Tiny Hunt I Game Thread

[DoubtingThomas]

Devil's advocate here but Damo is always sporadically all over the place. I honestly feel that he would be less sporadic in this game because the witch QT is open during the day and he can get coaching there...

Why would an open QT imply that he's being coached? I see it as even less likely that he would be actively coached with an open QT than with just a nighttime QT. If there were a deadline on all the coaching that his teammates can do before he gets thrown back to the wolves, it's a lot more pressing and urgent, but if it's open all the time, they can be more reactionary and fix things as they come up instead. Hence, I wouldn't see them trying very hard to coach anyone.

I want to push this saveclaim issue. As well as claiming if you were saved is important so is declaring yourself a no save.

Why? Mafia knows who was saved. The person who was saved knows they were saved. The angel may know who was saved too. Other than townclearing someone, does it actually matter if you know who was saved? What is the purpose of having a townclear right now?

There are a shitload of reasons why the saved may not claim it and your insistence on revealing it anyway instead of putting together an actual case instead of a theory on Vecna is scummy as hell.

i am confused

why are you so adamant on saying mafia will not coach with day QT?

i dont think it's something you would be arguing about and not only would you enver know as a town, it would not really do anything for scum hunting

really odd post

[DoubtingThomas]

Devil's advocate here but Damo is always sporadically all over the place. I honestly feel that he would be less sporadic in this game because the witch QT is open during the day and he can get coaching there...

Why would an open QT imply that he's being coached? I see it as even less likely that he would be actively coached with an open QT than with just a nighttime QT. If there were a deadline on all the coaching that his teammates can do before he gets thrown back to the wolves, it's a lot more pressing and urgent, but if it's open all the time, they can be more reactionary and fix things as they come up instead. Hence, I wouldn't see them trying very hard to coach anyone.

I want to push this saveclaim issue. As well as claiming if you were saved is important so is declaring yourself a no save.

Why? Mafia knows who was saved. The person who was saved knows they were saved. The angel may know who was saved too. Other than townclearing someone, does it actually matter if you know who was saved? What is the purpose of having a townclear right now?

There are a shitload of reasons why the saved may not claim it and your insistence on revealing it anyway instead of putting together an actual case instead of a theory on Vecna is scummy as hell.

i am confused

why are you so adamant on saying mafia will not coach with day QT?

i dont think it's something you would be arguing about and not only would you enver know as a town, it would not really do anything for scum hunting

really odd post

[damo666]

Two observations

1. Ezio has been in hiding since I exposed his scumslip.
2. Damo666 voting people for "joke" reasons, well into D2, is stinky.

I didn't vote for a joke reason. The reason I gave was a joke. Not the vote itself.
As I explained later it was due to my perception of DT's fakery. (His long list catch up posts is making me reconsider however).

[DoubtingThomas]

Prima Facie prob ND scum =3/13, town 10/13

Assume if ND town he did not fail to use his save and further assume he outthought scum and did not use it on Vecna as being too obvious (and Vecna claims no save) then chance of saving anyone else in particular = 1/11.

Let us also assume scum did not target Vecna.

Prob scum hit protected gambler = (1/11)*(1/2) = 1/22

Prob scum hit protected clown = (1/11)*(2/12) = 1/66

Prob ND saved target = (10/13)*(1/11)*(1/11) = .006357

Bit of double counting because ND could have saved protected clown or gambler but this tiny and therefore negligible.

The sum of these 3 probabilities is 0.067 (to 3 dps).

This implies probabilty of a deliberate no NK (and ND town) is (1-0.067-10/13) or roughly 70%. This strikes me as somewhat high. Are scum really that likely to try and confuse us and dispense with a kill?

So either:

ND scum 3/13 (23.0%)
we were very lucky 6.7%
scum were clever (70.3-x)%

or SOMETHING IS FISHY x%

Now what could be fishy? Perhaps ND saved Vecna and Vecna's no claim is lie? Obviously if someone claims Vecna is off the hook. That is why my vote remains on Vecna until someone claims.

this kind of mathematical posts r just red flags beause wolves wanna do this

solve math to look like they r contributing while saying absolutely nothing (like bo pointed out)

didnt teacher do the math gimmick in m37 when he was indeed a wolf??

[damo666]

i didnt lump at all so this is false

It's not false. You didn't lump at all so you didn't lump Vecna.

??? so you should've included me in people who didn't lump vecna?

i voted ND and didnt lump vecna because (evidently) i didnt lump at all

so it's false, right? am i misunderstanding something

Sorry DT you're right. My mistake.

I must start engaging brain before posting!

[DoubtingThomas]

Like look at what damo has said? It's all pretty clearly *trying* to influence and lead town diacussion, but it's also pretty clelarly wrong/useless. Is he townreading people you scumread? Is he trying to pull diacussion off of someone you think should be pressured? Is he effectively pushing the lynch of a townie?
I don't think he's doing any of these things and is therefore not *scummy", just shitty.
Contrast that to jamiet, who created a lynch on a *probably town (pending confirmation) player, and stopped most discussion with his nonsense case. He's also not spouting as much nonsense as he usually does as town and is therefore probably scum.

good point. i still wonder about jamie's motivation for that rampant start on nd wag

[DoubtingThomas]

Also y'all (specifically vecna) are gonna have to tell me if Bo sox is doing something super scummy, because he's successfully sucked my dick enough to make me townread him for the rest of the gsme, pretty much regardless of what else he does.

this is fucked up

but idk if scums would make this kind of post ezio gets many town creds

[DoubtingThomas]

Ezio, what makes you so sure ND was town, exactly?

idk i feel like this post is truly bad

because no one can ever be sure ND was town or mafia

but it def looked like u were sure when u were pushing ND, but now you question Ezio for pulling out a valid point (that your push on ND was a little outta place) but you are using the logic that can also be applied to you as a weapon to attack Ezio's push on you

like no one will ever be sure that a dead person is a town/mafia. that's not the point and it never has to be. the point is your behavior of pushing/starting that wagon was weird and this kinda post really really is hypocritical at best

i dont ever see town making these kind of posts. like the point ezio was mking wasnt even that he was sure ND was town

ND's alignment is besides the point

##Vote Jamiet

[damo666]

Prima Facie prob ND scum =3/13, town 10/13

Assume if ND town he did not fail to use his save and further assume he outthought scum and did not use it on Vecna as being too obvious (and Vecna claims no save) then chance of saving anyone else in particular = 1/11.

Let us also assume scum did not target Vecna.

Prob scum hit protected gambler = (1/11)*(1/2) = 1/22

Prob scum hit protected clown = (1/11)*(2/12) = 1/66

Prob ND saved target = (10/13)*(1/11)*(1/11) = .006357

Bit of double counting because ND could have saved protected clown or gambler but this tiny and therefore negligible.

The sum of these 3 probabilities is 0.067 (to 3 dps).

This implies probabilty of a deliberate no NK (and ND town) is (1-0.067-10/13) or roughly 70%. This strikes me as somewhat high. Are scum really that likely to try and confuse us and dispense with a kill?

So either:

ND scum 3/13 (23.0%)
we were very lucky 6.7%
scum were clever (70.3-x)%

or SOMETHING IS FISHY x%

Now what could be fishy? Perhaps ND saved Vecna and Vecna's no claim is lie? Obviously if someone claims Vecna is off the hook. That is why my vote remains on Vecna until someone claims.

this kind of mathematical posts r just red flags beause wolves wanna do this

solve math to look like they r contributing while saying absolutely nothing (like bo pointed out)

didnt teacher do the math gimmick in m37 when he was indeed a wolf??

It's a completely different game with a very different set up and I thought it worth doing a few sums. There is no denying we were very fortuitous in not getting a N1 NK.

[DoubtingThomas]

Yav - why don't you like the calcs? Because you don't understand?

What! Do you really think these gave us a new information? They only explain why nobody died. Is our win condition guessing how could somebody be saved? No we must find scums not calculations! You only distract us. I will vote you twice: ##vote damo

damo, why did you only point out yav?

i think Jamie, bo sox and maybe another person also pointed out their distaste for your calculation post?

quite wierd for you to only call out yav o n it?

[damo666]

DT do you have an opinion on Squiggs?

Your block of posts causes me to

##UNVOTE

I am torn between Squiggs and Jamie

[damo666]

Yav - why don't you like the calcs? Because you don't understand?

What! Do you really think these gave us a new information? They only explain why nobody died. Is our win condition guessing how could somebody be saved? No we must find scums not calculations! You only distract us. I will vote you twice: ##vote damo

damo, why did you only point out yav?

i think Jamie, bo sox and maybe another person also pointed out their distaste for your calculation post?

quite wierd for you to only call out yav o n it?

I did, later on. You'll come to it.

[DoubtingThomas]

@Bozo why do you think I neglected to mention the two scenarios where the mafia targeted immune targets?
@Jamiet how could I *possibly* be "so sure" ND was town? What are the circumstances? let's look:
1. I'm scum! and knew he was town all along
2. I'm Town PR! and knew he was town after he died
3. I'm just a confident son of a bitch who says bullshit and acts confident about it because that's how you get information.

Just so we're clear to all those who fail to see which one I'm talking about, it's #3. The wagon was shit as I had been explaining to people as it was created, based solely on Jamiet's shitty gut read of a player he always shittily gut reads as scum, literally in every game as every alignment.
I hopped onboard at the end because my scumread of Thomas had been growing towards the later part of the day and seeing him defend ND so strongly made me want to just string em all up, also because of the weird fucking majority lynch thing (please note: I don't trust the judge at all because it smells like a vig and I know what vigs do when they get a shot).

yea these posts are really good for ezio

very different from his d1 where he agve no reasons for his reads

i think i am putting ezio at town

[DoubtingThomas]

DT do you have an opinion on Squiggs?

Your block of posts causes me to

##UNVOTE

I am torn between Squiggs and Jamie

let me read on what squigs did

i think his early d1 was good, but his eod was bad because it seemed like he was all over the place and wanted to just get on ND wagon

also his defense on ezio is like wtf. let me see his d2

[DoubtingThomas]

Then again, looking at the bot, damo's wagon isn't as big as it seems. There's a lot of people, myself included, that seem to be bitching him out without voting for him.

You only distract us.

What do you mean by this, yav?

I would be very surprised if damo is scum, I think we should look to lynch elsewhere.

why?

[DoubtingThomas]

Bozo who are you looking to lynch? Not damo is a good start.

huh??

i am confused at all these defenses on damo

especially because i thought ezio was the one who pushed damo hard d1?

did i miss something? i think damo is a lil scummy as of rn

[DoubtingThomas]

How Ezio obtains information:

1. Confidently spew forth bullshit

2. ?? ?? ??

3. Profit!

this is not proper response to a case being written against you...

[DoubtingThomas]

100% jamiet. The more confidently the better. How else do you do it? Ask subtle questions? Ask obvious questions? Instead seems easier to say things, sometimes obvious, and sometimes terribly dumb, and see who's paying attention.
At this point I think I have meta reads of people who pay at least a little bit of attention as town, but a ton as scum and vice versa. There are also people who become entirely self absorbed as scum, so the key is to say things about as many people as possible and see who responds. I use that data to update my reads of people and act accordingly.

@Bozo, after reading that, now might you understand why I left out some thing pretty obvious in my post you pointed out earlier?

yeah, town imo

[DoubtingThomas]

Would you all look at what Ezio is doing? I think something quite important has just been revealed.

Ezio voted for me, and said he was sure I'm scum because I pushed the lynch on ND who is very probably town.

I questioned Ezio regarding how he could be so sure of ND's alignment. Ezio's response was to state that he was actually just posting "bullshit" to get reactions. However, this does not add up, because the basis for Ezio starting a wagon on me was that I pushed the lynch of town ND. He started a wagon on me for a reason he now brushes off as "bullshit" that he was making up to get reactions. Really?

In fact I think there may be a different explanation.

I think Ezio was confident of ND's alignment because he is a Witch and therefore knows who the town are.

If that is the case, and assuming ND was town after all, then I would offer an apology to ND for being involved in mislynching him. Clearly I would have make a mistake there.

But Ezio has made a bigger mistake. A scumslip, in fact.

##VOTE EZIO

wait i dont think i am understanding this post properly lol

[DoubtingThomas]

I have a feeling that ND was scum and that the remaining two witches are Squigs and DoubtingThomas.

Vote Squigs

My largest townread in this game is now without doubt our lovely BOZO. Every town from the BOZO slot has been a purely town slot. He wasnt afraid to go against the grain on his Thomas read, and his reasoning was in fact pure unadulterated town reasoning. Thomas has felt a little off this game. Almost like he's just trying to get by on his accomplished meta of trying to be a teenage mutant ninja badass.

My vote on squish is because every post he has made so far is feeling way too clean. There is no real outstanding unique type of opinion. It all feels too clinical. Too crafted. Too much fake scummy nonsense of "I have to sound towny" instead of just actually being towny. i might be wrong though, since it does have some towny smell to it, but so far I deem it fake'ish. And there was that weird thing he did where he voted Damo at EOD1, before quickly changing to ND. Almost like he wanted to show us really hard how he really did want to lynch Damo instead of ND. I find this pretty scummy behaviour, regardless of ND's aligntment.

this post is hedgey - something what scums do

for example, the paragraph about bozo.
says, bozo slot has been a purely town slot -- not real read
he wasnt afraid to go against reading Thomas -- uh a lot of people read me scummy, including ezio, bo sox, etc
reasoning is a pure unadulterated town reasoning? what the FUCK does this even mean? stop using words to fluff the fuck out of your town read. give actual content please. none of these are good reasons to town read someone

"Thomas has felt a little off this game. Almost like he's just trying to get by on his accomplished meta of trying to be a teenage mutant ninja badass."

this is not real read. there is no content. he felt a little off. that's all he's saying with a big ass fluff about how i am a mutant ninja or something.

this is literally text book scum post

you know what's really bad about it? scums have harder time having straight thinking processes. he begins the paragraph about town reading bozo. gives little reason. then ends the paragraph about how i am scummy, implying that he wants to town read bozo for scum reading a scummy player. none of these are actual reasons to TOWN read bozo. it just sounds like a fabricated read to scum read me.

it is a poorly drafted paragraph that a scum wrote where he failed to be conclusive about how he wanted to end the paragraph -- did he want to town read bozo or scum read dt? did he give actual reason for either of the choices? not really.

vecna nice job. you have outed. go say you are sorry in the mafia chat

##vote vecna