Brexit

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Senlac
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Re: Brexit

#61 Post by Senlac » Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:48 pm

Well great, the self confessed “awkward woman” said what needed to be said.
Now God willing she makes it happen. These posing politicians, totally unfit to govern, will hopefully get straightened out in the next election.
Meanwhile we’ll be out, as chosen by the people nearly 3 years ago.

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Re: Brexit

#62 Post by orathaic » Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:38 pm

Senlac wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:48 pm
Well great, the self confessed “awkward woman” said what needed to be said.
Now God willing she makes it happen. These posing politicians, totally unfit to govern, will hopefully get straightened out in the next election.
Meanwhile we’ll be out, as chosen by the people nearly 3 years ago.
You mean as advised by the people, or at least some of the people. What 17 million out of a population 66 million, so approximately 25%?

Pity they didn't specify how to leave, or really any of the details. Does the will of the people mean food shortages? Is that the no deal brexit people voted for?

I could go on... Downsides of the Labour plan, being subject to rules of the EU but having no say in making them; or being in potentially protracted free trade negotiations while Northern Ireland remains in the customs Union?

Which did those 17 million wants? And if it means the UK lose Scotland and NI is that OK?

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Re: Brexit

#63 Post by Octavious » Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:58 pm

Nothing happened to keep calm and carry on. It was a piece of draft wartime propaganda that was never really used.

The trouble with the referendum result was the question wasn't suitable. People indicated their displeasure with the EU, but what to actually do beyond the vague notion of leaving was not explored. As such we have politicians flapping about in the dark and generally failing to do what the people want, and only a second clarification from the people can heal that.

If we go down a no deal route without a referendum supporting it the majority (Remainers and people who wanted to leave but assumed it would be orderly) will feel betrayed. If we leave with Corbyn's ultra light Brexit, or May's deal to a lesser extent, the vast majority (Remainers and people who wanted a clean break) will feel betrayed. And similar if we Remain. We need another referendum to put the final say firmly in the hands of the people, regardless of what it turns out to be.

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Re: Brexit

#64 Post by Octavious » Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:08 pm

orathaic wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:38 pm
Pity they didn't specify how to leave, or really any of the details. Does the will of the people mean food shortages? Is that the no deal brexit people voted for?
Now that is scaremongering poppycock. There will be no shortage of food. There may be temporary shortages of some particular items of food until alternative sources are obtained. No one will go hungry, but you may have to swap your French wine for something from Chile for a few weeks.

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Re: Brexit

#65 Post by Senlac » Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:58 pm

I agree for the most part. That’s coming from someone who has no absolute faith in democracy (even in good situations).

The Brexit question was very poor. Simple (which is good) but poor. It allowed every politician to put a different spin on the justification for their preferred choice of response, both leave or remain.
Thus when we got the leave result, we also got with it dozens of justifications (some valid, others not so much) which theoretically became policy priorities. But they couldn’t all be priorities. Remain would have been much easier. Who cares why we maintain the status quo?

The problem now is that the referendum question was very simple & the action required to uphold it thus very simple. Leave.
The implications of various cases (with/without EU agreement) was never asked & any assumption of what the leave voters thought or intended, just that, an unsubstantiated assumption.
If the UK is to follow it’s democratic traditions, then leave it has to be, one way or another, the will of the people has to be observed. To do otherwise makes a mockery of this referendum & all subsequent. If you’re gonna have the vote you have to respect the outcome.

To say it’s potentially the end of the world (even if wrong) is bullshit. Although maybe begrudgingly & understandably with conditions a future EU would welcome back a future UK with open arms. They could never afford to turn down an economy as large as the UK. We’re Diplomacy players & grasping that shouldn’t be challenging.

On a personal note I don’t believe it was a matter to ever put to a popular vote for many reasons.
1. Phrasing the question appropriately is the first obvious one. Not that it was easy, which is why you shouldn’t ask it!
2. More importantly in my view, the UK membership of the EU is a political treaty of giant proportions & lengthy duration. Since when did matters so important to the state get decided by the people?
There was no vote on the outbreak of WW1 as to which side Britain would fight! Statespeople decide these matters, not people.
3. If the political class did not want to hear leave (as was apparent in the Brexit voting exercise, for all parties except UKIP) why offer the possibility? A patronising exercise to show how democratic we all are? Complete madness.

But here we are, despite varied views on how we got here, to do anything but leave as best the UK can & cope with/take benefit from the new situation, & go again is ridiculous. Politically & socially.
The UK could prosper spectacularly, it may struggle, but all options are open to deal with whatever happens. It’s not gonna fall off the edge of the world. It’s still round.

It’s time the wrangling ended, grasp the opportunities (there will be many) & if in due course consensus decides it to have been a fundamental mistake (as many believe) turn it around. It’ll probably take less than 3 years to negotiate a return:-)

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Re: Brexit

#66 Post by Senlac » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:16 am

“Nothing happened to keep calm and carry on. It was a piece of draft wartime propaganda that was never really used.”

My parents would have disagreed with you enormously, though probably too polite to tell you. My father was an air raid warden during the London Blitz who spent the night trying to keep people safe & the day digging out the bodies of those that didn’t make it. My mother ran a bookshop in the shadow of St Paul’s Cathedral & walked past the craters & bodies on the way to work on many mornings. The family home & that of 4 neighbours vanished in a few miliseconds one night.

To tell them it was “not really used wartime propaganda” would have got a smile & silence from both of them. It was a necessary way of life that more recent generations could never conceive or understand.

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Re: Brexit

#67 Post by orathaic » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:12 am

Octavious wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:08 pm
orathaic wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:38 pm
Pity they didn't specify how to leave, or really any of the details. Does the will of the people mean food shortages? Is that the no deal brexit people voted for?
Now that is scaremongering poppycock. There will be no shortage of food. There may be temporary shortages of some particular items of food until alternative sources are obtained. No one will go hungry, but you may have to swap your French wine for something from Chile for a few weeks.
It depends on delays at your ports. Customs agents. How businesses which have adopted 'just in time' delivery (more important for manufacturing perhaps than food) to minimise their down time...

It may be a bigger issue for the NHS, which can take 6 months for certain things to come through. And can't take orders while the customs arrangements are unknown (ie for the last 6 months orders have been suspended for some items).

It maybe a serious issue for some vital medications, which you can't simply substitute for off brand Chilean knockoffs (probably more likely Russian knockoffs online... Though I don't know). People are legitimately* stockpiling medications, and that maybe preventing the NHS/pharmacies from stockpiling (I don't know exactly the supply chain, but I know if all the people buy up all the stock, you'd have to pull things out of your govt stockpile to prevent empty shelves, and the inevitable media fallout).

*and I say legitimately, because given how parilement appears to be fucking this up, it is legitimate to assume and prepare for the worst.

Say what you want about the UK's economy, (and I'm more worried about the Irish economy to be Frank) but it will not grow as fast on average (even if it doesn't shrink) in the next two years (under no deal).

But that growth will not be evenly spread out, if everyone is hit equally by tarrifs, then some citizens will be hurt more, ie those who have the least. The wealthy have very little to worry about. Small price rises and luxuries unavailable (though I've heard they are driving to France and stockpiling cheese and wine) will be manageable for them. How and ever the less than wealthy will likely struggle.

The City of London may see growth while other regions are screwed. Scottish and Welsh farmers, upon losing EU subsidies (the ever hated Common Agricultural Policy). And with tarrif barriers on food products, there is suddenly a choice. You can either allow all nations import... Which the US and other Americas would love, lower standard food stuff coming in under quotas - that would again screw local farmers who currently produce higher cost meat (because of higher EU standards).

Really I'm hearing more about this frm the perspective of Irish farmers exporting to the UK. (FYI the EU could give two shits about the UK economy... The are barely even worried about the Irish economy, assuming it will get some funding to cover losses). Far worse for Irish farmers, under WTO rules, either there is a huge tarrif barrier, and exporters are hit hard. Or there is a quota under which there is no tarrif, and they are competing with cheap South American meat (produced to lower standards). Equal treatment of all third party countries (ie WTO rules) is shit for the Irish farmer no matter the result.

And politically, yes the Irish farmer is fairly significant in terms of Irish political parties. But the EU will be happy that they are a small enough fish economically to buy them off. Might save that industry, but have you heard anyone in the UK talking about doing the same for British export industries?

As for a trade deal. That could take years, it is something that the EU will be happy to do (as they have already signed up to under May's aborted deal) but a no deal brexit, plus years of trade negotiations with the EU will hurt many specific sectors of the UK economy. And even if there are no food shortages, prices will go up, and the poorest will suffer significant hardship.

I seriously doubt this was what anyone voted for.

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Re: Brexit

#68 Post by Octavious » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:35 pm

Senlac wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:16 am
To tell them it was “not really used wartime propaganda” would have got a smile & silence from both of them. It was a necessary way of life that more recent generations could never conceive or understand.
That's interesting. My grandad, who served in the RAF from '39, and was stationed in various places including Plymouth and North Africa, called it a load of codswallop and said he'd never heard of it. His experience of the war included tales of young men issued with guns for the first time shooting at the feet of Egyptian dancing girls because they'd seen similar in cowboy films, and a mate of his breaking his neck when diving head first into a half finished trench when an air raid siren went off. And the ominous sight of watching British tanks in full retreat after being smashed by German armour in Africa, with the light infantry being driven to the front to provide reinforcements.

I'm not saying that your parents were in any way wrong, but that their experience was far from universal.

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Re: Brexit

#69 Post by Senlac » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:43 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:35 pm
Senlac wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:16 am
To tell them it was “not really used wartime propaganda” would have got a smile & silence from both of them. It was a necessary way of life that more recent generations could never conceive or understand.
That's interesting. My grandad, who served in the RAF from '39, and was stationed in various places including Plymouth and North Africa, called it a load of codswallop and said he'd never heard of it. His experience of the war included tales of young men issued with guns for the first time shooting at the feet of Egyptian dancing girls because they'd seen similar in cowboy films, and a mate of his breaking his neck when diving head first into a half finished trench when an air raid siren went off. And the ominous sight of watching British tanks in full retreat after being smashed by German armour in Africa, with the light infantry being driven to the front to provide reinforcements.

I'm not saying that your parents were in any way wrong, but that their experience was far from universal.
No they weren’t wrong, just residents of London at a time when Plymouth may have been preferable...
My father got an easy ride later on, posted to Rhodesia with the RAF as a pay clerk. He had happy memories of that & a nice tan. My mother’s easy ride only started when the air raids stopped...

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Re: Brexit

#70 Post by Octavious » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:47 pm

Senlac wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:43 pm
No they weren’t wrong, just residents of London at a time when Plymouth may have been preferable...
I suspect not. There was very little of Plymouth left after the war.

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Re: Brexit

#71 Post by Senlac » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:56 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:47 pm
Senlac wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:43 pm
No they weren’t wrong, just residents of London at a time when Plymouth may have been preferable...
I suspect not. There was very little of Plymouth left after the war.
From September 1940 until March 1941 it was preferable. Plymouth saw there troubles too.

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Re: Brexit

#72 Post by Octavious » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:19 pm

Anyway, let's not get too bogged down in debates about which city suffered more. Even when the bombing stopped, Londoners were faced with the awful reality that they were still in London. A fate few would envy.

Currently listening to Govey, who is actually attempting an "unknown unknowns" speech. He seems to think that by the end of today there will be genuine clarity on what the alternatives to May's deal will be. We can but hope.

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Re: Brexit

#73 Post by Octavious » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:07 pm

Ah, now that's interesting. Emmanuel Macron (the French President whose name is an interesting combination of soft porn star and Jacobite rebel) has said it's either May's deal or no deal. May has more allies in Europe than I thought.
1

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Re: Brexit

#74 Post by Octavious » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:33 pm

Or perhaps not. "May's deal, no deal, or a deep political change" is what's now being reported, so he's not not saying anything of significance after all.

That was almost exciting for a moment.

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Re: Brexit

#75 Post by orathaic » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:54 pm

An extension if May's deal passes, or no deal... Or they can ask for a longer extension (offering time for an election and/or referendum).

Part of me suspect May's deal will actually pass third time.

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Re: Brexit

#76 Post by Octavious » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:30 pm

A few days ago I would have agreed, but the direction of travel recently has been a hardening of the opposition to her.

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Re: Brexit

#77 Post by orathaic » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:54 pm

We'll soon see. If I were abetting man, or I had any sterling to gamble...


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Re: Brexit

#79 Post by Octavious » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:19 am

Golly, that's a link that does a grand job of hiding its points behind a load of guff. It spends ages nit picking over EU growth forecasts that would turn off 90 percent of everyone, let alone Brexiteers, and only then mentions difficulties like getting trade agreements with the South American block when the permanently peeved Argies are at the table. Which numpty put that together?

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Re: Brexit

#80 Post by ksako8 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:34 am

I was impressed with how the EU27 came to a decision.

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