar scenarios, but Trump's philosophy on life may limit this benefit whilst also maximising the negative aspect of appearing weak.

Trump's biggest benefit will inevitably come from Democrats engaging in their favourite pass time of shooting themselves in the foot. Already countless vocal Democrat supporters are making utter twats of themselves by celebrating Trump catching the virus. It's hard to imagine much that's more damaging to the brand in the eyes of moderates than card carrying enthusiasts crowing about an old man getting sick.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#26 Post by flash2015 » Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:48 am

"Countless" vocal democratic supporters making twats of themselves? Who? I only know of one person (Zara Rahim who allegedly worked in the Obama White House) who said something bad.

Just like the person that has been driving drunk for months and finally crashes, it is inevitable that people will point out that Trump's reckless behaviour may have contributed to him getting sick. Even though some democrats highlight this democrats as a whole have been pretty universal in wishing him a swift recovery.

Of course, there are no-name trolls saying bad things on twitter but this isn't anything new.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#27 Post by flash2015 » Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:05 pm

Day 1358 Of The President SuperSpreader Administration
Time To Election: 24 days, 16 hours

Current FiveThirtyEight Data

President SuperSpreader approval rating: 43.2% Approve 53.4% Disapprove (-10.2%)
National Polls: Sleepy Joe 51.9% President SuperSpreader 42.1% (Sleepy Joe +9.8%)
Based on current polling FiveThirtyEight currently believes Sleepy Joe is favoured to win (Sleepy Joe 85 out of 100, President SuperSpreader is 15 out of 100)

2020 vs 2016 From RealClearPolitics

Sleepy Joe vs Crooked Hillary

National Polls: Sleepy Joe +4.4% (their average is Sleepy Joe +9.7% vs FiveThirtyEights weighted average of +9.8%)
Favourability rating: Sleepy Joe +4.2% (total favourability +18.2%)
Battleground States: Crooked Hillary +0.5% (Sleepy Joe up +4.6% against President SuperSpreader)

It couldn't have been a worse week for President SuperSpreader. First we have his COVID diagnosis which was pretty clearly caused by his lack of precautions. He made the situation worse with his crazy behaviour at the hospital like taking a drive while he was highly infectious.

But President SuperSpreader also kept on scoring other "own goals" too...like saying there was no chance of a deal on stimulus until after the election. This is especially a big deal now because the paycheck protection programme was only funded through the end of September. Businesses (like airlines) have no choice but to start laying off people that they were previously able to hold on to. He backtracked quickly on it (sort of) but the damage is done. There is still no chance of passing the stimulus before the election anyway because Republicans are pigheadedly wanting to inflict as much pain as possible on "democratic" states. Democrats will not do any stimulus without help for the states hardest hit by COVID.

President SuperSpreader also backed out of the second debate because the bipartisan debate commission switched it to the virtual format due to his diagnosis. President SuperSpreader needs the debates more than Sleepy Joe so again he shot himself in the foot. Sleepy Joe doesn't need to do him any favours here by shifting the debates. Looks like there will now be one more debate instead of two.

The vice presidential debate this week looks like it was at best a draw. At least it was civil thankfully and each side stuck to their well-rehearsed talking points. President SuperSpreader should be taking notes. Elf on a shelf came across far better in making the case for his re-election than he did.

Sleepy Joe has a purely massive lead now. It is almost in landslide territory. The projected vote margin is now the largest since Reagan. Given that we are only 24 days away from the election, it must be very hard for the Biden campaign to not begin to start counting those chickens and start choosing the drapes for the Oval Office. There are still some fuzzier elements that may not be fully accounted for though. Republicans are beating the democrats easily in new voter registrations...though democrats appear to have a wide lead so far in early voting.

Time is running out for President SuperSpreader. It is getting harder and harder to see what could change the race trajectory. The debates which would have the most impact are done. Early voting has now started in most of the important states. Perhaps last minute indictments from the Durham investigation? Unless there is some startling revelation, any late indictment would likely be seen as a partisan ploy. Still 24 days to go though. You never know...

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#28 Post by flash2015 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:13 pm

Day 1358 Of The President SuperSpreader Administration
Time To Election: 17 days, 15 hours

Current FiveThirtyEight Data

President SuperSpreader approval rating: 42.9% Approve 54.1% Disapprove (-11.2%)
National Polls: Sleepy Joe 52.3% President SuperSpreader 41.8% (Sleepy Joe +9.8%)
Based on current polling FiveThirtyEight currently believes Sleepy Joe is favoured to win (Sleepy Joe 87 out of 100, President SuperSpreader is 13 out of 100)

2020 vs 2016 From RealClearPolitics

Sleepy Joe vs Crooked Hillary

National Polls: Sleepy Joe +3.1% (their average is Sleepy Joe +8.9% vs FiveThirtyEights weighted average of +10.5%)
Favourability rating: Sleepy Joe +2.5% (total favourability +18.3%)
Battleground States: Crooked Hillary +0.9% (Sleepy Joe up +4.5% against President SuperSpreader)

It had to happen, the "October Surprise". Emails, photos and videos from an hard disk from a laptop allegedly owned by Hunter Biden has been turned over to the NY Murdoch rag, the New York Post.

The story is all very weird. Allegedly the laptops were dropped off at the Delaware repair shop in April 2019. The repair shop owner claims that he doesn't know who dropped them off (I don't know how the repair shop expected to get paid without having contact details for the person). The laptop allegedly had a "Beau Biden Foundation" sticker on them which no-one has been able to find an example picture of yet. The repair shop owner claimed he tried to contact someone (who?) to pick up the laptops but didn't get a response.

The laptop was allegedly given to the FBI in December 2019 AND the shop owner also mirrored the hard drive and sent it to a Giuliani representative in June (?). If there was important real evidence on this drive and the FBI had it since last December (and Giuliani had it since June), why was it not produced for the politically motivated inquiry in the Senate which just finished? It feels like a setup.

In 2016 we were in somewhat a similar situation to now. A couple of weeks out from the 2016 election, Trump was receiving huge amounts of flak over the Access Hollywood tapes. Hillary was seen as a sure thing and was way ahead in the polls (she was at her polling zenith right around now). But then the email investigation was restarted and everything shifted. Her polling fell off a cliff. Will the same thing happen here? I think it is unlikely because I believe people on both sides have become desensitized to these alleged corruption stories now. And the whole premise behind this specific story, even if the emails are real, still relies on the lie that Biden got rid of the prosecutor to help Burisma when time and time again both officials in the US and internationally have reiterated that this is complete and utter nonsense.

We will see if it makes any difference in the polling by early to mid-next week.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#29 Post by peterlund » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:06 pm

I keep my fingers crossed that you will return to civilisation soon. :)
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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#30 Post by Randomizer » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:54 pm

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics ... index.html

Trump already considering leaving the US if he loses the protection of presidential immunity. Facing the strong possibility of multiple charges and that his pardoning himself might not work, fleeing to a country that won't extradite is a strong possibility.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#31 Post by Matticus13 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:08 pm

Randomizer wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:54 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics ... index.html

Trump already considering leaving the US if he loses the protection of presidential immunity. Facing the strong possibility of multiple charges and that his pardoning himself might not work, fleeing to a country that won't extradite is a strong possibility.
He's not going anywhere... He'll pardon himself (or by Pence) for any potential federal crimes, and the potential state crimes will stay wrapped up in court until he dies of old age.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#32 Post by orathaic » Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:44 pm

Randomizer wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:54 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics ... index.html

Trump already considering leaving the US if he loses the protection of presidential immunity. Facing the strong possibility of multiple charges and that his pardoning himself might not work, fleeing to a country that won't extradite is a strong possibility.
Like Russia? Edward Snowden hasn't been extradited, so he should be safe!

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#33 Post by Randomizer » Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:58 pm

There are other countries like Angola and Israel that only extradite for murder so Trump wouldn't have to risk his usefulness was over and getting sent back to gain favor with a new US government.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#34 Post by Matticus13 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:17 am

Fivethirtyeight puts the chances of a Democratic sweep at 73% with two weeks to go; roughly the same chance of the Democrats winning a majority in the Senate.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#35 Post by flash2015 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:18 pm

Day 1372 Of The President SuperSpreader Administration
Time To Election: 10 days, 11 hours

Current FiveThirtyEight Data

President SuperSpreader approval rating: 42.5% Approve 53.7% Disapprove (-11.4%)
National Polls: Sleepy Joe 52.1% President SuperSpreader 42.3% (Sleepy Joe +9.8%)
Based on current polling FiveThirtyEight currently believes Sleepy Joe is favoured to win (Sleepy Joe 87 out of 100, President SuperSpreader is 12 out of 100 and 1 out of 100 chance of a tie)

2020 vs 2016 From RealClearPolitics

Sleepy Joe vs Crooked Hillary

National Polls: Sleepy Joe +4.0% (their average is Sleepy Joe +7.9% vs FiveThirtyEights weighted average of +9.8%)
Favourability rating: Sleepy Joe +3.9% (total favourability +17.7%)
Battleground States: Sleepy Joe +0.2% (Sleepy Joe up +4.0% against President SuperSpreader)

Right wing media this week pushed the Hunter Biden laptop thing hard. Wall-to-wall coverage especially in the Murdoch press. Guiliani is trying to keep the story going by selectively releasing stuff bit by bit. There has been a small bit of softening in Sleepy Joe's support this week. Perhaps it is having an effect?

President Super Spreader isn't helping himself though by contantly hogging the news cycle either on purpose (with the 60 minutes freak-out) or the Fauci thing where he called Fauci an idiot.

The final debate was last night. President SuperSpreader did A LOT better than in the first debate...but that wasn't a high bar to cross. He tried to bring up Hunter Biden story...but Sleepy Joe was prepared and was able to swat that away. Perhaps the best moment of the night for President SuperSpreader was the discussion on fracking. I don't think Sleepy Joe's answer will play too well. Expect Republicans to push the fracking issue hard in states like Pennsylvania and Texas in the last few days to try and close the gap.

Can President SuperSpreader still win? FiveThirtyEight have (slightly) pushed Georgia and Ohio back into his column. A lot of important states are still relatively close in the polls. The democrats though are running up huge advantages in early voting. More than 51 million people have already voted, several times the number that had voted by the same time in 2016 though the voting advantage isn't very evenly spread. Whilst the democratic advantage has been massive in Pennsylvania so far, in other important states (I believe Michigan and Minnesota) it is almost neck and neck based on party registration. This could all still turn out very close.

Only 10 days, 11 hours to go in an election campaign that has lasted for over a year and a half. The end of this can't come soon enough.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#36 Post by Octavious » Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:30 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:18 pm
The democrats though are running up huge advantages in early voting
What’s the evidence of this? Does the US allow exit polling of people who have voted early prior to the election proper even starting?

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#37 Post by flash2015 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:24 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:30 pm
flash2015 wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:18 pm
The democrats though are running up huge advantages in early voting
What’s the evidence of this? Does the US allow exit polling of people who have voted early prior to the election proper even starting?
It looks like many states release voting statistics by party registration. One place they have been compiled is here:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vo ... index.html

And you have companies that bring in additional information atop this (I don't know what this info is - perhaps demographics, exiting polling etc.) to determine early voting patterns. e.g.:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

My understanding is that the real exit polls, which actually represent who people voted for (both on the day and early) rather than party affiliation still will not be released until voting ends.

There have been concerns by Trump and his supporters that polling is being purposely biased to make it look like the democrats are doing better than they are really doing. This is a really weird claim though. Polling companies make their reputations through accuracy. While they may get it wrong for multiple reasons (e.g. the move from landlines to mobiles made it harder to accurately create polls, perhaps they are missing certain demographics or over/under estimating who will actually vote), it is nuts to think they may intentionally be trying to get it wrong.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#38 Post by Randomizer » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:34 pm

Exit polling being released before the close of voting was banned following the 1984 Reagan Mondale election where Reagan was declared a winner before the West Coast finished voting. It was blamed for a decrease in California voting.
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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#39 Post by Octavious » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:35 pm

How on earth does data on returned mail ballots by party registration get around the exit polling rules?

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#40 Post by orathaic » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:25 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:35 pm
How on earth does data on returned mail ballots by party registration get around the exit polling rules?
This.

Though also, it feels pretty messed up that party registration is such a big thing... Like CCP registration is a pretty big advantage for people in China, but they only have one party to choose from...

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