Tiny Hunt I Game Thread

[DoubtingThomas]

I do apologize for my gibberish in my preceding post, it might have something to do with the whiskey.

"Every post from the BOZO slot has been a purely town post."

Apparently my somewhat inhibited brain has problems with typing the word post

lol scum realized his post was absolute shit

sorry you cant edit posts, scum. you just outed yourself. good job

[DoubtingThomas]

Also, the recent Jamiet posts feel pretty terrible. I do not know yet how to interpret them. They almost feel too shitty to come from town jamiet. And that is a pretty impressive threshold to pass.

Bravo

this is true tho

although,this makes my top two scum read of jamie and vecna less likely to be w/w

fuck

[Jamiet99uk]

Prima Facie prob ND scum =3/13, town 10/13

Assume if ND town he did not fail to use his save and further assume he outthought scum and did not use it on Vecna as being too obvious (and Vecna claims no save) then chance of saving anyone else in particular = 1/11.

Let us also assume scum did not target Vecna.

Prob scum hit protected gambler = (1/11)*(1/2) = 1/22

Prob scum hit protected clown = (1/11)*(2/12) = 1/66

Prob ND saved target = (10/13)*(1/11)*(1/11) = .006357

Bit of double counting because ND could have saved protected clown or gambler but this tiny and therefore negligible.

The sum of these 3 probabilities is 0.067 (to 3 dps).

This implies probabilty of a deliberate no NK (and ND town) is (1-0.067-10/13) or roughly 70%. This strikes me as somewhat high. Are scum really that likely to try and confuse us and dispense with a kill?

So either:

ND scum 3/13 (23.0%)
we were very lucky 6.7%
scum were clever (70.3-x)%

or SOMETHING IS FISHY x%

Now what could be fishy? Perhaps ND saved Vecna and Vecna's no claim is lie? Obviously if someone claims Vecna is off the hook. That is why my vote remains on Vecna until someone claims.

this kind of mathematical posts r just red flags beause wolves wanna do this

solve math to look like they r contributing while saying absolutely nothing (like bo pointed out)

didnt teacher do the math gimmick in m37 when he was indeed a wolf??

That is exactly what I said.

[damo666]

Completely different game set up Jamie.

Why are people so frightened by a bit of arithmetic?

[DoubtingThomas]

Would you all look at what Ezio is doing? I think something quite important has just been revealed.

Ezio voted for me, and said he was sure I'm scum because I pushed the lynch on ND who is very probably town.

I questioned Ezio regarding how he could be so sure of ND's alignment. Ezio's response was to state that he was actually just posting "bullshit" to get reactions. However, this does not add up, because the basis for Ezio starting a wagon on me was that I pushed the lynch of town ND. He started a wagon on me for a reason he now brushes off as "bullshit" that he was making up to get reactions. Really?

In fact I think there may be a different explanation.

I think Ezio was confident of ND's alignment because he is a Witch and therefore knows who the town are.

If that is the case, and assuming ND was town after all, then I would offer an apology to ND for being involved in mislynching him. Clearly I would have make a mistake there.

But Ezio has made a bigger mistake. A scumslip, in fact.

##VOTE EZIO

I just did an iso on Ezio and I think you are taking a few facts and then stringing then together with some hyperbole to make an unrealistic read.
Facts Jamie uses:

• Ezio voted for Jamie
  The reason he gave for voting Jamie was because of Jamie's push on ND
  Ezio said ND is likely town
  Ezio said he did a reaction test surrounding his assumption of NDs alignment.

However, I think you are wrong about one thing:
Ezio's case doesn't require him to be 100% sure of NDs alignment. In this version of mafia, you have to make assumptions because of the lack of information. If we only made cases on things we were sure of, this game wouldn't work. So I don't think Ezio is contradicting himself here. He admitted that he doesn't know NDs alignment 100%, but says it is more likely that ND is town than not, and in that case, you are scummy.

What I don't like about Ezio is his "reaction tests". He could literally post anything he wanted, and if he gets called out about it, he just says, "you passed my reaction test!".

hmm this post is nice

[Squigs44]

Updated Reads:
bo_sox: scum lean
bozo: town
damo: scum lean
DoubtingThomas: town
Ezio: null/scum
Jamie: null/town
rdrivera: null/scum
Squigs: town
Vecna: lean town
worcej: scum lean
y2kjbk: town lean
yavuzovic: null/town

I reread Y2k and like his play. He is putting up new observations that are valid and well thought out. DTs posts lately have been very genuine and unfiltered, so he's getting a town read from me.

[DoubtingThomas]

@Bo - you shredded Bozo for voting Ezio just to get a majority, but then voted ND, and it looks like your reason was just to get a majority. Is this the case, or did you have another reason for scumreading ND? If this is the case, why is it okay for you to do it, but not Bozo?

good

[DoubtingThomas]

Finished catching up.

I think Ezio and Jamiet fight fake as hell. I won't be surprised if it's scum x scum. Both are forcing a case on each other without any actual reasoning. I also don't know how to sort Damo. I first thought his probabilities thing and the Judge are just a pretty bad thinking but NAI, but his failure to understand what everybody is pointing is weird, I don't remember him doing that in other games.

Vecna keeps making the better posts even drunk. And I am not trying to buddy him, he already have a panda.

hmmm w/w? didnt think about it

i disagree with vecna making better posts

that post was terrible

[DoubtingThomas]

wait i thought eod was today?

thought i missed it lol

Why have you not voted yet if you thought today was EOD?

i thought i could have been back by eod but i couldnt

and realized after posting that eod is like today instead

[Vecna]

I have a feeling that ND was scum and that the remaining two witches are Squigs and DoubtingThomas.

Vote Squigs

My largest townread in this game is now without doubt our lovely BOZO. Every town from the BOZO slot has been a purely town slot. He wasnt afraid to go against the grain on his Thomas read, and his reasoning was in fact pure unadulterated town reasoning. Thomas has felt a little off this game. Almost like he's just trying to get by on his accomplished meta of trying to be a teenage mutant ninja badass.

My vote on squish is because every post he has made so far is feeling way too clean. There is no real outstanding unique type of opinion. It all feels too clinical. Too crafted. Too much fake scummy nonsense of "I have to sound towny" instead of just actually being towny. i might be wrong though, since it does have some towny smell to it, but so far I deem it fake'ish. And there was that weird thing he did where he voted Damo at EOD1, before quickly changing to ND. Almost like he wanted to show us really hard how he really did want to lynch Damo instead of ND. I find this pretty scummy behaviour, regardless of ND's aligntment.

this post is hedgey - something what scums do

for example, the paragraph about bozo.
says, bozo slot has been a purely town slot -- not real read
he wasnt afraid to go against reading Thomas -- uh a lot of people read me scummy, including ezio, bo sox, etc
reasoning is a pure unadulterated town reasoning? what the FUCK does this even mean? stop using words to fluff the fuck out of your town read. give actual content please. none of these are good reasons to town read someone

"Thomas has felt a little off this game. Almost like he's just trying to get by on his accomplished meta of trying to be a teenage mutant ninja badass."

this is not real read. there is no content. he felt a little off. that's all he's saying with a big ass fluff about how i am a mutant ninja or something.

this is literally text book scum post

you know what's really bad about it? scums have harder time having straight thinking processes. he begins the paragraph about town reading bozo. gives little reason. then ends the paragraph about how i am scummy, implying that he wants to town read bozo for scum reading a scummy player. none of these are actual reasons to TOWN read bozo. it just sounds like a fabricated read to scum read me.

it is a poorly drafted paragraph that a scum wrote where he failed to be conclusive about how he wanted to end the paragraph -- did he want to town read bozo or scum read dt? did he give actual reason for either of the choices? not really.

vecna nice job. you have outed. go say you are sorry in the mafia chat

##vote vecna

Dude, this is way too wordy for an omgus, you need to learn how to do it properly

[Ezio]

Thomas good reads and analysis. I appreciate you scumread Vecna, but there's no way he's going to get a majority on him today as too many people (including me) townread him ATM. Isn't your vote better placed on Jamiet, whom you also scumread, to put him at 2 and only put him 1 behind the leading wagon?

[Vecna]

Also, the recent Jamiet posts feel pretty terrible. I do not know yet how to interpret them. They almost feel too shitty to come from town jamiet. And that is a pretty impressive threshold to pass.

Bravo

this is true tho

although,this makes my top two scum read of jamie and vecna less likely to be w/w

fuck

This post uses the EXACT type of argumentation that you complained about in the previous post.

Which makes me think you dont actually care about the way of how I made the argument, but just about what the argument is.

[DoubtingThomas]

I think it is time to announce that I survived the NK attempt N1.

Ah crap, why did it have to be the obv-town guy

i do not think he was obv town

[DoubtingThomas]

I have a feeling that ND was scum and that the remaining two witches are Squigs and DoubtingThomas.

Vote Squigs

My largest townread in this game is now without doubt our lovely BOZO. Every town from the BOZO slot has been a purely town slot. He wasnt afraid to go against the grain on his Thomas read, and his reasoning was in fact pure unadulterated town reasoning. Thomas has felt a little off this game. Almost like he's just trying to get by on his accomplished meta of trying to be a teenage mutant ninja badass.

My vote on squish is because every post he has made so far is feeling way too clean. There is no real outstanding unique type of opinion. It all feels too clinical. Too crafted. Too much fake scummy nonsense of "I have to sound towny" instead of just actually being towny. i might be wrong though, since it does have some towny smell to it, but so far I deem it fake'ish. And there was that weird thing he did where he voted Damo at EOD1, before quickly changing to ND. Almost like he wanted to show us really hard how he really did want to lynch Damo instead of ND. I find this pretty scummy behaviour, regardless of ND's aligntment.

this post is hedgey - something what scums do

for example, the paragraph about bozo.
says, bozo slot has been a purely town slot -- not real read
he wasnt afraid to go against reading Thomas -- uh a lot of people read me scummy, including ezio, bo sox, etc
reasoning is a pure unadulterated town reasoning? what the FUCK does this even mean? stop using words to fluff the fuck out of your town read. give actual content please. none of these are good reasons to town read someone

"Thomas has felt a little off this game. Almost like he's just trying to get by on his accomplished meta of trying to be a teenage mutant ninja badass."

this is not real read. there is no content. he felt a little off. that's all he's saying with a big ass fluff about how i am a mutant ninja or something.

this is literally text book scum post

you know what's really bad about it? scums have harder time having straight thinking processes. he begins the paragraph about town reading bozo. gives little reason. then ends the paragraph about how i am scummy, implying that he wants to town read bozo for scum reading a scummy player. none of these are actual reasons to TOWN read bozo. it just sounds like a fabricated read to scum read me.

it is a poorly drafted paragraph that a scum wrote where he failed to be conclusive about how he wanted to end the paragraph -- did he want to town read bozo or scum read dt? did he give actual reason for either of the choices? not really.

vecna nice job. you have outed. go say you are sorry in the mafia chat

##vote vecna

Dude, this is way too wordy for an omgus, you need to learn how to do it properly

if you think that's OMGUS you need to go back to 2nd grade English class

I am pointing out how poorly constructed your paragraph was and how a scum comes with that kinda shit

if you really want to shade me why don't you try, "i was too drunk when i wrote that"

it will work better, trust me

[Vecna]

He became obv-town when he stuck his neck out of the herd of camels and actually had accurate reasoning for being suspicious about you, while everyone was droning how your long-winded post just quoting everything Ezio had done was oh so towny.

[DoubtingThomas]

Also, the recent Jamiet posts feel pretty terrible. I do not know yet how to interpret them. They almost feel too shitty to come from town jamiet. And that is a pretty impressive threshold to pass.

Bravo

this is true tho

although,this makes my top two scum read of jamie and vecna less likely to be w/w

fuck

This post uses the EXACT type of argumentation that you complained about in the previous post.

Which makes me think you dont actually care about the way of how I made the argument, but just about what the argument is.

first of all,

i pointed out why jamiet's posts were terrible before even reading ur post

second,

"They almost feel too shitty to come from town jamiet. And that is a pretty impressive threshold to pass." this is different than

"bozo is town for sticking up to his read on dt" -> "dt is scummy"

third,

"this is true tho" kinda mostly applied to "and that is a pretty impressive threshold to pass." lmao.

[DoubtingThomas]

He became obv-town when he stuck his neck out of the herd of camels and actually had accurate reasoning for being suspicious about you, while everyone was droning how your long-winded post just quoting everything Ezio had done was oh so towny.

that does not make him obv town

i am pretty sure ezio and bo were scum readin gme pretty hard, until i started firing back at ezio then maybe he backed off, or at least they both began voting for nd to make ezio live

[Vecna]

Actually, im of the opinion that unless its a newbie, the scum-posts are always attempting to be way more concise and logical in their reasoning. It comes inherently because theyre afraid to be caught in a bad judgement of whatll appear towny to the average person.

Another thing that scum often do? Attack other people based on how theyre forming an argument, trying to pull a "gotcha" on a person.

I couldnt care less what you think about the post I made yesterday. I think its beautiful.

[DoubtingThomas]

Thomas good reads and analysis. I appreciate you scumread Vecna, but there's no way he's going to get a majority on him today as too many people (including me) townread him ATM. Isn't your vote better placed on Jamiet, whom you also scumread, to put him at 2 and only put him 1 behind the leading wagon?

i am thinking about it

jamie still didnt do much to respond to me yet

which is weird

is he just trying to avoid my posts?

[DoubtingThomas]

Actually, im of the opinion that unless its a newbie, the scum-posts are always attempting to be way more concise and logical in their reasoning. It comes inherently because theyre afraid to be caught in a bad judgement of whatll appear towny to the average person.

Another thing that scum often do? Attack other people based on how theyre forming an argument, trying to pull a "gotcha" on a person.

I couldnt care less what you think about the post I made yesterday. I think its beautiful.

well your opinion sucks

who are your top 3 scum reads