Government Shutdown

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ND
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Re: Government Shutdown

#41 Post by ND » Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:16 am

Randomizer wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:30 pm
ND wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:17 pm
The government stays shut down until Democrats act like adults and work with Trump on a compromise. God bless Mr. Trump. Only adult up there.
Snowflake Trump keeps crying I won't compromise until I get my wall after Limbaugh and others called him weak. Which isn't the definition of compromise.

Meanwhile the White House and other government agencies quote statistics on the amount of drugs and terrorists stopped entering US when almost all of them are stopped at ports of entry. Why isn't Trump calling for more funds to upgrade areas that really need them?

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/07/politics ... index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/12/us/drug- ... index.html
Key word you used is 'almost' as long as any drugs or trafficking occurs we are failing out country. If the wall can save one more person it's worth any expense.

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Re: Government Shutdown

#42 Post by orathaic » Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:42 am

ND, didn't Trump say Mexico 🇲🇽 would pay for the wall?

Also, what do you say to the very clear stats which indicate a much lower crime rate among both legal and illegal immigrants?
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Re: Government Shutdown

#43 Post by Octavious » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:05 am

That would be surprising. The experience of Germany is that migrants are indeed behind an increase in crime rates.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42557828

The reasons given are pretty logical. Migrants, illegal and legal, tend to come from age demographics more likely to commit crime, and are generally from poorer backgrounds etc. That does not change the fact that a victim of crime caused by an illegal immigrant has particularly reason to feel peeved.
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Re: Government Shutdown

#44 Post by JECE » Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:41 pm

JECE wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:10 am
This was a pleasant read. I was expecting a series of far-right loony posts. Has webDip finally matured?
TrPrado wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:59 am
Oh well that can certainly be changed.
Alas . . .
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orathaic
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Re: Government Shutdown

#45 Post by orathaic » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:29 pm

Octavious wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:05 am
That would be surprising. The experience of Germany is that migrants are indeed behind an increase in crime rates.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42557828

The reasons given are pretty logical. Migrants, illegal and legal, tend to come from age demographics more likely to commit crime, and are generally from poorer backgrounds etc. That does not change the fact that a victim of crime caused by an illegal immigrant has particularly reason to feel peeved.
Now be fair, and compare like with like, how are the young male migrants crime rates compared to the young male non-migrants?

Over time those young males will become not young and probably still male... But they may have illegal children who are less male.
Wikipedia wrote:
There is no empirical evidence that either legal or illegal immigration increases crime rate in the United States.[173] Most studies in the U.S. have found lower crime rates among immigrants than among non-immigrants, and that higher concentrations of immigrants are associated with lower crime rates.[1][174][175][176][177][178][179][180][181][182][183][184][185][186][187][188][189][190][191][192][193][194][195][196][excessive citations]
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Re: Government Shutdown

#46 Post by Octavious » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:48 pm

orathaic wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:29 pm
Now be fair, and compare like with like, how are the young male migrants crime rates compared to the young male non-migrants?
To be fair, if the illegal immigrants had been deported then none of the crimes they committed would have happened. Telling a victim of crime caused by an illegal immigrant that the person who wronged them was no more likely to have done it than a native does not right that wrong, does not undo the damage in any way. It remains a crime that should never have had an opportunity to take place.

As for your Wikipedia quote, it is interesting that the studies focused on immigrants rather than illegal immigrants. One would imagine that a motivation for legal immigrants to be less inclined to risk breaking the law is the prospect of facing deportation if they do so.
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Re: Government Shutdown

#47 Post by orathaic » Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:36 am

No, Octavious, the fear of deportation applies to illegal immigrants, possibly more so.
Historically, the US has had a policy of only those illegal immigrants who were found to break other laws. Which is pretty good incentive. Trump may be changing that...
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Re: Government Shutdown

#48 Post by Octavious » Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:36 am

The US law is quite clear on the subject of deportable aliens, Ora. Any immigrant who has not become a fully fledged citizen can be deported and effectively banned from the US for life for all kinds of offences.
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Re: Government Shutdown

#49 Post by flash2015 » Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:28 pm

orathaic wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:36 am
No, Octavious, the fear of deportation applies to illegal immigrants, possibly more so.
Historically, the US has had a policy of only those illegal immigrants who were found to break other laws. Which is pretty good incentive. Trump may be changing that...
That isn't exactly true. As a green card holder, I know that pretty much anything more than a traffic ticket could lead to deportation. It has been like that for a long, long time.

The thing which is changing now is that in many countries (like Australia and the US) even being a naturalized citizen doesn't guarantee that you can't be deported if they have somewhere to send you.

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Re: Government Shutdown

#50 Post by flash2015 » Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:43 pm

Octavious wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:48 pm
orathaic wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:29 pm
Now be fair, and compare like with like, how are the young male migrants crime rates compared to the young male non-migrants?
To be fair, if the illegal immigrants had been deported then none of the crimes they committed would have happened. Telling a victim of crime caused by an illegal immigrant that the person who wronged them was no more likely to have done it than a native does not right that wrong, does not undo the damage in any way. It remains a crime that should never have had an opportunity to take place.

As for your Wikipedia quote, it is interesting that the studies focused on immigrants rather than illegal immigrants. One would imagine that a motivation for legal immigrants to be less inclined to risk breaking the law is the prospect of facing deportation if they do so.
Why is it helpful to blame the crime on immigrants? Only a small percentage of people ever commit a crime. How does demonizing the 95-98% of people that never commit a crime help the situation? I see this simplistic blame game increasing racial tensions, which is likely to lead to more crime, not less.
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Re: Government Shutdown

#51 Post by Octavious » Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:08 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:43 pm
Why is it helpful to blame the crime on immigrants? Only a small percentage of people ever commit a crime. How does demonizing the 95-98% of people that never commit a crime help the situation? I see this simplistic blame game increasing racial tensions, which is likely to lead to more crime, not less.
An honest analysis of the opportunities and threats arising from immigration is not demonizing by any stretch of the imagination. In the case of allowing illegal immigrants to stay the risk of crime is a real threat that must be considered, although I'd argue that the greater threat is to the perception of fairness with the immigration system as a whole. For that reason I'm in favour of deporting all illegal immigrants without exception. Trump's wall idea as a means of controlling illegal immigration is not a solution I'd have opted for, but the intent behind it is something I have no problem with.
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Re: Government Shutdown

#52 Post by orathaic » Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:19 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:36 am
The US law is quite clear on the subject of deportable aliens, Ora. Any immigrant who has not become a fully fledged citizen can be deported and effectively banned from the US for life for all kinds of offences.
*can be* is the vital part here. The fact that they can be deported, but are being ignored, means that it is only when they come to the attention of authorities that the actually ARE deported.

So legal or illegal, if they work quietly, pay their income and sales tax, the US govt has for decades ignored them. One criminal action and no need to even bother wasting time and money bringing them through the courts, immediate deportation.

I admit I'm not privy to the details of this as flash describes them, but the incentive is there for all immigrants to avoid any crimes. And the crime statistics bears this out.

That is what you see when you do an honest analysis.

Trump's Wall will do not about the majority of immigrants who fly into the US. Except that draconian measures have been shown to increase the total numbers *staying*. If a migrant enters the US legally, and then over stays their visa (which is a large percentage of 'illegal' migrants). They would happily return home if they thought coming back to the US would always be an option.

Without that option, more tlstsy in the US for longer, and once these 'young males' get 10 or 20 years into their stay, they tend to settle down and have families. Which leads to them not wanting to relocate.

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Re: Government Shutdown

#53 Post by ND » Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:36 pm

Anyone here illegally should be deported. They are a net drain on social service programs and commit a dispeoportinate amount of crime. We need the wall and an increase in deportations and an end to ridiculous sanctuary City laws.

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Re: Government Shutdown

#54 Post by Octavious » Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:24 pm

orathaic wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:19 pm
So legal or illegal, if they work quietly, pay their income and sales tax, the US govt has for decades ignored them. One criminal action and no need to even bother wasting time and money bringing them through the courts, immediate deportation.

I admit I'm not privy to the details of this as flash describes them, but the incentive is there for all immigrants to avoid any crimes. And the crime statistics bears this out.
I am happy to see you arguing that harsh punishment is an effective deterrent against crime, Ora. We'll make a right winger out of you yet ;)
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Re: Government Shutdown

#55 Post by orathaic » Thu Jan 24, 2019 5:08 pm

ND wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:36 pm
Anyone here illegally should be deported. They are a net drain on social service programs and commit a dispeoportinate amount of crime. We need the wall and an increase in deportations and an end to ridiculous sanctuary City laws.
BS, how are they a drain on social service programs? When you need citizenship to claim them. They pay taxes (income and sales) but can't claim benefits, so the are a net gain to the country (probably one reason they aren't deported).

Sanctuary cities choose to keep migrant workers because they know that they benefit. The wall is a waste, planes fly the majority of 'illlegals' over it as present, a wall will not stop them.

Have you any evidence regarding 'disproportionate' amounts of crime?
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Re: Government Shutdown

#56 Post by Jamiet99uk » Thu Jan 24, 2019 5:17 pm

ND wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:16 am
If the wall can save one more person it's worth any expense.
Any public expense is worth it, to save one life?

Presumably you support state funded healthcare for all, then?

That would save many, many lives.
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Re: Government Shutdown

#57 Post by flash2015 » Thu Jan 24, 2019 5:38 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 5:17 pm
ND wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:16 am
If the wall can save one more person it's worth any expense.
Any public expense is worth it, to save one life?

Presumably you support state funded healthcare for all, then?

That would save many, many lives.
And gun control too of course.
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Re: Government Shutdown

#58 Post by flash2015 » Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:09 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:08 pm
flash2015 wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:43 pm
Why is it helpful to blame the crime on immigrants? Only a small percentage of people ever commit a crime. How does demonizing the 95-98% of people that never commit a crime help the situation? I see this simplistic blame game increasing racial tensions, which is likely to lead to more crime, not less.
An honest analysis of the opportunities and threats arising from immigration is not demonizing by any stretch of the imagination. In the case of allowing illegal immigrants to stay the risk of crime is a real threat that must be considered, although I'd argue that the greater threat is to the perception of fairness with the immigration system as a whole. For that reason I'm in favour of deporting all illegal immigrants without exception. Trump's wall idea as a means of controlling illegal immigration is not a solution I'd have opted for, but the intent behind it is something I have no problem with.
But it isn't an honest debate, is it? That is the problem. I certainly wouldn't have a problem with a proper nuanced debate which encompasses the complexity of the issue...but this isn't what we are getting. It is "all immigrants are criminals" and "build a wall" will solve all the problems - neither of which is remotely true.

If Trump's tactic finally caused this proper debate to happen I would be happy as both parties have been kicking the can down the road for the past three decades. But unfortunately, all that is happening is that both sides are becoming more extreme in their positions...so I don't see anything more than a token deal coming through in the foreseeable future kicking the can down the road probably for yet another decade.

A proper solution needs three pillars - better enforcement (e.g. both stopping illegal immigration and putting people in jail for knowingly hiring people without work permits), easier paths to legal immigration (you have to make it more worthwhile to apply legally than going illegal) and some level of amnesty (getting all illegals out is a fantasy, especially those that have been here for a long time).
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Re: Government Shutdown

#59 Post by Octavious » Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:40 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:09 pm
But it isn't an honest debate, is it? That is the problem. I certainly wouldn't have a problem with a proper nuanced debate which encompasses the complexity of the issue...but this isn't what we are getting. It is "all immigrants are criminals" and "build a wall" will solve all the problems - neither of which is remotely true.
Well, all illegal immigrants are criminals by definition. I would make the observation that the US takes in a rather large number of legal immigrants for a nation supposedly demonizing them. Indeed, I've yet to meet a single person who has claimed that all immigrants are criminals, nor that a wall will solve everything for that matter. Plenty of people have argued that a wall will help, and it's certainly been an extremely popular policy in Europe. A policy which has enjoyed some degree of success. Whether it's the right answer for America I have no idea, but it was very much a headline policy of the chap who won the election. There's a strong argument that there's a democratic mandate to give the wall a try.
flash2015 wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:09 pm
A proper solution needs three pillars - better enforcement (e.g. both stopping illegal immigration and putting people in jail for knowingly hiring people without work permits), easier paths to legal immigration (you have to make it more worthwhile to apply legally than going illegal) and some level of amnesty (getting all illegals out is a fantasy, especially those that have been here for a long time).
I largely agree. Certainly there must be better enforcement in order to establish a respect for the law and a confidence that people will be treated fairly. I think an amnesty of sorts may well be a necessary part of the solution. Whether paths should be made easier or not for legal immigration is very much down to the will of the American people. The current policy is not ungenerous.
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Re: Government Shutdown

#60 Post by Jamiet99uk » Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:01 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:40 pm
Plenty of people have argued that a wall will help, and it's certainly been an extremely popular policy in Europe. A policy which has enjoyed some degree of success.
Are you talking about the Berlin wall? That was hardly popular. If you're not, which European countries have recently built border walls?

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