European Election Night(s)!

Any political discussion should go here. This subforum will be moderated differently than other forums.
Forum rules
1.) No personal threats.
2.) No doxxing/revealing personal information.
3.) No spam.
4.) No circumventing press restrictions.
5.) No racism, sexism, homophobia, or derogatory posts.
Message
Author
Octavious
Posts: 920
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Location: The Five Valleys, Gloucestershire
Karma: 648
Contact:

European Election Night(s)!

#1 Post by Octavious » Fri May 10, 2019 11:55 am

Yes, the hotly anticipated 2019 EU elections are just weeks away, and they're in danger of actually being interesting. Traditionally in the UK this is the one time members of the public have a decent chance of seeing the name of their representative, and some of the really keen ones might even be aware of the pan European parties they're supposedly aligned to. This year it's a bit special, as it could well be our last one.

So let's analyse voting intention for the main players, starting with the Tories. Who can they rely on to vote for them?

Well, firstly there are the supporters of the Prime Minister's deal (at least two people, assuming Mr May is as loyal as he appears). Add to that the candidates themselves, along with their close friends and family (a couple of thousand, perhaps?). Add Tory MPs who are loyal to the Prime Minister even though they hate the deal itself (half a dozen?), traditional Tory voters who haven't been paying attention (50,000 or so) and left wingers who mark the wrong box by mistake (another thousand).

All in all, it's going to be one hell of a beating... There's literally no reason to vote Tory. No reason to vote Labour either, although they may benefit from having more traditional voters who don't pay attention. Brexit Party for the win, and a toss up between Labour and the Lib Dems for second. Will the Tories beat the Greens or Change UK? Touch and go, I reckon...

orathaic
Posts: 192
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:20 pm
Karma: 71

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#2 Post by orathaic » Fri May 10, 2019 12:55 pm

What is weird to me is, and you can use this to advantage predictions here.

England and NI just had elections. Local elections which will give some idea of where votes will go.

This day two weeks, Ireland will have European elections, Local elections and a referendum on divorce (as it is currently limited by the constitution, and we'd really like to have the parliament vote on legislation on this).

I suspect turnout will be rather low in the UK, and lower than Ireland in particular.

Octavious
Posts: 920
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Location: The Five Valleys, Gloucestershire
Karma: 648
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#3 Post by Octavious » Fri May 10, 2019 2:10 pm

I don't think that the local election result will resemble the European elections in any shape or form.

In terms of turnout, I have no idea. Traditionally it's low in the UK, largely because of the awful PR system that destroys the connection between voter and representative, and also because the European Parliament itself seems distant and aloof. This time it may be different because of Brexit, but I couldn't even guess at how different it might be, or even in which direction.

Octavious
Posts: 920
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Location: The Five Valleys, Gloucestershire
Karma: 648
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#4 Post by Octavious » Fri May 10, 2019 5:32 pm

Genuinely torn this election. Change UK, the Lib Dems, or the Brexit Party.

Change UK were my original pick, but they have been disappointing since their first week. The Lib Dems have been consistently disappointing for years, but by virtue of the shiteness of others are starting to look like the leaders of Remain. The Brexit Party actually have candidates I've heard of and respect, and the only leader with any credibility. They're also the people I'd prefer to be in the European Parliament if Brexit was cancelled. The only downside is that they want Brexit...

MajorMitchell
Posts: 337
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:05 am
Location: As directed by The Fire Breathing MemSahib, Her Imperiousness Indoors lying on a sofa eating​ cakes
Karma: 105

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#5 Post by MajorMitchell » Tue May 14, 2019 12:54 pm

Is Naughty Nigel Flappermac ( it's some forgettable surname) running ?

Octavious
Posts: 920
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Location: The Five Valleys, Gloucestershire
Karma: 648
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#6 Post by Octavious » Tue May 14, 2019 6:33 pm

Running and winning by a country mile. He is by far the most credible leader of the parties in England (I can't quite believe I'm writing that, but it's true), and he has a clear message.

peterlund
Posts: 645
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:52 pm
Location: Sverige
Karma: 126
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#7 Post by peterlund » Tue May 14, 2019 10:21 pm

Why do you care? You are leaving right?

After you have left, you will peacefully fall into the shadows in the outskirts of Europe and no-one will really care about what's going on over there.

The only reason to ever look back, would be that the Irish have yet another problem with you that we need to solve somehow...

Octavious
Posts: 920
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Location: The Five Valleys, Gloucestershire
Karma: 648
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#8 Post by Octavious » Tue May 14, 2019 11:03 pm

There are several simple solutions to the Irish problem. We'd be quite willing to accept a United Ireland returned to its rightful place as one of the home nations of the UK. Failing that, and in the spirit of compromise, we could probably accept Northern Ireland remaining in the EU as long as the French give us back Calais.

In all seriousness, peterlund, your enthusiasm for commenting on Brexit is matched only by your ignorance. If you have a vaguely intelligent comment to make by all means break the habit of a lifetime and do so, but I won't hold my breath.

Telamor
Posts: 172
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:16 am
Location: Durham, UK
Karma: 87

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#9 Post by Telamor » Wed May 15, 2019 2:17 pm

It's pretty disingenuous to say there are simple solutions to the Irish problem Oct. There's no solution that doesn't piss of one side of the sectarian divide and allows the UK to completely withdraw from the EU.

Octavious
Posts: 920
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Location: The Five Valleys, Gloucestershire
Karma: 648
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#10 Post by Octavious » Wed May 15, 2019 3:10 pm

:shock:

Telamor
Posts: 172
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:16 am
Location: Durham, UK
Karma: 87

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#11 Post by Telamor » Wed May 15, 2019 5:24 pm

Octavious wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 3:10 pm
:shock:
I'm assuming that means I miss read your tone?

peterlund
Posts: 645
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:52 pm
Location: Sverige
Karma: 126
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#12 Post by peterlund » Wed May 15, 2019 6:46 pm

Octavious wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 11:03 pm
There are several simple solutions to the Irish problem. We'd be quite willing to accept a United Ireland returned to its rightful place as one of the home nations of the UK. Failing that, and in the spirit of compromise, we could probably accept Northern Ireland remaining in the EU as long as the French give us back Calais.

In all seriousness, peterlund, your enthusiasm for commenting on Brexit is matched only by your ignorance. If you have a vaguely intelligent comment to make by all means break the habit of a lifetime and do so, but I won't hold my breath.
Haha! I seem to successfully have touched some "Great" Britain sensitive nerve there, the national pride of mr Octavius and his fellow "Great Britons", who seem to think that the World revolves around the UK and its petty problems.

No it is more like we care about the nice Irish people and how they are affected by the UK chaos...

Octavious
Posts: 920
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Location: The Five Valleys, Gloucestershire
Karma: 648
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#13 Post by Octavious » Wed May 15, 2019 10:28 pm

No, but this thread does revolve around the EU elections rather than the Irish peace process. The clue is in the title. The far right is in second position in the Swedish opinion polls, aren't they?

peterlund
Posts: 645
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:52 pm
Location: Sverige
Karma: 126
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#14 Post by peterlund » Thu May 16, 2019 6:22 am

Yes also here we have plenty of morons, that is true. But they are wrong about most things.

peterlund
Posts: 645
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:52 pm
Location: Sverige
Karma: 126
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#15 Post by peterlund » Thu May 16, 2019 6:25 am

This EU election has much turned into a protest vote against our socialdemocratic government that was formed in January.

peterlund
Posts: 645
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:52 pm
Location: Sverige
Karma: 126
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#16 Post by peterlund » Thu May 16, 2019 6:37 am

Thanks to you the remain opinion here and in the EU as a whole has become stronger than ever. Nice work!

You should vote for the LibDems over there!

Octavious
Posts: 920
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Location: The Five Valleys, Gloucestershire
Karma: 648
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#17 Post by Octavious » Thu May 16, 2019 11:40 am

The EU were always going to make leaving as awkward as possible to dissuade others, which plays into the hands of those arguing for major reform. Some of that reform is needed, but there's an increasingly loud voice from people seemingly after little more than throwing a spanner in the works. The ever greater union line of argument has never looked so vulnerable.

It's somewhat unfortunate that people, including peterlund, have learned nothing from the examples of Brexit and Trump. Calling the other side morons does nothing to convince them to rejoin your side of the argument, and quite a lot to make the more reasonable people on your side question whether that's where they want to be. It is a strategy proven time and time again to fail, yet it remains popular.
1

Senlac
Posts: 158
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:23 pm
Karma: 114

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#18 Post by Senlac » Thu May 16, 2019 2:37 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 11:40 am
The EU were always going to make leaving as awkward as possible to dissuade others, which plays into the hands of those arguing for major reform. Some of that reform is needed, but there's an increasingly loud voice from people seemingly after little more than throwing a spanner in the works. The ever greater union line of argument has never looked so vulnerable.

It's somewhat unfortunate that people, including peterlund, have learned nothing from the examples of Brexit and Trump. Calling the other side morons does nothing to convince them to rejoin your side of the argument, and quite a lot to make the more reasonable people on your side question whether that's where they want to be. It is a strategy proven time and time again to fail, yet it remains popular.
It is strange that lack of analytical thought has pervaded most western societies to the extent that Asia regularly puts us to shame. At one time the ability to perceive a problem (without blaming the “other” side) leading to crafting of an appropriate solution (sometimes requiring compromise) was a normal process in all walks of life (let alone obvious places like international relations).
We’ve become so stupidly adversarial that nonsense, labelling, falsehoods, brinkmanship, braggadocio (plenty of other examples) are now the stock of what used to be intellectual debate.

All political flavours are equally guilty & the results will be forthcoming. I prescribe it to a decline in western civilisation (for lack of other apparent causation). I’d welcome other suggestions...
I might see in my lifetime the complete rise of Asia as the intellectual powerhouse & completely dominant region in this world (as some would say it has been before). If it happens the west only has itself to blame for it’s sudden incompetence.

Octavious
Posts: 920
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Location: The Five Valleys, Gloucestershire
Karma: 648
Contact:

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#19 Post by Octavious » Thu May 16, 2019 2:47 pm

Which Asia are you referring to? I don't think that Modi puts anyone to shame on that basis, and indeed leads the way in falsehood and brinkmanship style of politics you talk about. China remains a dictatorship, and a vast collection of contradictions that looks at one minute exemplary, and in the next a dystopian warning.

Senlac
Posts: 158
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:23 pm
Karma: 114

Re: European Election Night(s)!

#20 Post by Senlac » Thu May 16, 2019 3:15 pm

The ones that come to mind in terms of achieving enviable accomplishments are Japan, China, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea (possibly Vietnam to come) & even India compared to past efforts.
All have their own problems of course but in terms of innovation, quality of manufacturing, maintaining the peace & achieving growing prosperity for the majority of the populace, remarkable economic power recently attained & probably technology advantage still to be apparent.

Sure they are imperfect like anywhere else but look at the comparative positions of USA/Western Europe in say 1950’s to now compared to what Asia has achieved in those same 70 years. I don’t believe their out performing of the West is either luck or temporary. 70 years hence (I won’t be around to see it obviously) but they might have wiped the floor with us & Western opinions about as valued as those currently emanating from bankrupt African states.

Like it or not the world is a competitive place (that we are happily losing on most fronts) & the feeble political discourse of late is just one example of our inability to establish problems & find solutions. It seems to influence almost every area of our endeavours
2

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Senlac and 1 guest