Update on Trump Presidency

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Fluminator
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Update on Trump Presidency

#1 Post by Fluminator » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:23 pm

I've been away from following American politics for awhile now. As Trump's first cycle is coming to a close, what's the main take away of his 4 years? Success? Failure? Not as good/bad as people expected?

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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#2 Post by Octavious » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:39 pm

He's still there, and he stands a good chance of winning another term. The American economy is in decent shape, NATO members are being bullied into actually pulling their weight for once, there have been no wars, and there have been no disasters.

I'd say it was slightly towards the higher end of my expectations, but nothing particularly unusual. Trump's about average in terms of performance, and considerably above average in terms of entertainment value.
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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#3 Post by Randomizer » Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:35 pm

Trump is king is a good description of his first term because he isn't president. He's pretty much running the country as his own kingdom where everyone is supposed to bow and praise him. Anyone else is an enemy of the state.

Just read about how much we spent to send Ivana to Dubai to film a Voice of America commercial for Trump resorts there.

Not to mention Trump resorts charging well over government allow rates for Secret Service having to go there after having to refund them the first few months of the Trump reign. The fact that this is still happening shows that Trump doesn't care for the law when it costs him money.

There have been no new "declared" wars. We are still fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. He moved troops into Saudi Arabia to help out against Yemen and started increased hostilities with Iran. As to disasters, it depends how you define it with no progress in cleaning up from hurricanes in US controlled Puerto Rico, worse border conditions with Mexico, ignoring unsecured border with Canada where there have been terrorist problems stopped by local law enforcement and not border patrol. In some places you can cross the Canadian border by driving over a grass median strip.

The great economy he inherited from Obama is still going strong despite the Trump tax on the economy with his trade wars. After two years he still hasn't got any concessions from China, there have been an increase in farm bankruptcies as they have lost sales, consumers are paying more to cover tariffs, and intellectual property thefts are up. That's before trillion dollar annual deficits as far as we can see to cover tax cuts for himself and the rich.

As for the tax cuts for the middle class, I just did my tax return and will be paying my new $1000 Trump tax increase from eliminating personal exemptions and increased postage for all the new schedules in the "simplified" Form 1040.

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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#4 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:37 pm

Octavious wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:39 pm
He's still there, and he stands a good chance of winning another term. The American economy is in decent shape, NATO members are being bullied into actually pulling their weight for once, there have been no wars, and there have been no disasters.

I'd say it was slightly towards the higher end of my expectations, but nothing particularly unusual. Trump's about average in terms of performance, and considerably above average in terms of entertainment value.
There is an ongoing, urgent climate disaster and Trump is pushing for increased coal production and reduced environmental protection, and giving his support to other environmentally destructive leaders such as the current regime in Brazil.

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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#5 Post by orathaic » Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:32 pm

Trump, Iran.

Trump, Syria, Turkey, Russia.

Trump, Israel, Palestine.

Trump Brexit.

Trump China.

Trump EU trade relations.

Pretty much disastrous foreign policy all round (Google any of these terms).

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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#6 Post by Octavious » Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:20 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:37 pm
There is an ongoing, urgent climate disaster and Trump is pushing for increased coal production and reduced environmental protection, and giving his support to other environmentally destructive leaders such as the current regime in Brazil.
Yeah, but that's largely irrelevant. We're pretty much at the stage now where market forces are taking renewables and running with them, and coal and oil will find it increasingly hard to complete on a pure cost basis. Trump can't change that reality. Which means that we shall soon have to face up to the fact that a lot of the wealth that currently exists on national and company books in the form of proven fossil fuel reserves is little more than wishful thinking. That's got the potential to be quite a shock when ignoring it ceases to be a viable option.
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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#7 Post by Octavious » Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:46 pm

orathaic wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:32 pm
Pretty much disastrous foreign policy all round (Google any of these terms).
Out of your list, only his Israel / Palestine policy I have any great objection to. And it's fair to say that no one has exactly had a successful policy on this issue.

The Syrian/Turkey/Russian front has been a bit of a mixed bag, but Obama did pretty awfully and entrenched a lot of the problems before Trump got anywhere near them.

As for the others, where are the disasters?
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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#8 Post by orathaic » Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:44 pm

Iran left the nuclear deal, basically failing about 40 years of nuclear non-proliferation foreign policy.

On Brexit he is just generally annoying his biggest ally (ie the EU) and trying to get a nice deal with the UK (who are between pissed off that the IS deal may lower standards, and overjoyed that the US trade might make lots of money for certain wealthy people... Depending on who you are.)

China, trade deals, continued one-up manship, tarrifs. Seems like Trump is ignoring the national interest, and creating a problem so he can swoop in and solve it when he needs a win.

In Syria, he gave the go ahead for Turkey (fellow NATO member) to invade and basically destroy the Kurdish fighting forces (SDF) who actually did most of the work on the ground of defeating ISIS. Meanwhile Turkey supports Islamic extremists who are willing to attack their enemies.

This betrayal was among the massive stories which could have ended any other president, but was just forgotten after the news cycle started talking about something else (and for all Obama didn't do in Syria, this decision was entirely Trump's, he may not have inherited a great situation, but he sure a hell didn't help).
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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#9 Post by Randomizer » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:28 pm

Presidential pardons for sale for only $200,000. Because Trump believes tax fraud is a rich person's right. After all his family has done it for years.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/family-1-tru ... 55647.html

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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#10 Post by Octavious » Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:50 am

orathaic wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:44 pm
Iran left the nuclear deal, basically failing about 40 years of nuclear non-proliferation foreign policy.
The Iran nuclear deal was a failure of nuclear non proliferation foreign policy in that it didn't stop Iran preparing to create nuclear weapons, and the limited protections that did exist would expire soon anyway. It was a feeble and ineffective compromise that was created purely so Western world leaders could be seen to be doing something.
orathaic wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:44 pm
In Syria, he gave the go ahead for Turkey (fellow NATO member) to invade and basically destroy the Kurdish fighting forces (SDF) who actually did most of the work on the ground of defeating ISIS. Meanwhile Turkey supports Islamic extremists who are willing to attack their enemies.
What would you have had him do? Erdoğan isn't a problem of Trump's making.
Would you have preferred him to to have left US troops as bystanders in the middle of a confused war zone? Would you have preferred him to have US troops open fire on a NATO ally? Would you have preferred him to try and cripple NATO by seeking to remove Turkey, who provide both a key position and significant military strength?

The EU have been equally pathetic, it must be said. They are too scared of Turkey's refugee powers to take action of any significance against him.
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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#11 Post by peterlund » Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:48 pm

I'd love to see "little" Mike Bloomberg kick the shithead's arse in November.

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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#12 Post by flash2015 » Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:41 am

Octavious wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:50 am
orathaic wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:44 pm
Iran left the nuclear deal, basically failing about 40 years of nuclear non-proliferation foreign policy.
The Iran nuclear deal was a failure of nuclear non proliferation foreign policy in that it didn't stop Iran preparing to create nuclear weapons, and the limited protections that did exist would expire soon anyway. It was a feeble and ineffective compromise that was created purely so Western world leaders could be seen to be doing something.
What source are you basing this? My understanding at least of the rational criticism of the deal wasn't about nuclear weapons...but that it wasn't broad enough (e.g. covering Iran's involvement in other middle eastern countries too). From all sources I have seen Iran was in compliance before Trump tore the deal up.
orathaic wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:44 pm
In Syria, he gave the go ahead for Turkey (fellow NATO member) to invade and basically destroy the Kurdish fighting forces (SDF) who actually did most of the work on the ground of defeating ISIS. Meanwhile Turkey supports Islamic extremists who are willing to attack their enemies.
What would you have had him do? Erdoğan isn't a problem of Trump's making.
Would you have preferred him to to have left US troops as bystanders in the middle of a confused war zone? Would you have preferred him to have US troops open fire on a NATO ally? Would you have preferred him to try and cripple NATO by seeking to remove Turkey, who provide both a key position and significant military strength?

The EU have been equally pathetic, it must be said. They are too scared of Turkey's refugee powers to take action of any significance against him.
Uh, US puts it foot down and tells Turkey it can't invade? You seriously believe that Turkey would be brazen enough to attack US forces?

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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#13 Post by flash2015 » Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:00 am

I believe Trump has done a lot of damage, whether it be to international relations, the rule of law, ratcheting polarization up to 11 and the further coarsening of discourse (it is almost impossible to see rational debate on almost any political issue now) or even things like the deficit (though both parties are kicking the can down the road to some extent).

The damage he has done though may take a while to appear. The economy is doing relatively well at the moment (knock on wood). And more often than not the incumbent president gets re-elected (only 5 out of 19 presidents since 1900 did not get re-elected). It is still a long way to the election...but it is a big hill for democrats to clime. I personally like Bernie as a person but I think he makes too many unnecessary enemies (I was #yanggang). Banks, billionaires and insurance companies aren't evil, they are working within the incentives provided by the law. There are lots of moderates that really don't like Trump. Bernie shouldn't be giving them a reason not to vote democrat. I think too many activists are in "Bernie bubbles" and are being blind to the risks here.

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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#14 Post by Octavious » Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:14 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:41 am
Uh, US puts it foot down and tells Turkey it can't invade? You seriously believe that Turkey would be brazen enough to attack US forces?
Ah, so your solution is to keep US troops stationed permanently in a hostile nation with their weapons pointed at a NATO ally?
flash2015 wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:41 am
From all sources I have seen Iran was in compliance before Trump tore the deal up.
Iran was in compliance. The problem with the deal is that being in compliance doesn't really mean a lot. Iran was perfectly free to work on missile delivery systems for nuclear weapons, and did so with enthusiasm. Iran was also free to improve its centrifuge system. The restrictions were time limited, with the restrictions on the numbers of centrifuges expiring after 10 years and the restrictions on stockpiling enriched uranium expiring 15 years after the deal was signed. So the end result is a deal that allows Iran a perfectly legal pathway to nuclear weapons in around a decade or so, with an influx of Western money to help pay for it. This is why Israel was so bloody furious about it.
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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#15 Post by orathaic » Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:56 pm

And ripping up the deal to apply sanctions forces Iran to accelerate their program so the Trump will treat them more like his friend in North Korea..
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Re: Update on Trump Presidency

#16 Post by flash2015 » Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:44 pm

Octavious wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:14 pm

Ah, so your solution is to keep US troops stationed permanently in a hostile nation with their weapons pointed at a NATO ally?
The US has troops stationed all over the world and has had big troop presences in the middle east for decades. I don't know why protecting the Kurds is suddenly now too much to ask. And anyway, saying no to Turkey now doesn't mean there could not be a negotiated deal down the road. Instead we just gave them a free pass to do whatever.
flash2015 wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:41 am
From all sources I have seen Iran was in compliance before Trump tore the deal up.
Iran was in compliance. The problem with the deal is that being in compliance doesn't really mean a lot. Iran was perfectly free to work on missile delivery systems for nuclear weapons, and did so with enthusiasm. Iran was also free to improve its centrifuge system. The restrictions were time limited, with the restrictions on the numbers of centrifuges expiring after 10 years and the restrictions on stockpiling enriched uranium expiring 15 years after the deal was signed. So the end result is a deal that allows Iran a perfectly legal pathway to nuclear weapons in around a decade or so, with an influx of Western money to help pay for it. This is why Israel was so bloody furious about it.
I understand the argument but this does not reflect the reality when the deal was signed. Before the deal Iran had a breakout of < 3 months for a nuclear bomb (Iran got rid of 98% of their enriched uranium). The scope of the deal was kept narrow to ensure agreement with all parties (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States)...and to build trust and lines of communication. It certainly did not preclude further negotiation on this (perhaps to extend the agreement) or on other issues (like their missile testing - note that there were still sanctions on Iran for military tech, including missile system). As well the money they got was THEIR money, no gift was given to them. Now we have absolutely no agreement...and I don't see why Iran would have any faith in coming to the table again (especially not without actually having nuclear weapons). How is this better?
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