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Re: Brexit

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:57 am
by Octavious
You were? They spent hours and hours making the obvious choice that everyone has been expecting them to make for weeks. I was put in mind of my family at a restaurant trying to decide if they want dessert or not. The answer will always be yes, but somehow it takes the best part of an hour to get there.

In a new statement that I'm going to refer to as Emmanuel II: The joys of a Frenchman, MacRon has given the odds of May's deal passing as 1/20.

Tempted, Ora?

Re: Brexit

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:34 am
by orathaic
Bet 1€ and get 20£ if it passes? That sounds too good to pass up!

Re: Brexit

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:32 pm
by Octavious
It does assume May lasts long enough for the vote to take place...

Re: Brexit

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:37 pm
by ksako8
I expect the UK to make the obvious choice too, but they have been bickering for four months

Re: Brexit

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:11 pm
by orathaic
This whole thing started when the Conservative party assumed people would vote for the obvious option. Peace, economic prosperity, global political and diplomatic influence... For all the flaws the EU has (and I will be the first to complain) Europeans have been living through something of a golden age...

Of course the Conservatives may have missed out this alliance: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... and-brexit

Re: Brexit

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:19 pm
by Octavious
I'm not convinced that's true. There had been a growing anti European feeling for some time, both within the major parties and amongst the public. It was approaching the stage where everything about Europe was becoming a battleground, which was seriously impacting our ability to get things done. The referendum was about lancing the boil before it got out of hand and we lost control.

The problem was that the referendum came too late, not that we had one. And there was a lot of bad luck. I don't think anyone anticipated that the Labour Party would elect a Brexit supporting leader, and it was unfortunate that Europe didn't believe a Brexit vote was possible. The pro-Brexit campaign was also far better run than anyone was expecting.

As for a golden age, I guess it depends on your point of view. We're not slaughtering each other on an industrial scale, but the world wars are not a particularly impressive benchmark to beat.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:53 pm
by orathaic
This is the first time in a thousand years that European nations aren't at war with each other, either in Europe proper or (like the century after the Congress of Vienna) fighting for control of the rest of the world... With each other.

So it may be a bit optomistic to claim this is a golden age. If the EU project goes well and proceeds for the next 200 years, then in 1000 years maybe we will look back on it as a golden age. Maybe Brexit will actually demonstrate the flawed political structure of the EU and cause a great reform phase, or dismantling to phase as the EU dissolves into less closer unions... Who knows.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:18 am
by ksako8
History will look back at Brexit and assess: what the heck were they thinking?

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:19 am
by peterlund
ksako8 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:34 am
I was impressed with how the EU27 came to a decision.
They were so tired of May coming there begging and begging. Now we need to clear our desk from this tedious issue and move on to all the other much more important matters for Europe.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:07 am
by Octavious
peterlund wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:19 am
ksako8 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:34 am
I was impressed with how the EU27 came to a decision.
They were so tired of May coming there begging and begging. Now we need to clear our desk from this tedious issue and move on to all the other much more important matters for Europe.
You've really not been paying attention at all, have you? We're miles away from this being over. And even if we were it's only one manifestation of wider anti EU feeling that's been increasing across the EU.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:17 am
by orathaic
Octavious wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:07 am
peterlund wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:19 am
ksako8 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:34 am
I was impressed with how the EU27 came to a decision.
They were so tired of May coming there begging and begging. Now we need to clear our desk from this tedious issue and move on to all the other much more important matters for Europe.
You've really not been paying attention at all, have you? We're miles away from this being over. And even if we were it's only one manifestation of wider anti EU feeling that's been increasing across the EU.
Regardless of the anti EU feelings you think you see, Power protects itself, and the EU has accumulated much power... I can only assume that they will not be blind-sided again. But we shall see.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:27 am
by orathaic
When I first saw this it was at 800 thousand...

https://odileeds.org/projects/petitions/?241584

Now it is up to 29% of the electorate in some places.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:04 pm
by Octavious
orathaic wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:27 am
When I first saw this it was at 800 thousand...

https://odileeds.org/projects/petitions/?241584

Now it is up to 29% of the electorate in some places.
It is pretty much irrelevant in the sense it adds nothing new. We have always known that there are millions of pro EU people in the UK. It will no doubt feature in a couple of speeches, but beyond that it's pretty meaningless. These petitions are designed to bring issues that matter to people, but for whatever reason don't feature strongly on Parliament's radar, to the attention of MPs. In the case of Brexit, it doesn't really do anything.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:05 pm
by orathaic
Octavious wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:04 pm
orathaic wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:27 am
When I first saw this it was at 800 thousand...

https://odileeds.org/projects/petitions/?241584

Now it is up to 29% of the electorate in some places.
It is pretty much irrelevant in the sense it adds nothing new. We have always known that there are millions of pro EU people in the UK. It will no doubt feature in a couple of speeches, but beyond that it's pretty meaningless. These petitions are designed to bring issues that matter to people, but for whatever reason don't feature strongly on Parliament's radar, to the attention of MPs. In the case of Brexit, it doesn't really do anything.
Yeah, parliament doesn't really want* to set a precedent of listening to the people... Who knows what would happen.

*again, power protects itself. Applies equally here.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:51 pm
by Octavious
I don't follow the connection. Over 16 million people went to the trouble of voting Remain. In what sense does a quarter of them saying, a few years later, "we really mean it" change anything? How does this power protecting itself notion of yours apply in this case?

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:22 pm
by orathaic
Parliament does not want to be seen to do whatever a crowd of 4 million people sign a petition for them to do. They will protect the power of parliament by ignoring a petition.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:23 pm
by peterlund
Octavious wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:07 am
peterlund wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:19 am
ksako8 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:34 am
I was impressed with how the EU27 came to a decision.
They were so tired of May coming there begging and begging. Now we need to clear our desk from this tedious issue and move on to all the other much more important matters for Europe.
You've really not been paying attention at all, have you? We're miles away from this being over. And even if we were it's only one manifestation of wider anti EU feeling that's been increasing across the EU.
It is you that do not seem to understand very much. The fact is that news about Brexit is not very intensely reported in the rest of EU (maybe more on Ireland since they are more affected by your shit). And yes because of our uninterest in you shit, I have probably missed some details. And frankly I look forward to the day I do not need talk about this subject any longer.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:42 pm
by Octavious
peterlund wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:23 pm
And frankly I look forward to the day I do not need talk about this subject any longer.
For once we are very much in agreement.
orathaic wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:22 pm
Parliament does not want to be seen to do whatever a crowd of 4 million people sign a petition for them to do. They will protect the power of parliament by ignoring a petition.
Parliament loves being seen doing what the public wants them to do. There's nothing Parliament would love more than if the people decided in great numbers that Brexit was a bad idea and that it could simply be called off. Sadly, that hasn't happened.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:57 pm
by flash2015
orathaic wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:27 am
When I first saw this it was at 800 thousand...

https://odileeds.org/projects/petitions/?241584

Now it is up to 29% of the electorate in some places.
I think Brexit is now inevitable. Another referendum, unless won by remain with a massive majority (e.g. 60%+) is just going to lead to more social instability.

Honestly, May should just pull her finger out and do it with "no deal" now. Give the Brexit hardliners what they want. The world won't end and it is important for long term social cohesion irrespective of the potential economic repercussions. If it causes major economic pain Britain can always rejoin at some later point...and the question of Brexit will be closed for generations. If it doesn't cause major economic harm, then the Brexiteers were right...and we can re-assess the importance of other global institutions too.

Re: Brexit

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:06 pm
by Octavious
The trouble is that it isn't particularly good for social cohesion. The original referendum question was fine if Remain had won, but it simply wasn't designed for a Brexit victory. A no deal Brexit will satisfy a fair number of people, but far from a majority. Combine economic hardship and a majority of people thinking it was a bad or awful idea and you have a potentially explosive mix.