Election Countdown Tracker

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flash2015
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Election Countdown Tracker

#1 Post by flash2015 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:48 pm

Time To Election: 74 days, 15 hours

Current FiveThirtyEight Data

Trump approval rating: 42.1% Approve 52.8% Disapprove
National Polls: Biden 51.2% Trump 42.8%
Based on current polling FiveThirtyEight currently believes Biden is favoured to win (Biden 72 out of 100, Trump 27 out of 100 and 1 in 100 chance of a tie)
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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#2 Post by Octavious » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:13 pm

Interesting set of figures. Is "out of 100" an American way of saying percent, or is this in reference to possible scenarios?

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#3 Post by flash2015 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:24 pm

This is a five thirty eight thing. They created 100 different possible outcome scenarios (I don't know why exactly 100):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

I assume based on current polling and margins of error for each poll.

Given what happened in 2016 they are of course being careful to cover their asses here "Don’t count the underdog out! Upset wins are surprising but not impossible.".

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#4 Post by flash2015 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:53 pm

According to realclearpolitics, Biden is currently about 2 points ahead of what Clinton was at the same time:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... 0-vs-2016/

Still a lot of time to go though. I am absolutely not going to start counting chickens until after polls close on November 3rd...

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#5 Post by Randomizer » Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:27 pm

Don't forget the Republican misinformation campaign to convince opposing voters that Election Day is being held on another day so they miss voting and all the mail-in ballot suppression.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#6 Post by Octavious » Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:55 pm

Randomizer wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:27 pm
Don't forget the Republican misinformation campaign to convince opposing voters that Election Day is being held on another day so they miss voting and all the mail-in ballot suppression.
:lol:

Anyone so utterly stupid that they miss the election because some dodgy bloke on the other side said it was the Tuesday after shouldn't be allowed anywhere near a voting booth! Don't you have laws equivalent to ours that preventing lunatics, idiots, and Lords from voting?

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#7 Post by Randomizer » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:50 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:55 pm
Don't you have laws equivalent to ours that preventing lunatics, idiots, and Lords from voting?
No, just look at the candidates on election day showing off that they voted. :)

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#8 Post by flash2015 » Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:39 pm

Day 1314 Of The Trump Administration
Time To Election: 67 days, 15 hours

Current FiveThirtyEight Data

Trump approval rating: 42.2% Approve 54.3% Disapprove
National Polls: Biden 50.6% Trump 42.2%
Based on current polling FiveThirtyEight currently believes Biden is slightly favoured to win (Biden 69 out of 100, Trump 30 out of 100 and 1 in 100 chance of a tie)

It is unclear yet whether polls are really even closer than what the fivethirtyeight average suggests. A recent Rasmussen poll had Biden only one point ahead (46 - 45) though this is a bit of an outlier compared to other polls still.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#9 Post by flash2015 » Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:08 pm

In the top battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona) Biden is ahead by less than Clinton was at the same time in 2016 (3.7% vs 4.8%). Trump won all six of these states in 2016:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... 0-vs-2016/

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#10 Post by flash2015 » Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:47 pm

To win Biden needs two of these six (if he wins Florida) or three of the six (if he doesn't. Given what happened at the RNC, Trump appears to be making a play for Minnesota which Clinton won by only 1.5% in 2016. If Trump could win this, it would likely mean that Biden would need to win an extra state out of these six.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#11 Post by Octavious » Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:38 pm

Does America experience a version of the UK'S "Shy Tory" phenomenon? Generally speaking (it varies from election to election) the Conservatives party will achieve a couple of percentage points more in an election than in an opinion poll because some people feel embarrassed or uncool saying they vote Tory. I'd imagine that the potential for this is even bigger in the US, but then Americans have never been a particularly embarrassment prone people.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#12 Post by flash2015 » Thu Aug 27, 2020 4:03 pm

I don't know of a general "Shy Republican" problem. Some people claim there was a "Shy Trumper" issue in 2016 but pollsters have downplayed it.

A big problem in 2016 was that the pollsters also didn't think Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin were really in play...the states which gave Trump victory. You would hope they don't make the same mistake again.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#13 Post by flash2015 » Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:42 am

Day 1323 Of The President Chaos Administration
Time To Election: 59 days, 3 hours

Current FiveThirtyEight Data

President Chaos approval rating: 43.5% Approve 52.3% Disapprove (-8.8)
National Polls: Sleepy Joe 50.4% President Chaos 43.0% (Sleepy Joe +7.4%)
Based on current polling FiveThirtyEight currently believes Sleepy Joe is favoured to win (Sleepy Joe 71 out of 100, President Chaos is 28 out of 100 and 1 in 100 chance of a tie)

Whilst his approval rating improved a little looks like there wasn't much of a bounce from the conventions for President Chaos...

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#14 Post by flash2015 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:53 pm

Day 1330 Of The President Chaos Administration
Time To Election: 52 days, 14 hours

Current FiveThirtyEight Data

President Chaos approval rating: 42.7% Approve 53.1% Disapprove (-10.4)
National Polls: Sleepy Joe 50.6% President Chaos 43.0% (Sleepy Joe +7.6%)
Based on current polling FiveThirtyEight currently believes Sleepy Joe is favoured to win (Sleepy Joe 75 out of 100, President Chaos is 25 out of 100)

2020 vs 2016 From RealClearPolitics

Sleepy Joe vs Crooked Hillary

National Polls: Sleepy Joe +5.3%
Favourability rating: Sleepy Joe +9.0%
Battleground States: Sleepy Joe +1.1% (Sleepy Joe up +3.9% against President Chaos)

It has been a bad week so far for President Chaos first with the Atlantic article and now with the Woodward book...so I would potentially expect some more movement towards Sleepy Joe in the next week.

It is remarkable though how stable the polling has been. Has everyone already made up their minds? What could help President Chaos close the gap? Note that given the current voting spread Sleepy Joe only needs to lose a couple of percentage points nationally for President Chaos to win the electoral college.

Early voting has started in North Carolina (a potential swing state) with people already mailing back absentee ballots. Early voting in Michigan (a swing state), Minnesota (a swing state) and New Jersey starts in a week. Pennsylvania (another swing state), whilst not allowing early in-person voting, may start sending out mail-in ballots in the next few days.

Republicans are claiming massive vote drive successes:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/1 ... nia-411232

Whilst democrats appear to be claiming big advantages in early voting based on those asking for absentee ballots:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/1 ... ead-412106

First presidential debate is scheduled for September 29, two and a half weeks from now.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#15 Post by Octavious » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:57 pm

Are there going to be head to head debates this election?

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#16 Post by flash2015 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:18 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:57 pm
Are there going to be head to head debates this election?
Yes, there will be three. First one - September 29.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#17 Post by Octavious » Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:24 pm

If things are going to change it will likely happen then. Lots of opportunities for a major cock-up. I imagine Trump is slightly more robust in that regard as his supporters have a high tolerance for him saying odd things, but if he looks weak (a sort of fumbling feeble performance like he had a while back when he took a load of paper charts to a coronavirus interview) he will suffer. Biden has to avoid getting over excited and saying something that will offend his far less tolerant supporters, such as making it too obvious that he's taking the black vote for granted. And it'll be interesting to see if he struggles much with his speech impediment.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#18 Post by flash2015 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:42 pm

Day 1337 Of The President Chaos Administration
Time To Election: 45 days, 15 hours

Current FiveThirtyEight Data

President Chaos approval rating: 43.3% Approve 52.7% Disapprove (-9.4)
National Polls: Sleepy Joe 50.4% President Chaos 43.6% (Sleepy Joe +6.8%)
Based on current polling FiveThirtyEight currently believes Sleepy Joe is favoured to win (Sleepy Joe 77 out of 100, President Chaos is 23 out of 100)

2020 vs 2016 From RealClearPolitics

Sleepy Joe vs Crooked Hillary

National Polls: Sleepy Joe +5.2% (their average is Sleepy Joe +5.9% vs FiveThirtyEights weighted average of +6.8%)
Favourability rating: Sleepy Joe +11.5% (total favourability +17.3%)
Battleground States: Sleepy Joe +1.8% (Sleepy Joe up +3.9% against President Chaos)

The vote tightened a little bit this week with Rasmussen actually putting President Chaos ahead...which was surprising for me as I had expected the Woodward revelations to hurt President Chaos more. But the poll average still has Sleepy Joe well ahead...now with an even bigger difference between 2020 and 2016.

This 2020 vs 2016 difference may not hold through October as Crooked Hillary did bounce coming out of the debates and after the "Access Hollywood" tapes before fading at the end due to the email revelations. For Sleepy Joe, we still need to wait for the Durham report which Barr appears to be rushing to get out before the election as an "October surprise" and which Republicans are feverishly hoping that it will implicate Biden in some way. Just like the Woodward revelations did not hurt Trump though, it is likely that whatever comes out of that probably won't move the needle much either (Barr made a statement yesterday that the problem with the Justice Department is that political appointees have had too little influence).

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#19 Post by Randomizer » Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:18 am

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-campai ... 00735.html

Trump is preparing to bypass voters in swing states with Republican controlled governments. Instead of certifying the ballot results, the legislatures would vote which candidate gets the electoral votes. Fake claims of voter fraud could be used to overturn the election.

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Re: Election Countdown Tracker

#20 Post by flash2015 » Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:52 pm

Day 1344 Of The President Chaos Administration
Time To Election: 38 days, 15 hours

Current FiveThirtyEight Data

President Chaos approval rating: 43.1% Approve 53.1% Disapprove (-10.0)
National Polls: Sleepy Joe 50.3% President Chaos 43.2% (Sleepy Joe +7.1%)
Based on current polling FiveThirtyEight currently believes Sleepy Joe is favoured to win (Sleepy Joe 77 out of 100, President Chaos is 23 out of 100)

2020 vs 2016 From RealClearPolitics

Sleepy Joe vs Crooked Hillary

National Polls: Sleepy Joe +3.6% (their average is Sleepy Joe +6.5% vs FiveThirtyEights weighted average of +7.1%)
Favourability rating: Sleepy Joe +7.3% (total favourability +16.1%)
Battleground States: Sleepy Joe +2.1% (Sleepy Joe up +3.6% against President Chaos)

Not much change since last week. Republicans are trying to dredge up Hunter Biden and the Russia investigation. President Chaos continues to say he won't accept the election result unless he wins which is causing concern. About half of US states have started early voting in some way, either by mailing out ballots or by allowing people to vote in person.

Next Tuesday (29th) is the first debate. President Chaos I believe foolishly has set expectations so low for Sleepy Joe that if Sleepy Joe gets off the stage without drooling or falling asleep he wins. Whatever happens I don't expect the debates to change many minds. People continue to appear to be set on their choices.

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